工程项目清洁生产方案的优化方法研究
|
摘要
在我国,我国目前清洁生产实践开展主要针对的运营项目的节能减排评估和改造,这些项目往往是环保和节能等方面难以适应或达到新的行业标准或所在地区的标准。但这些工程项目的清洁生产机会较少,不能够综合进行规划设计,而且改造的成本也较高。相反,新建的工程项目虽有清洁生产的要求,但是没有合理有效的方法进行工程项目方案的清洁生产设计和有效的经济评价。
清洁生产的研究主要集中在企业的清洁生产改造和企业整体的清洁生产现状和发展方案的评价。由于工程项目的方案评价方法和管理方法无法应用于清洁生产的实践中,具备清洁生产机会的工程项目无法进行前期的清洁生产方案设计和有效的清洁生产评价。与从工程项目的全生命周期来看,清洁生产机会往往较多存在于项目初步设计以前的各阶段,在项目方案提出时进行项目方案的清洁生产优化设计是必要的。此外,由于项目清洁生产方案与传统项目方案的特殊性,清洁生产更注重项目长期的经济价值和清洁生产战略目标的实现。在评价时采用传统的现金流折现方式不能够将清洁生产的价值体现出来,往往清洁生产项目方案传统方式评价时处于劣势。因此设计一套清洁生产工程项目的方案优化的方法和程序,以及对优化方案进行有效评价的方法是极为重要。
本文综合运用层次分析法、模糊数学综合评价、流程分析、实物期权的理论和方法,设计出一套系统的项目清洁生产方案的优化方法。能够将企业清洁生产的战略目标和项目目标相统一,以及将项目的经济目标和清洁生产目标进行集成。通过这套方法,能够有效的指导清洁生产工程方案设计和企业的清洁生产实践。通过本文设计的系统化工程项目清洁生产方案优化分析方法,可以对解决清洁生产工程项目方案优化问题提供合理的方案。
The practice of cleaner production currently carried out in China is mainly focusing on the evaluation and alternation of the operating projects on energy-saving and emission reduction aspects. These projects mentioned above, are often difficult to meet the standard of environmental protection and energy saving of their industry or their local provisions. However, these projects have fewer opportunities of cleaner production which cannot be put all the elements involved in production into programming and designing, but also the higher cost of the transformation. In contrast, the new planning projects although aiming at cleaner production, there is no effective way to design and the CDM project and to analyze the economic evaluation.
Research on cleaner production focuses on transformation of the company from traditional production style to the cleaner one and the evaluation on its current profiles and plans. As the methods of project evaluation methods and project management cannot be applied in this field, CDM opportunities of the projects can not be identified, programmed, and evaluated. Judging from the total life cycle of the project, majority of the cleaner production opportunities exists in preliminary design phase of the project. It is necessary to optimize the project proposals in the CDM way. In addition, clean production projects will pay more attention to long-term economic value and strategic objectives of the company compared with traditional ones. But the traditional evaluation with a discounted cash flow method cannot add the potential value to the CDM projects. In this way, most CDM proposals suffer when evaluated with traditional ones. Therefore, it is essential to work out the methodology of optimization of CDM proposals of the project.
In this paper, theory and methods of analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, process analysis and real options, are well-integrated to methodology of optimization of the CDM program. The methodology combines strategic goals of a company with the objectives of the project. Also, it integrates project's economic objectives with its cleaner production goals. Through this method, it is effective to guide the design of cleaner production projects and the practice of clean production. In this paper, the methodology systematically designed can bring forward reasonable proposal to optimize of the programs of CDM projects.
