江西省出口贸易碳排放测度研究
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摘要
以气候变暖为主要特征的全球气候变化已经成为21世纪人类共同面临的最重大环境与发展挑战,应对全球气候变化是当前乃至今后相当长时期内实现全球可持续发展的核心任务。一直以来,人们发现只有在根本上摆脱对化石燃料的依赖,实现生产、消费方式全面向低碳转型,才能够真正解决气候变化问题。因此,探索低碳贸易发展之路毋庸置疑会成为未来的必然选择。
作为一个负责任的人口大国,我们积极采取的应对措施已经在近年来的节能减排活动中得到了充分的应证。然而,我国即将成为世界最大的二氧化碳排放国,所面临的减排压力将越来越大。同时,我们又是世界上第二大贸易国,正面临着快速经济增长要求、较大的就业压力、技术水平相对落后乃至体制机制不完备等方面困境,而这些困境都会成为我国发展低碳贸易道路中的障碍。
改革开放以来,江西省也逐步积极地投入到对外贸易经济活动中来,尽管面对来自于贸易摩擦、贸易壁垒增多乃至人民币升值等诸多方面的困难和挑战,“外贸列车”确依旧保持较为稳定的增长态势,对外贸易额也成为拉动全省经济增长的重要动力。为了进一步的保障对外贸易持续健康稳定发展,江西省有责任也有义务加入到探求低碳绿色贸易发展道路的大军中来,在扩大出口贸易的进程中,逐步完善制度和体制、并积累经验以有序地实现低碳贸易进而拓展到全省经济的低碳化,从而为实现可持续发展奠定坚实的基础。
本文共分为五章。
第一章,导论。主要包括选题背景及意义、国内外研究现状、论文的结构安排、研究方法及论文的创新与不足之处等几个组成部分。
第二章,探求发展低碳贸易发展道路的理论支持。首先,由“低碳经济”的由来为引子提出低碳经济的概念；随后通过对低碳经济实质的把握剖析低碳经济的内涵,并深入分析低碳经济的效用；再次,对贸易和环境的关联性做初步理论分析。
第三章,江西省出口贸易碳排放测度实证分析。采用投入产出法,测算出江西省出口贸易中的碳排放总量,探求我省出口贸易结构存在的问题；运用协整检验、格兰杰因果关系、方差分解等方法对江西省1990-2008年出口贸易碳排放总量和出口贸易额之间关系进行实证研究。
第四章,国际发展低碳经济的经验及启示。他山之石,可以攻玉。本章首先分别介绍欧盟国家、亚洲国家、美洲国家中代表性国家发展低碳经济的模式与特点,最后总结出其中一些有益的启示。
第五章,结论与政策建议。首先总结出本文的几点基本研究结论；之后,结合江西省的具体情况,总结出发展低碳贸易的政策及建议为：在战略上,坚持走可持续发展道路；逐步减少空气中有害气体的排放,走绿色贸易道路；优化能源消费结构,提高使用效率；不断提升生产技术水平,提高科技自主创新能力；加大法律宣传力度,规范企业行为；加强国际合作。
With global warming being the main feature, global climate change has been the most significant environment and development challenge the human beings have been facing in the 21st century. The core mission of realizing. the global sustainable development is to cope with global climate change not only at present but also in a long period from now on. All along, people has found that only by getting rid of our dependence on fossil fuels and realizing the transition to a low-carbon economy of production and consumption patterns can we really handle the issue of climate change. Therefore, to explore the development road of low carbon trading is the only choice in the future undoubtedly.
Being a responsible big populous nation, the countermeasures we have taken positively have been demonstrated in the energy conservation and emission reduction activities in recent years. However, becoming the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide soon, we are confronting increasing reduction pressure. At the same time, we are the world's second largest trading nation, facing adverse conditions such as the fast economic growth, the problem of employment, the low development level of technology and the incomplete mechanism system. These adverse conditions will become the barrier in the development road of low carbon trading.
Since reform and opening up, Jiangxi Province has actively engaged in the foreign economic and trade activities step by step. Although there exists the difficulties and challenges coming from trade friction, increased trade barriers, RMB appreciation and so on. The "foreign trade train" still keeps relatively stable growth, and foreign trade has become the important pulling force in economic growth. In order to guarantee the sustainable and healthy and stable development of foreign trade, Jiangxi Province has the responsibility and the obligation to join the group of exploring the low carbon trade development road. In the process of expanding export trade, Jiangxi Province has been supposed to perfect the system and accumulate certain experience in order to realize low carbon trade and then the low carbonization in the general economy, which lay a solid foundation for the realization of sustainable development.
This paper totally includes five chapters.
Chapter I, Introduction. The main contain is to introduce the background and why study the subject, irrelated research, the structure, research methods, contributions and insufficiencies of the paper.
ChapterⅡ, The basic theory for the development of low-carbon trade. First of all, this chapter puts forward the concept of low-carbon economy by talking about the origin of low-carbon economy. Then it analyzes the connotation of low-carbon economy by referring to the essence of low-carbon economy and the function of low-carbon economy, At last, it analyzes the relevance between the trade and the environment preliminarily from the theory gradation.
ChapterⅢ, The empirical research of the carbon emission measure of export trade in Jiangxi Province. This chapter uses the input-output method to measure the total carbon emissions of Jiangxi export trade. It explores the problem existing in the Jiangxi export trade structure. It uses the cointegration test, the Granger causality test, the variance decomposition to do the empirical research of the relationship between the total carbon emissions of Jiangxi export trade and the export trade volume from 1990 to 2008 in Jiangxi.
ChapterⅣ, The experience and enlightenment of foreign low-carbon economy. By other's faults, wise man can correct their own.This chapter introduces the low-carbon economy development model and characteristics of the representative country in the EU countries, the Asian countries and the American states. It summarizes some of theirs beneficial enlightenments in the end.
ChapterⅤ, Conclution and Proposition. Firstly, it makes some basic research conclusions. Later, according to the particular case in Jiangxi Province, it holds that there are some policies and suggestions to the low carbon trade development: Strategically we should persist in the course of sustainable development; We should lower the release of toxic gas in the air step by step and take the green trade path; optimizing energy consumption structure, improving the energy using efficiency, promoting the manufacturing technology level increasingly, raising the independent innovation ability, increasing the propaganda of laws, standardizing the action of the enterprises, enhancing international cooperation.
作为一个负责任的人口大国,我们积极采取的应对措施已经在近年来的节能减排活动中得到了充分的应证。然而,我国即将成为世界最大的二氧化碳排放国,所面临的减排压力将越来越大。同时,我们又是世界上第二大贸易国,正面临着快速经济增长要求、较大的就业压力、技术水平相对落后乃至体制机制不完备等方面困境,而这些困境都会成为我国发展低碳贸易道路中的障碍。
改革开放以来,江西省也逐步积极地投入到对外贸易经济活动中来,尽管面对来自于贸易摩擦、贸易壁垒增多乃至人民币升值等诸多方面的困难和挑战,“外贸列车”确依旧保持较为稳定的增长态势,对外贸易额也成为拉动全省经济增长的重要动力。为了进一步的保障对外贸易持续健康稳定发展,江西省有责任也有义务加入到探求低碳绿色贸易发展道路的大军中来,在扩大出口贸易的进程中,逐步完善制度和体制、并积累经验以有序地实现低碳贸易进而拓展到全省经济的低碳化,从而为实现可持续发展奠定坚实的基础。
本文共分为五章。
第一章,导论。主要包括选题背景及意义、国内外研究现状、论文的结构安排、研究方法及论文的创新与不足之处等几个组成部分。
第二章,探求发展低碳贸易发展道路的理论支持。首先,由“低碳经济”的由来为引子提出低碳经济的概念；随后通过对低碳经济实质的把握剖析低碳经济的内涵,并深入分析低碳经济的效用；再次,对贸易和环境的关联性做初步理论分析。
第三章,江西省出口贸易碳排放测度实证分析。采用投入产出法,测算出江西省出口贸易中的碳排放总量,探求我省出口贸易结构存在的问题；运用协整检验、格兰杰因果关系、方差分解等方法对江西省1990-2008年出口贸易碳排放总量和出口贸易额之间关系进行实证研究。
第四章,国际发展低碳经济的经验及启示。他山之石,可以攻玉。本章首先分别介绍欧盟国家、亚洲国家、美洲国家中代表性国家发展低碳经济的模式与特点,最后总结出其中一些有益的启示。
第五章,结论与政策建议。首先总结出本文的几点基本研究结论；之后,结合江西省的具体情况,总结出发展低碳贸易的政策及建议为：在战略上,坚持走可持续发展道路；逐步减少空气中有害气体的排放,走绿色贸易道路；优化能源消费结构,提高使用效率；不断提升生产技术水平,提高科技自主创新能力；加大法律宣传力度,规范企业行为；加强国际合作。
With global warming being the main feature, global climate change has been the most significant environment and development challenge the human beings have been facing in the 21st century. The core mission of realizing. the global sustainable development is to cope with global climate change not only at present but also in a long period from now on. All along, people has found that only by getting rid of our dependence on fossil fuels and realizing the transition to a low-carbon economy of production and consumption patterns can we really handle the issue of climate change. Therefore, to explore the development road of low carbon trading is the only choice in the future undoubtedly.
Being a responsible big populous nation, the countermeasures we have taken positively have been demonstrated in the energy conservation and emission reduction activities in recent years. However, becoming the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide soon, we are confronting increasing reduction pressure. At the same time, we are the world's second largest trading nation, facing adverse conditions such as the fast economic growth, the problem of employment, the low development level of technology and the incomplete mechanism system. These adverse conditions will become the barrier in the development road of low carbon trading.
Since reform and opening up, Jiangxi Province has actively engaged in the foreign economic and trade activities step by step. Although there exists the difficulties and challenges coming from trade friction, increased trade barriers, RMB appreciation and so on. The "foreign trade train" still keeps relatively stable growth, and foreign trade has become the important pulling force in economic growth. In order to guarantee the sustainable and healthy and stable development of foreign trade, Jiangxi Province has the responsibility and the obligation to join the group of exploring the low carbon trade development road. In the process of expanding export trade, Jiangxi Province has been supposed to perfect the system and accumulate certain experience in order to realize low carbon trade and then the low carbonization in the general economy, which lay a solid foundation for the realization of sustainable development.
This paper totally includes five chapters.
Chapter I, Introduction. The main contain is to introduce the background and why study the subject, irrelated research, the structure, research methods, contributions and insufficiencies of the paper.
ChapterⅡ, The basic theory for the development of low-carbon trade. First of all, this chapter puts forward the concept of low-carbon economy by talking about the origin of low-carbon economy. Then it analyzes the connotation of low-carbon economy by referring to the essence of low-carbon economy and the function of low-carbon economy, At last, it analyzes the relevance between the trade and the environment preliminarily from the theory gradation.
ChapterⅢ, The empirical research of the carbon emission measure of export trade in Jiangxi Province. This chapter uses the input-output method to measure the total carbon emissions of Jiangxi export trade. It explores the problem existing in the Jiangxi export trade structure. It uses the cointegration test, the Granger causality test, the variance decomposition to do the empirical research of the relationship between the total carbon emissions of Jiangxi export trade and the export trade volume from 1990 to 2008 in Jiangxi.
ChapterⅣ, The experience and enlightenment of foreign low-carbon economy. By other's faults, wise man can correct their own.This chapter introduces the low-carbon economy development model and characteristics of the representative country in the EU countries, the Asian countries and the American states. It summarizes some of theirs beneficial enlightenments in the end.
ChapterⅤ, Conclution and Proposition. Firstly, it makes some basic research conclusions. Later, according to the particular case in Jiangxi Province, it holds that there are some policies and suggestions to the low carbon trade development: Strategically we should persist in the course of sustainable development; We should lower the release of toxic gas in the air step by step and take the green trade path; optimizing energy consumption structure, improving the energy using efficiency, promoting the manufacturing technology level increasingly, raising the independent innovation ability, increasing the propaganda of laws, standardizing the action of the enterprises, enhancing international cooperation.
引文
①Ahmad N, Wyckoff A W. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Embodied in International Trade of Goods[EB/OL]. OECD Publications, http://www.oecd.org/sti/working-papers,2003.
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①数据来源于江西省统计局国民经济核算处。
②http://www.jxstj.gov.cn/Index.shtml
①中国人民大学气候变化与低碳经济研究所：《低碳经济—中国用行动告诉哥本哈根》,石油工业出版社.2010年：49.
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①http://wiki.mbalib.com/wiki/%E6%8A%95%E5%85%A5%E4%BA%A7%E5%87%BA%E8%A1%A8
②中国气候变化国别研究组(2000)：固体、气体燃料的碳排放系数为25.54k/GJ和19.9kg/GJ.
①中国气候变化国别研究组(2000)：固体、气体燃料的碳排放系数为25.54kg/GJ和19.9kg/GJ.
①朱启荣.中国出口贸易中的二氧化碳排放问题研究[J].中国工业经济,2010(1)：55～64
①取完对数后,D.W.检验值为1.303624,说明变量之间不存在明显的自相关性。
②齐晔等：《中国进出口贸易中的隐含碳排放估算》,中国人口资源与环境,2008(3)：8～13页.
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①林元龙.低碳经济”视角下的我国能源结构优化策略[J],中学地理教学参考,2009(10)：34～36.
②统计资料显示,2007江西省高新技术产业951个单位,全年实现工业总产值10728633万元,利润总额598997万元。
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[39]汤铸.贸易自由化对我国环境污染的实证分析[D].湖南：湖南大学,2005年：14～18
[40]刘峰.中国进出口贸易能源消耗问题的研究[D].北京：清华大学,2007.
[41]张德英.我国工业部门碳源排碳量估算方法研究[D].北京：北京林业大学,2005：18～30.
[42]陈迎,潘家华,谢来辉.中国外贸进出口商品中的内涵能源及其政策含义[J].经济研究,2008(7)：11～25.
[43]鲍健强等.低碳经济：人类经济发展方式的新变革[J],中国工业经济,2008,(04),153～160.
[44]付允等.低碳经济的发展模式研究[J],中国人口·资源与环境,2008,(3)：14～18.
[45]龚建文.低碳经济：中国的现实选择[J],江西社会科学,2009(7)：11～17.
[46]郭印,王敏洁.国际低碳经济发展经验及对中国的启示[J],改革与战略,2009(10)：176.
[47]黄栋.气候变化、低碳经济与新能源发展[J],华中科技大学学报,2009(6)：23～33.
[48]金乐琴等.低碳经济与中国经济发展模式转型[J],经济问题探索,2009(01),84～87.
[49]林元龙.“低碳经济”视角下的我国能源结构优化策略[J],中学地理教学参考,2009(10)：34～36.
[50]刘强等.中国出口贸易中的载能量及碳排放量分析[J].中国工业经济,2008(8)：46～54.
[51]宁学敏.我国碳排放与出口贸易的相关关系研究[J].生态经济,2009(11)51～54.
[52]潘家华,郑燕.碳排放与发展权益[J].世界环境,2008(4)：58.
[53]齐晔,李惠民,徐明.中国进出口贸易中的隐含碳估算[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(3)：8.
[54]魏本勇等.基于投入产出分析的中国国际贸易碳排放研究[J].北京师范大学学 报(自然科学版),2009：413～419.
[55]王宇.世界走向低碳经济[J],中国金融,2009(24)：22～30.
[56]王中英,王礼茂.中国经济增长对碳排放的影响分析[J].安全环境学报,2006(10)：88～91.
[57]夏先良.碳关税、低碳经济和中美贸易再平衡[J].国际贸易,2009(11)37～45
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[62]余慧超,王礼茂.中美商品贸易的碳排放转移研究[J].自然资源学报,2009(10)：1837～1846.
[63]赵玉敏.低碳经济的约束、挑战和机遇[J].国际贸易,2009(11)：31～36.
[64]朱启荣.中国出口贸易中的二氧化碳排放问题研究[J].中国工业经济,2010(1)：55～64
②Schaeffer R, De Al S A. The embodiment of carbon associated with Brazilian imports and exports[J]. Energy Conversion and Management,1996,37 (628):955.
③Machado G, Schaeffer R, Worrell E. Energy and carbon embodied in the international trade ofBrazil:An input-output approach [J]. Ecological Econom ics,2001,39 (3):409-～424.
④Mongeli I, Tassielli G, Notarnicola B. Globalwarning agreements, international trade and energy/carbon embodiments:An input-output approach to Italian case[J]. Energy Policy,2002,34 (1):88～100.
⑤Kurt Kratena, Ina Meyer.CO2 Emissions Embodied inAustrian International Trade [J]. FIW Research Reports,2009(10):1～24.
⑥Shui B, Harriss R C. The Rrole of CO2 Embodiment in US to China Trade [J]. Energy Policy,2006, (34): 4063～4068.
