中国跨区域资本流动：理论分析与实证研究
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摘要
一国内部资本的空间流动,是提高要素配置效率的基础与前提。改革开放以来,随着我国经济体制由计划经济向市场经济体制转型,市场在资源配置中发挥着越来越大的作用,资本在中国各地区之间的流动成了资源配置市场化的重要内涵之一。与此同时,资本在区域之间配置的巨大差异,不仅源自各区域内部资本形成率差异,而且源自跨区域资本流动差异。而资本跨区域流动也是导致各主要区域之间经济差异的一个重要原因。本文主旨,就在于对中国跨区域资本流动现象进行一个系统性考察,探讨跨区域资本流动的一般机理,阐释资本要素跨区域流动的原因和作用,揭示它的空间流动规律。这样一种考察的理论意义,在于按照主流经济学分析框架给予转型经济背景下的中国内部资本跨区域流动以理论解释,由此可望在区域经济/空间经济学和转型发展理论研究的交叉领域获得一定突破;其现实意义在于科学地认识这一现象,为各级政府制定相关政策措施提供参考依据。
本文在对现有研究成果进行梳理的基础上,首先分析我国跨区域资本流动现状与格局,然后应用新经济地理学研究方法,建立跨区域资本流动的模型,在此基础上,探讨跨区域资本流动的一般机理。应用模型和机理,实证研究我国跨区域资本流动,并用计量经济学的方法进行实证检验。
本文主要采用规范分析和实证分析的方法,且以实证分析为主。具体研究方法不少于三种:一是数理模型,二是计量检验,三是历史和理论、数据和事实相结合的方法。
本文认为,我国跨区域资本流动可分为政府主导型和市场主导型。政府主导型跨区域资本流动是为实现政府政治经济目标服务的。当政府奉行效率优先原则时,政府主导型资本多流向经济相对发达地区;当政府奉行公平优先原则时,则多流向相对欠发达地区。
市场主导型跨区域资本流动的根本动因是逐利和避险。根据新经济地理学研究方法构建的一个两地区跨区域资本流动模型解析式明确地表达了一个地区对资本的两种作用力:一个地区的市场空间对资本产生的是聚集力,企业的空间分布对资本产生排斥力。当两种作用力不平衡时,就会产生资本的区际流动。
由于在一国境内,劳动力流动相对比较自由,因此,资本流动会引致劳动力流动,从而产生循环累积因果过程,导致资本和劳动力进一步向资本收益率高的地区流动,直到该地区拥挤效应产生的排斥力等于该地区聚集力止。
我国跨区域资本流动是政府主导型与市场主导型共同流动的结果,由于市场主导型跨区域流动的资本规模一般要大于政府主导型的,因此,资本最终的流向由市场主导型流向决定。
利用F-H模型,本文对我国资本跨区域流动性程度进行了计量检验。现有的计量检验都是在国家层次展开的。在现有研究的基础上,本文深入到区域层次,首次从我国三大区域层次检验了每个大区域同其它区域省际资本流动性程度,结果表明,我国西部与其它区域省际资本的流动性最好,东部最差。这种流动性计量检验结果,也实证了中国过去二十多年三大区域的资本流动格局是从中西部流向东部。理论分析表明,这种流动格局扩大了我国地区间的经济差距。根据理论分析模型建立的计量方程实证检验的结果,支持了这个理论分析结论。
The spatial flow and relocation of the capital in an economy is one of the basic and pre-conditions to improve the efficiency of the factor allocation. The market has been playing the more and more important role in resource allocation along with the market oriented reform and opening up of China. Inter-regional capital flow has become one of the major important intension of marketing resources in China. At the same time, the wide difference of capital allocation between all regions is caused by both the difference of regional capital formation rate and the difference of inter-regional capital flow. This inter-regional capital flow is also a major factor of economic differences among all the main regional economies. Based on the overall research of phenomena of inter-regional capital flow, this paper is to explore the general mechanism of inter-regional capital flow in China, to explain the causes and effects of cross-regional flow of capital factors, and to reveal its rules of inter-regional flow. The theoretical meaning of this research is to give an explanation to inter-regional capital flow in China according to the theories of main-stream of economics, then, the author wish to make some progress on the crossing field of Regional Economics, New Economic Geography and Transition Developing Theory research. While its practical meaning is to get a scientific understanding as valuable references for governments on making relevant policies.
