京津冀城市群产业优化与城市进化协调发展研究
|
摘要
经济社会大转型是新世纪中国最突出的国情。制度、经济、社会等方面都将发生显著变革，特别是以近距离、高密度及浅分割为变量的空间重构也是这一变革的重要方面。区域经济加速一体化、生产要素快速集聚与生产专业化分工日益精细所导致的新型地域体日渐形成并不断发展，主次分明、分工明确、协同演进的以若干大城市为核心的城市群日益成为我国区域经济发展的主要形式。京津冀区域社会经济已进入全面快速发展阶段，通过加快城市发展和重构城市空间体系推进城市化进程、通过促进产业结构升级来提升区域竞争力和引导地区协调发展是我国新时期区域发展的重要特征和客观要求。
国内外典型城市群的发展轨迹已经证明，任何城市群的发展都有其内在规律，这种规律在产业层面上与产业发展的演进轨迹相切合。在发展的某个时期或者某几个时期，由于产业发展的力量推动，可能获得较快的发展，但一个发展快速的城市不会无限期维持其高速增长势头，它必定会减慢其速度，时快时慢，周而复始，最终被新的增长点所取代。在这一过程中，城市逐渐进化，向着功能完善的高端化发展，产业逐渐优化，两者在互动协调中带动整个城市群的发展，即：依靠产业优化与城市进化“双轮驱动”，以此促进城市群经济的可持续协调发展。深入研究城市进化与产业结构演变相互作用对我国加快空间发展，特别是京津冀城市群的协调发展具有重要的理论价值和实际意义。
本文研究设计总体上按照规范分析、实证研究两个层次展开，二者相互印证，形成逻辑统一、结构完整的有机组合。本文的主要创新性工作如下：
构建城市群下产业优化与城市进化理论框架。通过梳理国内外研究文献发现，目前鲜有“城市进化”的研究，也未发现城市群中城市进化与产业优化的研究。本文基于前人的研究成果，对产业优化、城市进化的概念进行初步界定，在此基础上，构建城市群产业优化与城市进化的理论模型，即：在城市群空间内，产业优化是城市进化的动力源泉，城市进化是产业优化的支撑保证。并剖析了其作用机制，包括专业化分工与外部经济性、规模经济和范围经济、工业化和城市化进程、经济全球化与区域经济一体化进程、制度安排和政府政策等。
采用经济联系强度与城市流两大模型界定京津冀城市群的空间范围。在对城市群空间联系的研究中，对于京津冀城市群的研究并不多见。本文综合采用经济联系强度与城市流两大模型，分别从区域和产业两大维度，对京津冀城市群空间联系进行实证研究，同时以国内外著名学者对城市群的界定为准绳，定量界定京津冀城市群的空间范围为“2+8”：即北京、天津、唐山、秦皇岛、承德、张家口、保定、廊坊、石家庄、沧州。
采用空间交互效应模型对京津冀城市群产业优化与城市进化进行实证研究。当前研究对于空间交互效应的研究还很罕见。采用基于空间交互效应的空间面板数据模型的影响机制，并对京津冀城市群产业优化和城市进化进行了深入系统研究。结果表明：在京津冀城市群长期经济增长中，除人力资本、城市进化对具有较强的负向影响外，其余变量均具有正向促进作用，其中物质资本、非国有经济发展因素的影响最为突出，其次为产业优化，再次为FDI、R&D。人力资本和城市进化的促进作用未得到充分发挥。产业优化与城市进化在京津冀城市群的经济增长中具有完全不同的作用，发展水平很不协调。
采用Arc GIS方法对京津冀城市群进行空间重塑。分别对产业优化与城市进化进行ArcGIS分析，并将京津冀城市群的空间定位为“多增长极多发展轴的圈层产业”结构。并以此对京津冀城市群的城市空间重塑为：综合运输网络——“三中心网络式”；时空距离——“一小时都市圈”；城镇布局——功能差异的城镇群。产业空间重构为：多增长极、主辅发展轴、圈层产业分布等。
The transformation of the economy and the society is the most prominently nationalcondition in the new century in China. The systems，economy, society and other aspectswill happen the significant changes. Particularly, the space reconstruction will be theimportant change based on the variables of the distance, density and segmentation. The newless-regional body, which is caused by the integration of the regional economy, the rapidagglomeration of the production factors, and the greater refinement of the specializationdivision of labor in the production, is emerging and continues to develop. The urbanagglomerations focused on several large cities, which make a distinction between theimportant and the lesser one, and clearly divide the labor and co-evolve, is increasinglybecoming the main form in the development of the regional economy in China. TheBeijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration has already entered the rapid developmentstage. It is the important features and objective requirements of the regional development inthe new era in China to promote the process of urbanization by accelerating the urbandevelopment and reconstructing the urban space system, and to enhance thecompetitiveness of the region and guide the coordinative development of the region bypromoting the development of the industrial structure.
The development trajectory of the typical urban agglomeration at home and abroad hasalso been proved that any development of the region has its inherent laws, and these laws atthe industry level meet the evolution of the industrial development. In a certaindevelopment period or several development periods, the region may develop fast because ofthe promotion of the industry. But a fast-growing city will not indefinitely maintain itsmomentum of the rapid development. It will slow down the speed, and be faster or slower,again and again, and ultimately replaced by a new growth. In this process, the citygradually evolves and develops to a full-featured high end, and the industry is graduallyoptimized. In the interactive coordination, both of them lead the development of the wholeregion, namely, the urban agglomeration economy relies on the "two-wheeled drive " fromthe industrial optimization and the urban evolution to promote the sustainable andcoordinated development. It will play a significant role in the theory and reality to in-depthresearch the interaction between the city evolution of the Urban Agglomeration and theevolution of the industrial structure in China for accelerating the space development,especially for the coordinative development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei UrbanAgglomeration.
The research of this paper is designed from two points. They are the normativeanalysis and the empirical research, which are confirmed by each other, and form anorganic whole with the identical logic and the strict structure. The main innovative work as follows:
The theoretical framework of the industrial optimization and the urban evolutionin urban agglomerations is formed. Through looking over the literatures of both insideand outside China, the research on the industrial optimization and the urban evolution inurban agglomerations has not been found in the rare research about the urban evolution.Based on the results of previous studies, this paper defines the concept of the industrialoptimization and the urban evolution, and sets up the theory model of the industryoptimization and the urban evolution in urban agglomerations, that is: in the space of urbanagglomerations, the industrial optimization is the power source of urban evolution and theurban evolution is the supportive guarantee of the industrial optimization. Furthermore, thispaper analyses its functional mechanism, including the specialization division of labor andthe external economy, the economy of scale and the economy of scope, the process of theindustrialization and the urbanization, the process of the economic globalization and theregional economic integration, the system arrangements and government policies and etc..
The spatial extent of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration is defined byusing the Economic Relation Intensity Model and Urban Stream Model. The researchon Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration is rare in the literature about the spatialrelation. This paper conducts the empirical research about the space relationship ofBeijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration by using the Economic Relation IntensityModel and Urban Stream Model from the dimension of the region and the industry. Thispaper takes the definition of famous scholars on urban agglomerations as the criterion,defines the space range of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration as “2+8”, that isBeijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, Qinhuangdao, Chengde, Zhangjiakou, Baoding, Langfang,Shijiazhuang and Cangzhou.
The empirical research on the industry optimization and the urban evolution ofBeijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration is carried out by using the SpatialInteraction Models. The current study about space interaction is very rare. In this paper,the industry optimization and the urban evolution are studied deeply based on theSpace-sectional Data Model about Space interaction. The result shows that in thedevelopment of the economy in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, except of HRand the urban evolution which have strong negative effects, others all promote thedevelopment. Of these, the physical capital and economic factors of non-stated-owned areprominent, next comes the industry optimization and then FDI and R&D. The stimulationeffect of HR and the urban evolution does not fully realize. In the development of theeconomy in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, the industry optimization and theurban evolution play different roles, but do not develop harmoniously.
The space of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration is reshaped by usingArc GIS. This paper analyses the industry optimization and the urban evolution by using Arc GIS, and defines the space structure of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration asthe structure of the circle industry with the multi-pole of the growth and the multi-axis ofthe development. And then the space of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration isreshaped in this paper as following: The comprehensive transport network-a Network withThree Hubs, the space distance-One Hour Metropolitan Region, and the town layout-theTown Complex with Different Functions. The space of the industry is reshaped to themulti-pole of growth, the primary and the secondary axis of development, the industry withcircle layout and etc..
国内外典型城市群的发展轨迹已经证明，任何城市群的发展都有其内在规律，这种规律在产业层面上与产业发展的演进轨迹相切合。在发展的某个时期或者某几个时期，由于产业发展的力量推动，可能获得较快的发展，但一个发展快速的城市不会无限期维持其高速增长势头，它必定会减慢其速度，时快时慢，周而复始，最终被新的增长点所取代。在这一过程中，城市逐渐进化，向着功能完善的高端化发展，产业逐渐优化，两者在互动协调中带动整个城市群的发展，即：依靠产业优化与城市进化“双轮驱动”，以此促进城市群经济的可持续协调发展。深入研究城市进化与产业结构演变相互作用对我国加快空间发展，特别是京津冀城市群的协调发展具有重要的理论价值和实际意义。
本文研究设计总体上按照规范分析、实证研究两个层次展开，二者相互印证，形成逻辑统一、结构完整的有机组合。本文的主要创新性工作如下：
构建城市群下产业优化与城市进化理论框架。通过梳理国内外研究文献发现，目前鲜有“城市进化”的研究，也未发现城市群中城市进化与产业优化的研究。本文基于前人的研究成果，对产业优化、城市进化的概念进行初步界定，在此基础上，构建城市群产业优化与城市进化的理论模型，即：在城市群空间内，产业优化是城市进化的动力源泉，城市进化是产业优化的支撑保证。并剖析了其作用机制，包括专业化分工与外部经济性、规模经济和范围经济、工业化和城市化进程、经济全球化与区域经济一体化进程、制度安排和政府政策等。
采用经济联系强度与城市流两大模型界定京津冀城市群的空间范围。在对城市群空间联系的研究中，对于京津冀城市群的研究并不多见。本文综合采用经济联系强度与城市流两大模型，分别从区域和产业两大维度，对京津冀城市群空间联系进行实证研究，同时以国内外著名学者对城市群的界定为准绳，定量界定京津冀城市群的空间范围为“2+8”：即北京、天津、唐山、秦皇岛、承德、张家口、保定、廊坊、石家庄、沧州。
采用空间交互效应模型对京津冀城市群产业优化与城市进化进行实证研究。当前研究对于空间交互效应的研究还很罕见。采用基于空间交互效应的空间面板数据模型的影响机制，并对京津冀城市群产业优化和城市进化进行了深入系统研究。结果表明：在京津冀城市群长期经济增长中，除人力资本、城市进化对具有较强的负向影响外，其余变量均具有正向促进作用，其中物质资本、非国有经济发展因素的影响最为突出，其次为产业优化，再次为FDI、R&D。人力资本和城市进化的促进作用未得到充分发挥。产业优化与城市进化在京津冀城市群的经济增长中具有完全不同的作用，发展水平很不协调。
采用Arc GIS方法对京津冀城市群进行空间重塑。分别对产业优化与城市进化进行ArcGIS分析，并将京津冀城市群的空间定位为“多增长极多发展轴的圈层产业”结构。并以此对京津冀城市群的城市空间重塑为：综合运输网络——“三中心网络式”；时空距离——“一小时都市圈”；城镇布局——功能差异的城镇群。产业空间重构为：多增长极、主辅发展轴、圈层产业分布等。
The transformation of the economy and the society is the most prominently nationalcondition in the new century in China. The systems，economy, society and other aspectswill happen the significant changes. Particularly, the space reconstruction will be theimportant change based on the variables of the distance, density and segmentation. The newless-regional body, which is caused by the integration of the regional economy, the rapidagglomeration of the production factors, and the greater refinement of the specializationdivision of labor in the production, is emerging and continues to develop. The urbanagglomerations focused on several large cities, which make a distinction between theimportant and the lesser one, and clearly divide the labor and co-evolve, is increasinglybecoming the main form in the development of the regional economy in China. TheBeijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration has already entered the rapid developmentstage. It is the important features and objective requirements of the regional development inthe new era in China to promote the process of urbanization by accelerating the urbandevelopment and reconstructing the urban space system, and to enhance thecompetitiveness of the region and guide the coordinative development of the region bypromoting the development of the industrial structure.
