山东烟草卷烟出口项目风险识别与应对研究
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摘要
目前,山东的卷烟出口工作进入了关键阶段。面对包括《烟草控制框架公约》限制、国际卷烟巨鳄阻碍以及复杂国际市场情况的严峻形势,出东不但要处理好省内的卷烟销售工作,而且开拓国际市场也是山东乃至中国寻求突破,实现卷烟“走出去”战略,跻身世界烟草强手之林的必要手段。卷烟“走出去”工作任重而道远,对于国际烟草市场来说中国烟草卷烟出口工作困难重重,如何做好卷烟出口风险管理是实现卷烟“走出去”工作的重要一环。中国作为全球最大的卷烟销售市场,中国烟草长年来在国内市场形成了稳定而专业的生产组织销售服务网络,但是在国际烟草市场上却尚未形成与国内市场相对于的生产组织销售服务网络。包括山东在内的国内烟草公司卷烟出口自主品牌有税市场销售未具规模,无论是行业规模还是市场份额与国际跨国公司相比都存在很大的差距。在尝试卷烟“走出去”的过程中会遇到各个环节的压力与风险,山东烟草如何做好卷烟出口工作,运用科学手段进行风险管理,实现自主品牌在有税市场可持续发展的目标是山东卷烟能否实现卷烟“走出去”的关键。近年来山东烟草一直致力于卷烟出口工作,在运作模式、销售渠道等方面做了很多大胆的尝试,取得了一定的效果。随着工作的深入,卷烟出口风险管理的重要性就凸现了出来,如何在把握机遇的同时,做好风险的识别、应对等措施,制定一套科学的可用、可控的风险管理模式对于山东烟草卷烟出工作有着重大的指导意义。
本文是通过本人对于烟草外贸的工作经验,结合国际卷烟市场的实际情况以及中国卷烟出口资料对山东烟草卷烟出口中出现的问题和面临的困境运用科学的风险管理手段从风险识别、应对等方面进行阐述研究。首先,通过整理国内外卷烟市场的现实状况找出其中潜在的风险因素。其次运用定性、定量分析对于山东烟草卷烟出口进行风险识别。之后,结合风险应对原理以及卷烟出口实际经验提出应对方法。本文不但给国内烟草国仁提供了卷烟出口风险识别应对等方面的经验,也为山东烟草更好应对出口风险,顺利完成卷烟“走出去”的目标任务提供了参考。
At present, the export of Shandong tobacco has entered a critical stage. We face the serious limits situation of the framework convention on tobacco control, the blocking of international tobacco big competitor and complex international market situation included. Shandong province even China is not only to deal with its cigarette sales, but also explore the international market for breakthrough to realize the cigarette "going out" strategy. It is a important means for us to become the best.It is a long and difficult way to realize "going out" strategy in the international tobacco market for China cigarette export. How to do cigarette export risk management well is the most important aspects of achieving the goal. China is the world's biggest cigarette market. China tobacco has formed a stable and professional production sales and service network in the domestic market over the years for years, but it has not yet formed in the international tobacco market. Cigarette exports of domestic tobacco in the international market are weak. Whether market scale or share is a big gap compared with international multinational companies. Cigarettes will encounter difficulty during the process of "going out" of each link of pressure and risk. How to perform cigarette exports of Shandong tobacco and use the scientific method for risk management to achieve the sustainable development of independent brands in the tax market, that is the key to "going out". Shandong tobacco has been committed to cigarette exports in recent years. We have done a lot of bold attempt in the mode of operation, sales channels and have obtained the certain effect in the final. With the deepening of the work, cigarette exports are highlights the importance of risk management. How to seize the opportunities at the same time, do risk identification and response measures and formulate a set of science are available and controllable risk management model for Shandong tobacco cigarette export.It has a great guiding significance.
