水电开发中的生态风险评价与管理研究
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摘要
人类活动影响对生态系统的影响日益显著,大型水电工程在建设和运行过程中,改变了河道水资源的时空分布特征,同时也对流域范围内的生态环境产生了直接和间接影响,这种影响在工程建设期和运行期有不同的影响方式和影响程度,并且在长期的运行过程中,水电工程对环境的影响具有持久和累积效应。另一方面,水电工程在不同的运行方式下,水库的防洪、发电、供水、航运等效益和风险也随之改变。
本文基于国际上先进的生态风险评价与管理理念及方法,通过对梯级水电工程与流域生态环境的关系研究,同时应用不确定性分析理论,以我国澜沧江流域水电为研究背景,深入探讨了大型水电工程在建设期和运行过程中生态风险的评价及风险决策等问题,在水电工程对陆生生态系统风险、水电工程对鱼类生态影响的预测、水电开发对生态系统的累积影响、水电工程运行期的风险分析与决策的理论方法及应用方面取得了如下主要成果：
(1)水电开发对陆生生态系统影响的风险评价。基于相对风险理论和模糊隶属度概念,提出了定量计算和定性评价相结合的水电工程开发对陆生生态系统影响的风险评价模型。构建了针对水电工程建设期和运行期的陆生生态系统风险评价指标体系,建立了基于相对风险理论和模糊隶属度的水电工程陆生生态系统风险评价模型,有效地解决了流域生态系统评价所具有的指标多重性、随机性、模糊性、不完全性、不可比性等不确定性特征问题,为水电站建设及运行中的生态系统风险评价提供了值得借鉴的方法,为流域生态系统保护和生态管理提供了决策依据。
(2)水电开发对鱼类生态的影响预测研究。建立了基于改进遗传规划法的鱼类影响预测模型,针对遗传规划算法很难收敛于全局最优的缺点,采用等梯度增加法对个体的生成方式进行改进以使生成的算法树分布更均匀,采用分组生成法产生初始群体以提高初始种群的生成质量,采用动态限制树深度以提高算法的效率。通过在澜沧江梯级水电开发对湄公河鱼类影响研究中的应用,表明改进遗传规划算法在预测精度、结果直观性和可解释性方面均优于常规遗传规划算法,为水电开发对河流鱼类的影响预测提供了一条有效的途径。
(3)水电开发对生态系统影响的累积效应研究。鉴于梯级水电开发对生态系统的影响具有累积性,建立了梯级水电开发环境累积影响的评价体系；针对生态环境系统诸多因素的不确定性,从水环境、陆生生态环境和水生生态环境三方面出发,建立了定量分析和定性分析相结合的二级综合模糊评价模型,运用层次分析法求解各影响因子的权重,运用主成分分析法对模糊评价模型进行求解,降低了模型的维度和求解复杂性。以澜沧江干流为例,分别进行了梯级水电开发对水环境和生态环境累积效应的影响分析,并提出了针对性的生态保护建议,为研究水电开发对生态系统累积效应的影响提供了一种新的思路,为深入研究水电开发与流域生态的关系提供了理论与方法储备。
(4)水电运行期水库调度风险的研究。针对水库调度涉及多个目标的特点,深入分析了水库多目标之间的关系,在水库多目标调度决策和分析评价理论方法研究的基础上,将水库多目标优化调度、多目标决策和多目标风险评价有机的结合起来,为水库调度方案的合理制定提供了充分、全面和系统的决策依据。针对梯级水库联合防洪调度中所面临的风险,构建了以主要目标和约束的破坏概率为要素的风险评价指标体系,建立了联合防洪调度风险估计模型,有效的考虑了预报误差对水库群联合防洪调度的影响风险,对防洪调度决策具有重要的指导意义,对梯级水库群防洪调度风险分析理论与方法进步提供了有用的参考价值。
The impact of humanactivities onecosystemsis becoming increasingly significant.In theconstruction and operation processesof large-scalehydropower projects,spatial and temporaldistribution ofriverwater has been changed; meanwhile the ecological environment of river basin is affected directly and indirectly. The influence manner and degree is different in construction period and operation period, and the environmental influence of hydropower project can be cumulative. On the other hand, the reservoir risk in flood control, power generation, water supply and navigation is changing due to different operation methods.
Based on international advancedecological risk assessmentandmanagement conce ptsand methods, through researchonthe relationshipof cascadehydropower projectsand watershedecological environment, the Lancangriver hydropower system is taken as background with application of uncertainty analysistheory. The ecological risk evalu ation and decision during construction and operation period is discussed. Progresses is made in the riskofterrestrial ecosystems, fish ecological impact prediction of hy dropower projects, cumulative impact of ecological system and risk analysis and d ecision theory during hydropower operation period:
(1) Risk assessmentof hydropower developmenton terrestrial ecosystemimpacts.B ased onthe concept of relativeriskand fuzzymembership theory.risk assessmentmodeli s proposed to qualitativecalculate and evaluate the terrestrial ecosystemimpacts. Terr estrial ecosystemrisk assessment index system is established for construction period and operation period of hydropower project, terrestrial ecosystemrisk assessment model is established based on relative risk theory and fuzzy membership, which ef fectively solve the multiplicity, randomness, fuzziness, incompleteness, uncertainties and othercharacteristics of watershed ecosystemevaluation, thus providesvaluablemet hods and decision making support for ecosystemandwatershed protection.