清洁生产的研究主要集中在企业的清洁生产改造和企业整体的清洁生产现状和发展方案的评价。由于工程项目的方案评价方法和管理方法无法应用于清洁生产的实践中,具备清洁生产机会的工程项目无法进行前期的清洁生产方案设计和有效的清洁生产评价。与从工程项目的全生命周期来看,清洁生产机会往往较多存在于项目初步设计以前的各阶段,在项目方案提出时进行项目方案的清洁生产优化设计是必要的。此外,由于项目清洁生产方案与传统项目方案的特殊性,清洁生产更注重项目长期的经济价值和清洁生产战略目标的实现。在评价时采用传统的现金流折现方式不能够将清洁生产的价值体现出来,往往清洁生产项目方案传统方式评价时处于劣势。因此设计一套清洁生产工程项目的方案优化的方法和程序,以及对优化方案进行有效评价的方法是极为重要。
本文综合运用层次分析法、模糊数学综合评价、流程分析、实物期权的理论和方法,设计出一套系统的项目清洁生产方案的优化方法。能够将企业清洁生产的战略目标和项目目标相统一,以及将项目的经济目标和清洁生产目标进行集成。通过这套方法,能够有效的指导清洁生产工程方案设计和企业的清洁生产实践。通过本文设计的系统化工程项目清洁生产方案优化分析方法,可以对解决清洁生产工程项目方案优化问题提供合理的方案。
The practice of cleaner production currently carried out in China is mainly focusing on the evaluation and alternation of the operating projects on energy-saving and emission reduction aspects. These projects mentioned above, are often difficult to meet the standard of environmental protection and energy saving of their industry or their local provisions. However, these projects have fewer opportunities of cleaner production which cannot be put all the elements involved in production into programming and designing, but also the higher cost of the transformation. In contrast, the new planning projects although aiming at cleaner production, there is no effective way to design and the CDM project and to analyze the economic evaluation.
Research on cleaner production focuses on transformation of the company from traditional production style to the cleaner one and the evaluation on its current profiles and plans. As the methods of project evaluation methods and project management cannot be applied in this field, CDM opportunities of the projects can not be identified, programmed, and evaluated. Judging from the total life cycle of the project, majority of the cleaner production opportunities exists in preliminary design phase of the project. It is necessary to optimize the project proposals in the CDM way. In addition, clean production projects will pay more attention to long-term economic value and strategic objectives of the company compared with traditional ones. But the traditional evaluation with a discounted cash flow method cannot add the potential value to the CDM projects. In this way, most CDM proposals suffer when evaluated with traditional ones. Therefore, it is essential to work out the methodology of optimization of CDM proposals of the project.
In this paper, theory and methods of analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, process analysis and real options, are well-integrated to methodology of optimization of the CDM program. The methodology combines strategic goals of a company with the objectives of the project. Also, it integrates project's economic objectives with its cleaner production goals. Through this method, it is effective to guide the design of cleaner production projects and the practice of clean production. In this paper, the methodology systematically designed can bring forward reasonable proposal to optimize of the programs of CDM projects.
引文
[1]崔兆杰,张凯,循环经济理论与方法,北京:科学出版社,2008,3:189-190
[2]黎雪林,我国循环经济的系统分析、评价与管理研究,广州:暨南大学,2007,34~36
[3] Xiaohong Zhang,Wenju Jiang,Shihuai Deng,Kui Peng,Energy evaluation of the sustainability of Chinese steel production during 1998–2004,Journal of Cleaner Production,2009,17(11): 1030-1038
