中国区域金融发展差异研究
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摘要
论文以劳动分工理论为基础,从金融发展、劳动分工与经济增长的内在联系中论证了金融的劳动分工促进功能,建立了基于劳动分工的区域金融发展水平的决定模型,以此为基础,从中国金融发展的“省际”差异、“东、中、西部”差异和“八大经济区域”差异的“三维视角”全面揭示了区域金融发展差异的现实状况与生成机理,进一步对区域金融发展的收敛机制与区域金融发展差异的变动特征进行了理论论证,并对中国区域金融发展差异的变动趋势与波动规律进行了实证考察。然后从效率差距与社会风险防范的角度,建立了中国区域金融发展差异调控的基本模型,提出中国区域金融发展差异调控的政策建议。
1.研究结论
(1)金融通过促进劳动分工进而推动经济增长是金融影响经济增长的重要方式。在一个有货币的经济系统中,商品交易效率和金融交易效率共同对分工演进与经济增长产生制约。但银行贷款效率提高对劳动分工与经济增长的作用具有二重性。在商品交易效率足够高的条件下,银行贷款效率与劳动分工水平和经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,银行贷款效率的提高显著地促进了劳动分工与经济增长;在商品交易效率极低的环境里,银行贷款效率的提高对劳动分工与经济增长的正面推动作用并不显著。但因民间金融的作用,商品交易效率提高对劳动分工和经济增长的作用不具有二重性。在银行贷款效率极低时,民间金融对正规金融产生替代效应,商品交易效率的提高同样能促进分工演进与经济增长,在贵州、青海、宁夏等正规金融发展落后的地区,民间金融对劳动分工与经济增长具有重要的作用。
(2)从劳动分工的视角来看,商品交易效率、金融交易效率、投资品的生产弹性系数、人均受教育年限、社会福利水平等因素共同制约着区域金融的发展。理论模型显示,从劳动分工的视角来看,一个地区的金融发展水平受到学习成本、投资品的生产弹性系数、投资品生产上的专业化经济程度、创新的激励水平、商品交易效率、金融交易效率、主观贴现率等七个因素的影响。这七个因素又可以归结为五个要素:商品交易效率、金融交易效率、投资品的生产弹性系数、人均受教育年限和社会福利水平。基于1992-2004年中国区域金融发展的面板单位根与面板协整分析发现,金融发展水平和社会福利水平、商品交易效率、金融交易效率、投资品的生产弹性系数、人均受教育年限之间具有稳定的协整关系。但在省际视角、东中西部视角和八大经济区域视角下,各变量的回归系数有明显差异,各变量对区域金融发展差异的贡献度具有差异。
(3)1992-2004年中国区域金融发展水平总体上呈现增长态势。论文借鉴了Zhang Jun、Guanghua Wan和Yu Jin(2007)的基于回归方程调整的方法从省际视角、东中西部视角和八大经济区域视角对区域金融发展水平进行了度量。根据省际区域金融发展水平来看,1992-2004年,中国金融发展水平总体上处于增长状态,1992年28个省市区金融发展水平的平均值为0.7246,2004年为1.0469。根据东、中、西部金融发展水平来看,1992-1997年,东部地区金融发展水平明显高于中部地区,中部地区又略高于西部地区。1998-2004年,东部地区的金融发展水平显著高于西部地区,西部地区的金融发展水平又高于中部地区。2004年,东部地区的金融发展水平为1.1513,西部地区为0.9832,中部地区为0.8951。根据八大经济区域的情况来看,沿海地区的金融发展水平明显高于其他地区。2004年,南部沿海地区金融发展水平为1.2329,居第一位,东部沿海地区金融发展水平为1.2260,居第二位。长江中游地区金融发展水平为0.6864,居末位。从金融发展水平提高的速度来看,东部沿海地区居第一位,2004年在1992年的基础上增长了108.73%;金融发展水平提高速度最慢的是东北地区,2004年在1992年的基础上只增长了6.15%。
(4)1978-2004年中国区域金融发展差异呈现“U”字型特征,1992年后,中国区域金融发展差异呈现明显上升势头。论文从省际视角、东中西部视角和八大经济区域的“三维视角”度量了1978-2004年的中国区域金融发展差异状况。发现中国区域金融发展差异呈现“U”字型特征。从省际视角来看,在1992年后,中国区域金融发展差异呈现明显上升势头。从东中西部和八大经济区域金融发展差异的分解结果来看,区域间金融发展差异占有重要地位。1992-2004年,八大经济区域间的金融发展差异占总差异的比例为35.78%,东中西部地区间的金融发展差异占总差异的比例为25.76%。尽管东中西部地区间和八大经济区域间金融发展差异在总差异中具有重要影响,但东中西部区域内和八大经济区域内金融发展差异依然是主体。
(5)1992-2004年,导致区域间金融发展差异的第一重要原因是各区域之间经济地理条件和国家制度倾斜等方面的差异,第二重要的原因是各区域之间人均受教育年限的差异。论文以基于劳动分工理论的区域金融发展模型和回归方程为基础,用夏普里值(Shapley value)分解法对中国省际区域金融发展差异、东中西部区域间金融发展差异和八大经济区域间金融发展差异进行了分解,从计量层面分析了1992-2004年“三种视角”下的中国区域金融发展差异形成的原因。研究发现,各因素在“三种视角”下的贡献率虽然有差异,但各因素的影响趋势具有相似性。各区域之间经济地理条件和国家制度倾斜等方面的差异是形成区域间金融发展差异的首要原因,由于先行优势和试点效应,在金融改革活跃时期,这种影响更加显著。第二重要的因素是各区域之间人均受教育年限的差异。同时,各区域之间商品交易效率、金融交易效率与社会福利水平的差异对区域间金融发展差异也有显著影响。但在三种视角下的贡献率及排名有差异。需要说明的是,由于商品交易效率与金融交易效率的内涵十分丰富,本文选择的替代指标可能过于简单,因此分解结果可能低估了二者对区域金融发展差异的贡献。但遗憾的是目前还没有一个更好的方法来测度市场的交易效率。
(6)区域金融发展差异的变动路径近似于“草帽”型,1978-2004年区域金融发展差异的“U”字型特征并不是区域金融发展差异变动的全程特征,而只是一个局部特征。论文以基于劳动分工理论的区域金融发展模型为基础,从决定金融发展的生产者受教育程度、社会福利水平、商品交易效率、金融交易效率和政府政策干预等因素出发,论证了区域金融发展的收敛机制。研究发现,随着时间的推移,区域金融发展差异可能呈现四个阶段。第一阶段是直接政策干预期,第二阶段是市场化的趋异期,第三阶段是市场化的趋同期,第四阶段是效率差异稳定期。在对中国区域金融发展差异变动态势的实证分析中发现,1978-2004年,三种视角下的区域金融发展差异显示的是“U”字型特征,与理论分析的“草帽”型特征不相符合。但从中国金融制度变迁的角度来看,“U”字型特征并不是区域金融发展差异变动的全程特征,而只是其中的一个局部特征。
(7)1992-2004年中国区域金融发展差异呈现加速扩张的态势。论文运用剩余法和Hodrick Prescott滤波方法对1992-2004年省际金融发展差异的泰尔指数时间序列进行了分解。结果发现,在1992-2004年,每增长1年,省际金融发展差异的泰尔指数的增长率会大约提高0.0004,因此区域金融发展差异呈现加速扩张的态势。在未来的一段时间内,区域金融发展极有可能依然处于趋异的状态,如果不进行政策调整与控制,在短期内中国区域金融发展不会走向收敛。1992-2004年中国区域金融发展差异也具有波动性,从循环变动的走势图中可以找到两个峰,一个峰在1994年,第二个峰在2003年。两峰之间的距离是9年。由于没有出现轮回,还不能明确判定出其循环周期就是9年。仅根据图形来看,其是否具有稳定的循环特征也无法确定。田霖(2006)对省际区域金融发展差异的循环周期也进行过测定,其结果是8-9年。因此本文的结果与之是相近的。但本文测定的循环变动是在遵循一定长期趋势下的循环波动,是一种短期现象。
(8)根据目前中国区域金融发展差异的运行态势来看,有必要对区域金融发展差异进行适当调控。目前中国区域金融发展差异处于市场化的趋异期,区域金融发展差异正以加速态势进行扩张,如不加以控制,可能会突破“陀螺空间”,增加社会经济的安全隐患,引发社会风险。但需要注意的是,在进行区域金融发展差异调控的同时,要促进区域金融发展的总体水平提高,要将区域金融发展差异尽量维持在“陀螺空间”边界线与金融发展可能性边界线和效率差异线的三线交汇点上。中国区域金融发展差异的调控范式可以是自上而下的范式,也可以是自下而上的范式,但两种范式各有优缺点,理想的范式是“自上而下”和“自下而上”有机结合的范式。
