论我国资本与金融项目开放及其风险防范
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摘要
当今世界已经进入金融全球化时代,随着金融全球化程度的加深,处于经济起飞阶段的中国走向世界金融市场的愿望日益强烈。为了更多地分享金融全球化的收益,我国人民币在1996年12月1日实现经常项目可兑换后,已经开始了向资本与金融项目部分可兑换过渡的进程,但由于1997年爆发东南亚金融危机,人民币自由兑换进程速度渐缓。2001年12月11日,我国加入WTO,按照其金融服务协议(FSA)中的有关规则,我国将逐步对外国投资者开放国内资本市场。企业债券、金融债券、国债将随着资本市场对外开放而开放,资本与金融项目开放的任务日趋紧迫。但就目前中国的经济情况来看,许多方面还不够成熟,开放会承担一定的风险。中国资本与金融项目开放会遇到哪些风险,应该怎样去防范,是关系到中国经济发展的现实课题,本文围绕这些疑问展开研究。
全文共分三部分:
第一部分,详细介绍资本与金融项目开放,包括开放的定义,开放的条件,类型,及资本与金融项目开放可能带来的各种风险。第二部分,介绍我国资本与金融项目管理的历程及开放的现实基础。包括我国资本管制的成本收益分析,资本与金融项目走向开放的发展历程及开放的基础。第三部分是关于我国防范资本与金融项目开放风险的对策分析。也是本文选题角度的独到之处,将资本与金融项目开放的研究重点放在对风险的防范之上,先是分析从我国实际情况出发,开放将主要面临怎样的风险,然后提出抵御风险的应对方案。
Our tunes has already entered financial globalization era, as the degree of the financial globalization is strengthened. The intention of taking part in the international financial market of China, who is in the stage of economy take-off, has got stronger. RMB has already begun to the capital and financial account exchangeable process partly after realizing exchanging in current account on December 1st, 1996, but this process was slowed down since the break out of Southeast Asia financial crisis 1997. Till the participation in WTO on December 11, 2001, China will open the domestic capital market to the foreign investor progressively again according to the relevant rules is its financial service agreement (FSA). The task to open the capital and financial account is becoming more urgent. But so far as economic conditions of China, a lot of respects are not ripe enough, opening will assume some uncertain risks. What kind of risks does the capital and financial account of China run into when it opens? How to prevent them? They are the realistic subjects which concern the economic development of China; mis thesis just launched research around the doubts.The full text can be divided into three parts altogether:The first part mainly introduces to open the capital and financial account in detail, including open definition, an open condition, the type, and various kinds of risks that the opening of capital and financial account may bring. The second part introduces the management course of capital financial account of China and the opening realistic foundation, including the cost-benefit analysis of capital controlling, and the development course of capital and financial account and foundation of opening. The third part is to analyze how to prevent the risk of the capital and financial account opening courses. It is a distinctive angle of this thesis: firstly, to analyze what kind of risks will be faced when opening, secondly, how to prevent them.
全文共分三部分:
第一部分,详细介绍资本与金融项目开放,包括开放的定义,开放的条件,类型,及资本与金融项目开放可能带来的各种风险。第二部分,介绍我国资本与金融项目管理的历程及开放的现实基础。包括我国资本管制的成本收益分析,资本与金融项目走向开放的发展历程及开放的基础。第三部分是关于我国防范资本与金融项目开放风险的对策分析。也是本文选题角度的独到之处,将资本与金融项目开放的研究重点放在对风险的防范之上,先是分析从我国实际情况出发,开放将主要面临怎样的风险,然后提出抵御风险的应对方案。
Our tunes has already entered financial globalization era, as the degree of the financial globalization is strengthened. The intention of taking part in the international financial market of China, who is in the stage of economy take-off, has got stronger. RMB has already begun to the capital and financial account exchangeable process partly after realizing exchanging in current account on December 1st, 1996, but this process was slowed down since the break out of Southeast Asia financial crisis 1997. Till the participation in WTO on December 11, 2001, China will open the domestic capital market to the foreign investor progressively again according to the relevant rules is its financial service agreement (FSA). The task to open the capital and financial account is becoming more urgent. But so far as economic conditions of China, a lot of respects are not ripe enough, opening will assume some uncertain risks. What kind of risks does the capital and financial account of China run into when it opens? How to prevent them? They are the realistic subjects which concern the economic development of China; mis thesis just launched research around the doubts.The full text can be divided into three parts altogether:The first part mainly introduces to open the capital and financial account in detail, including open definition, an open condition, the type, and various kinds of risks that the opening of capital and financial account may bring. The second part introduces the management course of capital financial account of China and the opening realistic foundation, including the cost-benefit analysis of capital controlling, and the development course of capital and financial account and foundation of opening. The third part is to analyze how to prevent the risk of the capital and financial account opening courses. It is a distinctive angle of this thesis: firstly, to analyze what kind of risks will be faced when opening, secondly, how to prevent them.
引文
[1] 曹龙骐.货币银行学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2000.31-60.
[2] 米什金.货币银行学[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1998.16-48.
[3] 沈国兵.汇率制度的选择[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2003.68-79.
[4] 姜波克.人民币自由兑换和资本管制[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,1999.10-33.
[5] 江春.产权、货币自由兑换与经济发展[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2003,68-79.
[6] 生柳荣.当代金融创新[M].北京:中国发展出版社,1998.12-45.
[7] 周林,温小郑.货币国际化[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2001.45-89.
[8] 姜波克.国际金融学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1999.79-102.
[9] 廖发达.发展中国家资本项目开放与银行稳定[M].上海:上海远东出版社,2001.5-16.
[10] 张幼文,干杏娣.金融深化的国际进程[M].上海:上海远东出版社,1998.22-32.
[12] 雷蒙德·W·戈德史密斯.金融结构与金融发展[M].上海:上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1994.47-56.
[13] 降方.资本流动下的汇率安捧与资本管理[M].北京:中国对外经济贸易出版社,2003.71-84.
[14] 罗纳德·I·麦金农.经济自由化的顺序:向市场经济过渡中的金融控制[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,1993.19-21.
[15] 约翰·戈利,爱德华·萧.金融理论中的货币[M].上海:上海三联书店 1988.49-51.
[16] 罗纳德·麦金农.经济发展中的货币与资本[M].上海:上海三联书店 1988.13-45.
[17] 刘海藩.中国金融问题:风险控制和化解[M].北京:中共中央党校出版社 2002.12-19.
[18] 李长江.人民币迈向国际化的道路[M].北京:中国物资出版社 1998.45-47.
[19] 杨帆,赵晓,江慧琴.中国的挑战——亚洲金融风暴后的中国[M].北京:石油工业出版社.1998.12-31.
[20] 周道许.金融全球化下的金融安全[M].北京:中国金融出版社 2001.47-49.
[21] 王雪冰.1999-2000国际金融报告[M].北京:经济科学出版社 2000.56-64.
[22] 廖发达.发展中国家资本项目开放模式比较及启示[J].经济纵横,2001,(7)21-25.
[23] 张学文.资本项目开放的风险决定因素分析[J].中国金融半月刊,2003,(7)11-15.
[24] 王信.我国资本项目开放的市场化道路[J].经济社会体制比较,2003,(4)34-37.
[25] 乔桂明.货币替代:中国资本项目开放进程中的考验与政策选择[J].国际金融研究,2003,(11)28-31.
[26] 赵蓓文.资本项目自由化的国际进程与入世后人民币资本账户开放[J].世界经济研究,2002,(3)34-37.
[27] 李一宣.资本项目开放与东南亚金融危机[J].国际金融研究,2001,(3)21-25.
[28] 吴念鲁.论人民币汇率机制及人民币自由兑换的前景[J].国际金融研究,2001,(3)34-36.
[29] 黄金老.人民币升值与资本项目开放之间的权衡[J].经济界,2003,(10)25-29.
[30] 姚莉.中国资本项目开放模式的探讨[J].现代财经,2001,(5)18-21.
[31] 丁剑平,王君.资本项目开放:由中印比较引发的思考[J].外国经济与管理,2001(10):12-16.
[32] 卜亚.论我国的货币替代与资本项目开放[J].改革与战略,2003(8):35-38.
[33] Masahiro Kawai. Yen Internationalization[J]. Social Science Japan, 1994 (9):2-14.
[34] IMF. International Financial Statistics Yearbook[J]. various issues, 2003 (12)78-89.
[35] Edwards. Capital. Controls, Exchange Rate, and Monetary Policy in the World Economy[M]. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 1995. 97-111.
[36] Yu Yongding. On East Asian Monetary Cooperation[J]. Research Center for International Finance Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Working Paper Series, 2001. 121-156.
