技术创新与区域经济增长
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摘要
21世纪的人类社会是以知识经济为标志的时代,科学技术日益显示出其对整个社会进步、经济发展的强大作用,技术创新更被认为是区域经济增长的决定因素,这已为世界各国经济发展的实践所证明。
改革开放以来,中国经济得到了迅猛的发展,但其经济增长方式是以高投入和资源高消耗为主的粗放式增长,并由此引起了一系列相关的政治、资源、环境、社会等问题。随着我国经济的进一步发展,工业化程度和规模的扩大,如何转变区域经济增长模式,保持区域内的经济持续稳定增长成为当前经济研讨的热点问题。吉林省作为老工业基地,经济增长模式一直以资金投入和对资源的长期过度开发的粗放式增长为主。随着资源优势的逐渐消失,吉林省经济增长呈现落后趋势。国务院2009年《关于进一步实施东北地区等老工业基地振兴战略的若干意见》中指出,推进企业技术进步,全面提升自主创新能力是振兴东北老工业基地工作的重点,那么如何利用技术创新对地区经济增长的促进作用,加速吉林省经济的快速发展就引起广泛关注。
本文试就这一问题,在借鉴前人研究成果的基础上,以吉林省老工业基地为研究对象,从区域经济增长理论的视角出发,对技术创新与经济增长之间的内在机理进行系统、深入理论研究,通过收集1995-2008年间有关数据构建模型,实证分析吉林省技术创新与经济增长之间的相关关系、因果关系和贡献率,客观评价吉林省技术创新能力的现状和问题,在保持经济持续和稳定增长的前提下,从宏观、产业和微观三个层面提出提升吉林省技术创新能力的对策建议,从而实现经济增长模式由要素和投资驱动型经济向创新驱动型经济增长模式的转变。本论文由引言——文献综述——理论分析——模型构建——实证分析——问题分析——结论等8个部分组成。
第一部分为引言。主要包括选题的背景与研究意义,研究思路、方法、主要内容和创新之处。
第二部分为文献综述。回顾了技术创新理论和基于技术创新的相关经济增长理论。技术创新理论部分包括熊彼特学派、新熊彼特学派、制度创新学派和国家创新系统学派等理论的研究,系统阐述了技术创新的产生和发展历程。经济增长理论中根据技术创新在经济增长中地位由外生到内生的变迁,重点阐述了与技术创新相关的稳定经济增长理论、新古典经济增长理论和新经济增长理论。
第三部分为理论分析。在理论上,从宏观、产业和微观三个层面分析技术创新对经济增长的作用机理。首先阐述了技术创新推动宏观经济增长的原理,包括技术创新与经济长波之间的因果关系;其次从产业层面阐述了技术创新是如何推动产业不断深化并导致经济增长的原理;最后从微观企业层面阐述了技术创新促进经济增长的作用机理。
第四部分为模型设计。在回顾国内外技术创新能力评价指标体系、基本原则和方法的基础上,结合吉林省实际情况,通过预选和筛选最终建立吉林省技术创新指标测度体系,并对1995-2008年间相关数据进行收集和整理。通过对整理后数据的变量共同度分析、因子提取和命名、确定权重,最终建立吉林省技术创新测度模型和增长预测模型,并测度了1995-2008年间吉林省各年份的技术创新能力指数,得出吉林省技术创新能力逐年增强的结论。
第五部分为实证分析。根据上文测度得出的技术创新能力指数,通过制作吉林省技术创新和经济增长的散点图和计算吉林省技术创新能力与经济增长的Pearson简单相关系数,分析了吉林省技术创新能力与经济增长的相关关系,得出两者之间高度正相关的结论。根据上文测度得出的技术创新能力指数和吉林省历年GDP值,建立技术创新与吉林省经济增长的回归模型,并对回归模型进行检验,得出吉林省经济增长的实际值和预测值基本吻合的结论;经济增长的实际值和预测值均在置信区间内,说明我们计算出的技术创新能力指数可信度较高的结论。采用柯布-道格拉斯函数和索洛余值法,测度了技术创新对吉林省经济增长的贡献率并评价了吉林省经济增长类型。
第六部分为问题分析。首先对具有代表性长春和吉林这两大中心城市以及吉林省民营企业的技术创新能力的现状和问题进行分析;然后对吉林省技术创新能力从投入、产出、支撑和环境四个方面进行评价,得出吉林省经济增长主要是投资驱动为主的相对粗放型的经济增长模式;最后得出吉林省技术创新存在着以政府宏观调控为主,企业投入不足、产学研结合不紧密等问题的结论。
第七部分为政策建议。针对本文的研究结论,结合吉林省技术创新方面存在的问题,从宏观政策、产业对策和微观战略三个层面对吉林省提升技术创新能力提出建设性意见。从宏观政策上要构建服务型政府,增强政府创新意识,完善技术创新的相关政策法规的制定,建立和完善吉林省区域技术创新体系以及扩大吉林省技术创新的区域交流与合作。从产业对策上来看,要做好产业集群规划,提升产业集群的创新能力,加强吉林省高新技术产业集群的建设以及推动吉林省战略性新兴产业集群的建设。在微观战略上要以老工业基地振兴为契机,确立企业的创新主体地位,完善吉林省产学研合作网络的建设,推动产品创新和成果转化以及完善吉林省科技中介服务体系建设。
第八部分为结论。总结了本文的主要结论。第一,技术创新是区域经济增长的推动力;第二,技术创新还为成为吉林省经济的主要的模式;第三,吉林省技术创新能力呈现逐年提升趋势;第四,吉林省技术创新的投入和产出中存在的问题;第五,提出提升吉林省技术创新能力的对策建议。最后提出了进一步研究的问题和方向,包括技术创新与经济增长的效应问题和技术创新促进经济增长机制及路径的研究。
Human society of 21th Century is the time which knowledge economy is the symbol. Technology indicates its huge effect on social development and economic growth increasingly. Technological innovation is still considered as determinant of regional economy increase and is proofed by economic growth of all countries in the world.