Based on reviewing research findings, we analyze the status quo and situation of inter-regional capital flow in China, then build a model to research its mechanism by means of methods of New Economic Geography, then research its universality mechanism. Applying the model and the mechanism, we research the phenomena of inter-regional capital flow in China by means of empirical study.
The normative and positive analysis methods are applied, and the latter is mainly used. The specific research methods applied are Mathematical Model, Econometric Tests, the combined method of history vs. theory and data vs. fact, and etc.
Capital flows across regions in China can be divided into two types: government-oriented and market-oriented. Government-oriented capital flows is served for the governments' political and economic goals. When the government pursues the efficiency-priority principle, government-oriented capital flows to relatively well-developed areas more. As the government pursues the equity-priority principle, the capital flows to relatively underdeveloped areas more.
The basic motivation of market-oriented capital flows is to pursue benefit and to avoid risk. A model of inter-regional capital flow which is built by means of the methods of New Economic Geography clearly show this: two kind of forces applied to capital exist in one area, one is gathering-force oriented by market space in the area, another is repulsive-force oriented by the quantity of capital usage. If one force is not equal to another, inter-regional capital flow is being.
The labor mobility in domestic is comparatively free, so the capital flow will cause the labor mobility, and then there will be a process of circulative accumulation and dynamic causality, which leads the capital and labor flow to the area where there is higher return on capital, until the repulsive-force originated from the overcrowding effect is equaled with the gathering power in area.
The inter-regional capital flow in China is composed of government-oriented and market-oriented. The scale of capital flow government-oriented is less the one of market-oriented, so the direction of flow is decided by the market-oriented.
By means of the model of F-H, Econometric Tests on the degree of liquidity of capital flows across provinces in China have been conducted. Based on the existing research at the national level, this paper goes further to do so firstly at the level of the three regions in China. The results show that the degree of liquidity of capital flows across provinces between the western and other regions is the highest, and is the lowest between the eastern and other regions. The results of the econometric tests also demonstrate that the capital flow pattern in past twenty years or more in China is flowing from the middle and western to the eastern region. This flow pattern enlarges the gap of the three regions in China, and the conclusion is validated by Econometric
Test which is based on a model built in fourth chapter of the paper.
本文在对现有研究成果进行梳理的基础上,首先分析我国跨区域资本流动现状与格局,然后应用新经济地理学研究方法,建立跨区域资本流动的模型,在此基础上,探讨跨区域资本流动的一般机理。应用模型和机理,实证研究我国跨区域资本流动,并用计量经济学的方法进行实证检验。
本文主要采用规范分析和实证分析的方法,且以实证分析为主。具体研究方法不少于三种:一是数理模型,二是计量检验,三是历史和理论、数据和事实相结合的方法。
本文认为,我国跨区域资本流动可分为政府主导型和市场主导型。政府主导型跨区域资本流动是为实现政府政治经济目标服务的。当政府奉行效率优先原则时,政府主导型资本多流向经济相对发达地区;当政府奉行公平优先原则时,则多流向相对欠发达地区。
市场主导型跨区域资本流动的根本动因是逐利和避险。根据新经济地理学研究方法构建的一个两地区跨区域资本流动模型解析式明确地表达了一个地区对资本的两种作用力:一个地区的市场空间对资本产生的是聚集力,企业的空间分布对资本产生排斥力。当两种作用力不平衡时,就会产生资本的区际流动。
由于在一国境内,劳动力流动相对比较自由,因此,资本流动会引致劳动力流动,从而产生循环累积因果过程,导致资本和劳动力进一步向资本收益率高的地区流动,直到该地区拥挤效应产生的排斥力等于该地区聚集力止。
我国跨区域资本流动是政府主导型与市场主导型共同流动的结果,由于市场主导型跨区域流动的资本规模一般要大于政府主导型的,因此,资本最终的流向由市场主导型流向决定。
利用F-H模型,本文对我国资本跨区域流动性程度进行了计量检验。现有的计量检验都是在国家层次展开的。在现有研究的基础上,本文深入到区域层次,首次从我国三大区域层次检验了每个大区域同其它区域省际资本流动性程度,结果表明,我国西部与其它区域省际资本的流动性最好,东部最差。这种流动性计量检验结果,也实证了中国过去二十多年三大区域的资本流动格局是从中西部流向东部。理论分析表明,这种流动格局扩大了我国地区间的经济差距。根据理论分析模型建立的计量方程实证检验的结果,支持了这个理论分析结论。
