武汉市公共交通系统评价方法与应用研究
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摘要
武汉市是一个经济发达,人口众多的特大城市。交通很大程度上决定了城市的发展。而随着地铁等交通建设项目的修建和私家车数量的急速增长,武汉的交通拥堵严重,带来大量经济损失。鉴于武汉交通形势的严峻性,改变武汉的交通现状势不容缓。而交通问题的解决很大程度上依赖于高效运行的公共交通系统。
本文首先详细分析了武汉公共交通的现状,各种公共交通模式的优缺点。同时分析了武汉发生拥堵的原因以及拥堵原因的构成。另外提出了评价系统建立的原则、方法,设计了评价的流程；本文考量了综合评价方法,选择了层次分析法来进行评价系统的构建,确定了武汉市公共交通硬件水平,武汉市公共交通服务水平,武汉市公共交通经济效益水平,武汉市公共交通可持续发展水平作为四个评价模块。并使用评价指标设定的原则确定了30个评价指标,给出了每个指标具体的量化方法,合理数值的范围。最后使用层次分析法确定了每个指标的权重,使用灰色关联度法计算了项目优化备选排序,使用灰色评估方法进行系统综合评价,得出武汉市公共交通整体等级为D级。
本论文旨在通过建立武汉市公共交通系统为武汉市公共交通决策者提供合理建议,并且给出了每个指标的计算方式和数据分级范围,便于动态评价,最后给出的项目排序和系统综合评价也能直观科学地通过数学方法的计算来为公共交通决策者提供科学的参考。
Wuhan is a highly developed huge city. The level of the transportation system ties greatly with the development of the city. Nowadays, with the on-going projects of city metro system and rapid increase of cars on the road, a new tide of traffic jam has hit the transportation system, bring huge economic setback for the city, which makes the situation even more critical than before. Therefore, a solution is required to ease this condition immediately, and an effective way of resolve this issue is to improve its public transportation system.
First, this paper analyses the current status of Wuhan public transportation system, especially its merits and faults. Also, this paper analyses the specific reasons of traffic jams in Wuhan. In addition, it puts forward the principles of building an evaluation system and the steps of doing it. Besides, with thorough consideration of all the evaluation methods of big system, this paper chooses analytic hierarchy process (AHP——Analytic Hierarchy Process) to build the evaluation system for Wuhan public transportation system, and takes four aspects into consideration, which are level of network, level of service, level of economic status, and level of future development. Also, this paper deducts 30 indexes of the evaluation system. Furthermore, it puts forward the calculation methods for each of the indexes. In the end, this paper use grey correlation grade method to set the order of potential proposals of optimizing Wuhan public transportation system and using grey evaluation method to set the overall evaluation of Wuhan public transportation system, which comes to a conclusion that the overall rank of Wuhan public transportation system is D.
This paper intends to give proper suggestions to decision-makers of Wuhan public transportation system by building a scientific evaluation system. And the calculation methods and range of data is given for dynamic evaluation. In the end, the giving of method of placing the sequences of optimization schemes of public transportation system is given, along with an integrated evaluation will help decision-makers to get a logical perspective.
本文首先详细分析了武汉公共交通的现状,各种公共交通模式的优缺点。同时分析了武汉发生拥堵的原因以及拥堵原因的构成。另外提出了评价系统建立的原则、方法,设计了评价的流程；本文考量了综合评价方法,选择了层次分析法来进行评价系统的构建,确定了武汉市公共交通硬件水平,武汉市公共交通服务水平,武汉市公共交通经济效益水平,武汉市公共交通可持续发展水平作为四个评价模块。并使用评价指标设定的原则确定了30个评价指标,给出了每个指标具体的量化方法,合理数值的范围。最后使用层次分析法确定了每个指标的权重,使用灰色关联度法计算了项目优化备选排序,使用灰色评估方法进行系统综合评价,得出武汉市公共交通整体等级为D级。
本论文旨在通过建立武汉市公共交通系统为武汉市公共交通决策者提供合理建议,并且给出了每个指标的计算方式和数据分级范围,便于动态评价,最后给出的项目排序和系统综合评价也能直观科学地通过数学方法的计算来为公共交通决策者提供科学的参考。
Wuhan is a highly developed huge city. The level of the transportation system ties greatly with the development of the city. Nowadays, with the on-going projects of city metro system and rapid increase of cars on the road, a new tide of traffic jam has hit the transportation system, bring huge economic setback for the city, which makes the situation even more critical than before. Therefore, a solution is required to ease this condition immediately, and an effective way of resolve this issue is to improve its public transportation system.
