贸易政策与中国产业结构优化研究
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摘要
在开放经济条件下,贸易对一国经济发展深具重要意义,尤其体现在产业结构的调整与升级上。中国在改革开放后的三十年以来,一直坚持执行资源秉赋比较优势的贸易理论,大力发展劳动密集型可贸易品的生产与输出,带动经济高速增长,取得瞩目成绩,同时三次产业结构以及以资本和技术密集型部门产值占工业总产值比重所衡量的工业结构也在逐步提升。在经济全球化浪潮中,中国调整和优化产业结构,不能封闭进行,需要利用国外技术、资金,也需要国外市场,对外贸易可从供求的两方面促进和优化产业结构,而贸易对促进一国经济增长和产业结构优化作用的效果,同这个国家所采取的贸易战略及政策息息相关,特别是,目前我国经济若要实现可持续发展,结构调整已经成为当务之急的情况下,研究对外贸易政策在推进我国结构调整中的机制及条件对于我国目前转变经济增长方式具有较强理论及现实意义。
本文以中国改革开放及加入WTO为分析背景,以国际贸易以及产业结构升级等相关理论作为理论支撑的基础,在对中国对外贸易及产业结构的演变、发展全面分析的基础上,建构符合中国实情的理论模型,同时采用面板及时序数据,运用计量模型,探讨对外贸易政策在促进产业结构升级的中的机制及条件并提出相应的政策建议。
论文具体的结构安排如下。
第一章为绪论。首先,论述了文章的研究背景与意义。其次,分别对国内外贸易影响产业结构的经典理论及实证结果进行综述,在深入研究的基础上,得出了相关研究的主要内容、所运用的方法、研究的思路及特点并指出了研究中的不足与缺陷。最后,提出本文的研究内容、方法及创新与不足。
第二章首先对贸易政策、产业结构优化的内涵进行界定。其次,梳理了现有的理论与实证的研究成果,总结出对外贸易可从供应、需求两方面,通过促进消费升级、优化资源配置、增加资本积累、加速技术进步等管道对产业结构产生作用。
第三章中首先回顾了我国改革开放后的贸易政策演变并详尽分析了出口退税、汇率等贸易政策工具。其次,对中国对外贸易和产业结构的现状和变化进行分析了总结和分析。研究结果显示,经历三十年的对外开放,我国无论三次产业结构还是工业内部结构都获得了较大的提升。最后,以日本为例分析对外贸易在其产业结构演变中所起到的作用和贸易政策在促进对外贸易增长和贸易结构调整中所扮演的角色,进而得出可供我们借鉴的经验。
第四章为本文的主体部分。首先,根据中国改革开放后的资源禀赋状况,依据刘易斯-拉尼斯-费景汉的二元经济模型,建构一个符合中国实情特征的开放经济模型,分析了无资源限制下贸易政策对产业结构调整的机制与条件。研究发现,在内需不足的情况下,依据比较优势理论发展对外贸易,可使经济迅速起飞。在不断累积资本的同时,获得技术,促进经济快速转型。在其过程中,农业富余劳动力的存在是中国劳动密集品比较优势的基础,贸易品部门获得发展,非贸易品的投资及产出也不会因劳动力成本的提高而被排挤。当富余劳动不在时,贸易对产业结构调整的促进作用就会减缓。其次,构建了一个改进的corden“矛盾模型”,以出口退税政策为例分析受到资源限制以及加入非贸易部门的情况下,贸易政策对产业结构进行调整的机制与条件。研究表明,提高出口退税率可使得贸易品部门因“资源移动”效应获得发展,三次产业间比例籍此调整：通过将贸易品部门划分为“资本密集”及“劳动密集”品部门得出差别出口退税政策的实施可优化出口品结构,由此产业结构可进一步升级。
第五章是第四章理论模型的实证延伸。在这一章里方法上将采用面板及时序数据利用多种计量模型进行估测、验证与分析。内容上分两个层次来进行,首先是,贸易政策对贸易总量的激励作用以及贸易结构优化中的实际效果估测与分析,其次为贸易总量增加与贸易结构提升在产业结构提升中的作用实际效果估测与分析。研究结果显示,中国所采取的贸易政策有效的促进了中国的出口并提升了出口品结构。通过建立一个改进的更符合中国实情的Chenery(1968)的经典计量模型对贸易在中国工业化进程中的作用进行分析：省际面板分析结果显示,对外贸易对中国的工业化进程有长期显著的促进作用,但这种作用会受到劳动力价格的约束,并且工业化的促进效应呈现出明显的地区和时间差异。东部地区对外贸易的促进效应远高于中西部地区,而加入WTO后对外贸易对各地区的促进效应更为显著。VAR模型的结果显示无论从协整分析的弹性估计值、脉冲响应函数的动态响应路径与方差分解的变动贡献率上,都显示出对外贸易在对工业化促进作用中扮演攸关重要的角色。而对外贸易只对东部地区的工业结构的优化有显著的促进作用。对外贸易结构提升的产业结构优化作用的实证研究结果显示,两者之间存在长期均衡关系。
第六章是结论及政策建议。本章对全文进行了总结,并结合相关理论和我国的实际国情分别给出合理解释。最后,在本文理论分析及实证检验结果的基础上提出相应政策建议。
Under the open economy condition, foreign trade carries important implication for the economic development of the country, especially for its industrial structure adjustment and upgrading. Since adopting the policy of the reform and opening up three decades ago, China has been insisting on the implementation of comparative advantage trade theory to develop labor-intensive tradable goods production and exports and has attained the impressive achievements. At the same time the industries structure and the manufacturing industrial structure also increased gradually. Under the tide of economic globalization, adjustment and optimization of industrial structure needs to use foreign technology, investment and foreign markets. Foreign trade can optimize the industrial structure in the supply and demand, but the effect of trade to promote the industrial structure upgrading are closely related to the trade strategy and policy. Especially, China want to achieve sustainable development and structural adjustment has become the most important issue. Under such environment studying the mechanism and conditions of the foreign trade policy in promoting China's structural adjustment has strong theoretical and practical significance.
