业务分散、空间分散与商业银行绩效
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摘要
随着商业银行业的发展,越来越多的商业银行在经营中通过开展不同的业务和进入不同地区市场实现业务分散和空间分散。本文研究的重点就是中国商业银行的分散行为与绩效之间的联系。
根据资产组合理论,无论是商业银行的业务分散行为、空间分散行为还是商业银行信贷的产业分散与地理分散,都与风险分散有关。然而,对中国样本的考察却发现,分散行为并非与风险降低必然联系,同时也不必然降低收益。
本文首先梳理了商业银行绩效研究的相关文献,并将其中研究分散行为对商业银行绩效影响的文献进行了较为详细的描述。在比较文献的不同研究方法后,根据中国样本的特性建立计量经济模型,来研究不同类型分散行为与商业银行绩效之间的关系。论文的主体部分包括以下几个部分：
首先,业务分散与商业银行绩效关系研究的是商业银行通过加大非利息业务份额提高业务分散水平对绩效的影响。对14家上市商业银行2007-2008年季度数据进行研究,结果表明业务分散与商业银行风险调整收益率之间存在强正相关,同时由于我国商业银行相对集中于净利息业务,因此净利息业务的波动对商业银行风险调整收益率有显著负效应,并会降低违约距离。在进一步研究净利息业务分散和非利息业务分散过程中发现,净利息业务分散会引起商业银行收益率、成本收入比上升,也与股价波动加大有关。非利息业务分散也会提高商业银行收益率,同时非利息业务分散与成本和股价降低有直接联系。
其次,从商业银行贷款的行业和地理分布两个角度出发,研究贷款分散效应。研究发现中国31家商业银行2006-2008年贷款行业分散既不能提高收益率又不会降低不良贷款率；而19家商业银行2006-2008年度贷款地理分散则能够显著提高收益率同时降低不良贷款率。
第三,空间分散与商业银行绩效关系研究商业银行分行数目以及总分行空间距离增加对商业银行绩效的影响。41家商业银行2004-2008年的财务数据表明,分行数目增加和总分行空间距离增加都会显著提高商业银行收益率并降低成本收入比,但是分行数目增加会加大商业银行风险,而总分行空间距离增加则有利于商业银行降低风险。研究中还发现,空间分散水平对空间分散效应有一定的影响。
本文是第一篇从不同角度系统研究中国商业银行分散行为的文献,为商业银行乃至金融业分散行为的研究提供了经验。在研究业务分散过程中细化了净利息业务分散和非利息业务分散,研究深度较以往的文献有一定程度的提升。对贷款组合的研究,本文同时关注贷款的行业分布和地理分布,较为全面的反映了贷款组合的风险收益效应。在研究空间分散行为过程中,不仅关注了商业银行营业机构的数目也关注了营业机构的空间布局情况。本文研究的样本也比以往相关研究更全面,涵盖了上市商业银行和非上市商业银行,几乎涉及到所有类型的商业银行。然而文章也存在进一步拓展的空间,如随着商业银行信息披露的进一步加强,存在增加样本的可能,以便研究更具有代表性。另外在本文的部分研究中还有待进一步挖掘,如对商业银行空间分散的研究不够深入,只区分了不同分散模式,并未对不同分散模式的形成机理及其与商业银行绩效之间的不同关系进行深入探讨,在今后研究中需要加强。
With the development of commercial banks, more and more banks becoming business diversification through supply different products and spatial diversification through building branches in new markets. This dissertation focuses on the relationship between the diversification and the performance of commercial banks.
Modern portfolio theory suggests that both business diversification, loan diversification on industry & geography and spatial diversification have effects on risk diversify. However, the study on Chinese sample gives the proof that diversification will not cause risk diversify. At same time diversification will not cause revenue reduction necessarily.
At the beginning of this dissertation, those papers about performance of commercial banks are reviewed, those focused on the relationship between performance and diversification are analyzed. After compared the different methods that used in the past papers, the dissertation set up the econometrics model based up on the Chinese commercial banks. The model is the basic methods to study the relationship between commercial banks'performance and different types of diversification. The dissertation includes the following parts:
Firstly, the relationship between business diversification and commercial banks' performance focuses on the effects of non-interest income increasing on risk, profitability and cost of commercial banks. The seasonal data of 14 listed banks suggest that business diversification has positive effect on bank's Risk Adjusted Return during 2007-2008. At the same time, for the purpose of the high share of net interest income of Chinese commercial banks, the volatility of net interest income will decrease the Risk Adjusted Return and distance of default. The forward study on diversification of net interest income and non interest income suggest that net interest income diversification will cause the increase of profitability, cost on income and the volatility of price of stock. Non interest income diversification will increase the profitability, and decrease the cost and the price of stock.
Secondly, loan diversification includes industrial diversification and geographic diversification. The empire study suggest that industrial diversification will neither increase return nor decrease non perform loan rate of 31 commercial banks 2006-2008, while geographic diversification will increase return and decrease non perform loan of 19 commercial banks 2006-2008.
Thirdly, the relationship between spatial diversification and commercial banks' performance is the main topic. This part documents the character of spatial diversification among Chinese commercial banks during 2004-2008, and investigates how spatial diversification relates to bank's performance. The number of branch and the distance between head and branches are associated with significantly higher return and lower cost. The number of branch will increase the risk, while the distance between head and branches will decrease the risk of commercial banks.
This dissertation is the first one study on the relationship between diversification and performance of China's commercial banks from different respects. With the study on the business diversification, the dissertation analyses the net interest diversification and non interest diversification deeply. There was no Chinese empire study in this field before. At the same time the dissertation uses distance proxy the spatial diversification as the supplementary to the number of branches. When study the loan diversification, the dissertation divide it into two types, which is industrial diversification and geographic diversification. The dissertation covered more samples than the earlier papers focus on commercial banks. Both listed banks and unlisted banks are included in this paper, and almost all types of commercial banks be used in empirical study.
There still are works should be done in the future. With the improvement of information disclosure, the sample will expand enough to get more stable results. At the same time, distinguishing the cause and effect of different types of spatial diversification should be the main task in the future.
根据资产组合理论,无论是商业银行的业务分散行为、空间分散行为还是商业银行信贷的产业分散与地理分散,都与风险分散有关。然而,对中国样本的考察却发现,分散行为并非与风险降低必然联系,同时也不必然降低收益。
本文首先梳理了商业银行绩效研究的相关文献,并将其中研究分散行为对商业银行绩效影响的文献进行了较为详细的描述。在比较文献的不同研究方法后,根据中国样本的特性建立计量经济模型,来研究不同类型分散行为与商业银行绩效之间的关系。论文的主体部分包括以下几个部分：
首先,业务分散与商业银行绩效关系研究的是商业银行通过加大非利息业务份额提高业务分散水平对绩效的影响。对14家上市商业银行2007-2008年季度数据进行研究,结果表明业务分散与商业银行风险调整收益率之间存在强正相关,同时由于我国商业银行相对集中于净利息业务,因此净利息业务的波动对商业银行风险调整收益率有显著负效应,并会降低违约距离。在进一步研究净利息业务分散和非利息业务分散过程中发现,净利息业务分散会引起商业银行收益率、成本收入比上升,也与股价波动加大有关。非利息业务分散也会提高商业银行收益率,同时非利息业务分散与成本和股价降低有直接联系。
其次,从商业银行贷款的行业和地理分布两个角度出发,研究贷款分散效应。研究发现中国31家商业银行2006-2008年贷款行业分散既不能提高收益率又不会降低不良贷款率；而19家商业银行2006-2008年度贷款地理分散则能够显著提高收益率同时降低不良贷款率。
第三,空间分散与商业银行绩效关系研究商业银行分行数目以及总分行空间距离增加对商业银行绩效的影响。41家商业银行2004-2008年的财务数据表明,分行数目增加和总分行空间距离增加都会显著提高商业银行收益率并降低成本收入比,但是分行数目增加会加大商业银行风险,而总分行空间距离增加则有利于商业银行降低风险。研究中还发现,空间分散水平对空间分散效应有一定的影响。
