滨海缺水城市水资源优化利用研究
|
摘要
沿海地区是我国人口最多、经济最发达的地区，是我国对外开放的前沿和窗口。由于经济的持续发展和人民生活水平的提高，对水资源的需求量越来越大，对水质的要求越来越高，而水资源的严重污染，使本来紧张的水资源的供需矛盾更加尖锐化。因此，对滨海城市的水资源优化利用的研究具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。
本文以青岛市为研究对象，将青岛市辖区划分为9个计算单元，在分析各个计算单元水资源利用现状的基础上，探讨了引起水资源紧缺的主要因素，进行了水资源需求预测、合理配置和投入产出评价方面的研究，主要得到以下成果：
1、青岛市当地水资源开发潜力有限，城市用水挤占农业用水的水量不断加大，枯水年农业用水难以保障；另一方面随着全市用水量的增长，污水排放量不断增加，加大了水环境污染风险。由于青岛市各计算单元水资源分割管理，难以做到对多水源的统一规划、科学调度、合理配置和有效保护，影响了资源的互济互配，降低了水的利用率。要提高青岛市辖区的水资源利用效率和满足各用户的水资源需求，必须加大计算单元之间的水资源合理配置，加大回用中水、雨水和淡化海水的利用力度。
2、通过对需水预测方法及影响因素的分析，修正了青岛市人口增长预测的Logistic增长模型、工业发展预测的GM（1，1）模型；根据农业发展现状及未来发展趋势，确定了农业发展规划指标；根据用水定额法，分别预测生活、工业和农业用水量；同时分别预测了河道内和河道外生态需水量。在推荐方案（即最优化方案）条件下，青岛市2010年生活、工业、农业（P=75%）和生态需水量分别为20060.62×10~4m~3、4717094.00×10~4m~3、211490.30×10~4m~3和9755.00×10~4m~3；2020年生活、工业、农业（P=75%）和生态需水量分别为28809.24×10~4m~3、34765714.00×10~4m~3、205272.80×10~4m~3和12430.00×10~4m~3；2030年生活、工业、农业（P=75%）和生态需水量分别为38290.56×10~4m~3、428466623.00×10~4m~3、199181.20×10~4m~3、15175.00×10~4m~3。将生活、工业、农业和生态进行分类预测和模型系数修正，提高了预测结果的精度。分析结果显示，工业用水量增长迅速，是青岛市中长期发展中的用水大户；生活用水和生态用水呈平稳增长趋势；而农业用水将会随着工业化进程呈现递减趋势。
3、分析了青岛市水资源优化利用的途径，通过对地表水、地下水、中水、雨水、客水和淡化海水等供水水源及生活、工业、农业和生态等用户用水优先级的确定，利用水资源系统分析的方法，修正了青岛市水资源优化利用数学模型及相关参数。研究得知，青岛市各计算单元的用水经济效益在不断增大：2010年，平度的用水经济效益最大，崂山最小；2020年和2030年，市内四区的用水效益均最大，效益最小的计算单元分别是崂山和莱西。社会效益主要是指各计算单元的缺水程度，通过提高污水回用系数、增加雨水收集措施、增强海水利用力度，并结合客水调剂，青岛市各计算单元在3个水平年的水资源供给都能满足社会经济发展对水资源的需求。环境效益在不断增大：2010年，平度的用水环境效益最大，崂山最小；2020年和2030年，市内四区的用水环境效益均最大，环境效益最小的计算单元分别是崂山和黄岛。
4、从水资源-生态环境-社会经济复合系统的角度，建立了包含生活、工业、农业和生态4个部门的青岛市水资源利用投入产出模型，分析青岛市的用水效率和用水效益，弥补了青岛市在该方面的欠缺。综合分析用水效率和用水效益，2010年的高用水部门为市内四区的工业部门，崂山的工业和农业部门，城阳的工业和农业部门，黄岛的工业部门，胶州、胶南、即墨、平度和莱西的农业部门；潜在高用水部门为生态用水部门。2020年的高用水部门为市内四区、崂山、城阳、黄岛的工业部门，即墨的工业和农业部门，胶州、胶南、平度和莱西的农业部门；潜在高用水部门为生态用水部门。2030年的高用水部门为市内四区、崂山、城阳、黄岛的工业部门，胶州、胶南、即墨和莱西的工业和农业部门，平度的农业部门；潜在高用水部门为生态用水部门。
Coastal area, with the most population and most developed economy,is the front and center to the outside world. Because of the sustainabledevelopment of economy and the remarkable improvement of people's livingstandard，the quantity demanded of water resource is much bigger and thewater quality demanded is much higher. But severe water pollution makesthe contradiction between supply and demand of water resource much sharper.So there is great theoretical significance and utility value to study theoptimum usage of water resource in coastal cities.
In this thesis, Qingdao city as the object of study is divided intonine units. Through the analysis of each unit in current water resourceusing, the major factors causing water shortage are discussed, the studyof water demand forecast, rational allocation and input-output evaluationare conducted, and the main research achievements are as follows.
1. On one hand, the potential of water resource development in Qingdaocity is still limited and the municipal water crowded out much more thanagricultural water, which makes it’s hard to safeguard the water foragricultural use in dry season. On the other hand, with the growing waterconsumption and waste water discharge, the risk of water environmentpollution is also increasing. Because of the water resource segmentingmanagement for each unit in Qingdao city, it’s hard to unified planning,scientific controlling, rational disposing and effective protecting the multi-source water and consequently influencing the water resourceallocation and lowers the water utilizing rate. To improve the waterresource utilization rate and satisfy the customer’s requirement inQingdao city, it must increase the rational allocation of water resourcein each unit and also increasing the utilization rate of recycled water,rainwater and desalinated seawater.