Based on the china's resources endowment and international trade, industrial Organization and other related theories, the dissertation studies the evolution of China's foreign trade and the industrial structure, develops theoretical model which is consistent with the Chinese characteristics fact, and uses panel and time series data to set up econometric model to explore the mechanism and conditions of foreign trade policy in promoting industrial upgrading and proposes the corresponding policy recommendations.
The first chapter is an introduction. Firstly, we introduce the research background and significance of the dissertation. Secondly, we review the relevant domestic and international studies to obtain their studying methods and point out the shortcomings and disadvantages. Finally, we point out the contents, innovation and weakness of the dissertation.
In the second chapter, we first define the concept of the trade policy and industrial structure optimization. Then, we summarize the two channels of foreign trade to promote the industry structure from supply and demand. by promoting the consumption upgrading, by optimizing resources, by increasing the capital accumulation and by accelerating technical progress.
In the third chapter, we first review the trade policy evolution during the period of Chinese reform and opening-up and analyze the trade policies tools especially the export tax rebate policy and exchange rate policy. Second, we study the characteristics of China's foreign trade and industrial structure's finding that three industrial structures and the industry internal structure has obtained the prominent promotion after experiencing 30 years opening to the outside world. Finally, taking Japan as an example, we analysize the role that foreign trade plays in its industrial structure evolution, in promoting foreign trade growth and in the trade structural adjustment.
ChapterⅣis the main part of the dissertation. Firstly, according to china's resources endowments, we build an open economy model which is consistent with the Chinese characteristics fact and combine with Lewis-Ranis-Fei model to analysize the mechanism and conditions of trade to China's industrial restructuring and upgrade under the dualistic economies environment. Our analysis results is that in the absence of sufficient domestic demand, developing country can promote the development of foreign trade to make rapid economic take-off, based on the theory of comparative advantage and can accumulate capital, obtain advanced technologies and promote economic transition from agriculture to industry; At the same time, the large amount of redundant labor in agriculture is the base of comparative advantage of China's labor-intensive goods in the world market. The trade goods sector can get fast development while the non-tradable goods sector's investment and output will not be squeezed out because of the increased labor costs. However, when the surplus labor is depleted, the trade's role in promoting industrial restructuring will be limited. Secondly, Based on the classic "conflict model", we propose an improved open economy model to analyze the mechanisms and conditions of export tax rebate policy affecting China's industrial structure adjusting. The model is consistent with China's economic characteristic facts and assumes trade goods as the price taker. Normative study shows that raising the export tax rebate rate can promote the output of the tradable goods sectors due to "resource movement" effect which will upgrading the industrial structure. By dividing the tradable sector into the "capital intensive" sector and the "labor intensive" sector, we get that the implementation of the differential export tax rebate policy can optimize the export product structure and promote the manufacturing industry structure at the same time.
ChapterⅤis the empirical extension of theoretical models. This chapter studies the effects of trade policy to promote the industri upgrading in two levels. One is the effect of trade policy on trade promoting and trade structural optimization, the othe is the study of trade volume increase and trade structure upgrading on industrial structure optimization. The results show that China's trade policies adopted by the china government effectively promotes China's exports and improves the structure of export products. By establishing an improved Chenery (1968) classical econometric model, we analysized the effect of trade on the industrialization process of China.:Provincial panel data analysis results show that foreign trade has been of an significant role in promoting China's industrialization, but this effect is restricted by the labor costs and shows significant differences because of different regions and time. VAR model results including the cointegration analysis in terms of elasticity estimates, impulse response functions and variance decomposition of the dynamic response path of contribution rate of change show that foreign trade play an important role in promoting the industrialization.. However, the foreign trade can greatly promote the optimization of industrial structure of the eastern region. At last, Cointegration analysis result shows that there are long-term equilibrium relationship between the export structure and industrial structure.
ChapterⅥis the conclusion and policy suggestions. This chapter presents a summation on previous theoretical theory and empirical results and recommends reliable explanation. Relevant political implications are proposed at last.
本文以中国改革开放及加入WTO为分析背景,以国际贸易以及产业结构升级等相关理论作为理论支撑的基础,在对中国对外贸易及产业结构的演变、发展全面分析的基础上,建构符合中国实情的理论模型,同时采用面板及时序数据,运用计量模型,探讨对外贸易政策在促进产业结构升级的中的机制及条件并提出相应的政策建议。
论文具体的结构安排如下。
第一章为绪论。首先,论述了文章的研究背景与意义。其次,分别对国内外贸易影响产业结构的经典理论及实证结果进行综述,在深入研究的基础上,得出了相关研究的主要内容、所运用的方法、研究的思路及特点并指出了研究中的不足与缺陷。最后,提出本文的研究内容、方法及创新与不足。
第二章首先对贸易政策、产业结构优化的内涵进行界定。其次,梳理了现有的理论与实证的研究成果,总结出对外贸易可从供应、需求两方面,通过促进消费升级、优化资源配置、增加资本积累、加速技术进步等管道对产业结构产生作用。
第三章中首先回顾了我国改革开放后的贸易政策演变并详尽分析了出口退税、汇率等贸易政策工具。其次,对中国对外贸易和产业结构的现状和变化进行分析了总结和分析。研究结果显示,经历三十年的对外开放,我国无论三次产业结构还是工业内部结构都获得了较大的提升。最后,以日本为例分析对外贸易在其产业结构演变中所起到的作用和贸易政策在促进对外贸易增长和贸易结构调整中所扮演的角色,进而得出可供我们借鉴的经验。
第四章为本文的主体部分。首先,根据中国改革开放后的资源禀赋状况,依据刘易斯-拉尼斯-费景汉的二元经济模型,建构一个符合中国实情特征的开放经济模型,分析了无资源限制下贸易政策对产业结构调整的机制与条件。研究发现,在内需不足的情况下,依据比较优势理论发展对外贸易,可使经济迅速起飞。在不断累积资本的同时,获得技术,促进经济快速转型。在其过程中,农业富余劳动力的存在是中国劳动密集品比较优势的基础,贸易品部门获得发展,非贸易品的投资及产出也不会因劳动力成本的提高而被排挤。当富余劳动不在时,贸易对产业结构调整的促进作用就会减缓。其次,构建了一个改进的corden“矛盾模型”,以出口退税政策为例分析受到资源限制以及加入非贸易部门的情况下,贸易政策对产业结构进行调整的机制与条件。研究表明,提高出口退税率可使得贸易品部门因“资源移动”效应获得发展,三次产业间比例籍此调整：通过将贸易品部门划分为“资本密集”及“劳动密集”品部门得出差别出口退税政策的实施可优化出口品结构,由此产业结构可进一步升级。
第五章是第四章理论模型的实证延伸。在这一章里方法上将采用面板及时序数据利用多种计量模型进行估测、验证与分析。内容上分两个层次来进行,首先是,贸易政策对贸易总量的激励作用以及贸易结构优化中的实际效果估测与分析,其次为贸易总量增加与贸易结构提升在产业结构提升中的作用实际效果估测与分析。研究结果显示,中国所采取的贸易政策有效的促进了中国的出口并提升了出口品结构。通过建立一个改进的更符合中国实情的Chenery(1968)的经典计量模型对贸易在中国工业化进程中的作用进行分析：省际面板分析结果显示,对外贸易对中国的工业化进程有长期显著的促进作用,但这种作用会受到劳动力价格的约束,并且工业化的促进效应呈现出明显的地区和时间差异。东部地区对外贸易的促进效应远高于中西部地区,而加入WTO后对外贸易对各地区的促进效应更为显著。VAR模型的结果显示无论从协整分析的弹性估计值、脉冲响应函数的动态响应路径与方差分解的变动贡献率上,都显示出对外贸易在对工业化促进作用中扮演攸关重要的角色。而对外贸易只对东部地区的工业结构的优化有显著的促进作用。对外贸易结构提升的产业结构优化作用的实证研究结果显示,两者之间存在长期均衡关系。
第六章是结论及政策建议。本章对全文进行了总结,并结合相关理论和我国的实际国情分别给出合理解释。最后,在本文理论分析及实证检验结果的基础上提出相应政策建议。
Under the open economy condition, foreign trade carries important implication for the economic development of the country, especially for its industrial structure adjustment and upgrading. Since adopting the policy of the reform and opening up three decades ago, China has been insisting on the implementation of comparative advantage trade theory to develop labor-intensive tradable goods production and exports and has attained the impressive achievements. At the same time the industries structure and the manufacturing industrial structure also increased gradually. Under the tide of economic globalization, adjustment and optimization of industrial structure needs to use foreign technology, investment and foreign markets. Foreign trade can optimize the industrial structure in the supply and demand, but the effect of trade to promote the industrial structure upgrading are closely related to the trade strategy and policy. Especially, China want to achieve sustainable development and structural adjustment has become the most important issue. Under such environment studying the mechanism and conditions of the foreign trade policy in promoting China's structural adjustment has strong theoretical and practical significance.
Based on the china's resources endowment and international trade, industrial Organization and other related theories, the dissertation studies the evolution of China's foreign trade and the industrial structure, develops theoretical model which is consistent with the Chinese characteristics fact, and uses panel and time series data to set up econometric model to explore the mechanism and conditions of foreign trade policy in promoting industrial upgrading and proposes the corresponding policy recommendations.
The first chapter is an introduction. Firstly, we introduce the research background and significance of the dissertation. Secondly, we review the relevant domestic and international studies to obtain their studying methods and point out the shortcomings and disadvantages. Finally, we point out the contents, innovation and weakness of the dissertation.
In the second chapter, we first define the concept of the trade policy and industrial structure optimization. Then, we summarize the two channels of foreign trade to promote the industry structure from supply and demand. by promoting the consumption upgrading, by optimizing resources, by increasing the capital accumulation and by accelerating technical progress.
In the third chapter, we first review the trade policy evolution during the period of Chinese reform and opening-up and analyze the trade policies tools especially the export tax rebate policy and exchange rate policy. Second, we study the characteristics of China's foreign trade and industrial structure's finding that three industrial structures and the industry internal structure has obtained the prominent promotion after experiencing 30 years opening to the outside world. Finally, taking Japan as an example, we analysize the role that foreign trade plays in its industrial structure evolution, in promoting foreign trade growth and in the trade structural adjustment.
ChapterⅣis the main part of the dissertation. Firstly, according to china's resources endowments, we build an open economy model which is consistent with the Chinese characteristics fact and combine with Lewis-Ranis-Fei model to analysize the mechanism and conditions of trade to China's industrial restructuring and upgrade under the dualistic economies environment. Our analysis results is that in the absence of sufficient domestic demand, developing country can promote the development of foreign trade to make rapid economic take-off, based on the theory of comparative advantage and can accumulate capital, obtain advanced technologies and promote economic transition from agriculture to industry; At the same time, the large amount of redundant labor in agriculture is the base of comparative advantage of China's labor-intensive goods in the world market. The trade goods sector can get fast development while the non-tradable goods sector's investment and output will not be squeezed out because of the increased labor costs. However, when the surplus labor is depleted, the trade's role in promoting industrial restructuring will be limited. Secondly, Based on the classic "conflict model", we propose an improved open economy model to analyze the mechanisms and conditions of export tax rebate policy affecting China's industrial structure adjusting. The model is consistent with China's economic characteristic facts and assumes trade goods as the price taker. Normative study shows that raising the export tax rebate rate can promote the output of the tradable goods sectors due to "resource movement" effect which will upgrading the industrial structure. By dividing the tradable sector into the "capital intensive" sector and the "labor intensive" sector, we get that the implementation of the differential export tax rebate policy can optimize the export product structure and promote the manufacturing industry structure at the same time.
ChapterⅤis the empirical extension of theoretical models. This chapter studies the effects of trade policy to promote the industri upgrading in two levels. One is the effect of trade policy on trade promoting and trade structural optimization, the othe is the study of trade volume increase and trade structure upgrading on industrial structure optimization. The results show that China's trade policies adopted by the china government effectively promotes China's exports and improves the structure of export products. By establishing an improved Chenery (1968) classical econometric model, we analysized the effect of trade on the industrialization process of China.:Provincial panel data analysis results show that foreign trade has been of an significant role in promoting China's industrialization, but this effect is restricted by the labor costs and shows significant differences because of different regions and time. VAR model results including the cointegration analysis in terms of elasticity estimates, impulse response functions and variance decomposition of the dynamic response path of contribution rate of change show that foreign trade play an important role in promoting the industrialization.. However, the foreign trade can greatly promote the optimization of industrial structure of the eastern region. At last, Cointegration analysis result shows that there are long-term equilibrium relationship between the export structure and industrial structure.
ChapterⅥis the conclusion and policy suggestions. This chapter presents a summation on previous theoretical theory and empirical results and recommends reliable explanation. Relevant political implications are proposed at last.
引文
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