海岸带区域战略决策的生态风险评价研究
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摘要
海岸带地处海洋与陆域的过渡区域,兼备海洋和陆域双重性质,是许多灾害和风险发生的敏感区域。然而,凭借特殊的地理位置和丰富的自然资源,海岸带地区人口迅速增长和经济快速发展,人类开发活动高度密集,使得生态系统严重退化、日益脆弱。在自然因素和人为因素的双重作用下,海岸带生态系统的安全和健康存在着巨大的潜在风险。从战略决策源头,前瞻性地将生态风险因素纳入战略决策,以期规避由于重大决策失误而造成的巨大生态风险,是预防和减少生态风险的根本途径。开展海岸带区域战略决策生态风险评价研究,为海岸带区域战略决策的制定提供决策支持,能有效地从战略决策源头预防和减小生态风险,以促进海岸带地区的持续发展。
本文运用生态学、管理学、地理学等多学科的理论和方法,剖析了海岸带区域战略决策生态风险评价的内涵,构建了海岸带区域战略决策的生态风险评价体系,并将其应用于海岸带主体功能区划实践中,取得以下主要成果：
(1)在深入分析和总结海岸带、战略决策、海岸带区域战略决策、生态风险评价的内涵与特点的基础上,剖析海岸带区域战略决策生态风险评价的内涵。
(2)构建了海岸带区域战略决策生态风险评价框架体系。在对生态风险评价框架梳理和总结的基础上,根据海岸带区域战略决策的要求,构建了基于战略决策过程的海岸带区域战略决策生态风险评价框架体系,将生态风险评价过程划分为战略决策前期的生态风险评价、战略决策过程的生态风险评价、战略决策后期的生态风险评价三个阶段,分别为战略决策中的备选方案选取、最优决策方案确定、最优方案的生态风险管理提供决策支持。
(3)构建了海岸带区域战略决策生态风险评价方法体系。在对生态风险评价方法梳理和总结的基础上,根据海岸带区域战略决策的目的和要求,构建了以定性和半定量为主的海岸带区域战略决策生态风险评价方法体系,包括定性与定量相结合的回顾和现状分析法、专家评判法、多准则决策(MCDM)、多维决策法(MDDM)、相对风险评价模型法等。
(4)以厦门湾和罗源湾海岸带主体功能区划为例,进行了海岸带区域战略决策生态风险评价实证研究。从生态风险角度,厦门湾及各分海区海岸带地区的最优主体功能定位为旅游；罗源湾海岸带地区的最优主体功能定位为渔业。主体功能区划实施后,厦门湾潜在的最大风险源是港口与海洋运输,潜在生态风险最大的风险事件是溢油,潜在生态风险最大的生态系统是红树林生态系统,潜在风险最大的生态终点是生态系统脆弱性的增加；厦门湾各海区的相对生态风险排序为九龙江口>西海域>同安湾>大嶝海域>南部海域>东部海域。罗源湾主体功能区划实施后,罗源湾潜在的最大风险源是养殖,潜在生态风险最大的风险事件是生境丧失,潜在生态风险最大的生态系统是泥滩生态系统,潜在风险最大的生态终点是重要生境面积减少甚至消失。
研究结果表明,本文所提出的海岸带区域战略决策生态风险评价体系能有效地从生态风险角度为海岸带决策提供支持。
Coastal zone, located in the transition area between terrestrial land and ocean, is one of the most sensitive ecosystems of natural disasters in the world, such as, typhoon, tsunami, etc. Due to its advantageous location and highly abundant natural resources, coastal zone has commonly been a center of dense population, intensive anthropogenic activities, and rapid economic development, which has brought about a series of environmental problems to make coastal and marine ecosystems seriously deteriorated and highly vulnerable. Both natural and anthropogenic factors have contributed to huge potentially risk to ecosystem's heath and security in coastal area. What the most fundamental and effective way to prevent and mitigate considerable ecological loss caused by risk events with uncertainty, is to take the ecological risk factors into account in strategic decision processes. Therefore, it is significantly important to carry out studies on ecological risk assessment of strategic decision making processes in coastal area, which provides scientific support for strategic decision making process, prevents and mitigates ecological risk in the strategic level, and more importantly promotes the sustainable development in coastal zone.
In this paper, multi-disciplinary theories and methods, such as, ecology, strategic decision making, geography, etc., were applied to systematically study the ecological risk assessment of strategic decision making in coastal area, mainly including its definition and connotation, assessment frameworks, approaches and methods. At the same time, case studies were conducted for the ecological risk assessment of principal coastal functional zoning in Xiamen Bay and Luoyuan Bay. The main findings of this thesis are as follows.
(1) The definition and connotation of ecological risk assessment of strategic decision making in coastal area was analyzed and defined based on the analysis of the connotation and characteristics of coastal zone, strategic decision making process and its practice in coastal area, ecological risk assessment, etc.
(2) Based on multi-dimension decision making (MDDM) approach, through the analysis and comparison of existing ecological risk assessment frameworks, and combined the requirements for strategic decision making process in coastal area, ecological risk assessment framework of strategic decision making in coastal area was set up in view of the idea of procedure-oriented approach, which includes three different phases of ecological risk assessment, i.e., the ecological risk assessment before decision-making process which provides support for the selection of decision alternatives, the ecological risk assessment in decision making process which provides support for the determination of optimal decision, and the ecological risk assessment in latter stage which provides support for ecological risk management.
(3) Based on through analysis and comparison of existing ecological risk assessment methods, the methodologies for the ecological risk assessment of strategic decision making process in coastal area were established according to the requirements of strategic decision making process, which mainly focus on qualitative and semi-quantitative methods including retrospective ecological risk assessment, expert judgment, multi-dimension decision making (MDDM) method and its model compared with multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method, relative risk model and so on.
(4) The ecological risk assessment approaches and methods mentioned above were applied to the principal coastal functional zoning in Xiamen Bay and Luoyuan Bay, Fujian, China. The results showed that, from the perspective of ecological risk, the optimal principal function is tourism for Xiamen Bay and its sub-areas, and fishery for Luoyuan Bay. After the principal function goes to be implemented in Xiamen Bay, the highest potential ecological risk source would be the risk caused by harbor and marine transportation, the highest potential ecological risk event would be oil spill, the ecosystem with the highest potential risk would be mangrove ecosystem, and ecosystem vulnerability would be the most significant ecological end for the impact of ecological risk. The greatest potential ecological risk area would be Jiulong River Estuary, and followed by Western Sea, Tongan Bay, Dadeng Sea, Southern Sea and Eastern Sea. Different from Xiamen Bay, the highest potential ecological risk source would be the risk caused by aquaculture in Luoyuan Bay, the highest potential ecological risk event would be habitat lost, the ecosystem with the highest potential risk would be mud flat ecosystem, and the loss or disappearance of important habitats would be the most significant ecological end for the impact of ecological risk.
The results showed that the ecological risk assessment framework and methods set up in this study can combine ecological risk assessment into the strategic decision making processes in coastal area, provide an effective and valuable support for the strategic decision making processes in coastal area, and ensure coastal development towards sustainability.
本文运用生态学、管理学、地理学等多学科的理论和方法,剖析了海岸带区域战略决策生态风险评价的内涵,构建了海岸带区域战略决策的生态风险评价体系,并将其应用于海岸带主体功能区划实践中,取得以下主要成果：
(1)在深入分析和总结海岸带、战略决策、海岸带区域战略决策、生态风险评价的内涵与特点的基础上,剖析海岸带区域战略决策生态风险评价的内涵。
(2)构建了海岸带区域战略决策生态风险评价框架体系。在对生态风险评价框架梳理和总结的基础上,根据海岸带区域战略决策的要求,构建了基于战略决策过程的海岸带区域战略决策生态风险评价框架体系,将生态风险评价过程划分为战略决策前期的生态风险评价、战略决策过程的生态风险评价、战略决策后期的生态风险评价三个阶段,分别为战略决策中的备选方案选取、最优决策方案确定、最优方案的生态风险管理提供决策支持。
(3)构建了海岸带区域战略决策生态风险评价方法体系。在对生态风险评价方法梳理和总结的基础上,根据海岸带区域战略决策的目的和要求,构建了以定性和半定量为主的海岸带区域战略决策生态风险评价方法体系,包括定性与定量相结合的回顾和现状分析法、专家评判法、多准则决策(MCDM)、多维决策法(MDDM)、相对风险评价模型法等。
(4)以厦门湾和罗源湾海岸带主体功能区划为例,进行了海岸带区域战略决策生态风险评价实证研究。从生态风险角度,厦门湾及各分海区海岸带地区的最优主体功能定位为旅游；罗源湾海岸带地区的最优主体功能定位为渔业。主体功能区划实施后,厦门湾潜在的最大风险源是港口与海洋运输,潜在生态风险最大的风险事件是溢油,潜在生态风险最大的生态系统是红树林生态系统,潜在风险最大的生态终点是生态系统脆弱性的增加；厦门湾各海区的相对生态风险排序为九龙江口>西海域>同安湾>大嶝海域>南部海域>东部海域。罗源湾主体功能区划实施后,罗源湾潜在的最大风险源是养殖,潜在生态风险最大的风险事件是生境丧失,潜在生态风险最大的生态系统是泥滩生态系统,潜在风险最大的生态终点是重要生境面积减少甚至消失。
研究结果表明,本文所提出的海岸带区域战略决策生态风险评价体系能有效地从生态风险角度为海岸带决策提供支持。
Coastal zone, located in the transition area between terrestrial land and ocean, is one of the most sensitive ecosystems of natural disasters in the world, such as, typhoon, tsunami, etc. Due to its advantageous location and highly abundant natural resources, coastal zone has commonly been a center of dense population, intensive anthropogenic activities, and rapid economic development, which has brought about a series of environmental problems to make coastal and marine ecosystems seriously deteriorated and highly vulnerable. Both natural and anthropogenic factors have contributed to huge potentially risk to ecosystem's heath and security in coastal area. What the most fundamental and effective way to prevent and mitigate considerable ecological loss caused by risk events with uncertainty, is to take the ecological risk factors into account in strategic decision processes. Therefore, it is significantly important to carry out studies on ecological risk assessment of strategic decision making processes in coastal area, which provides scientific support for strategic decision making process, prevents and mitigates ecological risk in the strategic level, and more importantly promotes the sustainable development in coastal zone.
In this paper, multi-disciplinary theories and methods, such as, ecology, strategic decision making, geography, etc., were applied to systematically study the ecological risk assessment of strategic decision making in coastal area, mainly including its definition and connotation, assessment frameworks, approaches and methods. At the same time, case studies were conducted for the ecological risk assessment of principal coastal functional zoning in Xiamen Bay and Luoyuan Bay. The main findings of this thesis are as follows.
(1) The definition and connotation of ecological risk assessment of strategic decision making in coastal area was analyzed and defined based on the analysis of the connotation and characteristics of coastal zone, strategic decision making process and its practice in coastal area, ecological risk assessment, etc.
(2) Based on multi-dimension decision making (MDDM) approach, through the analysis and comparison of existing ecological risk assessment frameworks, and combined the requirements for strategic decision making process in coastal area, ecological risk assessment framework of strategic decision making in coastal area was set up in view of the idea of procedure-oriented approach, which includes three different phases of ecological risk assessment, i.e., the ecological risk assessment before decision-making process which provides support for the selection of decision alternatives, the ecological risk assessment in decision making process which provides support for the determination of optimal decision, and the ecological risk assessment in latter stage which provides support for ecological risk management.
(3) Based on through analysis and comparison of existing ecological risk assessment methods, the methodologies for the ecological risk assessment of strategic decision making process in coastal area were established according to the requirements of strategic decision making process, which mainly focus on qualitative and semi-quantitative methods including retrospective ecological risk assessment, expert judgment, multi-dimension decision making (MDDM) method and its model compared with multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method, relative risk model and so on.
(4) The ecological risk assessment approaches and methods mentioned above were applied to the principal coastal functional zoning in Xiamen Bay and Luoyuan Bay, Fujian, China. The results showed that, from the perspective of ecological risk, the optimal principal function is tourism for Xiamen Bay and its sub-areas, and fishery for Luoyuan Bay. After the principal function goes to be implemented in Xiamen Bay, the highest potential ecological risk source would be the risk caused by harbor and marine transportation, the highest potential ecological risk event would be oil spill, the ecosystem with the highest potential risk would be mangrove ecosystem, and ecosystem vulnerability would be the most significant ecological end for the impact of ecological risk. The greatest potential ecological risk area would be Jiulong River Estuary, and followed by Western Sea, Tongan Bay, Dadeng Sea, Southern Sea and Eastern Sea. Different from Xiamen Bay, the highest potential ecological risk source would be the risk caused by aquaculture in Luoyuan Bay, the highest potential ecological risk event would be habitat lost, the ecosystem with the highest potential risk would be mud flat ecosystem, and the loss or disappearance of important habitats would be the most significant ecological end for the impact of ecological risk.
The results showed that the ecological risk assessment framework and methods set up in this study can combine ecological risk assessment into the strategic decision making processes in coastal area, provide an effective and valuable support for the strategic decision making processes in coastal area, and ensure coastal development towards sustainability.
引文
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