东亚地区垂直分工背景下中国贸易中的隐含碳分析
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摘要
在环境保护问题日益加深的今天,温室气体的排放问题的研究越来越受到学者的关注。在国际分工中,发达国家已经经历了工业化发展阶段,而进入重点发展低碳的服务业阶段,而将高排放的工业产业转移到发展中国家。同时以保护环境为借口对发展中国家的碳减排问题施压。中国在全球产业转移中承接了劳动密集型和能源密集型的制造业,同时中国还以煤为主要一次能源,因此在国际贸易规模日益扩大,贸易顺差不断增加的今天,遭遇到国际组织的强烈的减排压力。
2009年中国全部能源消耗形成的碳排放总量约为77.07亿吨,占全球总能源消耗排放量的25.4%。但是碳排放不能只看总的排放量,还要看到人均排放量和历史的累计排放量,还看要到国家的发展阶段。同时还要看到碳转移的情况。面对国际形势和压力,胡主席在哥本哈根气候变化大会前夕向世界做出了碳减排的承诺：到2020年我国单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40%～45%。作为被动方的发展中国家,无论你是否愿意,低碳都是一种必然趋势,与其逃避不如未雨绸缪,积极寻找低碳经济发展的解决方案。为自己争取主动的话语权。
本文主要通过对东亚贸易流向以及产业垂直专业化分工程度分析了中国在东亚垂直产业分工中的地位,以及这种地位对中国碳排放的影响。同时还分析了中国面临的减排形势。研究结果表明东亚垂直产业化程度较高,并且主要集中在资本密集型和能源密集型行业。并且处于垂直专业化分工产业链的附加值较低的一端,并且取代日本、韩国等成为东亚对美出口平台。本文对中国的碳排放净出口进行计算,发现中国存在大量的碳排放净出口。说明中国在国际贸易中为他国排放了较多的隐含碳,同时也因此中国能源和能效问题,引发“碳泄漏”。因此,本文认为中国应该尽快采取措施,提升中国在东亚产业结构分工中的地位,调整贸易结构,并提高能源使用效率,以实现国际国内的减排目标。
Nowadays, the greenhouse gas emission is obtained more and more attention from scholars. As we know, the developed countries has already accessed to the low-carbon advantages while the developing countries happened to coming into the stage of industrialization with high carbon emission.
The carbon emission of China's total energy consumption in 2009 is about 7.707 billion tons, accounting for 25.4% of the total carbon emissions from global energy consumption. However, the carbon emissions problem can not only consider about per capita emissions and cumulative emissions, but also about carbon emission transfer in the international trade. Facing the complicated situation, President Hu made a commitment to carbon reduction on the eve of the Copenhagen Climate Conference: China's 2020 carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will drop 40% to 45% than 2005. As a passive party, developing countries should take precautions to avoid high carbon emission whether you like.
This paper analyzes the trade flows and the extent of vertical specialization in East Asian. It also explains China's position in the vertical division of East Asian and the status on the impact of carbon emissions. The results show a high degree of vertical division in East Asian and mainly concentrated in the capital-intensive and energy-intensive industries. Besides, China took place of Japan and South Korea and became a platform of export for East Asia. We calculated the embodied carbon-emission in the China's international trade. It shows that some of China's carbon emission increasing is to reduce other countries' carbon emission reduction, which also leads to "carbon leakage". Therefore, this article argues that China should take measures as soon as possible to upgrade the industrial structure in East Asian division of China position. We also suggest that China should adjust the trade structure and increase energy efficiency in order to achieve emission reduction target.