The spatial flow and relocation of the capital in an economy is one of the basic and pre-conditions to improve the efficiency of the factor allocation. The market has been playing the more and more important role in resource allocation along with the market oriented reform and opening up of China. Inter-regional capital flow has become one of the major important intension of marketing resources in China. At the same time, the wide difference of capital allocation between all regions is caused by both the difference of regional capital formation rate and the difference of inter-regional capital flow. This inter-regional capital flow is also a major factor of economic differences among all the main regional economies. Based on the overall research of phenomena of inter-regional capital flow, this paper is to explore the general mechanism of inter-regional capital flow in China, to explain the causes and effects of cross-regional flow of capital factors, and to reveal its rules of inter-regional flow. The theoretical meaning of this research is to give an explanation to inter-regional capital flow in China according to the theories of main-stream of economics, then, the author wish to make some progress on the crossing field of Regional Economics, New Economic Geography and Transition Developing Theory research. While its practical meaning is to get a scientific understanding as valuable references for governments on making relevant policies.
Based on reviewing research findings, we analyze the status quo and situation of inter-regional capital flow in China, then build a model to research its mechanism by means of methods of New Economic Geography, then research its universality mechanism. Applying the model and the mechanism, we research the phenomena of inter-regional capital flow in China by means of empirical study.
The normative and positive analysis methods are applied, and the latter is mainly used. The specific research methods applied are Mathematical Model, Econometric Tests, the combined method of history vs. theory and data vs. fact, and etc.
Capital flows across regions in China can be divided into two types: government-oriented and market-oriented. Government-oriented capital flows is served for the governments' political and economic goals. When the government pursues the efficiency-priority principle, government-oriented capital flows to relatively well-developed areas more. As the government pursues the equity-priority principle, the capital flows to relatively underdeveloped areas more.
The basic motivation of market-oriented capital flows is to pursue benefit and to avoid risk. A model of inter-regional capital flow which is built by means of the methods of New Economic Geography clearly show this: two kind of forces applied to capital exist in one area, one is gathering-force oriented by market space in the area, another is repulsive-force oriented by the quantity of capital usage. If one force is not equal to another, inter-regional capital flow is being.
The labor mobility in domestic is comparatively free, so the capital flow will cause the labor mobility, and then there will be a process of circulative accumulation and dynamic causality, which leads the capital and labor flow to the area where there is higher return on capital, until the repulsive-force originated from the overcrowding effect is equaled with the gathering power in area.
The inter-regional capital flow in China is composed of government-oriented and market-oriented. The scale of capital flow government-oriented is less the one of market-oriented, so the direction of flow is decided by the market-oriented.
By means of the model of F-H, Econometric Tests on the degree of liquidity of capital flows across provinces in China have been conducted. Based on the existing research at the national level, this paper goes further to do so firstly at the level of the three regions in China. The results show that the degree of liquidity of capital flows across provinces between the western and other regions is the highest, and is the lowest between the eastern and other regions. The results of the econometric tests also demonstrate that the capital flow pattern in past twenty years or more in China is flowing from the middle and western to the eastern region. This flow pattern enlarges the gap of the three regions in China, and the conclusion is validated by Econometric
Test which is based on a model built in fourth chapter of the paper.
引文
[1]2006年第15期《中国经济周刊》封面文章《为浙江民间资本辩护》。
[1]赫寿义、安虎森.区域经济学[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1999:第1-2页.
[2]安虎森.区域经济学通论[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2004:第3页.
[1]Edgar M.Hoover & Frank Gianatani.An Introduction to Regional Economics[M].Alfred A.Knopf,1984,P.243.
[2]Edgar M.Hoover & Frank Giarratani.An Introduction to Regional Economics[M].Alfred A.Knopf,1984,E 264.
