水库调度多目标决策与风险分析方法研究
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摘要
水电能源是优质清洁的可再生能源,加强水电能源的科学管理是建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会的重要战略措施,同时我国“十二五”规划发展纲要也将发展水电置于重要的地位。近年来,随着我国各大流域上梯级水电站水库群的大规模开发建设,开展水库调度风险管理工作就显得尤为重要,并且这也将成为各大流域综合管理的必然发展趋势。水电能源的开发和利用,是一个综合多学科多知识的复杂系统工程,涉及到径流预报、水库调度多目标决策以及风险分析等一系列问题,本文以水电站水库(群)为研究对象,分别从水库中长期径流预报、水库调度风险分析方法以及多目标风险决策等方面展开了系统深入的研究,研究成果对于完善水库调度的风险管理理论体系,提高水资源的整体利用效益,促进社会、经济、生态环境的可持续发展具有重要意义。全文取得的主要研究成果如下：
(1)水库调度风险分析方法研究。入库径流的随机性是影响水库调度过程的重要因素,以月径流系列为例,给出了几种入库径流的随机模拟方法；在总结常用的水库调度风险分析方法基础上,针对水库调度的实际特点,基于不确定性理论,建立了风险损失期望值模型、机会风险价值模型和风险事件测度极小化模型等水库调度风险分析模型,并结合模型的具体特点,给出了相应的求解方法。
(2)水库中长期径流递阶结构组合预报方法研究。中长期径流预报是水库制定中长期调度计划的重要依据,针对传统水库径流预报模型未能充分考虑单个预报模型的预报信息以及缺乏对各单一模型和预报结果的前期预处理,以预报精度和预报稳定性为评价指标,通过分步确定各单一模型的权重,建立了水电站水库径流预报的递阶结构组合模型；三峡水库的实例应用表明,所建递阶结构组合预报模型可为水电站水库入库径流提供多模型综合的预报信息。
(3)水电站水库预报发电调度随机模糊风险分析。分析了水电站水库优化调度的目的、目标与准则,结合递阶结构组合预报模型的预报结果,建立了水电站水库预报发电优化调度模型；同时结合预报误差可能对水库发电调度的影响,构建了水电站水库预报发电调度的随机模糊风险分析总体流程框架；三峡水电站水库的实例应用表明,随机模糊风险分析为水库调度管理决策者预防和规避风险提供一定的理论依据和参考价值。
(4)梯级水库联合调度多目标风险决策模型研究。梯级水库的联合调度涉及到多个部门的要求和调度目标,由于受众多不确定性因素的性影响,其调度决策过程是一个计及风险的多目标决策问题,在分析梯级水库系统的特点、多目标联合调度要求及调度过程中存在的主要风险因子的基础上,重点探讨入库径流的不确定性对梯级水库防洪、发电、航运的影响,建立了梯级水库联合调度的多目标风险决策模型；在对模型求解时,针对模型中的多目标问题及复杂约束,结合对入库径流的随机模拟,设计了耦合不确定模拟技术、遗传算法和妥协算法的混合智能算法进行求解；所建模型能事先对梯级水库的风险和效益进行比较分析。
(5)梯级水库联合调度综合风险评价。考虑防洪、发电、航运、供水、生态用水等多个调度目标,建立了梯级水库多目标决策运行指标体系,在此基础上,综合分析了多目标联合调度过程中可能存在的各类风险,构建了梯级水库联合调度综合风险评价指标体系以及多目标最小风险模型；采用支持向量机方法和遗传算法嵌套的方案评价方法,将含有随机变量的风险型多目标问题转化为基于综合风险值最小的方案优选问题,实现对众多非劣解集方案的优劣排序。
Hydropower is quality, clean, non-polluted and renewable energy. Strengthen the scientific management of hydropower is an important strategic choice to construct the resource-saving and environment-friendly society, also China's "twelfth five-year" plan outline also places hydropower in very important position. In recent years, with the large-scale development and construction of hydropower stations and cascade reservoirs in our each large river basin, the risk management of reservoir operation is becoming particularly significant and it will also become the inevitable development trend of large river basin integrated management. The development and utilization of hydropower is a comprehensive, multidisciplinary, widely acknowledged and complex systems engineering, which involves a series of problems such as runoff forecasting, multi-objective decision making and risk analysis etc. Selected the (cascade) reservoir as the research object, research achievements of the paper is acquired by respectively making systematically researching on mid-term and long-term flood forecasting of reservoir, the methods of risk analysis of reservoir operation and multi-objective risk decision making etc, which are of great significance on completing the theory of risk management system for reservoir operation, improving the comprehensive utilization efficiency of water resources, and promoting the sustainable development of society, economy and ecological environment. The main achievements in the whole paper are as follows:
(1) Research on risk analysis methods of reservoir operation. The randomness of inflow runoff is the important factors that affect reservoir operation, several stochastic simulation methods of inflow runoff is given in the paper by the example of monthly runoff series; Based on the summary of commonly used analysis risk methods of reservoir operation and uncertainty theory, the paper establishes several risk analysis modes of reservoir operation such as risk loss expectation mode, opportunity risk value model and minimization model of risk events measurement according to the practical characteristics of reservoir operation. Then combine with the practical feature of every model, the corresponding solving method is given.