2.主要创新
(1)论文在回顾劳动分工与经济增长关系的基础上,建立了一个基于劳动分工的金融交易效率模型,揭示了金融发展、劳动分工与经济增长的内在联系。从理论与实证两方面论证了金融的劳动分工促进功能,从劳动分工的视角揭示了金融影响经济增长的方式与条件,深化了对金融影响经济增长内在机制的认识。
(2)突破了金融发展理论中的机构分析范式与结构分析范式,突出交易范式分析和功能范式分析,建立了一个基于劳动分工的、涵盖教育和创新的金融发展模型,为理解金融发展水平的决定机制提供了规范的分析框架,为探索区域金融发展差异的原因、研究区域金融发展差异的变动规律以及区域金融调控机制的设计提供了重要的理论基础。
(3)基于劳动分工理论,从中国金融发展的“省际”差异、“东、中、西部”差异和“八大经济区域”差异的“三维视角”,运用Shapley value分解法,对区域金融发展差异进行了分解,从计量层面揭示了区域金融发展差异的生成机理,将对区域金融发展差异原因的研究从一般的描述性分析推向了计量分析。
(4)以基于劳动分工的金融发展水平的决定模型为基础,对区域金融发展的收敛机制进行了开拓性的理论研究,并对中国区域金融发展差异的变动特征进行了实证分析。论证了发展中国家区域金融发展差异变动可能呈现的“草帽”型特征,而目前中国区域金融发展差异表现的“U”型特征只不过是市场化趋异期的片断特征,不是区域金融发展差异的全程特征。
3.政策建议
(1)要充分重视金融的劳动分工促进功能,缩小区域金融功能差异。国家要运用灵活多样的金融调控手段,以劳动分工促进为导向,将金融体系的资金配置到能够最大限度促进区域劳动分工的领域。特别是在当前新农村建设的背景下,改造传统小农经济,深化农村社会分工,提高农业生产专业化、组织化程度是促进农民持续增收、实现城乡协调发展的关键。当前迫切需要充分发挥农村金融的分工促进功能,提高农村金融的运行效率,要将农村金融的资金主要配置在促进农业产业化升级、农村劳动力转移方面。同时要合理疏导和规范民间金融的发展。在正规金融发展落后的地区,民间金融会对正规金融产生替代效应,从而对劳动分工与经济增长产生重要的推动作用。民间金融交易效率受到政府管制态度的影响,政府应当采取合理、规范的手段来发展民间金融,而不能片面地进行打压,特别是在西部地区和广大农村区域,要充分尊重民间金融的主体地位。
(2)构建动态的区域金融协调发展机制,缩小金融发展条件差异。第一,应当逐渐调整国家的金融经济发展战略,在着力推进发达区域金融经济发展的同时,必须要兼顾落后区域的金融经济的发展,不能让金融发展差异超越“陀螺空间”。在国家总体目标效率不降低的条件下,要给予落后区域更多的倾斜政策,要适当加快中西部地区的发展,尤其是中部地区,在1992-2004年,因为享受政策的倾斜十分有限,金融约束更加严重,应当受到政策层面的足够重视。第二,根据国家“分步走”的发展战略,要逐步将发展重心向落后区域进行转移,促进“跨时公平”,从动态上给予各地区平等的金融发展条件。第三,要加强区域金融发展的政策协调,促进区域金融合作,建立发达区域对落后区域的金融反哺机制。第四,在货币金融政策的执行中,要充分考虑各区域金融发展的差异性,打造区域货币政策运行平台,建立有效的、具有区域针对性的区域货币政策的调控机制,实施有差别的区域金融政策。
(3)推进教育投入体制综合改革,努力缩小区域间教育水平差异。第一,要改变中西部地区基础教育“由地方政府负责、分级管理、以县为主”的职责体制,建立主要由省级财政负责基础教育投入的机制。第二,要依法不断增加中西部地区的教育投入,建立与公共财政体制相适应的教育投入体制,进一步完善以政府投入为主,多渠道筹措教育经费的教育投入保障制度。在深化地方财政体制改革的基础上,逐步将农村教育经费投入纳入政府公共财政体制范围。第三,积极引导社会资金投资于教育,建立东部地区对中西部地区、沿海地区(北部沿海地区、东部沿海地区、南部沿海地区)对内陆地区的教育扶持与对口支援机制;第四,理顺财政与金融的教育投入关系,大力促进金融支持教育的金融创新,实现金融与教育的结合发展,建立教育发展与金融发展之间的良性互动机制。
(4)适度提高落后区域的社会福利水平,完善区域创新激励机制。第一,要加大落后区域社会福利的财政投入水平,依法建设社会福利的投入机制,进一步完善落后区域的劳动部门对职工提供的福利津贴、福利设施,促进社会福利生产,解决残疾人的生活与就业问题,加强敬老院、孤儿院、精神病人福利院的建设。第二,要改革落后区域社会福利的运行体制,促进社会福利的社会化。以有偿、低偿和无偿相结合的方式,提供多层次的社会福利服务;建立社会福利资源的社会化机制,改变投资主体单一的状况;推进社会福利事业管理的社会化,改变现有社会福利机构政府直接办、政府直接管的局面,引导社会福利社会办。第三,完善中西部地区及其他落后区域的创新激励机制,建立政府主导的创业基金制度,为创新群体提供合适的风险补贴、优惠的税收政策,积极营造创新文化。
(5)优化区域市场交易环境,缩小商品与金融交易条件的区域差异。第一,要积极促进落后地区和广大农村区域信息、通讯与交通条件的改善。在中西部地区,要保证交通及通讯等基础设施的投入,同时要积极引进高科技技术,提升基础设施建设的质量,促进中西部地区信息、通讯与交通服务能力的提升。第二,要加强中西部地区的市场法制建设,建立公平、公正的商品与金融市场交易平台,维护合理有序的市场秩序。第三要加强落后区域的诚信体系建设。建立基础保障层、他律控制层和自律屏障层“三位一体”的社会诚信体系。第四要加强落后区域金融主体及其金融人格培育,树立金融主体独立的金融人格,增强金融主体的自主性、风险与收益对称性和金融意识。第四,金融交易条件与商品交易条件的改善必须同步协调推进。针对落后地区,必须要从改善商品交易条件入手,确保商品市场的交易效率处于临界点以上。
Based on labor division theory, this paper demonstrates finance’s labor division promotion function from the inner relations among finance development, labor division and economic growth and then establishes a determination model about regional financial development level based on labor division. Then from“three-dimensional perspectives”that are provinces differences perspective,‘east, middle and west China’differences perspective and‘eight economic regions’differences perspective, this paper fully reveals current situation and causes mechanism of regional financial development differences, further demonstrates and empirically analyzes their change trend and fluctuation law. Further more, basic adjustment and control model of regional financial development differences is established concerning efficiency gap and social risks control. At last, policies recommendations for adjusting and controlling regional financial development differences are suggested.
