区域创新系统知识溢出机制及溢出效应测度研究
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摘要
区域创新系统作为成功的经济组织形式之一,在当前经济社会发展中的作用日益突出,已经成为当代经济社会发展的一个重要方向,仅2009年我国就批准建立了十多个区域经济发展规划项目。如何保持区域创新系统可持续跨越式发展,其根本动力来自哪里呢?古典经济学中经济进步依赖外部资源而最终导致规模报酬递减的理论显然不合时宜,随着内生经济增长理论的发展,技术和人力资本,或者说知识,成为经济增长的发动机。由于知识的非排他性和非竞争性本质,既能促使拥有它的组织创新,也能溢出到其他组织并促使其创新,这些创新的技术知识又会溢出,从而形成不间断的组织间相互知识溢出,产生创新收益递增。换句话说,知识溢出促使收益递增进而促使区域经济持续发展。
然而尽管知识溢出对区域经济发展的作用已得到大家的共识,但知识溢出对区域经济增长作用的内在机理问题的研究理论缺乏说服力且体系不强,仍然没有弄清楚知识如何在区域内部和区域之间以及不同主体间溢出,也没有对这一过程进行模型化说明,建立知识溢出微观理论模型非常复杂和困难,且特定地理空间范围内的知识溢出机制仍然是一个亟待穿透的“黑箱”。因此,对知识溢出本质与知识溢出机制、溢出效应测度的深入研究,具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。
本文的主要目的就是通过区域创新系统知识溢出过程微观模型的构建以及宏观实证分析的验证来研究知识溢出的机制,从而对知识溢出促进区域经济发展的内在机理有更透彻的认识和理解。
本文首先对知识溢出相关研究文献进行了梳理,分析了有关知识溢出的国内外研究成果和研究方法,对知识溢出概念与内涵、知识溢出影响因素、知识溢出效应及其作用、知识溢出与经济增长的内在联系、知识溢出效应测度以及知识溢出机制方面分别进行了述评。
其次,以知识溢出涉及的相关理论演变为主线,从经济增长理论、累积因果理论、技术差距理论、空间扩散理论、社会网络分析理论、知识溢出测度方法等方面着手,理清这些理论与知识溢出之间相互关系及研究范式的转变,从而能更深刻理解知识溢出本质并为后续章节的研究提供理论支撑。
第三,从知识溢出的流动过程着手,将知识溢出划分为发生过程、传导过程和吸收过程,并基于系统动力学方法对各个过程分别建立动力学模型,探究知识溢出各影响因素间的相互因果关系。并将三个过程集成,从整体上把握众多因素对知识溢出行为的综合影响效果,并为后续章节的仿真分析奠定理论基础。
第四,围绕知识溢出的运行过程,本文系统研究了知识溢出机制,按照先后衔接关系具体可划分为发生机制、传导机制和吸收机制。知识溢出机制作为一种动态的系统,其整体功能的发挥主要是通过机制各构成要素的内在联系和作用方式在运行过程中表现出来,其构成要素包括运作环境、运作主体、运作客体、运作目的、运作手段等方面,重点考察知识溢出过程中各因素之间相互联系、相互作用的关系以及对知识溢出过程所产生的效应。
首先对知识溢出的发生过程进行分析,提炼出主要的影响因素,指出知识溢出的发生取决于知识主体溢出意愿和知识势差。通过建立完全信息和不完全信息条件下的博弈模型对溢出意愿进行分析,发现无论在何种信息条件下,提高溢出知识的产出弹性以及建立长期的合作关系有助于知识溢出的发生。另外,以知识溢出强度、溢出广度和溢出深度作为三维坐标构建了知识溢出场,藉此刻画系统内知识溢出发生的动态过程,从而阐释了知识溢出的发生机制。
其次,对知识溢出的传导过程进行了详细剖解,基于社会网络分析,构建了知识传导模型,重点考察社会网络结构(即网络中元组织的地理位置)、社会网络关系(即网络中元组织之间的关系层次)、社会网络节点特征(即网络的元组织中是否存在领导者)、外部政策等对知识传导过程和行为的影响,从而弄清和阐明了知识溢出传导机制。
最后,对知识溢出的吸收过程进行了深入分析,探讨了主体间知识交互行为的动机、交互基础,构建了交互模型,进而分析了主体对知识的吸收学习和累积过程,以及对系统整体知识状态演变的影响,从而理解和把握了知识溢出的吸收机制。
第五,基于知识生产函数构建空间Durbin计量模型,利用我国省级面板数据进行了实证分析,实证表明：空间知识溢出效应确实存在,知识溢出超越了行政区域的地理边界,溢出到邻近区域且与区域经济发展具有明显的正相关性；在三阶空间邻接矩阵下,知识溢出效应最显著；知识溢出具有空间局限性,但知识溢出效应并不完全随着空间邻接矩阵阶数的增大而严格递减,而是先增大后减小,知识溢出效应的发挥存在一个最优溢出距离。而后两点结论则从实证角度验证了前文面章节关于知识溢出发生条件的理论分析。
最后,本文总结了本项研究的主要成果,并对相关领域未来的研究热点问题进行了展望。
As a successful form of economic organization, regional innovation system is increasingly prominent and become an important direction in current economic and social development. In 2009, more than ten regional economic development planning projects were approved. What is the driving force to achieve sustainable and leap-forward development for regional innovation system? In classical economics, economic progress depends on external resources and eventually led to the decreasing returns to scale. Now this theory is clearly inappropriate. However, with the development of the theory of endogenous growth, the technology and human capital, or knowledge, become the engine of economic growth.