The development trajectory of the typical urban agglomeration at home and abroad hasalso been proved that any development of the region has its inherent laws, and these laws atthe industry level meet the evolution of the industrial development. In a certaindevelopment period or several development periods, the region may develop fast because ofthe promotion of the industry. But a fast-growing city will not indefinitely maintain itsmomentum of the rapid development. It will slow down the speed, and be faster or slower,again and again, and ultimately replaced by a new growth. In this process, the citygradually evolves and develops to a full-featured high end, and the industry is graduallyoptimized. In the interactive coordination, both of them lead the development of the wholeregion, namely, the urban agglomeration economy relies on the "two-wheeled drive " fromthe industrial optimization and the urban evolution to promote the sustainable andcoordinated development. It will play a significant role in the theory and reality to in-depthresearch the interaction between the city evolution of the Urban Agglomeration and theevolution of the industrial structure in China for accelerating the space development,especially for the coordinative development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei UrbanAgglomeration.
The research of this paper is designed from two points. They are the normativeanalysis and the empirical research, which are confirmed by each other, and form anorganic whole with the identical logic and the strict structure. The main innovative work as follows:
The theoretical framework of the industrial optimization and the urban evolutionin urban agglomerations is formed. Through looking over the literatures of both insideand outside China, the research on the industrial optimization and the urban evolution inurban agglomerations has not been found in the rare research about the urban evolution.Based on the results of previous studies, this paper defines the concept of the industrialoptimization and the urban evolution, and sets up the theory model of the industryoptimization and the urban evolution in urban agglomerations, that is: in the space of urbanagglomerations, the industrial optimization is the power source of urban evolution and theurban evolution is the supportive guarantee of the industrial optimization. Furthermore, thispaper analyses its functional mechanism, including the specialization division of labor andthe external economy, the economy of scale and the economy of scope, the process of theindustrialization and the urbanization, the process of the economic globalization and theregional economic integration, the system arrangements and government policies and etc..
The spatial extent of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration is defined byusing the Economic Relation Intensity Model and Urban Stream Model. The researchon Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration is rare in the literature about the spatialrelation. This paper conducts the empirical research about the space relationship ofBeijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration by using the Economic Relation IntensityModel and Urban Stream Model from the dimension of the region and the industry. Thispaper takes the definition of famous scholars on urban agglomerations as the criterion,defines the space range of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration as “2+8”, that isBeijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, Qinhuangdao, Chengde, Zhangjiakou, Baoding, Langfang,Shijiazhuang and Cangzhou.
The empirical research on the industry optimization and the urban evolution ofBeijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration is carried out by using the SpatialInteraction Models. The current study about space interaction is very rare. In this paper,the industry optimization and the urban evolution are studied deeply based on theSpace-sectional Data Model about Space interaction. The result shows that in thedevelopment of the economy in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, except of HRand the urban evolution which have strong negative effects, others all promote thedevelopment. Of these, the physical capital and economic factors of non-stated-owned areprominent, next comes the industry optimization and then FDI and R&D. The stimulationeffect of HR and the urban evolution does not fully realize. In the development of theeconomy in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, the industry optimization and theurban evolution play different roles, but do not develop harmoniously.
The space of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration is reshaped by usingArc GIS. This paper analyses the industry optimization and the urban evolution by using Arc GIS, and defines the space structure of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration asthe structure of the circle industry with the multi-pole of the growth and the multi-axis ofthe development. And then the space of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration isreshaped in this paper as following: The comprehensive transport network-a Network withThree Hubs, the space distance-One Hour Metropolitan Region, and the town layout-theTown Complex with Different Functions. The space of the industry is reshaped to themulti-pole of growth, the primary and the secondary axis of development, the industry withcircle layout and etc..
引文
1注：本文采用2010年国家发布《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要》中城市群的英文翻译“Urban Agglomeration”。事实上，“城市群”概念是中国的特色名词，在国外没有对等的概念。在英文文献中，关于“Urban Agglomeration”是“城市集聚体”的意思，即：一个大城市及其周围的卫星城镇在遥感图片上形成相互连接的不规则体,其空间范围介于“城市化地区（UA）”和“都市区（MA）”之间。有时候，几个连体的大都市也叫做Urban Agglomeration。联合国对urban agglomeration的定义如下：“Comprises a city or town proper andalso the suburban fringe or thickly settled territory lying outside, but adjacent to, its boundaries. A single large urbanagglomeration may comprise several cities or towns and their suburban fringes.（由一个城市或城镇的中心城区与郊区边缘地带或毗邻的外部地区组成。一个大的城市群可能包括几个城市或城镇郊区及其边缘地区）”。因此，西方的urban agglomeration涵盖了城市、城镇及其外围地区的城市区域概念，而我国目前的“城市群”概念主要指一群地域相近、又有一定的行政、交通、经济、社会等联系的城市组群（顾朝林，2010）。
1Ertur, C., Koch, W. Growth, Technological Interdependence and Spatial Externalities: Theory and Evidence [J].Journal of Applied Econometrics,2007,22（6）:1033–1062.
2Elhorst, J.P. Dynamic Spatial Panels: Models, Methods, and Inferences [J]. Journal of Geographical Systems,2012,14（1）:21-25.
3Ertur, C., Koch, W. Growth, Technological Interdependence and Spatial Externalities: Theory and Evidence [J].Journal of Applied Econometrics,2007,22（6）:1033–1062.
4Elhorst, J.P. Dynamic Spatial Panels: Models, Methods, and Inferences [J]. Journal of Geographical Systems,2012,14（1）:21-25.
1按照《环渤海京津冀地区城际轨道交通网规划（2005-2020）》，到2010年“建成北京—天津—塘沽城际轨道交通线，构建京津冀地区城际轨道交通网的主轴”，京津冀实现3个小时直通；2012年，环渤海主要城市及产业区之间将可实现6小时通达。按照《北京市“十一五”时期基础设施发展规划》，基本形成以北京、天津为核心，方圆500公里区域内重要城市间的陆路“三小时都市圈”。按照《天津市空间发展战略规划》，京津冀主要城市之间将形成“两小时都市圈”。
[1]顾朝林.城市群研究进展与展望[J].地理研究,2011,30(5):771-784.
[2]郭凤城.产业群、城市群的耦合与区域经济发展[D].吉林大学,2008.
[3]祝尔娟.“十二五”时期京津冀发展阶段与趋势特征分析[J].经济与管理研究,2010,(10):122-128.
[4]吴群刚,杨开忠.关于京津冀区域一体化发展的思考[J].城市问题,2010,(1):11-16.
[5]北京市十二五规划,2011.
[6]天津市十二五规划,2011.
[7]河北省十二五规划,2011.
[8]李彦军.产业长波、城市生命周期与城市转型[J].发展研究,2009,(11):4-8.
[9]Krugman, Paul. Increasing Returns and Economic Geography[J]. Journal ofPolitical Economy,1991,99(3):483-499.
[10]Fujita M, Thisse J F. Economics of Agglomeration, Cities, Industrial Location, andRegional Growth[M].Cambridge University Press,2002.
[11]World Bank. World Development Report2009: Reshaping Economic Geography[R]. Oxford University Press,2009.
[12]Itoh R. Dynamic Control of Rural-urban Migration[J]. Journal of UrbanEconomics,2009,66:196-202.
[13]Henderson J. V. The Urbanization Process and Economic Growth: The So-WhatQuestion[J]. Journal of Economics Growth,2003,8:47-71.
[14]Henderson J. V. Cities and Development[J]. Journal of Regional Science,2010,50(1):515-540.
[15]辜胜阻,刘传江,钟水映.中国自上而下城镇化发展研究[J].中国人口科学,1998,3:1-10.
[16]杨开忠.中国城市化驱动经济增长的机制与概念模型[J].城市问题,2001,3:4-7.
[17]李京文,吉昱华.中国城市化水平之国际比较[J].城市发展研究,2004,11(3):1-10.
[18]王小鲁,樊纲.中国收入差距的走势和影响因素分析[J].经济研究,2005,(10):24-36.
[19]顾乃华.生产性服务业对工业获利能力的影响和渠道——基于城市面板数据和SFA模型的实证研究[J].中国工业经济,2010,(5):48-58.
[20]李郇.中国城市化滞后的经济因素—基于面板数据的国际比较[J].地理研究,2005,(3):421-431.
[21]埃比尼泽.霍德华.明日的田园城市[M].上海:商务出版社,2002.
[22] Gottmann. Megalopolis: or the urbanization of the Northeastern Seaboard.Economic Geography [J].1957,(33):189-200.
[23] Kunzmann K R, Wegener M. The Attern of Urbanizationin Western Euro Pe J[J].Ekistics,1991,50(2):156-178.
[24] Pyrgiotis Y. N. Urban Networking in Euro Pe J[J]. Ekisties,1991,(2):350-351.
[25]于洪俊.宁越敏.城市地理概论[M].安徽:安徽科学技术出版社,1983.
[26]薛凤旋,蔡建明.中国三大都会经济区的演变及其发展战略[J].地理研究,2003,22(5):532-533.
[27]Hall P, Pain K. The Polycentric Metropolis: Learning from Mega-city Regions inEurope[M]. London: Earthscan,2006.
[28]Lang R E, Dhavale D. Beyond megalopolis: Exploring America’s new“Megapolitan” geography[J]. Metropolitan Institute Census Report,2005,5-6.
[29] J.V.Henderson,The Sizes and Types of Cities[J]. Ameriean Eeonomic Review,1974,(64):640-656.
[30]Abdel-Rahman, H. M, Fujita, M. Product Variety, Marshallian Externalities andCity Sizes[J]. Journal of Regional Science,1990,(30):165-183.
[31]Henderson, J. V. Eeonomic Theory and the Cities[M]. Aeademi Press,1985,1-3.
[32]Henderson, J. V, Wang, H. G. Urbanization and City Growth The Role ofInstitutions[J]. Regional Science and Urban Eeonomic,2007,(37):283-313.
[33]Abdel-Rahman, H. M. Agglomeration Economies, Types, and Sizes of Cities[J].Journal of Urban Economics,1990,(27):25-45.
[34]Goldstein,G.S, Gronberg,T. Economies of Scope and Economies ofAgglomeration[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,1984,(16):91-104.
[35]Hobson, P. Optimal Product Variety in Urban Areas[J]. Journal of UrbanEconomics,1987,(22):190-197.
[36]Rivera-Batiz, F.L. Increasing Returns, Monopolistic Competition andAgglomeration Economies in Consumption and Production[J]. Regional Science andUrban Economics, l988,(18):25-153.
[37]Abdel-Rahman, H. M, Fujita, M. Specialization and Diversification in a System ofCities[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,1993,(33):189-222.
[38] Anas, A., K. Xiong. Intercity Trade and the Industrial Diversification of Cities[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2003,(54):258-276.
[39]Duranton, G.,D. Puga. Nursery Cities: Urban Diversity, Process Innovation, andthe Life Cycle of Products[J]. American Economic Review,2001,(91):1454-1477.
[40]Duranton G., Puga D. Diversity and Specialization in Cities: Why, Where andWhen Does it Matter[J]. Urban Studies,2000,(37):53-555.
[41]Brezis, Elise., Paul R., Krugman. Teehnology and the Life Cycle of Cities[J].Journal of Eeonomic Growth,1997,(2):369-383.
[42]Duranton, G.,D. Puga. Nursery Cities: Urban Diversity, Process Innovation, andthe Life Cycle of Products[J]. American Economic Review,2001,(91):1454-1477.
[43]Black D, Henderson V A. Theory of Urban Growth[J]. Journal of PoliticalEconomy,1999,107:252-284.
[44] Alonso-Villar, O. Urban Agglomeration: Knowledge Spillover and ProduetDiversity[J]. Annals of Regional Scienee,2002,(36):551-573.
[45] Berliant, M., Reed, R. R., Wang, P. Knowledge Exehange, Matehing, andAgglomeration[J]. Journal of UrbanEeonomics,2006,(60):69-95.
[46]Krugman, Paul. Increasing Returns and Economic Geography[J]. Journal ofPolitical Economy,1991,99(3):483-499.
[47]Fujita, M., Krugman, p. When is the Eeonomy Mono-centric: von Thünen andChamberlin Unified [J]. Regional Scienee and Urban Eeonomies,1995,(25):505-528.
[48]Fujita, M,, T. Mori. Structure Stability and Evolution of Uthan Systems[J].Regional Seience and Urban Eeonomies,1997,(27):399-442
[49]Fujita M, P A Krugman, A J Venables.The Spatial Economy[M]. MIT Press,1999.
[50]S. M. Pandy, Nature and Determinants of Urbanization in a Developing Economy:The Case of India[J]. Economic development and cultural change,1997,25,265-278.
[51]Davis,James C. and J.Uernon Henderson, Evidence on the Political economy ofthe Urbanization Process[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,2003,53:98-125.
[52]Moomaw R.L,Shatter A.M,Urbanization and Economic Development: A BiasToward Large Cities?[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,1996,40(1):13-37.
[53]Hazel Moir. Relationships between Urbanization Level and the IndustrialStructure of the Labor Force[J]. Economic Development and Cultural Change,2006,25(1):123-135.
[54]刘耀彬,王启仿.改革开放以来中国工业化与城市化协调发展分析[J].经济地理,2004,(5):600-603.
[55]张燕,吴玉鸣.中国区域工业化与城市化时空耦合协调机制分析[J].城市发展研究,2006,(6):46-51.
[56]余华银,杨烨军.安徽新型工业化与城市化关系研究[J].财贸研究,2007,(1):13-19.
[57]曾国平,刘佳,曹跃群.中国服务业发展与城市化关系的区域差异—基于省级面板数据的协整检验[J].山西财经大学学报,2008,(1):32-37.
[58]方俊伟.浙江省现代服务业与城市化的协整及Granger检验[J].工业技术经济,2007,(7):72-74.
[59]张建伟,杜德斌,张战仁.研发产业与城市化互动视角下研发城市的构建[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2011,32(5):102-107.
[60]欧阳晓,生延超.城市化水平与产业结构调整的内在互动机制[J].广州大学学报(社会科学版),2006,(11):47-51.
[61]李丽萍,郭宝华.城市化形成机制的经济学分析[J].中州学刊,2006,(5):53-57.
[62]赵航.产业集聚效应与城市功能空间演化[J].城市问题,2011,(3):16-21.
[63]李培祥,李诚固.区域产业结构演变与城市化时序阶段分析[J].经济问题,2003,(1):4-6.
[64]陈鸿宇,周立彩.城市化与产业结构关系探讨[J].岭南学刊,2001,(6):53-57.
[65]战明华,许月丽.规模和产业结构的关联效应、城市化与经济内生增长[J].经济科学,2006,(3):19-27.
[66]Lucas, Robert E. On the Mechanics of Economic Development[J]. Journal ofMonetary Economics,1988,22(1):3-42.
[67]袁志刚,绍挺.土地制度与中国城市结构、产业结构选择[J].经济学动态,2010,(12):28-35.
[68]Lall S, Shalizi, Deichmann U. Agglomeration Economies and Productivity inIndian Industry[J]. Journal of Development Economics,2004,73(2):643-673.
[69]Alonso-Villar O, Chamorro-Rivas J-M, Gonzalez-Cerdeira X. AgglomerationEconomies and Industrial Location: City-level Evidence[J]. Economic Geography,2004,4(5):565-582.
[70]蔡孝箴.城市经济学[M].天津:南开大学出版社,1998.
[71]朱智文.基于产业集聚的城市化和城市化过程中的产业集聚[J].开发研究,2006,(6):45-48.
[72]王君萍,项桂英.产业集群发展对城市化进程的影响研究[J].商业研究,2007,(10):133-135.
[73]李敦瑞.产业集群发展与区域城市化的互动作用[J].经济导刊,2007,(10):54-55.
[74]吴丰林,方创琳,赵雅萍.城市产业集聚动力机制与模式研究的PAF模型[J].地理研究,2011,30(1):71-81.
[75]Mills, Edwin S. Studies in Indian Urban Development[M].Washington,D.C.:Published for the World Bank [by] Oxford University Press,1986.
[76]Alonso-Villar O, Chamorro-Rivas J-M, Gonzalez-Cerdeira X. AgglomerationEconomies and Industrial Location: City-level Evidence[J]. Economic Geography,2004,4(5):565-582.
[77]张祥建,唐炎华,徐晋.长江三角洲城市群空间结构演化的产业机理[J].经济理论与经济管理,2003,(10):65-69.
[78]涂人猛.产业集群理论与城市圈的发展[J].湖北社会科学,2007,(12):87-89.
[79]冯碧梅,刘传江.全球价值链视角的武汉城市圈产业体系构建—推动武汉城市圈低碳经济发展[J].中国人口资源与环境,2010,20(3):67-72.
[80]杨波,吴聘奇.城市化进程中城市集中度对经济增长的影响[J].社会科学研究,2007,(4):20-26.
[81]Rosenthal S S, Strange W C.Chapter49Evidence on the Nature and Sources ofAgglomeration Economies,in Thisse J F,Henderson V(eds.), Handbook of Regional andUrban Economics, Elsevier,2004,4:2119-2171.
[82]Davis D R, Weinstein D E. Economic Geography and Regional ProductionStructure: An Empirical Investigation[J]. European Economic Review,1999,43:379-407.
[83]Stahl K. A Note on the Microeconomics of Migration[J]. Journal of UrbanEconomics,1983,14:318-326.
[84] Glaeser E, Kolko J, Saiz A. Consumer City[J]. Journal of Economic Geography,2001,1:27-50.
[85]Henderson J V, Y Ioannides. Aspects of Growth in a System of Cities[J]. Journalof Urban Economics,1981,10:117-139.
[86]Helpman,E.. The size of regions. In: D.Pines, E. Sadka and I.Zilcha (eds.),Topicsin Public Economics: Theoretical and Applied Analysis, Cambridge University Press,1998,33-54.
[87]Tabuchi T.Urban Agglomeration and Dispersion: A synthesis of Alonso andKrugman[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,1998,44:333-351.
[88]Fujita M, Thisse J F. Economics of Agglomeration, Cities, Industrial Location, andRegional Growth[M].Cambridge University Press,2002.
[89]Baldwin R, Forslid R.The Core-Periphery Model and Endogenous Growth:Stabilizing and Destabilizing Integration[J]. Economica, New Series,2000,67(267):307-324.
[90]陈美玲.城市群相关概念的研究探讨[J].城市发展研究,2012,18(3):5-8.
[91]姚士谋,陈振光,朱明英.中国城市群[M].合肥:中国科技大学出版社,2006.
[92]仇保兴.应对机遇与挑战——中国城镇化战略研究主要问题与对策[M].中国建筑工业出版社,2009.
[93]熊映梧等.论产业结构优化的适度经济增长[J].经济研究,1990(3):3-11
[94]臧旭恒等.产业经济学[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2002.
[95]戴伯勋等.现代产业经济学[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2001.
[96]杨林,邢开蓉.充分发挥地方政府和市场在产业结构优化升级中的作用[J].经济问题探索,2001(11):33-34.
[97]焦继文,李冻菊.再论产业结构合理化的评判标准[J].经济经纬,2004(4):88-91.
[98]王德章,赵大伟,杜会永.中国绿色食品产业结构优化与政策创新[J].中国工业经济,2009(9):67-76
[99]Carriquiry, Miguel A. Babcock, Bruce A. Reputations, Market Structure, and theChoice of Quality Assurance Systems in the Food Industry [J]. American Journal ofAgricultural Economics,2007,89(l)1-5.
[100]DeWitt T, Giunipero L C, Melton H L. Clusters and supply chain management:The Amish experience [J]. International Journal of Physical Distribution and LogisticsManagement,2006,36(4):289-308.
[101]Albino V, Carbonara N, Giannoccaro I. Supply chain cooperation in industrialdistricts: A simulation analysis [J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2007,177(1):261-280.
[102]吴福象王德鑫.产业融合的产业结构高级化效应——基于土海市六大支柱产业的实证研究[J].南京邮电大学学报:社会科学版,2009,(2):8-12.
[103]Steven Klepper. The Evolution of the US Automobile Industry and Detroit as itsCapital [J]. Industrial and Corporate Change,2001,11:645–676.
[104]Donald R. Davis and David E. Weinstein. A search for multiple equilibria inurban industrial structure [J]. National Bureau of Economic Research,2004.29-65.
[105]Franco Malerba. Innovation and the evolution of industrial [J]. Journal ofEvolutionary Economics,2005,9(16):13-23
[106]Magnus Blomstrom and Ari Kokko.from Nature Resources to High-TechProduction: The evolution of industry Competitiveness in Sweden and Finland[M].Stanford University Press,2006,213-238
[107]Ron A Boschma and Rik Wenting.The spatial evolution of the BritishAutomobil-bile industry: Does location matter?[J] Industrial and CorporateChange,2007,16(2):213-238.
