城市快速道路车辆跟驰模型研究
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摘要
本文以构造能够准确反映我国城市快速道路上实际交通流跟车特性的车辆跟驰模型为最终目标。车辆跟驰理论是指一条车道的交通流中，车间距小于125米的车辆之间存在着一种可以定量描述的相互影响关系，后车的司机跟随前车行进，凭借感知能力、判断能力和控制能力，对前车一系列连续的刺激有规律地做出反应。
车辆跟驰理论作为最基础的交通流理论分支，国外在这方面的研究已经持续了半个多世纪，尽管现有的许多跟车模型已经应用于实践，但由于每个模型都存在或多或少的不足，以及各地交通流特性的差异，导致目前尚未有被普遍接受的跟车模型。随着智能交通系统(ITS)正蓬勃展开，司机行为和车辆运行特征是构建智能交通系统的基础。本研究选择了具有重要政治经济意义、实践中普遍关注的高速公路和城市快速路作为研究对象，针对高速公路和快速路中的车辆跟驰理论展开研究。从微观角度研究司机、车辆在快速路中的行为特征。其成果将为防止车辆追尾事故、构建智能交通系统、实现交通仿真和估算通行能力提供理论基础。
文章在认真分析国内外车辆跟驰理论领域研究的基础上，综合评述已有的成果，发现已有的研究缺乏描述跟车行为的时间序列数据，针对跟车模型存在的问题，选定研究的突破方向为：无人为干扰的高精度车辆跟驰实测数据采集方法、在实测数据基础上，定性与定量相结合，确定快速路车辆行驶状态指标及其种类划分的方法、建立随机性与规律性相统一的车辆跟驰模型。确定了从“实际应用出发、依靠高新设备采集跟车数据，运用科学的理论方法，结合计算机仿真技术”的研究思路和技术路线。
文章通过分析和试验建立了基于GPS的实时动态车辆跟驰数据采集方法，较好的解决跟车状态下司机行为和车辆运行特征的时间序列实测数据的采集问题。并据此制定了详尽的数据采集方案，采集了大量真实反映我国城市快速道路交通条件特性的车辆跟驰数据，经过数据的有效性检验，为真实反映我国城市快速道路交通条件特性的车辆跟驰模型的研究提供坚实的数据支持。
文章从分析城市快速道路跟车行为入手，利用李雅普诺夫特征指数，定性与定量相结合，讨论了跟驰车队中的混沌特性。运用混沌动力学，构造了以时滞微分方程为基础的稳定跟车状态下的跟车模型。
文章以平均加速度为指标，利用动态聚类的方法，把城市快速道路交通流中的跟车行为划分为三种状态进行讨论，即起动加速跟车状态、稳定跟车状态、减速停车跟车状态。利用在特定的交通条件和道路条件下获得的跟车数据，针对起动加速跟车状态和减速停车跟车状态，得到这两种状态司机反应时间的规律。分
摘要
别分析了三种状态车头间距和车头时距的变化规律，得到了车头间距和车头时距
与后车速度之间的统计模型。验证了稳定跟车状态存在期望车头间距，实测数据
显示，期望车头间距受车速的影响，并获得了特定交通条件和道路条件下不同速
度所对应的期望车头间距。利用实测数据验证了稳定跟车状态存在的振荡过程。
发现我国城市快速道路交通流中稳定跟车状态下，后车司机所采取的加速度与相
对速度呈明显的线性正比例关系；与车头间距呈明显的非线性反比例关系。
文章根据加速度与相对速度、车头间距、期望车头间距之间的规律标定了城
市快速道路的跟车模型。利用仿真试验对基于混饨动力学的跟车模型进行了定性
验证，验证结果显示，该模型具有有效跟车模型应具备的渐进稳定性、非对称性、
以及目标与偏移等特性。同时利用实测数据对该模型和 Greenshields模型、
Greenberg模型进行了定量预测误差分析，分析结果显示基于混池动力学的跟车
模型有比较高的预测精度。最后利用该模型求解出更接近于实际的通行能力值。
The ultimately object of this dissertation lies in constructing a car-following model which can well and truly reflect the traffic flow characteristics in urban expressway in Beijing. Car following models of single lane traffic assume that there is a correlation between in a range of inter-vehicle spacing, from zero to about 100 to 125 meters and provides an explicit form for this coupling. The modeling assumes that each driver in a following vehicle is an active and predictable control element in the driver-vehicle-road system. These tasks are termed psychomotor skills or perceptual-motor skills because they require a continued motor response to a continuous series of stimuli.
