金融风险及防范对策研究
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摘要
作为一个双重转型国家,经过三十多年的改革开放,我国的经济建设取得了举世瞩目的成就,金融领域的改革也不例外。但与此同时,金融风险以及不稳定因素的累计也令人担忧。2008年金融危机给全球经济带来了不小的冲击,虽然中国在这场危机中损失较小,但并不能说明中国已经具备了非常稳定的金融体系,事实恰恰相反,还需进一步改进和完善金融体系建设。
本文综合运用多个学科的理论,从金融风险理论入手,结合定性与定量研究方法,分析我国金融业存在的风险及主要影响因素,立足我国转型经济特征,探讨如何通过有效措施防范金融风险、保持金融稳定,提出较为系统的政策建议。
第一章导论部分主要讨论金融风险的理论和实践意义,介绍国内外学者对金融风险的研究情况,梳理已有的金融风险研究成果,主要包括金融风险的宏观理论分析、金融风险的微观理论分析、金融风险来源及影响因素,最后给出本文的内容框架和研究方法,并对本文的创新点及不足之处进行总结。
第二章从财政的角度对金融风险的基本理论进行分析。本章从经济学原理分析金融风险的生成机理,介绍金融风险成因的相关理论与假说。在分析金融风险与财政风险联动机制的关系时,首先从财政与金融的关系入手进行分析,其次研究了金融风险向财政风险的转化、财政风险向金融风险的转化、金融风险和财政风险相互转化的原因,并论述金融风险与财政风险联动机制的博弈模型。最后介绍了金融风险的两大类型,即微观金融风险和宏观金融风险,得出政府应当承担宏观金融风险财政责任的结论。
第三章研究了国外防范化解金融风险的主要经验。为了应对此次全球金融危机,各国政府都采取了积极的财政政策与货币政策,以防范和化解金融风险,促进经济的复苏。本章主要通过对美国、欧盟、日本和俄罗斯的实证分析,较为系统地探讨了各国政府应对突发性金融危机的政策措施,并简要评价了政策实施的效果,在此基础上总结了各国应对金融风险的经验教训。
第四章分析我国金融业面临的风险,划分了三个时间段进行研究。首先,介绍了计划经济体制下的金融风险主要表现为政策风险和操作风险。其次,介绍了转轨时期金融风险的基本类型及生成机理,分析了金融风险对我国经济的影响。再次,分析了金融自由化对国内金融机构和金融监管体系的影响。最后,对我国防范金融风险的政策进行了回顾。
第五章研究了金融风险测量与危机预警模型。首先介绍了金融风险管理模型,详细分析了市场风险模型、信用风险模型以及金融风险管理模型在中国的应用。其次,介绍了金融预警模型,具体分析了金融预警模型的基本思想、金融预警模型的几种形式、金融预警模型在中国的应用及金融预警模型的评价和发展方向。
第六章提出了防范金融风险的对策建议。首先,提出了防范金融风险的财政政策,建议进一步加强财政对金融体系的财务监管,完善财政注资,推进金融改革以推动完善资产管理公司运行机制,增强财政体系防范风险的能力。其次,提出了防范金融风险的货币政策,建议进一步完善货币政策工具,确立合理的货币政策目标,疏通货币政策传导机制。再次,提出了防范金融风险的宏观审慎监管政策,建议进一步加强宏观审慎监管。最后,提出了防范金融风险的其他配套措施,建议进一步健全和完善国有商业银行公司治理结构,适时建立存款保险制度,稳步推进金融自由化。
金融风险及其防范对策是各国在经济发展过程中需要重点关注的问题。客观地说,在微观层面上,关于金融风险及防范政策的研究成果较多,但在宏观层面上,许多领域仍需深入探讨。全文的主要创新有以下两点：
第一,本文借鉴世界金融危机的经验教训,在金融风险理论研究的基础上,从宏观的角度分析金融风险和财政风险的共生性及联动传导机制。立足于中国金融改革与发展,全面系统地分析中国金融体系面临的风险状况,探讨中国应对金融风险的财政政策和货币政策。
第二,从与财政联结的角度研究金融风险,试图对该问题提出系统全面的学理和经验解释,探索新形势下如何协同各方力量有效地防范金融风险,丰富以转型经济国家为背景的防范金融风险研究。
由于本人学术水平有限,本文尚有许多不足之处,包括：
第一,随着国际资本流动的加速,国内外市场之间的传染效应和溢出效应也更加明显,其传导机制及有效防范措施等,仍需进一步加强研究。
第二,财政风险和金融风险的联动问题是转轨国家极具代表性的一种经济现象,但由于文献资料有限,获取相关的数据比较困难,可能会影响定量分析的深度和广度。
第三,金融基础设施的完善程度与金融风险之间是否存在必然的因果关系,金融风险与经济发展之间存在何种量化关系,金融监管政策如何进行优化等,需要进一步探讨和研究。
As a transitional state, China has implemented reform and opening-up policy for more than thirty years. During this period, China's economy made marvelous achievements, so did reform in financial circles. However, people still worry about the accumulating financial risks and other factors making financial system unstable. China did successfully bear the impact of the global financial crisis in2008, but it does not mean that our financial system has the ability to resist any risk. On the contrary, there are many potential factors which can make our financial system unstable.
This dissertation makes use of theories from many disciplines. It starts with the theories of financial risk, analyzes risks and main factors in financial field qualitatively and quantitatively, discusses how to prevent financial risks effectively, and comes up with relatively systematic measures to stabilize financial system.
The first chapter, introduction, mainly discusses theoretical significance and practical significance of financial risk, presents research on financial risk at home and abroad, combs research findings, including macro theoretical analysis, micro theoretical analysis, and resource and influence factors of financial risk. At last, it introduces the frame and research methods of this dissertation, and summarizes its innovations and shortcomings.
The second chapter analyzes basic theory of financial risk from the perspective of public finance. Starting from basic theories of economics, it analyzes formation mechanism of financial risk and introduces related theories and hypotheses of financial risk. It also analyzes interaction mechanism between financial risks and fiscal risks. First, it analyzes relation between public finance and finance. Second, it does research on how financial risk is transformed into public financial risk, and how public financial risk is transformed into financial risk. It also explains game model of reaction between public financial risk and financial risk. Finally, it introduces two types of financial risks, micro financial risk and macro financial risk, and then comes to the conclusion that government should shoulder fiscal responsibilities of macro financial risk.
The third chapter focuses on main experience of how to prevent and dissolve financial risk. To cope with the global financial crisis in2008, governments adopted positive fiscal policy and monetary policy, which aimed at achieving economic revival. By doing empirical research on America, European Union, Japan and Russia, this chapter relatively systematically discusses policies which governments adopted to reply economic crisis which appears suddenly, and makes brief comments on effects of these policies, on the basis of which it summarizes experiences and lessons from what governments have done to deal with financial risk.
The fourth chapter analyzes risks which financial field encounters. First, it introduces that financial risk under planned economy system are presented as policy risk and operation risk. Second, it presents basic types and formation mechanism of financial risk during transition period, and analyzes influence of financial risk on economy. Third, it explains influence of financial liberalization on domestic financial institutions and financial supervision system. Last, it reviews policies aiming at guarding against financial risk.
The fifth chapter discusses the financial crisis early warning and risk measurement model. First, it introduces financial risk management models; analyzes market risk model, credit risk model and financial risk management model. Second, it introduces the financial early-warning model; analyzes the basic idea of the financial early-warning model, several forms of financial early-warning model, the financial early-warning model applied in China and development of financial early-warning model.
The sixth chapter comes up with suggestion to guard against financial risk. First, it brings up fiscal policy to prevent financial risk, and suggests increasing financial allocation, promoting financial reform to perfect operation mechanism of asset management companies, and strengthening the ability of public finance system to prevent risks. Second, it puts forward monetary policy to prevent financial risks, and suggests providing more instruments of monetary policy, establishing proper targets of monetary policy, and making conduct mechanism of monetary policy run smoothly. Third, it raises policies aiming at macro prudential supervision to prevent financial risks, and suggests furthering macro prudential supervision. Finally, it comes up with other supporting measure to guard against financial risks, and suggests perfecting company governance structure of state-owned commercial bank, establishing deposit insurance system, and forwarding financial liberalization steadily.
Financial risk and its countermeasures are focuses of governments when they promote development of economy. To speak objectively, there have been many researches on financial risk and its countermeasures from the view of micro. However, from the view of macro, it still needs more deeply discussion in many fields. There are two innovations in this dissertation.
First, drawing lessons from global financial crisis, this dissertation analyzes the symbiosis and interaction between financial risk and public financial risk on the basis of theoretic research on financial risk from the view of macro. Basing on reform and opening-up of China's finance, this chapter analyzes risks that China's financial system encounters, and discusses monetary policy and fiscal policy which can successfully tackle financial risk.
Second, this dissertation attempts to bring up systematic theories and experiences to explain this question from the angle of interaction between public finance and finance, discusses how to integrate all forces to prevent financial risks effectively under new circumstance, and enriches research on how to guard against financial risks in countries in transition.
There are some shortcomings in this dissertation because of my academic level. These shortcomings are as follows:
First, with acceleration of flow of international capital, contagion effect and spillover effect between foreign market and domestic market will become obvious, and it is necessary to promote research on their conduct mechanism and effectively preventive measures.
Second, interaction between fiscal risk and financial risk is a typical economic phenomenon in many transitional countries. However, depth and width of qualitative analysis of this phenomenon will be influenced by limited documents and difficulties of obtaining related data.
Third, we should keep on discussing and doing research on some topics. They are whether there exists inevitable causality between financial infrastructure and financial risk, what quantitative relationship between financial risk and economic development is, and how to optimize policies of financial supervision.
本文综合运用多个学科的理论,从金融风险理论入手,结合定性与定量研究方法,分析我国金融业存在的风险及主要影响因素,立足我国转型经济特征,探讨如何通过有效措施防范金融风险、保持金融稳定,提出较为系统的政策建议。
第一章导论部分主要讨论金融风险的理论和实践意义,介绍国内外学者对金融风险的研究情况,梳理已有的金融风险研究成果,主要包括金融风险的宏观理论分析、金融风险的微观理论分析、金融风险来源及影响因素,最后给出本文的内容框架和研究方法,并对本文的创新点及不足之处进行总结。
第二章从财政的角度对金融风险的基本理论进行分析。本章从经济学原理分析金融风险的生成机理,介绍金融风险成因的相关理论与假说。在分析金融风险与财政风险联动机制的关系时,首先从财政与金融的关系入手进行分析,其次研究了金融风险向财政风险的转化、财政风险向金融风险的转化、金融风险和财政风险相互转化的原因,并论述金融风险与财政风险联动机制的博弈模型。最后介绍了金融风险的两大类型,即微观金融风险和宏观金融风险,得出政府应当承担宏观金融风险财政责任的结论。
第三章研究了国外防范化解金融风险的主要经验。为了应对此次全球金融危机,各国政府都采取了积极的财政政策与货币政策,以防范和化解金融风险,促进经济的复苏。本章主要通过对美国、欧盟、日本和俄罗斯的实证分析,较为系统地探讨了各国政府应对突发性金融危机的政策措施,并简要评价了政策实施的效果,在此基础上总结了各国应对金融风险的经验教训。
第四章分析我国金融业面临的风险,划分了三个时间段进行研究。首先,介绍了计划经济体制下的金融风险主要表现为政策风险和操作风险。其次,介绍了转轨时期金融风险的基本类型及生成机理,分析了金融风险对我国经济的影响。再次,分析了金融自由化对国内金融机构和金融监管体系的影响。最后,对我国防范金融风险的政策进行了回顾。
第五章研究了金融风险测量与危机预警模型。首先介绍了金融风险管理模型,详细分析了市场风险模型、信用风险模型以及金融风险管理模型在中国的应用。其次,介绍了金融预警模型,具体分析了金融预警模型的基本思想、金融预警模型的几种形式、金融预警模型在中国的应用及金融预警模型的评价和发展方向。
第六章提出了防范金融风险的对策建议。首先,提出了防范金融风险的财政政策,建议进一步加强财政对金融体系的财务监管,完善财政注资,推进金融改革以推动完善资产管理公司运行机制,增强财政体系防范风险的能力。其次,提出了防范金融风险的货币政策,建议进一步完善货币政策工具,确立合理的货币政策目标,疏通货币政策传导机制。再次,提出了防范金融风险的宏观审慎监管政策,建议进一步加强宏观审慎监管。最后,提出了防范金融风险的其他配套措施,建议进一步健全和完善国有商业银行公司治理结构,适时建立存款保险制度,稳步推进金融自由化。
金融风险及其防范对策是各国在经济发展过程中需要重点关注的问题。客观地说,在微观层面上,关于金融风险及防范政策的研究成果较多,但在宏观层面上,许多领域仍需深入探讨。全文的主要创新有以下两点：
第一,本文借鉴世界金融危机的经验教训,在金融风险理论研究的基础上,从宏观的角度分析金融风险和财政风险的共生性及联动传导机制。立足于中国金融改革与发展,全面系统地分析中国金融体系面临的风险状况,探讨中国应对金融风险的财政政策和货币政策。
第二,从与财政联结的角度研究金融风险,试图对该问题提出系统全面的学理和经验解释,探索新形势下如何协同各方力量有效地防范金融风险,丰富以转型经济国家为背景的防范金融风险研究。
由于本人学术水平有限,本文尚有许多不足之处,包括：
第一,随着国际资本流动的加速,国内外市场之间的传染效应和溢出效应也更加明显,其传导机制及有效防范措施等,仍需进一步加强研究。
第二,财政风险和金融风险的联动问题是转轨国家极具代表性的一种经济现象,但由于文献资料有限,获取相关的数据比较困难,可能会影响定量分析的深度和广度。
第三,金融基础设施的完善程度与金融风险之间是否存在必然的因果关系,金融风险与经济发展之间存在何种量化关系,金融监管政策如何进行优化等,需要进一步探讨和研究。
As a transitional state, China has implemented reform and opening-up policy for more than thirty years. During this period, China's economy made marvelous achievements, so did reform in financial circles. However, people still worry about the accumulating financial risks and other factors making financial system unstable. China did successfully bear the impact of the global financial crisis in2008, but it does not mean that our financial system has the ability to resist any risk. On the contrary, there are many potential factors which can make our financial system unstable.
This dissertation makes use of theories from many disciplines. It starts with the theories of financial risk, analyzes risks and main factors in financial field qualitatively and quantitatively, discusses how to prevent financial risks effectively, and comes up with relatively systematic measures to stabilize financial system.
The first chapter, introduction, mainly discusses theoretical significance and practical significance of financial risk, presents research on financial risk at home and abroad, combs research findings, including macro theoretical analysis, micro theoretical analysis, and resource and influence factors of financial risk. At last, it introduces the frame and research methods of this dissertation, and summarizes its innovations and shortcomings.
The second chapter analyzes basic theory of financial risk from the perspective of public finance. Starting from basic theories of economics, it analyzes formation mechanism of financial risk and introduces related theories and hypotheses of financial risk. It also analyzes interaction mechanism between financial risks and fiscal risks. First, it analyzes relation between public finance and finance. Second, it does research on how financial risk is transformed into public financial risk, and how public financial risk is transformed into financial risk. It also explains game model of reaction between public financial risk and financial risk. Finally, it introduces two types of financial risks, micro financial risk and macro financial risk, and then comes to the conclusion that government should shoulder fiscal responsibilities of macro financial risk.
The third chapter focuses on main experience of how to prevent and dissolve financial risk. To cope with the global financial crisis in2008, governments adopted positive fiscal policy and monetary policy, which aimed at achieving economic revival. By doing empirical research on America, European Union, Japan and Russia, this chapter relatively systematically discusses policies which governments adopted to reply economic crisis which appears suddenly, and makes brief comments on effects of these policies, on the basis of which it summarizes experiences and lessons from what governments have done to deal with financial risk.
The fourth chapter analyzes risks which financial field encounters. First, it introduces that financial risk under planned economy system are presented as policy risk and operation risk. Second, it presents basic types and formation mechanism of financial risk during transition period, and analyzes influence of financial risk on economy. Third, it explains influence of financial liberalization on domestic financial institutions and financial supervision system. Last, it reviews policies aiming at guarding against financial risk.
The fifth chapter discusses the financial crisis early warning and risk measurement model. First, it introduces financial risk management models; analyzes market risk model, credit risk model and financial risk management model. Second, it introduces the financial early-warning model; analyzes the basic idea of the financial early-warning model, several forms of financial early-warning model, the financial early-warning model applied in China and development of financial early-warning model.
The sixth chapter comes up with suggestion to guard against financial risk. First, it brings up fiscal policy to prevent financial risk, and suggests increasing financial allocation, promoting financial reform to perfect operation mechanism of asset management companies, and strengthening the ability of public finance system to prevent risks. Second, it puts forward monetary policy to prevent financial risks, and suggests providing more instruments of monetary policy, establishing proper targets of monetary policy, and making conduct mechanism of monetary policy run smoothly. Third, it raises policies aiming at macro prudential supervision to prevent financial risks, and suggests furthering macro prudential supervision. Finally, it comes up with other supporting measure to guard against financial risks, and suggests perfecting company governance structure of state-owned commercial bank, establishing deposit insurance system, and forwarding financial liberalization steadily.
Financial risk and its countermeasures are focuses of governments when they promote development of economy. To speak objectively, there have been many researches on financial risk and its countermeasures from the view of micro. However, from the view of macro, it still needs more deeply discussion in many fields. There are two innovations in this dissertation.
First, drawing lessons from global financial crisis, this dissertation analyzes the symbiosis and interaction between financial risk and public financial risk on the basis of theoretic research on financial risk from the view of macro. Basing on reform and opening-up of China's finance, this chapter analyzes risks that China's financial system encounters, and discusses monetary policy and fiscal policy which can successfully tackle financial risk.
Second, this dissertation attempts to bring up systematic theories and experiences to explain this question from the angle of interaction between public finance and finance, discusses how to integrate all forces to prevent financial risks effectively under new circumstance, and enriches research on how to guard against financial risks in countries in transition.
There are some shortcomings in this dissertation because of my academic level. These shortcomings are as follows:
First, with acceleration of flow of international capital, contagion effect and spillover effect between foreign market and domestic market will become obvious, and it is necessary to promote research on their conduct mechanism and effectively preventive measures.
Second, interaction between fiscal risk and financial risk is a typical economic phenomenon in many transitional countries. However, depth and width of qualitative analysis of this phenomenon will be influenced by limited documents and difficulties of obtaining related data.
Third, we should keep on discussing and doing research on some topics. They are whether there exists inevitable causality between financial infrastructure and financial risk, what quantitative relationship between financial risk and economic development is, and how to optimize policies of financial supervision.
引文
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[5]金歌：《2009金融风暴下的中国》,[M],北京,中国社会科学出版社,2009年
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