城市雨水系统工况模拟与内涝风险评价
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摘要
随着城市建设的迅速发展、城市化程度的进一步提高,尽管排水系统建设力度随之加大,但是城市内涝问题仍呈现日益显著的态势。由于城市内涝灾害多年来持续威胁城市安全,给城市的正常运转带来风险,因此本文将风险的概念引入城市内涝问题研究,结合先进的计算机模拟手段模拟雨水系统不同工况并进行城市内涝风险评价。风险技术与模拟技术的结合,使得水力模型的应用更具实用性,可以为其他城市或地区的雨水系统建模以及内涝风险分析提供借鉴,为城市暴雨管理、解决内涝问题提供了决策参考。
首先,本文对城市雨水的计算机模型进行了比较并详细介绍了InfoWorks Collection System模型的理论和方法。
其次,给出城市内涝的定义,系统分析了城市内涝问题的成因是气候、地面及人类活动的影响三个方面,其中气候因素中的暴雨是构成内涝的直接成因。
再次,根据风险研究的理论和方法,确定了城市内涝问题的研究方法,即利用综合分解分析法、检查表法进行内涝风险辨识;利用概率分析法和蒙特卡洛法进行风险估计;利用模糊综合评价法进行风险评估。
最后,在利用InfoWorks Collection System软件建立动态水力模型并利用泵站记录资料完成模型率定的基础上,结合实例模拟了降雨强度重现期和水泵失效情况下雨水系统的反应过程。提出利用积水深度和可恢复性作为内涝风险后果影响的量化指标,通过积水深度来表征内涝对城市交通带来影响的程度,通过可恢复性来表征地面遭到淹水后恢复正常的能力,并利用软件数据自编程序计算上述指标。根据模拟结果进行以节点积水风险代替地面内涝风险的评估并绘制特定重现期下的研究区域节点风险图,直观显示内涝风险程度,同时识别系统瓶颈,为日后暴雨管理、解决内涝问题提供科学的依据。
With the rapid development of urban construction and the further increase of urbanization process, though government pays more attention to the construction of urban storm system, the problem of city waterlogging is still in an increasing trend. Since the urban security is constantly threatened by waterlogging disaster and there are some risks in the normal operation, in this paper risk assessment is applied to the study of city waterlogging and computerized simulation method is used to model different situations. The combination of risk study and computerized simulation which makes the application of hydraulic model more practical can be used not only for reference to modeling and risk assessment for other cities and regions but also for decision making in urban storm water management and waterlogging solution.
Firstly, many urban storm water models developed by academic institutions, regulatory authorities, government departments and engineering consultants that are capable of simulating water quantity in an urban catchment are compared. The theories and methods of InfoWorks Collection System model are introduced. Secondly, the definition about city waterlogging is given. The reasons caused city waterlogging are weather, ground and the activities of human being and storm is the direct reason in weather.
Thirdly, the theories and methods of risk study are demonstrated and comprehensive decomposition analytical method combined with check list method are applied to risk identification, then the methods of probability analysis and Monte Carlo simulation are applied to risk estimation and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation provides techniques for risk evaluation.
Finally, a hydraulic model based on case is built using InfoWorks Collection System software and verified using pump station records. Model reactions under the situations of several return periods and pump failure are discussed. Seeper depth and recoverability are selected as quantitative indexes of risk consequence and in order to calculate those indexes using CS dates programs are compiled. The index of seeper depth is characterized the influence on the urban traffic caused by waterlogging and the index of recoverability is characterized the capacity restored to normal from waterlogging. Risk assessment on which node risk is substituted for district risk is carried out according to the results of the simulations and risk map of specific return period is drew that can reflect the degree of city waterlogging and identify the bottle neck of the system and provide the scientific basis of storm water management and waterlogging solution.
首先,本文对城市雨水的计算机模型进行了比较并详细介绍了InfoWorks Collection System模型的理论和方法。
其次,给出城市内涝的定义,系统分析了城市内涝问题的成因是气候、地面及人类活动的影响三个方面,其中气候因素中的暴雨是构成内涝的直接成因。
再次,根据风险研究的理论和方法,确定了城市内涝问题的研究方法,即利用综合分解分析法、检查表法进行内涝风险辨识;利用概率分析法和蒙特卡洛法进行风险估计;利用模糊综合评价法进行风险评估。
最后,在利用InfoWorks Collection System软件建立动态水力模型并利用泵站记录资料完成模型率定的基础上,结合实例模拟了降雨强度重现期和水泵失效情况下雨水系统的反应过程。提出利用积水深度和可恢复性作为内涝风险后果影响的量化指标,通过积水深度来表征内涝对城市交通带来影响的程度,通过可恢复性来表征地面遭到淹水后恢复正常的能力,并利用软件数据自编程序计算上述指标。根据模拟结果进行以节点积水风险代替地面内涝风险的评估并绘制特定重现期下的研究区域节点风险图,直观显示内涝风险程度,同时识别系统瓶颈,为日后暴雨管理、解决内涝问题提供科学的依据。
With the rapid development of urban construction and the further increase of urbanization process, though government pays more attention to the construction of urban storm system, the problem of city waterlogging is still in an increasing trend. Since the urban security is constantly threatened by waterlogging disaster and there are some risks in the normal operation, in this paper risk assessment is applied to the study of city waterlogging and computerized simulation method is used to model different situations. The combination of risk study and computerized simulation which makes the application of hydraulic model more practical can be used not only for reference to modeling and risk assessment for other cities and regions but also for decision making in urban storm water management and waterlogging solution.