2. Over the analysis of forecasting methods and influencing factorsfor water requirement, the Logistic model for forecasting populationgrowth in Qingdao and GM (1,1) model for forecasting industrialdevelopment are revised. According to the current development and furtherdevelopment tendency, the agricultural development planning target isconfirmed. On the basis of water consuming quota, the water demanded forlife, industry and agriculture is forecasted. Meanwhile, the ecologicalwater requirement is forecasted within and without the river way. Underthe recommended proposal which is also the optimized one, the waterrequirement of Qingdao city in2010is200606.20thousand m~3for life,47170940.00thousand m~3for industry,2114903.00thousand m~3foragriculture (P=75%) and97550.00thousand m~3for ecology. In2020it is288092.40thousand m~3for life,347657140.00thousand m~3for industry,2052728.00thousand m~3for agriculture (P=75%) and124300.00thousand m~3for ecology, and in2030it is382905.60thousand m~3,4284666230.00thousand m~3,1991812.00thousand m~3and151750.00thousand m~3correspondingly. Through the classification and prediction of life,industry, agriculture and ecology, and amendment of model coefficients,the accuracy of prediction is increased. The analysis shows that industrywhich is the major water consumption client in Qingdao’s mid-term andlong-term development programs grows fast in water consumption. The waterconsumption for life and ecology grows steadily and to the contrary, thewater consumption for agriculture will declined.
3. The ways of water resource optimum usage in Qingdao city areanalysed in this thesis. Through the confirmation of water supply suchas surface water, underground water, recycled water, rainwater, foreignwater and desalinated seawater, and the priority level of waterconsumption clients including life, industry, agriculture and ecology,the Qingdao city water resource optimum usage mathematical model andrelevant parameter are revised. The research reveals that the economicbenefit of water consumption in each unit is growing fast. In2010, theeconomic benefit of Pingdu county-level city is the largest and Laoshandistrict is the smallest. In2020and2030, it’s predicted that theeconomic benefit of four districts in urban area which includes Shinandistrict, Shibei district, Sifang district and Licang district will bethe largest and to the contrary, Laoshan district and Laixi county-levelcity will be the smallest. Social benefit refers to water shortage in eachunit. By improving waste water recycling ratio, increasing the methodsof rainwater collecting, enhancing seawater desalinating, and combiningforeign water allocation, the water supply will satisfy the social andeconomic development in each unit in three target year. Environmentalbenefit is also increasing. In2010, the environmental benefit of waterconsumption in Pingdu county-level city is the largest, Laoshan districtis the smallest. In2020and2030, four districts in urban area will bethe largest, Laoshan district and Huangdao district will be the smallest.
4. From the angle of multiplexed system containing water resource,ecological environment and social economy, Qingdao water resourceconsumption input-output model which includes life, industry,agriculture and economy is established, the water consumption efficiencyand benefit are analysed, and the gap in this field of Qingdao city ismade up. In2010, the industrial sectors of four districts in urban area,the industrial and agricultural sectors of Laoshan district and Chengyang district, the industrial sectors of Huangdao district, the agriculturalsectors of Jiaozhou county-level city, Jiaonan county-level city, Jimocounty-level city, Pingdu county-level city and Laixi county-level cityare the largest water consumption clients, and the ecological sectors arepotential large water consumption clients. In2020, the largest waterconsumption clients are the industrial sectors of four districts in urbanarea, Laoshan district, Chengyang district and Huangdao district, theindustrial and agricultural sectors of Jimo county-level city, theagricultural sectors of Jiaozhou county-level city, Jiaonan county-levelcity, Pingdu and Laixi county-level city, and the ecological sectors arepotential large water consumption clients. In2030, the industrialsectors of four districts in urban area, Laoshan district, Chengyangdistrict, Huangdao district, the industrial and agricultural sectors ofJiaozhou county-level city, Jiaonan county-level city, Jimo county-levelcity and Laixi county-level city, agricultural sectors of Pingducounty-level city are the largest water consumption clients, and stillthe ecological sectors are potential large water consumption clients.
本文以青岛市为研究对象，将青岛市辖区划分为9个计算单元，在分析各个计算单元水资源利用现状的基础上，探讨了引起水资源紧缺的主要因素，进行了水资源需求预测、合理配置和投入产出评价方面的研究，主要得到以下成果：
1、青岛市当地水资源开发潜力有限，城市用水挤占农业用水的水量不断加大，枯水年农业用水难以保障；另一方面随着全市用水量的增长，污水排放量不断增加，加大了水环境污染风险。由于青岛市各计算单元水资源分割管理，难以做到对多水源的统一规划、科学调度、合理配置和有效保护，影响了资源的互济互配，降低了水的利用率。要提高青岛市辖区的水资源利用效率和满足各用户的水资源需求，必须加大计算单元之间的水资源合理配置，加大回用中水、雨水和淡化海水的利用力度。
2、通过对需水预测方法及影响因素的分析，修正了青岛市人口增长预测的Logistic增长模型、工业发展预测的GM（1，1）模型；根据农业发展现状及未来发展趋势，确定了农业发展规划指标；根据用水定额法，分别预测生活、工业和农业用水量；同时分别预测了河道内和河道外生态需水量。在推荐方案（即最优化方案）条件下，青岛市2010年生活、工业、农业（P=75%）和生态需水量分别为20060.62×10~4m~3、4717094.00×10~4m~3、211490.30×10~4m~3和9755.00×10~4m~3；2020年生活、工业、农业（P=75%）和生态需水量分别为28809.24×10~4m~3、34765714.00×10~4m~3、205272.80×10~4m~3和12430.00×10~4m~3；2030年生活、工业、农业（P=75%）和生态需水量分别为38290.56×10~4m~3、428466623.00×10~4m~3、199181.20×10~4m~3、15175.00×10~4m~3。将生活、工业、农业和生态进行分类预测和模型系数修正，提高了预测结果的精度。分析结果显示，工业用水量增长迅速，是青岛市中长期发展中的用水大户；生活用水和生态用水呈平稳增长趋势；而农业用水将会随着工业化进程呈现递减趋势。
