中国沿海地区风暴潮灾害综合脆弱性评估
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摘要
我国是全球少数几个同时受台风风暴潮和温带风暴潮危害的国家之一,风暴潮灾害一年四季、从南到北均可发生,损失严重。尤其是在全球变暖背景下,热带气旋、风暴潮的发生频率和强度将会增加,沿海地区的灾害风险会进一步加大。而脆弱性研究被一致认为是防灾减灾中人类能够有所建树的领域。为降低自然灾害的影响,减轻承灾体的脆弱性是最为直接和有效的方法。在国家自然科学基金重点项目“沿海城市自然灾害风险应急预案情景分析”和上海市科技启明星计划“基于情景分析的上海市自然灾害风险评估与区划研究”的资助下,获取了大量文献资料与数据,在借鉴国内外风暴潮灾害脆弱性研究进展结果的基础上,对我国沿海大尺度范围内风暴潮灾害的自然脆弱性、社会脆弱性及综合脆弱性进行了分析与评估,辨识了风暴潮灾害脆弱性的空间分异与主导因素,为不同区域制定减轻风暴潮灾害脆弱性的对策提供了科学的依据。主要的研究结果如下：
(1)基于我国沿海地区1990-2009年间风暴潮灾害的历史灾情数据,借鉴CVI的评估思路,构建了沿海省区风暴潮灾害自然脆弱性评估指数SSVI,以此对沿海11个省区进行了评估与相对脆弱性区划。通过研究发现：SSVI存在明显的年际变化,尤其是21世纪最初十年的后半段(2005-2009年)变化更大,与全球气候变化背景下,极端天气、气候事件发生的频率和强度呈增加趋势有关；以五年为时段的SSVI,1990-1994和1995-1999年间明显大于2000-2004和2005-2009年间,与同时期我国频繁的热带气旋活动密切相关。空间上,SSVI最大值、5年及20年总和都表现出同样的规律,高与较高等级脆弱性基本为长江口以南的东南沿海地区的省市,低与较低等级脆弱性多为我国北部沿海省市,而中等级脆弱性的省市空间分布变化较大。分析还发现,受灾人口、受灾农作物面积、受灾水产养殖面积、毁损房屋以及直接经济损失等因素对风暴潮灾害自然脆弱性贡献最大。
(2)在自然脆弱性评估的基础上,采用指标体系和主成分分析方法,选取了60个指标,对53个沿海的地级市行政单元进行了风暴潮灾害社会脆弱性评估,提取出8个主成分,归纳为科技投入、基础设施与信息、服务、地区财富、社会保障、人口、城市化、环境、职业和发展,共解释了原有指标84.92%的变化。采用加法模型,计算出沿各地级市单元的社会脆弱性得分,并根据标准差分出代表风暴潮灾害社会脆弱性低、较低、中等、较高和高五个相对等级水平,同时进行了等级区划。结果显示：绝大部分的沿海地市处于中等脆弱性水平；脆弱性低的上海、广州、天津和深圳四个地市,科技投入、信息化水平、基础设施及地区财富几个主成分代表的变量对社会脆弱性贡献大,显示出这些地市具有很强的灾害吸收力与恢复力；较高社会脆弱性的地级市行政单元主要分布在我国的东南沿海(广东、广西与海南),人口、城市化与发展几个主成分对脆弱性的贡献较大；辽宁盘锦市的社会脆弱性为高等级,职业主成分对其贡献最大。
(3)将各省区SSVI值分别赋予其所包含的沿海地级市行政单元；再通过风暴潮灾害自然、社会脆弱性三种不同的权重组合,利用地方脆弱性模型(HOP)对沿海53个地级市单元综合脆弱性的相对水平进行了评估与区划。结果显示：三种权重组合下的综合脆弱性水平,总体都呈现出东南沿海高于北方沿海的趋势,并且自然、社会与综合三类脆弱性表现一致。浙江、福建与广西三省区的地市级单元,在自然脆弱性权重占优时综合脆弱性大多为中等,社会脆弱性权重虽减小,却起到较大调和作用；说明虽然这类地区受风暴潮灾害影响较大即自然脆弱性较高,但社会经济因素的防灾减灾效应更明显。广东省的各沿海地级市单元三类脆弱性等级一般都处于高水平；除个别地市如广州、深圳的社会经济因素防灾减灾效应明显外,大部分地级市不明显,与其受到风暴潮灾害影响的频率高有密切关系,即自然脆弱性的影响更大一些。山东、辽宁的地级市单元,除大连、青岛表现了较为明显的社会经济因素减灾效应外,其他地级市基本都表现出随权重占优类型的脆弱性变化趋势；一方面说明社会经济因素的防灾减灾效应,也与其是我国受风暴潮灾害另一个严重区域有关。天津与上海两市,三类脆弱性等级都属于低等级；与其受风暴潮灾害影响相对较小有关,同时更与其很强的社会经济因素防灾减灾效应密切相关。
本研究侧重在大尺度空间上对我国沿海地区风暴潮灾害脆弱性进行系统分析、综合评估与区划。利用基于历史灾情的数理统计方法与指标体系的主成分分析方法,将自然脆弱性、社会脆弱性与综合脆弱性结合在一起,探讨了其时空变化规律与影响因素等方面的内容。但要切实有效地开展风暴潮的防灾减灾,还需要进行更加深入、细致的研究,比如在社区尺度上开展风暴潮灾害脆弱性分析与评估等,为制定行之有效和针对性的减轻脆弱性对策提供科学依据。
China is one of few countries in the world that is influenced by tropical storm surge and extratropical storm surge at the same time. Storm surge disasters could occur throughout the year, from north to south with serious loss. Especially under the context of global warming, the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and storm surges will increase, which leads to increasing risks of disasters