1. Conclusions
(1) Economic growth is driven by labor division accelerated by finance, which is the key way for finance to affect economic growth. In the monetary economic system, when commodities exchange and finance transaction are efficient enough, labor division evolution and economic growth can be realized. However, improvement of bank load efficiency has double effect on labor division and economic growth. Under the high efficient commodities exchange, there is a long-term equilibrium among bank load efficiency, labor division level and economic growth. The improvement of bank load efficiency obviously promotes labor division and economic growth; under inefficient commodities exchange, it isn’t obvious that finance promotes labor division and economic growth. Because of informal finance, improvement of commodities exchange efficiency doesn’t have dual effect on labor division and economic growth. When bank loan efficiency is extremely low, informal finance has a substitution effect on formal finance, and improvement of commodities exchange efficiency is also able to promote labor evolution and economic growth. In the regions with under-developed formal finance, such as Guizhou, Qinghai and Ningxia provinces, informal finance has an important effect on labor division and economic growth.
(2)From perspective of labor division, many factors together limit regional financial development, such as commodities exchange efficiency, financial transaction efficiency, productive elasticity coefficient of investment commodities, the average length of education, social welfare levels. Theoretical model shows that financial development level in one region is affected by seven factors that are study cost, productive elasticity coefficient of investment commodities, specialization of investment commodities production, incentives levels for innovation, commodities exchange efficiency, financial transaction efficiency and subjective discount. These seven factors can be categorized into five aspects: commodities exchange efficiency, financial transaction efficiency, productive elasticity coefficient of investment commodities, the average length of education and social welfare levels. Panel unit roots and panel co-integration analysis of regional financial development in China from 1992 to 2004 shows that there are the stable co-integration relationships between financial development levels and social welfare levels, commodities exchange efficiency, financial transaction efficiency, productive elasticity coefficient of investment commodities as well as the average length of education. However, under the“three-dimensional”perspectives, regression coefficient of each variable is obviously different. Each variable’s contribution rate to regional financial development differences is different.
(3)From 1992 to 2004, China’s regional financial development generally appears increase. With reference to adjustable regression equation developed by Zhang Jun, Guanghua Wan and Yu Jin (2007), this paper measures regional financial development level from three-dimensional perspectives that are provinces perspectives, east, middle and west China perspectives as well as eight economic regions perspectives. According to provincial regional financial development level, from 1992 to 2004, China’s financial development level generally increases. In 1992, average financial development level of 28 provinces is 0.7246. In 2004, it’s 1.0469. According to financial development level of east, middle and west China, from 1992 to 1997, eastern region’financial development level is obviously higher that that of middle region, middle region’financial development level a little higher than that of western region. From 1998 to 2004, eastern regions’financial development level is evidently higher that that of middle regions, western region’financial development level higher than that of middle regions. In 2004, the financial development level of eastern region is 1.1513, western region 0.9832 and middle region 0.8951. According to eight economic regions, coastal region’financial development level is obviously higher than that of other regions. In 2004, southern coastal region’s financial development level is 1.2329, rank one, eastern coastal region 1.2260, rank two, middle reaches of Changjiang River 0.6864, rank last. Regarding financial development speed, eastern coastal region ranks first. In 2004, financial development increases 108.73% of that in 1992. The slowest financial development region is northeastern area. In 2004, it just increases 6.15% of that in 1992.
(4)From 1978 to 2004, regional financial development differences in China appear“U”characteristic. Since 1992, they appear rising tendency. This paper measures regional financial development differences from provinces, east, middle and west regions as well as eight economic regions perspectives. It finds out that regional financial development differences in China appear“U”characteristic. With regard to provinces, since 1992, China’s regional financial development differences appear obvious rising trend. After financial development differences among eastern, middle and western regions as well as eight economic regions are analyzed, cross-region financial development differences are important. From 1992 to 2004, financial development differences among eight economic regions account for 35.78% of the total differences. Financial development differences among east, middle and west regions account for 25.76%. Although the above two have an important effect on the total differences, the inner-region financial development differences of all these regions are still major.
(5)From 1992 to 2004, the first important reason causing cross-region financial development difference is different economic geographic conditions and priorities of cross-region national policies. The second important reason is differences of the average length of education. On the basis of regional financial development model and regression equation of labor division theory, with Shapley Value Analysis, this paper analyzes cross-region financial development differences among provinces, east, middle and west regions as well as eight economic regions. Reasons causing regional financial development differences are econometrically analyzed from 1992 to 2004. The study finds out that each factor has different contribution rate but the influence trend of each factor is similar. The chief reason causing cross-region financial development difference is different economic geographic conditions and priorities of cross-region national policies. The second important reason is different years of education received per capita. Meantime, different cross-region commodities exchange efficiency, finance efficiency and social welfare level has evident effect on cross-region financial development difference. However under three-dimensional perspectives contribution rate and ranks are different. It should be mentioned here that due to profound meanings of commodities exchange efficiency and financial transaction efficiency, indicators substituted by this paper may be simple, so that analyzing result may underestimate their contributions to regional financial development differences. But it’s disappointing that now there is no better way to measure market exchange efficiency.
(6)The change trend of regional financial development difference is similar to the shape of“hat”.“U”characteristic just shows characteristics of partial regional financial development differences change from 1978 to 2004 in China, not characteristics of the whole periods. On the basis of regional financial development model,this paper demonstrates convergence mechanism of regional development with these factors that determine financial development, such as education levels received by labor force, social welfare levels, commodities exchange efficiency and financial transaction efficiency and government intervention. The study shows that regional financial development differences may appear four phases. The first phase is direct policy intervention. The second phase is market-oriented divergent period. The third phase is market-oriented identical period. The fourth period is stable period of efficiency differences. Empirical analysis of change trend of regional financial development differences shows that under three-dimensional perspectives, regional financial development appears“U”characteristic, different from“hat”characteristic by theoretic analysis. But according to China’s financial system change,“U”just shows characteristics of partial regional financial development differences change, not characteristics of the whole periods.
