BOT在哈尔滨绕城高速公路东北段上的应用及对策研究
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摘要
高速公路是支撑国民经济持续、稳定、健康发展的重要基础设施之一,随着我国经济建设的不断发展,现有的基础设施建设水平很难与经济发展要求相适应,其中高速公路的建设相对滞后尤其突出,在全国基础设施建设资金供求矛盾难以缓解之刻,BOT(Build-Operate-Transfer)融资模式在高速公路建设中应用可以为我们提供一种新的资金解决途径。
本文以黑龙江省高速公路项目融资为背景,研究了目前存在于国内外的多种融资方式,其中包括银行贷款、债券融资和股票融资、BOT、ABS(Asset-Backed-Securitization)以及产业投资基金。通过对各种融资模式的利弊分析并结合黑龙江省当前的实际情况,在总结了国内外BOT项目的实践成功经验的基础上,确定适合哈尔滨绕城高速公路东北段项目建设的融资模式—BOT融资模式。
通过运用公路建设项目经济评价办法,分析和测算本项目采用BOT融资方式的财务净现值(FNPV),财务内部收益率(FIRR)和投资回收期(P_t)三项指标以及总投资利润率和项目资本金净利润率,并进行敏感性分析。结果表明,本项目的抗风险能力一般,还贷能力一般,需要加强管理以增强抗风险能力,这样才能够符合BOT项目成功的基本条件,从而保障投资方投资效益,能够成为政府、投资商和金融机构多赢的投资项目。然后再结合哈尔滨绕城高速公路东北段BOT项目的特点,论证该项目建设中存在的风险问题。在此基础上,定性分析和定量分析相结合,在对风险进行界定后运用改进层次分析法和概率分析,对该项目采用BOT融资模式的风险进行综合评价,同样表明此项目采用BOT存在一定的融资风险,需要加强风险管理。最后,指出BOT融资模式在项目建设中存在的问题与应用中的障碍,认真地分析研究这些问题与障碍,提出解决问题的方法与对策建议。
本文对BOT融资方式在哈尔滨绕城高速公路东北段上的应用情况进行认真分析、总结,不仅有利于我们很好的继续完成该项目的建设任务,而且可以对将来搞好BOT融资方式项目提供参考,为黑龙江省多渠道筹集建设资金,搞好基础设施建设提供可借鉴的经验。
Highway is one of the essential infrastructures that sustained, stable and healthy .As China's economic construction and the continuous development, the existing level of infrastructure construction and economic development is very difficult to adapt to the requirements, the highway construction lagging behind is especially prominent, at the time national contradiction capital supply and demand with difficult to alleviate, BOT financing mode in highway construction could provide us with a new solution of funds.
In this paper, taking Heilongjiang Provincial Highway projects financing for the background, research on the current existence in a variety of financing methods at home and abroad, including bank loans, bond financing and equity financing, BOT, ABS, as well as industrial investment fund. Through analyzing the pros and cons of various financing models and combining in Heilongjiang Province of the actual situation in the current, at the conclusion of BOT projects successful experience at home and abroad , identify suitable Harbin Ring Highway Northeast Section construction financing model-BOT financing mode.
Through the use of economic evaluation methods, analysis and measured financial net present value (FNPV), the financial internal rate of return (FIRR) and financial investment recovery period (P_t), as well as three indicators of profitability and capital investment margins , and conducted sensitivity analysis. The results show that the ability of this project to resist risk is general, repayment capacity is general, we need to strengthen the management to enhance the ability to resisting risks.Only in this way that meet the basic conditions for the success of the project; to be a investors and financial institutions win-win project. Then combine the characteristics of BOT highway projects, argues Harbin Ring Highway construction risks existing. On this basis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, defining risks , Harbin Ring Highway BOT financing model ,the risks belong to "small risk" range; noting Harbin Ring Highway has some risks of the BOT financing. At the same time, pointed out that the BOT financing model in Harbin Ring Highway construction problems and applications barriers of these issues and obstacles, propose some solutions to problems and the countermeasures .