本文是第一篇从不同角度系统研究中国商业银行分散行为的文献,为商业银行乃至金融业分散行为的研究提供了经验。在研究业务分散过程中细化了净利息业务分散和非利息业务分散,研究深度较以往的文献有一定程度的提升。对贷款组合的研究,本文同时关注贷款的行业分布和地理分布,较为全面的反映了贷款组合的风险收益效应。在研究空间分散行为过程中,不仅关注了商业银行营业机构的数目也关注了营业机构的空间布局情况。本文研究的样本也比以往相关研究更全面,涵盖了上市商业银行和非上市商业银行,几乎涉及到所有类型的商业银行。然而文章也存在进一步拓展的空间,如随着商业银行信息披露的进一步加强,存在增加样本的可能,以便研究更具有代表性。另外在本文的部分研究中还有待进一步挖掘,如对商业银行空间分散的研究不够深入,只区分了不同分散模式,并未对不同分散模式的形成机理及其与商业银行绩效之间的不同关系进行深入探讨,在今后研究中需要加强。
With the development of commercial banks, more and more banks becoming business diversification through supply different products and spatial diversification through building branches in new markets. This dissertation focuses on the relationship between the diversification and the performance of commercial banks.
Modern portfolio theory suggests that both business diversification, loan diversification on industry & geography and spatial diversification have effects on risk diversify. However, the study on Chinese sample gives the proof that diversification will not cause risk diversify. At same time diversification will not cause revenue reduction necessarily.
At the beginning of this dissertation, those papers about performance of commercial banks are reviewed, those focused on the relationship between performance and diversification are analyzed. After compared the different methods that used in the past papers, the dissertation set up the econometrics model based up on the Chinese commercial banks. The model is the basic methods to study the relationship between commercial banks'performance and different types of diversification. The dissertation includes the following parts:
Firstly, the relationship between business diversification and commercial banks' performance focuses on the effects of non-interest income increasing on risk, profitability and cost of commercial banks. The seasonal data of 14 listed banks suggest that business diversification has positive effect on bank's Risk Adjusted Return during 2007-2008. At the same time, for the purpose of the high share of net interest income of Chinese commercial banks, the volatility of net interest income will decrease the Risk Adjusted Return and distance of default. The forward study on diversification of net interest income and non interest income suggest that net interest income diversification will cause the increase of profitability, cost on income and the volatility of price of stock. Non interest income diversification will increase the profitability, and decrease the cost and the price of stock.
Secondly, loan diversification includes industrial diversification and geographic diversification. The empire study suggest that industrial diversification will neither increase return nor decrease non perform loan rate of 31 commercial banks 2006-2008, while geographic diversification will increase return and decrease non perform loan of 19 commercial banks 2006-2008.
Thirdly, the relationship between spatial diversification and commercial banks' performance is the main topic. This part documents the character of spatial diversification among Chinese commercial banks during 2004-2008, and investigates how spatial diversification relates to bank's performance. The number of branch and the distance between head and branches are associated with significantly higher return and lower cost. The number of branch will increase the risk, while the distance between head and branches will decrease the risk of commercial banks.
This dissertation is the first one study on the relationship between diversification and performance of China's commercial banks from different respects. With the study on the business diversification, the dissertation analyses the net interest diversification and non interest diversification deeply. There was no Chinese empire study in this field before. At the same time the dissertation uses distance proxy the spatial diversification as the supplementary to the number of branches. When study the loan diversification, the dissertation divide it into two types, which is industrial diversification and geographic diversification. The dissertation covered more samples than the earlier papers focus on commercial banks. Both listed banks and unlisted banks are included in this paper, and almost all types of commercial banks be used in empirical study.
There still are works should be done in the future. With the improvement of information disclosure, the sample will expand enough to get more stable results. At the same time, distinguishing the cause and effect of different types of spatial diversification should be the main task in the future.
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