人口老龄化背景下中国城镇养老金支付能力研究
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摘要
人口老龄化、金融市场的全球化、国家间区位竞争的加剧等等因素的变化对传统福利国家制度提出了前所未有的挑战。在人口上,受到代际契约的挑战,从20世纪70年代伊始,几乎所有福利国家的人口都面临着年龄结构的深刻变化。西方的人口转变理论呈现出生率和死亡率由高到低的变化趋势,这些人口转变必然导致人口老龄化。人口老龄化是社会经济发展的必然结果,是养老金支付能力最直接的挑战。养老金缴费者和养老金领取者的比例在几年之内会发生急剧转变。从经济角度上讲,劳动力市场的萎缩程度将进一步加剧,导致缴费者的减少。从社会的角度上讲,家庭规模在不断缩小,由家庭负担的责任需要社会来承担。多种时代背景综合下,整个社会的养老负担会逐渐加重。
中国在严峻的人口经济发展背景下,无论在宏观和还是在微观领域,都会遇到诸多如经济增长趋缓、巨额转轨成本等问题,它们对中国将来的养老金支付提出了巨大的挑战。在相当长的一段时期内,中国的社会养老责任还将主要由国家主导的基本养老保险来承担,中国养老金一方面要承担巨额的历史隐形债务,另一方面又要负责人口老龄化产生的更多养老需求,未来一段时间内养老金的支付风险会越来越大。本文以人口老龄化为大背景,有效评估中国养老金支付能力,并且以维持养老金长期财务平衡为目的,提出可行性方案,将有利于减轻财政压力和负担,化解部分隐形债务,缩小资金缺口,提高养老金支付能力,促进中国养老保险制度可持续发展。
本文的主要任务是通过理论和实务研究,建立中国养老金支付能力模型,为提高中国养老金支付能力提供对策和建议。主要框架是：问题背景提出——相关研究述评——宏、微观影响因素分析——建立模型测算——结论与建议。
本文以研究提升养老金支付能力为逻辑中心,重点关注几个问题：第一,经济因素、非经济因素和养老保险制度内部因素对中国养老金支付能力的影响；第二,基于人口老龄化的大背景下,提高养老金支付能力的实证研究。围绕上述问题,本文除了绪论外,共涉及到四大部分：
第一部分,养老保险制度及支付能力的相关研究述评。
分别介绍了国内外相关养老保险制度及支付能力的经典研究。它们分别是养老保险制度变迁的生命周期假说、代际交叠模型等经典理论,养老保险制度与经济、与储蓄、与资本市场的关系,养老保险制度的统账结构以及养老保险基金公营还是私营的有关争论。
第二部分,影响养老金支付能力的环境因素分析。
包括影响养老金支付能力经济环境中的经济发展水平、通货膨胀、工资增长率等；非经济因素中的政府责任、城市化进程以及人口结构变化等；养老保险制度内部的养老保险管理体制、养老基金运营、养老金隐形债务等因素。
第三部分,养老金支付能力的实证研究。
测算将来中国入口数量规模、性别结构、年龄结构等,分析人口结构变化对养老金支付能力的影响。之后利用人口结构结论数据,建模测算基本养老保险资金和个人账户资金的收支情况,论证它们在将来是否有能力承担养老金支付。
第四部分,提高养老金支付能力的政策建议。
根据实证分析结果,提出针对性的改良措施。在短期内优化制度政策环境,建议延迟退休年龄,加快提高统筹层次,设立养老保险预算制度和清缴历史欠费,规范养老金征管等；在中期内提高养老基金效率,健全养老金财务管理,建立可持续养老金个人账户,多渠道化解历史债务,多元化投资养老保险基金和健全养老保险基金监督管理；在长期内提升国民经济实力。
综观全文,主要的创新之处可以归纳为两个方面：
一是从宏、微观角度全面分析影响养老金支付能力的各项因素。养老金支付能力受到宏观、微观环境和本身的政策制度制约。目前,对养老金支付能力环境进行全面分析的研究较少,本文从经济因素、非经济因素和养老保险制度内部因素入手,全方位地分析了影响养老金支付能力的因素及它们对支付能力的影响程度。经济因素和非经济因素属于外围环境对养老金支付能力的影响因素。经济因素对养老金支付能力的影响是不言而喻的,它的存在或变迁通过一定的中间变量,最终会对养老金支付能力产生不同程度的影响。政治因素、社会因素和法律因素也会在一定程度上对养老金支付能力产生作用,本文把它们归纳为非经济因素,研究其对养老金支付能力的影响。制度政策是影响养老金支付能力的内生因素,它对养老金支付产生的影响,主要是在制度设计、制度实施和制度保障等制度安排过程中产生的。从影响养老金支付能力的外生因素和内生因素进行研究,能够更加全面地评价中国养老金支付能力。
二是人口数量按照男性和女性进行分别处理,升级养老金支付能力模型。本文利用人口结构精算中较为成熟的队列预测法之同批人变化率法作为算法,从历次全国人口普查资料和1989年到2010年的中国人口统计年鉴中收集基础数据,计算得出未来50年的中国城镇人口结构数据,包括年龄结构、性别结构等方面。作为实证研究养老金支付能力的基础数据。
建立中国养老金长期收支模型。细分人口结构,研究其对养老金支付能力的影响。本文在模型中摒弃以往研究中把人口总量作为人口因素研究参数,而对人口数据按照男性和女性数量进行分别处理,这更符合中国实际中男性和女性由于寿命和退休年龄的不同,对养老金支付的需求也是不同的现实,能够更准确地评估中国养老金支付水平。得出中国养老金短期内收支基本平衡,中期内收略低于支,长期内严重收不抵支的结论。
本文研究的不足之处可以归纳为三个方面：
一是本文所取数据均为城镇养老保险体系,并没有涉及农村养老保险体系,然而城镇养老保险仅为中国养老保险体系中的一个分支。人口老龄化和养老金支付能力在中国农村可能面临更为严峻的形势。所以实际上本文所预测的中国养老金支付能力要乐观于中国的实际情况。
二是在提高养老金支付能力的方案中,还存在多方面值得深入探讨和研究的问题。比如养老金替代率的问题,本文只是在建立模型中将其作为假设前提进行了规定,而并没有对其合理性作出判断。
三是针对养老保险制度环境限制养老金支付能力的因素中,有些因素只能定性分析而不能定量分析,比如,企业和个人诚信。囿于作者能力没能把它们纳入模型中进行量化分析。
The changes in a number of factors are challenging the traditional welfare states system, such as the aging population, the globalization of financial markets and the international competitive. At the beginning of1970s, because of the intergenerational contract challenge, almost all the population in the welfare states were facing with profound changes in the age structure. From the western theory of demographic transition, it is obviously that the development of industrialization, modernization and social economy led to the transition of population