西部十二省金融与矿业发展的因果关系研究
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摘要
矿产资源是人类物质生产的重要基础，矿业为国民经济各个行业提供了最基础的动力和原材料。矿业具有风险高、资金需求大、投资回收期长等特征，因此现代矿业的发展离不开金融的支持。这使得矿业发展与金融发展之间的关系成为一个重要的问题。
我国的矿产资源主要来自西部地区。西部地区成矿地质条件优越，天然气、煤、铜、磷、铅、稀土等27种矿产的探明储量占全国的50%以上。为定量研究西部十二省金融发展与矿业发展之间的关系，本文以西部十二省为研究对象，1997年—2011年为研究期，对这些地区金融的发展与当地煤炭开采和洗选业、石油和天然气开采业、黑色金属矿采选业、有色金属矿采选业与非金属矿采选业发展的关系进行了实证研究。
本文思路如下：（1）收集西部十二省金融业增加值及矿业各产业的产值数据，分析各地区金融发展与矿业发展在趋势上的差异。（2）构造金融发展变量和矿业产业发展变量并进行单位根检验和协整检验，确定金融发展与矿业发展之间是否存在长期均衡关系。（3）构建误差修正模型来检验西部十二省金融发展与矿业各产业发展之间的长期因果关系。（4）通过格兰杰因果检验确定西部十二省金融与五个矿业产业之间的短期因果关系。（5）总结各地区、各矿业产业发展与当地金融发展之间的长期因果关系和短期因果关系的规律，并分析产生这些规律的原因，最后提出政策建议。
本文有三个创新点：（1）发现了西部地区金融与矿业发展趋势的三种类型。（2）分地区、分产业进行了实证研究，通过大量详实的数据，从空间、时间、产业三个维度上挖掘了金融与矿业之间的关系。（3）总结了西部地区金融发展与矿业发展长期因果关系和短期因果关系的规律。
实证结果显示：西部十二个地区金融与矿业发展存在三种不同的情况：贵州、西藏和陕西的金融与矿业协同发展，内蒙古、云南、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆的金融先发展矿业滞后发展，广西、重庆、四川的矿业先发展金融滞后发展。长期来看，西部各地区金融发展对绝大多数产业发展有显著促进作用。矿业发展对金融发展的推动作用不如金融发展对矿业发展的推动作用普遍。西部矿业发展与金融发展之间的一些长期因果关系在短期内不会显现。
西部大开发战略实施以来，当地的交通、水利、能源、通信取得了较大的进步，为西部经济的进一步发展奠定了基础。西部丰富的资源禀赋决定了矿业依然是未来的发展动力。根据本文的研究结果，未来一段时期内西部各省市应因地制宜，结合当地资源特征，以切实的措施促进的西部地区金融的发展，比如拓宽矿业融资渠道、促进证券业发展等，以金融的快速健康发展获得矿业产业的长期繁荣。
Mineral resources are very important for production processes of human society. Miningindustries provide basic materials for a wide range of industries in national economy. Thosemining industries have the features of high risk, high demand of money and long investmentreturn period, which makes financial support quite necessary in the development of miningindustries.
Most of China’s mineral resources come from western China. The good metallogenic geologicalconditions result in big mineral resource reserves in western China. More than50%reserves ofChina’ natural gas, coal, copper, phosphorus, lead and rare earth was found in western China. Inorder to find the quantity relationship between the development of financial industry and miningindustries in western China, this paper researches on the relationship in12western provinces inChina during the period of1997-2011. Mining industries this paper considers include mining andwashing of coal, mining of oil and natural gas, mining of ferrous metal ore, mining of non-ferrousmetal ore and mining of non-metal ore.
The procedures of this paper are as follows: Firstly, we analyze the trend of mining industries andfinancial industry in western China after collecting the data of financial valueadded and the outputvalue of mining industries in each province. Secondly, we use the fraction of deposition in GDPand the fraction of loan in GDP as two indicators of financial development, output value of miningindustries as indicators of mining industry development. The unit root test, Johansen cointegrationtest are used to test the equilibrium relationship between the development of financial industry andmining industries. Thirdly, we build an error correction model to test the long run causalitybetween the development of financial industry and mining industries. After that, Granger causalitytest is used to test the short term causality relationship. Lastly, we conclude the relationshipsbetween the development of financial industry and mining industries both by province and byindustry to find the features of these relationships. Also, the reasons behind these relationships aswell as some policy recommendations are given.
There are three innovations in this paper: Firstly, we found three main patterns in the tendency offinancial development and mining industry development. Secondly, different provinces anddifferent industries are considered in our empirical research. By using large amount of data, weobserve the relationship between financial industry and mining industries from different region,time scale and industry. Thirdly, the short term and long run causality relationships between thedevelopment of financial industry and mining industries are found.
Our result shows that: From the view of tendency, there are three patterns in the relationship between financial industry and mining industries in western China: both of financial industry andmining industry develop quickly, the mining industries develop quickly before financial industryand financial industry develops quickly before mining industries. In the long run, there arecausality relationships from the development of financial industry to the development of miningindustries in most provinces. The causality relationships from mining industries to financialindustries are less than the causality relationship from financial industries to mining industries.Some of the long run causality relationships cannot be found in short term.
The transportation, water, energy and communication conditions of western China have beenimproved a lot after the Western Development Strategy, which laid a sound foundation for thefurther development of the western economy. Mining industries would still be the motivation forfuture development in western China due to the rich mineral reserves. According to our findings,western provinces should try to develop their financial industry as well as considering the localresource conditions. Some detail polic ies should be taken, just as broadening the financing sourcesfor mining industries and to promoting the development of the securities industries. After that,mining industries in western China could obtain a long run prosperity.
我国的矿产资源主要来自西部地区。西部地区成矿地质条件优越，天然气、煤、铜、磷、铅、稀土等27种矿产的探明储量占全国的50%以上。为定量研究西部十二省金融发展与矿业发展之间的关系，本文以西部十二省为研究对象，1997年—2011年为研究期，对这些地区金融的发展与当地煤炭开采和洗选业、石油和天然气开采业、黑色金属矿采选业、有色金属矿采选业与非金属矿采选业发展的关系进行了实证研究。
本文思路如下：（1）收集西部十二省金融业增加值及矿业各产业的产值数据，分析各地区金融发展与矿业发展在趋势上的差异。（2）构造金融发展变量和矿业产业发展变量并进行单位根检验和协整检验，确定金融发展与矿业发展之间是否存在长期均衡关系。（3）构建误差修正模型来检验西部十二省金融发展与矿业各产业发展之间的长期因果关系。（4）通过格兰杰因果检验确定西部十二省金融与五个矿业产业之间的短期因果关系。（5）总结各地区、各矿业产业发展与当地金融发展之间的长期因果关系和短期因果关系的规律，并分析产生这些规律的原因，最后提出政策建议。
本文有三个创新点：（1）发现了西部地区金融与矿业发展趋势的三种类型。（2）分地区、分产业进行了实证研究，通过大量详实的数据，从空间、时间、产业三个维度上挖掘了金融与矿业之间的关系。（3）总结了西部地区金融发展与矿业发展长期因果关系和短期因果关系的规律。
实证结果显示：西部十二个地区金融与矿业发展存在三种不同的情况：贵州、西藏和陕西的金融与矿业协同发展，内蒙古、云南、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆的金融先发展矿业滞后发展，广西、重庆、四川的矿业先发展金融滞后发展。长期来看，西部各地区金融发展对绝大多数产业发展有显著促进作用。矿业发展对金融发展的推动作用不如金融发展对矿业发展的推动作用普遍。西部矿业发展与金融发展之间的一些长期因果关系在短期内不会显现。
西部大开发战略实施以来，当地的交通、水利、能源、通信取得了较大的进步，为西部经济的进一步发展奠定了基础。西部丰富的资源禀赋决定了矿业依然是未来的发展动力。根据本文的研究结果，未来一段时期内西部各省市应因地制宜，结合当地资源特征，以切实的措施促进的西部地区金融的发展，比如拓宽矿业融资渠道、促进证券业发展等，以金融的快速健康发展获得矿业产业的长期繁荣。
Mineral resources are very important for production processes of human society. Miningindustries provide basic materials for a wide range of industries in national economy. Thosemining industries have the features of high risk, high demand of money and long investmentreturn period, which makes financial support quite necessary in the development of miningindustries.
Most of China’s mineral resources come from western China. The good metallogenic geologicalconditions result in big mineral resource reserves in western China. More than50%reserves ofChina’ natural gas, coal, copper, phosphorus, lead and rare earth was found in western China. Inorder to find the quantity relationship between the development of financial industry and miningindustries in western China, this paper researches on the relationship in12western provinces inChina during the period of1997-2011. Mining industries this paper considers include mining andwashing of coal, mining of oil and natural gas, mining of ferrous metal ore, mining of non-ferrousmetal ore and mining of non-metal ore.
The procedures of this paper are as follows: Firstly, we analyze the trend of mining industries andfinancial industry in western China after collecting the data of financial valueadded and the outputvalue of mining industries in each province. Secondly, we use the fraction of deposition in GDPand the fraction of loan in GDP as two indicators of financial development, output value of miningindustries as indicators of mining industry development. The unit root test, Johansen cointegrationtest are used to test the equilibrium relationship between the development of financial industry andmining industries. Thirdly, we build an error correction model to test the long run causalitybetween the development of financial industry and mining industries. After that, Granger causalitytest is used to test the short term causality relationship. Lastly, we conclude the relationshipsbetween the development of financial industry and mining industries both by province and byindustry to find the features of these relationships. Also, the reasons behind these relationships aswell as some policy recommendations are given.
There are three innovations in this paper: Firstly, we found three main patterns in the tendency offinancial development and mining industry development. Secondly, different provinces anddifferent industries are considered in our empirical research. By using large amount of data, weobserve the relationship between financial industry and mining industries from different region,time scale and industry. Thirdly, the short term and long run causality relationships between thedevelopment of financial industry and mining industries are found.
Our result shows that: From the view of tendency, there are three patterns in the relationship between financial industry and mining industries in western China: both of financial industry andmining industry develop quickly, the mining industries develop quickly before financial industryand financial industry develops quickly before mining industries. In the long run, there arecausality relationships from the development of financial industry to the development of miningindustries in most provinces. The causality relationships from mining industries to financialindustries are less than the causality relationship from financial industries to mining industries.Some of the long run causality relationships cannot be found in short term.
The transportation, water, energy and communication conditions of western China have beenimproved a lot after the Western Development Strategy, which laid a sound foundation for thefurther development of the western economy. Mining industries would still be the motivation forfuture development in western China due to the rich mineral reserves. According to our findings,western provinces should try to develop their financial industry as well as considering the localresource conditions. Some detail polic ies should be taken, just as broadening the financing sourcesfor mining industries and to promoting the development of the securities industries. After that,mining industries in western China could obtain a long run prosperity.
引文
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