Car-following theory, is one of the basal traffic flow theory, has being researched since 1950's in the world. Although many models had been put into practice, because of existing defect in each model, and difference of local traffic flow characteristics, there was not one model can be accepted widely. Now with the development of ITS, the characteristics of driver behavior and car operation become the base of constructing ITS. The freeway and expressway which have important political and economic purport and were pay attention in practice were selected as the research objects of this dissertation, aiming at car-following model in freeway and expressway, the research were developed from micro characteristics of driver and car. The collusion of research can be used to avoid collision, to construct ITS, to make
simulation and estimate capacity.
On the basis of reviewing the field in car following in the world, the disadvantage of time series data of car following in existing research was found in this dissertation. The direction of research breakthrough were: high precision car following field data collecting methodology without jamming, the index and methodology of classing the car following phase in expressway, constructing car following model uniform with randomicity and orderliness, train of thoughts and technology route were: starting off practice, depending on high precision instrument to collect car following data, exercising scientific theory methodology, combining with computer simulation.
Dynamic car-following behavioral data collection method using the instrumented GPS vehicle was built in this paper. The collection method of time serial car-following behavioral data that puzzled lots of researcher many years was described in this paper. The qualitative and quantitative analyses of chaotic behavior in car-following fleet were described in this paper. On the basis of microcosmic and qualitative analysis of stimulation-reaction process and assembled human-car unit in car-following fleet, the inscrutability, inseparability and regularity that were necessary conditions of coming into being chaotic behavior were discussed. Then, the two mathematic simulation experimentations with speed disturbance were designed, and Liapunov exponents of car-following fleet were calculated. The variation trajectory of Liapunov exponents of car-following fleet and the variation orderliness of average speed, average headway and average space on steady condition were discussed. The inscrutability, regularity and chaos of car-following fleet were quantificationally described. The chaotic behavior of car-following fleet were validated. On the basis of time lag differential equation, the car following model were constructed.
Using average acceleration index, the car following behavior were classed three phases with dynamic classing methodology, start acceleration car following phase, stable car following phase, and deceleration brake phase. According to car following data under special traffic and road condition, rule of driver reflect time were gain in start acceleration car following phase and deceleration brake phase. The change rule between headway and space headway of three phases were analysis, and the statistic model of headway and space headway with following car speed were gain. The expectation space headway in different speed under
车辆跟驰理论作为最基础的交通流理论分支，国外在这方面的研究已经持续了半个多世纪，尽管现有的许多跟车模型已经应用于实践，但由于每个模型都存在或多或少的不足，以及各地交通流特性的差异，导致目前尚未有被普遍接受的跟车模型。随着智能交通系统(ITS)正蓬勃展开，司机行为和车辆运行特征是构建智能交通系统的基础。本研究选择了具有重要政治经济意义、实践中普遍关注的高速公路和城市快速路作为研究对象，针对高速公路和快速路中的车辆跟驰理论展开研究。从微观角度研究司机、车辆在快速路中的行为特征。其成果将为防止车辆追尾事故、构建智能交通系统、实现交通仿真和估算通行能力提供理论基础。
文章在认真分析国内外车辆跟驰理论领域研究的基础上，综合评述已有的成果，发现已有的研究缺乏描述跟车行为的时间序列数据，针对跟车模型存在的问题，选定研究的突破方向为：无人为干扰的高精度车辆跟驰实测数据采集方法、在实测数据基础上，定性与定量相结合，确定快速路车辆行驶状态指标及其种类划分的方法、建立随机性与规律性相统一的车辆跟驰模型。确定了从“实际应用出发、依靠高新设备采集跟车数据，运用科学的理论方法，结合计算机仿真技术”的研究思路和技术路线。
文章通过分析和试验建立了基于GPS的实时动态车辆跟驰数据采集方法，较好的解决跟车状态下司机行为和车辆运行特征的时间序列实测数据的采集问题。并据此制定了详尽的数据采集方案，采集了大量真实反映我国城市快速道路交通条件特性的车辆跟驰数据，经过数据的有效性检验，为真实反映我国城市快速道路交通条件特性的车辆跟驰模型的研究提供坚实的数据支持。
文章从分析城市快速道路跟车行为入手，利用李雅普诺夫特征指数，定性与定量相结合，讨论了跟驰车队中的混沌特性。运用混沌动力学，构造了以时滞微分方程为基础的稳定跟车状态下的跟车模型。
文章以平均加速度为指标，利用动态聚类的方法，把城市快速道路交通流中的跟车行为划分为三种状态进行讨论，即起动加速跟车状态、稳定跟车状态、减速停车跟车状态。利用在特定的交通条件和道路条件下获得的跟车数据，针对起动加速跟车状态和减速停车跟车状态，得到这两种状态司机反应时间的规律。分
摘要
别分析了三种状态车头间距和车头时距的变化规律，得到了车头间距和车头时距
与后车速度之间的统计模型。验证了稳定跟车状态存在期望车头间距，实测数据
显示，期望车头间距受车速的影响，并获得了特定交通条件和道路条件下不同速
度所对应的期望车头间距。利用实测数据验证了稳定跟车状态存在的振荡过程。