This article use scientific means of risk management and risk identification to research to consider the export of problems and difficulties faced with tobacco foreign trade working experience, combined with the actual situation of the international cigarette market and China's cigarette export data in Shandong cigarette by me. First of all. I find out the potential risk factors by putting the information of the present situation of domestic and abroad cigarette market in order. Secondly using qualitative and quantitative methods to analysis risk identification of Shandong cigarette exports. After that, i combined with the principle of risk and the experience of cigarette export to put forward methods. This paper not only gives colleagues of domestic tobacco for cigarette's export experience of aspects of risk identification and response, makes Shandong tobacco better to handle export risks, but also gives reference to the tasks of "going out"
本文是通过本人对于烟草外贸的工作经验,结合国际卷烟市场的实际情况以及中国卷烟出口资料对山东烟草卷烟出口中出现的问题和面临的困境运用科学的风险管理手段从风险识别、应对等方面进行阐述研究。首先,通过整理国内外卷烟市场的现实状况找出其中潜在的风险因素。其次运用定性、定量分析对于山东烟草卷烟出口进行风险识别。之后,结合风险应对原理以及卷烟出口实际经验提出应对方法。本文不但给国内烟草国仁提供了卷烟出口风险识别应对等方面的经验,也为山东烟草更好应对出口风险,顺利完成卷烟“走出去”的目标任务提供了参考。
At present, the export of Shandong tobacco has entered a critical stage. We face the serious limits situation of the framework convention on tobacco control, the blocking of international tobacco big competitor and complex international market situation included. Shandong province even China is not only to deal with its cigarette sales, but also explore the international market for breakthrough to realize the cigarette "going out" strategy. It is a important means for us to become the best.It is a long and difficult way to realize "going out" strategy in the international tobacco market for China cigarette export. How to do cigarette export risk management well is the most important aspects of achieving the goal. China is the world's biggest cigarette market. China tobacco has formed a stable and professional production sales and service network in the domestic market over the years for years, but it has not yet formed in the international tobacco market. Cigarette exports of domestic tobacco in the international market are weak. Whether market scale or share is a big gap compared with international multinational companies. Cigarettes will encounter difficulty during the process of "going out" of each link of pressure and risk. How to perform cigarette exports of Shandong tobacco and use the scientific method for risk management to achieve the sustainable development of independent brands in the tax market, that is the key to "going out". Shandong tobacco has been committed to cigarette exports in recent years. We have done a lot of bold attempt in the mode of operation, sales channels and have obtained the certain effect in the final. With the deepening of the work, cigarette exports are highlights the importance of risk management. How to seize the opportunities at the same time, do risk identification and response measures and formulate a set of science are available and controllable risk management model for Shandong tobacco cigarette export.It has a great guiding significance.
This article use scientific means of risk management and risk identification to research to consider the export of problems and difficulties faced with tobacco foreign trade working experience, combined with the actual situation of the international cigarette market and China's cigarette export data in Shandong cigarette by me. First of all. I find out the potential risk factors by putting the information of the present situation of domestic and abroad cigarette market in order. Secondly using qualitative and quantitative methods to analysis risk identification of Shandong cigarette exports. After that, i combined with the principle of risk and the experience of cigarette export to put forward methods. This paper not only gives colleagues of domestic tobacco for cigarette's export experience of aspects of risk identification and response, makes Shandong tobacco better to handle export risks, but also gives reference to the tasks of "going out"
引文
[1]沈建明.项目风险管理(第2版)[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2010.
[2]工程项目风险分析方法研究[D].吉林大学硕士论文,2008
[3]卢向南.项目计划与控制(第2版)[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2010.
[4]纵横资讯.中国卷烟行业与市场研究报告[J].2005(3)：11-13.
[5]陆惠明.工程项目管理[M].南京：东南大学出版社,2001.
[6]刘宏俊.建设施工安全评价风险的研究[J].China’s Foreign Trade,2011(5)：22-24
[7]李璨璨.工程项目风险管理研究[D].华中科技大学硕士论文,2007
[8]姜波.软件项目的风险管理详解.软件工程师[J],2011(3)：54-55
[9]彭志洪.风险投资管理与控制探析.中国高新技术企业[J],2011(4)：25-27
[10]邱蔻华.现代项目管理导论[M].机械工业出版社,2009.
[11]侯维栋.科技创新助力银行全面风险管理.中国金融[J],2011(6)：15-17
[12]赵燕,农村金融机构法律风险管理研究.中国农村金融[J],2011(3)：18-20
[13]蔡媛媛.建设工程项目风险管理研究[D].天津大学硕士论文,2009
[14]中国烟草在线
[15]王运德.煤炭企业风险管理浅析.中国集体经济[J],2011(1)：31-33
[16]申靖.关于风险管理中VaR方法的文献综述.中国集体经济[J],2011(5)：14-16
[17]张全.有关保险资金运用风险管理的思考.中国集体经济[J],2011(2)：20-22
[18]高建.我国企业集团财务公司实施风险管理战略的对策建议[J].中国集体经济,2011(8)：9-11
[19]Gavish, B. Pirkul H. Algorithms for the mul ti-resource generalized assignment problem [J].Management science,1991 (6):695-713.
