城市轨道交通网络化运营风险与安全评估
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摘要
随着城市轨道交通的快速发展,部分特大城市的轨道交通进入网络化运营时代,路网规模不断扩大,客流量与日剧增。城市轨道交通网络化运营特点与以往单线运营相比发生了变化,主要体现在运力运量矛盾突出、站站之间关联度增强,局部问题对整个网络运营系统的波及联动效应更加突出,运营风险增大。本论文旨在建立一套面向城市轨道交通网络化运营的风险分析、安全评估理论和方法,主要从以下几个方面进行研究：
(1)从全局行为风险和安全性出发,运用系统工程的思想,提出城市轨道交通网络化运营风险分析和安全评估的体系框架；
(2)以路网拓扑结构为基础,以系统功能和客流为主线,通过构建城市轨道交通动态有向加权路网模型和运输网模型,从异质性(拓扑结构、运输能力和客流量)、脆弱性(拓扑结构、运输能力和客流量)、连通度和客流分布不均衡性等不同方面对城市轨道交通网络化运营的风险进行了分析；
(3)在上述基础上,提出了城市轨道交通网络化运营关键车站和区间的辨识方法,为运营管理和监控提供辅助决策支持；基于Topsis和灰色关联分析方法构建立了城市轨道交通网络化运营安全时序动态综合评估模型。
论文以北京城市轨道交通为例,对上述方法的可行性和合理性进行了验证。通过分析发现,在一定路网拓扑结构条件下,城市轨道交通网络化运营风险是随时间动态变化的：一方面,运行组织开行列车数量越多,客流量越大,微观单元功能属性分布越不均匀,一旦车站和区间失效,网络功能受影响程度越大,网络越脆弱,伴随着的风险越大；另一方面,客流分布越不均匀,全网连通度越低；各风险测度指标之间相互作用、相互影响,任何一个指标的变化均会影响其它系列指标的变化,增大运营风险。北京城市轨道交通网络化运营在早晚高峰期间安全状态较低,而早高峰低于晚高峰。
以北京城市轨道交通路网为背景的运用结果证明本论文提出的理论和方法弥补了既有城市轨道交通运营安全评估方法的不足,能够发现网络化运营中的薄弱环节和风险管控点,为实现由“单线管理”向“路网全局管理”的转变,为提高网络化运营风险的管控能力与运营安全性提供了理论和方法的支撑。
ABSTRACT:With the rapid development of urban rail transit, some megacities'urban rail transits move into networks operation era, the networks scale expand and the passenger flows increase with each passing day. Compared with conventional single-line operations, the characteristics of networks operation mainly reflect in the obvious contradiction between passengers and capacity, the strong correlation between the stations. The local problems'linkage effect on the whole networks are more prominent, and the risk increases. The paper aims to propose a set of risk and safety assessment theory and method for urban rail transit networks operation. The research contents are as follows:
(1) Taking the network's holistic behavior risk and safety as research objectives; and on the basis of system engineering theory, the risk analysis and safety assessment framework of urban rail transit networks operation is proposed;
(2) On the basis of network topology, and centering on the system function and passengers, the dynamic and weighted network model and transportation model of ubran rail transist are eatablished; based on above, the risks of urban rail transit networks operation are analyzed from four aspects: heterogeneity (topology, transport capacity and passengers), vulnerability (topology, transport capacity and passengers), connectivity and passenger flows distribution.
(3) Based on above, the identification method of critical stations and interval in networks is proposed to provide decision support for the operation management and monitoring; and the dynamic comprehensive safety assessment model of urban rail transit network operation based on Topsis and Gray correlation analysis is established.
The feasibility and rationality of the methods described above are verified through the Beijing urban rail transit. The results show that:under existing network topology, the risks of urban rail transit network operation change dynamically:one the one hand, the more trains plan, the bigger the passengers are, and the more heterogeneous the distribution of micro-properties are, once the stations and intervals fail, the greater the influence on the network function is, the more vulnerable the network is, and the greater the risk is; on the other hand, the more unbalanced the passengers distribution is, the lower the whole network connectivity is. Additionally, the risk indicators interact each other; the change of any indicator will affect other indicators, which result in the increase of network operation risk. The safety state of Beijing urban rail transit network is lower in morning and evening peak than other periods, and is lowest in morning peak.
