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西藏农牧区现代金融业发展研究
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摘要
一国将农业作为压倒性产业,表明其农村问题非常严重,且解决起来十分棘手。发刃于农村的中国经济改革已走过30余年风雨历程,尽管国民经济发展取得了巨大成就,但城乡经济发展的巨大差距彰显了中国经济发展的基础仍然比较薄弱。党的十六大以来,中央坚持把解决“三农”问题作为全党工作的重中之重,随着农牧业税费的取消和惠农强农政策的陆续出台与落实,“三农”问题有所缓解。然而,破解“三农”难题依然任重道远,许多深层次矛盾尚未得到有效化解,其中农村融资难问题已成为阻碍农业生产发展、农村经济增长和农民持续增收的一个关键瓶颈。
     金融是现代经济的核心,其核心功能在于优化配置资金资源。若资金配置效率得到改善,则有助于提升实体经济发展的速度与质量;反之,若资金配置效率低下,则国民经济运行势必出现“高投入、低产出、低效益”问题,甚至诱发“滞胀”。可见,努力提升资金配置效率,对于改善宏观经济运行质量意义重大。
     改革开放以来,尽管中国农村金融体制发生了巨大变化,已经形成了由商业性金融机构、政策性金融机构和名义合作性金融机构三足鼎立的农村金融机构体系,但农村各类经济主体多元化、多层次金融服务需求(特别是信贷需求)仍远未得到有效满足。农业发展银行资金实力薄弱、机构网点缺乏,决定了政策性金融难以成为缓解中国广大农村金融难题的现实依托;农业银行已改造成为股份制商业银行,信贷资金安全性和盈利性动机不断增强,注定了商业性金融不可能担负起金融支农的政策性责任;农村信用社的合作制性质早已丧失殆尽,其走商业化、城镇化发展道路的内在冲动很难遏制,2003-2007年新一轮农村信用社改革试点耗资巨大而实效不彰就是明证。2006年底,中国银监会发布了“关于调整放宽农村地区银行业金融机构准入政策的意见”,启动了培育新型农村金融机构的试点工作。4年来,全国新型农村金融机构发展试点取得了一定进展,但仍然存在诸多难题有待进一步破解。
     西藏自治区脱胎于政教合一封建农奴制社会,经济发展基础十分薄弱,农牧业历来是西藏地区经济发展的重要基础,农牧区人口一直是西藏人口的主体性成分。改革开放以来,随着西藏城镇经济发展速度不断加快,农牧区经济呈现出边缘化趋势,城乡居民收入差距不断拉大。着力抓好西藏“三农”发展工作,推动农牧业增产增效、农牧民收入增长和农牧区经济发展,对于实现西藏经济社会跨越式发展目标,确保西藏2020年与全国一道迈入全面小康社会,均具有重大现实意义。然而,西藏农牧区产业结构比较单一,传统农牧业比较效益低下,而高原特色农畜产品加工业发展又受到融资困难、生态脆弱、远离市场等诸多不利因素的严厉制约。因此,找准农牧区经济发展的切入点,集中力量实施重点突破,就成为破解西藏农牧区发展难题的战略选择。
     长期以来,金融业发育滞缓、资金要素短缺一直是制约西藏农牧业及农牧区非农产业发展的最大瓶颈。西藏农牧区地广人稀、经济落后、交通不便、信息闭塞,这些给国有商业银行机构在农牧区拓展业务带来了巨大障碍。在中央第三次西藏工作座谈会关于“全国援藏”战略布置的推动下,中国农业银行西藏分行通过合并西藏农村信用社系统成为农牧区唯一的贷款类金融机构。尽管农业银行在金融支援西藏农牧区发展方面做了大量工作,但与农牧区跨越式发展对金融服务的迫切要求相比仍然存在着巨大的差距。目前,80%的西藏人口仍居住在广大农牧区,能否成功实施金融先导型农牧区经济社会发展战略,将直接影响到西藏经济跨越式发展和社会长治久安两件大事解决得实际效果。
     本文综合运用新制度经济学、信息经济学、金融发展理论、现代计量经济学等相关理论与方法,以西藏农牧区现代金融业体系构建为主线,从理论与实证、宏观与微观、历史与现实等多维视角,梳理了农村金融发展相关基础理论,回顾了国际国内农村金融发展历程,运用前沿计量经济方法对民主改革以来特别是改革开放以来西藏自治区及其农牧区金融发展与经济增长之间的关系展开实证分析,设计了金融业支持西藏农牧区经济发展的主要模式,建构了未来5-10年西藏自治区及其农牧区现代金融业服务体系建设的基本框架。
     全文共分为八章:
     第一章导论。本章阐述了本文的选题背景与意义,交待了本文的基本研究思路和主要研究方法,说明了本文可能的创新之处及需要进一步深入研究的问题。
     第二章农村金融发展理论研究述评。本章在界定若干核心概念的基础上,简要述评了金融发展与经济增长关系相关文献,然后对农村金融发展理论前沿问题进行了选择性综述。
     第三章农村金融发展相关基础理论。本章系统梳理了新制度经济学中的产权理论、交易成本理论、制度变迁理论,信息经济学中的非对称信息理论、信贷配给理论,垄断与反垄断理论,金融发展理论,以及农村金融市场理论流派等与农村金融发展问题密切相关的基础理论观点。
     第四章国际国内农村金融业发展经验考察。本章首先分别考察了美国、日本、德国、法国、印度等国家的农村金融体系演进历程以及孟加拉国的乡村银行模式,并提炼出国际农村金融业发展对于中国农村金融改革发展的若干启示;然后系统回顾了1920年以来中国农村金融业发展各阶段的基本情况;最后考察了改革开放以来西藏自治区及其农牧区金融业发展进程。
     第五章西藏农牧区金融发展与经济增长关系的实证分析。首先,对西藏自治区及其农牧区民主改革以来相关经济金融时间序列变量进行最小LM结构变化单位根检验;其次,对西藏自治区及其农牧区两组经济金融变量进行了边界检验;再次,对这两组经济金融变量做出广义因果关系检验。同时,分别对各类计量分析结果给出了合理性解释。
     第六章金融业支持西藏农牧业及民族手工业发展模式探讨。本章分别设计了金融业支持西藏农牧业和民族手工业发展的具体模式,为金融业支持西藏农牧区经济发展提供了可操作性的初步方案。
     第七章中国特色西藏特点农牧区现代金融业体系架构设计。本章具体构建了具有鲜明中国特色和西藏特点的西藏自治区现代金融业发展体系和西藏农牧区现代金融业发展体系,为未来西藏及其农牧区现代金融业发展提供了重要的参考性方案。第八章全文总结与前景展望。本章简要总结了全文的主要研究结论和基本政策建议,并对未来5-10年西藏及其农牧区现代金融业发展前景进行了合理展望。
One country regards agriculture as overwhelming industry, indicating rural issues are very serious and very difficult to solve. Initiating in rural areas' China's economic reforms has gone through stormy course more than 30 years, despite the national economic development has made great achievements, a huge gap between urban and rural economic development underlines that the basis of economic development in China is still relatively weak. Sixth National Congress of Communist Party of China, the CCPCC adheres to solve the "three rural " issue as a top priority of the Party's work, along with the abolition of agricultural taxes and policies benefiting farmers and strenthening agriculture having been put forward, "Agriculture "problems have been alleviated. However, the solution of "three rural" problem remains to be done, many deep-seated problems have yet to be effectively resolved, including the problem of financing in rural areas,which has become a key bottleneckan hindering the development of agricultural production, rural economic growth and peasantl incomes.