structure, it is result in the trend that the birth rate and death rate from high to low, these changes would inevitably led to the aging population. We can be deduced the aging population is the inevitable result of social economic development from the theory of demographic transition. The ratio of pension payment and pensioners will dramatically change within a few years. The population aging has become the most direct challenge of pension payment ability. Now the capital intensive industry and innovation economy enterprises occupy a dominant position in the world, employment opportunities concentrated in those efficient labors because of the structural unemployment all over the world. At the same time, the trend is the enterprise to increase other production data input to replace the increased manpower cost, which will make the labor market further small. From the social perspective, family welfare production will be reduced because of the family size has shrunk. It had confirmed the cross family relationships and associations between contacts have been greatly reduced in the United States and some European countries. Multiple backgrounds integrated, the burden of aged has been increasing gradually in the whole society.
Severing demographic and economic context of the development, China will encounter lots of issues in both macro and micro fields, such as the slowdown in economic growth, huge transition costs; those are definitely a huge challenge on the pension payment in near future. In a fairly long period, National basic pension insurance has to take the responsibility for China social pension. In one hand, China pension has to bear a huge historical stealth debt, in another hand, it has to be in charge of more pension requirements from aging population. The risk of pension payment ability will be bigger and bigger in future. The article evaluated the ability of China pension payment effectively under the background of aging population. In order to maintain long-term pension financial balance, the author proposed feasibility plan which will contribute to reduce financial stress and burden, resolve a part of stealth debt, narrow the funding gap, and improve the ability of pension payment. It will be helpful to promote the sustainable development of China pension system.
In order to alleviate the enterprises'burden and construct a harmonious society, China not complete copy foreign models in the endowment insurance reform. It effectively combined the pay-as-you-go and the accumulation systems according to Chinese national condition. It founded united accounts of social endowment insurance system in China, the main purpose is to deal with the risk of population aging and reflect the mutual aid. It can improve the ability of endowment insurance payment although there are still many immature places. However, both in the macrocosmic and microcosmic field, China still face a lot of problems, such as economic growth slowed and the huge transition cost. It is very necessary to research the capability of Chinese pension payment and then put forward to measures.