As nature of non-exclusive and non-competitive, Knowledge not only promote organizational innovation, but also spill over into other organizations and promote their innovations. And then, the knowledge of these innovations will overflow and form the continuous overflow of mutual knowledge among different organizations. That is to say, knowledge spillovers prompt increasing returns and sustainable growth.
Despite everyone achieve a consensus about the effect of knowledge spillover on regional economic development, but the study on inherent mechanism of how knowledge spillovers affect the regional economic growth is not convincing and the theory system is also not perfect. It is still not clear that how the knowledge spill over into intra-regional and inter-regional as well as different entities. Nor does it explain the modeling process of knowledge spillovers. On another side, it is very complex and difficult to construct the micro-level model of knowledge spillovers. Therefore, the mechanism of knowledge spillovers is still a "black box" which needs urgently to be penetrated. So it has important theoretical value and practical significance to study deeply on the nature, mechanism and effect of knowledge spillovers.
The main purpose of this article is to study on mechanism of knowledge spillovers through constructing micro-model of knowledge spillovers, as well as validation of empirical analysis. Therefore, we can understand deeply the internal mechanism of effect of knowledge spillovers on regional economic development.
In this thesis, Firstly, many literatures on fruit and method of knowledge spillover are compiled. Then, some reviews are given separately on concepts and contents of knowledge spillover, factors of affecting knowledge spillover, the role of knowledge spillovers, the inner relations between knowledge spillovers and economic growth, the measure of knowledge spillovers effect.
Secondly, in the perspective of the economic growth theory, the cumulative causation theory, the technology gap theory, spatial diffusion theory, social network analysis theory, knowledge spillover measurement method, etc., we sort out and understand the relations between knowledge spillover and these theories. Also, we can make clear how these theories about knowledge spillovers revolute. So that we can gain a deeper understanding of the nature of knowledge spillovers as well as providing theoretical support for the study in next chapters.
Thirdly, based on the flow process of knowledge spillovers, the process is dived into three parts:generation process, conduction process and absorption process. System dynamic model of each process is established respectively in order to explore the cause-effect relationship between various factors. Then, three processes will be integrated to grasp the combined effects of a number of factors on the knowledge spillovers. Also, it lays the foundation for the simulation analysis in subsequent chapters.
