面向可持续发展的黑河流域水资源合理配置及其评价研究
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摘要
黑河作为维持流域内地区社会经济和生态系统可持续发展的生命线,其生态建设与环境保护至关重要。因此,加强黑河流域以水资源可持续利用为核心的统一管理,合理安排生产、生活和生态用水,促进水资源合理配置、高效利用,对于提高水资源承载能力,实现黑河流域水资源可持续利用,保护和改善流域及周边地区生态环境,推动西部地区社会经济的可持续发展,保障社会稳定,维护民族团结,巩固国防建设具有重要现实意义。
基于此,本文在对国内外水资源合理配置及可持续发展研究综述的基础上,针对黑河流域的实际水资源状况与特点,在可持续发展战略思想和二元水资源承载能力理论的指导下,采用理论研究和实践相结合的方法,对黑河流域水资源合理配置及其评价方面进行了较为深入的系统分析研究,在研究中始终将可持续发展思想贯穿其中,主要研究内容包括以下几个方面:
(1)针对目前水资源研究相关概念比较杂乱的状况,界定了水资源、水资源承载能力、可持续发展、合理配置及生态需水量的概念,并对它们之间的关系进行了阐述分析。根据黑河流域的实际情况,分别采用水资源承载压力度和景观空间格局法对现状条件下的黑河流域水资源承载能力和生态环境质量进行了综合评价,为构建可持续发展的水资源合理配置模式提供了基本依据。
(2)根据黑河流域的社会经济发展特点和生态环境状况,以遏制并逐步改善流域生态环境为基本前提,制定了规划水平年流域社会经济和生态环境协调发展的水资源利用条件。在此基础上,对黑河流域规划水平年的社会经济发展和生活、生产和生态环境用水量发展趋势分别采用适当的预测模型进行了分析预测。
(3)结合黑河流域水资源开发利用的特点和目标,生成规划水平年5个拟定水资源配置方案进行供需平衡分析.考虑到黑河流域水资源紧缺,需水量大于供水量的实际,按照兼顾流域缺水均衡,以流域总缺水量最小为目标的原则,采用大系统理论建立水资源合理配置的多目标规划优化模型,并采用人工免疫进化算法作为该模型的求解方法。
(4)系统地研究了指标体系构建、指标筛选、组合定权、综合评价、多方法决策等内容。建立了流域水资源配置评价指标体系,所构建的评价指标体系包括了分区指标与全局指标两个层次,涵盖了社会合理性、经济合理性、生态合理性、资源合理性、效率合理性与发展协调性六大类的多维评价指标。提出了德尔菲法与“改进的熵权法”两种方法综合的组合赋权法;探索性地将基于模糊隶属度的DEA/AHP的三阶段综合评价方法和投影寻踪决策法应用于水资源配置方案的优选过程。此外,从可持续发展的角度对拟定的黑河流域规划水平年5种水资源配置方案的水资源承载能力作进一步的分析评价,重点评价了发展系数、协调系数、公平系数和可持续发展系数,最后,按照综合优选结果确定了流域水资源配置的推荐方案,为黑河流域水资源规划管理部门提供了决策依据。
(5)针对黑河流域地区生态环境日益恶化的突出问题,结合黑河流域的实际情况,以科学发展观为指导,提出了一些实现黑河流域水资源可持续发展的具体措施,希望能为今后水资源的可持续利用提供一些参考。
Heihe is the lifeblood to maintain sustainable development of socio-economic and ecological system in the catchment area.Its ecological construction and environmental protection is crucial. Therefore, it is of important practical significance to improve water carrying capacity and achieve sustainable utilization of water resources on the basis of unified water resources management, rational water arrangement in production and daily life and ecological use, rational water allocation and efficient utilization. Meanwhile, it is significant to protect and improve ecological environment of the catchment and surrounding areas, promoting the sustainable socio-economic development in the western region and ensuring social stability and national unity as well as national defense construction.
In view of the actual water resources condition and characteristics in the Heihe Catchment, rational allocation of water resources and evaluation are analyzed systematically on the basis of reviews on water resources allocation and sustainable development at home and abroad.The method of theory associated with practice is adopted under the guidance of sustainable development thinking and dual water resources carrying capacity theory.The thinking of sustainable development runs through the study. The main contents are as fellows:
(1) In view of the current messy definitions related to the water resources study, concepts of Water resources, water resources carrying capacity, sustainable development, rational allocation and ecological water demand are redefined. The relationships between them are analyzed.Water resources carrying capacity and ecological environment quality are evaluated comprehensively based on the water resources carrying pressure and landscape spatial pattern method in the current condition in terms of the actual situation in the Heihe Catchment, providing fundamental basis for the establishment of sustainable development of rational water resources allocation.
(2) Utilization conditions of water resources are established in the planning year for the coordinated development between catchment socio-economic and ecological environment in terms of the characteristics of the socio-economic development and ecological environment on the basis of ecological environment improvement in the Heihe Catchment.On this basis, socio-economic development and trend of water demand for living, production and ecological environment are analyzed and predicted with the rational forecasting model.
(3) Five proposed schemes of water resources allocation are established to analyze supply-demand balance in the planning year combined with characteristics and goals of water resources development and utilization in the Heihe Catchment. Taking into account the shortage of water resources in the Heihe River Basin and the fact of water demand greater than water supply, multi-objective optimization model for rational allocation of water resources is established based on large-scale system theory with the aim of minimum water deficit.Artificial immune evolutionary algorithm is used to calculate the model.
(4) Contents of index System establishment, index screening, combination scheduling, comprehensive evaluation and multi-method decision-making are studied systematically.Evaluation index system for the water resources allocation is established, which includes the subarea indicators and overall indicators.It is multi-dimensional evaluation index covering social rationality, economic rationality, ecological rationality, resources rationality, efficiency rationality and development coordination.The integrated empowering method is proposed combining the Delphi method and improved entropy method.The three-step evaluation method of DEA/AHP based on fuzzy membership and projection pursuit evaluation model are used in the Optimization process of water resources allocation.In addition, Water resources carrying capacity was further analyzed and evaluated based on five proposed water resources allocation schemes of the planning year focusing on sustainable development in the Heihe Catchmentfocusing on the development coefficient, coordination coefficient, equitable and sustainable development coefficient.Finally, the recommended scheme for water resources allocation is identified based on integrated optimization, providing the decision-making basis for department of water resources planning and management in the Heihe Catchment.
(5) A number of specific measures are proposed to realize the sustainable development of water resources in terms of deteriorating ecological environment and actual situation in the Heihe Catchment under the guidance of scientific development concept, hoping for some reference to the future sustainable water resources utilization.
基于此,本文在对国内外水资源合理配置及可持续发展研究综述的基础上,针对黑河流域的实际水资源状况与特点,在可持续发展战略思想和二元水资源承载能力理论的指导下,采用理论研究和实践相结合的方法,对黑河流域水资源合理配置及其评价方面进行了较为深入的系统分析研究,在研究中始终将可持续发展思想贯穿其中,主要研究内容包括以下几个方面:
(1)针对目前水资源研究相关概念比较杂乱的状况,界定了水资源、水资源承载能力、可持续发展、合理配置及生态需水量的概念,并对它们之间的关系进行了阐述分析。根据黑河流域的实际情况,分别采用水资源承载压力度和景观空间格局法对现状条件下的黑河流域水资源承载能力和生态环境质量进行了综合评价,为构建可持续发展的水资源合理配置模式提供了基本依据。
(2)根据黑河流域的社会经济发展特点和生态环境状况,以遏制并逐步改善流域生态环境为基本前提,制定了规划水平年流域社会经济和生态环境协调发展的水资源利用条件。在此基础上,对黑河流域规划水平年的社会经济发展和生活、生产和生态环境用水量发展趋势分别采用适当的预测模型进行了分析预测。
(3)结合黑河流域水资源开发利用的特点和目标,生成规划水平年5个拟定水资源配置方案进行供需平衡分析.考虑到黑河流域水资源紧缺,需水量大于供水量的实际,按照兼顾流域缺水均衡,以流域总缺水量最小为目标的原则,采用大系统理论建立水资源合理配置的多目标规划优化模型,并采用人工免疫进化算法作为该模型的求解方法。
(4)系统地研究了指标体系构建、指标筛选、组合定权、综合评价、多方法决策等内容。建立了流域水资源配置评价指标体系,所构建的评价指标体系包括了分区指标与全局指标两个层次,涵盖了社会合理性、经济合理性、生态合理性、资源合理性、效率合理性与发展协调性六大类的多维评价指标。提出了德尔菲法与“改进的熵权法”两种方法综合的组合赋权法;探索性地将基于模糊隶属度的DEA/AHP的三阶段综合评价方法和投影寻踪决策法应用于水资源配置方案的优选过程。此外,从可持续发展的角度对拟定的黑河流域规划水平年5种水资源配置方案的水资源承载能力作进一步的分析评价,重点评价了发展系数、协调系数、公平系数和可持续发展系数,最后,按照综合优选结果确定了流域水资源配置的推荐方案,为黑河流域水资源规划管理部门提供了决策依据。
(5)针对黑河流域地区生态环境日益恶化的突出问题,结合黑河流域的实际情况,以科学发展观为指导,提出了一些实现黑河流域水资源可持续发展的具体措施,希望能为今后水资源的可持续利用提供一些参考。
Heihe is the lifeblood to maintain sustainable development of socio-economic and ecological system in the catchment area.Its ecological construction and environmental protection is crucial. Therefore, it is of important practical significance to improve water carrying capacity and achieve sustainable utilization of water resources on the basis of unified water resources management, rational water arrangement in production and daily life and ecological use, rational water allocation and efficient utilization. Meanwhile, it is significant to protect and improve ecological environment of the catchment and surrounding areas, promoting the sustainable socio-economic development in the western region and ensuring social stability and national unity as well as national defense construction.
In view of the actual water resources condition and characteristics in the Heihe Catchment, rational allocation of water resources and evaluation are analyzed systematically on the basis of reviews on water resources allocation and sustainable development at home and abroad.The method of theory associated with practice is adopted under the guidance of sustainable development thinking and dual water resources carrying capacity theory.The thinking of sustainable development runs through the study. The main contents are as fellows:
(1) In view of the current messy definitions related to the water resources study, concepts of Water resources, water resources carrying capacity, sustainable development, rational allocation and ecological water demand are redefined. The relationships between them are analyzed.Water resources carrying capacity and ecological environment quality are evaluated comprehensively based on the water resources carrying pressure and landscape spatial pattern method in the current condition in terms of the actual situation in the Heihe Catchment, providing fundamental basis for the establishment of sustainable development of rational water resources allocation.
(2) Utilization conditions of water resources are established in the planning year for the coordinated development between catchment socio-economic and ecological environment in terms of the characteristics of the socio-economic development and ecological environment on the basis of ecological environment improvement in the Heihe Catchment.On this basis, socio-economic development and trend of water demand for living, production and ecological environment are analyzed and predicted with the rational forecasting model.
(3) Five proposed schemes of water resources allocation are established to analyze supply-demand balance in the planning year combined with characteristics and goals of water resources development and utilization in the Heihe Catchment. Taking into account the shortage of water resources in the Heihe River Basin and the fact of water demand greater than water supply, multi-objective optimization model for rational allocation of water resources is established based on large-scale system theory with the aim of minimum water deficit.Artificial immune evolutionary algorithm is used to calculate the model.
(4) Contents of index System establishment, index screening, combination scheduling, comprehensive evaluation and multi-method decision-making are studied systematically.Evaluation index system for the water resources allocation is established, which includes the subarea indicators and overall indicators.It is multi-dimensional evaluation index covering social rationality, economic rationality, ecological rationality, resources rationality, efficiency rationality and development coordination.The integrated empowering method is proposed combining the Delphi method and improved entropy method.The three-step evaluation method of DEA/AHP based on fuzzy membership and projection pursuit evaluation model are used in the Optimization process of water resources allocation.In addition, Water resources carrying capacity was further analyzed and evaluated based on five proposed water resources allocation schemes of the planning year focusing on sustainable development in the Heihe Catchmentfocusing on the development coefficient, coordination coefficient, equitable and sustainable development coefficient.Finally, the recommended scheme for water resources allocation is identified based on integrated optimization, providing the decision-making basis for department of water resources planning and management in the Heihe Catchment.
(5) A number of specific measures are proposed to realize the sustainable development of water resources in terms of deteriorating ecological environment and actual situation in the Heihe Catchment under the guidance of scientific development concept, hoping for some reference to the future sustainable water resources utilization.
引文
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