[20]杨明.浅议项目风险管理的应对措施[J].现代经济信息,2010(4)：33-34
[21]常满侠.对后金融危机时代干散货运输企业财务风险管理的几点思考[J].中国总会计师,2011(6)：10-12
[22]东方烟草网
[23]秦波.中小企业的投资风险及控制研究[J].中国证券期货,2011(8)：15-16
[24]石晶山.浅淡风险投资的特征及预警管理[J].中国证券期货,2011(8)：24-25
[25]Goldratt, E M. Critical Chain[M]. Great Barrington North River Press,1997.
[26]李成.国际工程承包合同风险管理体系改进[J].中国水运,2011(12)：33-35
[27]关越.浅谈国际项目风险管理[J].科技创新导报,2011(4)：9-10
[28]钱淑红.浅析化工、石化类建设项目环境风险评价[J],科技资讯,201
[29]郝一夫,建筑工程项目风险管理研究[J].中小企业管理.与科技(下旬刊),2011(9)：21-23
[30]胡志根,肖焕雄.模糊网络计划及其工期实现的可能性研究[J].武汉水利电力大学学报,1999(5)：6-9.
[2]工程项目风险分析方法研究[D].吉林大学硕士论文,2008
[3]卢向南.项目计划与控制(第2版)[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2010.
[4]纵横资讯.中国卷烟行业与市场研究报告[J].2005(3)：11-13.
[5]陆惠明.工程项目管理[M].南京：东南大学出版社,2001.
[6]刘宏俊.建设施工安全评价风险的研究[J].China’s Foreign Trade,2011(5)：22-24
[7]李璨璨.工程项目风险管理研究[D].华中科技大学硕士论文,2007
[8]姜波.软件项目的风险管理详解.软件工程师[J],2011(3)：54-55
[9]彭志洪.风险投资管理与控制探析.中国高新技术企业[J],2011(4)：25-27
[10]邱蔻华.现代项目管理导论[M].机械工业出版社,2009.
[11]侯维栋.科技创新助力银行全面风险管理.中国金融[J],2011(6)：15-17
[12]赵燕,农村金融机构法律风险管理研究.中国农村金融[J],2011(3)：18-20
[13]蔡媛媛.建设工程项目风险管理研究[D].天津大学硕士论文,2009
[14]中国烟草在线
[15]王运德.煤炭企业风险管理浅析.中国集体经济[J],2011(1)：31-33
[16]申靖.关于风险管理中VaR方法的文献综述.中国集体经济[J],2011(5)：14-16
[17]张全.有关保险资金运用风险管理的思考.中国集体经济[J],2011(2)：20-22
[18]高建.我国企业集团财务公司实施风险管理战略的对策建议[J].中国集体经济,2011(8)：9-11
[19]Gavish, B. Pirkul H. Algorithms for the mul ti-resource generalized assignment problem [J].Management science,1991 (6):695-713.
[20]杨明.浅议项目风险管理的应对措施[J].现代经济信息,2010(4)：33-34
[21]常满侠.对后金融危机时代干散货运输企业财务风险管理的几点思考[J].中国总会计师,2011(6)：10-12
[22]东方烟草网
[23]秦波.中小企业的投资风险及控制研究[J].中国证券期货,2011(8)：15-16
[24]石晶山.浅淡风险投资的特征及预警管理[J].中国证券期货,2011(8)：24-25
[25]Goldratt, E M. Critical Chain[M]. Great Barrington North River Press,1997.
[26]李成.国际工程承包合同风险管理体系改进[J].中国水运,2011(12)：33-35
[27]关越.浅谈国际项目风险管理[J].科技创新导报,2011(4)：9-10
[28]钱淑红.浅析化工、石化类建设项目环境风险评价[J],科技资讯,201
[29]郝一夫,建筑工程项目风险管理研究[J].中小企业管理.与科技(下旬刊),2011(9)：21-23
[30]胡志根,肖焕雄.模糊网络计划及其工期实现的可能性研究[J].武汉水利电力大学学报,1999(5)：6-9.