In this paper, careful analysis and summing up of BOT Harbin Ring Highway, will not only help to continue our good construction mission, but can also do a good job in the future BOT project financing methods reference , Heilongjiang Province for the construction of multi-channel to raise funds, do a good job in providing infrastructure construction experience to draw on.
本文以黑龙江省高速公路项目融资为背景,研究了目前存在于国内外的多种融资方式,其中包括银行贷款、债券融资和股票融资、BOT、ABS(Asset-Backed-Securitization)以及产业投资基金。通过对各种融资模式的利弊分析并结合黑龙江省当前的实际情况,在总结了国内外BOT项目的实践成功经验的基础上,确定适合哈尔滨绕城高速公路东北段项目建设的融资模式—BOT融资模式。
通过运用公路建设项目经济评价办法,分析和测算本项目采用BOT融资方式的财务净现值(FNPV),财务内部收益率(FIRR)和投资回收期(P_t)三项指标以及总投资利润率和项目资本金净利润率,并进行敏感性分析。结果表明,本项目的抗风险能力一般,还贷能力一般,需要加强管理以增强抗风险能力,这样才能够符合BOT项目成功的基本条件,从而保障投资方投资效益,能够成为政府、投资商和金融机构多赢的投资项目。然后再结合哈尔滨绕城高速公路东北段BOT项目的特点,论证该项目建设中存在的风险问题。在此基础上,定性分析和定量分析相结合,在对风险进行界定后运用改进层次分析法和概率分析,对该项目采用BOT融资模式的风险进行综合评价,同样表明此项目采用BOT存在一定的融资风险,需要加强风险管理。最后,指出BOT融资模式在项目建设中存在的问题与应用中的障碍,认真地分析研究这些问题与障碍,提出解决问题的方法与对策建议。
本文对BOT融资方式在哈尔滨绕城高速公路东北段上的应用情况进行认真分析、总结,不仅有利于我们很好的继续完成该项目的建设任务,而且可以对将来搞好BOT融资方式项目提供参考,为黑龙江省多渠道筹集建设资金,搞好基础设施建设提供可借鉴的经验。
Highway is one of the essential infrastructures that sustained, stable and healthy .As China's economic construction and the continuous development, the existing level of infrastructure construction and economic development is very difficult to adapt to the requirements, the highway construction lagging behind is especially prominent, at the time national contradiction capital supply and demand with difficult to alleviate, BOT financing mode in highway construction could provide us with a new solution of funds.
In this paper, taking Heilongjiang Provincial Highway projects financing for the background, research on the current existence in a variety of financing methods at home and abroad, including bank loans, bond financing and equity financing, BOT, ABS, as well as industrial investment fund. Through analyzing the pros and cons of various financing models and combining in Heilongjiang Province of the actual situation in the current, at the conclusion of BOT projects successful experience at home and abroad , identify suitable Harbin Ring Highway Northeast Section construction financing model-BOT financing mode.
Through the use of economic evaluation methods, analysis and measured financial net present value (FNPV), the financial internal rate of return (FIRR) and financial investment recovery period (P_t), as well as three indicators of profitability and capital investment margins , and conducted sensitivity analysis. The results show that the ability of this project to resist risk is general, repayment capacity is general, we need to strengthen the management to enhance the ability to resisting risks.Only in this way that meet the basic conditions for the success of the project; to be a investors and financial institutions win-win project. Then combine the characteristics of BOT highway projects, argues Harbin Ring Highway construction risks existing. On this basis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, defining risks , Harbin Ring Highway BOT financing model ,the risks belong to "small risk" range; noting Harbin Ring Highway has some risks of the BOT financing. At the same time, pointed out that the BOT financing model in Harbin Ring Highway construction problems and applications barriers of these issues and obstacles, propose some solutions to problems and the countermeasures .
In this paper, careful analysis and summing up of BOT Harbin Ring Highway, will not only help to continue our good construction mission, but can also do a good job in the future BOT project financing methods reference , Heilongjiang Province for the construction of multi-channel to raise funds, do a good job in providing infrastructure construction experience to draw on.
