面向空间规划的微观模拟：数据、模拟与评价
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摘要
本文旨在开展面向城市空间规划的微观模拟研究，对规划编制和评估中的规划支持方法进行探讨。城乡规划作为快速增长地区的空间管理手段，我国近年来这方面的计算机辅助规划技术应用水平不断深入，最主要的形式是地理信息系统（GIS）、RS、土地利用与交通模型等。但城市作为复杂自适应系统，由若干物理空间的地块和社会空间的城市活动主体构成，以元胞自动机（CA）和多主体系统（MAS）的自下而上的微观模拟方法在城市规划研究中有较大发展前景。本文以GIS、CA和MAS作为主要研究手段，构建相应的微观模拟模型，用于规划方案的模拟和评价，并在真实城市进行实证分析，具体包括：
一、探索为微观模拟模型提供数据条件的技术方法，在目前的数据稀缺环境下，综合考虑已有的统计数据、小规模典型调查数据，以及常识性知识，反演微观样本，作为微观模拟模型的数据支撑。
二、建立微观模拟模型，支持空间规划方案的制定：建立两个尺度的模拟模型，总规尺度的模型（BUDEM）将综合考虑多个方面对城市增长的约束条件，给出远景城市空间布局的各个情景，并基于模拟结果制定城市增长边界；控规尺度的模型（FEE-MAS）主要关注居民的居住区位、就业区位以及交通方式的选择行为，结合所生成的土地使用方式和容积率分布各异的城市形态对应的能源消耗和环境影响，识别一般规律，可以用于支持控规尺度规划方案的制定。
三、建立微观模拟模型，评估空间规划方案：这个方面开展两个方面的探索，其一为针对规划方案进行评估，分析是否有城市发展政策能够保证其实现，如果可以，则给出相应的政策参数；其二为针对北京市历次总规的空间布局方案进行评估，识别其在城市扩展中所起到的作用，并对其进行时空对比。
本文作为对在空间规划中采用微观模拟方法进行规划编制和评估支持的有益探索，开展了多个方面的研究工作，研究方法包括CA、MAS、空间分析、空间统计和人工智能等，研究对象包括总规和控规，有望提高我国规划支持系统领域的理论水平，改善规划实践中的量化分析能力。
This dissertation aims to introduce microsimulation into spatial plans to supporturban planning compilation and evaluation. The spatial plan as an effective measure formanaging urban growth attracts extensive attentions from aspects of geographicalinformation system (GIS), remote sensing (RS), as well as land use&transportationintegrated models. Urban systems as a type of complex adaptive system, however, arecomposed by numerous parcels in the physical space and urban residents in the socialspace. The bottom-up microsimulation approaches, such as cellular automata (CA) andmulti-agent system (MAS), have their opportunities in analyzing and simulating spatialplans. This dissertation will apply GIS, CA, and MAS based microsimulationtechniques to develop microsimulation models for supporting urban spatial plancompilation and evaluation as follows.
Firstly, we proposed a data synthesis approach for urban microsimulation models.We disaggregate individual micro data using aggregate data, small-scale surveys andempirical researches to feed microsimulation models to tackle the current data sparsecondition in China.
Secondly, we developed two microsimulation models for supporting spatial plancompilation. The first model, BUDEM, is developed based on CA incorporating fourtypes of constraints to simulate future urban growth. The simulation results can beadopted as spatial plan alternatives as well as urban growth boundaries (UGB). Thesecond model, FEE-MAS, is for calculating commuting energy consumption andenvironment impact for urban form in the inner city level. The quantitative relationshipsamong them can then be identified accordingly using a global sensitivity analysisapproach, thus supporting the compilation and evaluation of spatial plan.
Thirdly, we conducted two researches for evaluating spatial plan alternatives usingthe BUDEM model. One, spatial plan can be evaluated as possible or impossible interms of the availability of urban policies, which is the reversed process of conventionalurban growth scenario analysis. Two, spatial plan implementation effectiveness isspatiotemporally evaluated for five master plans in Beijing.