The purpose of this paper is to create a model based on the research of theory and current situation to makes suggestions on improving the payment ability of China pension. The main frame is:background issue posing-relative research-analysis of macroµ factors-model calculation-Conclusions and recommendations.
The article centered on the research of improving payment ability of pension, and focused on couple of issues:First, the impact from economic&non-economic external factors and internal factors of the pension insurance system; second, the empirical research to improve the payment ability of pension based on context of aging population. This paper probed into above-mentioned issues with4parts excluding introduction:
The first part, research review on pension system and payment ability.
Introduced the study of classic theory in domestic and overseas pension insurance system and payment ability. They are the Life Cycle Hypothesis of the pension system changes, intergenerational overlap model, the relationship among the pension insurance system and the economy, savings, and capital markets, account structure of pension insurance system and the controversy of managing pension insurance fund in public or private.
Second part, the analysis on environmental factors impacting the payment ability of pension.
Including following factors, economic factors-the level of economic development, inflation, wage growth rate; noneconomic factors-government responsibility, urbanization and population structure changes; internal factors-management system in pension insurance system, pension fund operations, pension stealth debt, and other factors.
Third part, the empirical research of the pension payment ability.
Estimates of future population size, sex structure, age structure, analysis of the pension payments impact caused by the changes in population structure. And then, created model based on the demographic conclusions data to estimate the basic old-age insurance funds and personal funds in the account balance of payments situation, demonstrated and evaluated the ability to assume the pension payments in the future.
The fourth part, policy recommendations to improve the pension ability of payment.
According to the empirical results, proposed targeted improvement measures. Optimize the system policy environment in the short term, it is recommended to delay the retirement age, to accelerate improvements in the overall level, the establishment of the pension budget system and the settlement of historical arrears, and regulating pension funds collection; in the medium term to improve the pension fund efficiency and improve the financial management of pension funds, to establish a sustainable pension personal accounts, resolve the historic debt in multiple channels, diversification of investment and pension insurance funds and improve the pension insurance fund supervision and management; enhance the national economy in the long term.
Making a comprehensive view to the whole dissertation, the major innovations can be consolidated as two points:
First, a comprehensive analysis of the various factors that affect the ability of pension payments in both macroµ view. Pension payments ability is impacted by macro-and micro-environment external factors and their own policies and systems constraints. At present, there are few of comprehensive analysis of research on pension payment ability, this article started from economic&noneconomic factors and internal factors, analyzed those factors and their effect on ability of payment. Economic and non-economic factors are external ones. There is no denying the fact that the impacts from economic factors is great, its impacts on pension payments varied with its presence or transition through the intermediate variables. Political, social and legal factors is impacting the pension payment ability more or less, the paper concluded those as non-economic factors, to study its impact on the ability of pension payments. The system policy is endogenous factors affect the ability of pension payments to its pension payments, the impact is mainly generated in the institutional arrangements of the system design, system implementation and system security. It is more comprehensive to evaluate the ability of pension payments from both external and internal factors.
Second, Population was treated separately by gender, and upgraded the model of ability of pension payment. Based on the base data from National census and China Population Statistics Yearbook(1989-2010), the paper leverage the maturing algorithm of change rate of same group (one of cohort-component method) to calculate the urban population structure in next50years, including age structure, gender structure. Those are used as basic data for empirical research of pension payments ability.
The author established long-term pension income and expenditure model, subdivided population structure, and researched the impact on the ability of pension payments. In this paper, author abandoned the previous studies which utilized total population as the population factor parameters, and processed population data in accordance with the number of men and women, it better conform to the China reality that requirement of pension payments is different as life time and retirement age are different between men and women, thus, it was able to more accurately evaluate the level of pension payments. The conclusion of the article is Chinese pension short-term balance of payments; in the medium term income slightly below the branch; in long-term serious income over expenditure
The inadequacies of this study can be summarized in three aspects:
First, data in this paper are from urban pension system, and don't involve the rural pension system; however, urban pension insurance is only a branch of pension system in China. Aging population and ability of pension payment could face more severe situation in rural China. Therefore, in fact this forecast on the ability of pension payment should be more optimistic compared with the actual situation in China.
