资本项目下人民币可兑换风险评估与防范策略
|
摘要
人民币完全可兑换无疑是中国未来金融改革的一个重要战略目标，也是长期以来的一个既定目标。早在1993年，党的十四届三中全会通过的《中共中央关于建立社会主义市场经济体制若干问题的决定》就提出“逐步使人民币成为可兑换货币”；2005年，党的十六届五中全会通过的“十一五规划”再次提出“逐步实现人民币资本项目可兑换”；2008年，国务院修订通过的《中华人民共和国外汇管理条例》为未来进一步改革明确了方向——继续稳步推进资本项目开放，实现人民币完全可兑换。在具体政策层面，自2002年特别是2005年7月汇改以来，资本项目开放进程重新提速。根据国家外汇管理局的统计，自2002年至2008年，调整涉及资本项目外汇管理的法规共有57个，其中涉及管制程度加强的17个，放松的40个。经过最近一段时间的改革，较多限制和严格管制的项目越来越少，中国严格的资本管制时代已经结束，较为开放的格局初步形成。
与改革的渐进性所呈现的难易程度相一致，剩下的资本项目开放的难度和风险也在不断提高，项目的关联性和影响程度远大于目前已经开放的类别，未来实现资本项目完全可兑换进程是否平稳还存在相当的不确定性。开放资本项目会有多大风险？什么样的开放策略才能将风险降至最低？如何才能有效控制甚至消除这些风险？回答这三个问题对进一步加速推进资本项目自由化的中国而言，重要性是不言而喻的。
本文先从资本项目下货币可兑换的必然性入题，明确研究的现实性和战略性，阐释研究的背景和意义；然后通过国别经验和实证研究，对资本项目下货币可兑换的风险展开全面分析，梳理资本项目开放的各种风险以及它们形成的原因，并对资本项目可兑换与金融危机的关系进行历史回顾性探讨；再次具体从最小的资本项目分类出发探讨最优的开放策略和顺序，以及相应的风险控制措施，以提高理论对实践的指导能力；最后作为风险控制的根本手段，研究资本项目下货币可兑换进程中的风险监测和危机应急机制建设。
在实证研究部分，本文首先以一个“可兑换促进经济增长”的计量回归模型从侧面论证资本项目下货币可兑换的必然性；然后利用一个存在“风险转移”、“信贷不确定”的数理模型，论证资本项目下货币可兑换可能通过信贷可得性增加风险的机制；最后在风险预警实证部分，以三个指标分析法模型评估中国金融安全的动态变化，分析资本项目下货币可兑换对金融安全的实际影响效果，同时又以状态转换模型对中国金融安全中期预测的可行性进行分析。
本文认为，人民币完全可兑换是随着经济社会发展必然的演进目标，其中伴随着风险甚至可能导致危机的产生，也正因为如此，辨识风险来源，有计划地采取适当可兑换顺序、妥善构架严格的开放风险应对措施，建立全面的风险监测体系和危机应急机制才能有效控制风险，保证可兑换的顺利推进，并最终实现国民经济的福利最大化。
There is no denying that the liberation of capital account will be one of the mostsignificant strategic goals in financial revolution of China in the21stcentury, which isalso a long established goal. Back in1993,"Resolutions of the CPC CentralCommittee on Major Issues regarding the establishment of a socialist market economicsystem" adopted by the Third Plenary Session of the14th Central Committee proposed"gradually make the RMB a convertible currency"; in2005"Eleventh Five-Year Plan"adopted by the Fifth Plenary Session of the16th Central Committee again put forwardthe" Gradually realize capital account liberation"; in2008,"PRC foreign exchangeregulations" revised by the State Council set a clear direction for further reform-continue to steadily promote capital account opening and liberation. In particularpolicy level, since2002, especially the exchange reform in July2005, the openingprocess of the capital account has been re-acceleration. Between2002and2008,according to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange statistics, a total of57regulations involving foreign exchange control of capital account had been adjusted,among which,17was to strengthen the control and40to relax the control. After therecent reform, projects with strict restrictions are becoming increasingly less. The eraof strict control over capital account has ended; a more open pattern has been basicallyformed.
The same as the degree of difficulty presented by gradual reform, the difficultiesand risks of the remaining capital account items are also rising; the items’ relevanceand influence have been much greater than the ones which have already been opened.There is considerable uncertainty for the stability of capital account liberation in thefuture. What is the magnitude of risk to push forwards capital account liberation? Whatkind of open-up strategies will keep the risks lowest? How to control and eliminaterelated risks effectively? These three issues are very important, especially for Chinawho is facing the upcoming acceleration of capital account liberation.
This article discusses the necessity of capital account liberation first, explicit thestrategic and reality of the research, and explain the background and significance ofthis paper. Then we carry out country experiences and empirical studies; start acomprehensive analysis from the risk of capital account liberation. First of all, we sortthe various risks and their causes of capital account liberation. Second, we study the relationship between capital account liberation and financial crisis from a historicalretrospective. Then, we carefully investigate the optimal development strategy,opening sequence and corresponding risk control measures from the smallest category.By doing so, we hope to enhance the ability to guide practice. As a fundamental meansof risk control, the fourth step, we study the risk monitoring and crisis responsemechanisms in the process of capital account liberation.