     Finance is the core of modern economy, its core function is to optimize the allocation of financial resources. If the efficiency of capital allocation has been improved, then it helps to improve the speed and quality of economic development,; the other hand, if the inefficient allocation of funds, the national economy is bound to a "high input, low output and low efficiency" issue, and even induce "stagflation ". Visibly,taking the efforts to improve capital allocation efficiency has great significance for improving the quality of macroeconomic.
     Since the reform and opening up, even though China's rural financial system has undergone tremendous change, has been formed three pillars of rural financial system composed by commercial financial institutions, financial policy institutions and co-operation financial institutions, but various economic diversification in rural areas, and more level of demand for financial services (especially credit demand) is still far from being effectively met. Agricultural Development Bank financial strength is weak, the lack of institutional networks, determine the financial policy can not be the ease China's vast rural areas based on the reality of the financial problems; Agricultural Bank of China has been transformed into joint-stock commercial banks, and credit funds and the profit motive of the security is growing, doom commercial finance can not assume responsibility for the policy of financial support for agriculture; the nature of rural credit cooperative system has long been lost, it's inner impulse is difficult to contain to go commercial, urban development path,and a new round of 2003-2007 pilot reform of rural credit cooperatives of huge costly and the effectiveness not been apparent is proof. The end of 2006, the CBRC issued the "relaxing on the adjustment of banking institutions in rural areas, access to policy advice," which started the cultivation of new pilot work of rural financial institutions. For the 4 years, the development pilot of national new-type rural financial institutions made some progress, but there are still many problems yet to be solved.
     Tibet derived from the feudal serfdom under theocracy, economic base is very weak, agriculture and animal husbandry in Tibet has always been an important foundation for economic development, population of agricultural and pastoral areas has been the subject of the composition of Tibet's population. Since the reform and opening, with the accelerating pace of the economic development of Tibet' urban, agricultural and pastoral areas showing a marginalization of the economy, urban-rural income gap is widening.. It is of great practical significance for to achieve leapfrog development in Tibet's economic and social objectives and to ensure that the country of Tibet in 2020, together with a comprehensive well-off into society, that focuing their efforts on Tibet "three rural" development, increasing production and efficiency to promote the agricultural, farmer income growth and economic development in pastoral areas, However, the industrial structure and pastoral areas of Tibet is single, relatively low efficiency of traditional agriculture and animal husbandry, and the plateau characteristics of agricultural and livestock processing industry have severe constraints by financing difficulties, ecological fragility, away from the market and many other negative factors,. Therefore, it becomes a crack development issue of the strategic choice to find an entry point for economic development in pastoral areas and concentration on the implementation of key breakthroughs in agricultural and pastoral areas of Tibet.