Fourthly, around the operating process, a systematic study on the knowledge spillover mechanism is made and divvied into threes parts:generating mechanism, conducting mechanism and absorbing mechanism. As a mobile system, the function of knowledge spillovers mechanism mainly reflects from the inner relationship and affects. It includes operating environment, operating objects, operating aim and operating channel etc. Especially, more attentions are paid to the relationship and effects among different-factors during the process of knowledge spillovers. The first, the process of knowledge spillovers is analyzed and many important factors are extracted. The generation of knowledge spillovers depends on the willingness and force of spillovers between different entities. Two game models are constructed respectively based on complete information and incomplete information. With comparative analysis, we found that it contributes to generation of knowledge spillovers to improve the output elasticity of knowledge spillover and establish long-term cooperative relationship. In addition to, taking knowledge spillover strength, breadth and depth as three-dimensional coordinates, a knowledge spillovers field is constructed to describe dynamic occurring process of knowledge spillovers, which explains the generating mechanism of knowledge spillovers. The second, the conducting process of knowledge spillovers is decomposed details. Then, based on social network structure, a conductive model is constructed to study how these factors such as the social network structure (ie, the location of element organizations in network), social network relationship (ie, the relationship level of the organizations), the features of social network nodes (ie, whether there is a leader in the element organizations), external policies for knowledge transfer processes and behavior to affect the process and behavior of knowledge conductive, which expounds the conducting mechanism of knowledge spillovers. The third, the absorbing process of knowledge spillovers is decomposed in details. Then based on the social network structure, the motivation and condition of knowledge interaction are analyzed. And then an interactive model is built in order to explore the process of accumulation and absorption for knowledge and study the effect on the evolution of knowledge state in system, which illustrates the absorbing mechanism of knowledge spillovers.
Fifthly, knowledge is dived into two parts:measured knowledge and unmeasured knowledge because the patents can't present all innovations. A spatial Durbin model is constructed based on C-D production function. Based on the panel data from provinces, the results show:The first, the effect of knowledge spillovers does exist and has a significant positive correlation with regional economic development. The knowledge goes beyond the geographical boundaries of administrative areas and spill into neighboring regions. The second, the effect of knowledge spillovers is most remarkable based on 3-order contiguity matrix. The third, the effect of knowledge spillovers does not strictly descend with the increasing of order of contiguity matrix, but increase firstly and descend later, which shows that there is an optimal distance for knowledge spillovers. Even more important, the last two results confirm that the theoretic-analysis about generation condition of knowledge spillovers is right.
Finally, the thesis summarizes the main results and many hot issues in related fields are put forward.
