林木生物质能源开发利用及其产业支撑体系构建研究
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摘要
林木生物质能源作为生物质能源的重要组成部分,其开发利用已经引起了世界各国政府的重视,并成为世界各国未来在能源战场上角逐的战略筹码。目前,在美国、欧盟等一些发达国家其发展已经较为成熟,如生物燃料乙醇、生物柴油大多都已经实现产业化,有着相对稳定的市场,并在一定程度上起到缓解能源紧缺、优化生态环境、增加农民收入的作用。相比之下,我国林木生物质能源开发利用虽受到政府重视,但由于起步时间晚、发展规模小、技术创新突破难等因素,使得该产业发展仍然处于开发利用起步阶段,并未实现真正意义上的产业化。如林木生物质固体成型燃料、林木生物质液态燃料、林木生物质发电等在发展过程中仍然面临许多问题,特别是受原料供应的制约较大,使得定向培育一定规模的能源林成为该产业发展中的关键问题。因此,本文以林木生物质能源开发利用及其产业发展为研究对象,以能源安全与粮食安全为研究背景、运用农业经济学、可持续发展经济学、博弈论与信息经济学相关原理及理论,构建企业和林农之间的博弈模型、农户生产决策模型和Logistic回归模型,分析影响林木生物质能源开发利用的因素,并针对具体的问题,提出促进林木生物质能源产业发展的三大支撑体系,即政策支撑体系、技术支撑体系和市场支撑体系。全文的主要研究内容和主要结论如下：
第一：分析林木生物质能源开发利用的现状。研究发现在能源安全、粮食安全双重约束的背景下,开发利用林木生物质能源已迫在眉睫,它已成为协调能源安全与粮食安全的有效途径。尽管林木生物质能源在资源与技术上都具备了一定的开发优势,特别是林木生物质发电、林木生物燃料乙醇、林木生物柴油的开发利用都有了一定程度上的进展,不少已经进入项目的示范阶段。但从整体上来看,还存在很多问题。如目前因政策法规不健全、市场流通不畅、投融资体制不健全等因素的存在,使得林木生物质能源产业还未能真正走向产业化,目前仍处于开发建设阶段。据此,本文研究认为,正确梳理其开发利用过程中各个不同利益主体之间的关系及其对该产业的影响,将有利于林木生物质能源开发利用项目突破重围,真正走向大发展及其良性循环。
第二：林木生物质能源开发利用行为主体的博弈分析。研究认为林木生物质能源开发利用过程中涉及种苗选育、栽培、管护、采集、收购、运输、储存、加工销售等多个环节,它是一个包括多个环节的产业链,政府、企业、林农三个不同利益主体在一定开发机制下相互影响、相互制约、相互协调、相互作用,而产业发展离不开任何一方的有效参与,他们作为林木生物质能源开发利用的有效行为主体在主观决策上对林木生物质能源的发展产生重要影响。通过构建企业和林农主体间的博弈模型,发现只有在他们各自所获得的额外效用大于他们所支付的开发建设成本时,林木生物质能源林建设项目才能顺利展开。即U11-U10、U21-U20的值越大,林农和企业在林木生物质能源林开发建设项目中所获得的预期效用越大,而该项目的开发建设作为一组最优的纳什均衡组合将越被企业和林农所接受,帕累托改进将越有可能形成。
第三：林农参与林木生物质能源开发利用的实证分析。研究利用湖北省谷城县、宜昌市所辖地区的182份农户调研问卷数据,运用Logistic多元回归分析林农参与林木生物质能源开发利用的影响因素,结论认为：该项目在该地区开发利用受林农性别、年龄、文化水平的影响不大,而受外部环境变量影响较大,特别是政府的补贴、政府宣传和引导都成为影响该项目能否顺利展开的主要因素。因此,在今后林木生物质能源开发利用中,一方面政府需要通过制定优惠政策引导企业入驻当地,保证能源林产品销路,免去农民的后顾之忧；一方面需要政府宣传引导农民参与,提高农民参与意愿。还要注意加强公众对常规能源发展、环境保护的认识,防止出现林农在未来预期效益不稳定时,“一窝蜂”撤出现象的发生。
第四：政府参与林木生物质能源开发利用的分析。研究发现政府政策因素在单一目标体系和多目标体系下对林木生物质能源产业发展产生的影响不同。在多目标体系下,多个产业间由于政府制定了不同的政策,就有可能对相关产业带来影响,例如在传统石油产业,因资源不足而衰减的情况下,政府制定了以玉米为原料的生物质液态燃料产业发展的补贴政策,对林木生物质能源产业发展产生了直接影响。因此,为了更好地促进和支持新型产业的发展,政府在制定政策时需要平衡各产业间的发展关系,制定合理的产业政策。
第五：林木生物质能源开发利用产业支撑体系的构建。论文在借鉴国外林木生物质能源开发利用所采取的系列措施基础之上,提出构建林木生物质能源产业发展的支撑体系,主要包括政策支撑体系、技术支撑体系、市场支撑体系。在市场支撑体系中,特别明确了林木生物质能源产业发展的区域定位,即定位在农村,提出农业用能的结论。并以省级单位为研究区域,进行了林木生物质能源开发利用的市场等级划分,最终提出林木生物质能源产业发展模式,主要包括“政府+龙头企业”林电一体化模式、“政府+专业合作社+企业”模式和“政府+产业集群带动”林油一体化模式。
As an important part of biomass energy, the development and utilization of forest biomass energy have received great attention in the world and became a significant global strategic resource in future. At present, the development of the biomass energy is entering a mature period in America, European Union and some other developed countries. For example, the development of the bio-fuel ethanol and bio-diesel had realized industrialization, which does help to relieve the lack of energy, improve ecology environment and increase farmers'income to a certain extent. By contrast, the development and utilization of forest biomass energy have received great attention in China in recent years, however, the development of the industry still at the start stage that have gap to industrialization owing to the limit of the late start, small scale and technological innovation. For example, the development of forestry bio-solid fuel, forestry bio-liquid fuel and forestry bio-generation is still facing many issues, especially in material shortage, which makes certain scale energy source forestry cultivation become a key problem. Focused on the utilization of forestry biomass energy and the development of the industry, on the background of energy security and food security, based on related principles of agricultural economics, sustainable development economics, game theory and information economics, and according to the game model between enterprises and foresters, the farmer decision-making model and the Logistic regression model, the research in the thesis analyzed influence factors during the development of forestry biomass energy and proposed three support systems to stimulate the industry grows, which include policy support system, technical support system and market support system. The main contents and results are as follows:
Firstly, the dissertation studied the status of the development and utilization of forestry biomass energy. The research shows that it's urgent to develop the forestry biomass energy since it has become an effective way to coordinate energy security and food security. The development of the forestry biomass energy, such as forestry bio-solid fuel, forestry bio-liquid fuel and forestry bio-generation, has certain superiority in resource and technology, in addition, some projects have entered demonstration stage. However, there are many issues on overall development of the industry which lead to the industry is still at the start stage and have large gap to industrial, such as unsound legal system, market circulation blocking and investment and financing system imperfect. Therefore, the dissertation proposed that recognize the relationship among the behavioral agents in the industry and the influence to the project would do help to achieve virtuous circle and quickly development.
Secondly, construct a game theory analysis of behavioral agents among the development of forestry biomass energy. The development process of forestry biomass energy is an industry chain which contain many links, e.g. seed selecting, planting, management, picking, purchasing, transportation, storage, processing and sells. Under certain industry development mechanism, the government, enterprises and foresters would interact and affect each other. Moreover, it's impossible that the development of the industry depart from any behavioral agent since any decision of the behavioral agent is vital to the project. The result of the game theory analysis of enterprises and foresters showed that a necessary condition of the energy source forestry cultivation is the participation cost should lower than utility, namely the bigger the values of U11-U10 and U21-U20, the higher expected utility that enterprises and foresters get in the project. Further more, the project as a Nash Equilibrium would be accepted by enterprises and foresters, meanwhile, a Pareto Improvement is reachable.
Thirdly, empirical analyses on foresters participate in the development of forestry biomass energy. Based on a survey of 182 households in Gucheng and Yichang in Hubei province, the dissertation analyzed influence factors during the development of forestry biomass energy with the Logistic regression model. The result shows factors such as sex, age and education had little influence on the project, while external environment variables greatly affected and became main factors to the project, especially subsidies, propaganda and guidance from the government. Thus, there are two ways for the government to promote the development of forestry biomass energy. On the one hand, it's necessary for the government to establish preferential policy to attract investors and ensure products distribution in order to remove foresters'worries. And on the other hand, the government should step up publicity to encourage the participation of the foresters. Furthermore, it's essential to correct awareness on conventional energy development and environmental protection of the public so as to prevent the large-scale pull out at once when the expected benefits unreachable in future.
Fourthly, analysis on the government participates in the development of forestry biomass energy. It was found that influences of policy factors to the development of the industry are different based on the unique target system and the multi-objective system. Under the multi-objective system, the development of the industry may affect associated industry for different policies from the government to different industry. For example, the development of forestry biomass energy industry was directly affected by a bio-liquid fuel subsidy policy, which was made under the condition of petroleum resource shortage. Consequently, in order to promote and support the development of emerging industry, government should pay attention to coordinate the relationship of different industries when making relevant policies.
Fifthly, construct industry supporting system of forestry biomass energy. Based on analysis of series policy guarantees of the development of forestry biomass energy in foreign countries, the thesis proposed industry supporting systems construction of forestry biomass energy, which includes policy support system, technical support system and market support system. In the market support system, the paper pointed out rural area location of the industry development particularly and the conclusion of agricultural energy. Furthermore, taking the province as the research object, the thesis graded the forestry biomass energy market and proposed a development mode of forestry biomass energy industry, which is consisted of "government+corporate champion" forestry-electric unionization mode, "government+cooperative organization+enterprise" mode and "government+industrial group" forestry-oil unionization mode.
第一：分析林木生物质能源开发利用的现状。研究发现在能源安全、粮食安全双重约束的背景下,开发利用林木生物质能源已迫在眉睫,它已成为协调能源安全与粮食安全的有效途径。尽管林木生物质能源在资源与技术上都具备了一定的开发优势,特别是林木生物质发电、林木生物燃料乙醇、林木生物柴油的开发利用都有了一定程度上的进展,不少已经进入项目的示范阶段。但从整体上来看,还存在很多问题。如目前因政策法规不健全、市场流通不畅、投融资体制不健全等因素的存在,使得林木生物质能源产业还未能真正走向产业化,目前仍处于开发建设阶段。据此,本文研究认为,正确梳理其开发利用过程中各个不同利益主体之间的关系及其对该产业的影响,将有利于林木生物质能源开发利用项目突破重围,真正走向大发展及其良性循环。
第二：林木生物质能源开发利用行为主体的博弈分析。研究认为林木生物质能源开发利用过程中涉及种苗选育、栽培、管护、采集、收购、运输、储存、加工销售等多个环节,它是一个包括多个环节的产业链,政府、企业、林农三个不同利益主体在一定开发机制下相互影响、相互制约、相互协调、相互作用,而产业发展离不开任何一方的有效参与,他们作为林木生物质能源开发利用的有效行为主体在主观决策上对林木生物质能源的发展产生重要影响。通过构建企业和林农主体间的博弈模型,发现只有在他们各自所获得的额外效用大于他们所支付的开发建设成本时,林木生物质能源林建设项目才能顺利展开。即U11-U10、U21-U20的值越大,林农和企业在林木生物质能源林开发建设项目中所获得的预期效用越大,而该项目的开发建设作为一组最优的纳什均衡组合将越被企业和林农所接受,帕累托改进将越有可能形成。
第三：林农参与林木生物质能源开发利用的实证分析。研究利用湖北省谷城县、宜昌市所辖地区的182份农户调研问卷数据,运用Logistic多元回归分析林农参与林木生物质能源开发利用的影响因素,结论认为：该项目在该地区开发利用受林农性别、年龄、文化水平的影响不大,而受外部环境变量影响较大,特别是政府的补贴、政府宣传和引导都成为影响该项目能否顺利展开的主要因素。因此,在今后林木生物质能源开发利用中,一方面政府需要通过制定优惠政策引导企业入驻当地,保证能源林产品销路,免去农民的后顾之忧；一方面需要政府宣传引导农民参与,提高农民参与意愿。还要注意加强公众对常规能源发展、环境保护的认识,防止出现林农在未来预期效益不稳定时,“一窝蜂”撤出现象的发生。
第四：政府参与林木生物质能源开发利用的分析。研究发现政府政策因素在单一目标体系和多目标体系下对林木生物质能源产业发展产生的影响不同。在多目标体系下,多个产业间由于政府制定了不同的政策,就有可能对相关产业带来影响,例如在传统石油产业,因资源不足而衰减的情况下,政府制定了以玉米为原料的生物质液态燃料产业发展的补贴政策,对林木生物质能源产业发展产生了直接影响。因此,为了更好地促进和支持新型产业的发展,政府在制定政策时需要平衡各产业间的发展关系,制定合理的产业政策。
第五：林木生物质能源开发利用产业支撑体系的构建。论文在借鉴国外林木生物质能源开发利用所采取的系列措施基础之上,提出构建林木生物质能源产业发展的支撑体系,主要包括政策支撑体系、技术支撑体系、市场支撑体系。在市场支撑体系中,特别明确了林木生物质能源产业发展的区域定位,即定位在农村,提出农业用能的结论。并以省级单位为研究区域,进行了林木生物质能源开发利用的市场等级划分,最终提出林木生物质能源产业发展模式,主要包括“政府+龙头企业”林电一体化模式、“政府+专业合作社+企业”模式和“政府+产业集群带动”林油一体化模式。
As an important part of biomass energy, the development and utilization of forest biomass energy have received great attention in the world and became a significant global strategic resource in future. At present, the development of the biomass energy is entering a mature period in America, European Union and some other developed countries. For example, the development of the bio-fuel ethanol and bio-diesel had realized industrialization, which does help to relieve the lack of energy, improve ecology environment and increase farmers'income to a certain extent. By contrast, the development and utilization of forest biomass energy have received great attention in China in recent years, however, the development of the industry still at the start stage that have gap to industrialization owing to the limit of the late start, small scale and technological innovation. For example, the development of forestry bio-solid fuel, forestry bio-liquid fuel and forestry bio-generation is still facing many issues, especially in material shortage, which makes certain scale energy source forestry cultivation become a key problem. Focused on the utilization of forestry biomass energy and the development of the industry, on the background of energy security and food security, based on related principles of agricultural economics, sustainable development economics, game theory and information economics, and according to the game model between enterprises and foresters, the farmer decision-making model and the Logistic regression model, the research in the thesis analyzed influence factors during the development of forestry biomass energy and proposed three support systems to stimulate the industry grows, which include policy support system, technical support system and market support system. The main contents and results are as follows:
Firstly, the dissertation studied the status of the development and utilization of forestry biomass energy. The research shows that it's urgent to develop the forestry biomass energy since it has become an effective way to coordinate energy security and food security. The development of the forestry biomass energy, such as forestry bio-solid fuel, forestry bio-liquid fuel and forestry bio-generation, has certain superiority in resource and technology, in addition, some projects have entered demonstration stage. However, there are many issues on overall development of the industry which lead to the industry is still at the start stage and have large gap to industrial, such as unsound legal system, market circulation blocking and investment and financing system imperfect. Therefore, the dissertation proposed that recognize the relationship among the behavioral agents in the industry and the influence to the project would do help to achieve virtuous circle and quickly development.
Secondly, construct a game theory analysis of behavioral agents among the development of forestry biomass energy. The development process of forestry biomass energy is an industry chain which contain many links, e.g. seed selecting, planting, management, picking, purchasing, transportation, storage, processing and sells. Under certain industry development mechanism, the government, enterprises and foresters would interact and affect each other. Moreover, it's impossible that the development of the industry depart from any behavioral agent since any decision of the behavioral agent is vital to the project. The result of the game theory analysis of enterprises and foresters showed that a necessary condition of the energy source forestry cultivation is the participation cost should lower than utility, namely the bigger the values of U11-U10 and U21-U20, the higher expected utility that enterprises and foresters get in the project. Further more, the project as a Nash Equilibrium would be accepted by enterprises and foresters, meanwhile, a Pareto Improvement is reachable.
Thirdly, empirical analyses on foresters participate in the development of forestry biomass energy. Based on a survey of 182 households in Gucheng and Yichang in Hubei province, the dissertation analyzed influence factors during the development of forestry biomass energy with the Logistic regression model. The result shows factors such as sex, age and education had little influence on the project, while external environment variables greatly affected and became main factors to the project, especially subsidies, propaganda and guidance from the government. Thus, there are two ways for the government to promote the development of forestry biomass energy. On the one hand, it's necessary for the government to establish preferential policy to attract investors and ensure products distribution in order to remove foresters'worries. And on the other hand, the government should step up publicity to encourage the participation of the foresters. Furthermore, it's essential to correct awareness on conventional energy development and environmental protection of the public so as to prevent the large-scale pull out at once when the expected benefits unreachable in future.
Fourthly, analysis on the government participates in the development of forestry biomass energy. It was found that influences of policy factors to the development of the industry are different based on the unique target system and the multi-objective system. Under the multi-objective system, the development of the industry may affect associated industry for different policies from the government to different industry. For example, the development of forestry biomass energy industry was directly affected by a bio-liquid fuel subsidy policy, which was made under the condition of petroleum resource shortage. Consequently, in order to promote and support the development of emerging industry, government should pay attention to coordinate the relationship of different industries when making relevant policies.
Fifthly, construct industry supporting system of forestry biomass energy. Based on analysis of series policy guarantees of the development of forestry biomass energy in foreign countries, the thesis proposed industry supporting systems construction of forestry biomass energy, which includes policy support system, technical support system and market support system. In the market support system, the paper pointed out rural area location of the industry development particularly and the conclusion of agricultural energy. Furthermore, taking the province as the research object, the thesis graded the forestry biomass energy market and proposed a development mode of forestry biomass energy industry, which is consisted of "government+corporate champion" forestry-electric unionization mode, "government+cooperative organization+enterprise" mode and "government+industrial group" forestry-oil unionization mode.
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