3、分析了青岛市水资源优化利用的途径，通过对地表水、地下水、中水、雨水、客水和淡化海水等供水水源及生活、工业、农业和生态等用户用水优先级的确定，利用水资源系统分析的方法，修正了青岛市水资源优化利用数学模型及相关参数。研究得知，青岛市各计算单元的用水经济效益在不断增大：2010年，平度的用水经济效益最大，崂山最小；2020年和2030年，市内四区的用水效益均最大，效益最小的计算单元分别是崂山和莱西。社会效益主要是指各计算单元的缺水程度，通过提高污水回用系数、增加雨水收集措施、增强海水利用力度，并结合客水调剂，青岛市各计算单元在3个水平年的水资源供给都能满足社会经济发展对水资源的需求。环境效益在不断增大：2010年，平度的用水环境效益最大，崂山最小；2020年和2030年，市内四区的用水环境效益均最大，环境效益最小的计算单元分别是崂山和黄岛。
4、从水资源-生态环境-社会经济复合系统的角度，建立了包含生活、工业、农业和生态4个部门的青岛市水资源利用投入产出模型，分析青岛市的用水效率和用水效益，弥补了青岛市在该方面的欠缺。综合分析用水效率和用水效益，2010年的高用水部门为市内四区的工业部门，崂山的工业和农业部门，城阳的工业和农业部门，黄岛的工业部门，胶州、胶南、即墨、平度和莱西的农业部门；潜在高用水部门为生态用水部门。2020年的高用水部门为市内四区、崂山、城阳、黄岛的工业部门，即墨的工业和农业部门，胶州、胶南、平度和莱西的农业部门；潜在高用水部门为生态用水部门。2030年的高用水部门为市内四区、崂山、城阳、黄岛的工业部门，胶州、胶南、即墨和莱西的工业和农业部门，平度的农业部门；潜在高用水部门为生态用水部门。
Coastal area, with the most population and most developed economy,is the front and center to the outside world. Because of the sustainabledevelopment of economy and the remarkable improvement of people's livingstandard，the quantity demanded of water resource is much bigger and thewater quality demanded is much higher. But severe water pollution makesthe contradiction between supply and demand of water resource much sharper.So there is great theoretical significance and utility value to study theoptimum usage of water resource in coastal cities.
In this thesis, Qingdao city as the object of study is divided intonine units. Through the analysis of each unit in current water resourceusing, the major factors causing water shortage are discussed, the studyof water demand forecast, rational allocation and input-output evaluationare conducted, and the main research achievements are as follows.
1. On one hand, the potential of water resource development in Qingdaocity is still limited and the municipal water crowded out much more thanagricultural water, which makes it’s hard to safeguard the water foragricultural use in dry season. On the other hand, with the growing waterconsumption and waste water discharge, the risk of water environmentpollution is also increasing. Because of the water resource segmentingmanagement for each unit in Qingdao city, it’s hard to unified planning,scientific controlling, rational disposing and effective protecting the multi-source water and consequently influencing the water resourceallocation and lowers the water utilizing rate. To improve the waterresource utilization rate and satisfy the customer’s requirement inQingdao city, it must increase the rational allocation of water resourcein each unit and also increasing the utilization rate of recycled water,rainwater and desalinated seawater.
2. Over the analysis of forecasting methods and influencing factorsfor water requirement, the Logistic model for forecasting populationgrowth in Qingdao and GM (1,1) model for forecasting industrialdevelopment are revised. According to the current development and furtherdevelopment tendency, the agricultural development planning target isconfirmed. On the basis of water consuming quota, the water demanded forlife, industry and agriculture is forecasted. Meanwhile, the ecologicalwater requirement is forecasted within and without the river way. Underthe recommended proposal which is also the optimized one, the waterrequirement of Qingdao city in2010is200606.20thousand m~3for life,47170940.00thousand m~3for industry,2114903.00thousand m~3foragriculture (P=75%) and97550.00thousand m~3for ecology. In2020it is288092.40thousand m~3for life,347657140.00thousand m~3for industry,2052728.00thousand m~3for agriculture (P=75%) and124300.00thousand m~3for ecology, and in2030it is382905.60thousand m~3,4284666230.00thousand m~3,1991812.00thousand m~3and151750.00thousand m~3correspondingly. Through the classification and prediction of life,industry, agriculture and ecology, and amendment of model coefficients,the accuracy of prediction is increased. The analysis shows that industrywhich is the major water consumption client in Qingdao’s mid-term andlong-term development programs grows fast in water consumption. The waterconsumption for life and ecology grows steadily and to the contrary, thewater consumption for agriculture will declined.
3. The ways of water resource optimum usage in Qingdao city areanalysed in this thesis. Through the confirmation of water supply suchas surface water, underground water, recycled water, rainwater, foreignwater and desalinated seawater, and the priority level of waterconsumption clients including life, industry, agriculture and ecology,the Qingdao city water resource optimum usage mathematical model andrelevant parameter are revised. The research reveals that the economicbenefit of water consumption in each unit is growing fast. In2010, theeconomic benefit of Pingdu county-level city is the largest and Laoshandistrict is the smallest. In2020and2030, it’s predicted that theeconomic benefit of four districts in urban area which includes Shinandistrict, Shibei district, Sifang district and Licang district will bethe largest and to the contrary, Laoshan district and Laixi county-levelcity will be the smallest. Social benefit refers to water shortage in eachunit. By improving waste water recycling ratio, increasing the methodsof rainwater collecting, enhancing seawater desalinating, and combiningforeign water allocation, the water supply will satisfy the social andeconomic development in each unit in three target year. Environmentalbenefit is also increasing. In2010, the environmental benefit of waterconsumption in Pingdu county-level city is the largest, Laoshan districtis the smallest. In2020and2030, four districts in urban area will bethe largest, Laoshan district and Huangdao district will be the smallest.