(7)From 1992 to 2004, regional financial development differences appear trend of accelerating expansion. Using methods of residues and Hodrick Prescott filtering method, this paper analyzes Theil index time series of provincial financial development differences from 1992 to 2004. The results show that from 1992 to 204, every one year added, increment rate of Theil index of provincial financial differences will increase about 0.0004, so the regional financial development differences appear accelerating expansion. In the future, regional financial development may also in the phase of divergent period. If there is no policy adjustment and control, in the short time, regional financial development won’t be convergent. From 1992 to 2004, regional financial development differences fluctuate. There are two peaks in the figure. One is in 1994 and the other is in 2003. There are 9 years between two peaks. Because there is no more cycle, it’s uncertain that the cycle period is 9 years. According to the figure, it’s uncertain whether there is stable cycle. Tianlin (2006) measured the cycle period of regional financial development differences and the result is 8 to 9 years. So the result of this paper is close. But cycle change measured by this paper in line with long-term cycle fluctuation is a kind of short-term phenomena.
(8)According to trend of regional financial development differences, it’s necessary to adjust and control development differences. At present, regional financial development differences in China is in the phase of market-oriented divergent period. They are accelerating expansion. If out of control, they may break through“gyroscopic space”, and potential risks of social and economic security will be increased. It’s noted that while adjustment and control of regional financial development differences, the differences should be maintained at the point that borderline, possible financial development borderline and efficiency differences line cross, in order to promote the whole level of regional financial development. The methods of adjusting and control regional financial development differences can be top-down or bottom-up. The two methods have their own advantages and disadvantages. The ideal method is to rationally combine two methods above.
2. Innovations
(1)Reviewing the relationship between labor division and economic growth, this paper develops a financial transaction efficiency model based on labor division to reveal internal logic among financial development, labor division and economic growth. Finance promoting labor division function is proved by theory and empirical analysis. From labor division perspective, the ways and conditions for finance to influence economic growth is revealed and its internal mechanism is deeply identified.
(2)Institute analysis paradigm and structure analysis paradigm in financial development theory is broken through, with prominent transaction paradigm and function paradigm analysis in this paper. Financial development model including education and innovation based on labor division is established, which provides a standard analysis structure for understanding determination mechanism of financial development levels and an important basic theory for exploring causes of regional financial development differences, researching its change laws and designing a regional financial adjustment and control mechanism.
(3)Based on labor division theory, with Shapley Value Analysis, this paper analyzes financial development differences among regions from‘three-dimensional perspectives’of financial development in China, including provinces differences perspective,‘east, middle and west China’differences perspective and‘eight economic regions’differences perspective. It econometrically reveals mechanism resulting in regional financial development differences. It applies econometrical analysis in causes of regional financial development differences instead of descriptive analysis.
(4)On the basis of financial development level determination model, pioneering theoretical study is conducted on convergence mechanism of regional financial development and empirical analysis of characteristics of financial development differences change in this paper. It’s demonstrated that the change of regional financial development differences may be shaped like a“hat”. At present,“U”characteristic of regional financial development differences in China just shows characteristics of partial market-oriented divergent period, not characteristics of the whole periods.
3. Suggestions
(1)Finance’s labor division promotion function should be fully focused on to reduce regional financial function difference. With the direction of labor division promotion, central government should allocate capital from financial system to these fields that can maximally promote regional labor division, using flexible means of financial adjustment and control. With China undertaking new-style rural construction now, the key ways to increase rural families’incomes and balance rural and urban development are upgrading traditional self-sufficient economy, deepening rural social labor division and enhancing agricultural specialization as well as organization. At present, it’s urgent to fully explore rural finance’s labor division promotion function, improve running efficiency of rural finance, allocate rural financial capital to upgrade agriculture industries and transfer rural labors. At the same time, it’s necessary to rationally lead and regulate informal finance. In the areas with under-developed formal finance, informal finance has substitution effect on formal finance, so it plays an important role to drive labor division and economic growth. Efficiency of informal financial transactions is easily influenced by government attitude on finance control, so government should adopt rational measures to regulate development of informal finance instead of unilateral restriction. Especially in west China and lots of rural areas, informal finance should be recognized and respected.
(2)Mechanism for balanced development of regional finance should be established to reduce condition difference for financial development. Firstly, national strategy for financial and economic development should be gradually adjusted, not just developed regions are advanced, but also under-developed regions’development should be kept one eye on. Financial development difference should not exceed“gyroscopic space”. Under the conditions of unchanged efficiency of national strategies, priorities of national policies should be given to under-developed regions to speed up development in west and middle China. Secondly, according to national“step by step”development strategy, the focus of development will be gradually shifted on under-developed regions to promote“fair development among different times”, dynamically giving different regions equal conditions for financial development. Thirdly, policies coordination for regional financial development should be strengthened to advance regional financial cooperation. Financial back-feeding mechanism for developed regions to under-developed regions should be established. Fourthly, in the process of executing financial policies, financial development differences among regions should be considered when the platform is being established for application of regional financial policies. Adjustment and control mechanism for regional financial policies should be established. Different financial policies should be applied according to different conditions among regions.
(3)Reform of education input system should be advanced to reduce differences of education level among regions. Firstly, basic education in the charge of local government in middle and west China should be altered to new input system in the charge of provincial finance bureau. Secondly, education input in middle and west China should be increased continuing and legally. Education input system should be established compatible with public financial system. Education input security system should be enhanced with diverse channels for raising education fund. On the basis of deepening local financial reform, rural education fund input should be gradually brought into government public financial system. Thirdly, social fund should be actively leaded to investing in education. Systems for east regions aiding education in middle and west regions, as well as coastal regions (including northern, eastern and southern coastal regions) aiding education in inland should be established. Fourthly, the relationship between public finance and education input should be identified. Education supported by finance is one of financial innovation and should be promoted, in order to develop finance and education together. Sound interaction mechanism should be established between education development and finance development.
(4)Social welfare levels in under-developed regions should be moderately improved and incentives mechanism for innovation should be promoted among regions. Firstly, public finance input in social welfare should be strengthened in underdeveloped regions and social welfare input mechanism should be established legally. Welfare subsidy and facilities provided to workers by labor department should be improved. The disable’s life and employment problems should be resolved. Construction of social welfare homes for the old, children, and the mentally ill should be strengthened. Secondly, social welfare’s operation system should be upgraded in under-developed regions. Social welfare should be socialized. Diverse levels of social welfare services can be provided, for free or for profit; socialization mechanism for social welfare resources can be established to change singe investment; socialization of social welfare management should be promoted. Social welfare institutes directly managed by government can be altered to social welfare institutes managed by society. Thirdly, incentives mechanism for innovation should be promoted in middle and west China. Venture fund system leaded by government can be established to provide risk subsidy, favorable policies in taxation and to create environment for innovation.
(5)Market transaction environment should be optimized among regions to reduce regional differences of conditions for commodities exchange and finance transaction. Firstly, information, communications and transportation conditions should be actively improved in under-developed regions as well as lots of rural areas. In middle and west China, infrastructure input should be ensured, such as transportation and communications. At the same time, modern high technology should be actively introduced to promote capabilities of information, communications and transportation services. Secondly, the legal system should be strengthened in middle and west China to provide a platform for fare and equal commodities and finance market. Thirdly, construction of credit system including basic security level, heteronomous control level and autonomous barrier level should be strengthened in under-developed regions. Fourthly, independent financial subjects should be cultivated to increase their awareness of risks and profit. In addition, conditions for financial transaction and commodities exchange should be improved contemporarily. According to the real situations in under-developed regions, commodities exchange must be promoted firstly to ensure its efficiency above critical point. Then the objectives of adjustment and control can be really realized.