Since reform and open to the outside world, China’s economy obtains fast growth. But its economy growth is extensive growth which is gained mainly from high investment and high resources consumption. It invokes a series of political, resources, environmental and social problems. Along with the further economy growth of our country, expansion of extend and scale of industrialization, how to change the regional economy growth mode and maintain regional economy growth sustaining and stable growth become hot spot of current economy research. As an old industrial base, Jilin Province’s economy growth mode is also an extensive growth mainly gained by fund investment and long term resources consumption. By the disappearance of resources advantage, the economy growth of Jilin Province falls behind. In the documents of state council of 2009 named“Several opinions of implement of recovering strategy of old industrial base of North– Eastern region”, it pointed out that the main point of recovering old industrial base of North– Eastern area is to push enterprise technological development and fully improve self innovation capability. But how to implement technological development to push regional economy growth and expedite economy growth of Jilin Province is attracting abroad attention.
From the stand point of regional economy growth theory, this article takes old industrial base of Jilin Province as research objective and refers to previous research results to do systematical and in depth theoretical research on mechanism between technological innovation and economy growth. It also does case study of relationship between technological innovation capability of Jilin Province and economy growth, causality and contribution rate by the model built based on the data collected from 1995 to 2008. The current status and problems of technological innovation capability of Jilin Province is reviewed objectively by this article. On the premise of maintaining sustainable and continuous economy growth, the countermeasure suggestions of advancing technological innovation capability of Jilin Province are raised from aspects of macroscopic view, enterprise and microcosmic view to realize economy growth mode to transfer from element and investment driven economy mode to innovation driven economy mode. This article is composed of introduction– theoretical general review– theoretical analysis– model built up– case study– problem analysis– conclusion.
Part one is introduction. It mainly includes background and research significance, current research status of home and abroad, research thinking, research method and innovation.
