基于CORS站区域电离层短期预报研究
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摘要
电离层是高层大气重要的组成部分,其时空变化对无线电通讯、超视距雷达等系统的可靠运行有非常大的干扰作用。电离层总电子含量(Total Electron Content, TEC)是电离层最重要的特征参数之一,TEC预报已经成为电离层研究的一个热点。我国目前已经建立了适用于中国及周边地区的长期预测模型,但是在电离层TEC短期预报方面尚处于起步阶段。本文利用中国境内国际GNSS服务中心(International GNSS Service, IGS)跟踪站和国内的GNSS连续运行参考站(Continuously Operational Reference Stations, CORS)的实测数据,对区域内TEC进行了计算和预报研究。主要研究内容包括以下几个方面:
1.电离层时空变化研究。本文分别利用NeQuick模型、IRI模型和IGS数据对电离层TEC的日变化特征、年变化规律、空间分布等进行了计算分析,总结了电离层TEC的时空变化规律。
2.电离层TEC解算。采用卡尔曼滤波对卫星硬件延迟和接收机硬件延迟进行估计,估计精度分别为1ns和1.5ns;采用GNSS双频观测数据,分别利用伪距法、载波相位法和载波相位平滑伪距法进行TEC解算,比较了不同方法的解算结果,结果显示利用载波相位平滑伪距解算的TEC精度比伪距和载波相位的要好;经过硬件延迟改正后的VTEC值解算精度一般在1-5TECU。
3.电离层TEC短期预报研究。本文将数理统计中的方差分析周期叠加外推法应用于电离层短期预报,随后又对其作了改进。采用IGS提供的电离层TEC数据作为原始数据比较了该方法改进前后的预报精度,结果表明:改进后的方法预报精度要优于改进前的精度,单站预报精度和区域预报精度优于3.5TECU。通过与目前常用方法比较分析发现,该方法预报结果精度较高、所需计算参数少、简单易行,可以较好地应用于电离层短期预报。本文还利用计算得到的不同采样率的TEC数据分别进行预报,发现电离层TEC原始数据的采样率对其预报精度不会产生很大的影响,故在应用中可以利用2小时采样率的电离层TEC数据进行预报,可以减少计算的复杂度,缩短计算时间,提高该方法的预报效率。
The ionosphere is an important component of the upper atmosphere and its temporal and spatial changes have very large effects on the reliability of the radio communications system, over-the-horizontal radar system and other systems. Ionospheric total electron content (TEC) is one of the most important ionospheric characteristic parameters, whose ionospheric short-term forecast has become an issue in the research of the ionosphere. The long-term forecasting models which are suitable to China and surrounding areas have been established in China; however, the ionospheric short-term forecast is still at the initial stage. In this paper, the Chinese domestic observations of the International GNSS Service (IGS) stations and national GNSS Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS) were used to calculate TEC and do the research about ionospheric short-term forecast in this region. The main contents include the following aspects:
1. Temporal and spatial changes of ionosphere. In this paper, NeQuick model, IRI model and IGS data were used to calculate TEC and analyze its diurnal variation, annual discipline, and space distribution, etc.
2. Ionospheric TEC calculation. The precisions of Kalman filtering method which is used to estimate the satellite differential code bias and receiver differential code bias are 1ns and 1.5ns respectively. Pseudo-range, carrier phase and carrier phase smoothed pseudo range were used to calculate TEC respectively with dual-frequency GNSS observations, then compared the results of different methods. It is indicated that the precision of carrier phase smoothed pseudo range is better than others, while the precision of VTEC is about 1-5TECU after differential code bias correction.
3. Ionospheric TEC short-term forecast research. This paper applies the statistics method innovatively, superposition analysis of periodical wave variance, to short-term forecasting of the ionospheric TEC and improves it after preliminary study and analysis. Then the forecast previsions of both original and improved method were compared based on the ionospheric TEC as original data provided by IGS, which shows that the forecast prevision of the improved method is better than the original one and the forecast previsions about single station and region are both below 3.5TECU. Through comparative analysis with the current methods, this method can be well applied to the ionosphere short-term prediction with the advantage of higher precision, fewer parameters and more simple calculation. Then different sampling rate TEC data were used to short-term forecast, which demonstrate that high sampling rate has little effect to forecast prevision, so 2-hour TEC data could be used in forecast in application, which could reduce the computational complexity, shortened the computing time and improve the forecast efficiency of this method.
1.电离层时空变化研究。本文分别利用NeQuick模型、IRI模型和IGS数据对电离层TEC的日变化特征、年变化规律、空间分布等进行了计算分析,总结了电离层TEC的时空变化规律。
2.电离层TEC解算。采用卡尔曼滤波对卫星硬件延迟和接收机硬件延迟进行估计,估计精度分别为1ns和1.5ns;采用GNSS双频观测数据,分别利用伪距法、载波相位法和载波相位平滑伪距法进行TEC解算,比较了不同方法的解算结果,结果显示利用载波相位平滑伪距解算的TEC精度比伪距和载波相位的要好;经过硬件延迟改正后的VTEC值解算精度一般在1-5TECU。
3.电离层TEC短期预报研究。本文将数理统计中的方差分析周期叠加外推法应用于电离层短期预报,随后又对其作了改进。采用IGS提供的电离层TEC数据作为原始数据比较了该方法改进前后的预报精度,结果表明:改进后的方法预报精度要优于改进前的精度,单站预报精度和区域预报精度优于3.5TECU。通过与目前常用方法比较分析发现,该方法预报结果精度较高、所需计算参数少、简单易行,可以较好地应用于电离层短期预报。本文还利用计算得到的不同采样率的TEC数据分别进行预报,发现电离层TEC原始数据的采样率对其预报精度不会产生很大的影响,故在应用中可以利用2小时采样率的电离层TEC数据进行预报,可以减少计算的复杂度,缩短计算时间,提高该方法的预报效率。
The ionosphere is an important component of the upper atmosphere and its temporal and spatial changes have very large effects on the reliability of the radio communications system, over-the-horizontal radar system and other systems. Ionospheric total electron content (TEC) is one of the most important ionospheric characteristic parameters, whose ionospheric short-term forecast has become an issue in the research of the ionosphere. The long-term forecasting models which are suitable to China and surrounding areas have been established in China; however, the ionospheric short-term forecast is still at the initial stage. In this paper, the Chinese domestic observations of the International GNSS Service (IGS) stations and national GNSS Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS) were used to calculate TEC and do the research about ionospheric short-term forecast in this region. The main contents include the following aspects:
1. Temporal and spatial changes of ionosphere. In this paper, NeQuick model, IRI model and IGS data were used to calculate TEC and analyze its diurnal variation, annual discipline, and space distribution, etc.
2. Ionospheric TEC calculation. The precisions of Kalman filtering method which is used to estimate the satellite differential code bias and receiver differential code bias are 1ns and 1.5ns respectively. Pseudo-range, carrier phase and carrier phase smoothed pseudo range were used to calculate TEC respectively with dual-frequency GNSS observations, then compared the results of different methods. It is indicated that the precision of carrier phase smoothed pseudo range is better than others, while the precision of VTEC is about 1-5TECU after differential code bias correction.
3. Ionospheric TEC short-term forecast research. This paper applies the statistics method innovatively, superposition analysis of periodical wave variance, to short-term forecasting of the ionospheric TEC and improves it after preliminary study and analysis. Then the forecast previsions of both original and improved method were compared based on the ionospheric TEC as original data provided by IGS, which shows that the forecast prevision of the improved method is better than the original one and the forecast previsions about single station and region are both below 3.5TECU. Through comparative analysis with the current methods, this method can be well applied to the ionosphere short-term prediction with the advantage of higher precision, fewer parameters and more simple calculation. Then different sampling rate TEC data were used to short-term forecast, which demonstrate that high sampling rate has little effect to forecast prevision, so 2-hour TEC data could be used in forecast in application, which could reduce the computational complexity, shortened the computing time and improve the forecast efficiency of this method.
引文
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