2009年中国全部能源消耗形成的碳排放总量约为77.07亿吨,占全球总能源消耗排放量的25.4%。但是碳排放不能只看总的排放量,还要看到人均排放量和历史的累计排放量,还看要到国家的发展阶段。同时还要看到碳转移的情况。面对国际形势和压力,胡主席在哥本哈根气候变化大会前夕向世界做出了碳减排的承诺：到2020年我国单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40%～45%。作为被动方的发展中国家,无论你是否愿意,低碳都是一种必然趋势,与其逃避不如未雨绸缪,积极寻找低碳经济发展的解决方案。为自己争取主动的话语权。
本文主要通过对东亚贸易流向以及产业垂直专业化分工程度分析了中国在东亚垂直产业分工中的地位,以及这种地位对中国碳排放的影响。同时还分析了中国面临的减排形势。研究结果表明东亚垂直产业化程度较高,并且主要集中在资本密集型和能源密集型行业。并且处于垂直专业化分工产业链的附加值较低的一端,并且取代日本、韩国等成为东亚对美出口平台。本文对中国的碳排放净出口进行计算,发现中国存在大量的碳排放净出口。说明中国在国际贸易中为他国排放了较多的隐含碳,同时也因此中国能源和能效问题,引发“碳泄漏”。因此,本文认为中国应该尽快采取措施,提升中国在东亚产业结构分工中的地位,调整贸易结构,并提高能源使用效率,以实现国际国内的减排目标。
Nowadays, the greenhouse gas emission is obtained more and more attention from scholars. As we know, the developed countries has already accessed to the low-carbon advantages while the developing countries happened to coming into the stage of industrialization with high carbon emission.
The carbon emission of China's total energy consumption in 2009 is about 7.707 billion tons, accounting for 25.4% of the total carbon emissions from global energy consumption. However, the carbon emissions problem can not only consider about per capita emissions and cumulative emissions, but also about carbon emission transfer in the international trade. Facing the complicated situation, President Hu made a commitment to carbon reduction on the eve of the Copenhagen Climate Conference: China's 2020 carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will drop 40% to 45% than 2005. As a passive party, developing countries should take precautions to avoid high carbon emission whether you like.
This paper analyzes the trade flows and the extent of vertical specialization in East Asian. It also explains China's position in the vertical division of East Asian and the status on the impact of carbon emissions. The results show a high degree of vertical division in East Asian and mainly concentrated in the capital-intensive and energy-intensive industries. Besides, China took place of Japan and South Korea and became a platform of export for East Asia. We calculated the embodied carbon-emission in the China's international trade. It shows that some of China's carbon emission increasing is to reduce other countries' carbon emission reduction, which also leads to "carbon leakage". Therefore, this article argues that China should take measures as soon as possible to upgrade the industrial structure in East Asian division of China position. We also suggest that China should adjust the trade structure and increase energy efficiency in order to achieve emission reduction target.
引文
5参考Copeland, Brian R, and Taylor, M Scott. (1994) North-South Trade and the Environment [J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics
6 Dua, A. and D. Esty (1997) Sustaining the Asia Pacific Miracle:Economic Integration and Environmental Protection提出该现象。
7参考Porter, M.E.(1991) America's green strategy