In sum, several key solutions are proposed in this thesis for introducingmicrosimulation into spatial plan with empirical researches in the hypothetical spaceand Beijing, respectively. The approaches included in this dissertation range from GIS,RS, CA, MAS, spatial analysis, and artificial intelligence, and the spatial plans coverboth master plans and detail plans. Therefore, this dissertation is promising forpromoting planning support techniques for spatial plans in China.
一、探索为微观模拟模型提供数据条件的技术方法，在目前的数据稀缺环境下，综合考虑已有的统计数据、小规模典型调查数据，以及常识性知识，反演微观样本，作为微观模拟模型的数据支撑。
二、建立微观模拟模型，支持空间规划方案的制定：建立两个尺度的模拟模型，总规尺度的模型（BUDEM）将综合考虑多个方面对城市增长的约束条件，给出远景城市空间布局的各个情景，并基于模拟结果制定城市增长边界；控规尺度的模型（FEE-MAS）主要关注居民的居住区位、就业区位以及交通方式的选择行为，结合所生成的土地使用方式和容积率分布各异的城市形态对应的能源消耗和环境影响，识别一般规律，可以用于支持控规尺度规划方案的制定。
三、建立微观模拟模型，评估空间规划方案：这个方面开展两个方面的探索，其一为针对规划方案进行评估，分析是否有城市发展政策能够保证其实现，如果可以，则给出相应的政策参数；其二为针对北京市历次总规的空间布局方案进行评估，识别其在城市扩展中所起到的作用，并对其进行时空对比。
本文作为对在空间规划中采用微观模拟方法进行规划编制和评估支持的有益探索，开展了多个方面的研究工作，研究方法包括CA、MAS、空间分析、空间统计和人工智能等，研究对象包括总规和控规，有望提高我国规划支持系统领域的理论水平，改善规划实践中的量化分析能力。
This dissertation aims to introduce microsimulation into spatial plans to supporturban planning compilation and evaluation. The spatial plan as an effective measure formanaging urban growth attracts extensive attentions from aspects of geographicalinformation system (GIS), remote sensing (RS), as well as land use&transportationintegrated models. Urban systems as a type of complex adaptive system, however, arecomposed by numerous parcels in the physical space and urban residents in the socialspace. The bottom-up microsimulation approaches, such as cellular automata (CA) andmulti-agent system (MAS), have their opportunities in analyzing and simulating spatialplans. This dissertation will apply GIS, CA, and MAS based microsimulationtechniques to develop microsimulation models for supporting urban spatial plancompilation and evaluation as follows.
Firstly, we proposed a data synthesis approach for urban microsimulation models.We disaggregate individual micro data using aggregate data, small-scale surveys andempirical researches to feed microsimulation models to tackle the current data sparsecondition in China.
Secondly, we developed two microsimulation models for supporting spatial plancompilation. The first model, BUDEM, is developed based on CA incorporating fourtypes of constraints to simulate future urban growth. The simulation results can beadopted as spatial plan alternatives as well as urban growth boundaries (UGB). Thesecond model, FEE-MAS, is for calculating commuting energy consumption andenvironment impact for urban form in the inner city level. The quantitative relationshipsamong them can then be identified accordingly using a global sensitivity analysisapproach, thus supporting the compilation and evaluation of spatial plan.
Thirdly, we conducted two researches for evaluating spatial plan alternatives usingthe BUDEM model. One, spatial plan can be evaluated as possible or impossible interms of the availability of urban policies, which is the reversed process of conventionalurban growth scenario analysis. Two, spatial plan implementation effectiveness isspatiotemporally evaluated for five master plans in Beijing.
In sum, several key solutions are proposed in this thesis for introducingmicrosimulation into spatial plan with empirical researches in the hypothetical spaceand Beijing, respectively. The approaches included in this dissertation range from GIS,RS, CA, MAS, spatial analysis, and artificial intelligence, and the spatial plans coverboth master plans and detail plans. Therefore, this dissertation is promising forpromoting planning support techniques for spatial plans in China.
引文
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