1.研究结论
(1)金融通过促进劳动分工进而推动经济增长是金融影响经济增长的重要方式。在一个有货币的经济系统中,商品交易效率和金融交易效率共同对分工演进与经济增长产生制约。但银行贷款效率提高对劳动分工与经济增长的作用具有二重性。在商品交易效率足够高的条件下,银行贷款效率与劳动分工水平和经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,银行贷款效率的提高显著地促进了劳动分工与经济增长;在商品交易效率极低的环境里,银行贷款效率的提高对劳动分工与经济增长的正面推动作用并不显著。但因民间金融的作用,商品交易效率提高对劳动分工和经济增长的作用不具有二重性。在银行贷款效率极低时,民间金融对正规金融产生替代效应,商品交易效率的提高同样能促进分工演进与经济增长,在贵州、青海、宁夏等正规金融发展落后的地区,民间金融对劳动分工与经济增长具有重要的作用。
(2)从劳动分工的视角来看,商品交易效率、金融交易效率、投资品的生产弹性系数、人均受教育年限、社会福利水平等因素共同制约着区域金融的发展。理论模型显示,从劳动分工的视角来看,一个地区的金融发展水平受到学习成本、投资品的生产弹性系数、投资品生产上的专业化经济程度、创新的激励水平、商品交易效率、金融交易效率、主观贴现率等七个因素的影响。这七个因素又可以归结为五个要素:商品交易效率、金融交易效率、投资品的生产弹性系数、人均受教育年限和社会福利水平。基于1992-2004年中国区域金融发展的面板单位根与面板协整分析发现,金融发展水平和社会福利水平、商品交易效率、金融交易效率、投资品的生产弹性系数、人均受教育年限之间具有稳定的协整关系。但在省际视角、东中西部视角和八大经济区域视角下,各变量的回归系数有明显差异,各变量对区域金融发展差异的贡献度具有差异。
(3)1992-2004年中国区域金融发展水平总体上呈现增长态势。论文借鉴了Zhang Jun、Guanghua Wan和Yu Jin(2007)的基于回归方程调整的方法从省际视角、东中西部视角和八大经济区域视角对区域金融发展水平进行了度量。根据省际区域金融发展水平来看,1992-2004年,中国金融发展水平总体上处于增长状态,1992年28个省市区金融发展水平的平均值为0.7246,2004年为1.0469。根据东、中、西部金融发展水平来看,1992-1997年,东部地区金融发展水平明显高于中部地区,中部地区又略高于西部地区。1998-2004年,东部地区的金融发展水平显著高于西部地区,西部地区的金融发展水平又高于中部地区。2004年,东部地区的金融发展水平为1.1513,西部地区为0.9832,中部地区为0.8951。根据八大经济区域的情况来看,沿海地区的金融发展水平明显高于其他地区。2004年,南部沿海地区金融发展水平为1.2329,居第一位,东部沿海地区金融发展水平为1.2260,居第二位。长江中游地区金融发展水平为0.6864,居末位。从金融发展水平提高的速度来看,东部沿海地区居第一位,2004年在1992年的基础上增长了108.73%;金融发展水平提高速度最慢的是东北地区,2004年在1992年的基础上只增长了6.15%。
(4)1978-2004年中国区域金融发展差异呈现“U”字型特征,1992年后,中国区域金融发展差异呈现明显上升势头。论文从省际视角、东中西部视角和八大经济区域的“三维视角”度量了1978-2004年的中国区域金融发展差异状况。发现中国区域金融发展差异呈现“U”字型特征。从省际视角来看,在1992年后,中国区域金融发展差异呈现明显上升势头。从东中西部和八大经济区域金融发展差异的分解结果来看,区域间金融发展差异占有重要地位。1992-2004年,八大经济区域间的金融发展差异占总差异的比例为35.78%,东中西部地区间的金融发展差异占总差异的比例为25.76%。尽管东中西部地区间和八大经济区域间金融发展差异在总差异中具有重要影响,但东中西部区域内和八大经济区域内金融发展差异依然是主体。
(5)1992-2004年,导致区域间金融发展差异的第一重要原因是各区域之间经济地理条件和国家制度倾斜等方面的差异,第二重要的原因是各区域之间人均受教育年限的差异。论文以基于劳动分工理论的区域金融发展模型和回归方程为基础,用夏普里值(Shapley value)分解法对中国省际区域金融发展差异、东中西部区域间金融发展差异和八大经济区域间金融发展差异进行了分解,从计量层面分析了1992-2004年“三种视角”下的中国区域金融发展差异形成的原因。研究发现,各因素在“三种视角”下的贡献率虽然有差异,但各因素的影响趋势具有相似性。各区域之间经济地理条件和国家制度倾斜等方面的差异是形成区域间金融发展差异的首要原因,由于先行优势和试点效应,在金融改革活跃时期,这种影响更加显著。第二重要的因素是各区域之间人均受教育年限的差异。同时,各区域之间商品交易效率、金融交易效率与社会福利水平的差异对区域间金融发展差异也有显著影响。但在三种视角下的贡献率及排名有差异。需要说明的是,由于商品交易效率与金融交易效率的内涵十分丰富,本文选择的替代指标可能过于简单,因此分解结果可能低估了二者对区域金融发展差异的贡献。但遗憾的是目前还没有一个更好的方法来测度市场的交易效率。
(6)区域金融发展差异的变动路径近似于“草帽”型,1978-2004年区域金融发展差异的“U”字型特征并不是区域金融发展差异变动的全程特征,而只是一个局部特征。论文以基于劳动分工理论的区域金融发展模型为基础,从决定金融发展的生产者受教育程度、社会福利水平、商品交易效率、金融交易效率和政府政策干预等因素出发,论证了区域金融发展的收敛机制。研究发现,随着时间的推移,区域金融发展差异可能呈现四个阶段。第一阶段是直接政策干预期,第二阶段是市场化的趋异期,第三阶段是市场化的趋同期,第四阶段是效率差异稳定期。在对中国区域金融发展差异变动态势的实证分析中发现,1978-2004年,三种视角下的区域金融发展差异显示的是“U”字型特征,与理论分析的“草帽”型特征不相符合。但从中国金融制度变迁的角度来看,“U”字型特征并不是区域金融发展差异变动的全程特征,而只是其中的一个局部特征。
(7)1992-2004年中国区域金融发展差异呈现加速扩张的态势。论文运用剩余法和Hodrick Prescott滤波方法对1992-2004年省际金融发展差异的泰尔指数时间序列进行了分解。结果发现,在1992-2004年,每增长1年,省际金融发展差异的泰尔指数的增长率会大约提高0.0004,因此区域金融发展差异呈现加速扩张的态势。在未来的一段时间内,区域金融发展极有可能依然处于趋异的状态,如果不进行政策调整与控制,在短期内中国区域金融发展不会走向收敛。1992-2004年中国区域金融发展差异也具有波动性,从循环变动的走势图中可以找到两个峰,一个峰在1994年,第二个峰在2003年。两峰之间的距离是9年。由于没有出现轮回,还不能明确判定出其循环周期就是9年。仅根据图形来看,其是否具有稳定的循环特征也无法确定。田霖(2006)对省际区域金融发展差异的循环周期也进行过测定,其结果是8-9年。因此本文的结果与之是相近的。但本文测定的循环变动是在遵循一定长期趋势下的循环波动,是一种短期现象。
(8)根据目前中国区域金融发展差异的运行态势来看,有必要对区域金融发展差异进行适当调控。目前中国区域金融发展差异处于市场化的趋异期,区域金融发展差异正以加速态势进行扩张,如不加以控制,可能会突破“陀螺空间”,增加社会经济的安全隐患,引发社会风险。但需要注意的是,在进行区域金融发展差异调控的同时,要促进区域金融发展的总体水平提高,要将区域金融发展差异尽量维持在“陀螺空间”边界线与金融发展可能性边界线和效率差异线的三线交汇点上。中国区域金融发展差异的调控范式可以是自上而下的范式,也可以是自下而上的范式,但两种范式各有优缺点,理想的范式是“自上而下”和“自下而上”有机结合的范式。
2.主要创新
