中国矿业企业跨国投资风险预警监控研究
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摘要
20世纪90年代以来,伴随着国际经济环境的深刻变革,经济全球化正改变着国际经济分工的格局,使得各国政府越来越重视在国际市场范围内配置生产资源。加入WTO以来,中国企业积极参与国际分工,主动实施“走出去”战略,积极开展跨国投资,在全球范围内考虑资源配置,开拓市场,抓住经济全球化所提供的历史机遇。当前,随着经济的迅猛发展,人类对矿产资源的需求不断加大。经济全球化带动了矿产资源全球化,同时也加剧了国际社会对矿产资源的争夺,我国也积极对海外矿产资源进行投资开发。跨国投资在带给矿业企业带来丰厚利润的同时,也带来了巨大的风险,不少企业蒙受了巨大的损失。在我国矿业企业跨国投资热情高涨的同时,跨国投资风险的监控和防范能力却不足,因此,对我国的矿业企业的来说,建立一套完整的跨国投资风险预警和控制体系至关重要和紧迫。
研究主要包括：
(1)剖析了中国矿业企业所处的行业特征和矿业企业跨国投资的特征,在此基础上,从外部环境和内部环境两个方面分析了中国矿业企业跨国投资的风险源,外部风险源的分析借助了PEST分析法,从政治,经济,社会和技术四个方面展开；内部风险源的分析主要从财务和管理两方面展开,在此基础上,分析了中国矿业企业跨国投资风险的传导机理。
(2)识别了中国矿业企业跨国投资关键风险。结合中国矿业企业跨国投资的特征,分别从宏观、中观和微观三层次多视角对高速公路项目融资的政治风险、经济风险、社会风险、技术风险、财务风险和管理风险进行识别。
(3)建立了中国矿业企业跨国投资风险预警体系,在风险识别的基础上构建了中国矿业企业跨国投资风险预警指标体系。在比较了各种预警模型的优缺点之后,根据中国矿业企业跨国投资的特点,采用灰色层次分析法对其风险进行综合预警。
(4)探析了中国矿业企业跨国投资风险控制策略。构建中国矿业企业跨国投资风险反应矩阵,对不同等级风险提出相应的风险应对策略；建立有效风险评估决策系统、风险控制组织保障体系、风险控制信息保障机制,以此构建不同等级风险应对策略、不同类别风险应对思路及其多层次多维度的风险控制体系
(5)运用中国矿业企业跨国投资风险预警防控体系进行了应用分析。对汉龙公司投资澳大利亚Spinifex Ridge项目的风险进行了识别,在此基础上,利用文中建立的指标体系对该项目的风险进行了综合预警,根据预警结果提出了风险防控的措施。
文章以中国矿业企业为研究对象,立足于跨国投资理论和风险预警理论以及风险管理理论的交叉点,提出了跨国投资的风险源,建立了跨国投资项目风险预警模型,并指出要将事前的风险预警和事中事后的风险控制相结合的观点,拓宽了风险控制理论的研究领域。利用多层次灰色评价方法,借助相关计算机软件,使风险评价的过程,特别是指标权重的确定更加客观科学,尽量减小了主观因素对研究结果的影响,优化了风险控制模型。对我国矿业企业的跨国投资有良好的实用性,且指标与模型的构建基于中国矿业企业跨国投资项目,可移植性强,能够服务于我国不同的我国大多数矿业企业跨国投资的风险预警与防控,对中国矿业企业跨国投资风险预警和防控具有重要的指导意义。
Since1990s, with the profound changes in the international economic environment, economic globalization is changing the structure of international labor division, making governments pay more and more attention to the production resources in the world. After joined WTO, China's enterprises actively participate in the world economy, implement the strategy of "going out", and develop transnational investment, allocate resources around the world, expand the market, thus seizing the opportunity provided by history. At present, with the rapid development of economy, the human has strengthened the demand of mineral resources. Economic globalization drives the globalization of mineral resources, at the same time the race; our country also joined activities to the investment and utilization of mineral resources. International investment in mining enterprise brings rich profits as well as great risk, causing many enterprises a substantial loss. In our country, international investment risk monitoring and prevention capacity is not strong; therefore, setting up a set of system to warn, evaluate and control risks is very important and urgent.
