济南市城市水资源承载力计算及其调控模式研究
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摘要
水资源短缺已成为济南市国民经济发展的“瓶颈”。作为水问题突出的省会城市,现状水资源到底能供多少人生活、能灌溉多少农田、能供多少工业用水和环境用水,而且在未来节水、引水等措施实施后,如何既达到保泉又能扩大供水能力,这无疑对城市今后的发展都具有十分重要的现实意义。因此,进行济南市水资源承载力及其调控模式研究十分重要。
本次研究根据济南市的实际情况,以泉群的喷涌为研究切入点,选取了按效益最大化原则分配水量为目标,以水资源量、国民经济、人口、生态环境作为约束条件,构建了济南市水资源承载力多目标情景分析模型,计算了不同供水条件下的水资源承载力方案,并对设计方案进行了评价。根据模型计算结果和方案评价,提出了济南市城市水资源承载力调控模式。结论如下:
1、在目前研究的基础上,定义了城市水资源承载力的概念,并分析了城市水资源承载力的内涵。
2、综合考虑社会、经济、生态等多种因素,利用GAMS软件系统(通用数学仿真系统)构建了济南市城市水资源承载力模型(UWRCC),分别计算了满足泉群常年性喷涌和季节性喷涌等不同条件下、不同水平年济南市区最大承载力。
3、利用指数评价法对济南市区水资源承载程度进行了评价。在不考虑保泉的情况下,现状和规划水平年济南市人水关系均呈可持续发展状态;在考虑泉群季节性喷涌的情况下,2010水平年水资源承载力处于弱度缺载状态,人水关系呈可持续发展状态,而现状年和2020水平年则处于临界状态,人水关系呈潜在危险状态;在考虑泉群常年喷涌的情况下,现状水平年和2010水平年人水关系均呈不可持续发展状态。
4、针对目前济南市水资源开发利用中存在的问题,如地下水超采、有效利用率低、水质污染严重等一系列问题,有针对性地从资源性、结构性、经济性、技术性、管理性等方面入手,在宏观和微观两个层面上,构建了提高济南市水资源承载力的措施体系和调控模式。
Water resources Insufficient in Jinan city has become the critical barrier of local social and economic development. As a provincial city facing such prominent water issue, how many people can be provided, how much field can be irrigated, and how many factories and environment’s need can be meet with local present water resources? Furthermore, after having executed comprehensive counter-measures in the future, how to ensure the spring spurting continuously and meanwhile enlarge water supplying capacity. This undoubtedly will play an important role in the city’s development. Therefore, the research concerning Jinan city’s water resources carrying capacity and adjusting pattern is very important..
Based on Jinan city’s reality, concentrating on the springs spurting, choosing the most benefit as the water resources allocating goals, and under the condition of local water resources , population and ecosystem environment , this research constructs Jinan city’s water resources carrying capacity multi-objectives model, calculates different water resources carrying capacity, and appraise the designed pattern. According to the ends of model calculation and patterns appraising, the research puts forward Jinan city’s urban water resources carrying capacity(UWRCC) adjusting and controling patterns. Conclusions are as below:
Firstly,based on present researchs, this article define the urban water resources carrying cappacity(UWRCC) and analyse its contents.
Secondly, considering ecomical , social and ecological factors comprehensively,making use of GAMS soft system, this research constructs Jinan city’s UWRCC, and calculates the most UWRCC under different conditions in different years.
Thirdly, the article appraises Jinan city’s UWRCC by the use of index. Without considering springs spurting, the relationships between the human beings and the water resources are harmonious at the present year and the other two designed years. However, considering springs spurting seasonly, the UWRCC in 2010 will be less than its limit. Considering springs spurting continuously, the relationship between the human beings and the water resources in three different years are not harmonious.
Finally, the article put forward Jinan city’s UWRCC adjusting and controling patterns from general and practical levels in face of local problems concerning water isuues, such as over-exploiting underground water, lower water using effect and wter pollution etc.
本次研究根据济南市的实际情况,以泉群的喷涌为研究切入点,选取了按效益最大化原则分配水量为目标,以水资源量、国民经济、人口、生态环境作为约束条件,构建了济南市水资源承载力多目标情景分析模型,计算了不同供水条件下的水资源承载力方案,并对设计方案进行了评价。根据模型计算结果和方案评价,提出了济南市城市水资源承载力调控模式。结论如下:
1、在目前研究的基础上,定义了城市水资源承载力的概念,并分析了城市水资源承载力的内涵。
2、综合考虑社会、经济、生态等多种因素,利用GAMS软件系统(通用数学仿真系统)构建了济南市城市水资源承载力模型(UWRCC),分别计算了满足泉群常年性喷涌和季节性喷涌等不同条件下、不同水平年济南市区最大承载力。
3、利用指数评价法对济南市区水资源承载程度进行了评价。在不考虑保泉的情况下,现状和规划水平年济南市人水关系均呈可持续发展状态;在考虑泉群季节性喷涌的情况下,2010水平年水资源承载力处于弱度缺载状态,人水关系呈可持续发展状态,而现状年和2020水平年则处于临界状态,人水关系呈潜在危险状态;在考虑泉群常年喷涌的情况下,现状水平年和2010水平年人水关系均呈不可持续发展状态。
4、针对目前济南市水资源开发利用中存在的问题,如地下水超采、有效利用率低、水质污染严重等一系列问题,有针对性地从资源性、结构性、经济性、技术性、管理性等方面入手,在宏观和微观两个层面上,构建了提高济南市水资源承载力的措施体系和调控模式。
Water resources Insufficient in Jinan city has become the critical barrier of local social and economic development. As a provincial city facing such prominent water issue, how many people can be provided, how much field can be irrigated, and how many factories and environment’s need can be meet with local present water resources? Furthermore, after having executed comprehensive counter-measures in the future, how to ensure the spring spurting continuously and meanwhile enlarge water supplying capacity. This undoubtedly will play an important role in the city’s development. Therefore, the research concerning Jinan city’s water resources carrying capacity and adjusting pattern is very important..
Based on Jinan city’s reality, concentrating on the springs spurting, choosing the most benefit as the water resources allocating goals, and under the condition of local water resources , population and ecosystem environment , this research constructs Jinan city’s water resources carrying capacity multi-objectives model, calculates different water resources carrying capacity, and appraise the designed pattern. According to the ends of model calculation and patterns appraising, the research puts forward Jinan city’s urban water resources carrying capacity(UWRCC) adjusting and controling patterns. Conclusions are as below:
Firstly,based on present researchs, this article define the urban water resources carrying cappacity(UWRCC) and analyse its contents.
Secondly, considering ecomical , social and ecological factors comprehensively,making use of GAMS soft system, this research constructs Jinan city’s UWRCC, and calculates the most UWRCC under different conditions in different years.
Thirdly, the article appraises Jinan city’s UWRCC by the use of index. Without considering springs spurting, the relationships between the human beings and the water resources are harmonious at the present year and the other two designed years. However, considering springs spurting seasonly, the UWRCC in 2010 will be less than its limit. Considering springs spurting continuously, the relationship between the human beings and the water resources in three different years are not harmonious.
Finally, the article put forward Jinan city’s UWRCC adjusting and controling patterns from general and practical levels in face of local problems concerning water isuues, such as over-exploiting underground water, lower water using effect and wter pollution etc.
引文
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