As for the empirical study of this paper, we illustrated the inevitability of capitalaccount liberation using an econometric model; the risk transmission mechanism ofboosting capital account liberation and the increasing availability of credit by adoptinga math model. In risk early warning analyses,3indicator based models were used toanalyze the dynamic change of domestic financial security condition, and the realeffects capital account liberation imposed on the overall economy and financial system.State transition model was placed to illustrate the feasibility of forecasting themid-term financial security condition.
This paper argues that the capital account liberation is an inevitable goal with theevolution of economic and social development, and the risks associated with theliberation may even lead to crisis. Because of this, therefore, identifying the sources ofrisk, planning to take proper opening sequence and response measures, establishing acomprehensive risk monitoring system and crisis prevention mechanism couldeffectively control risks and ensure a smooth progress of capital account liberation,and, ultimately, maximize the welfare of the economy.
与改革的渐进性所呈现的难易程度相一致，剩下的资本项目开放的难度和风险也在不断提高，项目的关联性和影响程度远大于目前已经开放的类别，未来实现资本项目完全可兑换进程是否平稳还存在相当的不确定性。开放资本项目会有多大风险？什么样的开放策略才能将风险降至最低？如何才能有效控制甚至消除这些风险？回答这三个问题对进一步加速推进资本项目自由化的中国而言，重要性是不言而喻的。
本文先从资本项目下货币可兑换的必然性入题，明确研究的现实性和战略性，阐释研究的背景和意义；然后通过国别经验和实证研究，对资本项目下货币可兑换的风险展开全面分析，梳理资本项目开放的各种风险以及它们形成的原因，并对资本项目可兑换与金融危机的关系进行历史回顾性探讨；再次具体从最小的资本项目分类出发探讨最优的开放策略和顺序，以及相应的风险控制措施，以提高理论对实践的指导能力；最后作为风险控制的根本手段，研究资本项目下货币可兑换进程中的风险监测和危机应急机制建设。
在实证研究部分，本文首先以一个“可兑换促进经济增长”的计量回归模型从侧面论证资本项目下货币可兑换的必然性；然后利用一个存在“风险转移”、“信贷不确定”的数理模型，论证资本项目下货币可兑换可能通过信贷可得性增加风险的机制；最后在风险预警实证部分，以三个指标分析法模型评估中国金融安全的动态变化，分析资本项目下货币可兑换对金融安全的实际影响效果，同时又以状态转换模型对中国金融安全中期预测的可行性进行分析。
本文认为，人民币完全可兑换是随着经济社会发展必然的演进目标，其中伴随着风险甚至可能导致危机的产生，也正因为如此，辨识风险来源，有计划地采取适当可兑换顺序、妥善构架严格的开放风险应对措施，建立全面的风险监测体系和危机应急机制才能有效控制风险，保证可兑换的顺利推进，并最终实现国民经济的福利最大化。
There is no denying that the liberation of capital account will be one of the mostsignificant strategic goals in financial revolution of China in the21stcentury, which isalso a long established goal. Back in1993,"Resolutions of the CPC CentralCommittee on Major Issues regarding the establishment of a socialist market economicsystem" adopted by the Third Plenary Session of the14th Central Committee proposed"gradually make the RMB a convertible currency"; in2005"Eleventh Five-Year Plan"adopted by the Fifth Plenary Session of the16th Central Committee again put forwardthe" Gradually realize capital account liberation"; in2008,"PRC foreign exchangeregulations" revised by the State Council set a clear direction for further reform-continue to steadily promote capital account opening and liberation. In particularpolicy level, since2002, especially the exchange reform in July2005, the openingprocess of the capital account has been re-acceleration. Between2002and2008,according to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange statistics, a total of57regulations involving foreign exchange control of capital account had been adjusted,among which,17was to strengthen the control and40to relax the control. After therecent reform, projects with strict restrictions are becoming increasingly less. The eraof strict control over capital account has ended; a more open pattern has been basicallyformed.
The same as the degree of difficulty presented by gradual reform, the difficultiesand risks of the remaining capital account items are also rising; the items’ relevanceand influence have been much greater than the ones which have already been opened.There is considerable uncertainty for the stability of capital account liberation in thefuture. What is the magnitude of risk to push forwards capital account liberation? Whatkind of open-up strategies will keep the risks lowest? How to control and eliminaterelated risks effectively? These three issues are very important, especially for Chinawho is facing the upcoming acceleration of capital account liberation.
This article discusses the necessity of capital account liberation first, explicit thestrategic and reality of the research, and explain the background and significance ofthis paper. Then we carry out country experiences and empirical studies; start acomprehensive analysis from the risk of capital account liberation. First of all, we sortthe various risks and their causes of capital account liberation. Second, we study the relationship between capital account liberation and financial crisis from a historicalretrospective. Then, we carefully investigate the optimal development strategy,opening sequence and corresponding risk control measures from the smallest category.By doing so, we hope to enhance the ability to guide practice. As a fundamental meansof risk control, the fourth step, we study the risk monitoring and crisis responsemechanisms in the process of capital account liberation.
As for the empirical study of this paper, we illustrated the inevitability of capitalaccount liberation using an econometric model; the risk transmission mechanism ofboosting capital account liberation and the increasing availability of credit by adoptinga math model. In risk early warning analyses,3indicator based models were used toanalyze the dynamic change of domestic financial security condition, and the realeffects capital account liberation imposed on the overall economy and financial system.State transition model was placed to illustrate the feasibility of forecasting themid-term financial security condition.