Part two is literature review. The technological innovation theory and related economy growth based on technological innovation are reviewed. Technological innovation theory part includes theoretical research of Schumpeter school, new Schumpeter school, system innovation school and country innovation system school. The origin of technological innovation and the course of development are also discussed systematically. In the economy growth theory, the stable economy growth theory related to technological development, new classic economy growth theory and new economy growth theory are addressed based on the transformation.
Part three is theoretical analysis. The mechanism of the effect of technological innovation to economy growth in theoretical level is analyzed from macroscopic, industry and microcosmic. Firstly the theory of technological innovation promoting macroscopic economy growth including cause and effect relationship of technological innovation and economy long wave is set forth; Secondly the theory of how technological innovation promotes industry to keep on forward and induces economy growth in industry level; Finally the mechanism of technological innovation to promote economy increase is set forth in microcosmic level.
Part four is model design. Based on reviewing of technological innovation capability evaluation index system, basic principle and method, combined with actual situation of Jilin Province, technological innovation index measurement system of Jilin Province is set up finally by preselect and screening. The related data from 1995 to 2008 are collected and organized as well. After analyzing of data variable communality, extracting and naming of factors, confirming of weights, technological innovation measurement model and growth prediction model is set up. The technological innovation capability index from 1995 to 2008 is measured and the conclusion is that the technological innovation capability of Jilin Province is increased year by year.
Part five is case study. The relationship between technological innovation capability of Jilin Province and economy growth of Jilin Province is analyzed, which the conclusion is the relationship of above two aspects is highly related, by the scatter diagram of technological innovation and economy growth of Jilin Province and Pearson simple correlation coefficient of technological innovation capability and economy growth which are obtained by using technological innovation index measured above. The regression model of technological innovation and economy growth of Jilin Province is set up by using the technological innovation index measured above and GDP of Jilin Province over the years. It is concluded that actual value of economy growth of Jilin Province and predictive value are consistent basically by examining the regress model. The actual value and predictive value of economy growth both are in the range of confidence which can be concluded that degree of confidence of technological growth innovation capability index we calculated is relative high. The contribution rate of technological innovation to economy growth of Jilin Province is measured by Cobb-Douglas function and Solow surplus value algorithm and the contribution rate of technological innovation to economy growth of Jilin Province is evaluated.
Part six is problem analysis. Firstly typical central cities of Changchun and Jilin and the current situation and problems of technological innovation of private enterprise of Jilin Province are analyzed. Secondly investment, output, support and environment of technological innovation capability of Jilin Province are evaluated. The conclusion is that economy growth of Jilin Province is mainly investment driven extensive economy growth mode. Finally it is concludes that the technological innovation of Jilin Province is mainly government macro controlled, lacking of enterprise investment. Industry-university-research is not combined tightly.
Part seven is policy suggestions. According to researching conclusion of this article and combined with the problems of technological innovation of Jilin Province, the constructive suggestions of boosting technological innovation of Jilin Province are put forward from three aspects of macro policy, industrial countermeasure and micro strategy. From macro strategy policy it is necessary to construct service oriented government, to improve government innovation consciousness, to consummate the constitution of policy and regulation related to technological innovation, to set up the system of regional technological innovation of Jilin Province and to increase the regional communication and cooperation of technological innovation of Jilin Province. From stand point of industrial countermeasure, it is necessary to complete industry integrity planning, to increase the technological innovation capability of industrial cluster, to enforce the construction of industrial cluster of Jilin Province and to motivate the construction of strategic newly developing industrial cluster. In micro strategy, it is essential to take the chance of revitalizing old industrial base to set up principle status of enterprise innovation, to consummate construction of industry- university-research network of Jilin Province, to motivate production innovation and its achievement transformation and to consummate construction of technological intermediary service system of Jilin Province.
Part eight is conclusion. The main conclusion of this article is summarized. Firstly technological innovation is impetus of regional economy growth; Secondly technological innovation doesn’t become main mode of economy growth of Jilin Province yet. Thirdly the technological innovation capability of Jilin Province shows increasing trend year by year; fourthly the problems exist in the investment and output of technological innovation of Jilin Province; Fifthly the countermeasure and suggestion of increasing technological innovation capability of Jilin Province are put forward. The problems and direction which are researched further are put forward as well, including the research of mechanism of technological innovation promoting economy growth and the path of advancing technological innovation.