4. From the angle of multiplexed system containing water resource,ecological environment and social economy, Qingdao water resourceconsumption input-output model which includes life, industry,agriculture and economy is established, the water consumption efficiencyand benefit are analysed, and the gap in this field of Qingdao city ismade up. In2010, the industrial sectors of four districts in urban area,the industrial and agricultural sectors of Laoshan district and Chengyang district, the industrial sectors of Huangdao district, the agriculturalsectors of Jiaozhou county-level city, Jiaonan county-level city, Jimocounty-level city, Pingdu county-level city and Laixi county-level cityare the largest water consumption clients, and the ecological sectors arepotential large water consumption clients. In2020, the largest waterconsumption clients are the industrial sectors of four districts in urbanarea, Laoshan district, Chengyang district and Huangdao district, theindustrial and agricultural sectors of Jimo county-level city, theagricultural sectors of Jiaozhou county-level city, Jiaonan county-levelcity, Pingdu and Laixi county-level city, and the ecological sectors arepotential large water consumption clients. In2030, the industrialsectors of four districts in urban area, Laoshan district, Chengyangdistrict, Huangdao district, the industrial and agricultural sectors ofJiaozhou county-level city, Jiaonan county-level city, Jimo county-levelcity and Laixi county-level city, agricultural sectors of Pingducounty-level city are the largest water consumption clients, and stillthe ecological sectors are potential large water consumption clients.
引文
[1]David Pimental, Bonnie Bergen, David Filiberto, et al. Water resources: agricultual andenvironmental issues [J]. BioScience,2004,54(10):909-918.
[2]钱正英，张光斗.中国可持续发展水资源战略研究综合报告及各专题报告[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2001.
[3]United Nations. Comprehensive assessment of the freshwater resources of the world [EB/OL].(1999). http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/freshwat.htm.
[4]World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED). Our Common Future[M].New York: Oxford University Press,1987:383-400.
[5]张岳.中国水利发展战略文集[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,1995.
[6]中国21世纪议程管理中心.中国21世纪议程—中国21世纪人口、环境与发展白皮书[M].北京:中国环境科学出社，1994.
[7]http://www.nsfc.gov.cn/nsfc/cen/00/kxb/dqback/yxzzly/qyfz1.htm.
[8]陈锐.基于生态重建的西部流域尺度水资源调控模式初探[J].中国科学院院刊,2005,(01):37-41.
[9]Kang J W, Moon S-R, Park S-J, et al. Analyzing sea level rise and tide characteristics changedriven by coastal construction at Mokpo Coastal Zone in Korea[J]. Ocean Engineering,2009(36):415-425.
[10]Cao W Z, Wong M H. Current status of coastal zone issues and management in China: Areview[J]. Environment International,2007(33):985-992.
[11]陈家琦,王浩.水资源学概论[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,1996．
[12]陈家琦.浅谈“水资源”和“水资源学”[J].水问题论坛,1994(3):15-19.
[13]叶永毅.水资源[A].中国大百科全书总编辑委员会.中国大百科全书:大气科学、海洋科学、水文科学卷[C].北京:中国大百科全书出版社,1987.
[14]本刊编辑部组稿.笔谈:水资源的定义和内涵[J].水科学进展,1991,2(3):206-215.
[15]孙鸿烈.中国资源科学百科全书[M].北京:中国大百科全书出版社,2000．
[16]王春元,杨永江.水资源经济学及其应用[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,1999．
[17]侯玉玲,张艳红,李春辉.城市雨水资源利用现状及发展建议[J].水科学与工程技术,2004,6:11-13.
[18]左其亭.城市水资源承载能力—理论、方法、应用[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2005.
[19]钟淋涓,方国华,国延恒.水资源、社会经济与生态环境相互作用关系研究[J].水利经济,2007,25(3):4-7.
[20]刘德文,于卉,王立明.海河流域纳污能力与限制排污总量分析[J].海河水利,2006(6):4-6.
[21] Wang X. Integrating water-quality management and land-use planning in a watershedcontext[J]. Journal of Environmental Management,2001,61(1):25-36.
[22]Hartley J A, Powell R S. The development of a combined water demand prediction system [J].Civil Engineering Systems,1991,8(4):231-236.
[23]Prasifka D W. Current Trends in Water Supply Planning[M]. New York: Van NostrandReinhold Company,1988.
[24]WCED. Sustainable Development and Water. Statement on the WCED report"Our common Future"[M].Water International,1989,14(3):151-152.
[25]马兴冠,傅金祥,李勇.水资源需求预测研究[J].沈阳建筑工程学院学报(自然科学版),2002,18(2):135-138.
[26]Atef Al-Kharabsheh, Rakad Ta’any. Challenges of water demand management in Jordan [J].Water International,2005,30(2):210-219.
[27]李令跃,甘泓.试论水资源合理配置和承载能力概念与可持续发展之间的关系[J].水科学进展,2000,11(3):307-313.
[28]姚建文,徐子恺,王建生.21世纪中叶中国需水展望[J].水科学进展,1999(2):190-194.
[29]陈家琦.中国水资源问题及21世纪初期供需展望[J].水问题论坛,1994(1):25-31.
[30]B.Braga.发展中国家的可持续水资源开发[A].武汉:武汉测绘科技大学出版社.1999:6-13.