⑦Youli, Hewitt. The effect of trade between China and the UK on national and global carbon dioxide emission [J]. Energy Policy,2008,36 (6):1907-1914
⑧宁学敏.我国碳排放与出口贸易的相关关系研究[J].生态经济,2009(11)51～54.
⑨余慧超,王礼茂.中美商品贸易的碳排放转移研究[J].自然资源学报,2009(10)： 1837～1846.
①闫云凤,杨来科.中美贸易与气候变化—基于投入产出法的分析[J].世界经济研究,2009(7)：40～44.
②刘强等.中国出口贸易中的载能量及碳排放量分析[J].中国工业经济,2008(8)：46～54.
③齐晔,李惠民,徐明.中国进出口贸易中的隐含碳估算[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(3)：8.
③魏本勇等.基于投入产出分析的中国国际贸易碳排放研究[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2009：413～419.
③朱启荣.中国出口贸易中的二氧化碳排放问题研究[J].中国工业经济,2010(1)：55～64
①数据来源于江西省统计局国民经济核算处。
②http://www.jxstj.gov.cn/Index.shtml
①中国人民大学气候变化与低碳经济研究所：《低碳经济—中国用行动告诉哥本哈根》,石油工业出版社.2010年：49.
②单宝.解读低碳经济[J],内蒙古社会科学(汉文版),2009(11)：76.
①郭印,王敏洁.国际低碳经济发展经验及对中国的启示[J],改革与战略,2009(10)：176.
②庄贵阳.中国经济低碳发展的途径与潜力分析[J],国际技术经济研究,2005(3)：79～87.
③付允等.低碳经济的发展模式研究[J],中国人口·资源与环境,2008(3)：14～18.
鲍健强等.低碳经济：人类经济发展方式的新变革[J],中国工业经济,2008(04)：153～160.
⑤金乐琴等.低碳经济与中国经济发展模式转型[J],经济问题探索,2009(01)：84～87.
①庄贵阳.气候变化挑战与中国经济低碳发展[J],国际经济评论,2007：9～10.
②龚建文.低碳经济：中国的现实选择[J],江西社会科学,2009(7)：11～17.
①黄栋.气候变化、低碳经济与新能源发展[J],华中科技大学学报,2009(6)：23～33.
②郑平.低碳经济正在来临[J],经济导刊,2009(9)：13～20.
③汤铸.贸易自由化对我国环境污染的实证分析[D],湖南大学,2005年：14～18
①陈红敏.我国对外贸易的能源环境影响—基于隐含流的研究[D],上海复旦大学,2009年：74～75.
①http://wiki.mbalib.com/wiki/%E6%8A%95%E5%85%A5%E4%BA%A7%E5%87%BA%E8%A1%A8
②中国气候变化国别研究组(2000)：固体、气体燃料的碳排放系数为25.54k/GJ和19.9kg/GJ.
①中国气候变化国别研究组(2000)：固体、气体燃料的碳排放系数为25.54kg/GJ和19.9kg/GJ.
①朱启荣.中国出口贸易中的二氧化碳排放问题研究[J].中国工业经济,2010(1)：55～64
①取完对数后,D.W.检验值为1.303624,说明变量之间不存在明显的自相关性。
②齐晔等：《中国进出口贸易中的隐含碳排放估算》,中国人口资源与环境,2008(3)：8～13页.
①王宇.世界走向低碳经济[J],中国金融,2009(24)：22～30.
①王宇.世界走向低碳经济[J],中国金融,2009(24)：22～30.
①王宇.世界走向低碳经济[J],中国金融,2009(24)：22～30.
①林元龙.低碳经济”视角下的我国能源结构优化策略[J],中学地理教学参考,2009(10)：34～36.
②统计资料显示,2007江西省高新技术产业951个单位,全年实现工业总产值10728633万元,利润总额598997万元。
①http://www.govyi.com/gongwenxiezuo/lunwen/200603/54175.html.
[1]http://wenda.tianya.cn.。
[2]http://ep.newzgc.com
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[50]刘强等.中国出口贸易中的载能量及碳排放量分析[J].中国工业经济,2008(8)：46～54.
[51]宁学敏.我国碳排放与出口贸易的相关关系研究[J].生态经济,2009(11)51～54.
[52]潘家华,郑燕.碳排放与发展权益[J].世界环境,2008(4)：58.
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[56]王中英,王礼茂.中国经济增长对碳排放的影响分析[J].安全环境学报,2006(10)：88～91.
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