改革开放以来,中国经济得到了迅猛的发展,但其经济增长方式是以高投入和资源高消耗为主的粗放式增长,并由此引起了一系列相关的政治、资源、环境、社会等问题。随着我国经济的进一步发展,工业化程度和规模的扩大,如何转变区域经济增长模式,保持区域内的经济持续稳定增长成为当前经济研讨的热点问题。吉林省作为老工业基地,经济增长模式一直以资金投入和对资源的长期过度开发的粗放式增长为主。随着资源优势的逐渐消失,吉林省经济增长呈现落后趋势。国务院2009年《关于进一步实施东北地区等老工业基地振兴战略的若干意见》中指出,推进企业技术进步,全面提升自主创新能力是振兴东北老工业基地工作的重点,那么如何利用技术创新对地区经济增长的促进作用,加速吉林省经济的快速发展就引起广泛关注。
本文试就这一问题,在借鉴前人研究成果的基础上,以吉林省老工业基地为研究对象,从区域经济增长理论的视角出发,对技术创新与经济增长之间的内在机理进行系统、深入理论研究,通过收集1995-2008年间有关数据构建模型,实证分析吉林省技术创新与经济增长之间的相关关系、因果关系和贡献率,客观评价吉林省技术创新能力的现状和问题,在保持经济持续和稳定增长的前提下,从宏观、产业和微观三个层面提出提升吉林省技术创新能力的对策建议,从而实现经济增长模式由要素和投资驱动型经济向创新驱动型经济增长模式的转变。本论文由引言——文献综述——理论分析——模型构建——实证分析——问题分析——结论等8个部分组成。
第一部分为引言。主要包括选题的背景与研究意义,研究思路、方法、主要内容和创新之处。
第二部分为文献综述。回顾了技术创新理论和基于技术创新的相关经济增长理论。技术创新理论部分包括熊彼特学派、新熊彼特学派、制度创新学派和国家创新系统学派等理论的研究,系统阐述了技术创新的产生和发展历程。经济增长理论中根据技术创新在经济增长中地位由外生到内生的变迁,重点阐述了与技术创新相关的稳定经济增长理论、新古典经济增长理论和新经济增长理论。
第三部分为理论分析。在理论上,从宏观、产业和微观三个层面分析技术创新对经济增长的作用机理。首先阐述了技术创新推动宏观经济增长的原理,包括技术创新与经济长波之间的因果关系;其次从产业层面阐述了技术创新是如何推动产业不断深化并导致经济增长的原理;最后从微观企业层面阐述了技术创新促进经济增长的作用机理。
第四部分为模型设计。在回顾国内外技术创新能力评价指标体系、基本原则和方法的基础上,结合吉林省实际情况,通过预选和筛选最终建立吉林省技术创新指标测度体系,并对1995-2008年间相关数据进行收集和整理。通过对整理后数据的变量共同度分析、因子提取和命名、确定权重,最终建立吉林省技术创新测度模型和增长预测模型,并测度了1995-2008年间吉林省各年份的技术创新能力指数,得出吉林省技术创新能力逐年增强的结论。
第五部分为实证分析。根据上文测度得出的技术创新能力指数,通过制作吉林省技术创新和经济增长的散点图和计算吉林省技术创新能力与经济增长的Pearson简单相关系数,分析了吉林省技术创新能力与经济增长的相关关系,得出两者之间高度正相关的结论。根据上文测度得出的技术创新能力指数和吉林省历年GDP值,建立技术创新与吉林省经济增长的回归模型,并对回归模型进行检验,得出吉林省经济增长的实际值和预测值基本吻合的结论;经济增长的实际值和预测值均在置信区间内,说明我们计算出的技术创新能力指数可信度较高的结论。采用柯布-道格拉斯函数和索洛余值法,测度了技术创新对吉林省经济增长的贡献率并评价了吉林省经济增长类型。
第六部分为问题分析。首先对具有代表性长春和吉林这两大中心城市以及吉林省民营企业的技术创新能力的现状和问题进行分析;然后对吉林省技术创新能力从投入、产出、支撑和环境四个方面进行评价,得出吉林省经济增长主要是投资驱动为主的相对粗放型的经济增长模式;最后得出吉林省技术创新存在着以政府宏观调控为主,企业投入不足、产学研结合不紧密等问题的结论。
第七部分为政策建议。针对本文的研究结论,结合吉林省技术创新方面存在的问题,从宏观政策、产业对策和微观战略三个层面对吉林省提升技术创新能力提出建设性意见。从宏观政策上要构建服务型政府,增强政府创新意识,完善技术创新的相关政策法规的制定,建立和完善吉林省区域技术创新体系以及扩大吉林省技术创新的区域交流与合作。从产业对策上来看,要做好产业集群规划,提升产业集群的创新能力,加强吉林省高新技术产业集群的建设以及推动吉林省战略性新兴产业集群的建设。在微观战略上要以老工业基地振兴为契机,确立企业的创新主体地位,完善吉林省产学研合作网络的建设,推动产品创新和成果转化以及完善吉林省科技中介服务体系建设。
第八部分为结论。总结了本文的主要结论。第一,技术创新是区域经济增长的推动力;第二,技术创新还为成为吉林省经济的主要的模式;第三,吉林省技术创新能力呈现逐年提升趋势;第四,吉林省技术创新的投入和产出中存在的问题;第五,提出提升吉林省技术创新能力的对策建议。最后提出了进一步研究的问题和方向,包括技术创新与经济增长的效应问题和技术创新促进经济增长机制及路径的研究。
Human society of 21th Century is the time which knowledge economy is the symbol. Technology indicates its huge effect on social development and economic growth increasingly. Technological innovation is still considered as determinant of regional economy increase and is proofed by economic growth of all countries in the world.
Since reform and open to the outside world, China’s economy obtains fast growth. But its economy growth is extensive growth which is gained mainly from high investment and high resources consumption. It invokes a series of political, resources, environmental and social problems. Along with the further economy growth of our country, expansion of extend and scale of industrialization, how to change the regional economy growth mode and maintain regional economy growth sustaining and stable growth become hot spot of current economy research. As an old industrial base, Jilin Province’s economy growth mode is also an extensive growth mainly gained by fund investment and long term resources consumption. By the disappearance of resources advantage, the economy growth of Jilin Province falls behind. In the documents of state council of 2009 named“Several opinions of implement of recovering strategy of old industrial base of North– Eastern region”, it pointed out that the main point of recovering old industrial base of North– Eastern area is to push enterprise technological development and fully improve self innovation capability. But how to implement technological development to push regional economy growth and expedite economy growth of Jilin Province is attracting abroad attention.
From the stand point of regional economy growth theory, this article takes old industrial base of Jilin Province as research objective and refers to previous research results to do systematical and in depth theoretical research on mechanism between technological innovation and economy growth. It also does case study of relationship between technological innovation capability of Jilin Province and economy growth, causality and contribution rate by the model built based on the data collected from 1995 to 2008. The current status and problems of technological innovation capability of Jilin Province is reviewed objectively by this article. On the premise of maintaining sustainable and continuous economy growth, the countermeasure suggestions of advancing technological innovation capability of Jilin Province are raised from aspects of macroscopic view, enterprise and microcosmic view to realize economy growth mode to transfer from element and investment driven economy mode to innovation driven economy mode. This article is composed of introduction– theoretical general review– theoretical analysis– model built up– case study– problem analysis– conclusion.
Part one is introduction. It mainly includes background and research significance, current research status of home and abroad, research thinking, research method and innovation.
Part two is literature review. The technological innovation theory and related economy growth based on technological innovation are reviewed. Technological innovation theory part includes theoretical research of Schumpeter school, new Schumpeter school, system innovation school and country innovation system school. The origin of technological innovation and the course of development are also discussed systematically. In the economy growth theory, the stable economy growth theory related to technological development, new classic economy growth theory and new economy growth theory are addressed based on the transformation.
Part three is theoretical analysis. The mechanism of the effect of technological innovation to economy growth in theoretical level is analyzed from macroscopic, industry and microcosmic. Firstly the theory of technological innovation promoting macroscopic economy growth including cause and effect relationship of technological innovation and economy long wave is set forth; Secondly the theory of how technological innovation promotes industry to keep on forward and induces economy growth in industry level; Finally the mechanism of technological innovation to promote economy increase is set forth in microcosmic level.
Part four is model design. Based on reviewing of technological innovation capability evaluation index system, basic principle and method, combined with actual situation of Jilin Province, technological innovation index measurement system of Jilin Province is set up finally by preselect and screening. The related data from 1995 to 2008 are collected and organized as well. After analyzing of data variable communality, extracting and naming of factors, confirming of weights, technological innovation measurement model and growth prediction model is set up. The technological innovation capability index from 1995 to 2008 is measured and the conclusion is that the technological innovation capability of Jilin Province is increased year by year.
Part five is case study. The relationship between technological innovation capability of Jilin Province and economy growth of Jilin Province is analyzed, which the conclusion is the relationship of above two aspects is highly related, by the scatter diagram of technological innovation and economy growth of Jilin Province and Pearson simple correlation coefficient of technological innovation capability and economy growth which are obtained by using technological innovation index measured above. The regression model of technological innovation and economy growth of Jilin Province is set up by using the technological innovation index measured above and GDP of Jilin Province over the years. It is concluded that actual value of economy growth of Jilin Province and predictive value are consistent basically by examining the regress model. The actual value and predictive value of economy growth both are in the range of confidence which can be concluded that degree of confidence of technological growth innovation capability index we calculated is relative high. The contribution rate of technological innovation to economy growth of Jilin Province is measured by Cobb-Douglas function and Solow surplus value algorithm and the contribution rate of technological innovation to economy growth of Jilin Province is evaluated.
Part six is problem analysis. Firstly typical central cities of Changchun and Jilin and the current situation and problems of technological innovation of private enterprise of Jilin Province are analyzed. Secondly investment, output, support and environment of technological innovation capability of Jilin Province are evaluated. The conclusion is that economy growth of Jilin Province is mainly investment driven extensive economy growth mode. Finally it is concludes that the technological innovation of Jilin Province is mainly government macro controlled, lacking of enterprise investment. Industry-university-research is not combined tightly.
Part seven is policy suggestions. According to researching conclusion of this article and combined with the problems of technological innovation of Jilin Province, the constructive suggestions of boosting technological innovation of Jilin Province are put forward from three aspects of macro policy, industrial countermeasure and micro strategy. From macro strategy policy it is necessary to construct service oriented government, to improve government innovation consciousness, to consummate the constitution of policy and regulation related to technological innovation, to set up the system of regional technological innovation of Jilin Province and to increase the regional communication and cooperation of technological innovation of Jilin Province. From stand point of industrial countermeasure, it is necessary to complete industry integrity planning, to increase the technological innovation capability of industrial cluster, to enforce the construction of industrial cluster of Jilin Province and to motivate the construction of strategic newly developing industrial cluster. In micro strategy, it is essential to take the chance of revitalizing old industrial base to set up principle status of enterprise innovation, to consummate construction of industry- university-research network of Jilin Province, to motivate production innovation and its achievement transformation and to consummate construction of technological intermediary service system of Jilin Province.
Part eight is conclusion. The main conclusion of this article is summarized. Firstly technological innovation is impetus of regional economy growth; Secondly technological innovation doesn’t become main mode of economy growth of Jilin Province yet. Thirdly the technological innovation capability of Jilin Province shows increasing trend year by year; fourthly the problems exist in the investment and output of technological innovation of Jilin Province; Fifthly the countermeasure and suggestion of increasing technological innovation capability of Jilin Province are put forward. The problems and direction which are researched further are put forward as well, including the research of mechanism of technological innovation promoting economy growth and the path of advancing technological innovation.
引文
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