further in coastal areas. It is agreed that vulnerability studies is the field that human beings could accomplish something to disaster prevention and mitigation, to reduce the impacts of natural disasters. Supported by the Foundation of National Natural Science of China "Scenario Analysis of Emergency Responses to Natural Disasters Risk in Coastal Cities" and "the Shanghai Youth Science and Technology Venus Program", a large number of documents and data collected, and based on the progress of storm surge disaster vulnerability research home and abroad, physical vulnerability, social vulnerability and comprehensive vulnerability of storm surge disasters are analyzed and assessed on a large scale in the coastal regions of China. It's spatial differentiation and dominant factors are identified, which provides a scientific basis for developing countermeasures to reduce the vulnerability of storm surge disasters for different regions. The research findings are as follows:
(1) The storm surge disaster vulnerability index (Storm Surge Vulnerability Index, SSVI) is built by learning form the assessment method of Coastal Vulnerability Index (Coastal Vulnerability Index, CVT). According to the storm surge disaster loss data from1990to2009of eleven provinces in the coastal region, physical vulnerability of storm surge is assessed, and a relative vulnerability zoning then divided. The results show that:there is a large inter-annual variation of the SSVI, especially during the later of the first ten year of21st century (2005-2009), which is related to the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events under the condition of global climate change; the SSVI of each five years, it is larger from1990to1994and1995to1999than from2000to2004and2005to2009, and this is closely related to the frequent activity of tropical cyclone with the same period. Spatially, the maximum, the total SSVI of five years and twenty years have the same rules, which are the high and higher level of physical vulnerability are mainly distributed in southeastern coastal provinces, the low and lower level, in northern coastal provinces, respectively, while distribution of the middle level changes greatly. The analysis also found that the contribution of the affected populations, the affected crop area, the affected aquaculture area, housing damage and direct economic loss are large to the physical vulnerability of storm surge disasters.
