中国木质林产品碳流量核算及影响研究
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摘要
森林与木质林产品是陆地生态系统碳循环的一部分。木材的采伐能将森林固碳转移到产品，木质林产品碳释放的滞后效应使其具有较强的碳储存功能。木质林产品的碳储量议题已被列为《联合国气候变化框架公约》谈判的重要林业议题之一。参与国际贸易的木质林产品的碳储量归属和碳排放分配是议题谈判的焦点问题。FAO林业数据库的统计显示：中国已成为木质林产品生产和国际贸易大国。核算和研究中国木质林产品的碳储量及贸易隐含的碳流动，对评价温室气体减排潜力有着重要的意义。
本文对IPCC指南中的HWP碳量核算方法和途径（IPCC缺省法、储量变化法、生产法和大气流动法）进行了对比分析，构建了核算方法运用的理论框架，继而估算了1961-2011年我国木质林产品的碳库储碳量及其年度变化。2011年我国消费木质林产品的碳库储碳量676.69MtC，1961-2011年均增长10.78MtC。应用IPCC缺省法，木质林产品碳储量为零。应用储量变化法、生产法和大气流动法，1961-2011年我国木质林产品年度储碳量平均值分别为10.63MtC、7.61MtC和2.62MtC；对比1980-2010年中国能源消耗的CO2排放量，木质林产品平均减排贡献率分别为1.61%、1.22%和0.47%，低于全球平均水平2%。我国木质林产品具有一定的碳汇功能与减排潜力，其中储量变化法核算的碳汇贡献最大，大气流动法最小，生产法的核算结果居中间水平，但蒙特卡洛模拟不确定性分析显示，生产法的不确定性最高。
木质林产品的贸易及方法的选择对碳量估算结果产生影响。1961-2011年我国所有木质林产品的进口碳储量呈不断上升趋势。2011年，最主要的两类进口产品木质纸浆和工业圆木的进口碳转移量达到19.45MtC和10.58MtC，这两类木材加工原材的大量净进口，增加了储量变化法核算的碳汇贡献结果。2011年中国净进口木质林产品产生的碳排放达14.74Mt C。纸浆属于半衰期为两年的短周期产品，年度碳释放量很大，进口纸浆消费的大量碳释放增加了应用大气流动法的国内碳排放计量。基于碳量进出口国共同承担原则，本文提出木质林产品储量拓展模型，2011年的储碳核算结果为7.6Mt C，比储量变化法低25Mt C，比大气流动法高8.8Mt C，在一定程度上协调了储量变化法和大气流动法对碳量的极端分配。
本文从木材国际市场价格及供需变化视角，分析了不同方法对林产品贸易、森林资源可持续等的潜在影响。从森林采伐和木质林产品碳流动变化的视角，分析了碳量核算对木质林产品碳管理策略产生的潜在影响。研究表明：综合考虑方法的可行性、与国家政策目标的兼容性以及核算木质林产品的碳汇贡献率，选择储量变化法更有利于我国履行温室气体减排义务，同时会促进我国森林的可持续管理。我国提高木质林产品碳储存和碳替代功能，增强木质林产品碳量管理效能，能够促进木质林产品在减缓气候变化中扮演更积极的角色。
Forests and harvested wood products (HWP) are part of the carbon cycle ofterrestrial ecosystem. Forests have an important role in mitigating global climatechange because these forests can remove a significant amount of CO2from theatmosphere. Carbon stock in forests can be transferred to wood products thatconstitute a carbon reservoir via timber harvest. The storage of carbon in HWP isan important forestry issue in the United Nations Framework on Climate ChangeConvention. However, no consensus has been made on how to attribute carbonsequestration in wood products involved in international trade to appropriateparties. Given that China is a large HWP-trading country, studies on carbonstorage and flow of HWP trade are important to help mitigate carbonconcentrations in this country.
First, a comparative analysis on the IPCC default approach, Stock-changeapproach (SCA), Production approach (PA) and Atmospheric-flow approach(AFA) provided by IPCC guidance is made to build a theoretical framework forthe application of methods. Four approaches are used to estimate the carbonstorage and annual change of HWP of China during the period1961to2011. Theaverage annual growth of carbon sequestration of HWP in China’s consumptionof wood products from1961to2011was approximately10.78MtC per year, andthe total stock of carbon in HWP in2011reached676.69MtC. The IPCC defaultapproach assumes that the carbon storage is zero. From1961to2011, China’saverage annual carbon sequestration of HWP estimated based on the SCA, AFAand PA accpraches were10.6,7.6, and2.6MtC per year, respectively. Theaverage ratios of annual carbon sequestration in the HWP pool to the emissionsof energy consumption in China published in the U.S. Energy InformationAdministration were1.61%,1.22%, and0.47%, respectively. By contrast,China’s HWP carbon pool has a relatively lower contribution rate than the globalaverage level2%. China has a potential space to improve the contribution ofHWP to the removal of carbon from the atmosphere. As a result, carbonsequestration accounted by the SCA approach is the largest, by AFA approach isminimum; the accounting result by PA approach is in the intermediate level. Butusing Monte Carlo analysis, the uncertainty of results from the PA approach wasthe highest.