[1]详见国家统计局网站网页http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjzs/tjcs/t20030812_97125.htm.
[2]在中国的经济转型过程中,这两种导向的资本流动有时搅在一起,难以截然分开.虽然政府导向的资本流动主要受政府宏观政策与区域政策左右,但通过这个系统配置的资本通过区域与地方政府和银行运作,部分流入市场导向系统,发生跨区域重新配置(赵伟等,2005).但理论上,把这二种导向的跨区域资本流动分开进行研究却是必须的.
[1]彼德·尼茨坎普主编,安虎森等译:《区域和城市经济学手册》第一卷,经济科学出版社2001年版,第19页.
[2]赫寿义、安虎森.区域经济学[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1999:第10页.
[1]安虎森主编《(空间经济学教程》,经济科学出版社,2006.第1页。
[2]赵伟教授将footloose capital model译为游走型资本模型(赵伟等,2005),但很多人将其译为自由资本模型.英文footloose是自由自在的、到处走动的意思.而模型中的footloose capital,是指可在空间自由流动的资本.相对来说,赵教授的翻译把空间的含义翻译出来了,而自由资本的译法没有这含义,且容易让人误解成是free capital的翻译,因此,赵教授的译法更准确。本文采用赵教授的译法.
[3]Pasquale Commendatore,MartinL Currie and Ingrid Kubin(2005)将连续时间FC模型改进为不连续时间FC 模型.
[1]这种方式也是其他研究者采用的,参见郭金龙、王宏伟(2003)和赵伟等著(2005).
[2]此差额为正,表示获得中央财政补贴:为负,表示上缴中央财政;但并不等于中央对地方的实际财政补贴(魏后凯,1997).
[1]消息来源:中国广播网.引自http://www.chinaccm.com 2006-6-27
[2]上海证券报2007-04-20
[3]新华网2003-11-23
[4]引自网页http://gqfz.pSw.net/gqfz/finalpage/2006-09-14/18307635.html.
[5]数据来源:新华每日电讯6版2006-06-13,原标题:浙商万亿“蛋糕”分切何处:哪里好哪里当家乡.这份淅商投资分布图是根据在各地的20多个省外浙江商会的汇总和抽样调查得来的。显然,各种来源的数据相差较大,但我国民间跨区域直接投资所引发的资本跨区域流动规模较大也是不争的事实.
[1]裘立华、胡作华.浙江千亿民资抢滩西部.西部论丛,2005(7),第11页.
[2]贵州省政府招商引资信息网网页,http://www.investgz.gov.cn/showarticle.asp?articleid=628.
[3]长沙晚报网络版,记者唐薇频.2006-11-22 16:19:35
[1]王一鸣.中国区域经济政策研究.北京:中国计划出版社,1998,第78页。
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[2]赵伟教授将footloose capital model译为游走型资本模型(赵伟等,2005),但很多人将其译为自由资本模型.英文footloose是自由自在的、到处走动的意思.而模型中的footloose capital,是指可在空间自由流动的资本.相对来说,赵教授的翻译把空间的含义翻译出来了,而自由资本的译法没有这含义,且容易让人误解成是free capital的翻译,因此,赵教授的译法更准确。本文采用赵教授的译法.
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[1]这种方式也是其他研究者采用的,参见郭金龙、王宏伟(2003)和赵伟等著(2005).
[2]此差额为正,表示获得中央财政补贴:为负,表示上缴中央财政;但并不等于中央对地方的实际财政补贴(魏后凯,1997).
[1]消息来源:中国广播网.引自http://www.chinaccm.com 2006-6-27
[2]上海证券报2007-04-20
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[4]引自网页http://gqfz.pSw.net/gqfz/finalpage/2006-09-14/18307635.html.
[5]数据来源:新华每日电讯6版2006-06-13,原标题:浙商万亿“蛋糕”分切何处:哪里好哪里当家乡.这份淅商投资分布图是根据在各地的20多个省外浙江商会的汇总和抽样调查得来的。显然,各种来源的数据相差较大,但我国民间跨区域直接投资所引发的资本跨区域流动规模较大也是不争的事实.
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