(2) Prediction research of fish ecology impact from hydropower development. Fish impact prediction model is established based on improved geneticprogramming algorithm. For the deficit that geneticprogramming algorithm is difficult to conver ge tothe global optimum, usinguniform gradientto increasegenerationofindividuals an d group generation to improve the quality of initial groups, and dynamic restrictio n tree depth to improve the efficiency of algorithms. By application in Lancang ri verhydropower development and Meikong river fish impact, the prediction precision, results intuitive and interpretability of improved genetic programming is better tha n traditional genetic programming algorithms, which provides an effective way for fish impact of hydropower.
(3) Cumulative effect research of ecological system for hydropower developme nt. Given theimpact ofhydropower developmenton ecosystemsare cumulative, assess ment system for environmental cumulative impact are established; for the various uncertainties of ecological system, a two stage comprehensive fuzzy evaluation mo del is established from water environment, terrestrial ecosystemsand aquaticecologic alenvironment aspect combining quantitativeand qualitative analysis. AHP theory is applied to solve the weight of each factor, and PCA theory is used to solve fuzzy assessment model, which reduced the model dimension and complexity. Take the Lancang river for instance, cumulative impact analysis for cascaded hydropower to water environment and ecological environment is analyzed, and recommendations are proposed to protect ecology, which provide a new approach to the cumulative effect from hydropower development, and provideareservefor further study ofhydrop ower development andwatershedecologyrelationships.
(4) Reservoir operation risk research. According to the characteristicsof reservo ir operationinvolving multipletargets,the relationships between thereservoirmulti-objec tive are analyzed, multi-objectiveandmulti-objectivedecision making method are orga nized based on reservoirs multi-objective operation decision and analysis theory, w hich provides sufficient, comprehensiveand systematicbasis for decision making for operation plan. Forrisks associated withflood control operationof cascade reservoirs, risk assessment index system is established considering destruction probability of main objectives and constraints. Jointflood control operation riskestimation model is established, which effectively considered impact risks brought by prediction error, which has significant guiding meaning for flood control decision, and provides us eful referencevalue for cascadereservoir flood controltheery and methods.
本文基于国际上先进的生态风险评价与管理理念及方法,通过对梯级水电工程与流域生态环境的关系研究,同时应用不确定性分析理论,以我国澜沧江流域水电为研究背景,深入探讨了大型水电工程在建设期和运行过程中生态风险的评价及风险决策等问题,在水电工程对陆生生态系统风险、水电工程对鱼类生态影响的预测、水电开发对生态系统的累积影响、水电工程运行期的风险分析与决策的理论方法及应用方面取得了如下主要成果：
(1)水电开发对陆生生态系统影响的风险评价。基于相对风险理论和模糊隶属度概念,提出了定量计算和定性评价相结合的水电工程开发对陆生生态系统影响的风险评价模型。构建了针对水电工程建设期和运行期的陆生生态系统风险评价指标体系,建立了基于相对风险理论和模糊隶属度的水电工程陆生生态系统风险评价模型,有效地解决了流域生态系统评价所具有的指标多重性、随机性、模糊性、不完全性、不可比性等不确定性特征问题,为水电站建设及运行中的生态系统风险评价提供了值得借鉴的方法,为流域生态系统保护和生态管理提供了决策依据。
(2)水电开发对鱼类生态的影响预测研究。建立了基于改进遗传规划法的鱼类影响预测模型,针对遗传规划算法很难收敛于全局最优的缺点,采用等梯度增加法对个体的生成方式进行改进以使生成的算法树分布更均匀,采用分组生成法产生初始群体以提高初始种群的生成质量,采用动态限制树深度以提高算法的效率。通过在澜沧江梯级水电开发对湄公河鱼类影响研究中的应用,表明改进遗传规划算法在预测精度、结果直观性和可解释性方面均优于常规遗传规划算法,为水电开发对河流鱼类的影响预测提供了一条有效的途径。
(3)水电开发对生态系统影响的累积效应研究。鉴于梯级水电开发对生态系统的影响具有累积性,建立了梯级水电开发环境累积影响的评价体系；针对生态环境系统诸多因素的不确定性,从水环境、陆生生态环境和水生生态环境三方面出发,建立了定量分析和定性分析相结合的二级综合模糊评价模型,运用层次分析法求解各影响因子的权重,运用主成分分析法对模糊评价模型进行求解,降低了模型的维度和求解复杂性。以澜沧江干流为例,分别进行了梯级水电开发对水环境和生态环境累积效应的影响分析,并提出了针对性的生态保护建议,为研究水电开发对生态系统累积效应的影响提供了一种新的思路,为深入研究水电开发与流域生态的关系提供了理论与方法储备。
(4)水电运行期水库调度风险的研究。针对水库调度涉及多个目标的特点,深入分析了水库多目标之间的关系,在水库多目标调度决策和分析评价理论方法研究的基础上,将水库多目标优化调度、多目标决策和多目标风险评价有机的结合起来,为水库调度方案的合理制定提供了充分、全面和系统的决策依据。针对梯级水库联合防洪调度中所面临的风险,构建了以主要目标和约束的破坏概率为要素的风险评价指标体系,建立了联合防洪调度风险估计模型,有效的考虑了预报误差对水库群联合防洪调度的影响风险,对防洪调度决策具有重要的指导意义,对梯级水库群防洪调度风险分析理论与方法进步提供了有用的参考价值。
The impact of humanactivities onecosystemsis becoming increasingly significant.In theconstruction and operation processesof large-scalehydropower projects,spatial and temporaldistribution ofriverwater has been changed; meanwhile the ecological environment of river basin is affected directly and indirectly. The influence manner and degree is different in construction period and operation period, and the environmental influence of hydropower project can be cumulative. On the other hand, the reservoir risk in flood control, power generation, water supply and navigation is changing due to different operation methods.
Based on international advancedecological risk assessmentandmanagement conce ptsand methods, through researchonthe relationshipof cascadehydropower projectsand watershedecological environment, the Lancangriver hydropower system is taken as background with application of uncertainty analysistheory. The ecological risk evalu ation and decision during construction and operation period is discussed. Progresses is made in the riskofterrestrial ecosystems, fish ecological impact prediction of hy dropower projects, cumulative impact of ecological system and risk analysis and d ecision theory during hydropower operation period:
(1) Risk assessmentof hydropower developmenton terrestrial ecosystemimpacts.B ased onthe concept of relativeriskand fuzzymembership theory.risk assessmentmodeli s proposed to qualitativecalculate and evaluate the terrestrial ecosystemimpacts. Terr estrial ecosystemrisk assessment index system is established for construction period and operation period of hydropower project, terrestrial ecosystemrisk assessment model is established based on relative risk theory and fuzzy membership, which ef fectively solve the multiplicity, randomness, fuzziness, incompleteness, uncertainties and othercharacteristics of watershed ecosystemevaluation, thus providesvaluablemet hods and decision making support for ecosystemandwatershed protection.
(2) Prediction research of fish ecology impact from hydropower development. Fish impact prediction model is established based on improved geneticprogramming algorithm. For the deficit that geneticprogramming algorithm is difficult to conver ge tothe global optimum, usinguniform gradientto increasegenerationofindividuals an d group generation to improve the quality of initial groups, and dynamic restrictio n tree depth to improve the efficiency of algorithms. By application in Lancang ri verhydropower development and Meikong river fish impact, the prediction precision, results intuitive and interpretability of improved genetic programming is better tha n traditional genetic programming algorithms, which provides an effective way for fish impact of hydropower.
(3) Cumulative effect research of ecological system for hydropower developme nt. Given theimpact ofhydropower developmenton ecosystemsare cumulative, assess ment system for environmental cumulative impact are established; for the various uncertainties of ecological system, a two stage comprehensive fuzzy evaluation mo del is established from water environment, terrestrial ecosystemsand aquaticecologic alenvironment aspect combining quantitativeand qualitative analysis. AHP theory is applied to solve the weight of each factor, and PCA theory is used to solve fuzzy assessment model, which reduced the model dimension and complexity. Take the Lancang river for instance, cumulative impact analysis for cascaded hydropower to water environment and ecological environment is analyzed, and recommendations are proposed to protect ecology, which provide a new approach to the cumulative effect from hydropower development, and provideareservefor further study ofhydrop ower development andwatershedecologyrelationships.
(4) Reservoir operation risk research. According to the characteristicsof reservo ir operationinvolving multipletargets,the relationships between thereservoirmulti-objec tive are analyzed, multi-objectiveandmulti-objectivedecision making method are orga nized based on reservoirs multi-objective operation decision and analysis theory, w hich provides sufficient, comprehensiveand systematicbasis for decision making for operation plan. Forrisks associated withflood control operationof cascade reservoirs, risk assessment index system is established considering destruction probability of main objectives and constraints. Jointflood control operation riskestimation model is established, which effectively considered impact risks brought by prediction error, which has significant guiding meaning for flood control decision, and provides us eful referencevalue for cascadereservoir flood controltheery and methods.
引文
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