[31]Haimes Y Y, Nainis W S. Coordination of regional water resource supply and demandplanning models[J]. Water Resources Research,1974,10(6):1051-1059.
[32]Dinar A, Rosegrant M W, and Meinzen-Dick R S. Water allocation mechanisms: principlesand examples[R].World Bank, Agriculture and Natural Resources Department. Pollicy ResearchWorking Paper No.1779:6-21.
[33]Vasquez J A, Maier H R, Lence B J, et al. Achieving water quality system reliability usinggenetic algorithms[J]. Journal of Environmental Engineering,2000,126(10):954-962.
[34]Ringler C. Optimal allocation and use of water resources in the Mekong River Basin:Multi-country and intersectoral analyses Development Economics and Policy Series20[R].California: University of California Press,2001.
[35]Cai X M, McKinney D C, and Lasdon L S. Solving nonlinear water management modelsusing a combined genetic algorithm and linear programming approach[J]. Advances in WaterResources,2001,24(6):667-676.
[36] Dat T W and Labadie J W. River basin network model for integrated water quantity/qualitymanagement[J]. Journal of Water Resource Planning and Management,2001,127(5):295-305.
[37]Mchinney D C, Cai X M. Multiobjective optimization model for water allocation in the AralSea Basin[D]. University of Texas at Austin,2003.
[38]Alcomo J, Doll P, and Thomas. Development and testing of the waterGAP2golbal model ofwater use and availability[J]. Hydrological Science Journal,2003,48(3):317-337.
[39]River Murray Catchment Water Management Board[R]. Water allocation plan for the RiverMurraypre scribed watercourse,1997.
[40]Makropoulos C K, Natsis K, Liu S, et al. Decision support for sustainable option selection inintegrated urban water management[J]. Environmental Modelling&Software,2008,23(12):1448-1460.
[41]Schluter M, Savitsky A G, McKinney D C, et al. Optimizing long-term water allocation in theAmudarya river delta: a water management model for ecological impact assessment[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,2005(20):529-545.
[42]王光谦,魏加华.流域水量调控模型与应用[M].北京:科学出版社.2006:17-21.
[43]贺北方.区域水资源大系统优化分配的大系统优化模型[J].武汉水利电力学院学报,1998,(5):107-117.
[44]中国水利水电科学研究水资源所编.水资源大系统优化规划与优化调度经验汇编[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1995.
[45]方创琳.区域可持续发展与水资源优化配置研究—以西北十旱区柴达木盆地为例[J].自然资源学报,2001,16(4):341-347.
[46]左其亭,陈嘻.面向可持续发展的水资源规划与管理[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2003.
[47]冯耀龙,韩文秀,王宏江,等.面向可持续发展的区域水资源优化配置研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2003(2):133-138.
[48]许新宜,王浩,甘泓.华北地区宏观经济水资源规划理论与方法[M].郑州:黄河水利出版社,1997.
[49]中国水利水电科学研究院.面向生态经济建设的西北水资源合理配置模式[J].中国水利,2000(4):17-19.
[50]Savenije H H G, Van der Zaag P, Integrated water resources management: concepts andissues[J]. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C,2008,33(5):290-297.
[51]Mazvimavi D, Hoko Z, JonkerL, et al. Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM)-From Concept to Practice[J]. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,2008,33(8-13):609-613.
[52]Rijsberman M A and van de Ven F H M, Different approaches to assessment of design andmanagement of sustainable urban water systems[J]. Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2000,20(3):333-345.
[53]Matsumura E M and Mierzwa J C. Water conservation and reuse in poultry processing plant-Acase study[J]. Resources, Conservation and Recycling,2008,52(6):835-842.
[54]Bixio D, Thoeye C, Wintgens T, et al. Water reclamation and reuse: implementation andmanagement issues[J]. Desalination,2008,218(1-3):13-23.
[55]Bouma J J, Francois D, and Troch P. Risk assessment and water management[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,2005,20(2):141-151.
[56]Croke B F W, Ticehurst J L, Letcher R A, et al. Integrated assessment of water resources:Australian experiences[J]. Water Resources Management,2007,21(4):351–373.
[57]蒋秀华,王玲,杨晋芳,等.西北诸河区平原区地下水资源可开采量分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2007(2):77-79.
[58]钱易,刘昌明,邵益生.中国城市水资源可持续开发利用[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2002.
[59]左其亭.论水资源承载能力与水资源优化配置之间的关系[J].水利学报,2005(11):1286-1291.
[60]王宏江,陆桂华.区域水资源组成、潜力及其可持续利用分析[J].水利学报,2003,34(8):122-126.
[61]Berbel J, Martin-Ortega J and Mesa P. A cost-effectiveness analysis of water-saving measuresfor the water framework directive: the case of the Guadalquivir River Basin in southern Spain[J].Water Resources Management,2011,25(2):623-640.
[62]Noekstra A Y. Appreciation of water: four perspectives[J].Water Policy,1998(1):605-622.
[63]阮本清,张春玲,黄明聪.浅谈水资源需求管理中的经济措施[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2003(1):56-62.
[64]张瑞恒等.水资源经济论[M].北京:中国大地出版社,2003.
[65]高庆洲.水资源利用的经济学思考—近十年陕西省总用水量经济学初步解释[J].地下水,2001,23(3):114-115.
[66]戴慎志,陈践.城市给水排水工程规划[M].合肥:安徽科学技术出版社,1999:18-45.
[67]青岛市水利局.水资源综合规划[M].2004.
[68]张立杰,高伟.人口模型及和硕县人口预测[J].新疆工学院学报,1998(2):145-148.
[69]Beke J M J. Endogenous extrapolation of labor force participation rates of married women[J].De Economist,1988,136(1):118-135.
[70]袁宝招.水资源需求驱动因素及其调控研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.
[71]田小娟.扬州市水资源承载力评价研究[D].扬州:扬州大学,2006.