This paper argues that the capital account liberation is an inevitable goal with theevolution of economic and social development, and the risks associated with theliberation may even lead to crisis. Because of this, therefore, identifying the sources ofrisk, planning to take proper opening sequence and response measures, establishing acomprehensive risk monitoring system and crisis prevention mechanism couldeffectively control risks and ensure a smooth progress of capital account liberation,and, ultimately, maximize the welfare of the economy.
引文
[1]欧阳晓红,胡蓉萍.中国隐现资本项目开放路径.经济观察报,2009-07-17
[2]温建东.资本项目可兑换的内涵与外延.国际金融研究,2001,(7):12-14
[3]金荦.从国际经验分析中国实施资本管制的目标演变.中国金融,2004,(18):11-16
[4]管涛.资本项目可兑换的定义.经济社会体制比较,2001,(1):22-23
[5]曹凤岐,林敏仪.论人民币资本和金融项目可兑换.管理世界,2004,(2):5-7
[6]赵登峰.论人民币资本项目的可兑换.财经科学,2004,(5):29-31
[7] Quirk P, Evans O. Capital account convertibility: review of experience andimplications for IMF policies. IMF Occasional Paper. No.131, Washington D.C.,1995
[8]高鸿业.宏观经济学.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2007
[9]郑玉玲.1994-2006年中国资本项目开放度研究:[中国人民银行金融研究所硕士学位论文],北京:中国人民银行金融研究所,2007
[10]中国人民银行法.第一章第三条
[11]段文海.资本项目可兑换与经济增长相关性研究.特区经济,2005,(3):37-39
[12]刘克,王元龙.关于人民币资本项目可兑换的战略问题.国际金融研究,2006,(3):26-31
[13] Edwards S. Capital mobility and economic performance: are emerging economiesdifferent?. NBER Working Paper,2001, W8076
[14] Kalemli-Ozcan G, Sorensen A, Yosha V. Economic integration, industrialspecialization, and the asymmetry of macroeconomic fluctuations. Journal ofInternational Economics,2001,(5):43-67
[15] Klein M W, Olivei G. Capital account liberalization, financial depth and economicgrowth. Boston, Massachusetts: Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, TuftsUniversity,2000
[16] Alesina A, Grilli V, Milesi-Ferretti G M. The political economy of capital controls.NBER Working Paper,1993, W4353
[17] Grilli V, Milesi-Ferretti G M. Economic effects and structural determinants ofcapital controls. Staff Papers of International Monetary Fund,1995,42(3):517-551
[18] Rodrik D. Who needs capital-account convertibility? Harvard University StaffPapers. http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~drodrik/essay.pdf,2010-01-20
[19] Prasad E, Rogoff K, Wei S-J, Kose M A. Effects of financial globalisation ondeveloping countries: some empirical evidence. Economic and Political Weekly,2003,38(41):4319-4330
[20] Edison H J, Levine R, Ricci L, Slok T. International financial integration andeconomic growth. Journal of International Money and Finance,2002,21(6):749-776
[21] Kraay A. In search of the macroeconomic effects of capital account liberali-zation.World Bank Working Paper, http://citeseerx.ist. psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.12.7999&rep=rep1&type=pdf,1998-09-29
[22]李卫群.资本项目开放与经济增长研究的比较分析.国际贸易问题,2005,(8):19-24
[23]王锦慧,蓝发钦.资本项目开放促进中国经济增长的实证研究.上海金融,2007,(10):18-22
[24] De Mello L S H. AND/OR graph representation of assembly plans. AC Sande-rson-IEEE TRANS. ROBOT. AUTOM. https://www.aaai.org/Library/AAAI/1986/aaai86-184.php,1990
[25] Reisen H, Soto M. Which types of capital inflows foster developing countrygrowth? International Finance,2001,4(1):1-14
[26] Prasad E S, Rumbaugh T, Wang Q. Putting the Cart Before t-he Horse? CapitalAccount Liberalization and Exchange Rate Flexibility in China. IMF PolicyDiscussion Paper No.05/1. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers. cfm?abstract_id=701273,2011-02-27
[27] Klein M W. Capital Account Openness and the Varieties of Growth E-xperience.NBER Working Paper No.W9500, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers. cfm?abstract_id=381320,2011-03-02
[28]孙佳钧,何家宏.金融发展与经济增长:基于资本帐户视角的实证研究.现代管理科学,2009,(1):4-6
[29]易纲.中国金融资产结构分析及政策含义.经济研究,1996,(12):1-8
[30]杨晓华.我国金融发展与经济增长关系的实证分析.统计教育,2005,(7):10-13
[31]钱颖一.中国经济体制改革的两个观察.经济管理文摘,2008,(3):1-2
[32]陆磊.信息结构、利益集团与公共政策:当前金融监管制度选择中的理论问题.经济研究,2000,(12):3-10
[33]陈雨露.作为国家竞争战略的货币国际化：美元的经验证据——兼论人民币的国际化问题.经济研究,2005,(2):31-39
[34]陈利敏.资本流动及对我国就业的影响.经济体制改革,2002,(5):99-104
[35]李扬,殷剑峰.开放经济的稳定性和经济自由化的次序.经济研究,2000,(11):13-23
[36]殷剑峰.汇率制度与跨国资本流动管理的配合.经济研究,1999,(12):60-69
[37]奚君羊.资本流动对人民币汇率的影响.国际金融研究,2002,(2):13-16
[38]王国刚.资本账户开放与中国金融改革.北京:社会科学文献出版社,2003,77-78
[39]姜波克.国际金融.北京:高等教育出版社,2004,129-130
[40]许经勇.论输入型通贷膨胀与金融危机.求索,1996,(2):23-24
[41]李华民.金融开放格局下的外源性金融危机:危机源甄别及其政策含义.中国软科学,2007,(3):34-36
[42]胡援成,王辉,朴明治.中国资本账户开放：30年回顾与思考.当代财经,2009,(2):1-2
[43]刘鹏,范彬.开放资本项目与提高汇率灵活性的次序——一个货币政策效应角度的考察.金融经济,2008,(20):17-21
[44]郑小萍,肖雯,王丽芳.我国外汇储备变动对货币政策的影响.中央财经大学学报,2008,(4):27-32
[45]易纲.当前宏观经济金融形势与货币政策.金融发展研究,2008,(3):23-25
[46]金中夏.从中国视角看“开放经济的三元困境”.国际经济评论,2008,(1):39-45
[47]龙向东.从我国国际收支误差与遗漏看资本外逃.中国人民大学学报,1999,(2):43-45
[48]周宇.中国资本项目开放政策调整的动因及内容.世界经济研究,2008,(10):36-39
[49]林玲,葛玉辉.基于库里模型的越南危机分析与启示.世界经济研究,2008,(10):22-29
[50]周宇.中国资本项目开放政策调整的动因及内容.世界经济研究,2008,(10):13-16
[51]卞志村.论我国货币替代的程度及影响因素.河南金融管理干部学院学报,2003,(1):7-9
[52]胡景芸.中国货币替代决定因素的实证分析.当代财经,2003,(7):9-14
[53]卜亚.货币替代——中国资本账户开放进程中的考验与政策选择.数量经济技术经济研究,2005,(3):23-26
[54]李强.中国货币替代现象的VEC模型：1994-2005.当代经济科学,2007,(1):8-15
[55] McKinnon R I. Money and capital in economic development. BrookingsInstitution, Washington, D C,1973
[56] Krugman P R. Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and internationaltrade. Journal International Economics,1979,(9):469-479
[57]曲昭光.资本自由化与金融危机关系的分析.国际金融研究,2001,(11):10-16
[58] Caprio. Gerard Jr., and Daniela Klingebiel. Bank Insolvencies: Cross-CountryExperience. Policy Research Working Paper1620. World Bank. Washington, D.C,1996,
[59]安建国.评拉美债务危机中的资本反向流动.世界经济,1985,(4):7-15
[60]赵长华.拉美国家在外债问题上的经验教训.外国经济与管理,1986,(3):17-20
[61]尤安山.拉美债务危机：原因及对策.拉丁美洲研究,1986,(1):11-14
[62]拉里,李莉.债务危机的形成及其解决前景.西南金融,1990,(4):5-15
[63]恩里克.拉丁美洲从金融危机中吸取的惨痛教训.拉丁美洲研究,2005,(6):3-16
[64]李善民,陈小蓓.资本项目自由兑换的“平稳过渡模型”的初步构想.中山大学学报(社会科学版),1999,(3):35-37
[65]翁克力.试析加入北美自由贸易协定的墨西哥经济.特区经济,1995,(7):22-29
[66]江时学.论1994年墨西哥金融危机.世界历史,2002,(6):49-56
[67]曲凤杰.韩国金融开放的经验和教训.新金融,2006,(8):31-33
[68]金英姬.20世纪80~90年代的韩国金融体制改革——金融自由化.当代韩国,2001,(1):22-26
[69]詹姆斯,孙婷.韩国的金融自由化与产业危机.国外理论动态,2003,(10):25-30
[70]周先平.韩国金融自由化的政治经济学分析.当代亚太,2005,(1):5-10
[71]宫占奎,冯兴艳.韩国金融账户自由化的经济效应研究.东北亚论坛,2006,(3):14-21
[72]晓阳.韩国金融危机浅析.亚非纵横,1998,(1):15-19
[73]王沅,朱隽.韩国经济危机研究.金融研究,1998,(1):19-24
[74]金熙成.韩国与泰国的金融危机比较谈——兼谈东亚经济模式的命运问题.东北亚论坛,1998,(1):16-22
[75]杨志平.韩国金融危机综合分析.价格月刊,1998,(2):9-14
[76]姚凯.金融自由化与发展中国家的经济发展.深圳大学学报(人文社会科学版),1995,(3):31-37
[77]陈杰裕,余芳睿,温洁洁.金融自由化能提高储蓄率吗?——来自三个发展中国家的实证.南方金融,2008,(6):8-16
[78]吴崇伯.印度尼西亚金融自由化试析.世界经济,1996,(9):7-14
[79]沈联涛.十年回望东南亚金融危机.财经(专刊),2007
[80]张荔.论过度的金融自由化对金融体系脆弱性的助推作用.经济评论,2001,(1):125-128
[81]惠誉.银行系统性风险报告,2008
[82]冰岛统计局.冰岛统计年鉴,2007
[83]忻华.解读冰岛金融危机:演进历程、结构特征与形成机理.世界经济研究,2009,(6):22-25
[84]王家强.冰岛金融危机的起因、教训与启示.中国货币市场,2008,(12):31-35
[85]吴克鲁,杨慧馨.内资“出海”的冰岛模式.中国外汇,2007,(10):6-9
[86]朱民.改变未来的金融危机.北京:中国金融出版社,2009
[87]刘燕霄,钟华君.中国资本项目开放的利益和风险.北方经济,2009,(4):26-29
[88]王东风.国外金融脆弱性理论研究综述.国外社会科学,2007,(5):16-22
[89] Kregel J A. Margins of safety and weight of the argument in generating financialfragility. Journal of Economic Issues,1997,31(2):543-548
[90] Yoshitomi M, ADB Staff. Post-crisis development paradigms in Asia. AsianDevelopment Bank Institute,2003
[91]王曙光.中国经济转轨进程中的金融自由化.经济科学,2003,(5):23-27
[92]孙明春.加强对国际资本流动的宏观管理.国际金融研究,1997,(2):15-19
[93]刘文.如何防止“过度借贷综合症”.国际金融研究,1997,(3):9-13
[94] Allen F, Gale D. Bubbles and crises. The Economic Journal,2000,(1):236-255
[95]王元龙.中国金融安全论.北京:中国金融出版社,2003
[96]雷家啸.国家经济安全理论与方法.北京:经济科学出版社,2000
[97]刘红红.资本外逃的原因、后果分析.经济师.1999,(3):8-14
[98]龙向东.从我国国际收支误差与遗漏看资本外逃.中国人民大学学报,1999,(2):38-41
[99]张为黎.我国利用外资中的资本外逃分析.金融与经济,1999,(8):7-13
[100]万洁平.对中国资本外逃的分析思考.经济与管理,1999,(5):11-18
[101]庄芮.试析中国的资本外逃.世界经济研究,2000,(4):17-21
[102]任惠.中国资本外逃的规模测算和对策分析.经济研究,2001,(11):35-41
[103]李晓峰.资本外逃对中国经济影响的实证分析.金融研究,2003,(12):24-31
[104]王世成,刘伟.政府外债项目效益审计评价指标体系探析.中国审计,2007,(23):5-13
[105]张光华.资本项目可兑换的顺序分析.南方金融,2000,(10):25-31
[106]吴立振.资本项目对外开放顺序的国际经验及对中国的启示.天津经济,2007,(10):29-32
[107]王信.对外负债结构与国内制度:中国引进外资为何以FDI为主.世界经济,2007,(9):9-14
[108]叶耀明,吴建伟.关于FDI大量流入后潜在风险的理性思考.财贸研究,2003,(5):26-33
[109]叶耀明,高平平.外国直接投资大量流入对我国国际收支的影响分析.上海金融,2003,(7):23-27
[110]夏京文,付景新.我国FDI的利用及其金融风险分析.工业技术经济,2002,(1):17-21
[111]周思聪. FDI大量流入金融风险分析及应对策略.证券导刊,2005,(6):4-11
[112]黄晓萍.全球化视野下中国QDII现状分析.证券市场导报,2008,(8):39-43
[113]刘达. QDII监管研究.宏观经济研究,2009,(7):36-32
[114]何雯雯,曹海军. QDII在中国的背景、现状和展望.经济师,2008,(7):45-49
[115]郝波. QFII制度安排与我国金融自由化.金融与经济,2003,(2):27-35
[116]王群. QFII制度与中国证券市场.中央财经大学学报,2003,(1):38-41
[117]丁洪.中信泰富外汇衍生品投资亏损案例分析与启示.南方金融,2009,(3):48-56
[118]纪宝成,刘元春.论大规模企业盲目海外上市的缺失.中国人民大学学报,2006,(5):56-62
[119]阙紫康,刘钊.我国创新型中小企业赴美上市情况分析.证券市场导报,2008,(7):15-20
[120]肖文,林娜.国外金融危机预测模型评介.经济科学,1999,(1):119-123
[121]唐旭,张伟.论建立中国金融危机预警系统.经济学动态,2002,(6):31-37
[122]刘志强.金融危机预警指标体系研究.世界经济,1999,(4):17-23
[123]陈彪如,冯文伟.经济全球化与中国金融开放.上海:上海人民出版社,2002
[124]方洁.发展中国家银行危机研究.中国经济出版社,2002
[125]张瀛,王浣尘,张云飞.基于P-S方法的金融危机预测系统构建与应用.上海交通大学学报,2005,(3):7-12
[126]陈卫华,张睿.基于“可能—满意度”法的金融危机预警系统的构建与应用.国际金融研究,2007,(4):23-26
[127]Edison Hali J. Do indicators of financial crises work? an evaluation of earlywarning system. Federal Reserve Board of Governors, International FinanceDiscussion Papers, No.675,2000,(7):1-74
[128]Jeanne O, Masson P. Currency Crises, Sunspots and Markov-switching regimes.Journal of International Economics,2000,(4):327-350
[129]Abiad A. Early warning systems for currency crises: a survey and a regime-switching approach. IMF Working Paper,03/32,2003