发现我国城市快速道路交通流中稳定跟车状态下，后车司机所采取的加速度与相
对速度呈明显的线性正比例关系；与车头间距呈明显的非线性反比例关系。
文章根据加速度与相对速度、车头间距、期望车头间距之间的规律标定了城
市快速道路的跟车模型。利用仿真试验对基于混饨动力学的跟车模型进行了定性
验证，验证结果显示，该模型具有有效跟车模型应具备的渐进稳定性、非对称性、
以及目标与偏移等特性。同时利用实测数据对该模型和 Greenshields模型、
Greenberg模型进行了定量预测误差分析，分析结果显示基于混池动力学的跟车
模型有比较高的预测精度。最后利用该模型求解出更接近于实际的通行能力值。
The ultimately object of this dissertation lies in constructing a car-following model which can well and truly reflect the traffic flow characteristics in urban expressway in Beijing. Car following models of single lane traffic assume that there is a correlation between in a range of inter-vehicle spacing, from zero to about 100 to 125 meters and provides an explicit form for this coupling. The modeling assumes that each driver in a following vehicle is an active and predictable control element in the driver-vehicle-road system. These tasks are termed psychomotor skills or perceptual-motor skills because they require a continued motor response to a continuous series of stimuli.
Car-following theory, is one of the basal traffic flow theory, has being researched since 1950's in the world. Although many models had been put into practice, because of existing defect in each model, and difference of local traffic flow characteristics, there was not one model can be accepted widely. Now with the development of ITS, the characteristics of driver behavior and car operation become the base of constructing ITS. The freeway and expressway which have important political and economic purport and were pay attention in practice were selected as the research objects of this dissertation, aiming at car-following model in freeway and expressway, the research were developed from micro characteristics of driver and car. The collusion of research can be used to avoid collision, to construct ITS, to make
simulation and estimate capacity.
On the basis of reviewing the field in car following in the world, the disadvantage of time series data of car following in existing research was found in this dissertation. The direction of research breakthrough were: high precision car following field data collecting methodology without jamming, the index and methodology of classing the car following phase in expressway, constructing car following model uniform with randomicity and orderliness, train of thoughts and technology route were: starting off practice, depending on high precision instrument to collect car following data, exercising scientific theory methodology, combining with computer simulation.
Dynamic car-following behavioral data collection method using the instrumented GPS vehicle was built in this paper. The collection method of time serial car-following behavioral data that puzzled lots of researcher many years was described in this paper. The qualitative and quantitative analyses of chaotic behavior in car-following fleet were described in this paper. On the basis of microcosmic and qualitative analysis of stimulation-reaction process and assembled human-car unit in car-following fleet, the inscrutability, inseparability and regularity that were necessary conditions of coming into being chaotic behavior were discussed. Then, the two mathematic simulation experimentations with speed disturbance were designed, and Liapunov exponents of car-following fleet were calculated. The variation trajectory of Liapunov exponents of car-following fleet and the variation orderliness of average speed, average headway and average space on steady condition were discussed. The inscrutability, regularity and chaos of car-following fleet were quantificationally described. The chaotic behavior of car-following fleet were validated. On the basis of time lag differential equation, the car following model were constructed.
Using average acceleration index, the car following behavior were classed three phases with dynamic classing methodology, start acceleration car following phase, stable car following phase, and deceleration brake phase. According to car following data under special traffic and road condition, rule of driver reflect time were gain in start acceleration car following phase and deceleration brake phase. The change rule between headway and space headway of three phases were analysis, and the statistic model of headway and space headway with following car speed were gain. The expectation space headway in different speed under
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