引文
[1]2006年中国公路建设行业研究报告[R].中国行业研究信息网.2008-10-20
[2]国家高速公路网规划.交通部规划研究院.2004,19-22
[3]国家高速公路网规划.中华人民共和国交通部.2008
[4]黑龙江千亿资金提速公路建设.中国交通资讯网.2008-12-20
[5]黄俐华.论高速公路建设资金的筹措渠道[J].中国水运,2007,9:88-96
[6]顾长浩,马贝艺.BOT投融资模式的起源与发展[D].北京:东吴法学,1999,7:56-63
[7]简迎辉,杨建基.工程项目管理[M].中国水利水电出版,147-152
[8]Patrick T I Lam.A sectoral review of risks associated with major infrastructure projects.International Journal of Project Management,1999,17(2):77-87
[9]L.Y.Shen,Y.Z.Wu.Risk Concession Model for Build/Operate/Transfer Contract Projects.Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2005,131(2):211-220
[10]Robert.L.K.Tiong,Jahidul Alum.Financial commitments for BOT projects.International Journals of Project Management,1997,15(2):73-78
[11]Robert.L.K.Tiong,Jahidul Alum.Evaluation of proposals for BOT projects.International Journals of Project Management,1997,15(2):67-72
[12]Tarek M.Zayed,Luh-Maan Chang.Prototype Model for Build-Operate-Transfer Risk Assessment.Journal of Management in Engineering,2002,18(1):7-16
[13]M.M.Kumaraswamy,X.Q.Zhang.Governmental role in BOT infrastructure development.International Journals of Project Management,2001,19:195-205
[14]Yang H,Bell,M.G.H.Models and algorithms for road network design:a review and some new developments.Transport Review.1998,18:257-278
[15]Yang H,Huang,H.J.Carpooling and congestion pricing in a multilanehighway with high-occupancy-vehicle lanes.Transportation Research,1998,33:139-155
[16]Ng.Ghim.Hwee,Robert L K Tiong.Model of cash flow forecasting and riskanalysis for construction firm.International Journal of Project Management.2002,20:351-363
[17]K.T.Yeo,Robert L K Tiong.Positive management of difference for risk reduction in BOT project.International Journal of Project Management,2000,18:257-265
[18]Dr Wang Shouqing.Building the External Wing of Construction:Managing Risk in International Construction Project.Final Report.March 2002,221-226
[19]Dr Wang Shouqing,Dr Robert L K Tiong.Evaluation of Risk in BOT Project.1999,78-90
[20]S.Q.Wang,L K Tiong.Case study of government initiatives for PRC's BOT Power plant project.International Journal of Project Management,2000,18:69-78
[21]杜帅,梁晓霞.我国现行高速公路投融资渠道现状研究[J].黑龙江交通科技,2002,10:48-53
[22]甘晓毅.公路建设中融资问题的探讨[J].交通财会,2002,1:41-42
[23]王东武.完善我国公路建设资金融资渠道的思考[J].公路与汽运,2004,4:114-116
[24]孙淑芳,刘红.高速公路发展与债券融资[J].交通财会,2003,10:47-51
[25]齐榕华.探索多样化融资方式促进福建高速公路发展[J].改革探索,2001,7:27-28
[26]徐莉.项目融资[M].武汉大学出版社,2005,165-177
[27]陈建军.高速公路建设融资实施资产证券化创新研究[J].中国西部科技,2004,4:91-92
[28]王宗发.项目融资特点分析[J].市场与价格,2004,2:42-43
[29]戴巍巍.BOT的特点及在上海高速公建设中的应用[J].上海公路,2002,3:41-44
[30]北京市咨询公司.BOT项目指南—基础设施投资方式之一[M].北京:地震出版社,1995,2-5
