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居民收入差距的测度、影响因素及经济效应研究
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摘要
居民收入分配问题是关乎国家经济、社会发展和人民生活的重大问题,适度的收入差距能促进经济增长,促进人民参与社会经济活动的积极性,而不适度甚至过大的收入差距则会阻碍经济发展,同时收入分配的不公平性还会带来其他的社会问题,影响社会稳定和谐。党中央一直都高度重视公平有效的分配方式的建立,要求社会主义和谐社会必须有能兼顾公平和效率的有效的分配制度。为此,诸多经济学家和研究者也展开了相关研究。在这样的背景和环境下,本文对居民收入差距的测度、影响因素及经济效应做了研究,文章一共六章,第一章是导论;第二章是居民收入差距研究的理论基础;第三章是居民收入差距的测度方法;第四章是我国居民收入差距的现状演变及影响因素分析;第五章是我国居民收入差距与消费的耦合效应分析;第六章是总结和研究展望。下面将对每章主要内容具体阐述。
     第一章是导论,简述选题背景意义,国内外研究现状,本文的主要研究思路和方法,研究内容的重点难点。收入分配问题既是经济学问题,也是社会问题,如何有效地控制收入差距扩大的趋势,是思考国家稳定发展大计时应该着重关注的问题。在研究居民收入差距的基础上,进一步探究居民收入差距形成的原因、影响因素对于缩小收入差距是很有意义的。研究居民收入差距的国内外文献数量比较丰富,主要集中在两个大的方面,一是对于收入差距测度方法的研究,一是对于收入差距的演变发展及影响因素的研究,分别引导了数量方法和政策建议两个研究方向的发展。而本文的研究思路和方法是,针对基尼系数的局限,提出一种较为完善合理的收入差距衡量指标;在此方法基础上,研究收入差距的成因和影响因素,分别从城乡差距、地区差距、行业差距和性别差距四个角度进行测度和实证分析,进而研究收入差距的经济效应;然后,分别针对每类差距情况,给出缩小差距的相应政策建议。在研究思路上,以寻求缩小收入差距,促进经济增长为目标,遵循理论基础-方法研究-实证分析-政策建议的研究范式,着力体现理论联系实际,理论研究为经济发展服务的主旨。通过定性分析与定量分析、理论分析与实证检验、现状剖析与历史对比,研究我国居民收入差距的现状和经济效应,寻找相应的政策建议缩小收入差距。
     第二章是居民收入差距研究的理论基础,包括居民收入分配理论及发展,居民收入流动性理论,居民收入差距收敛性理论。关于居民收入分配理论是整个经济学理论中非常重要的一块,与生产与发展、效率与公平等均有重要联系。无论是劳动收入还是非劳动收入、功能收入分配或规模收入分配,都与居民的生产生活息息相关,与社会经济的发展丝丝相扣。从西方古典学派亚当·斯密的三个阶级收入分配理论,到李嘉图的三个阶级分配模型,再到新古典学派和凯恩斯学派的收入分配理论,以及新剑桥学派的分配理论,无论是基于要素的分配,还是剩余价值的分割;无论是国民收入分配决定经济增长,还是围绕收入分配展开讨论经济理论,这反映的是以市场为基础的传统收入分配理论的发展。从福利经济学的收入均等化的分配理论,到发展经济学的库兹涅茨倒U形理论,再到注重收入分配格局的传导机制的内生收入分配理论,这是收入分配理论的发展导致的多学科细化融合以及丰富的过程,并且反映了市场调控为基础到国家宏观调控为主导的当代收入分配理论的发展。而关于收入分配理论的重要性,也经过了一个长时间多阶段的发展认可过程。研究居民收入分配差距及相关问题,理论基础是扎实成熟的,研究依据是可靠敦厚的,研究方法是丰富多样的,研究视角是新颖独特的,在这些理论基础上取得的研究成果也是值得信赖的。
     第三章是居民收入差距的测度方法,是本文的一个重要组成内容。既有对已有方法的总结归纳,又有对新方法的构建说明;既有对各种方法的优点的提炼阐述,又有对一些缺点或错误的评述改进;既有对收入差距及不公平性测度的重点研究,又有对其他相关测度指标的综合运用和说明。总之本章测度方法的研究比较全面丰富,力争内容充实视角新颖。收入差距测度中最常用的是基尼系数,对于基尼系数的研究主要集中在计算方法和分解,在分解方面,泰尔指数具有完全分解的较大优势。对于基尼系数的改进,一方面是基于等基尼系数线提出平均增长点和均优点的概念进行共同衡量;另一方面是对基尼系数本身进行改进,提出修正加权基尼系数、单参数基尼系数(S基尼系数)、广义基尼系数(E基尼系数)等经过部分改进的指标。除了基尼系数相关研究外,测度收入差距还有很多其他重要指标,例如熵指数方法、阿特金森指数、变异系数、均等指数。此外,与收入不公平测度相关的其他指标还有FGT指数、Sen指数、Kakwani指数(测度不公平性)等,各种指标有其侧重点和适用领域范围,准确掌握其性质后,可根据各阶段情形适当选取指标进行综合测度。
     第四章是我国居民收入差距的现状演变及影响因素分析,分别从城乡差距、地区差距、行业差距,及性别差距几个方面进行研究,并针对不同类型的居民收入差距提出了一些提高收入和缩小差距的政策建议。
     对于我国城乡居民收入差距的影响因素进行分析得出,我国城乡居民收入与农村人口占全国比、人口自然增长率和第一产业比重负相关,因此要提高城乡居民整体收入状况、缩小城乡收入差距,就应该降低农村人口比和控制人口数量,同时降低第一产业在国民经济中的比重。同时通过与居民收入正相关的系列指标分析得出,要将依靠低技术高劳动强度的农业,逐渐转换成高技术低劳动强度的农业,和工业化的农业,即依靠技术使得农业自动化智能化,从传统形式逐渐向第二第三产业形式转移,同时促进工业和技术的发展,提高第二和第三产业比重。缩小城乡差距的方法建议都可以归结到促进农村和农业的发展,加强农业的现代化、工业化,降低农业在国民经济中的比重,促进农村的城市化发展上来。
     若要减小地区差距,则应该加大对社会福利和保障的投入,建立健全居民医疗保险、养老保险等社会基本保障制度,扩大社会福利的惠及面;同时发展教育,加大对教育的投入,确保居民受教育的深度和广度;要加大社会固定资产的投资和再生产,加快经济建设和发展,同时要注意生态环境的保护与对生态产业的投入,注意人与自然和谐相处,为经济长期而稳定的发展打下坚实的生态基础;同时,大力发展第三产业,加大第三产业在国民经济中的比重;此外,要提供更多就业机会,降低居民失业率,为降低居民收入的地区差距提供更多可能性。
     要缩小我国居民行业收入差距,应从以下几方面着手:一是重视资金的规模效应,增加规模以上项目的数量;二是重视各行业固定资产投资,平衡各行业间占有的资金和资源;三是打破垄断局面,增加竞争,通过竞争带动发展,同时为已经过一段时间较充分竞争的低收入行业注入新鲜血液;四是重视各行业人力资本的教育和培训,不仅是就业前的学校教育,也包括就业后的技能培训和岗位指导,用工作效率代替工作时间,争取做到劳动密集型向技术密集型和资金密集型的转变。
     针对我国的居民收入性别差距,及相关的行业,年龄,教育程度等影响因素,缩小性别收入差距应从以下几方面着手:一是加强对退休年龄的女性的收入保障,打破对男女在年龄方面的不同待遇的歧视;而是加强教育,尤其是增强女性的学历背景,使其能获得更多提高收入的机会;三是在不同所有制企业,都要确保公平性,尤其是对私有制企业里的玻璃屋顶现象应该尽量避免,使女性在升职和加薪方面能得到公平的机会。通过全社会对女性就业和晋升机会公平的增加来提高女性收入,缩小性别收入差距。最重要的是打破偏见,在就业机会和晋升机会面前做到男女平等,不要人为地放大女性的家庭和社会责任给就业和收入带来的负面影响,要多关爱多包容,促进全社会的两性平等与和谐发展。
     第五章是我国居民收入差距与消费的耦合效应分析,从时间和空间两个大的方面研究了增加收入对消费的刺激作用,和消费水平受到收入水平影响程度的大小。关于增加居民收入对刺激消费的有效性研究方面,本文从时间序列上采用了不同的时间段,用时间分布滞后模型,先研究了居民消费与当期收入的关系,后研究了居民消费与前期收入的关系,得出当期可支配收入每增加一个单位,会使当期消费支出增加约0.623个单位;上一期收入每增加一个单位,会使当期消费增加约0.278个单位;而上三期收入每增加一个单位,会使当期消费减少约0.125个单位的结论。除了时间上收入与消费关系的差异外,我国地域上的差异也较明显,处于不同收入水平的地区的边际消费倾向明显不同。实证部分首先利用全国地市级的数据进行了聚类分析,对各市的人均收入和消费进行区域聚类,得到九个类别,然后根据凯恩斯消费函数模型,对九类地区分组回归得出我国居民收入的边际消费倾向与收入的关系,回归结果显示我国居民收入的边际消费倾向与收入之间呈现二次项系数为负数的二次函数形式,进一步用多种形式的函数表达式进行拟合,得出拟合优度最好的是三次函数形式,且此三次函数形式可以用之前的二次函数代入得出,说明其表达式是可信的。而据此分析得出的提高居民收入水平的方法则是一提一控,控制商品价格,提高居民实际购买力。同时,还应关注不同地区的收入差距问题,在解决地区收入大差距的问题的前提下,提高全社会共同的消费水平和经济发展水平。
     第六章是总结和研究展望,对全文内容做了一个总结,提出了研究中存在的不足之处,拟改进方法,以及在全文基础上的进一步研究展望。
The problem of residents' income distribution is the major issues relating to thecountry's economic, social development and people's living. Modest income gap canpromote economic growth, to promote the enthusiasm of the people to participate insocial and economic activities, while inappropriate or excessive income gap willhinder economic development, at the same time, the unfairness of the incomedistribution will also bring other social problems that affect social stability andharmony. The CPC Central Committee has always attached great importance to theestablishment of a fair and effective allocation, a socialist harmonious society musthave an effective distribution system both fair and efficient. For this reason, manyeconomists and researchers also carried out related research. Measure of residents'income gap and economic effects in the background and environment, a total of sixchapters, and the first chapter is the Introduction; Chapter two is the theoretical basisof the research of the residents' income gap; Chapter three is measure of residents'income gap; Chapter four is evolution of the current situation of the residents' incomegap in China and its influencing factors; Chapter five is coupling effect analysis ofresidents' income gap and consumption in China; Chapter six is summary and researchprospects. The following is the main content of each chapter specifically addressed.
     The first chapter is the introduction, the significance of the brief researchbackground, research status at home and abroad, the main research ideas and methodsto study the contents of the key and difficult. Income distribution is not onlyeconomic issues, but also social issues, and how to effectively control the trend ofwidening income gap is thinking about national stability and development of the largetiming should focus on the problem. Further explore the reasons for the formation ofresidents 'income gap, on the basis of study of residents' income gap, the influencingfactors for narrowing the income gap is significant. Rich study residents' income gapbetween the number of domestic and foreign literature, mainly in two aspects,Measurement Methods for the income gap, the research for the development andimpact factors in the evolution of the income gap, respectively, to guide thequantitative methods the development of two research directions and policyrecommendations. The ideas and methods of this research, the limitations of the Ginicoefficient, proposed a more perfect and reasonable income gap metrics; This method is based on the study the causes and influencing factors of the income gap, the gapfrom the gap between urban and rural areas, regions, four angles of the trade gap andthe gender gap measure and empirical analysis, led him to study the economic effectsof the income gap; then, respectively, for each type of gap, given the correspondingpolicy recommendations to close the gap. Research ideas, to seek to narrow theincome gap, promote economic growth "as the goal, follow the theoretical foundation-Method-Empirical Analysis-Policy Recommendations" research paradigm andstrive to embody the theory with practice and theoretical research services foreconomic development subject. By qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,theory and Empirical Analysis, Situation Analysis of historical comparison, to studythe current situation of Chinese residents' income gap and economic effects, findingthe appropriate policy recommendations to narrow the income gap.
     The second chapter is the theoretical basis of the residents' income gap betweenresearch, theory and development of residents' income distribution, the residentsincome flows theory, convergence theory of residents' income gap. Resident incomedistribution theory is a very important one, and the production and development,efficiency and fairness in the entire economic theory have an important contact. Bothlabor income and non-labor income, the functional distribution of income or the scaleof the income distribution, are closely related to the production and living of residents,and the socio-economic development of the slightest interlocking. From Westernclassical school of Adam Smith's three class theory of income distribution, to theRicardian three class allocation model, to the neoclassical theory of incomedistribution and the Keynesians, as well as new distribution theory of the Cambridgeschool, whether it is based on the elements of the distribution of the residual valuedivided; economic growth, national income allocation decisions still around to discusseconomic theory of income distribution, which reflects a market-based developmentof the traditional theory of income distribution."Income equalization" from welfareeconomics theory of distribution, to development economics Kuznets invertedU-shaped theory, to focus on the endogenous theory of income distribution in theconduction mechanism of the pattern of income distribution, which is the theory ofincome distribution development has led multi-disciplinary a refined fusion as well asa wealth of process and reflect market regulation based on macroeco nomic regulationand control of the state-led development of the contemporary theory of incomedistribution. About the importance of the theory of income distribution, after an ah aprolonged multi-phase development of the accreditation process. Study resi dents' income gap and related issues, the theoretical foundation is solid and mature, theresearch is based on reliable and honest, the research is rich and diverse, uniqueresearch perspective, the research on the basis of these theories is trusted.
     The third chapter is a measure of residents' income gap is an importantcomponent of the contents of this article. Both summarized in the summary of theexisting methods, there are instructions for building the new method; refinement ofboth the advantages of various methods elaborated, there are some shortcomings orerrors commentary improvement; existing income disparities and unfair the measurefocus research, but also on other relevant measure indicators integrated use of anddescription. In short, this chapter of Measurement of more comprehensive rich, tostrive informative fresh perspective. The income gap measure most commonly used isthe Gini coefficient, Gini coefficient is mainly concentrated in the calculation methodand the decomposition of Theil index decomposition, has the greater advantage ofcompletely decomposed. For the improvement of the Gini coefficient, on the one hand,is based on the Gini coefficient line average growth points and were the advantages ofthe concept of a common measure; the other hand, to improve the Gini coefficient, topropose amendments weighted Gini coefficient, the single parameters Gini coefficient(S Gini coefficient), the generalized Gini Coefficient (E Gini coefficient) partiallyimproved indicators. In addition to the Gini coefficient, a measure income gap thereare many other important indicators, such as entropy index method, Atkinson index,coefficient of variation, the GPI. In addition, revenue is not a fair measure otherindicators related to the FGT index, Sen index, Kakwani index (measure ofunfairness), various indicators of their focus and field of application range, accurateknowledge of their nature, according the stage the situation appropriately selectedindicators comprehensive measure.
     The fourth chapter is the evolution of the current situation of the residents'income gap in China and its influencing factors, respectively, from the aspects of thegap between urban and rural areas, regional disparities, trade gap, and the gender gap,and made a number of different types of residents' income gap increase revenueandbridging the gap between policy recommendations. Analyzes the influencingfactors of the income gap between the urban and rural residents in China, China'surban and rural residents' income and rural population accounts for the country thanthe natural population growth rate and the proportion of primary industry negativelycorrelated, to improve the overall income situation of urban and rural residents,narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas should reduce the rural population ratio and population control, while reducing the proportion of the primaryindustry in the national economy. Drawn through a series of indicators positivelycorrelated with the residents' income analysis at the same time, you want to rely onlow technology and high labor intensity of agriculture gradually converted into ahigh-tech low labor intensity of agriculture, and the industrialization of agriculture, inwhich the technology enables intelligent automation of agriculture from traditionalforms gradually transferred to the second and third industries, while promoting thedevelopment of industry and technology, to improve the second and the proportion oftertiary industry. The method proposed to narrow the gap between urban and ruralareas can be attributed to promote rural and agricultural development, strengthenagricultural modernization, industrialization, and to reduce the share of agriculture inthe national economy, and promote the development of rural urbanization up.
     To reduce the regional disparities should increase investment in social welfareand security, establish and improve residents' health insurance, pension insurance,basic social security system, the expansion of social welfare benefit si de; same timethe development of education, increase investment in education, to ensure that theresidents in the depth and breadth of education; to increase social investment in fixedassets and reproduction, speed up economic construction and development, keeping inmind the protection of the ecological environment and eco-industrial inputs, payattention to the harmony between man and nature, as economiclay a solid ecologicalbasis for the long-term and stable development; vigorously develop the tertiaryindustry, to increase the proportion of tertiary industry in the national economy;addition, to provide more employment opportunities, and reduce the residentunemployment rate, to reduce residents' incomeregional disparities provide morepossibilities.
     To narrow the income gap of Chinese residents industries, should be in thefollowing aspects: First, the money is economies of scale, increasing the number ofabove-scale projects; emphasis on investment in fixed assets of the various industries,the balance between industries possession of funds and resources; break the monopoly,increased competition, driven by competition and development, and to inject freshblood into the low-income sectors of fully competitive and has been for some time;attention to the education and training of human capital in various industries, not onlyis the school education, pre-employment including job skills training and jobguidance, instead of working time efficiency, strive for the transformation of thelabor-intensive to technology-intensive and capital-intensive.
     Narrow the gender pay gap for our residents income gender gap, and relatedindustry, age, education, and other influencing factors, from the following aspects:First, strengthen income security retirement age of women to break the men andwomen in terms of agedifferent treatment discrimination; but to strengthen education,especially to enhance women's educational background, so that it can get moreopportunities to increase revenue; enterprises of different ownersh ip, must ensurefairness, especially in the private ownership of firms "the phenomenon of the glassceiling "should be avoided, so that women can get a fair chance in the promotions andraises. Increase in female employment and promotion opportunities fair to increasewomen's income through the whole society, narrowing the gender pay gap. The mostimportant thing is to break the prejudice, in front of the employment opportunities andadvancement opportunities to achieve equality between men and women, not t oartificially enlarge the negative impact of the women's family and socialresponsibility to provide employment and income to be more caring and moreinclusive, and the promotion of gender in society as a whole equality and harmonydevelopment.
     Chapter five is income gap in China with the consumption of the coupling effectsof the stimulating effect of the increase in income on consumption from two aspectsof time and space research, by the size of the impact of income levels andconsumption levels. Effectiveness research to stimulate consumption, increase incomefrom the time series on different time periods, with time distributed lag model, thefirst to study the relationship between the consumer and current income, after a studyof the consumer and pre-revenue relationship obtained current disposable incomeeach increased by one unit, make current consumption expenditures increasedapproximately0.623units; an income per one unit increase causes the currentconsumption of approximately0.278units; previous three income per increase by oneunit, causes the current consumption to reduce the conclusion of about0.125units. Inaddition to the difference of time on income and consumption relations, ourgeographical differences are more obvious, significantly different at different incomelevels in the region of the marginal propensity to consume. Empirical part first use ofthe data in the cluster analysis of the national and municipal, regional clustering ofmunicipalities per capita income and consumption, nine categories, according to theKeynesian consumption function model regression grouping of nine categories ofareas that our country residents the marginal propensity to consume income andincome relationship, the regression results show negative quadratic function of the form, function further forms of expression were fitted quadratic coefficient ispresented between the marginal propensity to consume and the income of Chineseresidents' income, come to the goodness of fit is the best form of a cubic fu nction, andthis three function form can be used prior to a quadratic function on behalf into thedraw, the expression is credible. That analysis method to improve the income level ofresidents drawn mentioning a control, control commodity prices, increase the realpurchasing power of residents. At the same time, it should be concerned about thedifferent parts of the income gap under the premise to solve the problem of regionalincome gap and improve the common level of consumption of the whole society andeconomic development level.
     Chapter six is summary and research prospects, a summary of the full-textcontent, inadequacies study intends to improved methods, as well as the full text onthe basis of further research prospects.
引文
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