[4]刘健,张清宇,清洁生产的可操作性,环境导报,2000 (02) :27-28
[5]冯为民,任宏,曲成平,梁前明,建设项目综合评价体系及模型研究,重庆建筑大学学报,2004,26(6):103~111
[6]李立峰,张树深,清洁生产定量评价方法的研究与应用,化工装备技术,2003,24(1):49~53
[7]孙涵,陈晨,基于BP神经网络的钢铁企业清洁生产评价方法研究,华东理工大学学报:社会科学版,2007,22(2):74~78
[8]魏冉,我国企业技术创新中清洁生产指标的应用与经济性分析,集团经济研究,2007,14(5):90~91
[9]向夕品,郑旭煦,化工行业清洁生产指标体系及应用研究,渝州大学学报:自然科学版,2002,19(3):22~26
[10]关新玉,孙赛,张紫平,清洁生产指标体系在煤炭行业环境影响评价中的应用,煤炭工程,2008,25(9):81~83
[11]陈淑连,周宾,朱荣国,清洁生产模式分析及在企业水资源再生利用中的应用,甘肃科技纵横,2008(5):85~86
[12] Sara González-García,Almudena Hospido,M Teresa Moreira,Javier Romero,Gumersindo Feijoo,Environmental impact assessment of total chlorine free pulp from Eucalyptus globules in Spain,Journal of Cleaner Production,2009,17(11):1010-1016
[13] Vincenzo Giorgio Dovì,Ferenc Friedler,Donald Huisingh,Ji?i Jaromir Kleme,Cleaner energy for sustainable future,Journal of Cleaner Production,2009,17(10): 889-895
[14]孙启宏,作为清洁生产工具的生命周期评价:在中国的应用前景,钱易,清洁生产与循环经济——概念、方法和案例,北京:清华大学出版社,2006,106~110
[15] Karen Holm,Olsen,J?rgen Fenhann,Sustainable development benefits of clean development mechanism projects: A new methodology for sustainability assessment based on text analysis of the project design documents submitted for validation,Energy Policy,2008,36(8):2819-2830
[16] Alexandros Flamos,Haris Doukas,Konstantinos D,Patlitzianas,John Psarras,CDM-PAT:A decision support tool for the pre-assessment of CDM projects,International Journal of Computer Applications in Technology (IJCAT),2005,22,419~433
[17] Patrick Nussbaumer,On the contribution of labelled Certified Emission Reductions to sustainable development:A multi-criteria evaluation of CDM projects,Energy Policy,2009,37(1):91-101
[18] Charikleia Karakosta,Haris Doukas,John Psarras,Sustainable energy technologies in Israel under the CDM:Needs and prospects,Renewable Energy,2009,34(5):1399–1406
[19] Philipp Weiss,Thierry Lefevre,Dominik Most,Modelling the impacts of CDM incentives for the Thai electricity sector,Energy Policy,2008,36,1134–1147,
[20]马向东,可行性研究在项目决策中的应用与完善,[硕士学位论文],天津:天津大学,2006
[21]周学武,王芳,农业综合开发项目优化设计及典型案例分析——以江汉平原荆州市为例,长江流域资源与环境,2006,15 (1):76~80
[22] Wilkinson,D, Bailey,W,J, Cou?t,B, Alternative approaches to real option valuation: A critical appraisal,Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE),Dallas,TX,United states: Proceedings - SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition,2005,P 4117-4131
[23] Lenos Trigeorgis,实物期权(林谦) ,北京:清华大学出版社,2007
[24]刘启承,灰色关联度分析法在清洁生产方案研制过程中的应用,[硕士学位论文],重庆:重庆大学,2007
[25]张松滨,李万海,王红,灰色系统决策与环境投资项目优化选择,环境保护科学,1997,23(15):26~29
[26] F,Freire,S Thore and P,Ferrao,Life Cycle Activity Analysis:Logistics and Environmental Policies for Bottled Water in Portugal,or Spectrum,Quantitative Approaches in Management,2001,23,15~182
[27]于福慧,基于TRIZ和QFD的产品绿色设计研究,[硕士学位论文],天津:天津理工大学,2008
[28] Tao Lin,Jian-yi Lina,Sheng-hui Cuia,Scott Camerona,Using a networkframework to quantitatively select ecological indicators,Ecological Indicators,2009,9(6):1114-1120
[29] Kristina Difs,Maria Danestiga,Louise Trygga,Increased use of district heating in industrial processes– Impacts on heat load duration,Applied Energy ,2009,86,(11):2327-2334
[30]尹洪超,企业能源审计与节能技术,辽宁大连:大连理工大学出版社,2006,43~64
[31] Hsueh-Hsien Chang,Hong-Tzer Yang,Applying a non-intrusive energy-management system to economic dispatch for a cogeneration system and power utility,Applied Energy,:2335-2343 [ 32]任有中,能源工程管理,北京:中国电力出版社,2007,53~85
[33] Johan ?stlin,Erik Sundin,Mats Bj?rkman,Product life-cycle implications for remanufacturing strategies,Journal of Cleaner Production,2009,17( 11):999-1009
[34]广东省经济贸易委员会,广东省科学技术厅,广东省环境保护局,清洁生产案例分析,北京:中国环境科学出版社,2005,16~22 [35 ]张天柱,石磊,贾小平,清洁生产导论,北京:高等教育出版社,2006,125~137
[36]崔兆杰,谢锋,固体废物的循环经济——管理与规划的方法和实践,北京:科学出版社,32~33
[37]国家气候变化对策协调小组办公室,清华大学何能与新能源技术研究院,中国情节发展机制项目开发指南,北京:中国环境科学出版社,2006,29~35
[38] Hoi Ying Wong,Yu Wai Lo,Option pricing with mean reversion and stochastic volatility,European Journal of Operational Research,2009,197(1):179–187
[39] Georgios N,Angelou,Anastasios A,Economides,A compound real option and AHP methodology for evaluating ICT business alternatives,Telematics and Informatics,2009,26(4): 353-374
[40]黄鹍,陈森发,周振国等,生态工业园区综合评价研究,科研管理,2004,25(6):92~95
[41]张丽娜,AHP-模糊综合评价法在生态工业园区评价中的应用[硕士学位论文],大连:大连理工大学,2006
[42]范永勤,邵珠杰,余世强,运用过程分析法有效推进清洁生产,石油化工环境保护,2007,27(4):12~15
[43] Archambeault L, Application of artificial intelligence to real option project valuation and mine optimization,Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy ,Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy Publication Series,AIMMEM,2007,p159-168
[44]魏素艳,肖淑芳,陈琰,高新技术企业实物期权的识别与估价,中国会计学会高等工科院校分会,中国会计学会高等工科院校分会2007年学术年会暨第十四届年会论文集,中国浙江杭州:合肥工业大学管理学院,2007,291~292
[45]高建,周游,郑敬辉,技术价格评估中实物期权的应用,商业时代,2005(8):45~46
[46]张天蔚,期权定价理论在企业循环经济项目投资决策中的应用,中国管理信息化,2008,22(11):46~48
[2]黎雪林,我国循环经济的系统分析、评价与管理研究,广州:暨南大学,2007,34~36
[3] Xiaohong Zhang,Wenju Jiang,Shihuai Deng,Kui Peng,Energy evaluation of the sustainability of Chinese steel production during 1998–2004,Journal of Cleaner Production,2009,17(11): 1030-1038
[4]刘健,张清宇,清洁生产的可操作性,环境导报,2000 (02) :27-28
[5]冯为民,任宏,曲成平,梁前明,建设项目综合评价体系及模型研究,重庆建筑大学学报,2004,26(6):103~111
[6]李立峰,张树深,清洁生产定量评价方法的研究与应用,化工装备技术,2003,24(1):49~53
[7]孙涵,陈晨,基于BP神经网络的钢铁企业清洁生产评价方法研究,华东理工大学学报:社会科学版,2007,22(2):74~78
[8]魏冉,我国企业技术创新中清洁生产指标的应用与经济性分析,集团经济研究,2007,14(5):90~91
[9]向夕品,郑旭煦,化工行业清洁生产指标体系及应用研究,渝州大学学报:自然科学版,2002,19(3):22~26
[10]关新玉,孙赛,张紫平,清洁生产指标体系在煤炭行业环境影响评价中的应用,煤炭工程,2008,25(9):81~83
[11]陈淑连,周宾,朱荣国,清洁生产模式分析及在企业水资源再生利用中的应用,甘肃科技纵横,2008(5):85~86
[12] Sara González-García,Almudena Hospido,M Teresa Moreira,Javier Romero,Gumersindo Feijoo,Environmental impact assessment of total chlorine free pulp from Eucalyptus globules in Spain,Journal of Cleaner Production,2009,17(11):1010-1016
[13] Vincenzo Giorgio Dovì,Ferenc Friedler,Donald Huisingh,Ji?i Jaromir Kleme,Cleaner energy for sustainable future,Journal of Cleaner Production,2009,17(10): 889-895
[14]孙启宏,作为清洁生产工具的生命周期评价:在中国的应用前景,钱易,清洁生产与循环经济——概念、方法和案例,北京:清华大学出版社,2006,106~110
[15] Karen Holm,Olsen,J?rgen Fenhann,Sustainable development benefits of clean development mechanism projects: A new methodology for sustainability assessment based on text analysis of the project design documents submitted for validation,Energy Policy,2008,36(8):2819-2830
[16] Alexandros Flamos,Haris Doukas,Konstantinos D,Patlitzianas,John Psarras,CDM-PAT:A decision support tool for the pre-assessment of CDM projects,International Journal of Computer Applications in Technology (IJCAT),2005,22,419~433
[17] Patrick Nussbaumer,On the contribution of labelled Certified Emission Reductions to sustainable development:A multi-criteria evaluation of CDM projects,Energy Policy,2009,37(1):91-101