8李璇等.浅析产业内贸易在中国的发展.云南财经大学学报：社会科学版[J].2009(4).pp43-45
10本处做近似处理用日韩和东盟数据来代表东亚国家,因为东盟主要贸易国家基本属于东亚国家,另一些国家的贸易数据较小,可以忽略不计。
11参考余炳雕,尹小平(2001),日本参与东亚国际分工战略目标、形式的调整与影响,吉林大学东北业研究院
12“苹果”虽然不是东亚品牌,但是其产品众多组成部分是在东业生产并且其分布符合垂直分工特点。
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[6]闫云凤,杨来科.中国出口隐含碳排放的影响因素分析[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2010,20(8)：48-52
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6 Dua, A. and D. Esty (1997) Sustaining the Asia Pacific Miracle:Economic Integration and Environmental Protection提出该现象。
7参考Porter, M.E.(1991) America's green strategy
8李璇等.浅析产业内贸易在中国的发展.云南财经大学学报：社会科学版[J].2009(4).pp43-45
10本处做近似处理用日韩和东盟数据来代表东亚国家,因为东盟主要贸易国家基本属于东亚国家,另一些国家的贸易数据较小,可以忽略不计。
11参考余炳雕,尹小平(2001),日本参与东亚国际分工战略目标、形式的调整与影响,吉林大学东北业研究院
12“苹果”虽然不是东亚品牌,但是其产品众多组成部分是在东业生产并且其分布符合垂直分工特点。
[1]马涛,陈家宽.中国工业产品国际贸易的污染足迹分析[J].中国环境科学,2005,25(4)：508-512
[2]北京大学中国经济研究中心课题组.中国出口贸易中的垂直专门化与中美贸易[J].世界经济.2006(5)：3-11
[3]卢锋.产品内分工[J].经济学(季刊),2004(10)：55-82
[4]刘志彪,吴福象.全球化经济中的生产非一体化——基于江苏投入产出表的实证研究[J].中国工业经济.2005(7)：12-19
[5]刘强,庄幸,姜克隽,韩文科.中国出口贸易中的载能量及碳排放量分析[J].中国工业经济,2008(8)：46-55
[6]闫云凤,杨来科.中国出口隐含碳排放的影响因素分析[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2010,20(8)：48-52
[7]闫云凤,杨来科.中美贸易与气候变化——基于投入产出法的分析[J].国际贸易,2009,7：40-44
[8]齐哗,李惠民,徐明.中国进出口贸易中的隐含碳估算[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008(3)：8-13
[9]吴福象.经济全球化中制造业垂直分离的研究[J].财经科学.2005(3)：113-120
[10]张小蒂,孙景蔚.基于垂直专业化分工的中国产业国际竞争力分析[J].世界经济.2006(5)：12-21
[11]张友国.中国贸易增长的能源环境代价[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2009(1)：16-30
[12]张天桂.低碳经济转型和中国-东盟FTA贸易与环境的协调[J].亚太经济,2010(4)：9-14
[13]张志辉.我国对外贸易与污染产业转移的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2006(12)：103-107
[14]李国志.中国发展低碳经济的困难与政策建议[J].亚太经济,2010(4)：15-19
[15]李艳梅,付加锋.中国出口贸易中隐含碳排放增长的结构分解分析[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2010(10)：53-37
[16]陈红敏.包含工业生产过程碳排放的产业部门隐含碳研究[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2009,19(3)：25-30
[17]陈红敏.我国出口贸易中隐含能变化的影响因素——基于结构分解分析的研究[J].财贸研究,2009(3)
[18]陈红敏.我国对外贸易的能源环境影响——基于隐含流的研究,复旦大学博十学位论文,2009(4)
[19]林毅夫,蔡防,李周.对赶超战略的反思[J].战略与管理1994(6)：1-12
[20]郑伟腾,赵涤非.中国对外贸易的环境效应及其路径实证分析[J].亚太经济,2009,6：79-83
[21]赵细康,李建民.中国环境保护与产业国际竞争力关系的展望[J].广东社会科学,2004(1)：57-62
[22]贾格迪什·巴沃蒂著,海闻译.今日国际贸易[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社.2004
[23]高越,高峰.垂直专业化分工及我国的分工地位[J].国际贸易问题,2005(3)：16-20
[24]斯蒂格利茨等著,王玉清朱文晖译.东亚奇迹的反思(世界银行发展丛书·研究报告系列)[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2003
[25]魏一鸣.关于我国碳排放问题的若干对策与建议[J].中国科学院院刊.2006(1)：6
[26]Ahmad N., Wyckoff A.W. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Embodied in International Trade of Goods [R].STI Working paper DSTI/DOC,vol.15.Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD),Paris,France.2003
[27]Akamatsu, Kaname. A Historical Pattern of Economic Growth in Developing Countries[J]. The Developing Economies,1962,1:3-25
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