The studies prove the above method can make up for the shortcomings of existing risk analysis and safety assessment of urban rail transit operation, find the weak links and risk control point in whole networks, achieve the change from'single-line management'to'holistic-network management', and provide the theory and method for improving the ability of risk control and safety.
(1)从全局行为风险和安全性出发,运用系统工程的思想,提出城市轨道交通网络化运营风险分析和安全评估的体系框架；
(2)以路网拓扑结构为基础,以系统功能和客流为主线,通过构建城市轨道交通动态有向加权路网模型和运输网模型,从异质性(拓扑结构、运输能力和客流量)、脆弱性(拓扑结构、运输能力和客流量)、连通度和客流分布不均衡性等不同方面对城市轨道交通网络化运营的风险进行了分析；
(3)在上述基础上,提出了城市轨道交通网络化运营关键车站和区间的辨识方法,为运营管理和监控提供辅助决策支持；基于Topsis和灰色关联分析方法构建立了城市轨道交通网络化运营安全时序动态综合评估模型。
论文以北京城市轨道交通为例,对上述方法的可行性和合理性进行了验证。通过分析发现,在一定路网拓扑结构条件下,城市轨道交通网络化运营风险是随时间动态变化的：一方面,运行组织开行列车数量越多,客流量越大,微观单元功能属性分布越不均匀,一旦车站和区间失效,网络功能受影响程度越大,网络越脆弱,伴随着的风险越大；另一方面,客流分布越不均匀,全网连通度越低；各风险测度指标之间相互作用、相互影响,任何一个指标的变化均会影响其它系列指标的变化,增大运营风险。北京城市轨道交通网络化运营在早晚高峰期间安全状态较低,而早高峰低于晚高峰。
以北京城市轨道交通路网为背景的运用结果证明本论文提出的理论和方法弥补了既有城市轨道交通运营安全评估方法的不足,能够发现网络化运营中的薄弱环节和风险管控点,为实现由“单线管理”向“路网全局管理”的转变,为提高网络化运营风险的管控能力与运营安全性提供了理论和方法的支撑。
ABSTRACT:With the rapid development of urban rail transit, some megacities'urban rail transits move into networks operation era, the networks scale expand and the passenger flows increase with each passing day. Compared with conventional single-line operations, the characteristics of networks operation mainly reflect in the obvious contradiction between passengers and capacity, the strong correlation between the stations. The local problems'linkage effect on the whole networks are more prominent, and the risk increases. The paper aims to propose a set of risk and safety assessment theory and method for urban rail transit networks operation. The research contents are as follows:
(1) Taking the network's holistic behavior risk and safety as research objectives; and on the basis of system engineering theory, the risk analysis and safety assessment framework of urban rail transit networks operation is proposed;
(2) On the basis of network topology, and centering on the system function and passengers, the dynamic and weighted network model and transportation model of ubran rail transist are eatablished; based on above, the risks of urban rail transit networks operation are analyzed from four aspects: heterogeneity (topology, transport capacity and passengers), vulnerability (topology, transport capacity and passengers), connectivity and passenger flows distribution.
(3) Based on above, the identification method of critical stations and interval in networks is proposed to provide decision support for the operation management and monitoring; and the dynamic comprehensive safety assessment model of urban rail transit network operation based on Topsis and Gray correlation analysis is established.
The feasibility and rationality of the methods described above are verified through the Beijing urban rail transit. The results show that:under existing network topology, the risks of urban rail transit network operation change dynamically:one the one hand, the more trains plan, the bigger the passengers are, and the more heterogeneous the distribution of micro-properties are, once the stations and intervals fail, the greater the influence on the network function is, the more vulnerable the network is, and the greater the risk is; on the other hand, the more unbalanced the passengers distribution is, the lower the whole network connectivity is. Additionally, the risk indicators interact each other; the change of any indicator will affect other indicators, which result in the increase of network operation risk. The safety state of Beijing urban rail transit network is lower in morning and evening peak than other periods, and is lowest in morning peak.
The studies prove the above method can make up for the shortcomings of existing risk analysis and safety assessment of urban rail transit operation, find the weak links and risk control point in whole networks, achieve the change from'single-line management'to'holistic-network management', and provide the theory and method for improving the ability of risk control and safety.
引文
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