基于市场模型的我国猪肉供需研究
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摘要
我国是生猪生产大国也是猪肉消费大国,生猪产业在我国畜牧业生产和城乡居民生活消费中都占据举足轻重的位置。现今,猪肉供需面临各种因素的冲击而受到相应的影响。本研究采取从局部到整体的顺序进行剖析,找出制约生猪产业发展的深层次因素,构建生猪市场模型,用以模拟各种外部因素冲击后的反应,为生猪政策制定和评估提供定量分析依据。
我国的猪肉生产区域发展呈现向饲料粮生产基地转移的趋势。生猪出栏价格行情较好的月份是每年的8月、9月、10月和11月。近年来生猪养殖的规模化程度快速上升,相比较规模化养殖场,散养户养殖效率相对较低,生猪规模化生产是其发展趋势。
城乡居民肉类消费结构中,猪肉是肉类消费的主体,农村居民猪肉消费的比重非常高,但是城乡居民猪肉消费占整个肉类消费的比重逐年下降。猪肉价格是影响猪肉消费的关键因素,2007年后猪肉价格处于高位且波动较大,虽然猪肉农场价格到零售价格的价格差也有小幅上升,但是其占零售价格比重较小;同时猪肉零售价格显现很强的季节性,在8、9、10和11月猪肉价格一般处于高位。除了市场因素,城乡居民越来越关注猪肉质量,随着收入水平的继续上升,对质量好的猪肉需求将会越旺盛。
我国生猪生产总量处于世界的领先地位,接下来是美国、德国等国。相对于猪肉生产量,我国的猪肉进出量比较小。我国的出口市场主要是我国香港地区、澳门地区、东欧国家和非洲国家。我国进口生鲜及冷冻猪肉国家主要是美国、法国和丹麦等生猪生产大国;另外我国还进口大量的猪头、尾和猪下水等产品,最大贸易伙伴是丹麦。我国的活猪进出口主要是进口种猪,我国每年要从美国、丹麦、英国、法国等国家进口大量良种种猪。
生猪市场模型系统包含22条方程式,相互联系,采用高斯-赛德尔法对生猪市场模型系统进行迭代求解。生猪产业市场模型基准值说明生猪产业在未来10年还将持续发展,生猪生产能力持续提高,猪肉消费持续强劲,进口快速上升,出口小幅下降。
生猪市场情景模拟结果显示:调整和提高城乡居民收入政策对生猪市场的总体影响是刺激了猪肉消费、同时又促进了生猪产业的持续发展。人民币升值情景下,我国生猪生产的饲料成本下降,猪肉进口量上升,出口量相对萎缩,城乡居民猪肉消费都有所上升。疫病风险使养殖户在价格不断走低的情况仍然提前出栏大批生猪,能繁母猪存栏量出现大幅下降。生猪规模化率提高情景下,生猪供给能力增强,生猪价格和猪肉价格都下降,城乡居民猪肉消费量将受到正向刺激。
China is main pig production country; meanwhile, it also consumes huge quantity pork. Pigs are very important for Chinese livestock sector and livelihoods of both urban and rural people. Nowadays, there are many adverse factors which have shock to pigs market. The supply and demand of pork is in corresponding shock with those factors. This study on pig sector is in the sequence of subsystem, total system of pigs’production and consumption to find out the driving factors and restricting factors of pigs industry. Finally, it will make one market model to simulate those driving factors and restricting factors to provide quantitative analysis.
Pig production has tendency for shifting to main feed grains production areas. Pig price is the character for season, and it is mainly in August, September, October and November for good marketing price. Intensive pig production is the tendency for future. Large-scale farms recently increased dramatically. Compared to large-scale farms, small householders for pig producing are in low efficient. Pork is main meat consumption for urban and rural residents, especially rural residents with very high proportion of pork consumption to meat consumption. It is also obvious that the proportion of pork consumption to meat consumption has been declining year after year. Pork price is always the key factor for influencing the pork consumption. Since 2007, pork price is always at high level and large fluctuation, and the spread of price between farm price and retailed price also went up, but price spread only accounted for small percentage to retail price. It is the similar as pigs price, the pork price is generally highs in August, September, October and December. Residents pay more and more attention to quality of pork, so demand of good quality pork increase with the improvement of income.
Pig’s production of China is the top one in world, followed by US and Germany. In China, the quantity of pork export and import of pork is little to compare to domestic production. Hong Kong and Macao is our staple pork market. China mainly imports the fresh and frozen pork from US, France and Denmark which are main pig production countries. China also imports offal and head of pigs, Denmark is our biggest trade partner for offal and head of pigs. In future, it is potential for import offal and head of pigs. China didn’t import the live pigs for slaughtering, only import sows from US,Denmark, Britain, France and other countries.
Pork market model system contains 22 equations which are mutual connection. Pork market model is solved by using the Gauss-Seidel method for iteration. The baseline for pork market model showed that pig production will continue to develop and the consumption of pork will be strong growth in next 10 years. As international trade, the import will increase dramatically; nevertheless, the export of pork will decline by small margin.
The great use of market model is to simulate different scenarios in market model, so it is necessary to set four scenarios in pork market. (1) First scenario is about adjusting income distribution and improves the income policy. It stimulates the pork consumption and pork production, which don’t push up the price of pork largely. In this way, it can improve the standard of living of the urban and rural residents and keep the pig sector sustainable development. (2) Second scenario is about RMB appreciation, the price of feed decrease, and pork price also decline which lead to increase of the pork consumption. Import of pork is improved greatly, which also cause the decline of pork price. (3) Third scenario is about the epidemics risk of pigs. Farmers will slaughter pigs in advance; even though the pig price is very low. Farmers are very worried about disease, so it is best way to reduce inventory of sows. (4) Fourth scenario is about raising the rate of large-scale farms. It will strengthen the supply ability of pigs and reduce price of pigs and price of pork. Lower prices can stimulate the urban and rural residents to consume more pork.