[37] Robert Mundell. A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas[J]. American Economic Review, 1961. 208-219.
[38] Baer Eichengreen. Taming Capital Flows [M]. New York: World Development, 2000. 1105-1116.
[39] Maxwell J. Fry. Money, Interest and Banking in Economic Development[M]. Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press1999. 166-187.
[2] 米什金.货币银行学[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1998.16-48.
[3] 沈国兵.汇率制度的选择[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2003.68-79.
[4] 姜波克.人民币自由兑换和资本管制[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,1999.10-33.
[5] 江春.产权、货币自由兑换与经济发展[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2003,68-79.
[6] 生柳荣.当代金融创新[M].北京:中国发展出版社,1998.12-45.
[7] 周林,温小郑.货币国际化[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2001.45-89.
[8] 姜波克.国际金融学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1999.79-102.
[9] 廖发达.发展中国家资本项目开放与银行稳定[M].上海:上海远东出版社,2001.5-16.
[10] 张幼文,干杏娣.金融深化的国际进程[M].上海:上海远东出版社,1998.22-32.
[12] 雷蒙德·W·戈德史密斯.金融结构与金融发展[M].上海:上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1994.47-56.
[13] 降方.资本流动下的汇率安捧与资本管理[M].北京:中国对外经济贸易出版社,2003.71-84.
[14] 罗纳德·I·麦金农.经济自由化的顺序:向市场经济过渡中的金融控制[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,1993.19-21.
[15] 约翰·戈利,爱德华·萧.金融理论中的货币[M].上海:上海三联书店 1988.49-51.
[16] 罗纳德·麦金农.经济发展中的货币与资本[M].上海:上海三联书店 1988.13-45.
[17] 刘海藩.中国金融问题:风险控制和化解[M].北京:中共中央党校出版社 2002.12-19.
[18] 李长江.人民币迈向国际化的道路[M].北京:中国物资出版社 1998.45-47.
[19] 杨帆,赵晓,江慧琴.中国的挑战——亚洲金融风暴后的中国[M].北京:石油工业出版社.1998.12-31.
[20] 周道许.金融全球化下的金融安全[M].北京:中国金融出版社 2001.47-49.
[21] 王雪冰.1999-2000国际金融报告[M].北京:经济科学出版社 2000.56-64.
[22] 廖发达.发展中国家资本项目开放模式比较及启示[J].经济纵横,2001,(7)21-25.
[23] 张学文.资本项目开放的风险决定因素分析[J].中国金融半月刊,2003,(7)11-15.
[24] 王信.我国资本项目开放的市场化道路[J].经济社会体制比较,2003,(4)34-37.
[25] 乔桂明.货币替代:中国资本项目开放进程中的考验与政策选择[J].国际金融研究,2003,(11)28-31.
[26] 赵蓓文.资本项目自由化的国际进程与入世后人民币资本账户开放[J].世界经济研究,2002,(3)34-37.
[27] 李一宣.资本项目开放与东南亚金融危机[J].国际金融研究,2001,(3)21-25.
[28] 吴念鲁.论人民币汇率机制及人民币自由兑换的前景[J].国际金融研究,2001,(3)34-36.
[29] 黄金老.人民币升值与资本项目开放之间的权衡[J].经济界,2003,(10)25-29.
[30] 姚莉.中国资本项目开放模式的探讨[J].现代财经,2001,(5)18-21.
[31] 丁剑平,王君.资本项目开放:由中印比较引发的思考[J].外国经济与管理,2001(10):12-16.
[32] 卜亚.论我国的货币替代与资本项目开放[J].改革与战略,2003(8):35-38.
[33] Masahiro Kawai. Yen Internationalization[J]. Social Science Japan, 1994 (9):2-14.
[34] IMF. International Financial Statistics Yearbook[J]. various issues, 2003 (12)78-89.
[35] Edwards. Capital. Controls, Exchange Rate, and Monetary Policy in the World Economy[M]. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 1995. 97-111.
[36] Yu Yongding. On East Asian Monetary Cooperation[J]. Research Center for International Finance Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Working Paper Series, 2001. 121-156.
[37] Robert Mundell. A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas[J]. American Economic Review, 1961. 208-219.
[38] Baer Eichengreen. Taming Capital Flows [M]. New York: World Development, 2000. 1105-1116.
[39] Maxwell J. Fry. Money, Interest and Banking in Economic Development[M]. Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press1999. 166-187.