[72]高素芳,刘凤莲,马玉香.灰色预测模型的改进在城市需水量预测中的应用[J].价值工程,2010(22):95-96.
[73]张新民,刘佳莉,金彦兆,等.近30年甘肃省农业需水预测与节水高效农业建设途径[J].干旱地区农业研究,2004,22(4):143-148.
[74]鲍卫锋,黄介生,于福亮.区域生态需水量计算方法研究[J].水土保持学报,2005,19(5):139-142.
[75]高恩林,吕琳莉.基于tennant法的年楚河流域河道生态需水量研究[J].西藏科技,2008(12):40-41.
[76]Haafhoff J and Van der Merwe B. Twenty-five years of wastewater reclamation in Windhoek,Namibia[J]. Water Science and Technology,1996,33(10-11):25-35.
[77]Asano T and Levine A D. Wastewater reclamation, recycling and reuse: past, present, andfuture[J]. Water Science and Technology,1996,33(10-11):1-14.
[78]霍建光.污水资源化是水资源可持续开发及利用的重要途径[J].山西水利科技,2000,(S2):72-73.
[79]朱伟萍,何亚丽,殷磊.城市污水资源化的应用[J].平顶山工学院学报,2004,13(4):35-38.
[80]Vane S, Ashbolt N J, and White S B. Decentralized urban water reuse: the implications ofsystem scale for cost and pathogen risk[J]. Water Science and Technology,2002,46(6-7):281-288.
[81]Fewkes A and Butler D. Simulating the performance of rainwater collection systems usingbehavioural models[J]. Building Services Engineering Research and Technology,2000,21(2),99-106.
[82]Fewkes A. Modelling the performance of rainwater collection systems: towards a generalizedapproach[J]. Urban Water.2000,1(4):323-333.
[83]刘俊良.城市节制用水规划原理与技术[M].北京:北京化学工业出版社,2003.
[84]孙津媛,张健.天津市水资源的可持续发展[J].水利科技与经济,2010,16(11):1284-1286.
[85]张岩.海水淡化是解决全球水资源短缺问题的有效途径——以色列南部阿什克隆海水淡化(Ashkelon)项目简介[J].中国冶金,2011,21(2):49-51.
[86]周巧君,费学宁,周立峰,等.海水淡化与水资源可持续利用[J].水科学与工程技术,2010(5):3-5.
[87]章建文,王睿.国外水资源管理模式对湘江水资源统一管理与调配的借鉴[J].中南林业科技大学学报(社会科学版),2010，4(6):47-50.
[88]Coello C A. An updated survey of GA-based muftiobjective optimization techniques[J]. ACMComputing Surveys,2000,32(2):109-143.
[89]Marler R T and Arora J S. Survey of Mufti-objective optimization methods for engineering[J].Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization,2004,26(6):369-395.
[90]贺北方,周丽,马细霞,等.基于遗传算法的区域水资源优化配置模型[J].水电能源科学,2002,20(3):10-13.
[91]甘衍军,李兰.东西汊湖水资源合理配置研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2009(2):9-11.
[92]杨振山,文辉,蔡建明.从投入产出视角看城乡经济关系的发展与演变[J].经济地理,2011,31(8):1294-1300.
[93]雷明,赵欣娜.可持续发展下的绿色投入产出核算应用分析——基于中国2007绿色投入产出表[J].经济科学,2011(4):16-27.
[94]刘品,王维平,马承新,等.山东省宏观经济水资源投入产出分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2011,30(1):117-120.
[95]梅亚东,冯尚友.水资源复合系统基本特征的探讨[J].水科学进展,1992,3(1):31-36.
[96]严婷婷,贾绍凤.水资源投入产出模型综述[J].水利经济,2009,27(1):8-13,75.
[97]郭家祯.基于投入产出模型的多目标优化分析[D].镇江:江苏大学,2010.
[2]钱正英，张光斗.中国可持续发展水资源战略研究综合报告及各专题报告[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2001.
[3]United Nations. Comprehensive assessment of the freshwater resources of the world [EB/OL].(1999). http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/freshwat.htm.
[4]World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED). Our Common Future[M].New York: Oxford University Press,1987:383-400.
[5]张岳.中国水利发展战略文集[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,1995.
[6]中国21世纪议程管理中心.中国21世纪议程—中国21世纪人口、环境与发展白皮书[M].北京:中国环境科学出社，1994.
[7]http://www.nsfc.gov.cn/nsfc/cen/00/kxb/dqback/yxzzly/qyfz1.htm.
[8]陈锐.基于生态重建的西部流域尺度水资源调控模式初探[J].中国科学院院刊,2005,(01):37-41.
[9]Kang J W, Moon S-R, Park S-J, et al. Analyzing sea level rise and tide characteristics changedriven by coastal construction at Mokpo Coastal Zone in Korea[J]. Ocean Engineering,2009(36):415-425.
[10]Cao W Z, Wong M H. Current status of coastal zone issues and management in China: Areview[J]. Environment International,2007(33):985-992.
[11]陈家琦,王浩.水资源学概论[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,1996．
[12]陈家琦.浅谈“水资源”和“水资源学”[J].水问题论坛,1994(3):15-19.
[13]叶永毅.水资源[A].中国大百科全书总编辑委员会.中国大百科全书:大气科学、海洋科学、水文科学卷[C].北京:中国大百科全书出版社,1987.
[14]本刊编辑部组稿.笔谈:水资源的定义和内涵[J].水科学进展,1991,2(3):206-215.
[15]孙鸿烈.中国资源科学百科全书[M].北京:中国大百科全书出版社,2000．
[16]王春元,杨永江.水资源经济学及其应用[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,1999．
[17]侯玉玲,张艳红,李春辉.城市雨水资源利用现状及发展建议[J].水科学与工程技术,2004,6:11-13.
[18]左其亭.城市水资源承载能力—理论、方法、应用[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2005.
[19]钟淋涓,方国华,国延恒.水资源、社会经济与生态环境相互作用关系研究[J].水利经济,2007,25(3):4-7.
[20]刘德文,于卉,王立明.海河流域纳污能力与限制排污总量分析[J].海河水利,2006(6):4-6.
[21] Wang X. Integrating water-quality management and land-use planning in a watershedcontext[J]. Journal of Environmental Management,2001,61(1):25-36.
[22]Hartley J A, Powell R S. The development of a combined water demand prediction system [J].Civil Engineering Systems,1991,8(4):231-236.
[23]Prasifka D W. Current Trends in Water Supply Planning[M]. New York: Van NostrandReinhold Company,1988.
[24]WCED. Sustainable Development and Water. Statement on the WCED report"Our common Future"[M].Water International,1989,14(3):151-152.
[25]马兴冠,傅金祥,李勇.水资源需求预测研究[J].沈阳建筑工程学院学报(自然科学版),2002,18(2):135-138.
[26]Atef Al-Kharabsheh, Rakad Ta’any. Challenges of water demand management in Jordan [J].Water International,2005,30(2):210-219.
[27]李令跃,甘泓.试论水资源合理配置和承载能力概念与可持续发展之间的关系[J].水科学进展,2000,11(3):307-313.
[28]姚建文,徐子恺,王建生.21世纪中叶中国需水展望[J].水科学进展,1999(2):190-194.
[29]陈家琦.中国水资源问题及21世纪初期供需展望[J].水问题论坛,1994(1):25-31.
[30]B.Braga.发展中国家的可持续水资源开发[A].武汉:武汉测绘科技大学出版社.1999:6-13.
[31]Haimes Y Y, Nainis W S. Coordination of regional water resource supply and demandplanning models[J]. Water Resources Research,1974,10(6):1051-1059.
[32]Dinar A, Rosegrant M W, and Meinzen-Dick R S. Water allocation mechanisms: principlesand examples[R].World Bank, Agriculture and Natural Resources Department. Pollicy ResearchWorking Paper No.1779:6-21.
[33]Vasquez J A, Maier H R, Lence B J, et al. Achieving water quality system reliability usinggenetic algorithms[J]. Journal of Environmental Engineering,2000,126(10):954-962.
[34]Ringler C. Optimal allocation and use of water resources in the Mekong River Basin:Multi-country and intersectoral analyses Development Economics and Policy Series20[R].California: University of California Press,2001.
[35]Cai X M, McKinney D C, and Lasdon L S. Solving nonlinear water management modelsusing a combined genetic algorithm and linear programming approach[J]. Advances in WaterResources,2001,24(6):667-676.
[36] Dat T W and Labadie J W. River basin network model for integrated water quantity/qualitymanagement[J]. Journal of Water Resource Planning and Management,2001,127(5):295-305.
[37]Mchinney D C, Cai X M. Multiobjective optimization model for water allocation in the AralSea Basin[D]. University of Texas at Austin,2003.
[38]Alcomo J, Doll P, and Thomas. Development and testing of the waterGAP2golbal model ofwater use and availability[J]. Hydrological Science Journal,2003,48(3):317-337.
[39]River Murray Catchment Water Management Board[R]. Water allocation plan for the RiverMurraypre scribed watercourse,1997.
[40]Makropoulos C K, Natsis K, Liu S, et al. Decision support for sustainable option selection inintegrated urban water management[J]. Environmental Modelling&Software,2008,23(12):1448-1460.
[41]Schluter M, Savitsky A G, McKinney D C, et al. Optimizing long-term water allocation in theAmudarya river delta: a water management model for ecological impact assessment[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,2005(20):529-545.
[42]王光谦,魏加华.流域水量调控模型与应用[M].北京:科学出版社.2006:17-21.
[43]贺北方.区域水资源大系统优化分配的大系统优化模型[J].武汉水利电力学院学报,1998,(5):107-117.
[44]中国水利水电科学研究水资源所编.水资源大系统优化规划与优化调度经验汇编[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1995.
[45]方创琳.区域可持续发展与水资源优化配置研究—以西北十旱区柴达木盆地为例[J].自然资源学报,2001,16(4):341-347.
[46]左其亭,陈嘻.面向可持续发展的水资源规划与管理[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2003.
[47]冯耀龙,韩文秀,王宏江,等.面向可持续发展的区域水资源优化配置研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2003(2):133-138.
[48]许新宜,王浩,甘泓.华北地区宏观经济水资源规划理论与方法[M].郑州:黄河水利出版社,1997.
[49]中国水利水电科学研究院.面向生态经济建设的西北水资源合理配置模式[J].中国水利,2000(4):17-19.
[50]Savenije H H G, Van der Zaag P, Integrated water resources management: concepts andissues[J]. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C,2008,33(5):290-297.
[51]Mazvimavi D, Hoko Z, JonkerL, et al. Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM)-From Concept to Practice[J]. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,2008,33(8-13):609-613.
[52]Rijsberman M A and van de Ven F H M, Different approaches to assessment of design andmanagement of sustainable urban water systems[J]. Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2000,20(3):333-345.
[53]Matsumura E M and Mierzwa J C. Water conservation and reuse in poultry processing plant-Acase study[J]. Resources, Conservation and Recycling,2008,52(6):835-842.
[54]Bixio D, Thoeye C, Wintgens T, et al. Water reclamation and reuse: implementation andmanagement issues[J]. Desalination,2008,218(1-3):13-23.
[55]Bouma J J, Francois D, and Troch P. Risk assessment and water management[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,2005,20(2):141-151.
[56]Croke B F W, Ticehurst J L, Letcher R A, et al. Integrated assessment of water resources:Australian experiences[J]. Water Resources Management,2007,21(4):351–373.
[57]蒋秀华,王玲,杨晋芳,等.西北诸河区平原区地下水资源可开采量分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2007(2):77-79.
[58]钱易,刘昌明,邵益生.中国城市水资源可持续开发利用[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2002.
[59]左其亭.论水资源承载能力与水资源优化配置之间的关系[J].水利学报,2005(11):1286-1291.
[60]王宏江,陆桂华.区域水资源组成、潜力及其可持续利用分析[J].水利学报,2003,34(8):122-126.
[61]Berbel J, Martin-Ortega J and Mesa P. A cost-effectiveness analysis of water-saving measuresfor the water framework directive: the case of the Guadalquivir River Basin in southern Spain[J].Water Resources Management,2011,25(2):623-640.
[62]Noekstra A Y. Appreciation of water: four perspectives[J].Water Policy,1998(1):605-622.
[63]阮本清,张春玲,黄明聪.浅谈水资源需求管理中的经济措施[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2003(1):56-62.
[64]张瑞恒等.水资源经济论[M].北京:中国大地出版社,2003.
[65]高庆洲.水资源利用的经济学思考—近十年陕西省总用水量经济学初步解释[J].地下水,2001,23(3):114-115.
[66]戴慎志,陈践.城市给水排水工程规划[M].合肥:安徽科学技术出版社,1999:18-45.
[67]青岛市水利局.水资源综合规划[M].2004.
[68]张立杰,高伟.人口模型及和硕县人口预测[J].新疆工学院学报,1998(2):145-148.
[69]Beke J M J. Endogenous extrapolation of labor force participation rates of married women[J].De Economist,1988,136(1):118-135.
[70]袁宝招.水资源需求驱动因素及其调控研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.
[71]田小娟.扬州市水资源承载力评价研究[D].扬州:扬州大学,2006.
[72]高素芳,刘凤莲,马玉香.灰色预测模型的改进在城市需水量预测中的应用[J].价值工程,2010(22):95-96.
[73]张新民,刘佳莉,金彦兆,等.近30年甘肃省农业需水预测与节水高效农业建设途径[J].干旱地区农业研究,2004,22(4):143-148.
[74]鲍卫锋,黄介生,于福亮.区域生态需水量计算方法研究[J].水土保持学报,2005,19(5):139-142.
[75]高恩林,吕琳莉.基于tennant法的年楚河流域河道生态需水量研究[J].西藏科技,2008(12):40-41.
[76]Haafhoff J and Van der Merwe B. Twenty-five years of wastewater reclamation in Windhoek,Namibia[J]. Water Science and Technology,1996,33(10-11):25-35.
[77]Asano T and Levine A D. Wastewater reclamation, recycling and reuse: past, present, andfuture[J]. Water Science and Technology,1996,33(10-11):1-14.
[78]霍建光.污水资源化是水资源可持续开发及利用的重要途径[J].山西水利科技,2000,(S2):72-73.
[79]朱伟萍,何亚丽,殷磊.城市污水资源化的应用[J].平顶山工学院学报,2004,13(4):35-38.
[80]Vane S, Ashbolt N J, and White S B. Decentralized urban water reuse: the implications ofsystem scale for cost and pathogen risk[J]. Water Science and Technology,2002,46(6-7):281-288.
[81]Fewkes A and Butler D. Simulating the performance of rainwater collection systems usingbehavioural models[J]. Building Services Engineering Research and Technology,2000,21(2),99-106.
[82]Fewkes A. Modelling the performance of rainwater collection systems: towards a generalizedapproach[J]. Urban Water.2000,1(4):323-333.
[83]刘俊良.城市节制用水规划原理与技术[M].北京:北京化学工业出版社,2003.
[84]孙津媛,张健.天津市水资源的可持续发展[J].水利科技与经济,2010,16(11):1284-1286.
[85]张岩.海水淡化是解决全球水资源短缺问题的有效途径——以色列南部阿什克隆海水淡化(Ashkelon)项目简介[J].中国冶金,2011,21(2):49-51.
[86]周巧君,费学宁,周立峰,等.海水淡化与水资源可持续利用[J].水科学与工程技术,2010(5):3-5.
[87]章建文,王睿.国外水资源管理模式对湘江水资源统一管理与调配的借鉴[J].中南林业科技大学学报(社会科学版),2010，4(6):47-50.
[88]Coello C A. An updated survey of GA-based muftiobjective optimization techniques[J]. ACMComputing Surveys,2000,32(2):109-143.
[89]Marler R T and Arora J S. Survey of Mufti-objective optimization methods for engineering[J].Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization,2004,26(6):369-395.
[90]贺北方,周丽,马细霞,等.基于遗传算法的区域水资源优化配置模型[J].水电能源科学,2002,20(3):10-13.
[91]甘衍军,李兰.东西汊湖水资源合理配置研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2009(2):9-11.
[92]杨振山,文辉,蔡建明.从投入产出视角看城乡经济关系的发展与演变[J].经济地理,2011,31(8):1294-1300.
[93]雷明,赵欣娜.可持续发展下的绿色投入产出核算应用分析——基于中国2007绿色投入产出表[J].经济科学,2011(4):16-27.
[94]刘品,王维平,马承新,等.山东省宏观经济水资源投入产出分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2011,30(1):117-120.
[95]梅亚东,冯尚友.水资源复合系统基本特征的探讨[J].水科学进展,1992,3(1):31-36.
[96]严婷婷,贾绍凤.水资源投入产出模型综述[J].水利经济,2009,27(1):8-13,75.
[97]郭家祯.基于投入产出模型的多目标优化分析[D].镇江:江苏大学,2010.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |