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城镇化对我国食物消费系统氮素流动和农田氮素循环的影响
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摘要
随着收入的增长以及城市化水平的提高,城乡食品消费结构发生显著变化,必将改变氮素养分流动模式及其农田生态系统的养分循环,进而带来巨大的生态环境压力和严重的污染问题。为此,本研究利用调查数据、文献资料和统计数据,采用物质流分析的方法,就城镇化发展对我国食物消费体系氮素流动特征、循环利用及其环境排放的影响、城镇化对全国、北京及河北不同年代农田氮素循环的影响进行了初步探讨,以期为解决城镇化过程中城镇本身的生态环境问题及农田养分循环中的生态环境问题提供依据。研究结果表明:
     2002年我国城镇居民人均消费氮量为4.770kg,高于农村居民(4.314kg)10%。1982年到2002年,随着城镇化率的提高,城镇居民消费的食物氮提高了145.3%,农村减少了8.1%;城镇排入水体环境的氮增加了18.4倍,而氮素循环利用率只有13.0%,降低了40个百分点。情景分析结果表明,如果在人口增加的同时,食物结构达到国家营养纲要要求、日本及欧美的水平,到2010年我国总氮消费量比2002年将增多196.1万吨~419.3万吨,城镇产生的粪尿和垃圾中氮将增加179.7万吨~368.3万吨。因此,伴随城镇化快速发展,在带来食物氮素需求和环境排放氮素大幅度增加的同时,也会对动植物生产带来巨大压力。
     城镇居民食用氮与排泄的粪尿氮高于农村居民。人均排入水体氮量,1982年城镇与农村居民大体相当,1992年、2002年城镇居民是农村居民2.8倍;粪尿氮排入水体比率,1982年城镇与农村基本相当,在7.5%左右,但到2002年城镇粪尿氮排入水体比率高达56.7%,比农村要高34个百分点。情景分析结果表明,如果在人口增加的同时还要改善食物结构增加蛋白质摄入量,2020年粪尿氮总产生量将增加121万吨~418万吨,排入水体氮量也将增加41万吨~182万吨。提高粪尿还田率、污水处理率及氮的去除率可以降低粪尿氮排入水体比率。
     城市规模也影响食物氮素消费,人均消费氮量大城市最高,中小城市次之,小城镇最低,随着城市规模的提高,城镇居民生活进入大气及水环境中的氮都在增加,尤其是进入水环境中的氮大城市是小城镇居民的1.7倍,还田的氮则减少了3.5倍,大城市氮循环利用率仅为5.0%,比中小城市、小城镇分别低了5.1和12.5个百分点。2002年城镇人口50212万人,如果人口都集中在大城市,比全部集中在中小城市或小城镇向水体排放氮将分别多17.9万吨和53.4万吨;反之,如果人口都集中在中小城市或小城镇要比都集中在大城市多向农田归还17.9万吨和53.4万吨纯氮。城市规模越大,氮素循环利用率越低。可见,目前随着城镇化率提高及人们生活方式的改变,氮循环利用率将大幅度下降。
     在全国这个相对封闭大的系统中,城镇化率与全国农田氮素循环的各指标都存在显著正相关关系。总氮投入量越大,土壤养分的盈余量越多。情景分析结果表明,2005年其它条件不变,只是城镇化率提高10个百分点,这就意味着总氮投入量增加167.4万吨;如果在人口增加的同时还要改善食物结构,单位面积氮的投入量还将增加。
     北京近郊、远郊各区(县)城镇化率与农田养分循环的各个指标间相关不显著,但市区内各区城镇化率与农田养分循环的各个指标间却相关显著。以供应当地食物消费为主的市区各区农田土壤养分投入随着当地城镇化发展而显著提高。农田养分循环的各个指标都随北京市整体的城镇化率的提高而提高,说明北京各区(县)城镇化率并不直接影响农田养分循环的这些指标,而是通过北京市整体城镇化率的提高,拉动食物需求,进而影响农业产业结构,间接影响农田养分循环。
     河北各县当地城镇化率和农田养分循环各指标相关性并不显著,河北各县城镇化率相对较低,最高还不到30%,最低只有2.5%,当地的城镇化率不足以直接影响到农田的养分循环。与全国相对封闭的大系统相比,河北各县的农牧业生产相对开放,如养殖大县、蔬菜大县都是以供应外地为主,城镇化发展对农田养分循环的影响是通过周围地域大中城市城镇化率的提高,拉动食物需求,进而影响农业产业结构,间接影响农田养分循环。
With the growing of income and urbanization,the food consumption structure in urban and rural area of China changes the nitrogen flow model significantly,which has led to tremendous pressure of ecological environment arid serious pollution problems in cities and towns.At the same time,the alternative food consumption structure drives the adjustment of agricultural structure,which Will inevitably affect the nutrient cycling in agro-ecosystem.Therefore,this study preliminarily probed into some impacts of urbanization through survey data,literatures,Statistical data and material flow analysis. The impacts of urbanization on cnaracteristics of nitrogen flow and nitrogen reutilization, nitrogen excretion quantity and its mount emitted to water body in China food consumption system were studies and the relatlonships between urbanization and regional nitrogen balance in agro-ecosystem were analyzed based on the survey of different years in all the country,and companson of various counties with different urbanization rate in Beijing city and Hebei province.The results were shown as follows.