(2) On the basis of physical vulnerability assessment, sixty indicators are selected as an index, and then the principal component analysis is used to assess the social vulnerability of storm surge disasters of the fifty-three cities along the coast. Eight principal factors are extracted as technology investments、infrastructure and information、services, region wealth, social security, population, urbanization, environment, occupation and development, which explained84.92% of the variance of the original indicators. Additive model is used to calculate the social vulnerability score of each city, and five relative levels are divided according to the standard deviation on behalf of low, lower, medium, higher, and high level, then regionalization. The results show that:most of the coastal cities are in the medium vulnerability level; Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin and Shenzhen are the four cities with the low level of social vulnerability, and the indicators represent technology investments, information technology level, infrastructure and regional wealth have larger contributions, which indicates a strong disaster absorption and resilience; cities with higher level social vulnerability are mainly located in the southeast coast of China, they are Guangdong and Hainan Province and Guangxi Zhuang Nationality Autonomous, the principal factors of population, urbanization and development are main contributors; Panjin City of Liaoning Province has the high level vulnerability, and occupation is the biggest devotee.
(3) Firstly, assigned SSVI value of each province to the coastal cities they contains respectively; then three kinds of weight combination of physical and social vulnerability conduct to evaluate the relative comprehensive vulnerability level of each city using the Hazards-of-Places Model, and regionalize. Here are the results:the comprehensive vulnerability level has the same trend under three kinds of different weight combination that is the southeast higher than northern coastal cities, and the physical, the social and the comprehensive vulnerability are in consistence. The composite vulnerability level are mostly moderate while the physical vulnerability weight dominated in the coastal cities of Zhejiang, Guangxi and Fujian, which shows a larger reconciliations from social vulnerability; and this indicates the effects of disasters prevention and mitigation from socio-economic elements when reducing its weight, while its physical vulnerability relatively higher. Three kinds of vulnerability are higher in the cities from Guangdong; mostly, the effects of disasters prevention and mitigation from socio-economic elements are not obvious in addition to cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen, which is closely related to the high frequency of storm surges, that's the greater impacts of natural vulnerability. Except Qingdao and Dalian, the composite vulnerability of most cities of Shandong and Liaoning changes along with the vulnerability changes of dominant weight; the changes like this indicate the prevention and mitigation of socio-economic factors, also relate to the fact that the region is another area influenced seriously by storm surge disasters. Shanghai and Tianjin have the low level in three kinds of vulnerability, because of strong effects of disaster prevention and mitigation while small impacts of storm surge disasters relatively.
The study focused on the the coastal areas of China, and that's a large scale. Systematic analysis, composite assessment and regionalization on storm surge disasters vulnerability are carried out. The physical social and comprehensive vulnerability are combined with mathematical statistical method based on history of disaster and the principal factor analysis of indicators system, also their temporal-spatial variation and influence factors are discussed. More in-depth and meticulous researches are needed to carry out disaster prevention and mitigation of storm surge effectively, such as storm surge vulnerability analysis and assessment carried out in community scale, which could provide a scientific basis for the development of effective and targeted countermeasures to reduce vulnerability.