[130]张伟.体制转换模型能预测货币危机吗？经济研究,2004,(7):18-26
[131]世界银行.1985年世界发展报告.世界银行,1985
[132]Dooley M P. Capital flight: a response to differences in financial risks.International Monetary Fund,1988,(9):422-436
[133]周建军.国际游资与中国房地产价格波动.社会科学战线,2007,(3):11-15
[2]温建东.资本项目可兑换的内涵与外延.国际金融研究,2001,(7):12-14
[3]金荦.从国际经验分析中国实施资本管制的目标演变.中国金融,2004,(18):11-16
[4]管涛.资本项目可兑换的定义.经济社会体制比较,2001,(1):22-23
[5]曹凤岐,林敏仪.论人民币资本和金融项目可兑换.管理世界,2004,(2):5-7
[6]赵登峰.论人民币资本项目的可兑换.财经科学,2004,(5):29-31
[7] Quirk P, Evans O. Capital account convertibility: review of experience andimplications for IMF policies. IMF Occasional Paper. No.131, Washington D.C.,1995
[8]高鸿业.宏观经济学.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2007
[9]郑玉玲.1994-2006年中国资本项目开放度研究:[中国人民银行金融研究所硕士学位论文],北京:中国人民银行金融研究所,2007
[10]中国人民银行法.第一章第三条
[11]段文海.资本项目可兑换与经济增长相关性研究.特区经济,2005,(3):37-39
[12]刘克,王元龙.关于人民币资本项目可兑换的战略问题.国际金融研究,2006,(3):26-31
[13] Edwards S. Capital mobility and economic performance: are emerging economiesdifferent?. NBER Working Paper,2001, W8076
[14] Kalemli-Ozcan G, Sorensen A, Yosha V. Economic integration, industrialspecialization, and the asymmetry of macroeconomic fluctuations. Journal ofInternational Economics,2001,(5):43-67
[15] Klein M W, Olivei G. Capital account liberalization, financial depth and economicgrowth. Boston, Massachusetts: Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, TuftsUniversity,2000
[16] Alesina A, Grilli V, Milesi-Ferretti G M. The political economy of capital controls.NBER Working Paper,1993, W4353
[17] Grilli V, Milesi-Ferretti G M. Economic effects and structural determinants ofcapital controls. Staff Papers of International Monetary Fund,1995,42(3):517-551
[18] Rodrik D. Who needs capital-account convertibility? Harvard University StaffPapers. http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~drodrik/essay.pdf,2010-01-20
[19] Prasad E, Rogoff K, Wei S-J, Kose M A. Effects of financial globalisation ondeveloping countries: some empirical evidence. Economic and Political Weekly,2003,38(41):4319-4330
[20] Edison H J, Levine R, Ricci L, Slok T. International financial integration andeconomic growth. Journal of International Money and Finance,2002,21(6):749-776
[21] Kraay A. In search of the macroeconomic effects of capital account liberali-zation.World Bank Working Paper, http://citeseerx.ist. psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.12.7999&rep=rep1&type=pdf,1998-09-29
[22]李卫群.资本项目开放与经济增长研究的比较分析.国际贸易问题,2005,(8):19-24
[23]王锦慧,蓝发钦.资本项目开放促进中国经济增长的实证研究.上海金融,2007,(10):18-22
[24] De Mello L S H. AND/OR graph representation of assembly plans. AC Sande-rson-IEEE TRANS. ROBOT. AUTOM. https://www.aaai.org/Library/AAAI/1986/aaai86-184.php,1990
[25] Reisen H, Soto M. Which types of capital inflows foster developing countrygrowth? International Finance,2001,4(1):1-14
[26] Prasad E S, Rumbaugh T, Wang Q. Putting the Cart Before t-he Horse? CapitalAccount Liberalization and Exchange Rate Flexibility in China. IMF PolicyDiscussion Paper No.05/1. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers. cfm?abstract_id=701273,2011-02-27