     The nitrogen consumption oi urban residents per capita in 2002 was 4.770 kg which was 10%higher than that of rural residents(4.314 kg).With the raising of urbanization rate from1982 to 2002,food nitrogen consumption of urban residents increased by 145.3%, while a decrease of 8.1%in rural areas.Nitrogen discharged from urban into the environment increased by 18.4 times,while the utilization rate by nitrogen recycle was only 13.0 percent,lowered by 40 percentage points.Scenario analysis Showed that,if the food structure met state standards of China Food and Nutrition Programs,Japan,Europe and USA following the population growth,China's total nitrogen consumption in 2010 would increase by 196.1-419.3 million tons more than that in 2002,and nitrogen in waste would increase by 179.7-368.3 million tons.Therefore,rapid development of urbanization not only produced food nitrogen demands and environmental nitrogen emissions,but also brought tremendbus pressure to animal and plant production.
     Compared with rural residents,both the consumption and excretion of nitrogen from urban residents were higher than that from rural residents.The per capita nitrogen discharged into the water from urban and rural residents were roughly the Same in 1982 while the amount from urban residents was 2.8 times higher than that from rural residents in 1992 and 2002.In 1982,the ratio of nitrogen discharged into water for rural and urban residents were comparative with the value of 7.5%.However,in 2002,this ratio for urban residents went up to 56.7%which was much higher than that of rural residents with 34%. Scenario analysis showed that,with the population growth,if the food structure was improved to increase protein intake at the same time,nitrogen in waste in 2020 will increase by 121-418 million tons and the nitrogen discharged into the water will also increase by 41-182 million tons.Improving the waste recycling rate,the ratio of sewage treatment and removal rate of nitrogen in waste treatment can reduce nitrogen discharged into the water.
     The size of city also affects food consumption of nitrogen.The per capita consumption nitrogen of the major cities was higher than that of medium-sized and small cities with 7.5%and 18.5%respectively.With the increased size of the cities,the nitrogen content of atmosphere and water are increasing continually,and particularly,the nitrogen entering into the water environment in the big cities was 1.7 times as much as small cities. However,the nitrogen returned to the field was with a reduction of 3.5 times than that of the small cities.Compared with the medium and small cities and small towns,the nitrogen cycle utilization of major cities was only 5.0%,lowered by 5.1 and 12.5 percentage points respectively.In 2002,the urban population of China has come to 502.12 million.If such a population is concentrated in large cities,the nitrogen would be excessive of 179,000 tons discharging into water,pure nitrogen 534,000 tons more than that in medium-sized cities and small towns.Instead,if the population is concentrated in small and medium-sized cities or small towns,there would be 179,000 tons or 534,000 tons pure nitrogen returning to farmland.The larger size of the city decreases the lower the utilization rate of nitrogen cycle.With the development of town and the change of the people's life style,the nitrogen cycle utilization will decline significantly.
     As for farmland nutrient recycle,according to nationwide indicators,input amount of fertilizer nitrogen per hector was becoming more and more.For example,it increase from 95 kg / ha in 1980 to 258 kg / ha in 2005.The amplitude of organic fertilizer per hector was lower than fertilizer nitrogen,for instance,it increased from 61kg/ha in 1980 to 127 kg / ha in 2005.The input and residues of total fertilizer nitrogen increased greatly.For instance,it increased from 156kg / ha in 1980 to 385kg / ha in 2005,about 2.5 times.The more the input amount of total nitrogen,the higher soil nutrient surplus.Scenario analysis showed that,in 2005 when other conditions remained unchanged,if only urbanization increased by 10 percentage points,the nitrogen demand inputted into farmland would come to 1674000 tons.If the food structure is also improved and the population is still growing,fertilizer nitrogen,organic nitrogen and total nitrogen input per unit area will increase more.
     Input amount and surplus of nitrogen per hector in areas of Beijing in 2005 has a substantial increase than that in 1995 with the increase of urbanization rate.The input amount of fertilizer in vegetable,aquaculture and fruit areas which located in suburbs are large,So the rank of average fertilizer nitrogen input amount per unit area is outskirts>exurb>urban area.According to the correlation analysis of urbanization rate and farmland nutrient cycling,the relationship in areas of urban in 1995 is significant.However,in suburbs and exurbs,it was not significant.The input amount of nutrient is increasing with the raise of urbanization rate in areas of urban.But in the suburbs and exurb,the significant correlation between the urbanization rate and farmland nutrient cycling indicators was not observed.Total nitrogen input and surplus per hector in area of Beijing is 1.4-2.0 times as much as the average amount of whole country.
     Hebei province,which belongs to rural agriculture,lies in the middle-east of China.It doesn't have distinct zoning like urban agriculture.The nutrient cycling of rural agro-ecosystem is mainly affected by agricultural structure.Hebei as the important province of stock raising and planting,the farmland nitrogen flow has been increasing in the whole areas.With the time going on,the input amount of fertilize nitrogen per hector and soil nutrient surplus capacity is still increasing.The input amounts of nutrient in vegetable and fruit areas are large.The relation of urbanization rate and indicators of soil nutrient cycling is not significant.The urbanization rate of Hebei is low,about 2.5%-30%.The changes of local urbanization rate does not affect farmland nutrient cycling directively.
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