(1)基于我国沿海地区1990-2009年间风暴潮灾害的历史灾情数据,借鉴CVI的评估思路,构建了沿海省区风暴潮灾害自然脆弱性评估指数SSVI,以此对沿海11个省区进行了评估与相对脆弱性区划。通过研究发现：SSVI存在明显的年际变化,尤其是21世纪最初十年的后半段(2005-2009年)变化更大,与全球气候变化背景下,极端天气、气候事件发生的频率和强度呈增加趋势有关；以五年为时段的SSVI,1990-1994和1995-1999年间明显大于2000-2004和2005-2009年间,与同时期我国频繁的热带气旋活动密切相关。空间上,SSVI最大值、5年及20年总和都表现出同样的规律,高与较高等级脆弱性基本为长江口以南的东南沿海地区的省市,低与较低等级脆弱性多为我国北部沿海省市,而中等级脆弱性的省市空间分布变化较大。分析还发现,受灾人口、受灾农作物面积、受灾水产养殖面积、毁损房屋以及直接经济损失等因素对风暴潮灾害自然脆弱性贡献最大。
(2)在自然脆弱性评估的基础上,采用指标体系和主成分分析方法,选取了60个指标,对53个沿海的地级市行政单元进行了风暴潮灾害社会脆弱性评估,提取出8个主成分,归纳为科技投入、基础设施与信息、服务、地区财富、社会保障、人口、城市化、环境、职业和发展,共解释了原有指标84.92%的变化。采用加法模型,计算出沿各地级市单元的社会脆弱性得分,并根据标准差分出代表风暴潮灾害社会脆弱性低、较低、中等、较高和高五个相对等级水平,同时进行了等级区划。结果显示：绝大部分的沿海地市处于中等脆弱性水平；脆弱性低的上海、广州、天津和深圳四个地市,科技投入、信息化水平、基础设施及地区财富几个主成分代表的变量对社会脆弱性贡献大,显示出这些地市具有很强的灾害吸收力与恢复力；较高社会脆弱性的地级市行政单元主要分布在我国的东南沿海(广东、广西与海南),人口、城市化与发展几个主成分对脆弱性的贡献较大；辽宁盘锦市的社会脆弱性为高等级,职业主成分对其贡献最大。
(3)将各省区SSVI值分别赋予其所包含的沿海地级市行政单元；再通过风暴潮灾害自然、社会脆弱性三种不同的权重组合,利用地方脆弱性模型(HOP)对沿海53个地级市单元综合脆弱性的相对水平进行了评估与区划。结果显示：三种权重组合下的综合脆弱性水平,总体都呈现出东南沿海高于北方沿海的趋势,并且自然、社会与综合三类脆弱性表现一致。浙江、福建与广西三省区的地市级单元,在自然脆弱性权重占优时综合脆弱性大多为中等,社会脆弱性权重虽减小,却起到较大调和作用；说明虽然这类地区受风暴潮灾害影响较大即自然脆弱性较高,但社会经济因素的防灾减灾效应更明显。广东省的各沿海地级市单元三类脆弱性等级一般都处于高水平；除个别地市如广州、深圳的社会经济因素防灾减灾效应明显外,大部分地级市不明显,与其受到风暴潮灾害影响的频率高有密切关系,即自然脆弱性的影响更大一些。山东、辽宁的地级市单元,除大连、青岛表现了较为明显的社会经济因素减灾效应外,其他地级市基本都表现出随权重占优类型的脆弱性变化趋势；一方面说明社会经济因素的防灾减灾效应,也与其是我国受风暴潮灾害另一个严重区域有关。天津与上海两市,三类脆弱性等级都属于低等级；与其受风暴潮灾害影响相对较小有关,同时更与其很强的社会经济因素防灾减灾效应密切相关。
本研究侧重在大尺度空间上对我国沿海地区风暴潮灾害脆弱性进行系统分析、综合评估与区划。利用基于历史灾情的数理统计方法与指标体系的主成分分析方法,将自然脆弱性、社会脆弱性与综合脆弱性结合在一起,探讨了其时空变化规律与影响因素等方面的内容。但要切实有效地开展风暴潮的防灾减灾,还需要进行更加深入、细致的研究,比如在社区尺度上开展风暴潮灾害脆弱性分析与评估等,为制定行之有效和针对性的减轻脆弱性对策提供科学依据。
China is one of few countries in the world that is influenced by tropical storm surge and extratropical storm surge at the same time. Storm surge disasters could occur throughout the year, from north to south with serious loss. Especially under the context of global warming, the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and storm surges will increase, which leads to increasing risks of disasters further in coastal areas. It is agreed that vulnerability studies is the field that human beings could accomplish something to disaster prevention and mitigation, to reduce the impacts of natural disasters. Supported by the Foundation of National Natural Science of China "Scenario Analysis of Emergency Responses to Natural Disasters Risk in Coastal Cities" and "the Shanghai Youth Science and Technology Venus Program", a large number of documents and data collected, and based on the progress of storm surge disaster vulnerability research home and abroad, physical vulnerability, social vulnerability and comprehensive vulnerability of storm surge disasters are analyzed and assessed on a large scale in the coastal regions of China. It's spatial differentiation and dominant factors are identified, which provides a scientific basis for developing countermeasures to reduce the vulnerability of storm surge disasters for different regions. The research findings are as follows:
(1) The storm surge disaster vulnerability index (Storm Surge Vulnerability Index, SSVI) is built by learning form the assessment method of Coastal Vulnerability Index (Coastal Vulnerability Index, CVT). According to the storm surge disaster loss data from1990to2009of eleven provinces in the coastal region, physical vulnerability of storm surge is assessed, and a relative vulnerability zoning then divided. The results show that:there is a large inter-annual variation of the SSVI, especially during the later of the first ten year of21st century (2005-2009), which is related to the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events under the condition of global climate change; the SSVI of each five years, it is larger from1990to1994and1995to1999than from2000to2004and2005to2009, and this is closely related to the frequent activity of tropical cyclone with the same period. Spatially, the maximum, the total SSVI of five years and twenty years have the same rules, which are the high and higher level of physical vulnerability are mainly distributed in southeastern coastal provinces, the low and lower level, in northern coastal provinces, respectively, while distribution of the middle level changes greatly. The analysis also found that the contribution of the affected populations, the affected crop area, the affected aquaculture area, housing damage and direct economic loss are large to the physical vulnerability of storm surge disasters.
(2) On the basis of physical vulnerability assessment, sixty indicators are selected as an index, and then the principal component analysis is used to assess the social vulnerability of storm surge disasters of the fifty-three cities along the coast. Eight principal factors are extracted as technology investments、infrastructure and information、services, region wealth, social security, population, urbanization, environment, occupation and development, which explained84.92% of the variance of the original indicators. Additive model is used to calculate the social vulnerability score of each city, and five relative levels are divided according to the standard deviation on behalf of low, lower, medium, higher, and high level, then regionalization. The results show that:most of the coastal cities are in the medium vulnerability level; Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin and Shenzhen are the four cities with the low level of social vulnerability, and the indicators represent technology investments, information technology level, infrastructure and regional wealth have larger contributions, which indicates a strong disaster absorption and resilience; cities with higher level social vulnerability are mainly located in the southeast coast of China, they are Guangdong and Hainan Province and Guangxi Zhuang Nationality Autonomous, the principal factors of population, urbanization and development are main contributors; Panjin City of Liaoning Province has the high level vulnerability, and occupation is the biggest devotee.
(3) Firstly, assigned SSVI value of each province to the coastal cities they contains respectively; then three kinds of weight combination of physical and social vulnerability conduct to evaluate the relative comprehensive vulnerability level of each city using the Hazards-of-Places Model, and regionalize. Here are the results:the comprehensive vulnerability level has the same trend under three kinds of different weight combination that is the southeast higher than northern coastal cities, and the physical, the social and the comprehensive vulnerability are in consistence. The composite vulnerability level are mostly moderate while the physical vulnerability weight dominated in the coastal cities of Zhejiang, Guangxi and Fujian, which shows a larger reconciliations from social vulnerability; and this indicates the effects of disasters prevention and mitigation from socio-economic elements when reducing its weight, while its physical vulnerability relatively higher. Three kinds of vulnerability are higher in the cities from Guangdong; mostly, the effects of disasters prevention and mitigation from socio-economic elements are not obvious in addition to cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen, which is closely related to the high frequency of storm surges, that's the greater impacts of natural vulnerability. Except Qingdao and Dalian, the composite vulnerability of most cities of Shandong and Liaoning changes along with the vulnerability changes of dominant weight; the changes like this indicate the prevention and mitigation of socio-economic factors, also relate to the fact that the region is another area influenced seriously by storm surge disasters. Shanghai and Tianjin have the low level in three kinds of vulnerability, because of strong effects of disaster prevention and mitigation while small impacts of storm surge disasters relatively.
The study focused on the the coastal areas of China, and that's a large scale. Systematic analysis, composite assessment and regionalization on storm surge disasters vulnerability are carried out. The physical social and comprehensive vulnerability are combined with mathematical statistical method based on history of disaster and the principal factor analysis of indicators system, also their temporal-spatial variation and influence factors are discussed. More in-depth and meticulous researches are needed to carry out disaster prevention and mitigation of storm surge effectively, such as storm surge vulnerability analysis and assessment carried out in community scale, which could provide a scientific basis for the development of effective and targeted countermeasures to reduce vulnerability.
引文
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