然而尽管知识溢出对区域经济发展的作用已得到大家的共识,但知识溢出对区域经济增长作用的内在机理问题的研究理论缺乏说服力且体系不强,仍然没有弄清楚知识如何在区域内部和区域之间以及不同主体间溢出,也没有对这一过程进行模型化说明,建立知识溢出微观理论模型非常复杂和困难,且特定地理空间范围内的知识溢出机制仍然是一个亟待穿透的“黑箱”。因此,对知识溢出本质与知识溢出机制、溢出效应测度的深入研究,具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。
本文的主要目的就是通过区域创新系统知识溢出过程微观模型的构建以及宏观实证分析的验证来研究知识溢出的机制,从而对知识溢出促进区域经济发展的内在机理有更透彻的认识和理解。
本文首先对知识溢出相关研究文献进行了梳理,分析了有关知识溢出的国内外研究成果和研究方法,对知识溢出概念与内涵、知识溢出影响因素、知识溢出效应及其作用、知识溢出与经济增长的内在联系、知识溢出效应测度以及知识溢出机制方面分别进行了述评。
其次,以知识溢出涉及的相关理论演变为主线,从经济增长理论、累积因果理论、技术差距理论、空间扩散理论、社会网络分析理论、知识溢出测度方法等方面着手,理清这些理论与知识溢出之间相互关系及研究范式的转变,从而能更深刻理解知识溢出本质并为后续章节的研究提供理论支撑。
第三,从知识溢出的流动过程着手,将知识溢出划分为发生过程、传导过程和吸收过程,并基于系统动力学方法对各个过程分别建立动力学模型,探究知识溢出各影响因素间的相互因果关系。并将三个过程集成,从整体上把握众多因素对知识溢出行为的综合影响效果,并为后续章节的仿真分析奠定理论基础。
第四,围绕知识溢出的运行过程,本文系统研究了知识溢出机制,按照先后衔接关系具体可划分为发生机制、传导机制和吸收机制。知识溢出机制作为一种动态的系统,其整体功能的发挥主要是通过机制各构成要素的内在联系和作用方式在运行过程中表现出来,其构成要素包括运作环境、运作主体、运作客体、运作目的、运作手段等方面,重点考察知识溢出过程中各因素之间相互联系、相互作用的关系以及对知识溢出过程所产生的效应。
首先对知识溢出的发生过程进行分析,提炼出主要的影响因素,指出知识溢出的发生取决于知识主体溢出意愿和知识势差。通过建立完全信息和不完全信息条件下的博弈模型对溢出意愿进行分析,发现无论在何种信息条件下,提高溢出知识的产出弹性以及建立长期的合作关系有助于知识溢出的发生。另外,以知识溢出强度、溢出广度和溢出深度作为三维坐标构建了知识溢出场,藉此刻画系统内知识溢出发生的动态过程,从而阐释了知识溢出的发生机制。
其次,对知识溢出的传导过程进行了详细剖解,基于社会网络分析,构建了知识传导模型,重点考察社会网络结构(即网络中元组织的地理位置)、社会网络关系(即网络中元组织之间的关系层次)、社会网络节点特征(即网络的元组织中是否存在领导者)、外部政策等对知识传导过程和行为的影响,从而弄清和阐明了知识溢出传导机制。
最后,对知识溢出的吸收过程进行了深入分析,探讨了主体间知识交互行为的动机、交互基础,构建了交互模型,进而分析了主体对知识的吸收学习和累积过程,以及对系统整体知识状态演变的影响,从而理解和把握了知识溢出的吸收机制。
第五,基于知识生产函数构建空间Durbin计量模型,利用我国省级面板数据进行了实证分析,实证表明：空间知识溢出效应确实存在,知识溢出超越了行政区域的地理边界,溢出到邻近区域且与区域经济发展具有明显的正相关性；在三阶空间邻接矩阵下,知识溢出效应最显著；知识溢出具有空间局限性,但知识溢出效应并不完全随着空间邻接矩阵阶数的增大而严格递减,而是先增大后减小,知识溢出效应的发挥存在一个最优溢出距离。而后两点结论则从实证角度验证了前文面章节关于知识溢出发生条件的理论分析。
最后,本文总结了本项研究的主要成果,并对相关领域未来的研究热点问题进行了展望。
As a successful form of economic organization, regional innovation system is increasingly prominent and become an important direction in current economic and social development. In 2009, more than ten regional economic development planning projects were approved. What is the driving force to achieve sustainable and leap-forward development for regional innovation system? In classical economics, economic progress depends on external resources and eventually led to the decreasing returns to scale. Now this theory is clearly inappropriate. However, with the development of the theory of endogenous growth, the technology and human capital, or knowledge, become the engine of economic growth.
As nature of non-exclusive and non-competitive, Knowledge not only promote organizational innovation, but also spill over into other organizations and promote their innovations. And then, the knowledge of these innovations will overflow and form the continuous overflow of mutual knowledge among different organizations. That is to say, knowledge spillovers prompt increasing returns and sustainable growth.
Despite everyone achieve a consensus about the effect of knowledge spillover on regional economic development, but the study on inherent mechanism of how knowledge spillovers affect the regional economic growth is not convincing and the theory system is also not perfect. It is still not clear that how the knowledge spill over into intra-regional and inter-regional as well as different entities. Nor does it explain the modeling process of knowledge spillovers. On another side, it is very complex and difficult to construct the micro-level model of knowledge spillovers. Therefore, the mechanism of knowledge spillovers is still a "black box" which needs urgently to be penetrated. So it has important theoretical value and practical significance to study deeply on the nature, mechanism and effect of knowledge spillovers.
The main purpose of this article is to study on mechanism of knowledge spillovers through constructing micro-model of knowledge spillovers, as well as validation of empirical analysis. Therefore, we can understand deeply the internal mechanism of effect of knowledge spillovers on regional economic development.
In this thesis, Firstly, many literatures on fruit and method of knowledge spillover are compiled. Then, some reviews are given separately on concepts and contents of knowledge spillover, factors of affecting knowledge spillover, the role of knowledge spillovers, the inner relations between knowledge spillovers and economic growth, the measure of knowledge spillovers effect.
Secondly, in the perspective of the economic growth theory, the cumulative causation theory, the technology gap theory, spatial diffusion theory, social network analysis theory, knowledge spillover measurement method, etc., we sort out and understand the relations between knowledge spillover and these theories. Also, we can make clear how these theories about knowledge spillovers revolute. So that we can gain a deeper understanding of the nature of knowledge spillovers as well as providing theoretical support for the study in next chapters.
Thirdly, based on the flow process of knowledge spillovers, the process is dived into three parts:generation process, conduction process and absorption process. System dynamic model of each process is established respectively in order to explore the cause-effect relationship between various factors. Then, three processes will be integrated to grasp the combined effects of a number of factors on the knowledge spillovers. Also, it lays the foundation for the simulation analysis in subsequent chapters.
Fourthly, around the operating process, a systematic study on the knowledge spillover mechanism is made and divvied into threes parts:generating mechanism, conducting mechanism and absorbing mechanism. As a mobile system, the function of knowledge spillovers mechanism mainly reflects from the inner relationship and affects. It includes operating environment, operating objects, operating aim and operating channel etc. Especially, more attentions are paid to the relationship and effects among different-factors during the process of knowledge spillovers. The first, the process of knowledge spillovers is analyzed and many important factors are extracted. The generation of knowledge spillovers depends on the willingness and force of spillovers between different entities. Two game models are constructed respectively based on complete information and incomplete information. With comparative analysis, we found that it contributes to generation of knowledge spillovers to improve the output elasticity of knowledge spillover and establish long-term cooperative relationship. In addition to, taking knowledge spillover strength, breadth and depth as three-dimensional coordinates, a knowledge spillovers field is constructed to describe dynamic occurring process of knowledge spillovers, which explains the generating mechanism of knowledge spillovers. The second, the conducting process of knowledge spillovers is decomposed details. Then, based on social network structure, a conductive model is constructed to study how these factors such as the social network structure (ie, the location of element organizations in network), social network relationship (ie, the relationship level of the organizations), the features of social network nodes (ie, whether there is a leader in the element organizations), external policies for knowledge transfer processes and behavior to affect the process and behavior of knowledge conductive, which expounds the conducting mechanism of knowledge spillovers. The third, the absorbing process of knowledge spillovers is decomposed in details. Then based on the social network structure, the motivation and condition of knowledge interaction are analyzed. And then an interactive model is built in order to explore the process of accumulation and absorption for knowledge and study the effect on the evolution of knowledge state in system, which illustrates the absorbing mechanism of knowledge spillovers.
Fifthly, knowledge is dived into two parts:measured knowledge and unmeasured knowledge because the patents can't present all innovations. A spatial Durbin model is constructed based on C-D production function. Based on the panel data from provinces, the results show:The first, the effect of knowledge spillovers does exist and has a significant positive correlation with regional economic development. The knowledge goes beyond the geographical boundaries of administrative areas and spill into neighboring regions. The second, the effect of knowledge spillovers is most remarkable based on 3-order contiguity matrix. The third, the effect of knowledge spillovers does not strictly descend with the increasing of order of contiguity matrix, but increase firstly and descend later, which shows that there is an optimal distance for knowledge spillovers. Even more important, the last two results confirm that the theoretic-analysis about generation condition of knowledge spillovers is right.
Finally, the thesis summarizes the main results and many hot issues in related fields are put forward.
引文
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