First, this paper analyses the current status of Wuhan public transportation system, especially its merits and faults. Also, this paper analyses the specific reasons of traffic jams in Wuhan. In addition, it puts forward the principles of building an evaluation system and the steps of doing it. Besides, with thorough consideration of all the evaluation methods of big system, this paper chooses analytic hierarchy process (AHP——Analytic Hierarchy Process) to build the evaluation system for Wuhan public transportation system, and takes four aspects into consideration, which are level of network, level of service, level of economic status, and level of future development. Also, this paper deducts 30 indexes of the evaluation system. Furthermore, it puts forward the calculation methods for each of the indexes. In the end, this paper use grey correlation grade method to set the order of potential proposals of optimizing Wuhan public transportation system and using grey evaluation method to set the overall evaluation of Wuhan public transportation system, which comes to a conclusion that the overall rank of Wuhan public transportation system is D.
This paper intends to give proper suggestions to decision-makers of Wuhan public transportation system by building a scientific evaluation system. And the calculation methods and range of data is given for dynamic evaluation. In the end, the giving of method of placing the sequences of optimization schemes of public transportation system is given, along with an integrated evaluation will help decision-makers to get a logical perspective.
引文
[1]武汉交通政务网[2009-12-27]. http://www.whjt.gov.cn.
[2]武汉市年鉴.
[3]陆化普.城市交通管理评价体系[M].北京：人民交通出版社.2003.
[4]武汉交通政务网[2010-1-3]. http://www.whjt.gov.cn/2008-12/20081216111025.shtml.
[5]武汉交通管理局.武汉交通蓝皮书[S].2008.
[6]丁以中.交通运输网规划综合评价方法[J].上海海运学校学报.2005(1)：7-11.
[7]Schrank,D,T.Lomax. The 2005 Urban Mobility Report[R]. Taxas:Taxas Transportation Insitute,2005.
[8]祝付玲.城市道路交通拥挤评价指标体系研究[D].东南大学,2006
[9]许玮珑.城市干道与信号交叉口服务水平的模糊综合评价研究[D].长安大学,2006
[10]Hudson, J.G. Congestion Management System Practices[R]. Taxas:Taxas Transportation Institute,2002
[11]Transportation Research Board [M]. Washington, D.C:TRB, National Research Council, 2005
[12]沈屹楠.城市道路交通评价方法及评价系统开发[D].北京交通大学,2008.
[13]Taxas Transportation Insitute 3135 TAMU, Cambridge Systematics. Current conditions and trends from archived operations data[R]. Monitoring Urban Freeways in 2003,2004(12).
[14]胡启洲,邓卫.城市常规公共交通系统的优化模型与评价方法[M].北京：科学出版社,2009.
[15]武汉市公交规划专项文本.2006.
[16]武汉市公交规划专项文本.2006.
[17]聪慧网[2010-1-4]. http://info.news.hc360.com/html/001/002/003/002/004/37680.htm.
[18]聪慧网[2010-1-4].http://info.news.hc360.com.
[19]陈茜,陈学武.坡市常规公共交通发展水平综合评价指标体系研究[J].城市交通,2003(1)：5-12.
[20]王清印.灰色数学基础[M].武汉：华中理工大学出版社,2000.
[21]颜月霞,王花兰.基于模糊积分的都市交通系统评价[J].交通与安全,2006.03：120-122.
[22]Chi-Cheng Huang, Pin-Yu Chu, Yu-Hsiu Chiang. A fuzzy AHP application in government-sponsored R&D project selection [J]. ScienceDirect,2006.05.
[23]李作敏.交通工程学[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2000
[24J张晓.城市交通运行评价指标体系研究[J].城市公共交通.2007(7)：21-24
[25]朱顺应,王红,王毅.市区路网服务水平评价[J].重庆交通学院学报,2005(4)：12-14
[26]德国技术合作公司,可持续发展的交通[M].北京：人民交通出版社.2005
[27]GB 50220-95城市道路交通规划设计规范[S].2006.