[27] Klein M W. Capital Account Openness and the Varieties of Growth E-xperience.NBER Working Paper No.W9500, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers. cfm?abstract_id=381320,2011-03-02
[28]孙佳钧,何家宏.金融发展与经济增长:基于资本帐户视角的实证研究.现代管理科学,2009,(1):4-6
[29]易纲.中国金融资产结构分析及政策含义.经济研究,1996,(12):1-8
[30]杨晓华.我国金融发展与经济增长关系的实证分析.统计教育,2005,(7):10-13
[31]钱颖一.中国经济体制改革的两个观察.经济管理文摘,2008,(3):1-2
[32]陆磊.信息结构、利益集团与公共政策:当前金融监管制度选择中的理论问题.经济研究,2000,(12):3-10
[33]陈雨露.作为国家竞争战略的货币国际化：美元的经验证据——兼论人民币的国际化问题.经济研究,2005,(2):31-39
[34]陈利敏.资本流动及对我国就业的影响.经济体制改革,2002,(5):99-104
[35]李扬,殷剑峰.开放经济的稳定性和经济自由化的次序.经济研究,2000,(11):13-23
[36]殷剑峰.汇率制度与跨国资本流动管理的配合.经济研究,1999,(12):60-69
[37]奚君羊.资本流动对人民币汇率的影响.国际金融研究,2002,(2):13-16
[38]王国刚.资本账户开放与中国金融改革.北京:社会科学文献出版社,2003,77-78
[39]姜波克.国际金融.北京:高等教育出版社,2004,129-130
[40]许经勇.论输入型通贷膨胀与金融危机.求索,1996,(2):23-24
[41]李华民.金融开放格局下的外源性金融危机:危机源甄别及其政策含义.中国软科学,2007,(3):34-36
[42]胡援成,王辉,朴明治.中国资本账户开放：30年回顾与思考.当代财经,2009,(2):1-2
[43]刘鹏,范彬.开放资本项目与提高汇率灵活性的次序——一个货币政策效应角度的考察.金融经济,2008,(20):17-21
[44]郑小萍,肖雯,王丽芳.我国外汇储备变动对货币政策的影响.中央财经大学学报,2008,(4):27-32
[45]易纲.当前宏观经济金融形势与货币政策.金融发展研究,2008,(3):23-25
[46]金中夏.从中国视角看“开放经济的三元困境”.国际经济评论,2008,(1):39-45
[47]龙向东.从我国国际收支误差与遗漏看资本外逃.中国人民大学学报,1999,(2):43-45
[48]周宇.中国资本项目开放政策调整的动因及内容.世界经济研究,2008,(10):36-39
[49]林玲,葛玉辉.基于库里模型的越南危机分析与启示.世界经济研究,2008,(10):22-29
[50]周宇.中国资本项目开放政策调整的动因及内容.世界经济研究,2008,(10):13-16
[51]卞志村.论我国货币替代的程度及影响因素.河南金融管理干部学院学报,2003,(1):7-9
[52]胡景芸.中国货币替代决定因素的实证分析.当代财经,2003,(7):9-14
[53]卜亚.货币替代——中国资本账户开放进程中的考验与政策选择.数量经济技术经济研究,2005,(3):23-26
[54]李强.中国货币替代现象的VEC模型：1994-2005.当代经济科学,2007,(1):8-15
[55] McKinnon R I. Money and capital in economic development. BrookingsInstitution, Washington, D C,1973
[56] Krugman P R. Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and internationaltrade. Journal International Economics,1979,(9):469-479
[57]曲昭光.资本自由化与金融危机关系的分析.国际金融研究,2001,(11):10-16
[58] Caprio. Gerard Jr., and Daniela Klingebiel. Bank Insolvencies: Cross-CountryExperience. Policy Research Working Paper1620. World Bank. Washington, D.C,1996,
[59]安建国.评拉美债务危机中的资本反向流动.世界经济,1985,(4):7-15
[60]赵长华.拉美国家在外债问题上的经验教训.外国经济与管理,1986,(3):17-20
[61]尤安山.拉美债务危机：原因及对策.拉丁美洲研究,1986,(1):11-14
[62]拉里,李莉.债务危机的形成及其解决前景.西南金融,1990,(4):5-15
[63]恩里克.拉丁美洲从金融危机中吸取的惨痛教训.拉丁美洲研究,2005,(6):3-16
[64]李善民,陈小蓓.资本项目自由兑换的“平稳过渡模型”的初步构想.中山大学学报(社会科学版),1999,(3):35-37
[65]翁克力.试析加入北美自由贸易协定的墨西哥经济.特区经济,1995,(7):22-29
[66]江时学.论1994年墨西哥金融危机.世界历史,2002,(6):49-56
[67]曲凤杰.韩国金融开放的经验和教训.新金融,2006,(8):31-33
[68]金英姬.20世纪80~90年代的韩国金融体制改革——金融自由化.当代韩国,2001,(1):22-26
[69]詹姆斯,孙婷.韩国的金融自由化与产业危机.国外理论动态,2003,(10):25-30
[70]周先平.韩国金融自由化的政治经济学分析.当代亚太,2005,(1):5-10
[71]宫占奎,冯兴艳.韩国金融账户自由化的经济效应研究.东北亚论坛,2006,(3):14-21
[72]晓阳.韩国金融危机浅析.亚非纵横,1998,(1):15-19
[73]王沅,朱隽.韩国经济危机研究.金融研究,1998,(1):19-24
[74]金熙成.韩国与泰国的金融危机比较谈——兼谈东亚经济模式的命运问题.东北亚论坛,1998,(1):16-22
[75]杨志平.韩国金融危机综合分析.价格月刊,1998,(2):9-14
[76]姚凯.金融自由化与发展中国家的经济发展.深圳大学学报(人文社会科学版),1995,(3):31-37
[77]陈杰裕,余芳睿,温洁洁.金融自由化能提高储蓄率吗?——来自三个发展中国家的实证.南方金融,2008,(6):8-16
[78]吴崇伯.印度尼西亚金融自由化试析.世界经济,1996,(9):7-14
[79]沈联涛.十年回望东南亚金融危机.财经(专刊),2007
[80]张荔.论过度的金融自由化对金融体系脆弱性的助推作用.经济评论,2001,(1):125-128
[81]惠誉.银行系统性风险报告,2008
[82]冰岛统计局.冰岛统计年鉴,2007
[83]忻华.解读冰岛金融危机:演进历程、结构特征与形成机理.世界经济研究,2009,(6):22-25
[84]王家强.冰岛金融危机的起因、教训与启示.中国货币市场,2008,(12):31-35
[85]吴克鲁,杨慧馨.内资“出海”的冰岛模式.中国外汇,2007,(10):6-9
[86]朱民.改变未来的金融危机.北京:中国金融出版社,2009
[87]刘燕霄,钟华君.中国资本项目开放的利益和风险.北方经济,2009,(4):26-29
[88]王东风.国外金融脆弱性理论研究综述.国外社会科学,2007,(5):16-22
[89] Kregel J A. Margins of safety and weight of the argument in generating financialfragility. Journal of Economic Issues,1997,31(2):543-548
[90] Yoshitomi M, ADB Staff. Post-crisis development paradigms in Asia. AsianDevelopment Bank Institute,2003
[91]王曙光.中国经济转轨进程中的金融自由化.经济科学,2003,(5):23-27
[92]孙明春.加强对国际资本流动的宏观管理.国际金融研究,1997,(2):15-19
[93]刘文.如何防止“过度借贷综合症”.国际金融研究,1997,(3):9-13
[94] Allen F, Gale D. Bubbles and crises. The Economic Journal,2000,(1):236-255
[95]王元龙.中国金融安全论.北京:中国金融出版社,2003
[96]雷家啸.国家经济安全理论与方法.北京:经济科学出版社,2000
[97]刘红红.资本外逃的原因、后果分析.经济师.1999,(3):8-14
[98]龙向东.从我国国际收支误差与遗漏看资本外逃.中国人民大学学报,1999,(2):38-41
[99]张为黎.我国利用外资中的资本外逃分析.金融与经济,1999,(8):7-13
[100]万洁平.对中国资本外逃的分析思考.经济与管理,1999,(5):11-18
[101]庄芮.试析中国的资本外逃.世界经济研究,2000,(4):17-21
[102]任惠.中国资本外逃的规模测算和对策分析.经济研究,2001,(11):35-41
[103]李晓峰.资本外逃对中国经济影响的实证分析.金融研究,2003,(12):24-31
[104]王世成,刘伟.政府外债项目效益审计评价指标体系探析.中国审计,2007,(23):5-13
[105]张光华.资本项目可兑换的顺序分析.南方金融,2000,(10):25-31
[106]吴立振.资本项目对外开放顺序的国际经验及对中国的启示.天津经济,2007,(10):29-32
[107]王信.对外负债结构与国内制度:中国引进外资为何以FDI为主.世界经济,2007,(9):9-14
[108]叶耀明,吴建伟.关于FDI大量流入后潜在风险的理性思考.财贸研究,2003,(5):26-33
[109]叶耀明,高平平.外国直接投资大量流入对我国国际收支的影响分析.上海金融,2003,(7):23-27
[110]夏京文,付景新.我国FDI的利用及其金融风险分析.工业技术经济,2002,(1):17-21
[111]周思聪. FDI大量流入金融风险分析及应对策略.证券导刊,2005,(6):4-11
[112]黄晓萍.全球化视野下中国QDII现状分析.证券市场导报,2008,(8):39-43
[113]刘达. QDII监管研究.宏观经济研究,2009,(7):36-32
[114]何雯雯,曹海军. QDII在中国的背景、现状和展望.经济师,2008,(7):45-49
[115]郝波. QFII制度安排与我国金融自由化.金融与经济,2003,(2):27-35
[116]王群. QFII制度与中国证券市场.中央财经大学学报,2003,(1):38-41
[117]丁洪.中信泰富外汇衍生品投资亏损案例分析与启示.南方金融,2009,(3):48-56
[118]纪宝成,刘元春.论大规模企业盲目海外上市的缺失.中国人民大学学报,2006,(5):56-62
[119]阙紫康,刘钊.我国创新型中小企业赴美上市情况分析.证券市场导报,2008,(7):15-20
[120]肖文,林娜.国外金融危机预测模型评介.经济科学,1999,(1):119-123
[121]唐旭,张伟.论建立中国金融危机预警系统.经济学动态,2002,(6):31-37
[122]刘志强.金融危机预警指标体系研究.世界经济,1999,(4):17-23
[123]陈彪如,冯文伟.经济全球化与中国金融开放.上海:上海人民出版社,2002
[124]方洁.发展中国家银行危机研究.中国经济出版社,2002
[125]张瀛,王浣尘,张云飞.基于P-S方法的金融危机预测系统构建与应用.上海交通大学学报,2005,(3):7-12
[126]陈卫华,张睿.基于“可能—满意度”法的金融危机预警系统的构建与应用.国际金融研究,2007,(4):23-26
[127]Edison Hali J. Do indicators of financial crises work? an evaluation of earlywarning system. Federal Reserve Board of Governors, International FinanceDiscussion Papers, No.675,2000,(7):1-74
[128]Jeanne O, Masson P. Currency Crises, Sunspots and Markov-switching regimes.Journal of International Economics,2000,(4):327-350
[129]Abiad A. Early warning systems for currency crises: a survey and a regime-switching approach. IMF Working Paper,03/32,2003
[130]张伟.体制转换模型能预测货币危机吗？经济研究,2004,(7):18-26
[131]世界银行.1985年世界发展报告.世界银行,1985
[132]Dooley M P. Capital flight: a response to differences in financial risks.International Monetary Fund,1988,(9):422-436
[133]周建军.国际游资与中国房地产价格波动.社会科学战线,2007,(3):11-15