气候变化对中国玉米生产的影响及适应性研究
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摘要
气候变化是气候要素在连续几十年或者更长的时间的长期统计结果的任何系统性变化。2007年IPCC第四次评估报告中更明确地指出全球平均温度的升高超过90%的可能性是由于人为温室气体浓度的增加引起的,1906~2005年全球平均地面气温升高了(0.74±0.18)℃。目前全球气候正经历一场以变暖为主要特征的显著变化,它对经济和社会发展的影响是当前人类面临的重要挑战。农业是对气候变化最为敏感和脆弱的部门之一。因此,气候变化对农业的影响评估及适应性研究成为气候变化领域的重大课题。
研究中利用田间观测资料对CERES-Maize模型的玉米品种遗传参数进行调试和校准,对作物模型本身进行时间范围和空间区域上的验证。在经过验证的诸多站点中随机挑选了13个代表站点,模拟了各站点当前气候条件Baseline(1961-1990年)和A2、B2两种气候情景下2020s、2050s、2080s时段下的雨养玉米和灌溉玉米的生长。对模拟结果对比分析,评价了气候变化对玉米产量的影响效果。本文还结合相关育种和引种理论,从品种改良和引进新品种两方面对未来玉米生产适应气候变化提出相应的对策。
本文主要是利用PRECIS模拟生成政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)排放情景特别报告(SRES)的A2和B2情景下天气数据日值的天气数据,通过区域气候模式PRECIS和作物模式CERES相嵌套,模拟了我国五个玉米主产区(北方春玉米区、黄淮海夏播玉米区、西南山地丘陵玉米区、南方丘陵玉米区、西北内陆玉米区)内13个玉米站点玉米主产区未来2020s(2011-2040年)、2050s(2041-2070年)和2080s(2071-2100年)三个时段的玉米产量变化情况;并在此基础上对玉米生产适应未来气候变化适应性措施进行探讨。
本文研究的基本结论如下:
A2、B2两种排放情景下、三个评价时段内,除了少数个别站点在2020s时段有小幅度增产现象外,大多数产量是下降的,且2020s时段的变化幅度最小,2080s时段的变化幅度最大。灌溉对玉米的增产作用还是比较明显的。在考虑CO2肥效作用时,A2和B2两种排放情景下,雨养玉米的产量下降幅度较灌溉玉米明显小很多,与不考虑CO2肥效作用时的雨养玉米相比,减产幅度也有减小。
选择代表站点在减产幅度较大的2050s、2080s时段进行品种改良分析。提高玉米作物品种吐丝到生理成熟阶段对温时的需求量(P5)和参数G2 (每株最大可能的籽粒数),产量都有不同程度的增加。改良后的品种均表现为2050s时段的产量高于2080s时段。因此,在原有品种的基础上改变品种的某些特性得到新的改良品种可以减轻因生长环境的改变带给玉米生产的负效应。
依据气候相似原理引进新品种,A2、B2情景下,考虑CO2肥效作用和不考虑CO2肥效作用都能在一定程度上降低玉米的减产幅度,甚至转减产为增产。
Climate change is the climate factor for several decades or longer period of time the long-term results of any systemic changes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report issued in the more clear that the global average temperature increase of more than 90 percent possibility is because of the man-made the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. During 1906-2005 global mean surface temperature rose higher (0.74±0.18)℃. The current global climate is experiencing a warming as the main characteristics of the significant changes. The impacts on economic and social development are the important challenges facing humanity. Therefore, impacts of these changes have been become an urgent need to address the major issues. Agriculture is one of the most sensitive sectors to climate change and it is significant to evaluate impacts of climate change on maize (one of main three foodstuff crop).
Field observations were used to calculate and calibrate the cultivar genetic parameters by put into CERES-Maize crop model. And crop model was verified with long-time data at several sites and short-time data at large scale. Then, after verification of the many sites 13 randomly selected representative sites were used to simulated and analyzed the yield changes under different weather condition in the future. They are conditions of the current climate Baseline (1961-1990) and the A2, B2 two climate scenarios 2020s, 2050s, 2080s of rainfed-maize and irrigated-maize. Comparative analysis of the simulation results and the evaluation of climate change on maize production effects were conducted. This article is also associated with breeding and cultivar introduction theory. Based on it, improved varieties and introduction of new varieties of corn were approached to adapt to climate change as corresponding countermeasures in the future.
This paper is mainly to use the weather data simulated by PRECIS of the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios to validate the linkage approach of PRECIS outputs with crop model. And then the weather data of 2020s(2011-2040 ), 2050 s (2041-2070) and 2080 s (2071-2100), together with 13 sites maize observation data were put into crop model to calculate the yield changed under different scenarios and different water conditions. On this basis for corn production to future climate change adaptation measures were discussed.
Conclusion were as follows:
Most simulated yield is declining under future climate conditions with both A2 and B2 greenhouse gases emissions scenarios, except for a small number of individual site in 2020s. And the minimum rate of yield change is in 2020s, the biggest period of change is 2080s. Irrigation on the production of corn is quite obvious. In considering the role of CO2 fertilizer efficiency, declining rate of rainfed maize production is smaller than irrigation’s under both A2 and B2 two emissions scenarios. The declining rate is also smaller than that of rainfed maize without including CO2 fertilizer efficiency in simulation.
Improved varieties was applied to adapt the changed climate in future 2050s, 2080s period at represent stations. Improving the values of genetic parameters P5(Thermal time from silking to physiological maturity) and G2(Maximum possible number of kernels per plant) would increase maize yield. Both improvement of parameters were more effective to increase maize yield at 2050s than that at 2080s. Therefore, changes of certain characteristics on species could reduce the negative effects to maize yield bought by climate environmental changes.
Based on principle of agro-climatic similarity, species introduction could reduce the rate of production of corn, or even to increase production to production under A2, B2 scenarios with or without considering CO2 fertilizer effects.
研究中利用田间观测资料对CERES-Maize模型的玉米品种遗传参数进行调试和校准,对作物模型本身进行时间范围和空间区域上的验证。在经过验证的诸多站点中随机挑选了13个代表站点,模拟了各站点当前气候条件Baseline(1961-1990年)和A2、B2两种气候情景下2020s、2050s、2080s时段下的雨养玉米和灌溉玉米的生长。对模拟结果对比分析,评价了气候变化对玉米产量的影响效果。本文还结合相关育种和引种理论,从品种改良和引进新品种两方面对未来玉米生产适应气候变化提出相应的对策。
本文主要是利用PRECIS模拟生成政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)排放情景特别报告(SRES)的A2和B2情景下天气数据日值的天气数据,通过区域气候模式PRECIS和作物模式CERES相嵌套,模拟了我国五个玉米主产区(北方春玉米区、黄淮海夏播玉米区、西南山地丘陵玉米区、南方丘陵玉米区、西北内陆玉米区)内13个玉米站点玉米主产区未来2020s(2011-2040年)、2050s(2041-2070年)和2080s(2071-2100年)三个时段的玉米产量变化情况;并在此基础上对玉米生产适应未来气候变化适应性措施进行探讨。
本文研究的基本结论如下:
A2、B2两种排放情景下、三个评价时段内,除了少数个别站点在2020s时段有小幅度增产现象外,大多数产量是下降的,且2020s时段的变化幅度最小,2080s时段的变化幅度最大。灌溉对玉米的增产作用还是比较明显的。在考虑CO2肥效作用时,A2和B2两种排放情景下,雨养玉米的产量下降幅度较灌溉玉米明显小很多,与不考虑CO2肥效作用时的雨养玉米相比,减产幅度也有减小。
选择代表站点在减产幅度较大的2050s、2080s时段进行品种改良分析。提高玉米作物品种吐丝到生理成熟阶段对温时的需求量(P5)和参数G2 (每株最大可能的籽粒数),产量都有不同程度的增加。改良后的品种均表现为2050s时段的产量高于2080s时段。因此,在原有品种的基础上改变品种的某些特性得到新的改良品种可以减轻因生长环境的改变带给玉米生产的负效应。
依据气候相似原理引进新品种,A2、B2情景下,考虑CO2肥效作用和不考虑CO2肥效作用都能在一定程度上降低玉米的减产幅度,甚至转减产为增产。
Climate change is the climate factor for several decades or longer period of time the long-term results of any systemic changes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report issued in the more clear that the global average temperature increase of more than 90 percent possibility is because of the man-made the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. During 1906-2005 global mean surface temperature rose higher (0.74±0.18)℃. The current global climate is experiencing a warming as the main characteristics of the significant changes. The impacts on economic and social development are the important challenges facing humanity. Therefore, impacts of these changes have been become an urgent need to address the major issues. Agriculture is one of the most sensitive sectors to climate change and it is significant to evaluate impacts of climate change on maize (one of main three foodstuff crop).
Field observations were used to calculate and calibrate the cultivar genetic parameters by put into CERES-Maize crop model. And crop model was verified with long-time data at several sites and short-time data at large scale. Then, after verification of the many sites 13 randomly selected representative sites were used to simulated and analyzed the yield changes under different weather condition in the future. They are conditions of the current climate Baseline (1961-1990) and the A2, B2 two climate scenarios 2020s, 2050s, 2080s of rainfed-maize and irrigated-maize. Comparative analysis of the simulation results and the evaluation of climate change on maize production effects were conducted. This article is also associated with breeding and cultivar introduction theory. Based on it, improved varieties and introduction of new varieties of corn were approached to adapt to climate change as corresponding countermeasures in the future.
This paper is mainly to use the weather data simulated by PRECIS of the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios to validate the linkage approach of PRECIS outputs with crop model. And then the weather data of 2020s(2011-2040 ), 2050 s (2041-2070) and 2080 s (2071-2100), together with 13 sites maize observation data were put into crop model to calculate the yield changed under different scenarios and different water conditions. On this basis for corn production to future climate change adaptation measures were discussed.
Conclusion were as follows:
Most simulated yield is declining under future climate conditions with both A2 and B2 greenhouse gases emissions scenarios, except for a small number of individual site in 2020s. And the minimum rate of yield change is in 2020s, the biggest period of change is 2080s. Irrigation on the production of corn is quite obvious. In considering the role of CO2 fertilizer efficiency, declining rate of rainfed maize production is smaller than irrigation’s under both A2 and B2 two emissions scenarios. The declining rate is also smaller than that of rainfed maize without including CO2 fertilizer efficiency in simulation.
Improved varieties was applied to adapt the changed climate in future 2050s, 2080s period at represent stations. Improving the values of genetic parameters P5(Thermal time from silking to physiological maturity) and G2(Maximum possible number of kernels per plant) would increase maize yield. Both improvement of parameters were more effective to increase maize yield at 2050s than that at 2080s. Therefore, changes of certain characteristics on species could reduce the negative effects to maize yield bought by climate environmental changes.
Based on principle of agro-climatic similarity, species introduction could reduce the rate of production of corn, or even to increase production to production under A2, B2 scenarios with or without considering CO2 fertilizer effects.
引文
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