This dessertation includes the following parts:
(1) Analysis of a Chinese mining company's industry characteristics and the characteristics of cross-border investment mining companies, on this basis, from the external environment and internal environment analysis of two aspects of mining enterprises in China the risk of cross-border investment sources, external sources of risk analysis using the PEST analysis, from the political, economic, social and technological four aspects; internal risk analysis of the major source of financial and management aspects from the start, on this basis, analysis of cross-border investments of Chinese mining enterprises risk transfer mechanism.
(2) To identify cross-border investments of Chinese mining enterprises the key risks. Chinese mining companies with the characteristics of cross-border investment, respectively, from the macro, meso and micro perspective of the highway more than three levels of project financing and political risk, economic risk, social risk, technical risk, financial risk and management risk identification.
(3) The establishment of a Chinese mining company cross-border investment risk early warning system to identify this risk on the basis of a Chinese mining company to build cross-border investment risk early warning indicator system. In comparing the advantages and disadvantages of various models after the warning, according to Chinese investment in mining the characteristics of multinational enterprises, the author uses of grey AHP comprehensive early warning of its risks.
(4) Analysis of cross-border investments of Chinese mining companies risk control strategies. Chinese mining enterprises to build cross-border investment risk response matrix, the corresponding risks for different levels of risk coping strategies; to establish an effective decision-making system risk assessment, risk control organization and support system, information security risk control mechanism, in order to build different levels of risk-coping strategies, different types of risk response and multi-level multi-dimensional idea of the risk control system.
(5) The use of cross-border investment risk Chinese mining enterprises for the application of early warning and control system analysis. Chinese dragon on the Spinifex Ridge project in Australia's investment risk has been identified on this basis, using the text index system created the risk of the project conducted a comprehensive early warning, according to the results of early warning of risk prevention and control measures.
In this dessertation, Chinese mining enterprises are taken as the research object on the intersection of international investment theory and risk early warning theory and risk management theory. It puts forward transnational investment risk sources and a risk control model, and points out risk control that combines the advance warning with later warning, thus broadening the field of risk control theory. By adopting multilevel grey evaluation method, and with the relevant computer software, this dessertation optimizes the risk control model in assessment process of index weight,minimizing the subjective factors which affect the researchresult.
研究主要包括：
(1)剖析了中国矿业企业所处的行业特征和矿业企业跨国投资的特征,在此基础上,从外部环境和内部环境两个方面分析了中国矿业企业跨国投资的风险源,外部风险源的分析借助了PEST分析法,从政治,经济,社会和技术四个方面展开；内部风险源的分析主要从财务和管理两方面展开,在此基础上,分析了中国矿业企业跨国投资风险的传导机理。
(2)识别了中国矿业企业跨国投资关键风险。结合中国矿业企业跨国投资的特征,分别从宏观、中观和微观三层次多视角对高速公路项目融资的政治风险、经济风险、社会风险、技术风险、财务风险和管理风险进行识别。
(3)建立了中国矿业企业跨国投资风险预警体系,在风险识别的基础上构建了中国矿业企业跨国投资风险预警指标体系。在比较了各种预警模型的优缺点之后,根据中国矿业企业跨国投资的特点,采用灰色层次分析法对其风险进行综合预警。
(4)探析了中国矿业企业跨国投资风险控制策略。构建中国矿业企业跨国投资风险反应矩阵,对不同等级风险提出相应的风险应对策略；建立有效风险评估决策系统、风险控制组织保障体系、风险控制信息保障机制,以此构建不同等级风险应对策略、不同类别风险应对思路及其多层次多维度的风险控制体系
(5)运用中国矿业企业跨国投资风险预警防控体系进行了应用分析。对汉龙公司投资澳大利亚Spinifex Ridge项目的风险进行了识别,在此基础上,利用文中建立的指标体系对该项目的风险进行了综合预警,根据预警结果提出了风险防控的措施。
文章以中国矿业企业为研究对象,立足于跨国投资理论和风险预警理论以及风险管理理论的交叉点,提出了跨国投资的风险源,建立了跨国投资项目风险预警模型,并指出要将事前的风险预警和事中事后的风险控制相结合的观点,拓宽了风险控制理论的研究领域。利用多层次灰色评价方法,借助相关计算机软件,使风险评价的过程,特别是指标权重的确定更加客观科学,尽量减小了主观因素对研究结果的影响,优化了风险控制模型。对我国矿业企业的跨国投资有良好的实用性,且指标与模型的构建基于中国矿业企业跨国投资项目,可移植性强,能够服务于我国不同的我国大多数矿业企业跨国投资的风险预警与防控,对中国矿业企业跨国投资风险预警和防控具有重要的指导意义。