     For a long time, the financial sector development stagnated, the shortage of funds has been a biggest bottleneck restricting agricultural and pastoral areas of Tibet the development of non-agricultural industries. Sparsely populated agricultural and pastoral areas of Tibet, economic backwardness, transport facilities, lack of information, which give state-owned commercial banks to expand their business in the agricultural and pastoral areas have brought tremendous obstacles. Driven by the strategy of the CCPCC's third Tibet Work Forum on the "Tibet national" strategic arrangement, the Tibetan Branch of Agricultural Bank of China rural credit cooperatives by merging the Tibetan pastoral areas system has become the only type of financial institution loans. Although the Agricultural Bank does a lot of work in the financial support the development of agricultural and pastoral areas of Tibet, a huge gap still exists compared with the agricultural and pastoral areas rapid development's an urgent requirement for financial services. Currently,80% of the Tibetan people are still living in the agricultural and pastoral areas, weather is successful implementation of the pilot-based financial and pastoral areas of economic and social development strategy, will directly affect two major events'practical results,the economic leap-forward development and stability in our society.
     This paper uses new institutional economics, information economics, theory of financial development, the modern econometric theory and methods, taking agricultural and pastoral areas of Tibet System of a modern financial sector as the main line, from the theoretical and empirical, macro and micro, history and reality and other multi-dimensional perspective, reviewing the basic theories related to rural financial development, reviewing the history of international and domestic financial development in rural areas, the use of cutting-edge econometric method of democratic reform, especially since the reform and opening up the Tibet Autonomous Region and the rural and pastoral areas of financial development and economic growth between relations between the empirical analysis, design, support the financial industry and pastoral areas of Tibet's economic development mode, building the next 5-10 years, the Tibet Autonomous Region and the rural and pastoral areas of modern financial service system of the basic framework.
     The paper is divided into eight chapters:
     Chapter I Introduction. This chapter explains the research background and significance of this article, explain the basic research ideas in this paper and the main research method, to illustrate the possible innovation and the need to further study the issue.
     Chapter II Reviewing the Rural Financial Development Theories. Based on defining the core concepts of this chapter, based on a number, this chapter makes a brief review of the relationship between financial development and economic growth literature, and sums up theory of financial development on frontier issues in rural areas.
     ChapterⅢThe Basic Theories of Rural Financial Development. This chapter reviews the new institutional economics in the system of property rights theory, transaction cost theory, institutional change theory, information economics of asymmetric, information theory, theory of credit rationing, monopoly and antitrust theory, the theory of financial development and rural financial market theory Schools and other development issues and is closely related to rural finance basic theory point of view.
     ChapterⅣStudying the International and Domestic Experience of Rural Financial Industry Development. This chapter first examines the United States are Japan, Germany, France, India, and Evolution of the rural financial system and the Grameen Bank model in Bangladesh, and refining the development of the international financial sector in rural areas of China rural financial reform for the Development of enlightenment; and the system Recalling the 1920 Rural Finance in China since the basic situation of various stages of development; last visit Tibet since the reform and opening up its agricultural and pastoral areas of financial sector development process.
     ChapterⅤEmpirical Analysis of Relations of Financial Development and Economic Growth in Agricultural and pastoral areas of Tibet. First, agricultural and pastoral areas of democratic reform in Tibet and its economic and financial time series since the relevant variables in structural changes in the minimum LM unit root test; Secondly, two groups of rural and pastoral areas of Tibet and its economic and financial variables in the border inspection; again, this two sets of economic and financial variables to make generalized causality test. Meanwhile, the results were measured on all kinds of reasonable explanations are given
     ChapterⅥThe Methods of Financial Industry Supporting the Development of Agricultural and Husbandry and Handicrafts. This chapter was designed to support the financial industry and the farming and animal husbandry development of specific models of national handicraft industry, the financial industry to support economic development in pastoral areas of Tibet provides a. preliminary operational plan.
     ChapterⅦDesignning the System with Chinese characteristics and Tibet features of Financial Development of its Agricultural and pastoral areas of Tibet. This chapter specifically constructed with distinctive Chinese characteristics, characteristics of the Tibet Autonomous Region and Tibet, modern financial industry systems and agricultural and pastoral areas of Tibet the development of modern financial system for the future of agricultural and pastoral areas of Tibet and the development of modern financial industry provides an important reference of the program.
     ChapterⅧSummary and Outlook. This chapter briefly summarizes the main conclusions of the full text and the basic policy recommendations of developing modern financial industry in the agricultural and pastoral areas of Tibet and prospects the development of modern financial industry.
引文
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