[18] Charikleia Karakosta,Haris Doukas,John Psarras,Sustainable energy technologies in Israel under the CDM:Needs and prospects,Renewable Energy,2009,34(5):1399–1406
[19] Philipp Weiss,Thierry Lefevre,Dominik Most,Modelling the impacts of CDM incentives for the Thai electricity sector,Energy Policy,2008,36,1134–1147,
[20]马向东,可行性研究在项目决策中的应用与完善,[硕士学位论文],天津:天津大学,2006
[21]周学武,王芳,农业综合开发项目优化设计及典型案例分析——以江汉平原荆州市为例,长江流域资源与环境,2006,15 (1):76~80
[22] Wilkinson,D, Bailey,W,J, Cou?t,B, Alternative approaches to real option valuation: A critical appraisal,Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE),Dallas,TX,United states: Proceedings - SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition,2005,P 4117-4131
[23] Lenos Trigeorgis,实物期权(林谦) ,北京:清华大学出版社,2007
[24]刘启承,灰色关联度分析法在清洁生产方案研制过程中的应用,[硕士学位论文],重庆:重庆大学,2007
[25]张松滨,李万海,王红,灰色系统决策与环境投资项目优化选择,环境保护科学,1997,23(15):26~29
[26] F,Freire,S Thore and P,Ferrao,Life Cycle Activity Analysis:Logistics and Environmental Policies for Bottled Water in Portugal,or Spectrum,Quantitative Approaches in Management,2001,23,15~182
[27]于福慧,基于TRIZ和QFD的产品绿色设计研究,[硕士学位论文],天津:天津理工大学,2008
[28] Tao Lin,Jian-yi Lina,Sheng-hui Cuia,Scott Camerona,Using a networkframework to quantitatively select ecological indicators,Ecological Indicators,2009,9(6):1114-1120
[29] Kristina Difs,Maria Danestiga,Louise Trygga,Increased use of district heating in industrial processes– Impacts on heat load duration,Applied Energy ,2009,86,(11):2327-2334
[30]尹洪超,企业能源审计与节能技术,辽宁大连:大连理工大学出版社,2006,43~64
[31] Hsueh-Hsien Chang,Hong-Tzer Yang,Applying a non-intrusive energy-management system to economic dispatch for a cogeneration system and power utility,Applied Energy,:2335-2343 [ 32]任有中,能源工程管理,北京:中国电力出版社,2007,53~85
[33] Johan ?stlin,Erik Sundin,Mats Bj?rkman,Product life-cycle implications for remanufacturing strategies,Journal of Cleaner Production,2009,17( 11):999-1009
[34]广东省经济贸易委员会,广东省科学技术厅,广东省环境保护局,清洁生产案例分析,北京:中国环境科学出版社,2005,16~22 [35 ]张天柱,石磊,贾小平,清洁生产导论,北京:高等教育出版社,2006,125~137
[36]崔兆杰,谢锋,固体废物的循环经济——管理与规划的方法和实践,北京:科学出版社,32~33
[37]国家气候变化对策协调小组办公室,清华大学何能与新能源技术研究院,中国情节发展机制项目开发指南,北京:中国环境科学出版社,2006,29~35
[38] Hoi Ying Wong,Yu Wai Lo,Option pricing with mean reversion and stochastic volatility,European Journal of Operational Research,2009,197(1):179–187
[39] Georgios N,Angelou,Anastasios A,Economides,A compound real option and AHP methodology for evaluating ICT business alternatives,Telematics and Informatics,2009,26(4): 353-374
[40]黄鹍,陈森发,周振国等,生态工业园区综合评价研究,科研管理,2004,25(6):92~95
[41]张丽娜,AHP-模糊综合评价法在生态工业园区评价中的应用[硕士学位论文],大连:大连理工大学,2006
[42]范永勤,邵珠杰,余世强,运用过程分析法有效推进清洁生产,石油化工环境保护,2007,27(4):12~15
[43] Archambeault L, Application of artificial intelligence to real option project valuation and mine optimization,Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy ,Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy Publication Series,AIMMEM,2007,p159-168
[44]魏素艳,肖淑芳,陈琰,高新技术企业实物期权的识别与估价,中国会计学会高等工科院校分会,中国会计学会高等工科院校分会2007年学术年会暨第十四届年会论文集,中国浙江杭州:合肥工业大学管理学院,2007,291~292
[45]高建,周游,郑敬辉,技术价格评估中实物期权的应用,商业时代,2005(8):45~46
[46]张天蔚,期权定价理论在企业循环经济项目投资决策中的应用,中国管理信息化,2008,22(11):46~48
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |