物流园区建设项目风险管理研究
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摘要
物流园区建设是一项投资大、投资回收期长、影响因素多的高风险活动,若建设失误将给企业、社会造成大范围、长时间、难以挽回的巨大损失。因此,改变传统的事后应急管理为事前的风险管理的建设项目管理模式,开展物流园区建设项目风险管理的研究,具有十分重要的现实意义。为此,本文较系统地研究了物流园区建设项目风险的辨识、评估及控制问题,取得了如下研究成果：
(1)提出了基于HHM-WBS的物流园区建设项目风险辨识方法,从独立于企业和政府的第三方角度对物流园区建设项目风险进行辨识。构建了由技术风险、财务与经济风险、组织管理风险、市场风险、社会法律(规)风险、自然及环境风险6个大类40个风险因素组成的物流园区建设项目风险评估指标体系。根据物流园区建设项目风险评价指标的不确定性、模糊性及难以准确量化的特征,给出了基于区间集值统计理论的物流园区建设项目风险度量方法和主客观信息相结合的组合指标权重确定方法。
(2)基于物元分析理论,结合接近度的概念,建立了基于模糊物元的物流园区建设项目风险评估模型,并结合物流园区建设项目实例验证了该评估方法的有效性和适用性。
(3)基于可靠性理论,构建了物流园区建设项目风险控制的串并联模型。建立了既能提高物流园区建设项目整体可靠度,又能将有限资源加以有效利用,提高风险控制效率的可靠度分配模型。算例分析结果表明只需改变可靠度较低的子系统的可靠度,整个物流园区建设项目风险控制系统的可靠度即可满足要求,从而为物流园区建设项目风险的有效控制提供了依据。
(4)基于ISM模型,对物流园区建设项目风险因素进行了分析,找出了各风险因素之间的递阶层次关系,建立了物流园区建设项目风险因素的ISM模型,揭示了风险产生的机理,并提出了科学规避、控制物流园区建设项目风险的风险管理对策。
(5)基于博弈论,以政府和企业作为参与方进行博弈分析,找出了物流园区项目建设中既能提高企业投资物流园区项目建设积极性,又能避免其投机行为带来巨大社会风险的政府干预和企业投机概率的混合纳什均衡,并提出了风险控制的政策建议。
本文采用定性与定量分析相结合、数学建模与实证分析相结合的方法,对物流园区建设项目风险辨识、评估、控制等问题进行了探讨,研究成果对丰富和完善物流园区建设项目风险管理理论,引导物流园区建设项目的科学管理,具有一定的理论指导和实践参考价值。
Logistics park construction is a high risk activity for its large investment, long payback period, influenced by many factors. It will result in a great loss that are difficult to restore in a wide range and in a long time to enterprise and society once failure decision. Therefore, it is of great practical significance and strategic significance that carry out the study on the risk management of logistics park construction project to change the way of project management from traditional post-emergency management to risk management in advance.
In this dissertation, the author chooses logistics park construction projects planned by transport sector as the research objects, studies thoroughly and systematically on its issues of risk identification, risk assessment and risk control. The major achievements and innovation of this dissertation can be summarized as follows:
(1) The dissertation identifies risks of logistics park construction projects from the perspective of a third party using HHM-WBS (hierarchical holographic modeling and work breakdown structure) method, constructs risk assessment index system that is made up of technical risk, financial and economic risks, organization and management risk, market risk, social law (rules) risks, natural and environmental risks six categories consisting of40risk factors which are more common in logistics park construction projects. The dissertation proposes risk measuring method of logistics park construction project based on interval set-valued statistical theory for the characteristics of uncertainty, ambiguity, and difficult to accurately quantify to risk factors, and proposes the method of weight deciding by combining with interval deviation degree and entropy to every indicator with subjective and objective information.
(2) The dissertation establishes risk assessment model of logistics park construction project based on fuzzy matter-element using the principle of matter-element analysis, combined with the concept of proximity. With the established risk assessment system, combined with the actual specific logistics park construction project, the dissertation empirically analyses and evaluates the project risks on the logistics park construction to verify the validity and applicability of the risk assessment model.
(3) Based on the principle of reliability theory, the dissertation builds up a risk control model for logistics park construction projects, and sets up a reliability allocation model which can improve the overall reliability of the logistics park construction projects and use the limited resources effectively to improve the efficiency of risk control. Calculating case shows that it only need change the less reliability of the subsystem, the whole reliability of the risk control system of the logistics park construction project can meet the requirement, which provides a basis for effectively controlling risk of logistics park construction project.
(4) The dissertation finds out hierarchical relations between the various risk factors through analyzing risk factors of logistics park construction project by means of interpretative structural modeling (ISM) method, and establishes an ISM model on risk factors of the logistics park construction project, which reveals the mechanism of the risks arising, and proposes some measures to avoid and control risks in the logistics park construction project scientifically on the basic of finding out main contradictions and fundamental contradiction in the construction of the logistics park project.
(5) Based on game theory and using government and enterprise as participators, the dissertation finds out mixed Nash equilibrium probability both in government intervention and in enterprise speculation, which can increase enterprise's enthusiasm to invest in the construction of logistics park project and avoid their speculation that might bring huge social risks, and proposes some policy recommendations to control risks.
This dissertation, which adopts the study methods of qualitative analysis combined with quantitative analysis and mathematical modeling combined with empirical analysis, and discusses risk identification, risk assessment, risk control and other issues on logistics park construction project, will have some theoretical guidance and practical reference value in enriching and improving risk control theory of logistics park construction project, and in guiding the scientific management to construction of logistics park project, and in promoting the healthy development of logistics park in China.
(1)提出了基于HHM-WBS的物流园区建设项目风险辨识方法,从独立于企业和政府的第三方角度对物流园区建设项目风险进行辨识。构建了由技术风险、财务与经济风险、组织管理风险、市场风险、社会法律(规)风险、自然及环境风险6个大类40个风险因素组成的物流园区建设项目风险评估指标体系。根据物流园区建设项目风险评价指标的不确定性、模糊性及难以准确量化的特征,给出了基于区间集值统计理论的物流园区建设项目风险度量方法和主客观信息相结合的组合指标权重确定方法。
(2)基于物元分析理论,结合接近度的概念,建立了基于模糊物元的物流园区建设项目风险评估模型,并结合物流园区建设项目实例验证了该评估方法的有效性和适用性。
(3)基于可靠性理论,构建了物流园区建设项目风险控制的串并联模型。建立了既能提高物流园区建设项目整体可靠度,又能将有限资源加以有效利用,提高风险控制效率的可靠度分配模型。算例分析结果表明只需改变可靠度较低的子系统的可靠度,整个物流园区建设项目风险控制系统的可靠度即可满足要求,从而为物流园区建设项目风险的有效控制提供了依据。
(4)基于ISM模型,对物流园区建设项目风险因素进行了分析,找出了各风险因素之间的递阶层次关系,建立了物流园区建设项目风险因素的ISM模型,揭示了风险产生的机理,并提出了科学规避、控制物流园区建设项目风险的风险管理对策。
(5)基于博弈论,以政府和企业作为参与方进行博弈分析,找出了物流园区项目建设中既能提高企业投资物流园区项目建设积极性,又能避免其投机行为带来巨大社会风险的政府干预和企业投机概率的混合纳什均衡,并提出了风险控制的政策建议。
本文采用定性与定量分析相结合、数学建模与实证分析相结合的方法,对物流园区建设项目风险辨识、评估、控制等问题进行了探讨,研究成果对丰富和完善物流园区建设项目风险管理理论,引导物流园区建设项目的科学管理,具有一定的理论指导和实践参考价值。
Logistics park construction is a high risk activity for its large investment, long payback period, influenced by many factors. It will result in a great loss that are difficult to restore in a wide range and in a long time to enterprise and society once failure decision. Therefore, it is of great practical significance and strategic significance that carry out the study on the risk management of logistics park construction project to change the way of project management from traditional post-emergency management to risk management in advance.
In this dissertation, the author chooses logistics park construction projects planned by transport sector as the research objects, studies thoroughly and systematically on its issues of risk identification, risk assessment and risk control. The major achievements and innovation of this dissertation can be summarized as follows:
(1) The dissertation identifies risks of logistics park construction projects from the perspective of a third party using HHM-WBS (hierarchical holographic modeling and work breakdown structure) method, constructs risk assessment index system that is made up of technical risk, financial and economic risks, organization and management risk, market risk, social law (rules) risks, natural and environmental risks six categories consisting of40risk factors which are more common in logistics park construction projects. The dissertation proposes risk measuring method of logistics park construction project based on interval set-valued statistical theory for the characteristics of uncertainty, ambiguity, and difficult to accurately quantify to risk factors, and proposes the method of weight deciding by combining with interval deviation degree and entropy to every indicator with subjective and objective information.
(2) The dissertation establishes risk assessment model of logistics park construction project based on fuzzy matter-element using the principle of matter-element analysis, combined with the concept of proximity. With the established risk assessment system, combined with the actual specific logistics park construction project, the dissertation empirically analyses and evaluates the project risks on the logistics park construction to verify the validity and applicability of the risk assessment model.
(3) Based on the principle of reliability theory, the dissertation builds up a risk control model for logistics park construction projects, and sets up a reliability allocation model which can improve the overall reliability of the logistics park construction projects and use the limited resources effectively to improve the efficiency of risk control. Calculating case shows that it only need change the less reliability of the subsystem, the whole reliability of the risk control system of the logistics park construction project can meet the requirement, which provides a basis for effectively controlling risk of logistics park construction project.
(4) The dissertation finds out hierarchical relations between the various risk factors through analyzing risk factors of logistics park construction project by means of interpretative structural modeling (ISM) method, and establishes an ISM model on risk factors of the logistics park construction project, which reveals the mechanism of the risks arising, and proposes some measures to avoid and control risks in the logistics park construction project scientifically on the basic of finding out main contradictions and fundamental contradiction in the construction of the logistics park project.
(5) Based on game theory and using government and enterprise as participators, the dissertation finds out mixed Nash equilibrium probability both in government intervention and in enterprise speculation, which can increase enterprise's enthusiasm to invest in the construction of logistics park project and avoid their speculation that might bring huge social risks, and proposes some policy recommendations to control risks.
This dissertation, which adopts the study methods of qualitative analysis combined with quantitative analysis and mathematical modeling combined with empirical analysis, and discusses risk identification, risk assessment, risk control and other issues on logistics park construction project, will have some theoretical guidance and practical reference value in enriching and improving risk control theory of logistics park construction project, and in guiding the scientific management to construction of logistics park project, and in promoting the healthy development of logistics park in China.
引文
①中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要,2011,3
②国家公路货运枢组(物流园区)投资政策调研报告,2011,9.
①上海博科资讯物流供应链研究中心2009年第二季度物流研究报告
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