(2) Research on hierarchical structure combination method for reservoir mid-term and long-term runoff forecasting. Mid-term and long-term runoff forecasting is the important basis of reservoir operation for the mid-term and long-term planning. In view of the traditional reservoir runoff forecasting models which fail to fully consider forecast information of a single forecasting model and are lack of pretreatment of a single model and prediction results, taking prediction accuracy and prediction stability as the evaluation index, it established the hierarchical structure combination model for hydropower station reservoir runoff forecasting by means of sub step to determine the weight of each single model; The case study of Three gorges reservoir shows that the established hierarchical structure combination forecasting model can provide multi-model integrated forecast information for the incoming runoff of hydropower station reservoir.
(3) Random fuzzy risk analysis on hydropower station forecasting generation operation. It analyzed the purposes, goals and principles of the hydropower station reservoir optimal operation, combined with forecast result of hierarchical structure combination forecasting model, and then established optimal forecasting generation operation model of hydropower station reservoir; Meanwhile, together with the influence that prediction errors possibly play on reservoir generation operation, it built the overall process framework of random fuzzy risk analysis on hydropower station reservoir forecasting generation operation; The case study of Three Gorges reservoir shows that random fuzzy risk analysis provides certain theoretical basis and reference value for reservoir operation management policy-makers to prevent and avoid risk.
(4) Research on multi-objective risk decision model for cascade reservoirs joint operation. The joint operation of cascaded hydroelectric reservoirs which is affected by numerous factors involves many departments'requirements and regulation goal, so the decision making process is a multi-objective decision problem concerned on risk management. On the basis of analyzing the features of cascaded reservoirs and the requirements of multi-objective joint operation and the main risk factors in course of the operation, this thesis mainly discussed the influences of the uncertainty of reservoir inflow on flood control, electricity generation and shipping, and established risk decision model for cascade reservoirs multi-objective joint operation; Aiming at the multi-objective problem and complex constraints in the model solution, designed a hybrid intelligent algorithm coupling uncertainty simulation technology, genetic algorithm and compromise algorithm combined with stochastic simulation of reservoir inflow. The established model was able to compare and analyze the risk and benefits of cascaded reservoirs.
(5) Research on integrated risk assessment of joint operation. Considering various regulation goals like flood control, electricity generation, shipping, water supply and ecological water, the multi-objective decision index system of cascaded reservoirs was established. On this basis, comprehensively analyzed various risk that existed in the multi-objective joint operation, set up integrated risk index system of multi-objective joint operation and multi-objective minimum risk model; Realizing ranking of numerous Pareto Optimal set by transforming risk type multi-objective problem contains random variable into scheme optimization problem based on minimum integrated risk by support vector machine and scheme evaluation nesting genetic algorithm.
(1)水库调度风险分析方法研究。入库径流的随机性是影响水库调度过程的重要因素,以月径流系列为例,给出了几种入库径流的随机模拟方法；在总结常用的水库调度风险分析方法基础上,针对水库调度的实际特点,基于不确定性理论,建立了风险损失期望值模型、机会风险价值模型和风险事件测度极小化模型等水库调度风险分析模型,并结合模型的具体特点,给出了相应的求解方法。
(2)水库中长期径流递阶结构组合预报方法研究。中长期径流预报是水库制定中长期调度计划的重要依据,针对传统水库径流预报模型未能充分考虑单个预报模型的预报信息以及缺乏对各单一模型和预报结果的前期预处理,以预报精度和预报稳定性为评价指标,通过分步确定各单一模型的权重,建立了水电站水库径流预报的递阶结构组合模型；三峡水库的实例应用表明,所建递阶结构组合预报模型可为水电站水库入库径流提供多模型综合的预报信息。
(3)水电站水库预报发电调度随机模糊风险分析。分析了水电站水库优化调度的目的、目标与准则,结合递阶结构组合预报模型的预报结果,建立了水电站水库预报发电优化调度模型；同时结合预报误差可能对水库发电调度的影响,构建了水电站水库预报发电调度的随机模糊风险分析总体流程框架；三峡水电站水库的实例应用表明,随机模糊风险分析为水库调度管理决策者预防和规避风险提供一定的理论依据和参考价值。
(4)梯级水库联合调度多目标风险决策模型研究。梯级水库的联合调度涉及到多个部门的要求和调度目标,由于受众多不确定性因素的性影响,其调度决策过程是一个计及风险的多目标决策问题,在分析梯级水库系统的特点、多目标联合调度要求及调度过程中存在的主要风险因子的基础上,重点探讨入库径流的不确定性对梯级水库防洪、发电、航运的影响,建立了梯级水库联合调度的多目标风险决策模型；在对模型求解时,针对模型中的多目标问题及复杂约束,结合对入库径流的随机模拟,设计了耦合不确定模拟技术、遗传算法和妥协算法的混合智能算法进行求解；所建模型能事先对梯级水库的风险和效益进行比较分析。
(5)梯级水库联合调度综合风险评价。考虑防洪、发电、航运、供水、生态用水等多个调度目标,建立了梯级水库多目标决策运行指标体系,在此基础上,综合分析了多目标联合调度过程中可能存在的各类风险,构建了梯级水库联合调度综合风险评价指标体系以及多目标最小风险模型；采用支持向量机方法和遗传算法嵌套的方案评价方法,将含有随机变量的风险型多目标问题转化为基于综合风险值最小的方案优选问题,实现对众多非劣解集方案的优劣排序。