Second, in the program to improve the ability of pension payment, there are a number of factors which are worthy of depth study and research. Such as pension replacement rate, which is only be provided as and assumption in this article to build the model, whose rationality isn't made any judgments.
Third, regarding the pension system environment factors that limit the payment of pension, some of these were only qualitative analysis but not quantitative analysis, for example, businesses and personal integrity. Limited by the capacity of author, those were not included in the model for quantitative analysis.
中国在严峻的人口经济发展背景下,无论在宏观和还是在微观领域,都会遇到诸多如经济增长趋缓、巨额转轨成本等问题,它们对中国将来的养老金支付提出了巨大的挑战。在相当长的一段时期内,中国的社会养老责任还将主要由国家主导的基本养老保险来承担,中国养老金一方面要承担巨额的历史隐形债务,另一方面又要负责人口老龄化产生的更多养老需求,未来一段时间内养老金的支付风险会越来越大。本文以人口老龄化为大背景,有效评估中国养老金支付能力,并且以维持养老金长期财务平衡为目的,提出可行性方案,将有利于减轻财政压力和负担,化解部分隐形债务,缩小资金缺口,提高养老金支付能力,促进中国养老保险制度可持续发展。
本文的主要任务是通过理论和实务研究,建立中国养老金支付能力模型,为提高中国养老金支付能力提供对策和建议。主要框架是：问题背景提出——相关研究述评——宏、微观影响因素分析——建立模型测算——结论与建议。
本文以研究提升养老金支付能力为逻辑中心,重点关注几个问题：第一,经济因素、非经济因素和养老保险制度内部因素对中国养老金支付能力的影响；第二,基于人口老龄化的大背景下,提高养老金支付能力的实证研究。围绕上述问题,本文除了绪论外,共涉及到四大部分：
第一部分,养老保险制度及支付能力的相关研究述评。
分别介绍了国内外相关养老保险制度及支付能力的经典研究。它们分别是养老保险制度变迁的生命周期假说、代际交叠模型等经典理论,养老保险制度与经济、与储蓄、与资本市场的关系,养老保险制度的统账结构以及养老保险基金公营还是私营的有关争论。
第二部分,影响养老金支付能力的环境因素分析。
包括影响养老金支付能力经济环境中的经济发展水平、通货膨胀、工资增长率等；非经济因素中的政府责任、城市化进程以及人口结构变化等；养老保险制度内部的养老保险管理体制、养老基金运营、养老金隐形债务等因素。
第三部分,养老金支付能力的实证研究。
测算将来中国入口数量规模、性别结构、年龄结构等,分析人口结构变化对养老金支付能力的影响。之后利用人口结构结论数据,建模测算基本养老保险资金和个人账户资金的收支情况,论证它们在将来是否有能力承担养老金支付。
第四部分,提高养老金支付能力的政策建议。
根据实证分析结果,提出针对性的改良措施。在短期内优化制度政策环境,建议延迟退休年龄,加快提高统筹层次,设立养老保险预算制度和清缴历史欠费,规范养老金征管等；在中期内提高养老基金效率,健全养老金财务管理,建立可持续养老金个人账户,多渠道化解历史债务,多元化投资养老保险基金和健全养老保险基金监督管理；在长期内提升国民经济实力。
综观全文,主要的创新之处可以归纳为两个方面：
一是从宏、微观角度全面分析影响养老金支付能力的各项因素。养老金支付能力受到宏观、微观环境和本身的政策制度制约。目前,对养老金支付能力环境进行全面分析的研究较少,本文从经济因素、非经济因素和养老保险制度内部因素入手,全方位地分析了影响养老金支付能力的因素及它们对支付能力的影响程度。经济因素和非经济因素属于外围环境对养老金支付能力的影响因素。经济因素对养老金支付能力的影响是不言而喻的,它的存在或变迁通过一定的中间变量,最终会对养老金支付能力产生不同程度的影响。政治因素、社会因素和法律因素也会在一定程度上对养老金支付能力产生作用,本文把它们归纳为非经济因素,研究其对养老金支付能力的影响。制度政策是影响养老金支付能力的内生因素,它对养老金支付产生的影响,主要是在制度设计、制度实施和制度保障等制度安排过程中产生的。从影响养老金支付能力的外生因素和内生因素进行研究,能够更加全面地评价中国养老金支付能力。
二是人口数量按照男性和女性进行分别处理,升级养老金支付能力模型。本文利用人口结构精算中较为成熟的队列预测法之同批人变化率法作为算法,从历次全国人口普查资料和1989年到2010年的中国人口统计年鉴中收集基础数据,计算得出未来50年的中国城镇人口结构数据,包括年龄结构、性别结构等方面。作为实证研究养老金支付能力的基础数据。
建立中国养老金长期收支模型。细分人口结构,研究其对养老金支付能力的影响。本文在模型中摒弃以往研究中把人口总量作为人口因素研究参数,而对人口数据按照男性和女性数量进行分别处理,这更符合中国实际中男性和女性由于寿命和退休年龄的不同,对养老金支付的需求也是不同的现实,能够更准确地评估中国养老金支付水平。得出中国养老金短期内收支基本平衡,中期内收略低于支,长期内严重收不抵支的结论。
本文研究的不足之处可以归纳为三个方面：
一是本文所取数据均为城镇养老保险体系,并没有涉及农村养老保险体系,然而城镇养老保险仅为中国养老保险体系中的一个分支。人口老龄化和养老金支付能力在中国农村可能面临更为严峻的形势。所以实际上本文所预测的中国养老金支付能力要乐观于中国的实际情况。
二是在提高养老金支付能力的方案中,还存在多方面值得深入探讨和研究的问题。比如养老金替代率的问题,本文只是在建立模型中将其作为假设前提进行了规定,而并没有对其合理性作出判断。
三是针对养老保险制度环境限制养老金支付能力的因素中,有些因素只能定性分析而不能定量分析,比如,企业和个人诚信。囿于作者能力没能把它们纳入模型中进行量化分析。
The changes in a number of factors are challenging the traditional welfare states system, such as the aging population, the globalization of financial markets and the international competitive. At the beginning of1970s, because of the intergenerational contract challenge, almost all the population in the welfare states were facing with profound changes in the age structure. From the western theory of demographic transition, it is obviously that the development of industrialization, modernization and social economy led to the transition of population structure, it is result in the trend that the