Since1990s, with the profound changes in the international economic environment, economic globalization is changing the structure of international labor division, making governments pay more and more attention to the production resources in the world. After joined WTO, China's enterprises actively participate in the world economy, implement the strategy of "going out", and develop transnational investment, allocate resources around the world, expand the market, thus seizing the opportunity provided by history. At present, with the rapid development of economy, the human has strengthened the demand of mineral resources. Economic globalization drives the globalization of mineral resources, at the same time the race; our country also joined activities to the investment and utilization of mineral resources. International investment in mining enterprise brings rich profits as well as great risk, causing many enterprises a substantial loss. In our country, international investment risk monitoring and prevention capacity is not strong; therefore, setting up a set of system to warn, evaluate and control risks is very important and urgent.
This dessertation includes the following parts:
(1) Analysis of a Chinese mining company's industry characteristics and the characteristics of cross-border investment mining companies, on this basis, from the external environment and internal environment analysis of two aspects of mining enterprises in China the risk of cross-border investment sources, external sources of risk analysis using the PEST analysis, from the political, economic, social and technological four aspects; internal risk analysis of the major source of financial and management aspects from the start, on this basis, analysis of cross-border investments of Chinese mining enterprises risk transfer mechanism.
(2) To identify cross-border investments of Chinese mining enterprises the key risks. Chinese mining companies with the characteristics of cross-border investment, respectively, from the macro, meso and micro perspective of the highway more than three levels of project financing and political risk, economic risk, social risk, technical risk, financial risk and management risk identification.
(3) The establishment of a Chinese mining company cross-border investment risk early warning system to identify this risk on the basis of a Chinese mining company to build cross-border investment risk early warning indicator system. In comparing the advantages and disadvantages of various models after the warning, according to Chinese investment in mining the characteristics of multinational enterprises, the author uses of grey AHP comprehensive early warning of its risks.
(4) Analysis of cross-border investments of Chinese mining companies risk control strategies. Chinese mining enterprises to build cross-border investment risk response matrix, the corresponding risks for different levels of risk coping strategies; to establish an effective decision-making system risk assessment, risk control organization and support system, information security risk control mechanism, in order to build different levels of risk-coping strategies, different types of risk response and multi-level multi-dimensional idea of the risk control system.
(5) The use of cross-border investment risk Chinese mining enterprises for the application of early warning and control system analysis. Chinese dragon on the Spinifex Ridge project in Australia's investment risk has been identified on this basis, using the text index system created the risk of the project conducted a comprehensive early warning, according to the results of early warning of risk prevention and control measures.
In this dessertation, Chinese mining enterprises are taken as the research object on the intersection of international investment theory and risk early warning theory and risk management theory. It puts forward transnational investment risk sources and a risk control model, and points out risk control that combines the advance warning with later warning, thus broadening the field of risk control theory. By adopting multilevel grey evaluation method, and with the relevant computer software, this dessertation optimizes the risk control model in assessment process of index weight,minimizing the subjective factors which affect the researchresult.
引文
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