基于水足迹的天津市农业产业分析
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摘要
随着经济的快速发展和人口的不断增长,水资源的供需矛盾日益突出,水资源短缺已成为制约社会经济发展的重要因素之一。在我国的水资源消费结构中,农业用水一直占着很大的比重,作为农业命脉的水对农业经济发展和产业结构调整具有不可替代的作用。我国水资源分布时空不均,在一些地区水资源短缺严重制约着农业经济的可持续发展。
本文先对虚拟水和水足迹国内外相关研究的文献进行综述,分析研究的内容和研究趋势,并总结研究涉及的方面。通过研究现状分析发现国内以水足迹为角度对农业产业的分析研究还比较少,所以本文选择以天津市农业产业为例,基于水足迹的角度对其农作物种植业进行分析。
首先,本文分析了天津市农业和水资源现状。先从地理位置、区位特征和自然条件三个方面介绍了天津市概况,再从农业在国民经济中的比重和农林牧渔的产值结构两个角度剖析了天津市农业经济概况,然后从水资源总量、特性和用水状况三个方面分析了水资源现状,最后从粮食生产、社会稳定和农产品竞争力三个方面指出水资源短缺对农业的影响。
然后,本文在计算了天津市主要农产品的单位水足迹和水足迹基础上对农作物种植业进行了水足迹分析。首先分析了主要农产品历年单位水足迹的变化趋势,并与全国平均值做了比较研究,得出天津市农产品的比较优势;然后从耗水度和单位水价值两个方面分析了天津市农作物种植业的耗水情况和经济效益,并分析评价了天津市农作物种植业的合理性;最后对天津市农作物种植业进行了优化分析。
最后,本文对天津市农作物种植业的水足迹消费做了趋势预测。先从天津市主要农作物历年水足迹的消费趋势、水资源匮乏度和万元GDP水足迹三个方面分析了各农作物种植业的水资源利用情况;再以灰色系统理论为基础建立灰色预测模型,对天津市各农作物的水足迹趋势进行了预测,得到了2010-2016年的预测结果;最后针对天津市农作物的水足迹分析和预测结果分析,本文给出了相应的措施对策。
With the fast economy development and population increasing, the conflicts between water supply and demand are getting serious day by day; the water resource shortage has been one of the important factors that constrict the development of the social economy. In the water resource consuming structures of our country, the agriculture water covers a larger share. As the lifeline of the agriculture, water has been playing an irreplaceable position in the agriculture economy development and industry structure adjustment.
This thesis firstly made literature review on the virtual water and water footprints, and the research content and trend are also analyzed to conclude the involved aspects of this thesis. Through the review, it is found that there are still few researches in this field. Therefore, this thesis selected Tianjin agriculture industry as an example and made analysis on it from the perspective of water footprints.
Firstly, this thesis analyzed the Tianjin agriculture and water resource conditions. Tianjin condition is firstly introduced from the geography position, district characters and nature conditions aspects. Then Tianjin agriculture economy condition is analyzed from the aspects of it weights in national economy and production structure of agriculture, forest, hunting and fishing. The water resources situation is analyzed from the total amount, character and water usage conditions aspects. Finally, the affects of the water resources shortage on agriculture is pointed out from the view of food production, social stability and agriculture products competitiveness.
Then this thesis made water footprints analysis on the agriculture planting based on the main products unit water footprints calculation. Firstly the changing trench of the water footprints for each agriculture product unites is analyzed. The average level of the whole country is compared and the advantage of Tianjin agriculture products is identified. The water consuming conditions and economy benefits are analyzed from water consuming degree and unite water value aspects. The reasonability and of Tianjin agriculture planting is evaluated and the optimization analysis of Tianjin agriculture planting is analyzed finally.
Finally, this thesis made prediction on the water footprint of Tianjin agriculture planting industry. Firstly, the water resource consuming condition is analyzed from the consuming trench, water resource shortage and GDP water footprint aspects. Then the Grey prediction model is established based on grey system theory. The water footprint trench of Tianjin Agriculture is predicted. The predicting results from 2010 to 2016 are obtained. Finally, the water footprint and prediction results of Tianjin agriculture are analyzed and relevant measures are proposed.