birth rate and death rate from high to low, these changes would inevitably led to the aging population. We can be deduced the aging population is the inevitable result of social economic development from the theory of demographic transition. The ratio of pension payment and pensioners will dramatically change within a few years. The population aging has become the most direct challenge of pension payment ability. Now the capital intensive industry and innovation economy enterprises occupy a dominant position in the world, employment opportunities concentrated in those efficient labors because of the structural unemployment all over the world. At the same time, the trend is the enterprise to increase other production data input to replace the increased manpower cost, which will make the labor market further small. From the social perspective, family welfare production will be reduced because of the family size has shrunk. It had confirmed the cross family relationships and associations between contacts have been greatly reduced in the United States and some European countries. Multiple backgrounds integrated, the burden of aged has been increasing gradually in the whole society.
Severing demographic and economic context of the development, China will encounter lots of issues in both macro and micro fields, such as the slowdown in economic growth, huge transition costs; those are definitely a huge challenge on the pension payment in near future. In a fairly long period, National basic pension insurance has to take the responsibility for China social pension. In one hand, China pension has to bear a huge historical stealth debt, in another hand, it has to be in charge of more pension requirements from aging population. The risk of pension payment ability will be bigger and bigger in future. The article evaluated the ability of China pension payment effectively under the background of aging population. In order to maintain long-term pension financial balance, the author proposed feasibility plan which will contribute to reduce financial stress and burden, resolve a part of stealth debt, narrow the funding gap, and improve the ability of pension payment. It will be helpful to promote the sustainable development of China pension system.
In order to alleviate the enterprises'burden and construct a harmonious society, China not complete copy foreign models in the endowment insurance reform. It effectively combined the pay-as-you-go and the accumulation systems according to Chinese national condition. It founded united accounts of social endowment insurance system in China, the main purpose is to deal with the risk of population aging and reflect the mutual aid. It can improve the ability of endowment insurance payment although there are still many immature places. However, both in the macrocosmic and microcosmic field, China still face a lot of problems, such as economic growth slowed and the huge transition cost. It is very necessary to research the capability of Chinese pension payment and then put forward to measures.
The purpose of this paper is to create a model based on the research of theory and current situation to makes suggestions on improving the payment ability of China pension. The main frame is:background issue posing-relative research-analysis of macroµ factors-model calculation-Conclusions and recommendations.