Hydropower is quality, clean, non-polluted and renewable energy. Strengthen the scientific management of hydropower is an important strategic choice to construct the resource-saving and environment-friendly society, also China's "twelfth five-year" plan outline also places hydropower in very important position. In recent years, with the large-scale development and construction of hydropower stations and cascade reservoirs in our each large river basin, the risk management of reservoir operation is becoming particularly significant and it will also become the inevitable development trend of large river basin integrated management. The development and utilization of hydropower is a comprehensive, multidisciplinary, widely acknowledged and complex systems engineering, which involves a series of problems such as runoff forecasting, multi-objective decision making and risk analysis etc. Selected the (cascade) reservoir as the research object, research achievements of the paper is acquired by respectively making systematically researching on mid-term and long-term flood forecasting of reservoir, the methods of risk analysis of reservoir operation and multi-objective risk decision making etc, which are of great significance on completing the theory of risk management system for reservoir operation, improving the comprehensive utilization efficiency of water resources, and promoting the sustainable development of society, economy and ecological environment. The main achievements in the whole paper are as follows:
(1) Research on risk analysis methods of reservoir operation. The randomness of inflow runoff is the important factors that affect reservoir operation, several stochastic simulation methods of inflow runoff is given in the paper by the example of monthly runoff series; Based on the summary of commonly used analysis risk methods of reservoir operation and uncertainty theory, the paper establishes several risk analysis modes of reservoir operation such as risk loss expectation mode, opportunity risk value model and minimization model of risk events measurement according to the practical characteristics of reservoir operation. Then combine with the practical feature of every model, the corresponding solving method is given.
(2) Research on hierarchical structure combination method for reservoir mid-term and long-term runoff forecasting. Mid-term and long-term runoff forecasting is the important basis of reservoir operation for the mid-term and long-term planning. In view of the traditional reservoir runoff forecasting models which fail to fully consider forecast information of a single forecasting model and are lack of pretreatment of a single model and prediction results, taking prediction accuracy and prediction stability as the evaluation index, it established the hierarchical structure combination model for hydropower station reservoir runoff forecasting by means of sub step to determine the weight of each single model; The case study of Three gorges reservoir shows that the established hierarchical structure combination forecasting model can provide multi-model integrated forecast information for the incoming runoff of hydropower station reservoir.
(3) Random fuzzy risk analysis on hydropower station forecasting generation operation. It analyzed the purposes, goals and principles of the hydropower station reservoir optimal operation, combined with forecast result of hierarchical structure combination forecasting model, and then established optimal forecasting generation operation model of hydropower station reservoir; Meanwhile, together with the influence that prediction errors possibly play on reservoir generation operation, it built the overall process framework of random fuzzy risk analysis on hydropower station reservoir forecasting generation operation; The case study of Three Gorges reservoir shows that random fuzzy risk analysis provides certain theoretical basis and reference value for reservoir operation management policy-makers to prevent and avoid risk.
(4) Research on multi-objective risk decision model for cascade reservoirs joint operation. The joint operation of cascaded hydroelectric reservoirs which is affected by numerous factors involves many departments'requirements and regulation goal, so the decision making process is a multi-objective decision problem concerned on risk management. On the basis of analyzing the features of cascaded reservoirs and the requirements of multi-objective joint operation and the main risk factors in course of the operation, this thesis mainly discussed the influences of the uncertainty of reservoir inflow on flood control, electricity generation and shipping, and established risk decision model for cascade reservoirs multi-objective joint operation; Aiming at the multi-objective problem and complex constraints in the model solution, designed a hybrid intelligent algorithm coupling uncertainty simulation technology, genetic algorithm and compromise algorithm combined with stochastic simulation of reservoir inflow. The established model was able to compare and analyze the risk and benefits of cascaded reservoirs.
(5) Research on integrated risk assessment of joint operation. Considering various regulation goals like flood control, electricity generation, shipping, water supply and ecological water, the multi-objective decision index system of cascaded reservoirs was established. On this basis, comprehensively analyzed various risk that existed in the multi-objective joint operation, set up integrated risk index system of multi-objective joint operation and multi-objective minimum risk model; Realizing ranking of numerous Pareto Optimal set by transforming risk type multi-objective problem contains random variable into scheme optimization problem based on minimum integrated risk by support vector machine and scheme evaluation nesting genetic algorithm.
引文
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