二连浩特口岸原木的运输方式选择模型
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摘要
随着我国经济的不断发展,人们对于木材的需求逐年增长,供需缺口不断加大。为满足人们的用材需求,我国加大了进口木材的力度。近年来,俄罗斯已成为我国进口原木最多的国家,二连浩特口岸也成为中俄贸易的第四大陆路口岸。大量的中小型木材批发商聚集在该口岸采购原木,并运回加工厂销售。由于中俄火车车皮装载能力的不同,在换载运输工具时,每车皮都会产生部分剩余木材无法装载。对于这些剩余木材通常有贮存在口岸贮木场、在口岸低价销售和单独运回三种处理方式。而公路运输通常是包车方式,虽不会直接产生剩余木材,但如果上次采购结束时有剩余木材贮存在口岸贮木场,则仍需进行处理。
目前关于木材运输的研究较少,尤其是对由于运输工具的装载能力限制导致的剩余木材处理研究则更少。本文以木材批发商在原木采购中遇到的运输方式和剩余处理方式的选择为核心内容展开研究。故本文的研究不仅具有一定的学术价值,也可以为木材批发商的采购决策提供参考和借鉴。
首先,从木材运输的特点和木材批发商的原木采购运输过程入手,对影响他们原木采购运输决策的重要因素,包括采购量、运输方式、剩余处理、延迟和库存,进行了深入地分析。
然后,运用动态规划,在满足客户需求的基础上,以木材批发商一段时间的采购总成本最小化为目标,建立了木材的运输方式选择模型。并且,以从二连浩特口岸采购原木的一家小型木材批发商为例,进行了实例验证。从而得知木材批发商仅凭经验做出判断的方式并不科学,应从长远的角度,结合上次采购和下次采购以及各因素间的相关影响和制约,才可获得一段时间内的最佳收益及每次采购的最佳运输方式和剩余木材处理方式。
最后,对于剩余木材的三种处理方式分别提出了进一步的改进建议。贮存在口岸时,应做好遮蔽和安保措施;低价销售时,可以选择最适合的口岸加工厂或者直接卖给其他的木材批发商;运回目的地时,视经营规模而定,先采取合作联盟关系,实施共同运输,扩大规模后可主动避免剩余的出现。
With the development of our country, the demand of timber has increased, the gap between supply and demand is increased ceaselessly. In order to meet people's material needs, our country has increased imports of timber. In recent years, most of the imported logs come from Russia, and Erenhot port has become the fourth road port trade between China and Russia. A large number of small and medium timber wholesalers gather in the port, purchase logs, and then ship back to their own wood plant. For the difference of trains' loading capacity, in the process of transferring vehicles, it is likely to cause surplus. The wholesalers can store the surplus timber in the timberyard of port, sale in port at low price, or ship back. While, road transportation is usually chartered and there is no direct surplus logs. But if the surplus in last purchasing was stored in port, there will be surplus still.
So far, the study on the transportation of timber is few, especially the surplus due to the limitation of vehicles' loading capacity. In this paper, we study on the mode of transportation and the handling of the surplus in the procurement of logs for timber wholesalers. It not only has academic value, but also can provide some reference for timber wholesalers.
This paper firstly analyzes the characteristics of logs in transportation, the process of purchasing timber and the factors influenced wholesalers’decision, include the amount of purchase, the mode of transportation, the handling of surplus, delay and stock.
Secondly, in order to choose the best mode of transportation, we establish a model of dynamic programming. In the model, we want to satisfy customers' needs first, then try to make the total purchasing costs minimized. Next, a timber wholesaler is taken as an example to verify the correctness of the model. The results show he should see the issue with a long-term sight and combine the purchasing decisions of the prior time and the next time with the impacts of each factor rather than decide by experience.
Finally, further suggestions for handling of the surplus are put forward. Good shelter and security measures are needed while storing in the port; sale to the most suitable wood plant in port or other timber wholesalers; according to the business scale, to build a cooperative alliance and transport back together, then expand the scale, to purchase the right wagons and avoid the surplus actively.
目前关于木材运输的研究较少,尤其是对由于运输工具的装载能力限制导致的剩余木材处理研究则更少。本文以木材批发商在原木采购中遇到的运输方式和剩余处理方式的选择为核心内容展开研究。故本文的研究不仅具有一定的学术价值,也可以为木材批发商的采购决策提供参考和借鉴。
首先,从木材运输的特点和木材批发商的原木采购运输过程入手,对影响他们原木采购运输决策的重要因素,包括采购量、运输方式、剩余处理、延迟和库存,进行了深入地分析。
然后,运用动态规划,在满足客户需求的基础上,以木材批发商一段时间的采购总成本最小化为目标,建立了木材的运输方式选择模型。并且,以从二连浩特口岸采购原木的一家小型木材批发商为例,进行了实例验证。从而得知木材批发商仅凭经验做出判断的方式并不科学,应从长远的角度,结合上次采购和下次采购以及各因素间的相关影响和制约,才可获得一段时间内的最佳收益及每次采购的最佳运输方式和剩余木材处理方式。
最后,对于剩余木材的三种处理方式分别提出了进一步的改进建议。贮存在口岸时,应做好遮蔽和安保措施;低价销售时,可以选择最适合的口岸加工厂或者直接卖给其他的木材批发商;运回目的地时,视经营规模而定,先采取合作联盟关系,实施共同运输,扩大规模后可主动避免剩余的出现。
With the development of our country, the demand of timber has increased, the gap between supply and demand is increased ceaselessly. In order to meet people's material needs, our country has increased imports of timber. In recent years, most of the imported logs come from Russia, and Erenhot port has become the fourth road port trade between China and Russia. A large number of small and medium timber wholesalers gather in the port, purchase logs, and then ship back to their own wood plant. For the difference of trains' loading capacity, in the process of transferring vehicles, it is likely to cause surplus. The wholesalers can store the surplus timber in the timberyard of port, sale in port at low price, or ship back. While, road transportation is usually chartered and there is no direct surplus logs. But if the surplus in last purchasing was stored in port, there will be surplus still.
So far, the study on the transportation of timber is few, especially the surplus due to the limitation of vehicles' loading capacity. In this paper, we study on the mode of transportation and the handling of the surplus in the procurement of logs for timber wholesalers. It not only has academic value, but also can provide some reference for timber wholesalers.
This paper firstly analyzes the characteristics of logs in transportation, the process of purchasing timber and the factors influenced wholesalers’decision, include the amount of purchase, the mode of transportation, the handling of surplus, delay and stock.
Secondly, in order to choose the best mode of transportation, we establish a model of dynamic programming. In the model, we want to satisfy customers' needs first, then try to make the total purchasing costs minimized. Next, a timber wholesaler is taken as an example to verify the correctness of the model. The results show he should see the issue with a long-term sight and combine the purchasing decisions of the prior time and the next time with the impacts of each factor rather than decide by experience.
Finally, further suggestions for handling of the surplus are put forward. Good shelter and security measures are needed while storing in the port; sale to the most suitable wood plant in port or other timber wholesalers; according to the business scale, to build a cooperative alliance and transport back together, then expand the scale, to purchase the right wagons and avoid the surplus actively.
引文
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