The international trade of HWP and the choice of approaches affected thecarbon estimates results. From1961to2011, the carbon transfer in differentforms of wood product imports (including wood panels, roundwood, sawnwood,chips, wood residue, wood pulp, charcoal, paper, and paperboard) displayed arising trend. For the solid wood products, the carbon transfer of industrialroundwood imports in2011reached10.58MtC per year. For the paper products,the carbon transfer of wood pulp imports reached19.45MtC per year in2011.Large wood product imports increased the contribution to carbon sequestration ofthe wood products based on the SCA approach. Meanwhile, the carbon releasedinto the atmosphere from China’s net wood product imports reached14.7MtC peryear in2011. Wood pulp has the largest carbon sequestration. However, woodpulp belongs to the paper product category with a short half-life of two years,thereby contributing to large annual carbon emissions in the consuming country.Large wood pulp imports increase China’s annual domestic carbon sequestrationbased on the AFA approach but greatly increased the accounting of China’scarbon emissions. Based on carbon shared principle, an expanded stock-changeapproach is developed. And the estimated carbon sequestration of HWP is7.6MtC in2011, which is25MtC less than that by SCA approach and8.8MtC morethan that by AFA approach.
Different approaches have different system boundaries to attribute carbonsequestration in wood products involved in international trade to appropriateparties. From the angle of market, the paper analyzes the possible effects ofaccounting of wood products on the international trade of products and the forestsustainable management. And from the angle of carbon flow of forest and woodproducts system, the paper analyzes the possible effects of accounting of woodproducts on the achivement of related policy goals. The results show that,application of the SCA approach would not only increase the contribution ofcarbon storage in wood products to reduce national greenhouse gas emissions, butalso have a positive impact on the sustainable management of China’s forests. Toenhance the function of carbon sequestration and carbon alternative reduction,the efficiency of carbon management of HWP, the wood products in China willplay a more active role in the mitigation of climate change.
本文对IPCC指南中的HWP碳量核算方法和途径（IPCC缺省法、储量变化法、生产法和大气流动法）进行了对比分析，构建了核算方法运用的理论框架，继而估算了1961-2011年我国木质林产品的碳库储碳量及其年度变化。2011年我国消费木质林产品的碳库储碳量676.69MtC，1961-2011年均增长10.78MtC。应用IPCC缺省法，木质林产品碳储量为零。应用储量变化法、生产法和大气流动法，1961-2011年我国木质林产品年度储碳量平均值分别为10.63MtC、7.61MtC和2.62MtC；对比1980-2010年中国能源消耗的CO2排放量，木质林产品平均减排贡献率分别为1.61%、1.22%和0.47%，低于全球平均水平2%。我国木质林产品具有一定的碳汇功能与减排潜力，其中储量变化法核算的碳汇贡献最大，大气流动法最小，生产法的核算结果居中间水平，但蒙特卡洛模拟不确定性分析显示，生产法的不确定性最高。
木质林产品的贸易及方法的选择对碳量估算结果产生影响。1961-2011年我国所有木质林产品的进口碳储量呈不断上升趋势。2011年，最主要的两类进口产品木质纸浆和工业圆木的进口碳转移量达到19.45MtC和10.58MtC，这两类木材加工原材的大量净进口，增加了储量变化法核算的碳汇贡献结果。2011年中国净进口木质林产品产生的碳排放达14.74Mt C。纸浆属于半衰期为两年的短周期产品，年度碳释放量很大，进口纸浆消费的大量碳释放增加了应用大气流动法的国内碳排放计量。基于碳量进出口国共同承担原则，本文提出木质林产品储量拓展模型，2011年的储碳核算结果为7.6Mt C，比储量变化法低25Mt C，比大气流动法高8.8Mt C，在一定程度上协调了储量变化法和大气流动法对碳量的极端分配。
本文从木材国际市场价格及供需变化视角，分析了不同方法对林产品贸易、森林资源可持续等的潜在影响。从森林采伐和木质林产品碳流动变化的视角，分析了碳量核算对木质林产品碳管理策略产生的潜在影响。研究表明：综合考虑方法的可行性、与国家政策目标的兼容性以及核算木质林产品的碳汇贡献率，选择储量变化法更有利于我国履行温室气体减排义务，同时会促进我国森林的可持续管理。我国提高木质林产品碳储存和碳替代功能，增强木质林产品碳量管理效能，能够促进木质林产品在减缓气候变化中扮演更积极的角色。
Forests and harvested wood products (HWP) are part of the carbon cycle ofterrestrial ecosystem. Forests have an important role in mitigating global climatechange because these forests can remove a significant amount of CO2from theatmosphere. Carbon stock in forests can be transferred to wood products thatconstitute a carbon reservoir via timber harvest. The storage of carbon in HWP isan important forestry issue in the United Nations Framework on Climate ChangeConvention. However, no consensus has been made on how to attribute carbonsequestration in wood products involved in international trade to appropriateparties. Given that China is a large HWP-trading country, studies on carbonstorage and flow of HWP trade are important to help mitigate carbonconcentrations in this country.
First, a comparative analysis on the IPCC default approach, Stock-changeapproach (SCA), Production approach (PA) and Atmospheric-flow approach(AFA) provided by IPCC guidance is made to build a theoretical framework forthe application of methods. Four approaches are used to estimate the carbonstorage and annual change of HWP of China during the period1961to2011. Theaverage annual growth of carbon sequestration of HWP in China’s consumptionof wood products from1961to2011was approximately10.78MtC per year, andthe total stock of carbon in HWP in2011reached676.69MtC. The IPCC defaultapproach assumes that the carbon storage is zero. From1961to2011, China’saverage annual carbon sequestration of HWP estimated based on the SCA, AFAand PA accpraches were10.6,7.6, and2.6MtC per year, respectively. Theaverage ratios of annual carbon sequestration in the HWP pool to the emissionsof energy consumption in China published in the U.S. Energy InformationAdministration were1.61%,1.22%, and0.47%, respectively. By contrast,China’s HWP carbon pool has a relatively lower contribution rate than the globalaverage level2%. China has a potential space to improve the contribution ofHWP to the removal of carbon from the atmosphere. As a result, carbonsequestration accounted by the SCA approach is the largest, by AFA approach isminimum; the accounting result by PA approach is in the intermediate level. Butusing Monte Carlo analysis, the uncertainty of results from the PA approach wasthe highest.
The international trade of HWP and the choice of approaches affected thecarbon estimates results. From1961to2011, the carbon transfer in differentforms of wood product imports (including wood panels, roundwood, sawnwood,chips, wood residue, wood pulp, charcoal, paper, and paperboard) displayed arising trend. For the solid wood products, the carbon transfer of industrialroundwood imports in2011reached10.58MtC per year. For the paper products,the carbon transfer of wood pulp imports reached19.45MtC per year in2011.Large wood product imports increased the contribution to carbon sequestration ofthe wood products based on the SCA approach. Meanwhile, the carbon releasedinto the atmosphere from China’s net wood product imports reached14.7MtC peryear in2011. Wood pulp has the largest carbon sequestration. However, woodpulp belongs to the paper product category with a short half-life of two years,thereby contributing to large annual carbon emissions in the consuming country.Large wood pulp imports increase China’s annual domestic carbon sequestrationbased on the AFA approach but greatly increased the accounting of China’scarbon emissions. Based on carbon shared principle, an expanded stock-changeapproach is developed. And the estimated carbon sequestration of HWP is7.6MtC in2011, which is25MtC less than that by SCA approach and8.8MtC morethan that by AFA approach.
Different approaches have different system boundaries to attribute carbonsequestration in wood products involved in international trade to appropriateparties. From the angle of market, the paper analyzes the possible effects ofaccounting of wood products on the international trade of products and the forestsustainable management. And from the angle of carbon flow of forest and woodproducts system, the paper analyzes the possible effects of accounting of woodproducts on the achivement of related policy goals. The results show that,application of the SCA approach would not only increase the contribution ofcarbon storage in wood products to reduce national greenhouse gas emissions, butalso have a positive impact on the sustainable management of China’s forests. Toenhance the function of carbon sequestration and carbon alternative reduction,the efficiency of carbon management of HWP, the wood products in China willplay a more active role in the mitigation of climate change.
引文
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