资本项目开放对中国资本外逃的影响研究
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摘要
1996年12月中国实现了人民币经常项目的可兑换,正式成为国际货币基金组第八条款国,2001年加入WTO之后,中国更是加快了融入全球经济的步伐。近年来我国积极推行人民币国际化战略,因此中国资本项目开放的速度有不断加快的趋势。虽然实现人民币资本项目可兑换能给我国带来许多优势,但是同时也给资本外逃提供了更加通畅的渠道,增大了资本外逃的风险。
本文的第一部分从系统梳理资本项目可兑换的相关文献开始,首先对我国资本项目可兑换的概念进行了界定,然后分析了人民币资本项目可兑换与人民币国际化的关系。
本文的第二部分首先分析了资本项目开放对中国资本外逃的影响机制,得出资本项目开放对中国资本外逃的影响具有两面性的结论,然后对中国资本外逃的新趋势进行了初步探讨。
本文的第三部分在测算了1990—2010年间中国资本外逃的规模和资本项目开放度的基础上,运用协整分析方法实证分析了资本项目开放度与中国资本外逃的关系。并最终确立了资本外逃与资本项目开放度、通货膨胀率、外债增加额、外商直接投资、财政赤字的多元线性回归方程。
本文的最后一个部分是政策建议,一方面,针对我国实现人民币资本项目可兑换可能面临的资本外逃风险,提出了要保持国内宏观经济稳定、积极谨慎地推进资本项目开放、完善人民币利率市场化机制、完善汇率浮动机制、完善金融监管等政策建议。另一方面,针对中国资本外逃的新趋势,分别提出了相应防范资本外逃的对策,并初步提出了建立资本外逃监控机制的构想。
China has been the Article eight country in the International Monetary Fund since December1996, when RMB current account was convertible in china. Moreover China has quickened it's pace to bland in the global economy since2001when China entered WTO. There is a tendency of speeding openness of Chinese capital account especially with the practice of the strategy of RMB internationalization. Admittedly, there are advantages brought about by the convertibility of RMB capital account. On the other hand, it expands the risk of capital flight by providing a smooth channel.
In part I, there is a literature review about the convertibility of capital account, in which firstly comes the definition, and finally the relationship between the convertibility of RMB capital Account and RMB internationalization.
In part II, there is firstly the definition of capital flight in China, then analysis of the capital flight under the influence of openness of capital account in China, and finally the discussion about a new tendency of capital flight in China.
In part III, there is an estimate of the capital flight in China from1990to2010, together with a cointegration analysis on the relationship between the estimate and the openness of capital account. Then, a module test involved the concept of capital account openness results in a multiple linear regression equation of capital flight, inflation rate, increased foreign debt, foreign direct investment and financial deficits.
Policy proposal comes as the last part of the thesis, which includes some suggestions to stabilize the domestic macro economy, to promote the openness of capital account, to improve the financial supervision, etc. Last but not the least, there is an idea of establishing a monitor mechanism against capital flight.
本文的第一部分从系统梳理资本项目可兑换的相关文献开始,首先对我国资本项目可兑换的概念进行了界定,然后分析了人民币资本项目可兑换与人民币国际化的关系。
本文的第二部分首先分析了资本项目开放对中国资本外逃的影响机制,得出资本项目开放对中国资本外逃的影响具有两面性的结论,然后对中国资本外逃的新趋势进行了初步探讨。
本文的第三部分在测算了1990—2010年间中国资本外逃的规模和资本项目开放度的基础上,运用协整分析方法实证分析了资本项目开放度与中国资本外逃的关系。并最终确立了资本外逃与资本项目开放度、通货膨胀率、外债增加额、外商直接投资、财政赤字的多元线性回归方程。
本文的最后一个部分是政策建议,一方面,针对我国实现人民币资本项目可兑换可能面临的资本外逃风险,提出了要保持国内宏观经济稳定、积极谨慎地推进资本项目开放、完善人民币利率市场化机制、完善汇率浮动机制、完善金融监管等政策建议。另一方面,针对中国资本外逃的新趋势,分别提出了相应防范资本外逃的对策,并初步提出了建立资本外逃监控机制的构想。
China has been the Article eight country in the International Monetary Fund since December1996, when RMB current account was convertible in china. Moreover China has quickened it's pace to bland in the global economy since2001when China entered WTO. There is a tendency of speeding openness of Chinese capital account especially with the practice of the strategy of RMB internationalization. Admittedly, there are advantages brought about by the convertibility of RMB capital account. On the other hand, it expands the risk of capital flight by providing a smooth channel.
In part I, there is a literature review about the convertibility of capital account, in which firstly comes the definition, and finally the relationship between the convertibility of RMB capital Account and RMB internationalization.
In part II, there is firstly the definition of capital flight in China, then analysis of the capital flight under the influence of openness of capital account in China, and finally the discussion about a new tendency of capital flight in China.
In part III, there is an estimate of the capital flight in China from1990to2010, together with a cointegration analysis on the relationship between the estimate and the openness of capital account. Then, a module test involved the concept of capital account openness results in a multiple linear regression equation of capital flight, inflation rate, increased foreign debt, foreign direct investment and financial deficits.
Policy proposal comes as the last part of the thesis, which includes some suggestions to stabilize the domestic macro economy, to promote the openness of capital account, to improve the financial supervision, etc. Last but not the least, there is an idea of establishing a monitor mechanism against capital flight.
引文
[1]Williamson. John. A cost benefit analysis of capital account liberalization, in Helmut Reisen and Bemhard Fisher, eds., Financial Opening:Developing Country Policy Issues and Experiences, Paris:Organization for Economic.1993
[2]Hanson, James. Opening the capital account:costs, benefits and sequencing, in Sebastian Edwards, ed. Capital Controls, Exchange Rates, and Monetary policy in the World economy, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1995.PP383-429
[3]IMF, World Economic Outlook, Washington, D. C., Oct.,1998
[4]Cooper, Should Capital-Account Convertibility be a World Object? [R], Fischer et al. Princeton University, Essays in International Finance 207, 1998
[5]Grubel, Internationally Diversified Portfolios:Welfare Gains and Capital Flows[H], American Economic Review Vol.58, Dec.,1996
[6]Quinn, The Correlates of Changes in International Financial Regulation[D],American Political Science Review 91, 1997, p.531-551.
[7]Klein, M. and Olivei, Capital Account Liberalization, Financial Depth and Economic Growth[G], mimeo, Boston, Massachusetts:Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, 2001
[8]Edwards, Capital Mobility and Economic Performance:Are Emerging Economies Different?[S],NBER Working Paper No.8076,2001
[9]Kraay, In search of the Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Account Liberalization,[A], unpublished manuscript, The World Bank, October,1998.
[10]Rodric.Who needs capital account convertibility?,[D], Essays in International Finance No.207, Princeton:Princeton University Press(May),1998,p.55-65.
[11]Eichengreen, Capital Account Liberalization:What Do the Cross-Country Show us?[B]. World Bank Economic Review 15, No.3,2002, p.341-366
[12]Kindleberger.International short-term capital movement[C], Columbia University,1937. Press:2-11
[13]Khan and Haque, Foreign Borrowing and Capital Flight. IMF Staff Papers, No.32,1985
[14]Lessard,.and John Williamson. Capital Flight and Third World Debt [M]. Washington D.C:Institute for International Ecoomics, 1987: 27-67
[15]Cuddington. Capital Flight:Estimate, Issues, and Explanations. Princeton Studies in International Finance.1986
[16]Dornbusch, Capital Flight:Theory, Measurement and Policy Issues[R].Inter-American Development Bank Occasion Paper No.2.1990
[17]Walter, Secret Money [I], London,George Allen and Unwin,1987
[18]Dooley, Country Specific Risk Premiums, Capital Flight and Net Investment Income Payments in Selected Developing Countries,1986 [1] Kim T. International Money and Banking, London,1993
[20]Tornell, A & A Velasco.The tragedy of the commons and economic growth:Why does capital flow from poor to rich countries[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1992,100(6):1208-1231
[21]Paul Collier, Anke Hoeffler and Catherine Pattilo. Capital Flight as a Choice of Investment[R].World Bank:Working paper,1999:5-16.
[22]Johnston and Ryan, Sequencing Capital Account Liberalization,[B], Finance and Development 35,1998,p.20-23.
[23]Edwards, How Effective are Capital Controls? [J], Journal of Economic Perspectives, Fall, Vol.13, No.4,1999,p.65-84.
[24]Schneider, Issues in Capital Account Convertibility in Developing Countries,[B], Overseas Development Institute,2000.
[25]Bejia, Was Capital Fleeing Southeast Asia? Estimates from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and the Thailand. [T].preliminary paper,2004
[26]Schneider, Measuring Capital Flight:Estimates and Interpretations,[B], Overseas Development Institute, working paper 194,2001.
[27]易纲.资本项目自由化：顺序、配套问题和案例分析[R].北京大学1999年度重点课题报告.1999：42-47.
[28]张礼卿.发展中国家的资本账户开放：理论、政策与经验[M].经济科学出版社.2003
[29]孙伊然.中国开放资本项目的成本收益分析[J].生产力研究,2007(19)：22-29
[30]滕听.中国资本账户开放的利益和风险分析及策略选择[D].陕西师范大学硕士论文.2004
[31]刘继广.人民币离岸金融运行机理分析[D].上海社会科学院博士论文.2005
[32]李婧,管涛,何帆.人民币跨境流通的现状及对中国经济的影响[J].管理世界.2004(09).
[33]李扬.国际资本流动与我国宏观经济稳定[J].经济研究,1995(6)：12-20
[34]宋文兵.中国的资本外逃问题研究：1987-1997[J].经济研究.1999(5)：39-48
[35]李晓峰.中国资本外逃的理论与现实[J].管理世界.2000(4)：123-133
[36]杨胜刚,刘宗华.资本外逃与中国的现实选择[J].金融研究.2000(2)：73-79
[37]杨胜刚.中国资本外逃规模估测的实证研究[J].湖南大学学报.2003(6)：42-47.
[38]牛晓健,姜波克.中国资本项目下的资本外逃研究[J].财经研究.2005.(10)：14-21
[39]高增安.转移定价-洗钱-资本外逃关联机制透视[J].经济学家.2009,(11)：79-84
[40]韩继云.1989—1998：中国资本外逃实证分析[J].财经论丛.2000(1)：41-48
[41]田晓霞.中国资本外逃规模的重新估算：1982—1999[J].金融研究.2000(8)：72-82
[42]李庆云,田晓霞.中国资本外逃的影响因素[J].世界经济.2000(9)：3-9.
[43]杨海珍.资本外逃—国际趋势与中国问题[M].中国金融出版社.2005.
[44]牛晓健.中国经济转型时期资本外逃研究[M].上海人民出版社.2005.
[45]王振全,汪寿阳.我国资本外逃的渠道、规模与对策[J].中国科学院院刊.vol.21.2006
[46]黄先开,王振全.资本流动检测与预警[M].经济科学出版社.2008
[47]杨海珍.中国资本外逃影响因素的计量分析[J].数理统计和管理.2002(11)：1-7
[48]全海欣.中国资本外逃剖析[D].南开大学博士论文.2009
[49]高增安.贸易洗钱与反洗钱研究[M].科学出版社.2011.
[50]高增安.基于交易的可疑洗钱行为模式与反洗钱对策研究[D].西南交通大学博士学位论文.2007c：30-73
[51]黄彤华,王振全,汪寿阳.中国资本外逃规模重新估算1982-2004[J].管理评论.2006(6)：11-19.
[52]高增安.国际贸易可疑洗钱行为透析[J].财经科学.2007b,3：112-117.
[53]高增安.国家反洗钱的理论与战略探讨[J].社会科学.2010(2)：24-29.
[54]黄彤华,王振全.中国BOP表外资本外逃的主要渠道—进出口伪报分析[J].北京工商大学学报.2007(5)：6-10.
[55]蓝发钦.中国资本项目开放的测度[J].华东师范大学学报.2005(2)：87-94.
[56]娄伶俐.资本账户开放测度方法：比较与综合[J].国际金融研究.2011(8)：41-49.
[57]倪权生,潘英丽.G20国家资本账户开放度比较研究—基于改进的约束式测度法[J].世界经济研究.2009(2)：19-22.
[58]杨胜刚.资本外逃与中国对策[M].湖南大学出版社.2003
[59]张屹山,张鹏.资本和金融项目开放对中国宏观经济影响的实证分析[J].中国工业 经济.2010(5)：27-36.
[60]Philip R. Lane, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti. The External Wealth of Nations:Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities for Industrial and Developing Countries[J]. Journal of International Economics,2001
[61]Edison, Levine, Luca. Torsten Sloek.2002, International Financial Integration and Economic Growth. IMF working paper, wp/02/145
[62]Edwards, Sebastian. Capital mobility, capital controls, and globalization in the twenty-first century [M].The annals of the American A-academy of Political and Science.2002:249-260.
[63]李卫群.资本项目开放与经济增长研究的比较分析[J].国际贸易问题.2005(8)：105-109
[64]李继伟.资本项目开放中的货币危机预警研究[J].南方金融.2010(12)：24-30
[2]Hanson, James. Opening the capital account:costs, benefits and sequencing, in Sebastian Edwards, ed. Capital Controls, Exchange Rates, and Monetary policy in the World economy, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1995.PP383-429
[3]IMF, World Economic Outlook, Washington, D. C., Oct.,1998
[4]Cooper, Should Capital-Account Convertibility be a World Object? [R], Fischer et al. Princeton University, Essays in International Finance 207, 1998
[5]Grubel, Internationally Diversified Portfolios:Welfare Gains and Capital Flows[H], American Economic Review Vol.58, Dec.,1996
[6]Quinn, The Correlates of Changes in International Financial Regulation[D],American Political Science Review 91, 1997, p.531-551.
[7]Klein, M. and Olivei, Capital Account Liberalization, Financial Depth and Economic Growth[G], mimeo, Boston, Massachusetts:Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, 2001
[8]Edwards, Capital Mobility and Economic Performance:Are Emerging Economies Different?[S],NBER Working Paper No.8076,2001
[9]Kraay, In search of the Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Account Liberalization,[A], unpublished manuscript, The World Bank, October,1998.
[10]Rodric.Who needs capital account convertibility?,[D], Essays in International Finance No.207, Princeton:Princeton University Press(May),1998,p.55-65.
[11]Eichengreen, Capital Account Liberalization:What Do the Cross-Country Show us?[B]. World Bank Economic Review 15, No.3,2002, p.341-366
[12]Kindleberger.International short-term capital movement[C], Columbia University,1937. Press:2-11
[13]Khan and Haque, Foreign Borrowing and Capital Flight. IMF Staff Papers, No.32,1985
[14]Lessard,.and John Williamson. Capital Flight and Third World Debt [M]. Washington D.C:Institute for International Ecoomics, 1987: 27-67
[15]Cuddington. Capital Flight:Estimate, Issues, and Explanations. Princeton Studies in International Finance.1986
[16]Dornbusch, Capital Flight:Theory, Measurement and Policy Issues[R].Inter-American Development Bank Occasion Paper No.2.1990
[17]Walter, Secret Money [I], London,George Allen and Unwin,1987
[18]Dooley, Country Specific Risk Premiums, Capital Flight and Net Investment Income Payments in Selected Developing Countries,1986 [1] Kim T. International Money and Banking, London,1993
[20]Tornell, A & A Velasco.The tragedy of the commons and economic growth:Why does capital flow from poor to rich countries[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1992,100(6):1208-1231
[21]Paul Collier, Anke Hoeffler and Catherine Pattilo. Capital Flight as a Choice of Investment[R].World Bank:Working paper,1999:5-16.
[22]Johnston and Ryan, Sequencing Capital Account Liberalization,[B], Finance and Development 35,1998,p.20-23.
[23]Edwards, How Effective are Capital Controls? [J], Journal of Economic Perspectives, Fall, Vol.13, No.4,1999,p.65-84.
[24]Schneider, Issues in Capital Account Convertibility in Developing Countries,[B], Overseas Development Institute,2000.
[25]Bejia, Was Capital Fleeing Southeast Asia? Estimates from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and the Thailand. [T].preliminary paper,2004
[26]Schneider, Measuring Capital Flight:Estimates and Interpretations,[B], Overseas Development Institute, working paper 194,2001.
[27]易纲.资本项目自由化：顺序、配套问题和案例分析[R].北京大学1999年度重点课题报告.1999：42-47.
[28]张礼卿.发展中国家的资本账户开放：理论、政策与经验[M].经济科学出版社.2003
[29]孙伊然.中国开放资本项目的成本收益分析[J].生产力研究,2007(19)：22-29
[30]滕听.中国资本账户开放的利益和风险分析及策略选择[D].陕西师范大学硕士论文.2004
[31]刘继广.人民币离岸金融运行机理分析[D].上海社会科学院博士论文.2005
[32]李婧,管涛,何帆.人民币跨境流通的现状及对中国经济的影响[J].管理世界.2004(09).
[33]李扬.国际资本流动与我国宏观经济稳定[J].经济研究,1995(6)：12-20
[34]宋文兵.中国的资本外逃问题研究：1987-1997[J].经济研究.1999(5)：39-48
[35]李晓峰.中国资本外逃的理论与现实[J].管理世界.2000(4)：123-133
[36]杨胜刚,刘宗华.资本外逃与中国的现实选择[J].金融研究.2000(2)：73-79
[37]杨胜刚.中国资本外逃规模估测的实证研究[J].湖南大学学报.2003(6)：42-47.
[38]牛晓健,姜波克.中国资本项目下的资本外逃研究[J].财经研究.2005.(10)：14-21
[39]高增安.转移定价-洗钱-资本外逃关联机制透视[J].经济学家.2009,(11)：79-84
[40]韩继云.1989—1998：中国资本外逃实证分析[J].财经论丛.2000(1)：41-48
[41]田晓霞.中国资本外逃规模的重新估算：1982—1999[J].金融研究.2000(8)：72-82
[42]李庆云,田晓霞.中国资本外逃的影响因素[J].世界经济.2000(9)：3-9.
[43]杨海珍.资本外逃—国际趋势与中国问题[M].中国金融出版社.2005.
[44]牛晓健.中国经济转型时期资本外逃研究[M].上海人民出版社.2005.
[45]王振全,汪寿阳.我国资本外逃的渠道、规模与对策[J].中国科学院院刊.vol.21.2006
[46]黄先开,王振全.资本流动检测与预警[M].经济科学出版社.2008
[47]杨海珍.中国资本外逃影响因素的计量分析[J].数理统计和管理.2002(11)：1-7
[48]全海欣.中国资本外逃剖析[D].南开大学博士论文.2009
[49]高增安.贸易洗钱与反洗钱研究[M].科学出版社.2011.
[50]高增安.基于交易的可疑洗钱行为模式与反洗钱对策研究[D].西南交通大学博士学位论文.2007c：30-73
[51]黄彤华,王振全,汪寿阳.中国资本外逃规模重新估算1982-2004[J].管理评论.2006(6)：11-19.
[52]高增安.国际贸易可疑洗钱行为透析[J].财经科学.2007b,3：112-117.
[53]高增安.国家反洗钱的理论与战略探讨[J].社会科学.2010(2)：24-29.
[54]黄彤华,王振全.中国BOP表外资本外逃的主要渠道—进出口伪报分析[J].北京工商大学学报.2007(5)：6-10.
[55]蓝发钦.中国资本项目开放的测度[J].华东师范大学学报.2005(2)：87-94.
[56]娄伶俐.资本账户开放测度方法：比较与综合[J].国际金融研究.2011(8)：41-49.
[57]倪权生,潘英丽.G20国家资本账户开放度比较研究—基于改进的约束式测度法[J].世界经济研究.2009(2)：19-22.
[58]杨胜刚.资本外逃与中国对策[M].湖南大学出版社.2003
[59]张屹山,张鹏.资本和金融项目开放对中国宏观经济影响的实证分析[J].中国工业 经济.2010(5)：27-36.
[60]Philip R. Lane, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti. The External Wealth of Nations:Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities for Industrial and Developing Countries[J]. Journal of International Economics,2001
[61]Edison, Levine, Luca. Torsten Sloek.2002, International Financial Integration and Economic Growth. IMF working paper, wp/02/145
[62]Edwards, Sebastian. Capital mobility, capital controls, and globalization in the twenty-first century [M].The annals of the American A-academy of Political and Science.2002:249-260.
[63]李卫群.资本项目开放与经济增长研究的比较分析[J].国际贸易问题.2005(8)：105-109
[64]李继伟.资本项目开放中的货币危机预警研究[J].南方金融.2010(12)：24-30