大型地下洞室群工程稳定性风险评估系统及其应用研究
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摘要
随着国民经济的飞速发展,与交通建设及水利、矿产资源开发等有关的地下空间工程越来越多,它们的安全性关系着国计民生,因此急需要开展隧道、地下厂房等地下空间工程的施工和运行期间稳定性及风险分析研究。相对于隧道、边坡等其他岩石工程,地下厂房类洞室群的风险分析方面的相关研究却很少。本文研究针对地下厂房类洞室群的特点,以进行地下工程,特别是地下洞室群工程风险评估研究的理论和实用方法为目标,在其基本理论体系、关键基础问题、基本评估方法等方面开展了系统的研究工作;借助系统的方法和模糊数学对工程进行了稳定性评价,继而建立适合大型地下洞室群工程的风险评价体系,这是预防地下工程事故的有效措施,也对地下工程的设计、施工和稳定性维护具有重要的指导作用。
通过国内外大量文献研究,分析了国内外稳定性风险研究进展、现状以及风险分析在岩石地下工程中的应用,介绍了风险的基本概念,深入讨论各种分析方法,研究了稳定性及风险研究存在的问题及发展的方向,指出目前“半定量半定性”的风险分析方法仍是地下工程,特别是地下洞室群风险分析中可操作性强的办法;以此为基础,提出了本文的研究方向和研究内容。
对地下洞室群结构进行风险识别,研究了在地下隐蔽工程中存在的大量不确定性,正是这些不确定性决定了稳定性风险分析的随机性、模糊性、动态性;对地下工程失稳事故发生的机理进行了分析,从力学理论角度,确定了会导致洞室群失稳的风险指标因素。
系统地研究了地下工程稳定性判据,以及各类判据的应用方法。以改进的“弹塑性位移相对值”判据为主,其它判据为辅,定义了地下洞室群工程稳定性风险判别指标“SI”;根据不同的稳定性风险判别指标来划分不同的稳定等级,对洞室的稳定性进行判断。
构造多因素多层次评价模型,将模糊数学和系统论方法应用到工程的稳定性评价中。采用层次分析法(AHP)对影响洞室稳定的因素进行权重分析,得出多级层次各因素的权重;当洞室群稳定影响因素取不同的分位值时,利用已有的数值模拟方法对在建或已建的工程进行各种工况的数值模拟分析,提取位移结果计算得到风险失稳指标“SI”,所有指标汇总值组成“模糊隶属数据库”,用确定性方法表达了岩石工程中的不确定性,解决了洞室群在进行多因素综合模糊评判时最关键的问题。今后,某个具体工程各个因素对评价集的隶属度可以直接在库中查询到,然后逐级评判,最终根据最大隶属度原则,给出洞室群的稳定性的模糊级别,对洞室的稳定性作出评价。
在得出洞室群稳定性等级的基础上,整体研究洞室群工程的风险。建立风险评估体系,用综合模糊评判模型将风险的两大要素“概率”和“后果”联系起来,并引入“监控程度”和“重视程度”两个因素;综合考虑四大因素,建立了合理的风险评估模型、评价风险等级、各评价因素的隶属函数,将不精确的表达和处理数字化,使评估过程更趋科学化。为进行科学合理的地下工程,特别是地下洞室群风险评价提供了一种新方法,为今后新建地下洞室群的风险评估提供了借鉴。
将前面风险分析研究应用在风险控制中,用VB语言开发了Stability RiskAssessment Analysis软件;结合沪蓉西高速公路乌池坝隧道工程施工中的突发事件紧急预案演练为例讲述了风险预警机制的建立。最后,对地下工程风险分析理论和方法进行了总结展望,明确了地下洞室群工程稳定性风险分析中存在的问题及今后努力的方向。
With the development of national economy and progress of the society, the under-ground engineering related with traffic construction, irrigation works and mineral resources etc. are paid attention to by people day by day. Their safety is contacted with the people life. So studying the stability and risk of the under-ground engineering such as tunnel and workshop is necessary assuredly. Compared with other rock engineering such as tunnel or slope, the research of risk analysis about under-ground workshop cavern group is absent. According to characteristics of underground engineering, the goal of this paper is researching the theory and practical method of underground cavern group stability and risk evaluation. The studying work on basic theory, key foundation and essential evaluating method are carried out. The stability of underground engineering is evaluated by means of system approach and fuzzy mathematics, and further risk evaluating system is founded to adapted to underground cavern group works. All these work can prevent the occurrence of underground accident effectively. It's important guidance to the design, construction and stability maintenance of underground engineering.