我国的猪肉生产区域发展呈现向饲料粮生产基地转移的趋势。生猪出栏价格行情较好的月份是每年的8月、9月、10月和11月。近年来生猪养殖的规模化程度快速上升,相比较规模化养殖场,散养户养殖效率相对较低,生猪规模化生产是其发展趋势。
城乡居民肉类消费结构中,猪肉是肉类消费的主体,农村居民猪肉消费的比重非常高,但是城乡居民猪肉消费占整个肉类消费的比重逐年下降。猪肉价格是影响猪肉消费的关键因素,2007年后猪肉价格处于高位且波动较大,虽然猪肉农场价格到零售价格的价格差也有小幅上升,但是其占零售价格比重较小;同时猪肉零售价格显现很强的季节性,在8、9、10和11月猪肉价格一般处于高位。除了市场因素,城乡居民越来越关注猪肉质量,随着收入水平的继续上升,对质量好的猪肉需求将会越旺盛。
我国生猪生产总量处于世界的领先地位,接下来是美国、德国等国。相对于猪肉生产量,我国的猪肉进出量比较小。我国的出口市场主要是我国香港地区、澳门地区、东欧国家和非洲国家。我国进口生鲜及冷冻猪肉国家主要是美国、法国和丹麦等生猪生产大国;另外我国还进口大量的猪头、尾和猪下水等产品,最大贸易伙伴是丹麦。我国的活猪进出口主要是进口种猪,我国每年要从美国、丹麦、英国、法国等国家进口大量良种种猪。
生猪市场模型系统包含22条方程式,相互联系,采用高斯-赛德尔法对生猪市场模型系统进行迭代求解。生猪产业市场模型基准值说明生猪产业在未来10年还将持续发展,生猪生产能力持续提高,猪肉消费持续强劲,进口快速上升,出口小幅下降。
生猪市场情景模拟结果显示:调整和提高城乡居民收入政策对生猪市场的总体影响是刺激了猪肉消费、同时又促进了生猪产业的持续发展。人民币升值情景下,我国生猪生产的饲料成本下降,猪肉进口量上升,出口量相对萎缩,城乡居民猪肉消费都有所上升。疫病风险使养殖户在价格不断走低的情况仍然提前出栏大批生猪,能繁母猪存栏量出现大幅下降。生猪规模化率提高情景下,生猪供给能力增强,生猪价格和猪肉价格都下降,城乡居民猪肉消费量将受到正向刺激。
China is main pig production country; meanwhile, it also consumes huge quantity pork. Pigs are very important for Chinese livestock sector and livelihoods of both urban and rural people. Nowadays, there are many adverse factors which have shock to pigs market. The supply and demand of pork is in corresponding shock with those factors. This study on pig sector is in the sequence of subsystem, total system of pigs’production and consumption to find out the driving factors and restricting factors of pigs industry. Finally, it will make one market model to simulate those driving factors and restricting factors to provide quantitative analysis.
Pig production has tendency for shifting to main feed grains production areas. Pig price is the character for season, and it is mainly in August, September, October and November for good marketing price. Intensive pig production is the tendency for future. Large-scale farms recently increased dramatically. Compared to large-scale farms, small householders for pig producing are in low efficient. Pork is main meat consumption for urban and rural residents, especially rural residents with very high proportion of pork consumption to meat consumption. It is also obvious that the proportion of pork consumption to meat consumption has been declining year after year. Pork price is always the key factor for influencing the pork consumption. Since 2007, pork price is always at high level and large fluctuation, and the spread of price between farm price and retailed price also went up, but price spread only accounted for small percentage to retail price. It is the similar as pigs price, the pork price is generally highs in August, September, October and December. Residents pay more and more attention to quality of pork, so demand of good quality pork increase with the improvement of income.
Pig’s production of China is the top one in world, followed by US and Germany. In China, the quantity of pork export and import of pork is little to compare to domestic production. Hong Kong and Macao is our staple pork market. China mainly imports the fresh and frozen pork from US, France and Denmark which are main pig production countries. China also imports offal and head of pigs, Denmark is our biggest trade partner for offal and head of pigs. In future, it is potential for import offal and head of pigs. China didn’t import the live pigs for slaughtering, only import sows from US,Denmark, Britain, France and other countries.
Pork market model system contains 22 equations which are mutual connection. Pork market model is solved by using the Gauss-Seidel method for iteration. The baseline for pork market model showed that pig production will continue to develop and the consumption of pork will be strong growth in next 10 years. As international trade, the import will increase dramatically; nevertheless, the export of pork will decline by small margin.
The great use of market model is to simulate different scenarios in market model, so it is necessary to set four scenarios in pork market. (1) First scenario is about adjusting income distribution and improves the income policy. It stimulates the pork consumption and pork production, which don’t push up the price of pork largely. In this way, it can improve the standard of living of the urban and rural residents and keep the pig sector sustainable development. (2) Second scenario is about RMB appreciation, the price of feed decrease, and pork price also decline which lead to increase of the pork consumption. Import of pork is improved greatly, which also cause the decline of pork price. (3) Third scenario is about the epidemics risk of pigs. Farmers will slaughter pigs in advance; even though the pig price is very low. Farmers are very worried about disease, so it is best way to reduce inventory of sows. (4) Fourth scenario is about raising the rate of large-scale farms. It will strengthen the supply ability of pigs and reduce price of pigs and price of pork. Lower prices can stimulate the urban and rural residents to consume more pork.
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