道路交通事故中非主观因素分析及建模
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摘要
安全和畅通是道路交通的永恒主题。本文分析了目前交通事故非主观因素特别是道路线形条件在交通事故形成中作用，采用负二项式回归法和曲线拟合回归法对交通事故参数进行了计算、分析，利用直接分析法寻找、建立交通事故与道路线形条件的关系。本文还建立了道路交通安全评价模型并利用该模型对具体道路进行了分析，提出交通事故预防对策。
本文在分析交通事故危害性及我国道路交通安全状况的基础上，阐明了交通事故非主观因素特别是道路线形条件对交通事故的发生起着重要作用。介绍了国内外关于交通事故分析相关的研究方法，分析了目前常用的直接分析法和间接分析法中的几种方法，并指出了各种方法的优缺点，提出采用负二项式回归法对交通事故参数进行计算、分析。
然后本文分析研究了道路平面线形中直线长度、曲线半径与事故的关系，以及纵面线形要素坡度、坡长、竖曲线半径与事故的关系，着重对平面线形组合与事故率间的关系进行了分析，给出了适合我国道路条件的道路连续性评价方法。
最后本文建立了用事故率系数来评价道路线形安全水平和确定事故率多发地点的模型，另外，用京石和京秦高速公路上的事故实际情况对本模型进行检验，证明该模型确定的事故率系数与实际事故率一致，说明本模型能反映出道路线形条件与安全水平间的关系。本文还结合多年交通安全工作实践，提出了道路交通事故预防对策。
Safety and smooth are the eternal themes in the road traffic. This thesis analyses the effects of non-subjective factors, especially the road linetypes to traffic accidents, then calculates, analyzes the traffic accident parameter applying the negative binomial regression method and curve fitting method. This paper studies and finds the relations between traffic accidents and road linetype by utilizing the direct analytic method. An evaluation model to the road traffic safety is also constructed to analyze the road conditions and the advice to prevent traffic accidents are proposedin the thesis.
After the traffic accident harmfulness and road traffic safety conditions in our country are analyzed, it is expounded in the paper that non-subjective factors especially road linetypes for traffic accident play an important role to form traffic accidents.
The thesis has introduced the research approaches correlated with traffic accident analysis both at China and abroad and analyzed several kinds of methods in direct analytic approach and indirect analytic approach at present. The paper also points out the advantages and disadvantages of these methods. The negative binomial regression method is applied to analyze the traffic accident parameters.
Then this paper analyzes the relations between length of straight line, radius of curve and traffic accident. At the same time, the paper also analyzes the relations between slope angle, slope length, vertical curve radius and traffic accident. Focusing on analyzing the relation between the combination of linetype and traffic rate, the paper proposes an evaluation model for road linetype continuity, which is suitable for road conditions in China.
Finally, This paper sets up a model to evaluate safety level
of road linetype and to confirm the position of more traffic accidents is constructed. In addition, the model is verified with the real traffic accident data on Beijing-Shijiazhuang and Beijing-Qinghuangdao expressway and it’s indicated that the model matches with real traffic accident rate very well. It can be proved that the model reflects the relation between the road linetype and road safety level.Some advices are suggested to prevent traffic accident by the author.
本文在分析交通事故危害性及我国道路交通安全状况的基础上，阐明了交通事故非主观因素特别是道路线形条件对交通事故的发生起着重要作用。介绍了国内外关于交通事故分析相关的研究方法，分析了目前常用的直接分析法和间接分析法中的几种方法，并指出了各种方法的优缺点，提出采用负二项式回归法对交通事故参数进行计算、分析。
然后本文分析研究了道路平面线形中直线长度、曲线半径与事故的关系，以及纵面线形要素坡度、坡长、竖曲线半径与事故的关系，着重对平面线形组合与事故率间的关系进行了分析，给出了适合我国道路条件的道路连续性评价方法。
最后本文建立了用事故率系数来评价道路线形安全水平和确定事故率多发地点的模型，另外，用京石和京秦高速公路上的事故实际情况对本模型进行检验，证明该模型确定的事故率系数与实际事故率一致，说明本模型能反映出道路线形条件与安全水平间的关系。本文还结合多年交通安全工作实践，提出了道路交通事故预防对策。
Safety and smooth are the eternal themes in the road traffic. This thesis analyses the effects of non-subjective factors, especially the road linetypes to traffic accidents, then calculates, analyzes the traffic accident parameter applying the negative binomial regression method and curve fitting method. This paper studies and finds the relations between traffic accidents and road linetype by utilizing the direct analytic method. An evaluation model to the road traffic safety is also constructed to analyze the road conditions and the advice to prevent traffic accidents are proposedin the thesis.
After the traffic accident harmfulness and road traffic safety conditions in our country are analyzed, it is expounded in the paper that non-subjective factors especially road linetypes for traffic accident play an important role to form traffic accidents.
The thesis has introduced the research approaches correlated with traffic accident analysis both at China and abroad and analyzed several kinds of methods in direct analytic approach and indirect analytic approach at present. The paper also points out the advantages and disadvantages of these methods. The negative binomial regression method is applied to analyze the traffic accident parameters.
Then this paper analyzes the relations between length of straight line, radius of curve and traffic accident. At the same time, the paper also analyzes the relations between slope angle, slope length, vertical curve radius and traffic accident. Focusing on analyzing the relation between the combination of linetype and traffic rate, the paper proposes an evaluation model for road linetype continuity, which is suitable for road conditions in China.
Finally, This paper sets up a model to evaluate safety level
of road linetype and to confirm the position of more traffic accidents is constructed. In addition, the model is verified with the real traffic accident data on Beijing-Shijiazhuang and Beijing-Qinghuangdao expressway and it’s indicated that the model matches with real traffic accident rate very well. It can be proved that the model reflects the relation between the road linetype and road safety level.Some advices are suggested to prevent traffic accident by the author.
引文
[1] 武长顺，罗泽涛，中国城市交通问题研究，中国科学技术出版社，2000
[2] 段里仁,城市交通概论,北京:北京出版社, 1984
[3] 刘建军，交通工程学基础，北京：人民交通出版社，1994
[4] 徐吉谦，交通工程总论，北京：人民交通出版社，1991
[5] 国务院发展研究中心，中国交通安全问题及对策，北京，2000
[6] 中华人民共和国交通部标准；公路工程技术标准JTJ01-97.人民交通出版社.1997
[7] 中华人民共和国交通部标准；公路线形设计规范JTJ010-94.人民交通出版社.1994
[8] 公安部；全国道路交通事故统计资料汇编.1999
[9] Bφ·巴布可夫著，景天然译；道路条件与交通安全.上海：同济大学出版社，1990.
[10] 何景华主编；公路勘测设计.人民交通出版社.1995.
[11] 刘浩学，陈克鹏著；汽车运行安全心理学.北京：人民交通出版社，1998.
[12] 王澍权者；道路交通事故分析与处理办法.人民交通出版社，1998.
[13] Jsmrd O.Berger著；贾乃光译.统计决策论及贝叶斯分析.北京：中国统计出版社， 1998.
[14] Douglas M.Bates D，Donald G.Was著，韦博承等译；非线性回归分析及其应用.中国统计出版社，1997.
[15] 方开泰；实用多元统计分析.华师大出版社.1989
[16] 张尧庭，方开泰；多元统计分析引论.科学出版社.1982
[17] 袁淑君，孟庆茂编；数据统计分析一SPSS／PC十原理及其应用.北京师范大学出版. 1995
[18] 卢纹岱，朱一力等著；SPSS for Windows从入门到精通.电子工业出版社.1997
[19] 刘开生；公路平面线形的连续性及评定方法.中国公路学报，1992，Vol.19（l），p30-33.多元统计数据分析一理论、方法、实践.北京：国防工业大 学出版社，1997.
[20] 景天然；交通事故与公路条件的关系.同济大学学报，1991，Vol.19（3），p287-294.
[21] 田鲁泉；道路交通事故与路况关系研究.西安公路交通大学学报，1998，Vol.18（4），p11-16.
[22] 朱照宏，景天然；按公路线形确定行车速度和燃油消耗.同济大学学报1989，Vol.17（4），p427-435
[23] 傅锐；减少交通事故的安全策略探讨.中国公路学报，1995，Vol.17（4），p90-95
[24] 郭晓汾，马太民，龚延成；道路交通事故多发地点的综合研究.汽车运输研究，1996,Vol.5（4），p78-86
[25] 段里仁；论道路交通安全.联合国交通安全国际会议，1993
[26] 吴龙泗；近期我国道路交通事故分析.汽车运输研究，1997，Vol.16（2），p82-86
[27] 汤儒彦；道路交通事故成因与工程改善对策之探讨.台湾公路工程，1998，
Vol.24（9），p22-26
[28] 俞传宣；山岭区高速公路的线形设计.中国公路勘察设计，1998.6p284-291
[29] 尹红亮，王炜等；道路交通事故成因的新思考.公路交通科技，2000，Vol.17（4），p60-63
[30] 王学文；交通事故统计分析系统的研究和应用.公路交通科技，1990，Vol.7（1），p62-67
[31] 刘小明，仁福田，王根城，段里仁；城市交通事故生成规律研究.中国公路学报，1995，Vol.8（1），p110-114
[32] 赵恩棠；国外公路交通安全.公路交通科技，1999，Vol.16（1），p54-56
[33] 庞建勋；道路条件与交通安全的研究.北京工业大学硕士学位论文.1997
[34] 罗石贵，周伟；道路交通事故多发地点鉴定方法探讨.西安公路交通大学学报，1999，Vol.19 （1）， ρ30-33·
[35] 刘运通；论道路交通安全的宏观评价.中国公路学报.1995，Vol.8（1），p158-162
[36] Guoxin Liu. A study of traffic safety and vehicle travel speed in Saskatchewan. Faculty of engineering, University of Regina. February, 1996
[37] G. Gibreed, S. M. Easa. State of the highway geometric design consistency. Journal of transportat1on engineering 1999, Vol.(7),p305-301 .
[38] Y. Hassan and S. M. Easa. Modeling of Required Preview Sight Distance. Journal of Transportation Engineering 2000
[39] Y. Hassan and G. Gibreel. Evaluation of Highway Consistency And Safety: Practical Application. Journal of Transportation Engineering 2000
[40] Y. Hassan and S. M. Easa. Design Considerations of Sight Distance Red Zones on Crest Curves. Journal of Transportation Engineering 1998
[41] Shaw-Pin Miaou,Harry Lum. Modeling vehicle accidents and highway geometric design relationships. L993, Accid. Anal. and Prev. Vol.25(6). P689-709
[42] Lasse Fridstrom, Jan IRe1 Siv Ingebhtsen, Risto Kulmala, Lars Krogsgard Thomsen. Measuring the contribution of randomness, exposure, weathe1 and daylight to the variation in road accident counts. 1999, Accid. Anal. and Prev. Vol.2(1). P1-20
[43] Mohamed A. Abdei-Aty Modeling Traffic Accident Occurrence and Involvement. 2000. Accid. Anal. and Prev. Vol(32).P633-642
[44] Alan Nicholson. Super-elevation, Side friction and roadway consistency. Journa1 of transportation engineering 1998, Vol (l1),p411-418.
[45] John N.Ivan, Ra$ubhushan K. Pasupathg Paul J.Ossenbruggen. Differences in causa1ity factors for single and multi-vehicle crashes on two-lane roads. 1999. Accid. Anal. and Prev. Vol(31). P695-704
[46] Lamm.R, Guenther.A.K Safety module for highway geometry design. Transportation Research Board 1995.
[47] Ruediger.lamm. DHving d;,namic considerations: Comparison of German and American friction coef1cient for hi$way design. Transportation research record 1982.
[48] Shaw.Pin Miaou. The relationship between truck accidents and geometric design of road section Poisson versus negative binomial regressions. 1999,Accid. Anal. and Prev. Vol.26(4). P471-481
[2] 段里仁,城市交通概论,北京:北京出版社, 1984
[3] 刘建军，交通工程学基础，北京：人民交通出版社，1994
[4] 徐吉谦，交通工程总论，北京：人民交通出版社，1991
[5] 国务院发展研究中心，中国交通安全问题及对策，北京，2000
[6] 中华人民共和国交通部标准；公路工程技术标准JTJ01-97.人民交通出版社.1997
[7] 中华人民共和国交通部标准；公路线形设计规范JTJ010-94.人民交通出版社.1994
[8] 公安部；全国道路交通事故统计资料汇编.1999
[9] Bφ·巴布可夫著，景天然译；道路条件与交通安全.上海：同济大学出版社，1990.
[10] 何景华主编；公路勘测设计.人民交通出版社.1995.
[11] 刘浩学，陈克鹏著；汽车运行安全心理学.北京：人民交通出版社，1998.
[12] 王澍权者；道路交通事故分析与处理办法.人民交通出版社，1998.
[13] Jsmrd O.Berger著；贾乃光译.统计决策论及贝叶斯分析.北京：中国统计出版社， 1998.
[14] Douglas M.Bates D，Donald G.Was著，韦博承等译；非线性回归分析及其应用.中国统计出版社，1997.
[15] 方开泰；实用多元统计分析.华师大出版社.1989
[16] 张尧庭，方开泰；多元统计分析引论.科学出版社.1982
[17] 袁淑君，孟庆茂编；数据统计分析一SPSS／PC十原理及其应用.北京师范大学出版. 1995
[18] 卢纹岱，朱一力等著；SPSS for Windows从入门到精通.电子工业出版社.1997
[19] 刘开生；公路平面线形的连续性及评定方法.中国公路学报，1992，Vol.19（l），p30-33.多元统计数据分析一理论、方法、实践.北京：国防工业大 学出版社，1997.
[20] 景天然；交通事故与公路条件的关系.同济大学学报，1991，Vol.19（3），p287-294.
[21] 田鲁泉；道路交通事故与路况关系研究.西安公路交通大学学报，1998，Vol.18（4），p11-16.
[22] 朱照宏，景天然；按公路线形确定行车速度和燃油消耗.同济大学学报1989，Vol.17（4），p427-435
[23] 傅锐；减少交通事故的安全策略探讨.中国公路学报，1995，Vol.17（4），p90-95
[24] 郭晓汾，马太民，龚延成；道路交通事故多发地点的综合研究.汽车运输研究，1996,Vol.5（4），p78-86
[25] 段里仁；论道路交通安全.联合国交通安全国际会议，1993
[26] 吴龙泗；近期我国道路交通事故分析.汽车运输研究，1997，Vol.16（2），p82-86
[27] 汤儒彦；道路交通事故成因与工程改善对策之探讨.台湾公路工程，1998，
Vol.24（9），p22-26
[28] 俞传宣；山岭区高速公路的线形设计.中国公路勘察设计，1998.6p284-291
[29] 尹红亮，王炜等；道路交通事故成因的新思考.公路交通科技，2000，Vol.17（4），p60-63
[30] 王学文；交通事故统计分析系统的研究和应用.公路交通科技，1990，Vol.7（1），p62-67
[31] 刘小明，仁福田，王根城，段里仁；城市交通事故生成规律研究.中国公路学报，1995，Vol.8（1），p110-114
[32] 赵恩棠；国外公路交通安全.公路交通科技，1999，Vol.16（1），p54-56
[33] 庞建勋；道路条件与交通安全的研究.北京工业大学硕士学位论文.1997
[34] 罗石贵，周伟；道路交通事故多发地点鉴定方法探讨.西安公路交通大学学报，1999，Vol.19 （1）， ρ30-33·
[35] 刘运通；论道路交通安全的宏观评价.中国公路学报.1995，Vol.8（1），p158-162
[36] Guoxin Liu. A study of traffic safety and vehicle travel speed in Saskatchewan. Faculty of engineering, University of Regina. February, 1996
[37] G. Gibreed, S. M. Easa. State of the highway geometric design consistency. Journal of transportat1on engineering 1999, Vol.(7),p305-301 .
[38] Y. Hassan and S. M. Easa. Modeling of Required Preview Sight Distance. Journal of Transportation Engineering 2000
[39] Y. Hassan and G. Gibreel. Evaluation of Highway Consistency And Safety: Practical Application. Journal of Transportation Engineering 2000
[40] Y. Hassan and S. M. Easa. Design Considerations of Sight Distance Red Zones on Crest Curves. Journal of Transportation Engineering 1998
[41] Shaw-Pin Miaou,Harry Lum. Modeling vehicle accidents and highway geometric design relationships. L993, Accid. Anal. and Prev. Vol.25(6). P689-709
[42] Lasse Fridstrom, Jan IRe1 Siv Ingebhtsen, Risto Kulmala, Lars Krogsgard Thomsen. Measuring the contribution of randomness, exposure, weathe1 and daylight to the variation in road accident counts. 1999, Accid. Anal. and Prev. Vol.2(1). P1-20
[43] Mohamed A. Abdei-Aty Modeling Traffic Accident Occurrence and Involvement. 2000. Accid. Anal. and Prev. Vol(32).P633-642
[44] Alan Nicholson. Super-elevation, Side friction and roadway consistency. Journa1 of transportation engineering 1998, Vol (l1),p411-418.
[45] John N.Ivan, Ra$ubhushan K. Pasupathg Paul J.Ossenbruggen. Differences in causa1ity factors for single and multi-vehicle crashes on two-lane roads. 1999. Accid. Anal. and Prev. Vol(31). P695-704
[46] Lamm.R, Guenther.A.K Safety module for highway geometry design. Transportation Research Board 1995.
[47] Ruediger.lamm. DHving d;,namic considerations: Comparison of German and American friction coef1cient for hi$way design. Transportation research record 1982.
[48] Shaw.Pin Miaou. The relationship between truck accidents and geometric design of road section Poisson versus negative binomial regressions. 1999,Accid. Anal. and Prev. Vol.26(4). P471-481