[108]王小鲁.城市化与经济增长[J].经济社会体制比较,2002,(1):23-32.
[109]J. Vernon Henderson, H. Gun Wang. Urbanization and city growth: The role ofinstitutions [J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2007,37(3):283-313.
[110]S. Findeisen, J. Südekum. Industry churning and the evolution of cities: Evidencefor Germany [J]. Journal of Urban Economics,2008(64):326-339.
[111]周毅.城市化理论的发展与演变[J].城市问题,2009(11):27-30,97.
[112]P. Knox. Urbanization [J]. International Encyclopedia of Human Geography,2009:112-118.
[113]崔胜辉,李方一,于裕贤,林剑艺.城市化与可持续城市化的理论探讨[J].城市发展研究,2010,17(3):17-21.
[114]张樨樨.我国城市化水平综合评价指标体系研究[J].中国海洋大学学报,2010(1):60-64.
[115]Simeon Djankov,Carolinc. Freund Trade Flows in the Former Soviet Union1987to1996[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics,2002,30(1):76-90.
[116]Hidenobu Matsumoto. International Urban Systems and Air Passenger and CargoFlows Some Calculations[J]. Journal of Air Transport Management,2004,(10):241-249.
[117]Edward L Glaeser. Learning in Cities[J].Journal of Urban Economics,1999,46(2):254-277.
[118]Kurt Fuellhart.Inter-metropolitan Airport Substitution by Consumers in AnAsymmetrical Airfare Environment Harrisburg Philadelphia and Baltimore[J].Journal ofTransport Geography,2003,(11):285-296.
[119]Shen Guo qiang.Reverse－Fitting the Gravity Model to Inter-city AirlinePassenger Flows by an Algebraic Simplification[J]. Journal of Transport Geography,2004,(12):219-234.
[120]李红锦,李胜会.基于引力模型的城市群经济空间联系研究——珠三角城市群的实证研究[J].华南理工大学学报(社会科学版),2011,13(1):19-24.
[121]程大林,李侃桢,张京祥.都市圈内部联系与圈层地域界定——南京都市圈的实证研究[J].城市规划,2003,27(11):30-33.
[122]顾朝林,庞海峰.基于重力模型的中国城市体系空间联系与层域划分[J].地理研究,2008,27(1):1-12.
[123]王芳,夏丽华,张太煜.基于GIS的珠江三角洲城市群结构与空间关联研究[J].广州大学学报(自然科学版),2010,9(1):47-53.
[124]陈群元,宋玉祥.基于城市流视角的环长株潭城市群空间联系分析[J].经济地理,2011,31(11):1840-1844.
[125]钟业喜,陆玉麒.基于空间联系的城市腹地范围划分——以江苏省为例[J].地理科学,2012,32(5):536-543.
[126]高汝熹.城市圈域经济论[M].北京:科学出版社,2001．
[127]姜博,修春亮,陈才.辽中南城市群城市流分析与模型阐释[J].经济地理,2008,28(5):853-857.
[128]陈园园,李宁,丁四保.城市群空间联系能力与SOM神经网络分级研究——以辽中南城市群为例[J].地理科学,2011,31(12):1461-1467.
[129]李娜.长三角城市群空间联系与整合[J].地域研究与开发,2011,30(5):72-77.
[130]Levine, R.. International Financial Liberalization and Economic Growth [J],Review of International Economics,2001,9(4):688-702.
[131] Levine, R.. Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence [M], Aghion, P., Durlauf,S.(Eds.),Hand Book of Economic Growth, Elsevier,2004.
[132]Tobler W.R.,Lattice Tuning. Geographical Analysis[M],1997.
[133]Anselin L. Spatial data analysis with GIS: an introduction to application in thesocial sciences[M]. Santa Barbara, CA: National Center foe Geographic Information andAnalysis,1992.
[134]Anselin L. Spatial econometrics: methods and models[M]. Dordrecht: KluwerAcademic Publishers,1988.
[135]Ord J.K.,Getis A., Local Autocorrelation Statistics: Distributional Issues and anApplication[J]. Geographical Analysis,1995.27(4):286-306.
[136]Anselin L. Spatial externalities, spatial multipliers, and spatialeconometrics[J].International Regional Science Review,2003,26(2):156-166.
[137]Anselin L.,BeraA.K, Florax R., Yoon, M.J., Simple Diagnostic Tests for SpatialDependence[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics, February,1966,26(1):77-104.
[138]吴玉鸣.中国经济增长与收入分配差异的空间计量经济分析[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2005.
[139]任英华,徐玲,游万海.金融集聚影响因素空间计量模型及其应用[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2010,(5):104-115.
[140]Hastie T.,Tibshirani R., Varying Coefficient Models[J]. Journal of the RoyalStatistics,1993,18(4):162-171.
[141]Lesage J.P., A Family of Geographically Weighted Regression Models. InAdvances in Spatial Econometrics. Edited by Luc Anselin, Raymond, J.G Florax, Sen go J.Rey, Berlin: Springer-Verlag,2004:241-264.
[142]蔡碧良.我国省际劳动就业及其影响因素的空间计量分析[D].湖南大学,2009.
[143]吴玉鸣.空间计量经济模型在省域研发与创新中的应用研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究.2006,23(5):74-85,130.
[144]高远东.中国区域经济增长的空间计量研究[D].重庆大学,2010.
[145]赵儒煜,刘畅,张锋.中国人口老龄化区域溢出与分布差异的空间计量经济学研究[J].人口研究,2012,2:71-81.
[146]Le Sage, J. P., Pace, R. K. Introduction to Spatial Econometrics[M]. Boca Raton:CRC Press Taylor&Francis Group,2009:73-75.
[147]Kelejian, H. H., Prucha, I.R. A Generalized Spatial Two Stage Least SquaresProcedure for Estimating a Spatial Autoregressive Model with Autoregressive Disturbances[J]. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,1998,17(1):99-121.
[148]LeSage, J.P., Pace, R.K. Introduction to Spatial Econometrics [M]. Boca Raton:Taylor&Francis,2009.
[149]Elhorst, J.P. Handbook of Applied Spatial Analysis [M]. Berlin: Springer,2009:2-4.
[150]Baltagi, B.H. Econometric Analysis of Panel Data (3rd edn)[M]. Wiley:Chichester,2005,1-9.
[151]Elhorst, J.P. Applied Spatial Econometrics: Raising the Bar [J]. SpatialEconomic Analysis,2010,5(1):18-24.
[152]Ertur, C., Koch, W. Growth, Technological Interdependence and SpatialExternalities: Theory and Evidence [J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics,2007,22(6):1033–1062.
[153]Elhorst, J.P. Dynamic Spatial Panels: Models, Methods, and Inferences [J].Journal of Geographical Systems,2012,14(1):1-25.
[154]Anselin, L., Le Gallo, J., Jayet, H. Spatial Panel Econometrics In: Ma′tya′s L,Sevestre P (eds)//The Econometrics of Panel Data, Fundamentals and RecentDevelopments in Theory and Practice(3rd edn)[M]. Kluwer: Dordrecht,2008:625–657.
[155]Yu, J., Jong, R.De., Lee, L. Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimators for SpatialDynamic Panel Data with Fixed Effects when Both N and T are Large[J]. Journal ofEconometrics,2007,146(1):118-126.
[156]Lee, L.F., Yu, J. Efficient GMM Estimation of Spatial Dynamic Panel DataModels With Fixed Effects[J/OL].2010.www.economics.smu.edu.sg/events/Paper/LungfeiLee.pdf
[157]LeSage, J.P., Pace, R.K. Introduction to Spatial Econometrics [M]. Boca Raton:Taylor&Francis,2009:88-109.
[158]Korniotis, G.M.Estimating Panel Models with Internal and External HabitFormation[J]. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,2010,28(1):145–158.
[159]Parent, O., LeSage, J.P.A Spatial Dynamic Panel Model with Random EffectsApplied to Commuting Times[J]. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological,2010,44(5):633–645.
[160]Parent, O., LeSage, J.P.A Space-Time Filter for Panel Data Models ContainingRandom Effects[J]. Computational Statistics&Data Analysis,2011,55(1):475–490.
[161]Franzese Jr, R.J., Hays, J.C. Spatial Econometric Models of Cross-SectionalInterdependence in Political Science Panel and Time-Series-Cross-Section Data[J].Political Analysis,2007,15(2):140–164.
[162]Kukenova, M., Monteiro, J.A. Spatial Dynamic Panel Model and System GMM:a Monte Carlo Investigation [J/OL].2009, http://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/11569.html
[163]Elhorst, J.P. Dynamic Panels with Endogenous Interaction Effects when T isSmall[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2010,40(5):272–282.
[164]Jacobs, J.P.A.M., Ligthart, J.E., Vrijburg, H. Dynamic Panel Data ModelsFeaturing Endogenous Interactionand Spatially Correlated Errors[J/OL].2009.http://ideas.repec.org/p/ays/ispwps/paper0915.html
[165]Brady, R.R. Measuring the Diffusion of Housing Prices across Space and Time[J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics,2011,26(2):213–231.
[166]徐现祥,周吉梅,舒元.中国省区三次产业资本存量估计[J].统计研究,2007,(5):6-13.
[167]黄宗远,宫汝凯.中国省区物质资本存量的重估:1978—2007年[J].广西师范大学学报,2010,(1):74-80.
[168]孙辉.支大林,李宏瑾.对中国各省资本存量的估计及典型性事实:1978～2008[J].广东金融学院学报,2010,25(3):103-116.
[169]叶宗裕.中国省际资本存量估算[J].统计研究,2010,27(12):65-71.
[170]靖学青.中国省际物质资本存量估计:1952-2010[J].广东社会科学,2013,(2):46-55.
[171]单豪杰.中国资本存量K的再估算:1952-2006年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008,(10):17-31.
[172]唐志宏.中国平均利润率的估算[J].经济研究,1999,(5):61-65.
[173]Mankiw. N. G.,D. Romer and D. N. Weil. A Contribution to the Empires ofEconomic Growth[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1992,107(2):407-437.
[174]Bloom, D. E., D. Canning and J. Sevilla. The Effect of Health on EconomicGrowth: A Production Function Approach[J]. World Development,2004,32(1):1-13.
[175]Chi, W. The Role of Human Capital in China's Economic Development: Reviewand New Evidence[J], China Economic Review,2008,19:421-436.
[176]杜江,刘渝.农业经济增长因素分析:物质资本,人力资本,还是对外贸易?[J].南开经济研究,2010,(3):73-89.
[177]钱晓烨,迟巍,黎波.人力资本对我国区域创新及经济增长的影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2010,(4):107-121.
[178]王少波,黄桂然.山东、江苏两省人力资本水平评估及启示[J].中国人口资源与环境,2013,23(2):163-168.
[179]朱传耿.外商直接投资对城市发展的影响效应研究[J].中国软科学,2004,(3):111-116,129.
[180]代谦,别朝霞. FDI、人力资本积累与经济增长[J].经济研究,2006,(4):15-27.
[181]李小平,朱钟棣.国际贸易、R&D溢出和生产率增长[J].经济研究,2006,(2):31-43.
[182]冯志军,陈伟.技术来源与研发创新全要素生产率增长——基于中国区域大中型工业企业的实证研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2013,34(3):33-41.