(1)论文在回顾劳动分工与经济增长关系的基础上,建立了一个基于劳动分工的金融交易效率模型,揭示了金融发展、劳动分工与经济增长的内在联系。从理论与实证两方面论证了金融的劳动分工促进功能,从劳动分工的视角揭示了金融影响经济增长的方式与条件,深化了对金融影响经济增长内在机制的认识。
(2)突破了金融发展理论中的机构分析范式与结构分析范式,突出交易范式分析和功能范式分析,建立了一个基于劳动分工的、涵盖教育和创新的金融发展模型,为理解金融发展水平的决定机制提供了规范的分析框架,为探索区域金融发展差异的原因、研究区域金融发展差异的变动规律以及区域金融调控机制的设计提供了重要的理论基础。
(3)基于劳动分工理论,从中国金融发展的“省际”差异、“东、中、西部”差异和“八大经济区域”差异的“三维视角”,运用Shapley value分解法,对区域金融发展差异进行了分解,从计量层面揭示了区域金融发展差异的生成机理,将对区域金融发展差异原因的研究从一般的描述性分析推向了计量分析。
(4)以基于劳动分工的金融发展水平的决定模型为基础,对区域金融发展的收敛机制进行了开拓性的理论研究,并对中国区域金融发展差异的变动特征进行了实证分析。论证了发展中国家区域金融发展差异变动可能呈现的“草帽”型特征,而目前中国区域金融发展差异表现的“U”型特征只不过是市场化趋异期的片断特征,不是区域金融发展差异的全程特征。
3.政策建议
(1)要充分重视金融的劳动分工促进功能,缩小区域金融功能差异。国家要运用灵活多样的金融调控手段,以劳动分工促进为导向,将金融体系的资金配置到能够最大限度促进区域劳动分工的领域。特别是在当前新农村建设的背景下,改造传统小农经济,深化农村社会分工,提高农业生产专业化、组织化程度是促进农民持续增收、实现城乡协调发展的关键。当前迫切需要充分发挥农村金融的分工促进功能,提高农村金融的运行效率,要将农村金融的资金主要配置在促进农业产业化升级、农村劳动力转移方面。同时要合理疏导和规范民间金融的发展。在正规金融发展落后的地区,民间金融会对正规金融产生替代效应,从而对劳动分工与经济增长产生重要的推动作用。民间金融交易效率受到政府管制态度的影响,政府应当采取合理、规范的手段来发展民间金融,而不能片面地进行打压,特别是在西部地区和广大农村区域,要充分尊重民间金融的主体地位。
(2)构建动态的区域金融协调发展机制,缩小金融发展条件差异。第一,应当逐渐调整国家的金融经济发展战略,在着力推进发达区域金融经济发展的同时,必须要兼顾落后区域的金融经济的发展,不能让金融发展差异超越“陀螺空间”。在国家总体目标效率不降低的条件下,要给予落后区域更多的倾斜政策,要适当加快中西部地区的发展,尤其是中部地区,在1992-2004年,因为享受政策的倾斜十分有限,金融约束更加严重,应当受到政策层面的足够重视。第二,根据国家“分步走”的发展战略,要逐步将发展重心向落后区域进行转移,促进“跨时公平”,从动态上给予各地区平等的金融发展条件。第三,要加强区域金融发展的政策协调,促进区域金融合作,建立发达区域对落后区域的金融反哺机制。第四,在货币金融政策的执行中,要充分考虑各区域金融发展的差异性,打造区域货币政策运行平台,建立有效的、具有区域针对性的区域货币政策的调控机制,实施有差别的区域金融政策。
(3)推进教育投入体制综合改革,努力缩小区域间教育水平差异。第一,要改变中西部地区基础教育“由地方政府负责、分级管理、以县为主”的职责体制,建立主要由省级财政负责基础教育投入的机制。第二,要依法不断增加中西部地区的教育投入,建立与公共财政体制相适应的教育投入体制,进一步完善以政府投入为主,多渠道筹措教育经费的教育投入保障制度。在深化地方财政体制改革的基础上,逐步将农村教育经费投入纳入政府公共财政体制范围。第三,积极引导社会资金投资于教育,建立东部地区对中西部地区、沿海地区(北部沿海地区、东部沿海地区、南部沿海地区)对内陆地区的教育扶持与对口支援机制;第四,理顺财政与金融的教育投入关系,大力促进金融支持教育的金融创新,实现金融与教育的结合发展,建立教育发展与金融发展之间的良性互动机制。
(4)适度提高落后区域的社会福利水平,完善区域创新激励机制。第一,要加大落后区域社会福利的财政投入水平,依法建设社会福利的投入机制,进一步完善落后区域的劳动部门对职工提供的福利津贴、福利设施,促进社会福利生产,解决残疾人的生活与就业问题,加强敬老院、孤儿院、精神病人福利院的建设。第二,要改革落后区域社会福利的运行体制,促进社会福利的社会化。以有偿、低偿和无偿相结合的方式,提供多层次的社会福利服务;建立社会福利资源的社会化机制,改变投资主体单一的状况;推进社会福利事业管理的社会化,改变现有社会福利机构政府直接办、政府直接管的局面,引导社会福利社会办。第三,完善中西部地区及其他落后区域的创新激励机制,建立政府主导的创业基金制度,为创新群体提供合适的风险补贴、优惠的税收政策,积极营造创新文化。
(5)优化区域市场交易环境,缩小商品与金融交易条件的区域差异。第一,要积极促进落后地区和广大农村区域信息、通讯与交通条件的改善。在中西部地区,要保证交通及通讯等基础设施的投入,同时要积极引进高科技技术,提升基础设施建设的质量,促进中西部地区信息、通讯与交通服务能力的提升。第二,要加强中西部地区的市场法制建设,建立公平、公正的商品与金融市场交易平台,维护合理有序的市场秩序。第三要加强落后区域的诚信体系建设。建立基础保障层、他律控制层和自律屏障层“三位一体”的社会诚信体系。第四要加强落后区域金融主体及其金融人格培育,树立金融主体独立的金融人格,增强金融主体的自主性、风险与收益对称性和金融意识。第四,金融交易条件与商品交易条件的改善必须同步协调推进。针对落后地区,必须要从改善商品交易条件入手,确保商品市场的交易效率处于临界点以上。
Based on labor division theory, this paper demonstrates finance’s labor division promotion function from the inner relations among finance development, labor division and economic growth and then establishes a determination model about regional financial development level based on labor division. Then from“three-dimensional perspectives”that are provinces differences perspective,‘east, middle and west China’differences perspective and‘eight economic regions’differences perspective, this paper fully reveals current situation and causes mechanism of regional financial development differences, further demonstrates and empirically analyzes their change trend and fluctuation law. Further more, basic adjustment and control model of regional financial development differences is established concerning efficiency gap and social risks control. At last, policies recommendations for adjusting and controlling regional financial development differences are suggested.