[28]Pienanar, P.A.Public transport:Lessons to be learnt from Curitiba and Bogota.Transport Challenges for 2010,2005:362-379
[29]胡淑君.城市公共交通发展水平综合评价指标体系研究[J].交通科技,2004(5)：84-85
[30]王涛,过秀成.交通工程学[M].南京：东南大学出版社,2000.
[31]中华人民共和国建设部。城市道路交通规划设计规范GB50220-95[S].北京：中国计划出版社,1995.
[32]倪捷,刘志强.基于蚂蚁算法的公交网络优化方法研究[J].交通与计算机,2007(1)：36-39.
[33]徐以群,陈茜.城市公共交通服务水平的指标体系[J].城市交通.2006(6)：42-46.
[34]Mumgesan, R. Level of public transport service evaluation:A fuzzy set approach. Journal of Advanced Transportation, v32, n2, summer,2000:216-220.
[35]中华人民共和国原城乡建设环境保护部。城市用地分类与规划建设用地标准GBJ137-90[S].北京：中国计划出版社,1997.
[36]焦朋朋,陆化普.城市交通管理的国民经济效益评价方法研究[J].公路交通科技,2005,22(9)：123-126.
[37]Carlsson-Kanyma A, Linden A. Travel patterns and environment effects now and in the future:Implications of differences in energy consumption among socio-economics groups [J]. Ecological Economics,2000,30(3):405-417.
[38]李红镝.交通运输可持续发展及其评价指标的建立[J].交通环保,2003(4)：16-19.
[39]陈宽民.城市交通系统理论分析与应用[D].长安大学,2003
[40]胡明伟,史其信,刘洪涛.基于系统目标的智能交通系统评价方法研究[J].中南公路工程,2002(4)：121-123.
[4l]杨晓光,云美萍,周雪梅,吴志周,张扬.中国智能交通系统评价方法研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2006.06(6)：143-147.
[42]R.Murguesan. Level of Public Transport Service Evaluation:A Fuzzy Set Approach. Journal of Advanced Transportation,2001.2
[43]吕云飞.基于GIS的公路网交通系统评价技术研究[D].东南大学,2006.03.
[44]田民,刘思峰,卜志坤.灰色关联度算法模型的研究综述[J].理论新探,2008(1)：24-26.
[45]刘思峰,谢乃明.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京：科学出版社,2008
[46]Casey R F, Lahell L N. Advanced public transportation systems deployment in the United States. U.S..Department of Transportation,2002.
[47]Li S F.Grey forecast of drought and information in Henan Province[J]. Journal of Grey system,2002(4):302-312
[48][英]J.M.汤姆逊.城市布局与交通规划[M].北京：中国建筑工业出版杜,2003
[49]Li S F. On measure of grey information [J]. Journal of Grey System,2004(4):1212-1216
[50]Xu J P. On a kind of information grey number[J]. Journal of Grey System,2004(4):279-288
[2]武汉市年鉴.
[3]陆化普.城市交通管理评价体系[M].北京：人民交通出版社.2003.
[4]武汉交通政务网[2010-1-3]. http://www.whjt.gov.cn/2008-12/20081216111025.shtml.
[5]武汉交通管理局.武汉交通蓝皮书[S].2008.
[6]丁以中.交通运输网规划综合评价方法[J].上海海运学校学报.2005(1)：7-11.
[7]Schrank,D,T.Lomax. The 2005 Urban Mobility Report[R]. Taxas:Taxas Transportation Insitute,2005.
[8]祝付玲.城市道路交通拥挤评价指标体系研究[D].东南大学,2006
[9]许玮珑.城市干道与信号交叉口服务水平的模糊综合评价研究[D].长安大学,2006
[10]Hudson, J.G. Congestion Management System Practices[R]. Taxas:Taxas Transportation Institute,2002
[11]Transportation Research Board [M]. Washington, D.C:TRB, National Research Council, 2005
[12]沈屹楠.城市道路交通评价方法及评价系统开发[D].北京交通大学,2008.
[13]Taxas Transportation Insitute 3135 TAMU, Cambridge Systematics. Current conditions and trends from archived operations data[R]. Monitoring Urban Freeways in 2003,2004(12).
[14]胡启洲,邓卫.城市常规公共交通系统的优化模型与评价方法[M].北京：科学出版社,2009.
[15]武汉市公交规划专项文本.2006.
[16]武汉市公交规划专项文本.2006.
[17]聪慧网[2010-1-4]. http://info.news.hc360.com/html/001/002/003/002/004/37680.htm.
[18]聪慧网[2010-1-4].http://info.news.hc360.com.
[19]陈茜,陈学武.坡市常规公共交通发展水平综合评价指标体系研究[J].城市交通,2003(1)：5-12.
[20]王清印.灰色数学基础[M].武汉：华中理工大学出版社,2000.
[21]颜月霞,王花兰.基于模糊积分的都市交通系统评价[J].交通与安全,2006.03：120-122.
[22]Chi-Cheng Huang, Pin-Yu Chu, Yu-Hsiu Chiang. A fuzzy AHP application in government-sponsored R&D project selection [J]. ScienceDirect,2006.05.
[23]李作敏.交通工程学[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2000
[24J张晓.城市交通运行评价指标体系研究[J].城市公共交通.2007(7)：21-24
[25]朱顺应,王红,王毅.市区路网服务水平评价[J].重庆交通学院学报,2005(4)：12-14
[26]德国技术合作公司,可持续发展的交通[M].北京：人民交通出版社.2005
[27]GB 50220-95城市道路交通规划设计规范[S].2006.
[28]Pienanar, P.A.Public transport:Lessons to be learnt from Curitiba and Bogota.Transport Challenges for 2010,2005:362-379
[29]胡淑君.城市公共交通发展水平综合评价指标体系研究[J].交通科技,2004(5)：84-85
[30]王涛,过秀成.交通工程学[M].南京：东南大学出版社,2000.
[31]中华人民共和国建设部。城市道路交通规划设计规范GB50220-95[S].北京：中国计划出版社,1995.
[32]倪捷,刘志强.基于蚂蚁算法的公交网络优化方法研究[J].交通与计算机,2007(1)：36-39.
[33]徐以群,陈茜.城市公共交通服务水平的指标体系[J].城市交通.2006(6)：42-46.
[34]Mumgesan, R. Level of public transport service evaluation:A fuzzy set approach. Journal of Advanced Transportation, v32, n2, summer,2000:216-220.
[35]中华人民共和国原城乡建设环境保护部。城市用地分类与规划建设用地标准GBJ137-90[S].北京：中国计划出版社,1997.
[36]焦朋朋,陆化普.城市交通管理的国民经济效益评价方法研究[J].公路交通科技,2005,22(9)：123-126.
[37]Carlsson-Kanyma A, Linden A. Travel patterns and environment effects now and in the future:Implications of differences in energy consumption among socio-economics groups [J]. Ecological Economics,2000,30(3):405-417.
[38]李红镝.交通运输可持续发展及其评价指标的建立[J].交通环保,2003(4)：16-19.
[39]陈宽民.城市交通系统理论分析与应用[D].长安大学,2003
[40]胡明伟,史其信,刘洪涛.基于系统目标的智能交通系统评价方法研究[J].中南公路工程,2002(4)：121-123.
[4l]杨晓光,云美萍,周雪梅,吴志周,张扬.中国智能交通系统评价方法研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2006.06(6)：143-147.
[42]R.Murguesan. Level of Public Transport Service Evaluation:A Fuzzy Set Approach. Journal of Advanced Transportation,2001.2
[43]吕云飞.基于GIS的公路网交通系统评价技术研究[D].东南大学,2006.03.
[44]田民,刘思峰,卜志坤.灰色关联度算法模型的研究综述[J].理论新探,2008(1)：24-26.
[45]刘思峰,谢乃明.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京：科学出版社,2008
[46]Casey R F, Lahell L N. Advanced public transportation systems deployment in the United States. U.S..Department of Transportation,2002.
[47]Li S F.Grey forecast of drought and information in Henan Province[J]. Journal of Grey system,2002(4):302-312
[48][英]J.M.汤姆逊.城市布局与交通规划[M].北京：中国建筑工业出版杜,2003
[49]Li S F. On measure of grey information [J]. Journal of Grey System,2004(4):1212-1216
[50]Xu J P. On a kind of information grey number[J]. Journal of Grey System,2004(4):279-288