[31]季芳.永武高速公路建设BOT融资模式的选择及风险分析[D].西安理工大学,2006,199-205
[32]程国庆,梁振东,费国平.高速公路采用BOT方式的探讨[J].公路,2003,8:121-124
[33]韩灵丽.BOT项目融资中的政府信用[J].上海财经大学学报,2003,6:45-49
[34]张娟敏.公路建设项目融资可行性研究内容初探[J].中国工程咨询,2002,8:30-32
[35]吴刚龙.运用国内BOT方式建设襄荆高速公路[J].公路,2002,2:65-68
[36]国道主干线同三公路(G010)哈尔滨绕城公路东北段(秦家至东风)工程可行性研究报告
[37]Chris Marrison.Risk measurement for Porject finance,www.bis.org,2001-3-6
[38]谢忠辉.长谭西线高速公路特许经营(BOT)项目风险管理研究[D].湖南大学,2004,5-8
[39]邱苑华.现代项目风险管理方法与实践[M].北京:科学出版社,2003
[40]谢忠辉.长谭西线高速公路特许经营(BOT)项目风险管理研究[D].湖南大学
[41]季芳.永武高速公路建设BOT融资模式的选择及风险分析[D].西安理工大学,2006:9
[42]彭雪峰,徐永前.BOT项目融资中的风险识别与管理.www.lamll0.com
[43]江志远.溪洛渡电站工程风险分析.中国风险管理网.www.Chinarm.cn
[44]秦波涛.改进层次分析法用于矿井安全性综合评价[J],西安科技学院学报,2002,2:126-129
[45]吴哲敏,梁海霞.改进的层次分析法在大学生厌学分析中的应用[J].武汉理工大学学报,2006,1:147-149
[46]金菊良.改进的层次分析法在自然灾害风险识别中的应用[J].自然灾害学报,2002,5:20-24
[47]沈建明.项目风险管理[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2003
[48]谭跃进.定量分析方法[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2001
[49]简德三.项目评估与可行性研究.上海:上海财经出版社,2004,5(1):329-348
[50]黄文苗.BOT模式在高速公路项目中应用性研究[D].对外经济贸易大学高级管理人员工商管理硕士(EMBA).52-54
[51]Bennet P.Lientz,Kathryn P.Rea.Project Management For the 21 Century,Third Edition[M],California:Academic Press,2002
[52]Rober L.K.Tiong.Risk and Guarantees in BOT Tender.Journal ofConstruction Engineering and Management[J],June,1995
[53]Chris Marrrision,Risk measurement for Project Finance,www.bis.org
[2]国家高速公路网规划.交通部规划研究院.2004,19-22
[3]国家高速公路网规划.中华人民共和国交通部.2008
[4]黑龙江千亿资金提速公路建设.中国交通资讯网.2008-12-20
[5]黄俐华.论高速公路建设资金的筹措渠道[J].中国水运,2007,9:88-96
[6]顾长浩,马贝艺.BOT投融资模式的起源与发展[D].北京:东吴法学,1999,7:56-63
[7]简迎辉,杨建基.工程项目管理[M].中国水利水电出版,147-152
[8]Patrick T I Lam.A sectoral review of risks associated with major infrastructure projects.International Journal of Project Management,1999,17(2):77-87
[9]L.Y.Shen,Y.Z.Wu.Risk Concession Model for Build/Operate/Transfer Contract Projects.Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2005,131(2):211-220
[10]Robert.L.K.Tiong,Jahidul Alum.Financial commitments for BOT projects.International Journals of Project Management,1997,15(2):73-78
[11]Robert.L.K.Tiong,Jahidul Alum.Evaluation of proposals for BOT projects.International Journals of Project Management,1997,15(2):67-72
[12]Tarek M.Zayed,Luh-Maan Chang.Prototype Model for Build-Operate-Transfer Risk Assessment.Journal of Management in Engineering,2002,18(1):7-16
[13]M.M.Kumaraswamy,X.Q.Zhang.Governmental role in BOT infrastructure development.International Journals of Project Management,2001,19:195-205
[14]Yang H,Bell,M.G.H.Models and algorithms for road network design:a review and some new developments.Transport Review.1998,18:257-278
[15]Yang H,Huang,H.J.Carpooling and congestion pricing in a multilanehighway with high-occupancy-vehicle lanes.Transportation Research,1998,33:139-155
[16]Ng.Ghim.Hwee,Robert L K Tiong.Model of cash flow forecasting and riskanalysis for construction firm.International Journal of Project Management.2002,20:351-363
[17]K.T.Yeo,Robert L K Tiong.Positive management of difference for risk reduction in BOT project.International Journal of Project Management,2000,18:257-265
[18]Dr Wang Shouqing.Building the External Wing of Construction:Managing Risk in International Construction Project.Final Report.March 2002,221-226
[19]Dr Wang Shouqing,Dr Robert L K Tiong.Evaluation of Risk in BOT Project.1999,78-90
[20]S.Q.Wang,L K Tiong.Case study of government initiatives for PRC's BOT Power plant project.International Journal of Project Management,2000,18:69-78
[21]杜帅,梁晓霞.我国现行高速公路投融资渠道现状研究[J].黑龙江交通科技,2002,10:48-53
[22]甘晓毅.公路建设中融资问题的探讨[J].交通财会,2002,1:41-42
[23]王东武.完善我国公路建设资金融资渠道的思考[J].公路与汽运,2004,4:114-116
[24]孙淑芳,刘红.高速公路发展与债券融资[J].交通财会,2003,10:47-51
[25]齐榕华.探索多样化融资方式促进福建高速公路发展[J].改革探索,2001,7:27-28
[26]徐莉.项目融资[M].武汉大学出版社,2005,165-177
[27]陈建军.高速公路建设融资实施资产证券化创新研究[J].中国西部科技,2004,4:91-92
[28]王宗发.项目融资特点分析[J].市场与价格,2004,2:42-43
[29]戴巍巍.BOT的特点及在上海高速公建设中的应用[J].上海公路,2002,3:41-44
[30]北京市咨询公司.BOT项目指南—基础设施投资方式之一[M].北京:地震出版社,1995,2-5
[31]季芳.永武高速公路建设BOT融资模式的选择及风险分析[D].西安理工大学,2006,199-205
[32]程国庆,梁振东,费国平.高速公路采用BOT方式的探讨[J].公路,2003,8:121-124
[33]韩灵丽.BOT项目融资中的政府信用[J].上海财经大学学报,2003,6:45-49
[34]张娟敏.公路建设项目融资可行性研究内容初探[J].中国工程咨询,2002,8:30-32
[35]吴刚龙.运用国内BOT方式建设襄荆高速公路[J].公路,2002,2:65-68
[36]国道主干线同三公路(G010)哈尔滨绕城公路东北段(秦家至东风)工程可行性研究报告
[37]Chris Marrison.Risk measurement for Porject finance,www.bis.org,2001-3-6
[38]谢忠辉.长谭西线高速公路特许经营(BOT)项目风险管理研究[D].湖南大学,2004,5-8
[39]邱苑华.现代项目风险管理方法与实践[M].北京:科学出版社,2003
[40]谢忠辉.长谭西线高速公路特许经营(BOT)项目风险管理研究[D].湖南大学
[41]季芳.永武高速公路建设BOT融资模式的选择及风险分析[D].西安理工大学,2006:9
[42]彭雪峰,徐永前.BOT项目融资中的风险识别与管理.www.lamll0.com
[43]江志远.溪洛渡电站工程风险分析.中国风险管理网.www.Chinarm.cn
[44]秦波涛.改进层次分析法用于矿井安全性综合评价[J],西安科技学院学报,2002,2:126-129
[45]吴哲敏,梁海霞.改进的层次分析法在大学生厌学分析中的应用[J].武汉理工大学学报,2006,1:147-149
[46]金菊良.改进的层次分析法在自然灾害风险识别中的应用[J].自然灾害学报,2002,5:20-24
[47]沈建明.项目风险管理[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2003
[48]谭跃进.定量分析方法[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2001
[49]简德三.项目评估与可行性研究.上海:上海财经出版社,2004,5(1):329-348
[50]黄文苗.BOT模式在高速公路项目中应用性研究[D].对外经济贸易大学高级管理人员工商管理硕士(EMBA).52-54
[51]Bennet P.Lientz,Kathryn P.Rea.Project Management For the 21 Century,Third Edition[M],California:Academic Press,2002
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