1. Conclusions
(1) Economic growth is driven by labor division accelerated by finance, which is the key way for finance to affect economic growth. In the monetary economic system, when commodities exchange and finance transaction are efficient enough, labor division evolution and economic growth can be realized. However, improvement of bank load efficiency has double effect on labor division and economic growth. Under the high efficient commodities exchange, there is a long-term equilibrium among bank load efficiency, labor division level and economic growth. The improvement of bank load efficiency obviously promotes labor division and economic growth; under inefficient commodities exchange, it isn’t obvious that finance promotes labor division and economic growth. Because of informal finance, improvement of commodities exchange efficiency doesn’t have dual effect on labor division and economic growth. When bank loan efficiency is extremely low, informal finance has a substitution effect on formal finance, and improvement of commodities exchange efficiency is also able to promote labor evolution and economic growth. In the regions with under-developed formal finance, such as Guizhou, Qinghai and Ningxia provinces, informal finance has an important effect on labor division and economic growth.
(2)From perspective of labor division, many factors together limit regional financial development, such as commodities exchange efficiency, financial transaction efficiency, productive elasticity coefficient of investment commodities, the average length of education, social welfare levels. Theoretical model shows that financial development level in one region is affected by seven factors that are study cost, productive elasticity coefficient of investment commodities, specialization of investment commodities production, incentives levels for innovation, commodities exchange efficiency, financial transaction efficiency and subjective discount. These seven factors can be categorized into five aspects: commodities exchange efficiency, financial transaction efficiency, productive elasticity coefficient of investment commodities, the average length of education and social welfare levels. Panel unit roots and panel co-integration analysis of regional financial development in China from 1992 to 2004 shows that there are the stable co-integration relationships between financial development levels and social welfare levels, commodities exchange efficiency, financial transaction efficiency, productive elasticity coefficient of investment commodities as well as the average length of education. However, under the“three-dimensional”perspectives, regression coefficient of each variable is obviously different. Each variable’s contribution rate to regional financial development differences is different.
(3)From 1992 to 2004, China’s regional financial development generally appears increase. With reference to adjustable regression equation developed by Zhang Jun, Guanghua Wan and Yu Jin (2007), this paper measures regional financial development level from three-dimensional perspectives that are provinces perspectives, east, middle and west China perspectives as well as eight economic regions perspectives. According to provincial regional financial development level, from 1992 to 2004, China’s financial development level generally increases. In 1992, average financial development level of 28 provinces is 0.7246. In 2004, it’s 1.0469. According to financial development level of east, middle and west China, from 1992 to 1997, eastern region’financial development level is obviously higher that that of middle region, middle region’financial development level a little higher than that of western region. From 1998 to 2004, eastern regions’financial development level is evidently higher that that of middle regions, western region’financial development level higher than that of middle regions. In 2004, the financial development level of eastern region is 1.1513, western region 0.9832 and middle region 0.8951. According to eight economic regions, coastal region’financial development level is obviously higher than that of other regions. In 2004, southern coastal region’s financial development level is 1.2329, rank one, eastern coastal region 1.2260, rank two, middle reaches of Changjiang River 0.6864, rank last. Regarding financial development speed, eastern coastal region ranks first. In 2004, financial development increases 108.73% of that in 1992. The slowest financial development region is northeastern area. In 2004, it just increases 6.15% of that in 1992.
(4)From 1978 to 2004, regional financial development differences in China appear“U”characteristic. Since 1992, they appear rising tendency. This paper measures regional financial development differences from provinces, east, middle and west regions as well as eight economic regions perspectives. It finds out that regional financial development differences in China appear“U”characteristic. With regard to provinces, since 1992, China’s regional financial development differences appear obvious rising trend. After financial development differences among eastern, middle and western regions as well as eight economic regions are analyzed, cross-region financial development differences are important. From 1992 to 2004, financial development differences among eight economic regions account for 35.78% of the total differences. Financial development differences among east, middle and west regions account for 25.76%. Although the above two have an important effect on the total differences, the inner-region financial development differences of all these regions are still major.
(5)From 1992 to 2004, the first important reason causing cross-region financial development difference is different economic geographic conditions and priorities of cross-region national policies. The second important reason is differences of the average length of education. On the basis of regional financial development model and regression equation of labor division theory, with Shapley Value Analysis, this paper analyzes cross-region financial development differences among provinces, east, middle and west regions as well as eight economic regions. Reasons causing regional financial development differences are econometrically analyzed from 1992 to 2004. The study finds out that each factor has different contribution rate but the influence trend of each factor is similar. The chief reason causing cross-region financial development difference is different economic geographic conditions and priorities of cross-region national policies. The second important reason is different years of education received per capita. Meantime, different cross-region commodities exchange efficiency, finance efficiency and social welfare level has evident effect on cross-region financial development difference. However under three-dimensional perspectives contribution rate and ranks are different. It should be mentioned here that due to profound meanings of commodities exchange efficiency and financial transaction efficiency, indicators substituted by this paper may be simple, so that analyzing result may underestimate their contributions to regional financial development differences. But it’s disappointing that now there is no better way to measure market exchange efficiency.
(6)The change trend of regional financial development difference is similar to the shape of“hat”.“U”characteristic just shows characteristics of partial regional financial development differences change from 1978 to 2004 in China, not characteristics of the whole periods. On the basis of regional financial development model,this paper demonstrates convergence mechanism of regional development with these factors that determine financial development, such as education levels received by labor force, social welfare levels, commodities exchange efficiency and financial transaction efficiency and government intervention. The study shows that regional financial development differences may appear four phases. The first phase is direct policy intervention. The second phase is market-oriented divergent period. The third phase is market-oriented identical period. The fourth period is stable period of efficiency differences. Empirical analysis of change trend of regional financial development differences shows that under three-dimensional perspectives, regional financial development appears“U”characteristic, different from“hat”characteristic by theoretic analysis. But according to China’s financial system change,“U”just shows characteristics of partial regional financial development differences change, not characteristics of the whole periods.