Firstly, many urban storm water models developed by academic institutions, regulatory authorities, government departments and engineering consultants that are capable of simulating water quantity in an urban catchment are compared. The theories and methods of InfoWorks Collection System model are introduced. Secondly, the definition about city waterlogging is given. The reasons caused city waterlogging are weather, ground and the activities of human being and storm is the direct reason in weather.
Thirdly, the theories and methods of risk study are demonstrated and comprehensive decomposition analytical method combined with check list method are applied to risk identification, then the methods of probability analysis and Monte Carlo simulation are applied to risk estimation and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation provides techniques for risk evaluation.
Finally, a hydraulic model based on case is built using InfoWorks Collection System software and verified using pump station records. Model reactions under the situations of several return periods and pump failure are discussed. Seeper depth and recoverability are selected as quantitative indexes of risk consequence and in order to calculate those indexes using CS dates programs are compiled. The index of seeper depth is characterized the influence on the urban traffic caused by waterlogging and the index of recoverability is characterized the capacity restored to normal from waterlogging. Risk assessment on which node risk is substituted for district risk is carried out according to the results of the simulations and risk map of specific return period is drew that can reflect the degree of city waterlogging and identify the bottle neck of the system and provide the scientific basis of storm water management and waterlogging solution.
引文
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[2]姜玉明,刘振昌,陈宏峰.哈尔滨市城市(主城区)渍水的治理对策[J].水利科技与经济,2007,13(11):856-857.
[3]徐振辞,郭永辰.城市不同下垫面条件的降雨径流模拟试验研究[J].南水北调与水利科技,2007,5(1):64-66.
[4]张雪莹,邵荣敏.天津市城市雨洪灾害分析及防灾减灾措施的探讨[J].海河水利,2004,3:59-60.
[5] Department of Environment U K.Design and analysis of urban storm drainage-the wallingford procedure[M].Oxfordshire: Hydraulics Research Limited,1989.
[6] Urban Water Resources Research Council of the ASCE . Design and construction of urban storm water management system[M].New York:ASCE,1992.
[7]谢莹莹.城市排水管网系统模拟方法和应用[D].上海:同济大学环境科学与工程学院,2007.
[8] Choi K,Ball E J.Parameter estimation for urban runoff modelling[J].Urban Water,2002,4(1):31-41.
[9] Nelen F . On the potential of real time control of urban drainage systems[J].Water Science and Technology,1993,27(5):112-122.
[10] Rauch W,Seggelke K,Brown R,et al.Integrated Approaches in Urban Storm Drainage[J].Environmental Management,2005,34(4):396-409.
[11]岑国平,詹道江,洪嘉年.城市雨水管道计算模型[J].中国给水排水,1993,9(1):37-40.
[12]周玉文.城市排水系统非恒定流模拟技术研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨建筑大学环境工程学院,1998.
[13]周玉文.城市排水系统非恒定流模拟模型研究[J].北京工业大学学报,2001,27(1):84-86.
[14]刘俊.城市雨洪模型研究[J].河海大学学报,1997,25(6):21-24.
[15] Yin Jian min,Gu Xiao qing,Cai Zhe,et al.Study and application of rainstorm waterlogging mathematical simulation in Nanchang city[J].SPIE,doi:10.1117 / 12.697800.
[16]赵雅娟.深圳罗湖小区排水系统模型研究[D].广州:中山大学地理科学与规划学院,2001.
[17]王喜冬.香港岛南区雨水管网改造总体规划概述[J].给水排水,2005,31(6):103-107.
[18]高林峰.大型污水输送系统的水力模拟模型[J].上海水务,2004,20(1):16-18.
[19]董欣,陈吉宁,赵冬泉.SWMM模型在城市排水系统规划中的应用[J].给水排水,2006,32(5):106-109.
[20]刘俊,郭亮辉,张建涛,等.基于SWMM模拟上海市区排水及地面淹水过程[J].中国给水排水,2006,22(21):64-70.
[21]刘兴坡,刘遂庆,李树平,等.镇江市主城区排水管网计算机建模方法[J].中国给水排水,2007,23(11):42-46.
[22] Fiksel J.Risk analysis in the 1990s[J].Risk Analysis,1990,10(2):195-196.
[23] Klügel U J,Mualchin L,Panza F G.A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis[J].Engineering Geology,2006,88(1):1-22.
[24] Dales Y M,Reed W D.Regional flood and storm hazard assessment[M].UK:Institute of Hydrology,1989.
[25] Gheorghe V A , Mock R , Kr?ger W . Risk assessment of regional systems[J].Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2000,70(2):141-156.
[26] Chouli E,Aftias E,Claude J.Applying storm water management in Greek cities:learning from the European experience[J].Desalination,2007,210(1):61-68.
[27] Jo Y,Crowl A D.Individual risk analysis of high-pressure natural gas pipelines[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2008,21(6):589-595.
[28]王彪,李田.排水管道风险分析初探[J].中国给水排水,2007,23(13):l-4.
[29]朱婷.雨水管网运行风险分析和模拟方法[D].上海:同济大学环境科学与工程学院,2008.
[30] Zoppou C.Review of urban storm water models[J].Environmental Modelling & Software,2001,16(3):195-231.
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