The article centered on the research of improving payment ability of pension, and focused on couple of issues:First, the impact from economic&non-economic external factors and internal factors of the pension insurance system; second, the empirical research to improve the payment ability of pension based on context of aging population. This paper probed into above-mentioned issues with4parts excluding introduction:
The first part, research review on pension system and payment ability.
Introduced the study of classic theory in domestic and overseas pension insurance system and payment ability. They are the Life Cycle Hypothesis of the pension system changes, intergenerational overlap model, the relationship among the pension insurance system and the economy, savings, and capital markets, account structure of pension insurance system and the controversy of managing pension insurance fund in public or private.
Second part, the analysis on environmental factors impacting the payment ability of pension.
Including following factors, economic factors-the level of economic development, inflation, wage growth rate; noneconomic factors-government responsibility, urbanization and population structure changes; internal factors-management system in pension insurance system, pension fund operations, pension stealth debt, and other factors.
Third part, the empirical research of the pension payment ability.
Estimates of future population size, sex structure, age structure, analysis of the pension payments impact caused by the changes in population structure. And then, created model based on the demographic conclusions data to estimate the basic old-age insurance funds and personal funds in the account balance of payments situation, demonstrated and evaluated the ability to assume the pension payments in the future.
The fourth part, policy recommendations to improve the pension ability of payment.
According to the empirical results, proposed targeted improvement measures. Optimize the system policy environment in the short term, it is recommended to delay the retirement age, to accelerate improvements in the overall level, the establishment of the pension budget system and the settlement of historical arrears, and regulating pension funds collection; in the medium term to improve the pension fund efficiency and improve the financial management of pension funds, to establish a sustainable pension personal accounts, resolve the historic debt in multiple channels, diversification of investment and pension insurance funds and improve the pension insurance fund supervision and management; enhance the national economy in the long term.
Making a comprehensive view to the whole dissertation, the major innovations can be consolidated as two points:
First, a comprehensive analysis of the various factors that affect the ability of pension payments in both macroµ view. Pension payments ability is impacted by macro-and micro-environment external factors and their own policies and systems constraints. At present, there are few of comprehensive analysis of research on pension payment ability, this article started from economic&noneconomic factors and internal factors, analyzed those factors and their effect on ability of payment. Economic and non-economic factors are external ones. There is no denying the fact that the impacts from economic factors is great, its impacts on pension payments varied with its presence or transition through the intermediate variables. Political, social and legal factors is impacting the pension payment ability more or less, the paper concluded those as non-economic factors, to study its impact on the ability of pension payments. The system policy is endogenous factors affect the ability of pension payments to its pension payments, the impact is mainly generated in the institutional arrangements of the system design, system implementation and system security. It is more comprehensive to evaluate the ability of pension payments from both external and internal factors.
Second, Population was treated separately by gender, and upgraded the model of ability of pension payment. Based on the base data from National census and China Population Statistics Yearbook(1989-2010), the paper leverage the maturing algorithm of change rate of same group (one of cohort-component method) to calculate the urban population structure in next50years, including age structure, gender structure. Those are used as basic data for empirical research of pension payments ability.
The author established long-term pension income and expenditure model, subdivided population structure, and researched the impact on the ability of pension payments. In this paper, author abandoned the previous studies which utilized total population as the population factor parameters, and processed population data in accordance with the number of men and women, it better conform to the China reality that requirement of pension payments is different as life time and retirement age are different between men and women, thus, it was able to more accurately evaluate the level of pension payments. The conclusion of the article is Chinese pension short-term balance of payments; in the medium term income slightly below the branch; in long-term serious income over expenditure
The inadequacies of this study can be summarized in three aspects:
First, data in this paper are from urban pension system, and don't involve the rural pension system; however, urban pension insurance is only a branch of pension system in China. Aging population and ability of pension payment could face more severe situation in rural China. Therefore, in fact this forecast on the ability of pension payment should be more optimistic compared with the actual situation in China.
Second, in the program to improve the ability of pension payment, there are a number of factors which are worthy of depth study and research. Such as pension replacement rate, which is only be provided as and assumption in this article to build the model, whose rationality isn't made any judgments.
Third, regarding the pension system environment factors that limit the payment of pension, some of these were only qualitative analysis but not quantitative analysis, for example, businesses and personal integrity. Limited by the capacity of author, those were not included in the model for quantitative analysis.
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