(7)From 1992 to 2004, regional financial development differences appear trend of accelerating expansion. Using methods of residues and Hodrick Prescott filtering method, this paper analyzes Theil index time series of provincial financial development differences from 1992 to 2004. The results show that from 1992 to 204, every one year added, increment rate of Theil index of provincial financial differences will increase about 0.0004, so the regional financial development differences appear accelerating expansion. In the future, regional financial development may also in the phase of divergent period. If there is no policy adjustment and control, in the short time, regional financial development won’t be convergent. From 1992 to 2004, regional financial development differences fluctuate. There are two peaks in the figure. One is in 1994 and the other is in 2003. There are 9 years between two peaks. Because there is no more cycle, it’s uncertain that the cycle period is 9 years. According to the figure, it’s uncertain whether there is stable cycle. Tianlin (2006) measured the cycle period of regional financial development differences and the result is 8 to 9 years. So the result of this paper is close. But cycle change measured by this paper in line with long-term cycle fluctuation is a kind of short-term phenomena.
(8)According to trend of regional financial development differences, it’s necessary to adjust and control development differences. At present, regional financial development differences in China is in the phase of market-oriented divergent period. They are accelerating expansion. If out of control, they may break through“gyroscopic space”, and potential risks of social and economic security will be increased. It’s noted that while adjustment and control of regional financial development differences, the differences should be maintained at the point that borderline, possible financial development borderline and efficiency differences line cross, in order to promote the whole level of regional financial development. The methods of adjusting and control regional financial development differences can be top-down or bottom-up. The two methods have their own advantages and disadvantages. The ideal method is to rationally combine two methods above.
2. Innovations
(1)Reviewing the relationship between labor division and economic growth, this paper develops a financial transaction efficiency model based on labor division to reveal internal logic among financial development, labor division and economic growth. Finance promoting labor division function is proved by theory and empirical analysis. From labor division perspective, the ways and conditions for finance to influence economic growth is revealed and its internal mechanism is deeply identified.
(2)Institute analysis paradigm and structure analysis paradigm in financial development theory is broken through, with prominent transaction paradigm and function paradigm analysis in this paper. Financial development model including education and innovation based on labor division is established, which provides a standard analysis structure for understanding determination mechanism of financial development levels and an important basic theory for exploring causes of regional financial development differences, researching its change laws and designing a regional financial adjustment and control mechanism.
(3)Based on labor division theory, with Shapley Value Analysis, this paper analyzes financial development differences among regions from‘three-dimensional perspectives’of financial development in China, including provinces differences perspective,‘east, middle and west China’differences perspective and‘eight economic regions’differences perspective. It econometrically reveals mechanism resulting in regional financial development differences. It applies econometrical analysis in causes of regional financial development differences instead of descriptive analysis.
(4)On the basis of financial development level determination model, pioneering theoretical study is conducted on convergence mechanism of regional financial development and empirical analysis of characteristics of financial development differences change in this paper. It’s demonstrated that the change of regional financial development differences may be shaped like a“hat”. At present,“U”characteristic of regional financial development differences in China just shows characteristics of partial market-oriented divergent period, not characteristics of the whole periods.
3. Suggestions
(1)Finance’s labor division promotion function should be fully focused on to reduce regional financial function difference. With the direction of labor division promotion, central government should allocate capital from financial system to these fields that can maximally promote regional labor division, using flexible means of financial adjustment and control. With China undertaking new-style rural construction now, the key ways to increase rural families’incomes and balance rural and urban development are upgrading traditional self-sufficient economy, deepening rural social labor division and enhancing agricultural specialization as well as organization. At present, it’s urgent to fully explore rural finance’s labor division promotion function, improve running efficiency of rural finance, allocate rural financial capital to upgrade agriculture industries and transfer rural labors. At the same time, it’s necessary to rationally lead and regulate informal finance. In the areas with under-developed formal finance, informal finance has substitution effect on formal finance, so it plays an important role to drive labor division and economic growth. Efficiency of informal financial transactions is easily influenced by government attitude on finance control, so government should adopt rational measures to regulate development of informal finance instead of unilateral restriction. Especially in west China and lots of rural areas, informal finance should be recognized and respected.
(2)Mechanism for balanced development of regional finance should be established to reduce condition difference for financial development. Firstly, national strategy for financial and economic development should be gradually adjusted, not just developed regions are advanced, but also under-developed regions’development should be kept one eye on. Financial development difference should not exceed“gyroscopic space”. Under the conditions of unchanged efficiency of national strategies, priorities of national policies should be given to under-developed regions to speed up development in west and middle China. Secondly, according to national“step by step”development strategy, the focus of development will be gradually shifted on under-developed regions to promote“fair development among different times”, dynamically giving different regions equal conditions for financial development. Thirdly, policies coordination for regional financial development should be strengthened to advance regional financial cooperation. Financial back-feeding mechanism for developed regions to under-developed regions should be established. Fourthly, in the process of executing financial policies, financial development differences among regions should be considered when the platform is being established for application of regional financial policies. Adjustment and control mechanism for regional financial policies should be established. Different financial policies should be applied according to different conditions among regions.
(3)Reform of education input system should be advanced to reduce differences of education level among regions. Firstly, basic education in the charge of local government in middle and west China should be altered to new input system in the charge of provincial finance bureau. Secondly, education input in middle and west China should be increased continuing and legally. Education input system should be established compatible with public financial system. Education input security system should be enhanced with diverse channels for raising education fund. On the basis of deepening local financial reform, rural education fund input should be gradually brought into government public financial system. Thirdly, social fund should be actively leaded to investing in education. Systems for east regions aiding education in middle and west regions, as well as coastal regions (including northern, eastern and southern coastal regions) aiding education in inland should be established. Fourthly, the relationship between public finance and education input should be identified. Education supported by finance is one of financial innovation and should be promoted, in order to develop finance and education together. Sound interaction mechanism should be established between education development and finance development.
(4)Social welfare levels in under-developed regions should be moderately improved and incentives mechanism for innovation should be promoted among regions. Firstly, public finance input in social welfare should be strengthened in underdeveloped regions and social welfare input mechanism should be established legally. Welfare subsidy and facilities provided to workers by labor department should be improved. The disable’s life and employment problems should be resolved. Construction of social welfare homes for the old, children, and the mentally ill should be strengthened. Secondly, social welfare’s operation system should be upgraded in under-developed regions. Social welfare should be socialized. Diverse levels of social welfare services can be provided, for free or for profit; socialization mechanism for social welfare resources can be established to change singe investment; socialization of social welfare management should be promoted. Social welfare institutes directly managed by government can be altered to social welfare institutes managed by society. Thirdly, incentives mechanism for innovation should be promoted in middle and west China. Venture fund system leaded by government can be established to provide risk subsidy, favorable policies in taxation and to create environment for innovation.
(5)Market transaction environment should be optimized among regions to reduce regional differences of conditions for commodities exchange and finance transaction. Firstly, information, communications and transportation conditions should be actively improved in under-developed regions as well as lots of rural areas. In middle and west China, infrastructure input should be ensured, such as transportation and communications. At the same time, modern high technology should be actively introduced to promote capabilities of information, communications and transportation services. Secondly, the legal system should be strengthened in middle and west China to provide a platform for fare and equal commodities and finance market. Thirdly, construction of credit system including basic security level, heteronomous control level and autonomous barrier level should be strengthened in under-developed regions. Fourthly, independent financial subjects should be cultivated to increase their awareness of risks and profit. In addition, conditions for financial transaction and commodities exchange should be improved contemporarily. According to the real situations in under-developed regions, commodities exchange must be promoted firstly to ensure its efficiency above critical point. Then the objectives of adjustment and control can be really realized.
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