本文先对虚拟水和水足迹国内外相关研究的文献进行综述,分析研究的内容和研究趋势,并总结研究涉及的方面。通过研究现状分析发现国内以水足迹为角度对农业产业的分析研究还比较少,所以本文选择以天津市农业产业为例,基于水足迹的角度对其农作物种植业进行分析。
首先,本文分析了天津市农业和水资源现状。先从地理位置、区位特征和自然条件三个方面介绍了天津市概况,再从农业在国民经济中的比重和农林牧渔的产值结构两个角度剖析了天津市农业经济概况,然后从水资源总量、特性和用水状况三个方面分析了水资源现状,最后从粮食生产、社会稳定和农产品竞争力三个方面指出水资源短缺对农业的影响。
然后,本文在计算了天津市主要农产品的单位水足迹和水足迹基础上对农作物种植业进行了水足迹分析。首先分析了主要农产品历年单位水足迹的变化趋势,并与全国平均值做了比较研究,得出天津市农产品的比较优势;然后从耗水度和单位水价值两个方面分析了天津市农作物种植业的耗水情况和经济效益,并分析评价了天津市农作物种植业的合理性;最后对天津市农作物种植业进行了优化分析。
最后,本文对天津市农作物种植业的水足迹消费做了趋势预测。先从天津市主要农作物历年水足迹的消费趋势、水资源匮乏度和万元GDP水足迹三个方面分析了各农作物种植业的水资源利用情况;再以灰色系统理论为基础建立灰色预测模型,对天津市各农作物的水足迹趋势进行了预测,得到了2010-2016年的预测结果;最后针对天津市农作物的水足迹分析和预测结果分析,本文给出了相应的措施对策。
With the fast economy development and population increasing, the conflicts between water supply and demand are getting serious day by day; the water resource shortage has been one of the important factors that constrict the development of the social economy. In the water resource consuming structures of our country, the agriculture water covers a larger share. As the lifeline of the agriculture, water has been playing an irreplaceable position in the agriculture economy development and industry structure adjustment.
This thesis firstly made literature review on the virtual water and water footprints, and the research content and trend are also analyzed to conclude the involved aspects of this thesis. Through the review, it is found that there are still few researches in this field. Therefore, this thesis selected Tianjin agriculture industry as an example and made analysis on it from the perspective of water footprints.
Firstly, this thesis analyzed the Tianjin agriculture and water resource conditions. Tianjin condition is firstly introduced from the geography position, district characters and nature conditions aspects. Then Tianjin agriculture economy condition is analyzed from the aspects of it weights in national economy and production structure of agriculture, forest, hunting and fishing. The water resources situation is analyzed from the total amount, character and water usage conditions aspects. Finally, the affects of the water resources shortage on agriculture is pointed out from the view of food production, social stability and agriculture products competitiveness.
Then this thesis made water footprints analysis on the agriculture planting based on the main products unit water footprints calculation. Firstly the changing trench of the water footprints for each agriculture product unites is analyzed. The average level of the whole country is compared and the advantage of Tianjin agriculture products is identified. The water consuming conditions and economy benefits are analyzed from water consuming degree and unite water value aspects. The reasonability and of Tianjin agriculture planting is evaluated and the optimization analysis of Tianjin agriculture planting is analyzed finally.
Finally, this thesis made prediction on the water footprint of Tianjin agriculture planting industry. Firstly, the water resource consuming condition is analyzed from the consuming trench, water resource shortage and GDP water footprint aspects. Then the Grey prediction model is established based on grey system theory. The water footprint trench of Tianjin Agriculture is predicted. The predicting results from 2010 to 2016 are obtained. Finally, the water footprint and prediction results of Tianjin agriculture are analyzed and relevant measures are proposed.
引文
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