中国居民储蓄率对经济增长的影响效应分析
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摘要
一直维持在高位的居民储蓄率为投资提供了充沛的资金来源,这也是我国经济维持快速发展的重要因素。更为重要的是,源源不断的资金流保证了金融机构的流动性,增强了银行的稳定性。随着2008年席卷全球的金融危机的持续蔓延,全球经济增速都在放缓。我国作为一个外贸依赖型的国家,全球经济的下滑对我国经济的影响不容小视。所以,研究城乡居民储蓄率的变化对我国经济增长的影响对于拉动内需、保持我国经济的又好又快发展是迫在眉睫。本文在充分考虑我国特殊的“二元经济体制”的现状的情况下,对城镇和农村分别建立了居民储蓄率的变化与经济增长之间关系的实证模型,再通过计量经济分析方法估计具有相关经济含义的参数,从而通过对相关参数值涵义的分析得出本文的结论。结论表明,在我国改革开放以来的这三十年里,农村居民储蓄率对农村的经济发展具有很强的负面影响；城镇居民储蓄率对城镇经济的发展则影响不大,总体上影响并不显著。最后,本文根据理论分析和实证分析所得出的结论,提出了几点政策建议。
一、研究结论
1.城镇居民储蓄率对城镇经济增长率的影响不大,而农村居民储蓄率的变化则阻碍着农村经济的发展。
文章首先通过理论推导得出居民储蓄率与经济增长率和投资增长率之间的理论关系式,然后根据收集的数据,采用计量方法得出我国城乡经济增长率与城乡居民储蓄率和城乡投资增长率之间的实证模型。通过检验系数判定选择指标的显著性,从而剔除不显著的指标,最后推导出的实证模型很好地说明了城乡居民储蓄率与城乡经济增长率之间的关系。
2.我国居民的储蓄存款仍在增加,预防性储蓄在居民储蓄存款中占相当大地比重。
我国经济飞速发展,城乡居民的收入水平迅速增加,但住房、医疗、教育等高昂的价格还是让城乡居民的未来充满了变数。面对未来的不确定性,城乡居民势必会选择捂紧口袋,为预防而储蓄。
储蓄作为一种自发性行为,如果想通过某种政策性手段,使得居民储蓄在短期能有一个极大的变化,是不符合现实情况的；而且我国的传统文化一向以“勤俭节约”作为美德,所以使得城乡居民的储蓄率发生巨大波动在短期内是不可能的。
3.居民储蓄对金融体系和资本市场的巨大作用使居民储蓄率必须保持稳健,否则可能会掀起经济的巨大的波动,在今天这样一个经济全球化的世界里甚至会波及到全球。
这里所说的储蓄率要保持稳健,是指储蓄率在一段时期内的波动应该处于一个合理的区间,而不应在短期内有巨大的变化。储蓄率随着社会经济发展而变化,储蓄率能否处于一个最优的区间,关键要看其是否符合社会经济发展的客观要求,是否能够使公共经济与私人经济处于均衡的发展状态。但在实践中,这种客观存在的一个最优的区间却无法自动实现,由于储蓄实践中的各种主观因素的介入和扰动,尤其是公共分配行为的扭曲和谋取集团利益现象,使得储蓄率很难处于一个最优的区间,总是处于一个接近于最优的区间的这么一个范围里。所以,如何促使储蓄率处于一个最优的区间,如何使储蓄对经济发展的促进作用能够向着一个更加健康的方向发展,必须从以下几个方面采取措施：一、优化多层次的社会保障体系;二、拓展储蓄向投资的转化渠道;三、积极开拓新型消费市场,完善消费信贷政策。
二、政策建议
针对文术得出的研究结论,储蓄率的变化能够在短期内促进实际经济增长率的提高。笔者提出了以下几点参考性的思考政策建议：
1.优化多层次的社会保障体系,解决城乡居民的后顾之忧。
优化多层次的社会保障体系,尤其是要加快构建农村居民的社会保障体系,从而可以减少农村居民预防性储蓄的那一部分,减少农村居民储蓄率的变化对农村经济发展的抑制作用。
2.拓展储蓄向投资转化渠道,使城乡居民的储蓄资金平稳变动。
储蓄资金的波动过大对国民经济的健康发展不利,因此在积极拓展储蓄向投资转化渠道的同时,要保证储蓄资金健康、合理地转化为投资。
3.积极开拓新型消费市场,完善消费信贷政策,有利于拉动内需促进国民经济的发展。
随着生活水平的提高和生活节奏的加快,一些传统的消费观念已不能满足时下作为未来消费主力军的“80后”“90后”对时代的需求。随之而来的就是一些新的消费热潮的流行,如网上购物的火爆、绿色食品的热销、快餐行业的繁荣等等。
新的消费潮流带给人们便利的同时,也带来了一些监管上的困境,如网上诈骗、绿色食品的以假充真、快餐行业的健康卫生标准是否达标等等。另外,随着中西文化的交流,当代作为消费主力军的“80后”“90后”的消费观念也在悄悄地发生着变化,而且其对生活质量的要求也大大提高了,超前消费俨然已成为其头脑中唯一的消费观念。所以完善消费信贷政策,促进新型消费市场的规范化也是要着力解决的一大问题。
Investment has been provided plenty of sources of funding by maintaining at a high household savings rate,it is also an important factor that China's economy development remains the rate of rapid.More importantly.a steady stream of funds flow ensures the liquidity of financial institutions and enhances the stability of the bank.Swept through the continued spread of the global financial crisis in2008,global economic growth is slowing.As a foreign trade-dependent countries,the global economic slowdown on China's ecomomy can not be overlooked. Therefore, changes in urban and rural residents'savings rate of China's economic growth is an urgent need for stimulating domestic demand and keep our economy sound and rapid development. Take full account of our special "dual economic system." the status quo. towns and villages were established empirical model of the relationship between the household savings rate of change and economic growth, through an econometric analysis to estimate relevanteconomic meaning of the parameters, obtained through the analysis of the meaning of the relevant parameter values come to the conclusion of the article.The result concluded that the three decades since China's reform and opening up the rural residents'savings rate has a strong negative impact on rural economic development; urban household savings rate has little effect on urban economic development, the overall impact is notsignificant. Finally, according to the conclusions of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, the author puts forward some policy recommendations.
A.Research conclusions
a. Changes in urban household savings rate has little effect on urban economic growth rate, while rural residents'savings rate changes hamper the development of rural economy.The article first obtained through theoretical derivation of the theoretical relationship between the household savings rate and economic growth and investment growth, and then based on the data collected, using the measurement methods to draw the economic growth rate of China's urban and rural areas and urban and rural residents'savings rate, and urban and rural investment growthbetween the rate of an empirical model.Determine the choice of indicators by examining the coefficient was significant and thus removed is not a significant indicator of the presence of heteroscedasticity. through the weighted least squares method of correction. The last empirical model deduced a good illustration of the relationship between urban and rural residents'savings rate and the urban and rural economic growth.
b. The savings deposits of residents in China is still inereasing,precautionary savings in the household savings deposits accounted for the proportion considerably. China's rapid economic development, the income levels of urban and rural residents increased rapidly, but the high price of housing, health care, education or urban and rural residents of the future is full of variables. Faced with uncertainty about the future of urban and rural residents will inevitably choose Wujin pocket, save for prevention.
Savings as a spontaneous act. if you want a policy instrument, making residents' savings in the short term can have a great deal of change is not consistent with the reality; and China's traditional culture has always been the "thrift" as virtues, so that the huge fluctuations of the savings rate of the urban and rural residents is not possible in the short term.
c. Residents'savings on the great role of the financial system and capital markets must remain robust changes in the household savings rate, or they might set off a tremendous economic fluctuations, In today's world of economic globalization, and even spread to the global. Said the savings rate remained stable, the savings rate in the period fluctuations should be in a reasonable range, rather than a dramatic change in the short term. The savings rate varies with the socio-economic development, whether the savings rate in an optimal range, the key depends on whether to meet the objective requirements of social and economic development, whether public economy and private economy in a balanced state of development. But in practice, this objective existence of an optimal range but not automatically, due to the intervention and disturbance of the savings in practice a variety of subjective factors, especially the phenomenon of public distribution behavior of distortions and seek corporate interests, making the savings rateit is difficult in an optimal range, always in a range close to the optimal range. So, how to encourage savings rate in an optimal range, how to make savings on the role in promoting economic development to a more healthy direction, measures must be taken from the following aspects:First, the optimization of multi-level the social security system; Second, the expansion of savings to the conversion of investment channels;, and actively explore new consumer markets, improve consumer credit policy.
B.Policy Recommendations
a. An optimized multi-level social security system, to solve the worries of urban and rural residents. Optimization of multi-level social security system, especially to accelerate the building of rural residents in the social security system, which can reduce that part of the precautionary savings of rural residents, reducing the inhibition of the rural residents'savings rate of change on rural economic development.
b. Expand the conversion channel savings to investment, so savings of urban and rural residents to smooth changes. Fluctuations in savings is too large unfavorable to the healthy development of the national economy, actively expand the conversion channel savings to investment to ensure that health savings reasonably be translated into investment.
c. Actively explore new consumer markets, improve consumer credit policy, to stimulate domestic demand to promote the development of the national economy. With the improvement of living standards and the accelerated pace of life, some of the traditional concept of consumption can no longer meet today as the future consumption of the main force of the "80""90" on the needs of the times. Followed by some new consumption boom popular hot online shopping, selling of green food, fast food industry's prosperity. Bring new consumer trend of convenience at the same time, it also brings some of the regulatory predicament, such as online fraud, green food Impurities, health and hygiene standards of the fast food industry is meeting its objectives. In addition, the main force as a consumer, with the exchange of Chinese and Western cultures, the contemporary "80""90" consumer attitudes are quietly undergoing change, and the quality of life also greatly improved, excessive consumption seems to have beenbecome the only consumer attitudes of their minds. Therefore, to improve consumer credit policies to promote the standardization of the new consumer market is to make efforts to solve a big problem.
一、研究结论
1.城镇居民储蓄率对城镇经济增长率的影响不大,而农村居民储蓄率的变化则阻碍着农村经济的发展。
文章首先通过理论推导得出居民储蓄率与经济增长率和投资增长率之间的理论关系式,然后根据收集的数据,采用计量方法得出我国城乡经济增长率与城乡居民储蓄率和城乡投资增长率之间的实证模型。通过检验系数判定选择指标的显著性,从而剔除不显著的指标,最后推导出的实证模型很好地说明了城乡居民储蓄率与城乡经济增长率之间的关系。
2.我国居民的储蓄存款仍在增加,预防性储蓄在居民储蓄存款中占相当大地比重。
我国经济飞速发展,城乡居民的收入水平迅速增加,但住房、医疗、教育等高昂的价格还是让城乡居民的未来充满了变数。面对未来的不确定性,城乡居民势必会选择捂紧口袋,为预防而储蓄。
储蓄作为一种自发性行为,如果想通过某种政策性手段,使得居民储蓄在短期能有一个极大的变化,是不符合现实情况的；而且我国的传统文化一向以“勤俭节约”作为美德,所以使得城乡居民的储蓄率发生巨大波动在短期内是不可能的。
3.居民储蓄对金融体系和资本市场的巨大作用使居民储蓄率必须保持稳健,否则可能会掀起经济的巨大的波动,在今天这样一个经济全球化的世界里甚至会波及到全球。
这里所说的储蓄率要保持稳健,是指储蓄率在一段时期内的波动应该处于一个合理的区间,而不应在短期内有巨大的变化。储蓄率随着社会经济发展而变化,储蓄率能否处于一个最优的区间,关键要看其是否符合社会经济发展的客观要求,是否能够使公共经济与私人经济处于均衡的发展状态。但在实践中,这种客观存在的一个最优的区间却无法自动实现,由于储蓄实践中的各种主观因素的介入和扰动,尤其是公共分配行为的扭曲和谋取集团利益现象,使得储蓄率很难处于一个最优的区间,总是处于一个接近于最优的区间的这么一个范围里。所以,如何促使储蓄率处于一个最优的区间,如何使储蓄对经济发展的促进作用能够向着一个更加健康的方向发展,必须从以下几个方面采取措施：一、优化多层次的社会保障体系;二、拓展储蓄向投资的转化渠道;三、积极开拓新型消费市场,完善消费信贷政策。
二、政策建议
针对文术得出的研究结论,储蓄率的变化能够在短期内促进实际经济增长率的提高。笔者提出了以下几点参考性的思考政策建议：
1.优化多层次的社会保障体系,解决城乡居民的后顾之忧。
优化多层次的社会保障体系,尤其是要加快构建农村居民的社会保障体系,从而可以减少农村居民预防性储蓄的那一部分,减少农村居民储蓄率的变化对农村经济发展的抑制作用。
2.拓展储蓄向投资转化渠道,使城乡居民的储蓄资金平稳变动。
储蓄资金的波动过大对国民经济的健康发展不利,因此在积极拓展储蓄向投资转化渠道的同时,要保证储蓄资金健康、合理地转化为投资。
3.积极开拓新型消费市场,完善消费信贷政策,有利于拉动内需促进国民经济的发展。
随着生活水平的提高和生活节奏的加快,一些传统的消费观念已不能满足时下作为未来消费主力军的“80后”“90后”对时代的需求。随之而来的就是一些新的消费热潮的流行,如网上购物的火爆、绿色食品的热销、快餐行业的繁荣等等。
新的消费潮流带给人们便利的同时,也带来了一些监管上的困境,如网上诈骗、绿色食品的以假充真、快餐行业的健康卫生标准是否达标等等。另外,随着中西文化的交流,当代作为消费主力军的“80后”“90后”的消费观念也在悄悄地发生着变化,而且其对生活质量的要求也大大提高了,超前消费俨然已成为其头脑中唯一的消费观念。所以完善消费信贷政策,促进新型消费市场的规范化也是要着力解决的一大问题。
Investment has been provided plenty of sources of funding by maintaining at a high household savings rate,it is also an important factor that China's economy development remains the rate of rapid.More importantly.a steady stream of funds flow ensures the liquidity of financial institutions and enhances the stability of the bank.Swept through the continued spread of the global financial crisis in2008,global economic growth is slowing.As a foreign trade-dependent countries,the global economic slowdown on China's ecomomy can not be overlooked. Therefore, changes in urban and rural residents'savings rate of China's economic growth is an urgent need for stimulating domestic demand and keep our economy sound and rapid development. Take full account of our special "dual economic system." the status quo. towns and villages were established empirical model of the relationship between the household savings rate of change and economic growth, through an econometric analysis to estimate relevanteconomic meaning of the parameters, obtained through the analysis of the meaning of the relevant parameter values come to the conclusion of the article.The result concluded that the three decades since China's reform and opening up the rural residents'savings rate has a strong negative impact on rural economic development; urban household savings rate has little effect on urban economic development, the overall impact is notsignificant. Finally, according to the conclusions of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, the author puts forward some policy recommendations.
A.Research conclusions
a. Changes in urban household savings rate has little effect on urban economic growth rate, while rural residents'savings rate changes hamper the development of rural economy.The article first obtained through theoretical derivation of the theoretical relationship between the household savings rate and economic growth and investment growth, and then based on the data collected, using the measurement methods to draw the economic growth rate of China's urban and rural areas and urban and rural residents'savings rate, and urban and rural investment growthbetween the rate of an empirical model.Determine the choice of indicators by examining the coefficient was significant and thus removed is not a significant indicator of the presence of heteroscedasticity. through the weighted least squares method of correction. The last empirical model deduced a good illustration of the relationship between urban and rural residents'savings rate and the urban and rural economic growth.
b. The savings deposits of residents in China is still inereasing,precautionary savings in the household savings deposits accounted for the proportion considerably. China's rapid economic development, the income levels of urban and rural residents increased rapidly, but the high price of housing, health care, education or urban and rural residents of the future is full of variables. Faced with uncertainty about the future of urban and rural residents will inevitably choose Wujin pocket, save for prevention.
Savings as a spontaneous act. if you want a policy instrument, making residents' savings in the short term can have a great deal of change is not consistent with the reality; and China's traditional culture has always been the "thrift" as virtues, so that the huge fluctuations of the savings rate of the urban and rural residents is not possible in the short term.
c. Residents'savings on the great role of the financial system and capital markets must remain robust changes in the household savings rate, or they might set off a tremendous economic fluctuations, In today's world of economic globalization, and even spread to the global. Said the savings rate remained stable, the savings rate in the period fluctuations should be in a reasonable range, rather than a dramatic change in the short term. The savings rate varies with the socio-economic development, whether the savings rate in an optimal range, the key depends on whether to meet the objective requirements of social and economic development, whether public economy and private economy in a balanced state of development. But in practice, this objective existence of an optimal range but not automatically, due to the intervention and disturbance of the savings in practice a variety of subjective factors, especially the phenomenon of public distribution behavior of distortions and seek corporate interests, making the savings rateit is difficult in an optimal range, always in a range close to the optimal range. So, how to encourage savings rate in an optimal range, how to make savings on the role in promoting economic development to a more healthy direction, measures must be taken from the following aspects:First, the optimization of multi-level the social security system; Second, the expansion of savings to the conversion of investment channels;, and actively explore new consumer markets, improve consumer credit policy.
B.Policy Recommendations
a. An optimized multi-level social security system, to solve the worries of urban and rural residents. Optimization of multi-level social security system, especially to accelerate the building of rural residents in the social security system, which can reduce that part of the precautionary savings of rural residents, reducing the inhibition of the rural residents'savings rate of change on rural economic development.
b. Expand the conversion channel savings to investment, so savings of urban and rural residents to smooth changes. Fluctuations in savings is too large unfavorable to the healthy development of the national economy, actively expand the conversion channel savings to investment to ensure that health savings reasonably be translated into investment.
c. Actively explore new consumer markets, improve consumer credit policy, to stimulate domestic demand to promote the development of the national economy. With the improvement of living standards and the accelerated pace of life, some of the traditional concept of consumption can no longer meet today as the future consumption of the main force of the "80""90" on the needs of the times. Followed by some new consumption boom popular hot online shopping, selling of green food, fast food industry's prosperity. Bring new consumer trend of convenience at the same time, it also brings some of the regulatory predicament, such as online fraud, green food Impurities, health and hygiene standards of the fast food industry is meeting its objectives. In addition, the main force as a consumer, with the exchange of Chinese and Western cultures, the contemporary "80""90" consumer attitudes are quietly undergoing change, and the quality of life also greatly improved, excessive consumption seems to have beenbecome the only consumer attitudes of their minds. Therefore, to improve consumer credit policies to promote the standardization of the new consumer market is to make efforts to solve a big problem.
引文
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[21]夏轶.中国高储蓄率与经济增长方式转变研究[D].云南大学,2011年.
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[24]中国人民银行研究局课题组.中国国民储蓄和居民储蓄的影响因素[J].经济研究,1999(5)：3-10.
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[26]温涛.政府主导的农业信贷、财政支农模式的经济效应[J].中国农村经济,2005(10)：1827.
[27]赵志华等.内蒙古地区金融效率及其对经济增长支持的实证研究[J].金融岍究,2005(6)：145153.
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[31]蔡则祥,卢亚娟.居民储蓄高增长因析[J].金融理论与实践,2003(10)
[32]武剑.储蓄、投资和经济增长[J].经济研究,1999(11)：29-38.
[33]刘进,曲洋,丁伟.浅议我国储蓄率过高增长的原因与对策[J].经济参考,2004(22).
[34]郭树清,陈炳才.19962010年中国储蓄和投资前瞻[J].管理世界,1994(2).
[35]李泽广等.分省投资与信贷关系中的“门槛效应”：审视投资增长的新视角[J].金融研究,2010(5)：84-101.
[36]胡金焱、董鹏.农村金融发展与农民收入的关系：山东例证[J].改革,2008(2)：71-76.
[37]潘士远、罗德明.民间金融与经济发展[J].浸溶研究,2006(4)：134-141.
[38]杨天宇、贺婷.TFP增长率与中国的高储蓄率率[J].金融研究,2011(11)：16-30.
[39]程令国、张哗.早年的饥荒经历影响了人们的储蓄行为吗?——对我国居民高储蓄率的一个新解释[J].经济研究,2011(8)：119-132.
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[41]谢勇.中国农村居民储蓄率的影响因素分析[J].中国农村经济,2011(1)：9-16.
[42]Carroll. C.. and Weil D. Saving and growth:a reinterpretation[J].Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Public Policy Volume 40.1994.6:133-192.
[43]Christina Paxson, Saving and growth:Evidence from micro data[J].European Economic Review.1996.40:255-288.
[44| Dipendra Sinha and Tapen Sinha. Cart before the horse?The saving-growth nexus in Mexico[J].Economics Letters.1998.61:43-47.
[45]Pradeep Agrawal. The relaion between savings and growth:co-integration and causality evidence from Asia[J].Economics.2001.33:419-513.
[46]Patrick Toche. A tractable modle of precautionary saving in continuous time[J]. Economics Letters.2005.87:267-272.
[47]Kala.K:ataman.O; Norman.R.Investment and Growth:Nexus.Analysis and Prognosis[J].Journal of Developing Economics.2007.70:479-499.
[48]Chen.K..A.Imrohoroglu.and S. Imrohoroglu.The Japanese Saving Rate[J].American Economic Review.2006.96:1850-1858.
[49]Chen.K..A.lmrohoroglu.and S. Imrohoroglu.The Japanese Saving Rate between 1960-2000:Productivity.Policy Changes.and Demographics[J].Economic Theory.2007.32:87-104.
[50]Modigliani.Franco and Shi Larry Cao.The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis[J].Journal of Economic Literature.2004.1:145-170.
[51]Bojne.Stefan.Economic efficiency.ecergy consumption and sustainable development[J].Journal of Business economics and Management.2011.12:353-374.
[52]Jin.Ye.Li.Hongbin and Wu.Binzhen.Income inequalily.consumption.and social-status seeking[J].Journal of Comparative Economics.2011.39:191-204.