Based on study of the relevant literature at home and abroad, the author analyzes the research development, results, problems, and trends in this field. The essential conception is introduced and all kinds of analyzing method are discussed. It is reasonable that the "half-qualitative half-quantitative" risk analysis method is applied on the underground works especially the cavern group engineering. Based on above analysis, the author set the research direction and content accordingly.
The risk factors in underground caverns are identified. Much uncertainty in the underground hidden projects is studied and they induced the stochastic, fuzziness and dynamics in the stability risk. And then the mechanism of instability accident is researched. Risk index are confirmed that may introduce rock cavern to instability, from mechanics principles.
The underground project stability criteria and a variety of criteria applied to the most intuitive are studied. Based on the most useful "relative displacement of elastic-plastic," supplemented by other criteria, the underground caverns identify indicators of risk the stability of the project "SI" is definited. Depending on the stability of the risk indicators to determine the stability of the division of the different grades of the chamber for the stability of the judge.
Multi-factor model and multi-level evaluating model is construction. Fuzzy systems theory and methods applied to the stability of the project evaluation. Using AHP (AHP) impact on the stability of the chamber's analysis of the weight factors, composing the weight factor of secondary levels. When the factors that affect the stability of the caverns take place at a different value, the use of the numerical simulation of the works for a variety of intrinsic conditions. The results of the extraction of displacement has been calculated risk indicators of instability "SI". All computing results composed the "fuzzy membership database". By this way, uncertainty is expressed by the certainty. The most critical issues of caverns can be confirmed though the multi-factor fuzzy evaluation. In the future, a specific project on the evaluation of the various factors may be queried from the database. And then in accordance with the ultimate the largest membership principle, the stability of the caverns of the fuzzy level will be ensured.
Subject to the findings of caverns level of stability on the basis of the totality of the caverns project risks. The establishment of a risk assessment system, using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model will be the two major risk factors "probability" and "consequences" link. At the same time, the "degree of control" and "attention" are introduced. The four major factors establish the reasonable risk assessment model to evaluate the risk level. The evaluation of the factors will be imprecise expression and processing of digital, that leads the evaluation process more scientific. Carrying out the work on the ground floor, especially on the underground caverns, provides a new ideas and methods to the risk assessment. That also provided a reference to the risk assessment in the underground caverns.
Based on the above research, the application of risk control are studied. VB language developed by Risk Analyze Software. Combined with emergency plan for emergency exercises of the Hurongxi expressway dam tunnel construction, warning mechanism is introduced. Finally, the conclusion and foreground of the engineering theory are summarized outlook. And the problem and researchful direction about the stability risk analysis in underground caverns engineering are indicated.
通过国内外大量文献研究,分析了国内外稳定性风险研究进展、现状以及风险分析在岩石地下工程中的应用,介绍了风险的基本概念,深入讨论各种分析方法,研究了稳定性及风险研究存在的问题及发展的方向,指出目前“半定量半定性”的风险分析方法仍是地下工程,特别是地下洞室群风险分析中可操作性强的办法;以此为基础,提出了本文的研究方向和研究内容。
对地下洞室群结构进行风险识别,研究了在地下隐蔽工程中存在的大量不确定性,正是这些不确定性决定了稳定性风险分析的随机性、模糊性、动态性;对地下工程失稳事故发生的机理进行了分析,从力学理论角度,确定了会导致洞室群失稳的风险指标因素。
系统地研究了地下工程稳定性判据,以及各类判据的应用方法。以改进的“弹塑性位移相对值”判据为主,其它判据为辅,定义了地下洞室群工程稳定性风险判别指标“SI”;根据不同的稳定性风险判别指标来划分不同的稳定等级,对洞室的稳定性进行判断。
构造多因素多层次评价模型,将模糊数学和系统论方法应用到工程的稳定性评价中。采用层次分析法(AHP)对影响洞室稳定的因素进行权重分析,得出多级层次各因素的权重;当洞室群稳定影响因素取不同的分位值时,利用已有的数值模拟方法对在建或已建的工程进行各种工况的数值模拟分析,提取位移结果计算得到风险失稳指标“SI”,所有指标汇总值组成“模糊隶属数据库”,用确定性方法表达了岩石工程中的不确定性,解决了洞室群在进行多因素综合模糊评判时最关键的问题。今后,某个具体工程各个因素对评价集的隶属度可以直接在库中查询到,然后逐级评判,最终根据最大隶属度原则,给出洞室群的稳定性的模糊级别,对洞室的稳定性作出评价。
在得出洞室群稳定性等级的基础上,整体研究洞室群工程的风险。建立风险评估体系,用综合模糊评判模型将风险的两大要素“概率”和“后果”联系起来,并引入“监控程度”和“重视程度”两个因素;综合考虑四大因素,建立了合理的风险评估模型、评价风险等级、各评价因素的隶属函数,将不精确的表达和处理数字化,使评估过程更趋科学化。为进行科学合理的地下工程,特别是地下洞室群风险评价提供了一种新方法,为今后新建地下洞室群的风险评估提供了借鉴。
将前面风险分析研究应用在风险控制中,用VB语言开发了Stability RiskAssessment Analysis软件;结合沪蓉西高速公路乌池坝隧道工程施工中的突发事件紧急预案演练为例讲述了风险预警机制的建立。最后,对地下工程风险分析理论和方法进行了总结展望,明确了地下洞室群工程稳定性风险分析中存在的问题及今后努力的方向。
With the development of national economy and progress of the society, the under-ground engineering related with traffic construction, irrigation works and mineral resources etc. are paid attention to by people day by day. Their safety is contacted with the people life. So studying the stability and risk of the under-ground engineering such as tunnel and workshop is necessary assuredly. Compared with other rock engineering such as tunnel or slope, the research of risk analysis about under-ground workshop cavern group is absent. According to characteristics of underground engineering, the goal of this paper is researching the theory and practical method of underground cavern group stability and risk evaluation. The studying work on basic theory, key foundation and essential evaluating method are carried out. The stability of underground engineering is evaluated by means of system approach and fuzzy mathematics, and further risk evaluating system is founded to adapted to underground cavern group works. All these work can prevent the occurrence of underground accident effectively. It's important guidance to the design, construction and stability maintenance of underground engineering.
Based on study of the relevant literature at home and abroad, the author analyzes the research development, results, problems, and trends in this field. The essential conception is introduced and all kinds of analyzing method are discussed. It is reasonable that the "half-qualitative half-quantitative" risk analysis method is applied on the underground works especially the cavern group engineering. Based on above analysis, the author set the research direction and content accordingly.
The risk factors in underground caverns are identified. Much uncertainty in the underground hidden projects is studied and they induced the stochastic, fuzziness and dynamics in the stability risk. And then the mechanism of instability accident is researched. Risk index are confirmed that may introduce rock cavern to instability, from mechanics principles.
The underground project stability criteria and a variety of criteria applied to the most intuitive are studied. Based on the most useful "relative displacement of elastic-plastic," supplemented by other criteria, the underground caverns identify indicators of risk the stability of the project "SI" is definited. Depending on the stability of the risk indicators to determine the stability of the division of the different grades of the chamber for the stability of the judge.
Multi-factor model and multi-level evaluating model is construction. Fuzzy systems theory and methods applied to the stability of the project evaluation. Using AHP (AHP) impact on the stability of the chamber's analysis of the weight factors, composing the weight factor of secondary levels. When the factors that affect the stability of the caverns take place at a different value, the use of the numerical simulation of the works for a variety of intrinsic conditions. The results of the extraction of displacement has been calculated risk indicators of instability "SI". All computing results composed the "fuzzy membership database". By this way, uncertainty is expressed by the certainty. The most critical issues of caverns can be confirmed though the multi-factor fuzzy evaluation. In the future, a specific project on the evaluation of the various factors may be queried from the database. And then in accordance with the ultimate the largest membership principle, the stability of the caverns of the fuzzy level will be ensured.
Subject to the findings of caverns level of stability on the basis of the totality of the caverns project risks. The establishment of a risk assessment system, using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model will be the two major risk factors "probability" and "consequences" link. At the same time, the "degree of control" and "attention" are introduced. The four major factors establish the reasonable risk assessment model to evaluate the risk level. The evaluation of the factors will be imprecise expression and processing of digital, that leads the evaluation process more scientific. Carrying out the work on the ground floor, especially on the underground caverns, provides a new ideas and methods to the risk assessment. That also provided a reference to the risk assessment in the underground caverns.
Based on the above research, the application of risk control are studied. VB language developed by Risk Analyze Software. Combined with emergency plan for emergency exercises of the Hurongxi expressway dam tunnel construction, warning mechanism is introduced. Finally, the conclusion and foreground of the engineering theory are summarized outlook. And the problem and researchful direction about the stability risk analysis in underground caverns engineering are indicated.
引文
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