基于第三方市场的中国与东盟劳动密集型产业竞争关系研究
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摘要
国际贸易一直以来都被认为是经济发展的发动机,并总是在国民经济中扮演重要的角色,尤其我国的对外贸易一直以来比国民经济更快的速度发展,为我国的经济发展作出了重要的贡献。本文的研究对象为基于第三方市场的中国与东盟国家劳动密集型产业的竞争与合作关系。首先,针对国内外研究现状与问题,本文考察了有关出口竞争的理论与方法;其次,分别从出口总量、出口份额以及主要出口产品三个方面初步认识中国与东盟国家之间的竞争关系;然后,在第三部分中从结构竞争角度考察这种竞争关系,即用出口结构相似程度方法研究。但是,该方法反映的问题比较单一,只能反映国别之间出口总体的相似性。所以,我们结合文章需要用改进后的显性比较优势指数分析各国主要竞争的产品及优势产品,然后以这些指数为标准,用本文偏离—份额分析法考察这种结构竞争关系,该方法很好地弥补了前面分析的有限性,能动态考察各国出口产品结构的变化,还能动态分析出各国之间的结构相似与竞争关系;文章还运用了显性比较优势指数来考察中国与东盟国家的竞争关系,分析了中国与东盟各主要国家间的竞争关系;最后,我们得出了中国与东盟国家之间存在竞争关系,不过竞争程度并不是很高的一些基本结论,并针对产生这一结论的原因进行了细致的分析,然后,我们在布兰德-克鲁格曼的产业内贸易模型的基础上进行一定的拓展,通过战略贸易理论来对中国与东盟的劳动密集型产业进行了相应的理论推导及分析。我们发现竞争的主要原因在于中国与东盟相似的发展水平和地理条件;针对这一原因与结论,我们提出了要调整中国与东盟之间的产业结构,加强同一层次的产业互补,发展产业内贸易以及加强区域合作的建议。
International trade has always been considered as the engine of economic development, and plays an important role in national economy. The speed of the development of China International Trade is faster than that of national economy, so China International Trade has made great contribution to economic development. The research objective of this article is export competition analysis of labor–intensive industry between China and ASEAN in the third market. First, according to the present domestic and foreign research situation and the question, this article analyzed relative export competition theory and methods; Next, separately from three aspects analysis including total export quantity, the export share as well as mainly export product initially to know the competition relations between China and the ASEAN countries; Then, in the third part, we analyze this kind of competition relations from the perspective of structure competition, such analysis which are based on method of export structure similarity degree. But, this method reflects some simple problems while it can only reflect general similarity of export between nations. Therefore, related to the need of article do we utilize the improved RCA index to analyze mainly competitive product and the superior product of various countries, then according to these indexes, to analyze this kind of structure competition relations with innovated shift-share method on this article, which has well made up the limitation of previous methods, and can dynamically analyze structure variation of export product for various countries, and also can dynamically analyze the structure similarity and competition relations between the various countries; The fourth part of this article is to analyze competition relations between China and ASEAN from the revealed competitive advantage, also to study the relationship between China and ASEAN; Finally, we have fundamentally concluded the competition relations and main competition products between China and different ASEAN countries at different time, simultaneously according to this conclusion and reason to carefully analyze. We use the Brand-Krugman intra-industry trade model to explain the relationship between China and ASEAN. We discovered that the main reason that lead to competition are lay in similar developing level and geography condition of China and ASEAN, based on which we proposed some suggestion including adjusting industrial structure between China and ASEAN, strengthening industrial supplementary belonging to identical industrial level, developing industry trade as well as strengthening the region cooperation.
International trade has always been considered as the engine of economic development, and plays an important role in national economy. The speed of the development of China International Trade is faster than that of national economy, so China International Trade has made great contribution to economic development. The research objective of this article is export competition analysis of labor–intensive industry between China and ASEAN in the third market. First, according to the present domestic and foreign research situation and the question, this article analyzed relative export competition theory and methods; Next, separately from three aspects analysis including total export quantity, the export share as well as mainly export product initially to know the competition relations between China and the ASEAN countries; Then, in the third part, we analyze this kind of competition relations from the perspective of structure competition, such analysis which are based on method of export structure similarity degree. But, this method reflects some simple problems while it can only reflect general similarity of export between nations. Therefore, related to the need of article do we utilize the improved RCA index to analyze mainly competitive product and the superior product of various countries, then according to these indexes, to analyze this kind of structure competition relations with innovated shift-share method on this article, which has well made up the limitation of previous methods, and can dynamically analyze structure variation of export product for various countries, and also can dynamically analyze the structure similarity and competition relations between the various countries; The fourth part of this article is to analyze competition relations between China and ASEAN from the revealed competitive advantage, also to study the relationship between China and ASEAN; Finally, we have fundamentally concluded the competition relations and main competition products between China and different ASEAN countries at different time, simultaneously according to this conclusion and reason to carefully analyze. We use the Brand-Krugman intra-industry trade model to explain the relationship between China and ASEAN. We discovered that the main reason that lead to competition are lay in similar developing level and geography condition of China and ASEAN, based on which we proposed some suggestion including adjusting industrial structure between China and ASEAN, strengthening industrial supplementary belonging to identical industrial level, developing industry trade as well as strengthening the region cooperation.
引文
①于光远.经济大词典[M].上海:上海辞书出版社,1992:469,1972.
②新帕尔格雷夫经济学大词典[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1996:577.
③陈同仇,薛荣久.国际贸易[M].北京:对外经济贸易大学出版社,1997,(1):50-58.
①赫尔普曼,克鲁格曼.市场结构和对外贸易[M].上海:上海三联书店,1993:15-21.
②吴维库.企业竞争力提升战略[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2002:15-16.
①张晓文,韩培.聚焦企业的力量—企业竞争力评价理论与方法研究综述[J].企业管理,2002,(12):22-28.
①迈克尔·波特.国家竞争优势[M].北京:华夏出版社,2002,50-53.
②迈克尔·波特.国家竞争优势[M].北京:华夏出版社,2002,80-94
①孙笑丹.中国与东盟农产品出口结构比较[J].中国农村经济,2003(7):50.
①汪斌.东亚工业化浪潮中的产业结构研究-兼论中国参与东亚国际分工和产业结构调整[M].杭州:杭州大学出版社,1997:312-317.
①许统生.布兰德—克鲁格曼产业内贸易模型及扩展[J].世界经济,2000.
陈建军,肖晨明.中国与东盟主要国家贸易互补性研究[J].世界经济研究,2004,(8): 22-28.
陈同仇,薛荣久.国际贸易[M].北京:对外经济贸易大学出版社,1997,(1):50-58.
陈雯.东盟自由贸易区区内贸易的产业内贸易研究[J].世界经济研究,2003,(1): 32-37.
崔功豪,魏清泉,陈宗兴.区域分析与规划[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1999:64-72.
D·洛伦坟.地区间贸易和太平详合作:问题与前景.载于罗肇鸿,陈润和.中国与东盟国家经济
关系:中国与东盟产业结构调整[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,1995: 45-46.
E·拉斯马森.从美国的角度看亚太经济前景.载于罗肇鸿,陈润和.中国与东盟国家经济关系:中国与东盟产业结构调整[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,1995: 44-45.
方福前.中国出口快速增长的原因与效应分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,2005,(10):12-17.
赫尔普曼,克鲁格曼.市场结构和对外贸易[M].上海:上海三联书店,1993:15-21.
姜书竹,张旭昆.中国与东盟贸易关系及贸易竞争力的实证研究[J].浙江学刊, 2004,(2):176-179.
江斌.国际区域产业结构分析导论——一个一般理论及其对中国的应用分析[M].上海:上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,2001.
李雨时.中国对外贸易快速增长的原因及影响[J].中国对外贸易,2005,(6):72-76.
李晓.论东亚区域产业循环机制[J].世界经济,1998,(3):26-31.
迈克尔·波特.国家竞争优势[M].北京:华夏出版社,2002,50-94.
曲凤杰.更加灵活多样的机制架构——中国东盟自由贸易区框架内容研究[J].国际贸易,2002,(9):21-26.
史智宇.中国与东盟国家的出口相似性比较[J].亚太经济,2004,(2):84-87.
孙笑丹.中国与东盟国家农产品出口结构比较[J].中国农村经济,2003,(7):49-59.
唐世平,周小兵.东盟-中国-日本的合作及东亚的未来[J].国际经济评论,2001,(11):19-24.
唐文琳,范祚军.中国——东盟双边贸易结构分析与政策建议[J].中国流通经济. 2005,(7):22-25.
吴维库.企业竞争力提升战略[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2002:15-16.
王娟.中国—东盟产业内贸易发展趋势的实证分析[J].东南亚纵横,2004,(6):33-37.
王允贵.东亚金融危机成因的新反思[J].国际经济评论,2001,(5):40-45.
魏燕慎.面向21世纪东亚地区的贸易扩张、资本流动与产业结构调整趋势[J].世界经济,1996,(6):14-19.
吴建伟.国际间产业竞争与市场容量[M].上海:上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1999.
汪斌.东亚工业化浪潮中的产业结构研究—兼论中国参与东亚国际分工和产业结构调整[M].杭州:杭州大学出版社,1997.
肖晨明.中国与东盟主要国家贸易竞争性和互补性比较研究:一个对合成谬误论的检验[D], 2004:15-20.
于光远.经济大词典[M].上海:上海辞书出版社,1992:469,1972.
于津平.中国与东亚主要国家和地区间的比较优势与贸易互补性[J].世界经济,2003,(5):33-40.
张晓文,韩培.聚焦企业的力量——企业竞争力评价理论与方法研究综述[J].企业管理, 2002,(12):22-28.
赵春明,李丽红.论中国与东盟四国的产业结构及贸易关系[M].现代国琢关系,2002,(2):41-47.
Bender, Siegfried and Kui-Wai Li.Trade and Comparative Advantage of Asia and Latin America Manufactured Exports, 2001.
Das, Dilip. Changing Comparative Advantage and the Changing Composition of Asian Exports [J].The World Economy, 1998, (21):121-140.
Dixon, P.B, J.Menon. Measures of intra-industry trade as indicators of factor market disruption [J]. CREDIT Research Paper, 1995.
Harvey Cutler, David J.Berri, Terutomo Ozawa. Market Recycling in Labor-intensive Goods, Flying-geese Style: An Empirical Analysis of East Asian Exports to The U.S. [J]. Journal of Asian Economics, 2003, (1):35-50.
Hill, Hal and Phillips, Prue. Trade is a Two-Way Exchange: Rising Import Penetration in East Asia's Export Economies[J].The World Economy,1993, (16): 687-698.
Holst, David Roland, Weiss, John. ASEAN and China Export Rivals or Partners in Regional Growth [J] .The World Economy, 2004, (27): 1255-1274.
John M. Letiche. Lessons from the Euro Zone for the East Asian Economies [J] .Journal of Asian Economics, 2000,(3):275-300.
Kirkpatrick, Colin. Regionalization, Regionalism and East Asian Economic Cooperation [J] .The World Economy,1994,(17):191-202.
Leu, Gwo-Jiun.Changing Comparative Advantage in East Asia Economics [J]. Nanyang Technological University. Working Paper, 1998.
Moore, Lynden. The Competitive Position of Asian Producers of Textiles and Clothing in the US Market [J] .The World Economy, 1995, (18):583-602.
Park. The Little Dragons and Structural Change in Pacific Asia [J]. The World Economy,1989,(12):125-161.
Suthiphand, Chirathivat. ASEAN–China Free Trade Area: background, implications and future development [J] .Journal of Asian Economics, 2002, (5): 671-686.
Wu Friedrich, Keong Puah Kok. Research Report - Foreign Direct Investment to China and Southeast Asia: Has ASEAN Been Losing Out? [J]. Journal of Asian business, 2003, (1): 18-38.
Wang, Z. The Impact of China's WTO Entry on the World Labor-intensive Export Market: A Recursive Dynamic CGE Analysis [J] .The Economy, 1999, (22):379-406.
Yue.Changjun.Comparative Advantage, Exchange Rate and Exports in China, 2001.
Yang, Yongzheng.China's textile and clothing exports: changing international comparative advantage and its policy implication [J]. Asia pacific school of economics and management. Working paper, 1999.
②新帕尔格雷夫经济学大词典[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1996:577.
③陈同仇,薛荣久.国际贸易[M].北京:对外经济贸易大学出版社,1997,(1):50-58.
①赫尔普曼,克鲁格曼.市场结构和对外贸易[M].上海:上海三联书店,1993:15-21.
②吴维库.企业竞争力提升战略[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2002:15-16.
①张晓文,韩培.聚焦企业的力量—企业竞争力评价理论与方法研究综述[J].企业管理,2002,(12):22-28.
①迈克尔·波特.国家竞争优势[M].北京:华夏出版社,2002,50-53.
②迈克尔·波特.国家竞争优势[M].北京:华夏出版社,2002,80-94
①孙笑丹.中国与东盟农产品出口结构比较[J].中国农村经济,2003(7):50.
①汪斌.东亚工业化浪潮中的产业结构研究-兼论中国参与东亚国际分工和产业结构调整[M].杭州:杭州大学出版社,1997:312-317.
①许统生.布兰德—克鲁格曼产业内贸易模型及扩展[J].世界经济,2000.
陈建军,肖晨明.中国与东盟主要国家贸易互补性研究[J].世界经济研究,2004,(8): 22-28.
陈同仇,薛荣久.国际贸易[M].北京:对外经济贸易大学出版社,1997,(1):50-58.
陈雯.东盟自由贸易区区内贸易的产业内贸易研究[J].世界经济研究,2003,(1): 32-37.
崔功豪,魏清泉,陈宗兴.区域分析与规划[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1999:64-72.
D·洛伦坟.地区间贸易和太平详合作:问题与前景.载于罗肇鸿,陈润和.中国与东盟国家经济
关系:中国与东盟产业结构调整[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,1995: 45-46.
E·拉斯马森.从美国的角度看亚太经济前景.载于罗肇鸿,陈润和.中国与东盟国家经济关系:中国与东盟产业结构调整[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,1995: 44-45.
方福前.中国出口快速增长的原因与效应分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,2005,(10):12-17.
赫尔普曼,克鲁格曼.市场结构和对外贸易[M].上海:上海三联书店,1993:15-21.
姜书竹,张旭昆.中国与东盟贸易关系及贸易竞争力的实证研究[J].浙江学刊, 2004,(2):176-179.
江斌.国际区域产业结构分析导论——一个一般理论及其对中国的应用分析[M].上海:上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,2001.
李雨时.中国对外贸易快速增长的原因及影响[J].中国对外贸易,2005,(6):72-76.
李晓.论东亚区域产业循环机制[J].世界经济,1998,(3):26-31.
迈克尔·波特.国家竞争优势[M].北京:华夏出版社,2002,50-94.
曲凤杰.更加灵活多样的机制架构——中国东盟自由贸易区框架内容研究[J].国际贸易,2002,(9):21-26.
史智宇.中国与东盟国家的出口相似性比较[J].亚太经济,2004,(2):84-87.
孙笑丹.中国与东盟国家农产品出口结构比较[J].中国农村经济,2003,(7):49-59.
唐世平,周小兵.东盟-中国-日本的合作及东亚的未来[J].国际经济评论,2001,(11):19-24.
唐文琳,范祚军.中国——东盟双边贸易结构分析与政策建议[J].中国流通经济. 2005,(7):22-25.
吴维库.企业竞争力提升战略[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2002:15-16.
王娟.中国—东盟产业内贸易发展趋势的实证分析[J].东南亚纵横,2004,(6):33-37.
王允贵.东亚金融危机成因的新反思[J].国际经济评论,2001,(5):40-45.
魏燕慎.面向21世纪东亚地区的贸易扩张、资本流动与产业结构调整趋势[J].世界经济,1996,(6):14-19.
吴建伟.国际间产业竞争与市场容量[M].上海:上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1999.
汪斌.东亚工业化浪潮中的产业结构研究—兼论中国参与东亚国际分工和产业结构调整[M].杭州:杭州大学出版社,1997.
肖晨明.中国与东盟主要国家贸易竞争性和互补性比较研究:一个对合成谬误论的检验[D], 2004:15-20.
于光远.经济大词典[M].上海:上海辞书出版社,1992:469,1972.
于津平.中国与东亚主要国家和地区间的比较优势与贸易互补性[J].世界经济,2003,(5):33-40.
张晓文,韩培.聚焦企业的力量——企业竞争力评价理论与方法研究综述[J].企业管理, 2002,(12):22-28.
赵春明,李丽红.论中国与东盟四国的产业结构及贸易关系[M].现代国琢关系,2002,(2):41-47.
Bender, Siegfried and Kui-Wai Li.Trade and Comparative Advantage of Asia and Latin America Manufactured Exports, 2001.
Das, Dilip. Changing Comparative Advantage and the Changing Composition of Asian Exports [J].The World Economy, 1998, (21):121-140.
Dixon, P.B, J.Menon. Measures of intra-industry trade as indicators of factor market disruption [J]. CREDIT Research Paper, 1995.
Harvey Cutler, David J.Berri, Terutomo Ozawa. Market Recycling in Labor-intensive Goods, Flying-geese Style: An Empirical Analysis of East Asian Exports to The U.S. [J]. Journal of Asian Economics, 2003, (1):35-50.
Hill, Hal and Phillips, Prue. Trade is a Two-Way Exchange: Rising Import Penetration in East Asia's Export Economies[J].The World Economy,1993, (16): 687-698.
Holst, David Roland, Weiss, John. ASEAN and China Export Rivals or Partners in Regional Growth [J] .The World Economy, 2004, (27): 1255-1274.
John M. Letiche. Lessons from the Euro Zone for the East Asian Economies [J] .Journal of Asian Economics, 2000,(3):275-300.
Kirkpatrick, Colin. Regionalization, Regionalism and East Asian Economic Cooperation [J] .The World Economy,1994,(17):191-202.
Leu, Gwo-Jiun.Changing Comparative Advantage in East Asia Economics [J]. Nanyang Technological University. Working Paper, 1998.
Moore, Lynden. The Competitive Position of Asian Producers of Textiles and Clothing in the US Market [J] .The World Economy, 1995, (18):583-602.
Park. The Little Dragons and Structural Change in Pacific Asia [J]. The World Economy,1989,(12):125-161.
Suthiphand, Chirathivat. ASEAN–China Free Trade Area: background, implications and future development [J] .Journal of Asian Economics, 2002, (5): 671-686.
Wu Friedrich, Keong Puah Kok. Research Report - Foreign Direct Investment to China and Southeast Asia: Has ASEAN Been Losing Out? [J]. Journal of Asian business, 2003, (1): 18-38.
Wang, Z. The Impact of China's WTO Entry on the World Labor-intensive Export Market: A Recursive Dynamic CGE Analysis [J] .The Economy, 1999, (22):379-406.
Yue.Changjun.Comparative Advantage, Exchange Rate and Exports in China, 2001.
Yang, Yongzheng.China's textile and clothing exports: changing international comparative advantage and its policy implication [J]. Asia pacific school of economics and management. Working paper, 1999.