[183]卢方元,靳丹丹.我国R&D投入对经济增长的影响——基于面板数据的实证分析[J],2011,(3):149-157.
[184]刘小玄.中国转型经济中的产权结构和市场结构[J].经济研究,2003,(1):56-58.
[185]刘海英,张纯洪.非国有经济发展对中国经济增长质量影响机理研究——来自VEC模型的新证据[J].经济学家,2007,(6):63-70.
[186]刘宇春,景维民.中国转型期投资效率下降的所有制结构解析[J].南开经济研究,2011,(1):15-23.
[187]Zhang X B,Kanbur R. What Difference Do Polarization Measures Make? AnApplication to China[J]. Journal of Development Studies,2001,37(31):85-98.
[188]Esteban J. E., Ray D. On the Measurement of Polarization[J]. Econometrica,1994,62(4):819-851.
[189]Michael C, Wolfson. Conceptual Issues in Normative Measurement: WhenInequalities Diverge[J]. American Economic Review,1994,84(2):353-358.
[190]Boarnet M G. Spillovers and the Locational Effects of Public Infrastructure[J].Journal of Regional Science,1998,38(3):381-400.
[191]马国霞,田玉军,石勇.京津冀都市圈经济增长的空间极化及其模拟研究[J].经济地理,2010,30(2):177-182.
[192]郭腾云,董冠鹏,孙威.规模报酬递增与京津冀都市区经济增长[J].地理研究,2011,30(10):1873-1881.
[193]林毅夫,蔡昉,李周.中国经济转型时期的地区差距分析[J].经济研究,1998,(6):3-10.
[194]任崇强,宗跃光,王燕军.京津冀地区产业结构和竞争力空间分异研究[J].地域研究与开发,2012,31(3):1-5.
[195]顾朝林.中国城镇体系:历史现状展望[M].北京:商务印书馆,1992.
[196]Fujita M, Morit T. Structural stability and evolution of urban systems[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,1997,27(4-5):399-442.
[197]Bonfig L A, Cosmi C A. GIS application for regional planning. GIS Tech. andTheir Environ.Appl. GIS’98[C].1998:231-240.
[198]Ertur C, Le Gallo J, BaumontC. The European Regional Convergence Process,1980-1995: Do Spatial Dependence and SpatialHeterogeneityMatter?[J]. InternationalRegional Science Review,2006,29:2-34.
[199]孙贵艳,王传胜,肖磊等.长江三角洲城市群城镇体系演化时空特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2011,20(6):641-649.
[200]朱翔.洞庭湖区城镇体系建设研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,1999,8(3):236-242.
[201]刘雪,刁承泰,黄娟.江津市城镇体系结构研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2007,16(3):284-288.
[202]王茂军,张学霞,齐元静.近50年来山东城市体系的演化过程:基于城市中心性的分析[J].地理研究,2005,24(3):432-442.
[203]周一星.城市地理学[M].北京:商务印书馆,1995.
[204]高翔,鱼腾飞,程慧波.城镇体系结构及与城市化的耦合机制:以西陇海兰新经济带甘肃段为例[J].地理科学进展,2009,28(9):744-750.
[205]董冠鹏,郭腾云,马静.京津冀都市区经济增长空间分异的GIS分析[J].地球信息科学学报,2010,12(6):797-805.
[206]Kelejian HH, Prucha IR. Specification and estimation of spatial autoregressivemodels with autoregressive and heteroskedastic disturbances[J]. Journal of Econometrics,2010:157(1):53–67.
[207]Pesaran MH, Tosetti E. Large panels with common factors and spatial correlation.Journal of Econometrics,2011,161(2):182–202.
[208]Hall P.. Toward a General Urban Theory. In J. Brotchic, M. Batty,Blackely,P.Hall,＆P. Newton. Cities in Competition: productive and sustainable cities for21st century,Melbourne: Longman Austealia.1995,3-31.
[209]姚士谋等.我国城市群区战略规划的关键问题[J].经济地理,2008,28(4):529-534.
[210]樊杰.京津冀城市群区域综合规划研究[M].科学出版社,2008.
[211]高素英,郝晓华,刘建朝等.滨海新区城市进化评价研究[J].天津大学学报(社会科学版),2013.15(1):15-20.
[212]张艳,程遥,刘婧.中心城市发展与城市群产业整合——以郑州及中原城市群为例[J].经济地理,2010,30(4):579-584.
[213]Theodore Tsekeris, Nikolas Geroliminis. City size, network structure and trafficcongestion[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,2013,76:1-14.
[214]Yoshitsugu Kanemoto. Second-best cost–benefit analysis in monopolisticcompetition models of urban agglomeration[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,2013,76:83-92.
[215]Hans R.A. Koster, Jan Rouwendal. Agglomeration, commuting costs, and theinternal structure of cities[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2013,43:352-366.
[216]Dongya Li a, Yi Lu b, Mingqin Wu. Industrial agglomeration and firm size:Evidence from China[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2012,42:135-143.
[217]Kiyohiro Ikeda, Takashi Akamatsu, Tatsuhito Kono. Spatial period-doublingagglomeration of acore–periphery model with a system of cities[J]. Journal of EconomicDynamics&Control,2012,36:754-778.
[218]Joshua Drucker, Edward Feser. Regional industrial structure and agglomerationeconomies: An analysis of productivity in three manufacturing industries[J]. RegionalScience and Urban Economics,2012,42:1-14.
[219]Stuart A. Gabriel, Stuart S. Rosenthal. Urbanization, agglomeration economies,and access to mortgage credit[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2013,43:42-50.
[220]Chery LONG, Xiaobo ZHANG. Patterns of China's industrialization:Concentration, specialization, and clustering[J]. China Economic Review,2012,23:593-612.
[221]Ling PENG, Yongmiao HONG. Productivity spillovers among linked sectors[J].China Economic Review,2013,25:44-61.
[222]Masahisa Fujita. Thünen and the New Economic Geography[J]. RegionalScience and Urban Economics,2012,42:907-912.
[223]Mark Roberts, Uwe Deichmann, Bernard Fingleton a, Tuo Shi. EvaluatingChina's road to prosperity: A new economic geography approach[J]. Regional Science andUrban Economics,2012,42:580-594.
[224]Hiroki Kondo. International R&D subsidy competition, industrial agglomerationand growth[J]. Journal of International Economics,2013,89:233-251.
[225]Steven Brakman, Charles van Marrewijk. Lumpy countries, urbanization, andtrade[J]. Journal of International Economics,2013,89:252-261.
[226]David Cuberes. Sequential city growth: Empirical evidence[J]. Journal ofUrban Economics,2011,69:229-239.
[227]Maarten Bosker, Steven Brakman, Harry Garretsen, Marc Schramm. RelaxingHukou: Increased labor mobility and China’s economic geography[J]. Journal of UrbanEconomics,2012,72:252-266.
[228]高素英,胡丹,刘建朝等.京津冀高新技术产业协同创新研究[J].河北工业大学学报,2011,40(6):107-112.
[229]张亚斌,张敏敏.中心外围理论与3+5城市群圈层发展模式设计[J].湖南大学学报(社会科学版),2010,24(2):156-162.
[230]张淑莲,高素英,刘建朝.京津冀医药制造业产业协同的实证研究[J].河北经贸大学学报,2011,5(32):87-92.
[231]方创琳,蔺雪芹.武汉城市群的空间整合与产业合理化组织[J].地理研究,2008,27(2):397-408.
[232]刘建朝,高素英.基于城市联系强度与城市流的京津冀城市群空间联系研究[J].地域研究与开发,2013,32(2):57-61.
[233]师谦友,郭华.区域一体化背景下关中空间整合研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2007,23(5):77-82.
[234]汤放华,陈立立,曾志伟等.城市群空间结构演化趋势与空间重构——以长株潭城市群为例[J].城市发展研究,2010,17(3):65-71.
[235]李红,张平宇,刘文新.基于新区域主义的城市群制度整合研究——以辽宁中部城市群为例[J].地域研究与开发,2010,29(5):45-51.
[236]高素英,杨丽芸,王竞等.滨海新区与环渤海地区经济增长互动效应研究—基于VAR模型的脉冲影响分析[J].天津大学学报(社会科学版),2010(4):338-342.
[237]Huasheng Song, Jacques-Fran ois Thisse, Xiwei Zhu. Urbanization and/or ruralindustrialization in China[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2012,42:126-134.
[238]Marcus Berliant, Chia-Ming Yu. Rational expectations in urban economics[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,2013,43:197-208.
[239] Jordan W. Smith, Myron, Floy. The urban growth machine, central place theoryand access to open space[J]. City, Culture and Society,2013,(4):87-98.
1Ertur, C., Koch, W. Growth, Technological Interdependence and Spatial Externalities: Theory and Evidence [J].Journal of Applied Econometrics,2007,22（6）:1033–1062.
2Elhorst, J.P. Dynamic Spatial Panels: Models, Methods, and Inferences [J]. Journal of Geographical Systems,2012,14（1）:21-25.
3Ertur, C., Koch, W. Growth, Technological Interdependence and Spatial Externalities: Theory and Evidence [J].Journal of Applied Econometrics,2007,22（6）:1033–1062.
4Elhorst, J.P. Dynamic Spatial Panels: Models, Methods, and Inferences [J]. Journal of Geographical Systems,2012,14（1）:21-25.
1按照《环渤海京津冀地区城际轨道交通网规划（2005-2020）》，到2010年“建成北京—天津—塘沽城际轨道交通线，构建京津冀地区城际轨道交通网的主轴”，京津冀实现3个小时直通；2012年，环渤海主要城市及产业区之间将可实现6小时通达。按照《北京市“十一五”时期基础设施发展规划》，基本形成以北京、天津为核心，方圆500公里区域内重要城市间的陆路“三小时都市圈”。按照《天津市空间发展战略规划》，京津冀主要城市之间将形成“两小时都市圈”。
[1]顾朝林.城市群研究进展与展望[J].地理研究,2011,30(5):771-784.
[2]郭凤城.产业群、城市群的耦合与区域经济发展[D].吉林大学,2008.
[3]祝尔娟.“十二五”时期京津冀发展阶段与趋势特征分析[J].经济与管理研究,2010,(10):122-128.
[4]吴群刚,杨开忠.关于京津冀区域一体化发展的思考[J].城市问题,2010,(1):11-16.
[5]北京市十二五规划,2011.
[6]天津市十二五规划,2011.
[7]河北省十二五规划,2011.
[8]李彦军.产业长波、城市生命周期与城市转型[J].发展研究,2009,(11):4-8.
[9]Krugman, Paul. Increasing Returns and Economic Geography[J]. Journal ofPolitical Economy,1991,99(3):483-499.
[10]Fujita M, Thisse J F. Economics of Agglomeration, Cities, Industrial Location, andRegional Growth[M].Cambridge University Press,2002.
[11]World Bank. World Development Report2009: Reshaping Economic Geography[R]. Oxford University Press,2009.
[12]Itoh R. Dynamic Control of Rural-urban Migration[J]. Journal of UrbanEconomics,2009,66:196-202.
[13]Henderson J. V. The Urbanization Process and Economic Growth: The So-WhatQuestion[J]. Journal of Economics Growth,2003,8:47-71.
[14]Henderson J. V. Cities and Development[J]. Journal of Regional Science,2010,50(1):515-540.
[15]辜胜阻,刘传江,钟水映.中国自上而下城镇化发展研究[J].中国人口科学,1998,3:1-10.
[16]杨开忠.中国城市化驱动经济增长的机制与概念模型[J].城市问题,2001,3:4-7.
[17]李京文,吉昱华.中国城市化水平之国际比较[J].城市发展研究,2004,11(3):1-10.
[18]王小鲁,樊纲.中国收入差距的走势和影响因素分析[J].经济研究,2005,(10):24-36.
[19]顾乃华.生产性服务业对工业获利能力的影响和渠道——基于城市面板数据和SFA模型的实证研究[J].中国工业经济,2010,(5):48-58.
[20]李郇.中国城市化滞后的经济因素—基于面板数据的国际比较[J].地理研究,2005,(3):421-431.
[21]埃比尼泽.霍德华.明日的田园城市[M].上海:商务出版社,2002.
[22] Gottmann. Megalopolis: or the urbanization of the Northeastern Seaboard.Economic Geography [J].1957,(33):189-200.
[23] Kunzmann K R, Wegener M. The Attern of Urbanizationin Western Euro Pe J[J].Ekistics,1991,50(2):156-178.
[24] Pyrgiotis Y. N. Urban Networking in Euro Pe J[J]. Ekisties,1991,(2):350-351.
[25]于洪俊.宁越敏.城市地理概论[M].安徽:安徽科学技术出版社,1983.
[26]薛凤旋,蔡建明.中国三大都会经济区的演变及其发展战略[J].地理研究,2003,22(5):532-533.
[27]Hall P, Pain K. The Polycentric Metropolis: Learning from Mega-city Regions inEurope[M]. London: Earthscan,2006.
[28]Lang R E, Dhavale D. Beyond megalopolis: Exploring America’s new“Megapolitan” geography[J]. Metropolitan Institute Census Report,2005,5-6.
[29] J.V.Henderson,The Sizes and Types of Cities[J]. Ameriean Eeonomic Review,1974,(64):640-656.
[30]Abdel-Rahman, H. M, Fujita, M. Product Variety, Marshallian Externalities andCity Sizes[J]. Journal of Regional Science,1990,(30):165-183.
[31]Henderson, J. V. Eeonomic Theory and the Cities[M]. Aeademi Press,1985,1-3.
[32]Henderson, J. V, Wang, H. G. Urbanization and City Growth The Role ofInstitutions[J]. Regional Science and Urban Eeonomic,2007,(37):283-313.
[33]Abdel-Rahman, H. M. Agglomeration Economies, Types, and Sizes of Cities[J].Journal of Urban Economics,1990,(27):25-45.
[34]Goldstein,G.S, Gronberg,T. Economies of Scope and Economies ofAgglomeration[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,1984,(16):91-104.
[35]Hobson, P. Optimal Product Variety in Urban Areas[J]. Journal of UrbanEconomics,1987,(22):190-197.
[36]Rivera-Batiz, F.L. Increasing Returns, Monopolistic Competition andAgglomeration Economies in Consumption and Production[J]. Regional Science andUrban Economics, l988,(18):25-153.
[37]Abdel-Rahman, H. M, Fujita, M. Specialization and Diversification in a System ofCities[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,1993,(33):189-222.
[38] Anas, A., K. Xiong. Intercity Trade and the Industrial Diversification of Cities[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2003,(54):258-276.
[39]Duranton, G.,D. Puga. Nursery Cities: Urban Diversity, Process Innovation, andthe Life Cycle of Products[J]. American Economic Review,2001,(91):1454-1477.
[40]Duranton G., Puga D. Diversity and Specialization in Cities: Why, Where andWhen Does it Matter[J]. Urban Studies,2000,(37):53-555.
[41]Brezis, Elise., Paul R., Krugman. Teehnology and the Life Cycle of Cities[J].Journal of Eeonomic Growth,1997,(2):369-383.
[42]Duranton, G.,D. Puga. Nursery Cities: Urban Diversity, Process Innovation, andthe Life Cycle of Products[J]. American Economic Review,2001,(91):1454-1477.
[43]Black D, Henderson V A. Theory of Urban Growth[J]. Journal of PoliticalEconomy,1999,107:252-284.
[44] Alonso-Villar, O. Urban Agglomeration: Knowledge Spillover and ProduetDiversity[J]. Annals of Regional Scienee,2002,(36):551-573.
[45] Berliant, M., Reed, R. R., Wang, P. Knowledge Exehange, Matehing, andAgglomeration[J]. Journal of UrbanEeonomics,2006,(60):69-95.
[46]Krugman, Paul. Increasing Returns and Economic Geography[J]. Journal ofPolitical Economy,1991,99(3):483-499.
[47]Fujita, M., Krugman, p. When is the Eeonomy Mono-centric: von Thünen andChamberlin Unified [J]. Regional Scienee and Urban Eeonomies,1995,(25):505-528.
[48]Fujita, M,, T. Mori. Structure Stability and Evolution of Uthan Systems[J].Regional Seience and Urban Eeonomies,1997,(27):399-442
[49]Fujita M, P A Krugman, A J Venables.The Spatial Economy[M]. MIT Press,1999.
[50]S. M. Pandy, Nature and Determinants of Urbanization in a Developing Economy:The Case of India[J]. Economic development and cultural change,1997,25,265-278.
[51]Davis,James C. and J.Uernon Henderson, Evidence on the Political economy ofthe Urbanization Process[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,2003,53:98-125.
[52]Moomaw R.L,Shatter A.M,Urbanization and Economic Development: A BiasToward Large Cities?[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,1996,40(1):13-37.
[53]Hazel Moir. Relationships between Urbanization Level and the IndustrialStructure of the Labor Force[J]. Economic Development and Cultural Change,2006,25(1):123-135.
[54]刘耀彬,王启仿.改革开放以来中国工业化与城市化协调发展分析[J].经济地理,2004,(5):600-603.
[55]张燕,吴玉鸣.中国区域工业化与城市化时空耦合协调机制分析[J].城市发展研究,2006,(6):46-51.
[56]余华银,杨烨军.安徽新型工业化与城市化关系研究[J].财贸研究,2007,(1):13-19.
[57]曾国平,刘佳,曹跃群.中国服务业发展与城市化关系的区域差异—基于省级面板数据的协整检验[J].山西财经大学学报,2008,(1):32-37.
[58]方俊伟.浙江省现代服务业与城市化的协整及Granger检验[J].工业技术经济,2007,(7):72-74.
[59]张建伟,杜德斌,张战仁.研发产业与城市化互动视角下研发城市的构建[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2011,32(5):102-107.
[60]欧阳晓,生延超.城市化水平与产业结构调整的内在互动机制[J].广州大学学报(社会科学版),2006,(11):47-51.
[61]李丽萍,郭宝华.城市化形成机制的经济学分析[J].中州学刊,2006,(5):53-57.
[62]赵航.产业集聚效应与城市功能空间演化[J].城市问题,2011,(3):16-21.
[63]李培祥,李诚固.区域产业结构演变与城市化时序阶段分析[J].经济问题,2003,(1):4-6.
[64]陈鸿宇,周立彩.城市化与产业结构关系探讨[J].岭南学刊,2001,(6):53-57.
[65]战明华,许月丽.规模和产业结构的关联效应、城市化与经济内生增长[J].经济科学,2006,(3):19-27.
[66]Lucas, Robert E. On the Mechanics of Economic Development[J]. Journal ofMonetary Economics,1988,22(1):3-42.
[67]袁志刚,绍挺.土地制度与中国城市结构、产业结构选择[J].经济学动态,2010,(12):28-35.
[68]Lall S, Shalizi, Deichmann U. Agglomeration Economies and Productivity inIndian Industry[J]. Journal of Development Economics,2004,73(2):643-673.
[69]Alonso-Villar O, Chamorro-Rivas J-M, Gonzalez-Cerdeira X. AgglomerationEconomies and Industrial Location: City-level Evidence[J]. Economic Geography,2004,4(5):565-582.
[70]蔡孝箴.城市经济学[M].天津:南开大学出版社,1998.
[71]朱智文.基于产业集聚的城市化和城市化过程中的产业集聚[J].开发研究,2006,(6):45-48.
[72]王君萍,项桂英.产业集群发展对城市化进程的影响研究[J].商业研究,2007,(10):133-135.
[73]李敦瑞.产业集群发展与区域城市化的互动作用[J].经济导刊,2007,(10):54-55.
[74]吴丰林,方创琳,赵雅萍.城市产业集聚动力机制与模式研究的PAF模型[J].地理研究,2011,30(1):71-81.
[75]Mills, Edwin S. Studies in Indian Urban Development[M].Washington,D.C.:Published for the World Bank [by] Oxford University Press,1986.
[76]Alonso-Villar O, Chamorro-Rivas J-M, Gonzalez-Cerdeira X. AgglomerationEconomies and Industrial Location: City-level Evidence[J]. Economic Geography,2004,4(5):565-582.
[77]张祥建,唐炎华,徐晋.长江三角洲城市群空间结构演化的产业机理[J].经济理论与经济管理,2003,(10):65-69.
[78]涂人猛.产业集群理论与城市圈的发展[J].湖北社会科学,2007,(12):87-89.
[79]冯碧梅,刘传江.全球价值链视角的武汉城市圈产业体系构建—推动武汉城市圈低碳经济发展[J].中国人口资源与环境,2010,20(3):67-72.
[80]杨波,吴聘奇.城市化进程中城市集中度对经济增长的影响[J].社会科学研究,2007,(4):20-26.
[81]Rosenthal S S, Strange W C.Chapter49Evidence on the Nature and Sources ofAgglomeration Economies,in Thisse J F,Henderson V(eds.), Handbook of Regional andUrban Economics, Elsevier,2004,4:2119-2171.
[82]Davis D R, Weinstein D E. Economic Geography and Regional ProductionStructure: An Empirical Investigation[J]. European Economic Review,1999,43:379-407.
[83]Stahl K. A Note on the Microeconomics of Migration[J]. Journal of UrbanEconomics,1983,14:318-326.
[84] Glaeser E, Kolko J, Saiz A. Consumer City[J]. Journal of Economic Geography,2001,1:27-50.
[85]Henderson J V, Y Ioannides. Aspects of Growth in a System of Cities[J]. Journalof Urban Economics,1981,10:117-139.
[86]Helpman,E.. The size of regions. In: D.Pines, E. Sadka and I.Zilcha (eds.),Topicsin Public Economics: Theoretical and Applied Analysis, Cambridge University Press,1998,33-54.
[87]Tabuchi T.Urban Agglomeration and Dispersion: A synthesis of Alonso andKrugman[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,1998,44:333-351.
[88]Fujita M, Thisse J F. Economics of Agglomeration, Cities, Industrial Location, andRegional Growth[M].Cambridge University Press,2002.
[89]Baldwin R, Forslid R.The Core-Periphery Model and Endogenous Growth:Stabilizing and Destabilizing Integration[J]. Economica, New Series,2000,67(267):307-324.
[90]陈美玲.城市群相关概念的研究探讨[J].城市发展研究,2012,18(3):5-8.
[91]姚士谋,陈振光,朱明英.中国城市群[M].合肥:中国科技大学出版社,2006.
[92]仇保兴.应对机遇与挑战——中国城镇化战略研究主要问题与对策[M].中国建筑工业出版社,2009.
[93]熊映梧等.论产业结构优化的适度经济增长[J].经济研究,1990(3):3-11
[94]臧旭恒等.产业经济学[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2002.
[95]戴伯勋等.现代产业经济学[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2001.
[96]杨林,邢开蓉.充分发挥地方政府和市场在产业结构优化升级中的作用[J].经济问题探索,2001(11):33-34.
[97]焦继文,李冻菊.再论产业结构合理化的评判标准[J].经济经纬,2004(4):88-91.
[98]王德章,赵大伟,杜会永.中国绿色食品产业结构优化与政策创新[J].中国工业经济,2009(9):67-76
[99]Carriquiry, Miguel A. Babcock, Bruce A. Reputations, Market Structure, and theChoice of Quality Assurance Systems in the Food Industry [J]. American Journal ofAgricultural Economics,2007,89(l)1-5.
[100]DeWitt T, Giunipero L C, Melton H L. Clusters and supply chain management:The Amish experience [J]. International Journal of Physical Distribution and LogisticsManagement,2006,36(4):289-308.
[101]Albino V, Carbonara N, Giannoccaro I. Supply chain cooperation in industrialdistricts: A simulation analysis [J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2007,177(1):261-280.
[102]吴福象王德鑫.产业融合的产业结构高级化效应——基于土海市六大支柱产业的实证研究[J].南京邮电大学学报:社会科学版,2009,(2):8-12.
[103]Steven Klepper. The Evolution of the US Automobile Industry and Detroit as itsCapital [J]. Industrial and Corporate Change,2001,11:645–676.
[104]Donald R. Davis and David E. Weinstein. A search for multiple equilibria inurban industrial structure [J]. National Bureau of Economic Research,2004.29-65.
[105]Franco Malerba. Innovation and the evolution of industrial [J]. Journal ofEvolutionary Economics,2005,9(16):13-23
[106]Magnus Blomstrom and Ari Kokko.from Nature Resources to High-TechProduction: The evolution of industry Competitiveness in Sweden and Finland[M].Stanford University Press,2006,213-238
[107]Ron A Boschma and Rik Wenting.The spatial evolution of the BritishAutomobil-bile industry: Does location matter?[J] Industrial and CorporateChange,2007,16(2):213-238.
[108]王小鲁.城市化与经济增长[J].经济社会体制比较,2002,(1):23-32.
[109]J. Vernon Henderson, H. Gun Wang. Urbanization and city growth: The role ofinstitutions [J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2007,37(3):283-313.
[110]S. Findeisen, J. Südekum. Industry churning and the evolution of cities: Evidencefor Germany [J]. Journal of Urban Economics,2008(64):326-339.
[111]周毅.城市化理论的发展与演变[J].城市问题,2009(11):27-30,97.
[112]P. Knox. Urbanization [J]. International Encyclopedia of Human Geography,2009:112-118.
[113]崔胜辉,李方一,于裕贤,林剑艺.城市化与可持续城市化的理论探讨[J].城市发展研究,2010,17(3):17-21.
[114]张樨樨.我国城市化水平综合评价指标体系研究[J].中国海洋大学学报,2010(1):60-64.
[115]Simeon Djankov,Carolinc. Freund Trade Flows in the Former Soviet Union1987to1996[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics,2002,30(1):76-90.
[116]Hidenobu Matsumoto. International Urban Systems and Air Passenger and CargoFlows Some Calculations[J]. Journal of Air Transport Management,2004,(10):241-249.
[117]Edward L Glaeser. Learning in Cities[J].Journal of Urban Economics,1999,46(2):254-277.
[118]Kurt Fuellhart.Inter-metropolitan Airport Substitution by Consumers in AnAsymmetrical Airfare Environment Harrisburg Philadelphia and Baltimore[J].Journal ofTransport Geography,2003,(11):285-296.
[119]Shen Guo qiang.Reverse－Fitting the Gravity Model to Inter-city AirlinePassenger Flows by an Algebraic Simplification[J]. Journal of Transport Geography,2004,(12):219-234.
[120]李红锦,李胜会.基于引力模型的城市群经济空间联系研究——珠三角城市群的实证研究[J].华南理工大学学报(社会科学版),2011,13(1):19-24.
[121]程大林,李侃桢,张京祥.都市圈内部联系与圈层地域界定——南京都市圈的实证研究[J].城市规划,2003,27(11):30-33.
[122]顾朝林,庞海峰.基于重力模型的中国城市体系空间联系与层域划分[J].地理研究,2008,27(1):1-12.
[123]王芳,夏丽华,张太煜.基于GIS的珠江三角洲城市群结构与空间关联研究[J].广州大学学报(自然科学版),2010,9(1):47-53.
[124]陈群元,宋玉祥.基于城市流视角的环长株潭城市群空间联系分析[J].经济地理,2011,31(11):1840-1844.
[125]钟业喜,陆玉麒.基于空间联系的城市腹地范围划分——以江苏省为例[J].地理科学,2012,32(5):536-543.
[126]高汝熹.城市圈域经济论[M].北京:科学出版社,2001．
[127]姜博,修春亮,陈才.辽中南城市群城市流分析与模型阐释[J].经济地理,2008,28(5):853-857.
[128]陈园园,李宁,丁四保.城市群空间联系能力与SOM神经网络分级研究——以辽中南城市群为例[J].地理科学,2011,31(12):1461-1467.
[129]李娜.长三角城市群空间联系与整合[J].地域研究与开发,2011,30(5):72-77.
[130]Levine, R.. International Financial Liberalization and Economic Growth [J],Review of International Economics,2001,9(4):688-702.
[131] Levine, R.. Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence [M], Aghion, P., Durlauf,S.(Eds.),Hand Book of Economic Growth, Elsevier,2004.
[132]Tobler W.R.,Lattice Tuning. Geographical Analysis[M],1997.
[133]Anselin L. Spatial data analysis with GIS: an introduction to application in thesocial sciences[M]. Santa Barbara, CA: National Center foe Geographic Information andAnalysis,1992.
[134]Anselin L. Spatial econometrics: methods and models[M]. Dordrecht: KluwerAcademic Publishers,1988.
[135]Ord J.K.,Getis A., Local Autocorrelation Statistics: Distributional Issues and anApplication[J]. Geographical Analysis,1995.27(4):286-306.
[136]Anselin L. Spatial externalities, spatial multipliers, and spatialeconometrics[J].International Regional Science Review,2003,26(2):156-166.
[137]Anselin L.,BeraA.K, Florax R., Yoon, M.J., Simple Diagnostic Tests for SpatialDependence[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics, February,1966,26(1):77-104.
[138]吴玉鸣.中国经济增长与收入分配差异的空间计量经济分析[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2005.
[139]任英华,徐玲,游万海.金融集聚影响因素空间计量模型及其应用[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2010,(5):104-115.
[140]Hastie T.,Tibshirani R., Varying Coefficient Models[J]. Journal of the RoyalStatistics,1993,18(4):162-171.
[141]Lesage J.P., A Family of Geographically Weighted Regression Models. InAdvances in Spatial Econometrics. Edited by Luc Anselin, Raymond, J.G Florax, Sen go J.Rey, Berlin: Springer-Verlag,2004:241-264.
[142]蔡碧良.我国省际劳动就业及其影响因素的空间计量分析[D].湖南大学,2009.
[143]吴玉鸣.空间计量经济模型在省域研发与创新中的应用研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究.2006,23(5):74-85,130.
[144]高远东.中国区域经济增长的空间计量研究[D].重庆大学,2010.
[145]赵儒煜,刘畅,张锋.中国人口老龄化区域溢出与分布差异的空间计量经济学研究[J].人口研究,2012,2:71-81.
[146]Le Sage, J. P., Pace, R. K. Introduction to Spatial Econometrics[M]. Boca Raton:CRC Press Taylor&Francis Group,2009:73-75.
[147]Kelejian, H. H., Prucha, I.R. A Generalized Spatial Two Stage Least SquaresProcedure for Estimating a Spatial Autoregressive Model with Autoregressive Disturbances[J]. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,1998,17(1):99-121.
[148]LeSage, J.P., Pace, R.K. Introduction to Spatial Econometrics [M]. Boca Raton:Taylor&Francis,2009.
[149]Elhorst, J.P. Handbook of Applied Spatial Analysis [M]. Berlin: Springer,2009:2-4.
[150]Baltagi, B.H. Econometric Analysis of Panel Data (3rd edn)[M]. Wiley:Chichester,2005,1-9.
[151]Elhorst, J.P. Applied Spatial Econometrics: Raising the Bar [J]. SpatialEconomic Analysis,2010,5(1):18-24.
[152]Ertur, C., Koch, W. Growth, Technological Interdependence and SpatialExternalities: Theory and Evidence [J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics,2007,22(6):1033–1062.
[153]Elhorst, J.P. Dynamic Spatial Panels: Models, Methods, and Inferences [J].Journal of Geographical Systems,2012,14(1):1-25.
[154]Anselin, L., Le Gallo, J., Jayet, H. Spatial Panel Econometrics In: Ma′tya′s L,Sevestre P (eds)//The Econometrics of Panel Data, Fundamentals and RecentDevelopments in Theory and Practice(3rd edn)[M]. Kluwer: Dordrecht,2008:625–657.
[155]Yu, J., Jong, R.De., Lee, L. Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimators for SpatialDynamic Panel Data with Fixed Effects when Both N and T are Large[J]. Journal ofEconometrics,2007,146(1):118-126.
[156]Lee, L.F., Yu, J. Efficient GMM Estimation of Spatial Dynamic Panel DataModels With Fixed Effects[J/OL].2010.www.economics.smu.edu.sg/events/Paper/LungfeiLee.pdf
[157]LeSage, J.P., Pace, R.K. Introduction to Spatial Econometrics [M]. Boca Raton:Taylor&Francis,2009:88-109.
[158]Korniotis, G.M.Estimating Panel Models with Internal and External HabitFormation[J]. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,2010,28(1):145–158.
[159]Parent, O., LeSage, J.P.A Spatial Dynamic Panel Model with Random EffectsApplied to Commuting Times[J]. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological,2010,44(5):633–645.
[160]Parent, O., LeSage, J.P.A Space-Time Filter for Panel Data Models ContainingRandom Effects[J]. Computational Statistics&Data Analysis,2011,55(1):475–490.
[161]Franzese Jr, R.J., Hays, J.C. Spatial Econometric Models of Cross-SectionalInterdependence in Political Science Panel and Time-Series-Cross-Section Data[J].Political Analysis,2007,15(2):140–164.
[162]Kukenova, M., Monteiro, J.A. Spatial Dynamic Panel Model and System GMM:a Monte Carlo Investigation [J/OL].2009, http://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/11569.html
[163]Elhorst, J.P. Dynamic Panels with Endogenous Interaction Effects when T isSmall[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2010,40(5):272–282.
[164]Jacobs, J.P.A.M., Ligthart, J.E., Vrijburg, H. Dynamic Panel Data ModelsFeaturing Endogenous Interactionand Spatially Correlated Errors[J/OL].2009.http://ideas.repec.org/p/ays/ispwps/paper0915.html
[165]Brady, R.R. Measuring the Diffusion of Housing Prices across Space and Time[J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics,2011,26(2):213–231.
[166]徐现祥,周吉梅,舒元.中国省区三次产业资本存量估计[J].统计研究,2007,(5):6-13.
[167]黄宗远,宫汝凯.中国省区物质资本存量的重估:1978—2007年[J].广西师范大学学报,2010,(1):74-80.
[168]孙辉.支大林,李宏瑾.对中国各省资本存量的估计及典型性事实:1978～2008[J].广东金融学院学报,2010,25(3):103-116.
[169]叶宗裕.中国省际资本存量估算[J].统计研究,2010,27(12):65-71.
[170]靖学青.中国省际物质资本存量估计:1952-2010[J].广东社会科学,2013,(2):46-55.
[171]单豪杰.中国资本存量K的再估算:1952-2006年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008,(10):17-31.
[172]唐志宏.中国平均利润率的估算[J].经济研究,1999,(5):61-65.
[173]Mankiw. N. G.,D. Romer and D. N. Weil. A Contribution to the Empires ofEconomic Growth[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1992,107(2):407-437.
[174]Bloom, D. E., D. Canning and J. Sevilla. The Effect of Health on EconomicGrowth: A Production Function Approach[J]. World Development,2004,32(1):1-13.
[175]Chi, W. The Role of Human Capital in China's Economic Development: Reviewand New Evidence[J], China Economic Review,2008,19:421-436.
[176]杜江,刘渝.农业经济增长因素分析:物质资本,人力资本,还是对外贸易?[J].南开经济研究,2010,(3):73-89.
[177]钱晓烨,迟巍,黎波.人力资本对我国区域创新及经济增长的影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2010,(4):107-121.
[178]王少波,黄桂然.山东、江苏两省人力资本水平评估及启示[J].中国人口资源与环境,2013,23(2):163-168.
[179]朱传耿.外商直接投资对城市发展的影响效应研究[J].中国软科学,2004,(3):111-116,129.
[180]代谦,别朝霞. FDI、人力资本积累与经济增长[J].经济研究,2006,(4):15-27.
[181]李小平,朱钟棣.国际贸易、R&D溢出和生产率增长[J].经济研究,2006,(2):31-43.
[182]冯志军,陈伟.技术来源与研发创新全要素生产率增长——基于中国区域大中型工业企业的实证研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2013,34(3):33-41.
[183]卢方元,靳丹丹.我国R&D投入对经济增长的影响——基于面板数据的实证分析[J],2011,(3):149-157.
[184]刘小玄.中国转型经济中的产权结构和市场结构[J].经济研究,2003,(1):56-58.
[185]刘海英,张纯洪.非国有经济发展对中国经济增长质量影响机理研究——来自VEC模型的新证据[J].经济学家,2007,(6):63-70.
[186]刘宇春,景维民.中国转型期投资效率下降的所有制结构解析[J].南开经济研究,2011,(1):15-23.
[187]Zhang X B,Kanbur R. What Difference Do Polarization Measures Make? AnApplication to China[J]. Journal of Development Studies,2001,37(31):85-98.
[188]Esteban J. E., Ray D. On the Measurement of Polarization[J]. Econometrica,1994,62(4):819-851.
[189]Michael C, Wolfson. Conceptual Issues in Normative Measurement: WhenInequalities Diverge[J]. American Economic Review,1994,84(2):353-358.
[190]Boarnet M G. Spillovers and the Locational Effects of Public Infrastructure[J].Journal of Regional Science,1998,38(3):381-400.
[191]马国霞,田玉军,石勇.京津冀都市圈经济增长的空间极化及其模拟研究[J].经济地理,2010,30(2):177-182.
[192]郭腾云,董冠鹏,孙威.规模报酬递增与京津冀都市区经济增长[J].地理研究,2011,30(10):1873-1881.
[193]林毅夫,蔡昉,李周.中国经济转型时期的地区差距分析[J].经济研究,1998,(6):3-10.
[194]任崇强,宗跃光,王燕军.京津冀地区产业结构和竞争力空间分异研究[J].地域研究与开发,2012,31(3):1-5.
[195]顾朝林.中国城镇体系:历史现状展望[M].北京:商务印书馆,1992.
[196]Fujita M, Morit T. Structural stability and evolution of urban systems[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,1997,27(4-5):399-442.
[197]Bonfig L A, Cosmi C A. GIS application for regional planning. GIS Tech. andTheir Environ.Appl. GIS’98[C].1998:231-240.
[198]Ertur C, Le Gallo J, BaumontC. The European Regional Convergence Process,1980-1995: Do Spatial Dependence and SpatialHeterogeneityMatter?[J]. InternationalRegional Science Review,2006,29:2-34.
[199]孙贵艳,王传胜,肖磊等.长江三角洲城市群城镇体系演化时空特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2011,20(6):641-649.
[200]朱翔.洞庭湖区城镇体系建设研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,1999,8(3):236-242.
[201]刘雪,刁承泰,黄娟.江津市城镇体系结构研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2007,16(3):284-288.
[202]王茂军,张学霞,齐元静.近50年来山东城市体系的演化过程:基于城市中心性的分析[J].地理研究,2005,24(3):432-442.
[203]周一星.城市地理学[M].北京:商务印书馆,1995.
[204]高翔,鱼腾飞,程慧波.城镇体系结构及与城市化的耦合机制:以西陇海兰新经济带甘肃段为例[J].地理科学进展,2009,28(9):744-750.
[205]董冠鹏,郭腾云,马静.京津冀都市区经济增长空间分异的GIS分析[J].地球信息科学学报,2010,12(6):797-805.
[206]Kelejian HH, Prucha IR. Specification and estimation of spatial autoregressivemodels with autoregressive and heteroskedastic disturbances[J]. Journal of Econometrics,2010:157(1):53–67.
[207]Pesaran MH, Tosetti E. Large panels with common factors and spatial correlation.Journal of Econometrics,2011,161(2):182–202.
[208]Hall P.. Toward a General Urban Theory. In J. Brotchic, M. Batty,Blackely,P.Hall,＆P. Newton. Cities in Competition: productive and sustainable cities for21st century,Melbourne: Longman Austealia.1995,3-31.
[209]姚士谋等.我国城市群区战略规划的关键问题[J].经济地理,2008,28(4):529-534.
[210]樊杰.京津冀城市群区域综合规划研究[M].科学出版社,2008.
[211]高素英,郝晓华,刘建朝等.滨海新区城市进化评价研究[J].天津大学学报(社会科学版),2013.15(1):15-20.
[212]张艳,程遥,刘婧.中心城市发展与城市群产业整合——以郑州及中原城市群为例[J].经济地理,2010,30(4):579-584.
[213]Theodore Tsekeris, Nikolas Geroliminis. City size, network structure and trafficcongestion[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,2013,76:1-14.
[214]Yoshitsugu Kanemoto. Second-best cost–benefit analysis in monopolisticcompetition models of urban agglomeration[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,2013,76:83-92.
[215]Hans R.A. Koster, Jan Rouwendal. Agglomeration, commuting costs, and theinternal structure of cities[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2013,43:352-366.
[216]Dongya Li a, Yi Lu b, Mingqin Wu. Industrial agglomeration and firm size:Evidence from China[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2012,42:135-143.
[217]Kiyohiro Ikeda, Takashi Akamatsu, Tatsuhito Kono. Spatial period-doublingagglomeration of acore–periphery model with a system of cities[J]. Journal of EconomicDynamics&Control,2012,36:754-778.
[218]Joshua Drucker, Edward Feser. Regional industrial structure and agglomerationeconomies: An analysis of productivity in three manufacturing industries[J]. RegionalScience and Urban Economics,2012,42:1-14.
[219]Stuart A. Gabriel, Stuart S. Rosenthal. Urbanization, agglomeration economies,and access to mortgage credit[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2013,43:42-50.
[220]Chery LONG, Xiaobo ZHANG. Patterns of China's industrialization:Concentration, specialization, and clustering[J]. China Economic Review,2012,23:593-612.
[221]Ling PENG, Yongmiao HONG. Productivity spillovers among linked sectors[J].China Economic Review,2013,25:44-61.
[222]Masahisa Fujita. Thünen and the New Economic Geography[J]. RegionalScience and Urban Economics,2012,42:907-912.
[223]Mark Roberts, Uwe Deichmann, Bernard Fingleton a, Tuo Shi. EvaluatingChina's road to prosperity: A new economic geography approach[J]. Regional Science andUrban Economics,2012,42:580-594.
[224]Hiroki Kondo. International R&D subsidy competition, industrial agglomerationand growth[J]. Journal of International Economics,2013,89:233-251.
[225]Steven Brakman, Charles van Marrewijk. Lumpy countries, urbanization, andtrade[J]. Journal of International Economics,2013,89:252-261.
[226]David Cuberes. Sequential city growth: Empirical evidence[J]. Journal ofUrban Economics,2011,69:229-239.
[227]Maarten Bosker, Steven Brakman, Harry Garretsen, Marc Schramm. RelaxingHukou: Increased labor mobility and China’s economic geography[J]. Journal of UrbanEconomics,2012,72:252-266.
[228]高素英,胡丹,刘建朝等.京津冀高新技术产业协同创新研究[J].河北工业大学学报,2011,40(6):107-112.
[229]张亚斌,张敏敏.中心外围理论与3+5城市群圈层发展模式设计[J].湖南大学学报(社会科学版),2010,24(2):156-162.
[230]张淑莲,高素英,刘建朝.京津冀医药制造业产业协同的实证研究[J].河北经贸大学学报,2011,5(32):87-92.
[231]方创琳,蔺雪芹.武汉城市群的空间整合与产业合理化组织[J].地理研究,2008,27(2):397-408.
[232]刘建朝,高素英.基于城市联系强度与城市流的京津冀城市群空间联系研究[J].地域研究与开发,2013,32(2):57-61.
[233]师谦友,郭华.区域一体化背景下关中空间整合研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2007,23(5):77-82.
[234]汤放华,陈立立,曾志伟等.城市群空间结构演化趋势与空间重构——以长株潭城市群为例[J].城市发展研究,2010,17(3):65-71.
[235]李红,张平宇,刘文新.基于新区域主义的城市群制度整合研究——以辽宁中部城市群为例[J].地域研究与开发,2010,29(5):45-51.
[236]高素英,杨丽芸,王竞等.滨海新区与环渤海地区经济增长互动效应研究—基于VAR模型的脉冲影响分析[J].天津大学学报(社会科学版),2010(4):338-342.
[237]Huasheng Song, Jacques-Fran ois Thisse, Xiwei Zhu. Urbanization and/or ruralindustrialization in China[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2012,42:126-134.
[238]Marcus Berliant, Chia-Ming Yu. Rational expectations in urban economics[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,2013,43:197-208.
[239] Jordan W. Smith, Myron, Floy. The urban growth machine, central place theoryand access to open space[J]. City, Culture and Society,2013,(4):87-98.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |