中国的贸易开放、产业升级与就业结构研究
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摘要
对外贸易扩张与垂直专业化产品内分工已成为当代中国经济全球化最显著的特征。中国的出口中到底包含多大比例的国内附加值,贸易开放对于国内的产业升级含义如何,以及对就业结构究竟产生了怎样的影响,这些问题在近年来引起了经济学家的广泛兴趣。
出口中的国外成分和国内成分的比例通常可以用非竞争性的投入产出表通过计算VSS值确定,由于中国官方没有编制针对加工贸易的投入产出表,准确估算出口的附加值变得十分困难。本文在HIY方法基础上进一步考虑加工贸易对于一国出口品价值构成的特殊含义,并通过贸易模式来识别加工出口和一般出口中包含的进口中间品的比例,从而为准确估算出口的国内附加值提供了一个简便的替代方法。
首先,2008年115个三位数工业行业的估算结果表明,按各行业出口值为权重计算的加工贸易整体的附加值率约为44%,而一般贸易的国内附加值率则高达90%以上。出口扩张最快的技术复杂行业,其国内附加值率均小于50%。因此,中国出口技术复杂产品的现象可由加工贸易的扩张来解释。这意味着,中国出口越来越复杂的产品还只是中国加深参与全球垂直分工的结果。
其次,进一步考虑到通过一般贸易进口的中间品在国内行业之间的投入产出关系之后,2006-2008年二位数工业行业的估算结果表明,2006-2008年中国出口的VSS均值达47.1%,约为HIY方法的两倍,可见国外成分整体较高主要源于加工贸易。进一步细分行业的结果显示,资本技术密集型行业出口值中的国外成分显著地高于劳动密集型行业,而科技含量集中的电子设备制品行业的VSS更是高达84%,说明中国出口巨额增长只是某种“假象”,出口品所含技能水平的提升并未反映为国内附加值的同步增长,产业升级步伐缓慢。另外,贸易对象的收入水平与出口品的VSS之间存在一定的正向关系。
关于全球化因素对中国就业结构的影响,总量数据的研究结果表明：(1)进出口贸易的扩张并未提高中国的高技能工人就业比例,该结论与H-O模型一致；FDI与高技能工人就业比例显著正相关,这也验证了Feenstra-Hanson外包理论中有关资本流入如何影响就业结构的基本判断。(2)进口贸易对国内就业结构的负作用主要表现为中间品进口对高技能劳动力的替代效应,而出口贸易对就业结构的不利影响则主要发生在劳动密集型行业。(3)资本技术密集型行业、外资企业及沿海地区的FDI强化了出口贸易对国内就业结构的负面效应。
为进一步考察垂直专业化贸易对国内就业结构的影响,本文还利用2004年的中国工业企业普查数据库(CASIF)和海关贸易数据库(CCTS)对这一作用机制进行实证研究。我们发现：(1)来自OECD等发达国家的中间品进口比重(VSSH)上升有助于提高中国制造业的高技能劳动力就业比例,从亚非拉等低收入国家进口中间品的份额(VSSL)增加将带来劳动力技能水平的相对下降。(2)企业出口比例的提升,尤其是一般出口显著强化了VSSH与高技能劳动力就业比例的正相关性,而加工出口占比的提高则不利于这种相关性的加强。(3)资本深化与高技能劳动力就业之间具有互补关系,但以加工贸易为主的港澳台资本在-定程度上削弱了高技能劳动力的相对需求。
改革开放30年来,中国的产业升级步伐相当缓慢。我们借鉴发展中国家尤其是东亚四小龙的成功经验,对此进行合理解释,并展望了中国未来的产业升级道路选择。一个国家的产业和技术结构从根本上取决于国内要素禀赋,对于中国而言,就业结构升级是产业结构升级的基础。综合理论和实证研究,我们讨论了在全球化进程中,如何成功实现国内就业结构升级的政策含义。
As foreign trade expansion and vertical specialization have become the most significant features of China's economy under globalization, studies on the domestic value-added in export as well as how foreign trade influences industrial upgrading and employment structure become of wide interest.
The proportion between foreign vs domestic contents could be identified by calculating VSS (Vertical Specialization Share) through non-competitive I/O (input-output) tables. Application of such method to Chinese case, however, would result in a serious measurement bias because I/O tables regarding processing trade are not officially released in China. Based on HIY method and by taking account of the significance processing trade has for the value composition of export, this paper is to provide a simplified way to estimating the domestic value-added in China's exports by identifying the import shares of processing export and normal export through different trade patterns.
First, estimation of1153-digit manufacturing industries in2008shows that domestic value-added share in processing trade for all industries weighted by export value is about44%, compared to over90%in ordinary trade. Technologically sophisticated industries, which have experienced the fastest export expansion, have domestic value-added share of less than50%. The paper concludes that the rise on technologically sophisticated exports could be better accounted for by the expansion of processing trade which makes China more deeply integrated into the global value chain.
Second, after taking account of the inter-industry input and output of intermediates imported through normal trade, estimation of2-digit industries from2006to2008shows the average VSS of China's export is about47.1%, almost twice as the estimate given by HIY method, which means that the comparatively high foreign value-added share is largely attributed to the processing trade. Further sub-sector study shows that the foreign value-added shares in capital-and technology-intensive industries are higher than those in labor-intensive industries, and the VSS of electronics products industry, which is technology-intensive, is as high as84%. These indicate that China's huge increase in exports is only an "illusion". The upgrading of skills embodied in exports doesn't turn into simultaneous increase in domestic value-added, which means that China's industrial upgrading is rather slow. In addition, we also find that the income level of trade partners and the VSS of goods exported are positively linked.
As for the influence of globalization on China's employment structure, empirical results based on aggregate data show that:(1) China's trade growth hasn't increased the proportion of highly-skilled workers in employment, which is consistent with the H-O Model. FDI is positively correlated with the proportion of highly skilled workers in employment, verifying the Feenstra-Hanson outsourcing theory about the impact of capital inflow on employment structure.(2) The main negative effect of import on employment structure is that intermediate import substitute for highly-skilled workers, while the negative effects of export on employment structure mainly occur in labor-intensive industries.(3) Capital-and technology-intensive industries, foreign-funded enterprises and FDI in coastal areas amplify the negative effects of export on employment structure.
To further explore the influence of vertical specialization on the employment structure, this paper also conducts an empirical study using the2004data from CASIF and CCTS databases. Results show that:(1) The increase of vertical specialization share of OECD countries (VSSH) is conductive to the increase in China's high-skilled employment share, while the increase of vertical specialization share of low income countries (VSSL) causes the high-skilled employment share to fall.(2) The increase of enterprises'export share, especially the normal export, strengthens the positive correlation between VSSH and the high-skilled employment share, while the increase of processing export share is against this correlation.(3) Capital deepening and the high-skilled employment are complementary to each other, but Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan capital, which is processing trade oriented, weakens the relative demand for highly skilled labor.
In the past30years, China's industrial upgrading has been rather slow. By comparing with successful cases of East Asian Tigers, we want to give reasonable explanation on it and discuss the possible paths for future industrial upgrading. A country's industry and technology structure fundamentally depend on its domestic factor endowment. For China, employment upgrading is the base for industrial upgrading. With theoretical and empirical studies, we discuss the policy implications regarding how to upgrade employment structure under the context of globalization.
出口中的国外成分和国内成分的比例通常可以用非竞争性的投入产出表通过计算VSS值确定,由于中国官方没有编制针对加工贸易的投入产出表,准确估算出口的附加值变得十分困难。本文在HIY方法基础上进一步考虑加工贸易对于一国出口品价值构成的特殊含义,并通过贸易模式来识别加工出口和一般出口中包含的进口中间品的比例,从而为准确估算出口的国内附加值提供了一个简便的替代方法。
首先,2008年115个三位数工业行业的估算结果表明,按各行业出口值为权重计算的加工贸易整体的附加值率约为44%,而一般贸易的国内附加值率则高达90%以上。出口扩张最快的技术复杂行业,其国内附加值率均小于50%。因此,中国出口技术复杂产品的现象可由加工贸易的扩张来解释。这意味着,中国出口越来越复杂的产品还只是中国加深参与全球垂直分工的结果。
其次,进一步考虑到通过一般贸易进口的中间品在国内行业之间的投入产出关系之后,2006-2008年二位数工业行业的估算结果表明,2006-2008年中国出口的VSS均值达47.1%,约为HIY方法的两倍,可见国外成分整体较高主要源于加工贸易。进一步细分行业的结果显示,资本技术密集型行业出口值中的国外成分显著地高于劳动密集型行业,而科技含量集中的电子设备制品行业的VSS更是高达84%,说明中国出口巨额增长只是某种“假象”,出口品所含技能水平的提升并未反映为国内附加值的同步增长,产业升级步伐缓慢。另外,贸易对象的收入水平与出口品的VSS之间存在一定的正向关系。
关于全球化因素对中国就业结构的影响,总量数据的研究结果表明：(1)进出口贸易的扩张并未提高中国的高技能工人就业比例,该结论与H-O模型一致；FDI与高技能工人就业比例显著正相关,这也验证了Feenstra-Hanson外包理论中有关资本流入如何影响就业结构的基本判断。(2)进口贸易对国内就业结构的负作用主要表现为中间品进口对高技能劳动力的替代效应,而出口贸易对就业结构的不利影响则主要发生在劳动密集型行业。(3)资本技术密集型行业、外资企业及沿海地区的FDI强化了出口贸易对国内就业结构的负面效应。
为进一步考察垂直专业化贸易对国内就业结构的影响,本文还利用2004年的中国工业企业普查数据库(CASIF)和海关贸易数据库(CCTS)对这一作用机制进行实证研究。我们发现：(1)来自OECD等发达国家的中间品进口比重(VSSH)上升有助于提高中国制造业的高技能劳动力就业比例,从亚非拉等低收入国家进口中间品的份额(VSSL)增加将带来劳动力技能水平的相对下降。(2)企业出口比例的提升,尤其是一般出口显著强化了VSSH与高技能劳动力就业比例的正相关性,而加工出口占比的提高则不利于这种相关性的加强。(3)资本深化与高技能劳动力就业之间具有互补关系,但以加工贸易为主的港澳台资本在-定程度上削弱了高技能劳动力的相对需求。
改革开放30年来,中国的产业升级步伐相当缓慢。我们借鉴发展中国家尤其是东亚四小龙的成功经验,对此进行合理解释,并展望了中国未来的产业升级道路选择。一个国家的产业和技术结构从根本上取决于国内要素禀赋,对于中国而言,就业结构升级是产业结构升级的基础。综合理论和实证研究,我们讨论了在全球化进程中,如何成功实现国内就业结构升级的政策含义。
As foreign trade expansion and vertical specialization have become the most significant features of China's economy under globalization, studies on the domestic value-added in export as well as how foreign trade influences industrial upgrading and employment structure become of wide interest.
The proportion between foreign vs domestic contents could be identified by calculating VSS (Vertical Specialization Share) through non-competitive I/O (input-output) tables. Application of such method to Chinese case, however, would result in a serious measurement bias because I/O tables regarding processing trade are not officially released in China. Based on HIY method and by taking account of the significance processing trade has for the value composition of export, this paper is to provide a simplified way to estimating the domestic value-added in China's exports by identifying the import shares of processing export and normal export through different trade patterns.
First, estimation of1153-digit manufacturing industries in2008shows that domestic value-added share in processing trade for all industries weighted by export value is about44%, compared to over90%in ordinary trade. Technologically sophisticated industries, which have experienced the fastest export expansion, have domestic value-added share of less than50%. The paper concludes that the rise on technologically sophisticated exports could be better accounted for by the expansion of processing trade which makes China more deeply integrated into the global value chain.
Second, after taking account of the inter-industry input and output of intermediates imported through normal trade, estimation of2-digit industries from2006to2008shows the average VSS of China's export is about47.1%, almost twice as the estimate given by HIY method, which means that the comparatively high foreign value-added share is largely attributed to the processing trade. Further sub-sector study shows that the foreign value-added shares in capital-and technology-intensive industries are higher than those in labor-intensive industries, and the VSS of electronics products industry, which is technology-intensive, is as high as84%. These indicate that China's huge increase in exports is only an "illusion". The upgrading of skills embodied in exports doesn't turn into simultaneous increase in domestic value-added, which means that China's industrial upgrading is rather slow. In addition, we also find that the income level of trade partners and the VSS of goods exported are positively linked.
As for the influence of globalization on China's employment structure, empirical results based on aggregate data show that:(1) China's trade growth hasn't increased the proportion of highly-skilled workers in employment, which is consistent with the H-O Model. FDI is positively correlated with the proportion of highly skilled workers in employment, verifying the Feenstra-Hanson outsourcing theory about the impact of capital inflow on employment structure.(2) The main negative effect of import on employment structure is that intermediate import substitute for highly-skilled workers, while the negative effects of export on employment structure mainly occur in labor-intensive industries.(3) Capital-and technology-intensive industries, foreign-funded enterprises and FDI in coastal areas amplify the negative effects of export on employment structure.
To further explore the influence of vertical specialization on the employment structure, this paper also conducts an empirical study using the2004data from CASIF and CCTS databases. Results show that:(1) The increase of vertical specialization share of OECD countries (VSSH) is conductive to the increase in China's high-skilled employment share, while the increase of vertical specialization share of low income countries (VSSL) causes the high-skilled employment share to fall.(2) The increase of enterprises'export share, especially the normal export, strengthens the positive correlation between VSSH and the high-skilled employment share, while the increase of processing export share is against this correlation.(3) Capital deepening and the high-skilled employment are complementary to each other, but Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan capital, which is processing trade oriented, weakens the relative demand for highly skilled labor.
In the past30years, China's industrial upgrading has been rather slow. By comparing with successful cases of East Asian Tigers, we want to give reasonable explanation on it and discuss the possible paths for future industrial upgrading. A country's industry and technology structure fundamentally depend on its domestic factor endowment. For China, employment upgrading is the base for industrial upgrading. With theoretical and empirical studies, we discuss the policy implications regarding how to upgrade employment structure under the context of globalization.
引文
1比较有代表性的研究包括伦敦经济学院Robert Wade所著的《Governing the Market》,1992年版。
2参见Rodrik, Dani,2008, "Normalizing Industrial Policy, Commission on Growth and Development," Working Paper No.3.
3张军,2010：《产业升级为何这么难?》,《新民周刊》9月13日。
4在本文中,高技能工人与高技能劳动力、低技能工人与低技能劳动力等概念将视行文方便交互使用。
5在本文中,垂直专业化水平、垂直专业化份额、垂直专业化率,以及垂直专业化程度等概念将视行文方便交互使用。
6此处隐含的假设是技术(投入产出关系)在短期内(即发布投入产出表的前后5年)未发生明显变化,类似的做法可参见Koopman et al. (2008)。
1在中国,官方不仅没有公布非竞争型投入产出表,更没有编制区分加工贸易的非竞争型投入产出表。
2需要指出的是,中国国家统计局公布的投入产出表均为竞争型投入产出表,其最大的缺陷是未能区分各行业所用的中间投入品中哪些来自国内采购,哪些来自国外进口。并且这一投入产出表也未能区分加工贸易模式与一般贸易模式,而仅反映了各行业之间平均意义上的投入产出关系。
3资源流动约束条件(resource flow constraints)即指某行业的加工出口产品的价值必然是国内中间品、进口中间品以及所有初始投入要素(土地、劳动和资本)的价值总和。
4类似的问题在其他的研究中也出现过,譬如Lau et al. (2007)所编制的投入产出表考虑了外商投资企业的生产情况,但他们将外商投资企业的其他生产与非加工出口生产混在了一起。
5更为详细的论述可参见Dean et al. (2008)和张芳(2011)。
62003年的《中国对外经济贸易白皮书》提供的数据显示,外资企业在加工进出口总额中所占比例从1996年的64.5%上升至2002年的75.7%,而国有企业的这一比例从34.1%下降至21%,民营企业则从1.4%上升至3.3%,(商务部,2003)。另有资料显示,2007年上半年,外资企业、国有企业和民营企业在加工贸易额中的比例分别是84%、10%和6%。因此,加工贸易的绝大部分是外资企业完成的。
7有关经验上的直接证据还可参见Koopman et al. (2008)及Dean et al. (2008)的测算结果。
8我们注意到,日本的IDE-JETRO尝试编制了涵盖亚洲9个经济体的跨国的投入产出表。用这个表可以直接估算9个经济体在各自出口中的国内附加值率,但这个投入产出表依然不能很好地把加工出口和一般出口区别开来。另外,一些研究使用的GTAP数据库是另一个非官方的只涵盖少数国家的跨国的投入产出表。但编制跨国的投入产出表并不容易,因为各国在行业的划分以及数据采集中使用的方法并不相同,做出一个标准格式需要很多的折中和调 整,所以编制跨国的投入产出表将是一个巨大的政府间项目。
9类似的结论还可参见Dunford (2006)。
10由于各种技能层次的劳动力跨部门流动现象并未广泛出现,因此部分研究认为,全球化对一国就业技能结构升级所产生的影响并没有想象的那么大。具体可参见Acemoglu (2002)和Goldberg and Pavcnik (2007)等人的研究。
11譬如,Bernard et al. (2007)和Alcala and Hernandez (2009)各自对美国和西班牙的研究,以及Bustos (2007)、Verhoogen (2008)和Molina and Muendler (2009)分别针对阿根廷、墨西哥和巴西等发展中国家的研究均证明了这一点。
12有关理论文献可参见Acemoglu (2003)、Yeaple (2005)、Matsuyama (2007)、Helpman et al. (2008)、Vannoorenberghe (2008)、Verhoogen (2008)、Costinot and Vogel (2009)以及Burstein and Vogel (2010)等人的研究。
13在理论方面,H-O模型建立在完全竞争、劳动力和资本在国内自由流动以及技术固定等极为严格的假设之上。
14较有影响的早期证据可参见Krueger et al.(1981),他们测算了一些发展中国家的制造业在20世纪70年代对外贸易中的要素含量,发现出口产业的技能密集度要低于进口产业。这一结果在其他研究中得到了进一步确认(如Wood,1999)。需要指出的是,已有研究大多没有涉及过去20年的贸易情况,较为典型的是观察到20世纪80年代的数据,并且就要素本身而言,也未能对每个发展中国家的劳动力技能水平进行高低划分。
15具体可参见Schumacher (1984)、Wood (1991,1995,1994)、Sachs and Shatz (1994)、 Learner (1994)、Borjas and Ramey (1995)及Burstein and Vogel (2010)等人的研究。
16类似的结论还可参见Revenga (1997)、Hanson and Harrison (1999)和Feliciano (2001)针对墨西哥,以及Topalova (2004)针对印度的研究。
17 Revenga (1997)、Hanson and Harrison (1999)和Feliciano(2001)针对墨西哥的研究也有类似的发现。
18进一步的实证研究包括Topalova(2004)和Chiquiar(2004)分别发现20世纪80、90年代印度和墨西哥的迁移率都极低。
19需要指出的是,该结论成立的条件是产品价格保持不变,这对大多处于贸易转型的发展中国家,显然过于严苛。
20类似的观点在Cragg and Epelbaum (1996)对墨西哥的研究以及Behrman et al. (2000)对一些拉美国家的研究中也有所体现。
1具体参见Batson Andrew,2010, "Not Really 'Made in China':The iPhone's Complex Supply Chain Highlights Problems with Trade Statistics," http://online.wsj.com/article/SB 10001424052748704828104576021142902413796.html.
2 Xing, Y., and N. Detert,2010, "How the iPhone Widens the United States Deficit with the People's Republic of China,"'ADBI Working Paper No.257.
3这段话的原文见http://www.21 tradenet.com/news_2010-12-20/51550.htm。
4 Rodrik (2006)通过计算反映出口品技术复杂程度的指数发现,出口产品的技术复杂程度通常与一国人均收入水平正相关,即人均收入水平高的国家倾向于出口技术复杂程度高的产品,反之反是。但是与这一普遍规律不同的是,人均收入水平较低的中国却出口了大量含有高度复杂技术的产品。这使得Rodrik将这一发现看成是决定中国经济快速增长的一个重要因素,并认为中国经济未来是否能够维持当前的增长速度在很大程度上取决于中国的出口能否维持这样的技术复杂程度。
5根据对进口商品的处理方法的不同,投入产出表可以分为两种：竞争(进口)型投入产出表和非竞争(进口)型投入产出表。在竞争型投入产出表中,各生产部门消耗的中间投入部分没有区分哪些是本国生产的,哪些是进口的,假定二者可以完全替代,只在最终需求象限中有一个进口列向量。因而,此类投入产出表无法反映各生产部门与进口商品之间的联系。非竞争型投入产出表的中间投入,则分为国内生产的中间投入和进口品中间投入两大部分,反映了二者的不完全替代性。由于竞争型投入产出表存在这样的不足,Hummels et al.(2001)在度量VSS值时选择使用了非竞争型投入产出表。
6类似的研究还可参见张芳(2011)。当然,这样的处理或将产生一定的偏误,譬如进口资本品价值也可能构成了出口产品中进口成分的一个部分,但把资本品纳入某一年出口产品的 进口成分测算就必须考虑将其分期。正如审稿人所指出的那样,要解决这一问题目前还非常困难,但这也构成了后续研究有待改进的一个重要方向。
7感谢诺丁汉大学的王争为我们提供的这个对照表。需要指出的是,该对照表中的HS编码与用于BEC识别进口中间品的HS编码系同一版本。另外,我们注意到,在王争参与的一篇关于解释中国的出口扩张的研究论文中,他们也使用过这个对照表来匹配HS编码的贸易数据与GB/T编码的企业数据。参见Upward, et al. (2010)。
8为了将HS商品编码数据转换到三位数行业,我们做了如下处理：首先,根据已有的HS8位数编码GB/T4位数代码转换表,采用去尾办法,获得HS2位数编码-GB/T3位数代码转换表。其次,由于将这98章数据转换到164个三位数行业,必然会出现某章数据对应于多个三位数行业的情形,为了解决这个问题,我们采用平均的办法：即视HS2位数以下的各商品是均匀分布的,如此一来,某三位数行业的贸易数值就可以由该行业对照于HS2位数出现的次数作为权数进行平均得到。例如,HS编码是11的商品同时对应于GB/T行业代码131(21个对应)、137(4个对应)、139(7个对应)和152(2个对应)。为了将第11章的贸易数据分配到这四个行业,我们就按照21/34、4/34、7/34和2/34这样的权重进行分配。不可否认,这样的平均化处理会给测算结果带来一定的偏误,但考虑到本章所关注的核心问题在于：中国出口的技术复杂产品到底有多少是来自于国内的附加值?由于高技术产业出口品的国外附加值比例显著高于低技术产业,如此一来,这样的平均化处理更可能低估前者的国外附加值比例(VSS),同时高估后者的国外附加值比例(VSS)。因此,这样的偏误并不会影响到本章的基本结论。
9值得一提的是,Upward, et al. (2010)所用的海关数据仅关注纯出口企业,这其中舍弃掉了非纯出口企业的信息,而本章考虑的是2008年全部制造业行业的贸易数据。
10全部分行业的计算结果可参见附录。
1比较有代表性的研究包括伦敦经济学院Robert Wade所著的《Governing the Market)),1992年版。
2参见Rodrik (2008)。
3详情可参见Xing and Detert (2010)。
4图中各HS编码商品所对应的RCA数据备索。
5考虑到加入世贸组织对于中国经济的重要影响,我们还分别考察了1994-2001和2001-2008两个阶段的RCA,结果发现,入世之前的中国对外贸易结构相比之后更为稳定,这也说明我们所观察到的产品结构升级大多发生于中国入世之后。
6资源流动约束条件(resource flow constraints)即指某行业的加工出口产品的价值是国内中间品、进口中间品以及所有初始投入要素(土地、劳动和资本)的价值总和。
7关于KWW方法的缺陷,更为详尽的论述可参见Dean et al. (2008)。
8譬如,考虑一个极端情形,当加工贸易的比例达到100%时,VSNew≥VSHIY。事实上,我们还可以发现,VSNew-VSHIY本身就是加工进口(MP)的增函数。
9事实上,加工贸易所获进口中间品同样需要细分为直接进口和通过国内采购而间接获得。由于无法知晓加工贸易中各行业之间的投入产出关系,我们选择忽略了后者。尽管这样会在一定程度上低估加工贸易的垂直专业化水平,但是考虑到中国的加工贸易主要集中于外资企业,跨国公司出于经营一体化和防止技术优势扩散考虑,往往更多地从公司内部或母国采购中间品,并且国内企业缺乏适当的激励机制和畅通的融资渠道生产中间品,国产中间品规格、质量不稳定,达不到出口品生产要求普遍存在。更为重要的是,现行加工贸易政策偏向鼓励加工贸易中间品进口,而不利于从本地采购。各种因素的综合作用导致中国的加工贸易所使用的中间品本地采购率极低,且多集中于初级产品和劳动密集型工业制成品,并有逐年下降的趋势(廖涵,2003)。因此,这样的处理并不会造成严重的问题。经验上的直接证据还可参见Koopman et al. (2008)。
10 OECD的“进口的中间品流量矩阵”在数据缺失的情况下,将进口中间品区分的办法就是这种“按比例进口假设”。
11由于垂直专业化水平(VSS)表示出口值中的国外附加值比例,即国外成分,与之对应的剩下部分为国内成分。因此,为表述的方便,“国外成分”与“垂直专业化水平”将混合使用以表示出口贸易中的价值构成。
12此处隐含的假设是技术(投入产出关系)在短期内(即发布投入产出表的前后5年)未发生明显变化,类似的做法可参见Koopman et al. (2008)。
13关于资本技术密集型行业和劳动密集型行业的划分标准及具体分类结果可参加附录。
14考虑到加工贸易之后的VSSNEW显著大于未考虑加工贸易的VSSHIY,两者变化趋势却相同,这一结果与Dean et al. (2008)的发现基本一致。
15事实上,测算2006年和2008年的数据可获得类似的结论,限于篇幅,结果备索。
16由于细分各贸易伙伴的HS编码加工贸易数据无法获得,我们在这里仅采用HIY方法测算出口价值中的国外成分(VSSHIY),当然,这样处理会在一定程度上低估那些加工出口占主导地位的贸易伙伴的垂直专业化水平,但是考虑到中国的加工出口主要对应于发达国家或地区,因此利用VSSHIY分析这一问题并未妨碍结论的稳健性。
17类似的结论还可参见Dean et al. (2008)。
18参见中国经济网：http://www.ce.cn/xwzx/gnsz/szyw/200706/17/t20070617_11788868.shtml。
19茅家琦主编,1988,《台湾三十年：1949-1979》,河南人民出版社,第432页。
1在本章中,高技能工人与高技能劳动力、低技能工人与低技能劳动力等概念将视行文方便交互使用。
2资料来源http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-01/11/content 9295021.htm。
3 Rodrik (2006)观察到,与中国出口产品种类构成相似的国家,其人均GDP水平都大大高于中国。Yang et al. (2009)也发现,1980年代以来,中国出口产品的技术构成得到了较大幅度的提升。Amiti and Freund (2010)通过比较1992年和2005年中国的出口产品构成发现,农产品和纺织服装产品占中国出口额的比例显著下降,而计算机及其他电子产品在出口中的比例则有大幅的上升。Wang and Wei (2010)通过将中国出口产品的种类与发达国家 对比,发现G3国家出口而中国没有出口的产品种类从1996年的101种下降到2005年的83种,分别占所有产品种数的2.44%和1.97%。
4数据来源：《中国统计年鉴(2009)》。
5详情可参见Xing and Detert (2010)。
6具体推导和关键性假定可参见Haskel and Slaughter (2002)。
7事实上,这也是此类研究的普遍做法(Helg and Tajoli,2004).究其原因,除了产业内劳动力流动所产生的影响之外,以下两种考虑也是重要的：(1)相对工资变化本身并不是外生的,而是由于技能水平的差异所致,这样的内生性问题将会严重影响模型的估计结果(Hsieh and Woo,2005); (2)就中国而言,无论是行业还是地区层面,各种技能水平的相对工资数据均难以获得。
8需要指出的是,Berman et al. (1994)和Feenstra and Hanson (1996b,1999)均采用变量差分形式进行经验考察,但这一做法显然不适合本研究。这是因为,当样本期≥2,误差项不存在严重序列相关时,一阶差分法估计静态面板模型并非最优选择(Wooldridge,2000),并且,差分处理也容易放大可能存在的各种变量测度误差,从而影响估计结果的准确性(Griliches and Hausman,1986; Hijzen et al.,2005)。
92004年和2008年对应的FDI-k分别采用1995年和2004年的FDI数据。由于细分行业和企业注册类型的FDI数据仅限于普查资料才能获得,因此在这两个维度上,1995年所对应的FDI-k采用1985年的普查数据。而各地区1995年之前的FDI数据相对较多,我们最终选择1993年的FDI作为1995年地区维度上的FDI-k。
10具体的行业分类参见附录。由于建筑业部分数据缺失,采矿业过多的集中于资源密集型行业,电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业中的水的生产和供应业进口数据无法通过文中所述方法获得,因此这3部分在样本中剔除。
11本章所指的内资企业包括：国有、集体、股份合作、国有联营、集体联营、国有与集体联营、其他联营、国有独资公司、其他有限责任公司、股份有限公司、私营独资、私营合伙、私营有限责任公司、私营股份有限公司以及其他内资等15类。外资企业包括：与港澳台合资经营、与港澳台合作经营、港澳台商独资、港澳台商投资股份有限公司、中外合资经营、中外合作经营、外资企业以及外商投资股份有限公司等8类。
12沿海地区包括：北京、天津、辽宁、河北、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东和海南,其他省市自治区划为内陆地区,且重庆的数据并入四川。
13按照HS编码的细分商品进口数据来自《中国对外经济统计年鉴(1996)》以及《中国贸易外经统计年鉴(2006、2009)》。
14本章采用静态面板数据分析中的固定效应(FE)和随机效应(RE)模型进行系数估计,但鉴于两者的估计结果相近,且Hausman检验均拒绝了RE模型的原假设,因此,我们仅 报告FE模型估计结果并据此展开分析。
15类似的结论在Gorg et al. (2001)和Anderton et al. (2001)分别针对英国和瑞典的研究中也可得到。
16我们在此还考虑了一般进口的影响,结果发现效果并不显著,限于篇幅,具体结果备索。
17为考察FDI通过出口贸易影响到国内就业结构这一作用机制,我们还将交互项(EXP×FDI-k)替换为对应的各地区外资企业出口变量,回归结果并未发生显著的变化。限于篇幅,具体结果备索。
1在本章中,高技能工人与高技能劳动力、低技能工人与低技能劳动力等概念将视行文方便交互使用。
2具体可参见http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hqgi/iryw/2011-01-05/content_1522685.html.
3我们还发现,倘若按照Hummels et al. (2001)方法测算中国宏观层面譬如行业或者地区的垂直专业化份额,将会遇到非常大的困难。一方面,中国官方所公布的投入产出表均为竞争型,即无法区分各行业所用的中间投入品中哪些来自国内采购,哪些来自国外进口。另一方面,加工贸易模式往往含有更高的进口中间品比例,但已有的投入产出表未能区分加工贸易模式与一般贸易模式,而仅反映了各行业之间平均意义上的投入产出关系,这也将对VSS测算结果产生很大的偏差。关于此类问题的研究可参见Lau et al. (2007)、Dean et al. (2007, 2008)、Koopman et al. (2008)和Zhang et al. (2012)。
4类似的研究还可参见张芳(2011)。当然,这样的处理或将产生一定的偏误,譬如进口资本品价值也可能构成了出口产品中进口成分的一个部分,但把资本品纳入某一年出口产品的进口成分测算就必须考虑将其分期。要解决这一问题目前还非常困难,但这也构成了后续研究有待改进的一个重要方向。
5根据加工贸易的规定,在一般贸易模式下进口的中间产品不能用于加工出口。
6尽管我们已厘清加工贸易对于中国垂直专业化份额的影响,但由于一般出口品和国内销售品两者之间所用进口中间品的真实比例我们依然无法确知,这将可能给VSS测算结果带来一定的偏误。另外需要指出的是,包含在企业i中的进口中间品不仅来源于本企业的直接进口,而且还可通过向国内其他企业采购环节间接获得。因此这一测算公式同样可能低估了真实的垂直专业化份额。但是,考虑到本章的研究目标在于垂直专业化贸易对国内就业结构的影响,来自其他企业的或者行业的中间品进口对于本企业就业结构的作用并不显著(Strauss-Kahn,2004)。
7在一个标准化分析中,这应该是一个较为合理的假设。需要注意的是,我们此处的高低技能跨国比较仅针对平均意义上而言,穷国中较少规模的特别高技能工人和富国中较少规模的特别低技能工人的存在,并未改变模型的主要结论。
8这是因为,(?)ln(NH/NL)/(?)1n(μ/(1-μ))+(?)ln(NH/NL)/(?)ln(H/L)= 2σ-1。当技能偏向型技术进步对高技能劳动力相对需求的影响为正时,2σ-1>0,即σ>1/2。
9也有类似的研究采用gamma函数形式(如Acemoglu,1998),但我们容易证明,特定参数条件下gamma分布函数可等同于指数分布,即X～exp(β)～gamma(1,β)。
10如定义,与A国的垂直专业化贸易(VSSA)是指单位出口品中所含A国进口的中间品价值。
11考虑到这些因素的类似研究可参见Berman et al. (1994). Brenton and Pinna (2001)、Egger et al. (2001)、Anderton et al. (2001)以及Strauss-Kahn (2002)。
12需要指出的是,工业普查中的出口交货值既包括本企业自营出口的产品价值,也包括通过贸易公司代理出口的产品价值。
132008年开展了第二次全国经济普查,但这一年的CASIF数据库并未包含企业员工的技能结构信息。
14 CASIF数据库中的出口企业约占25%,而这些出口企业中又大约仅有50%出现在匹配样本中。导致这一结果的最主要原因在于许多制造企业通过进出口代理或贸易公司出口,而非自营出口。最终,我们还对匹配后的样本按照一定标准进行了部分剔除(譬如存在重要变量数据缺失、产值为负、销售产值小于出口交货值等),以便获得可供分析的可靠样本。
15类似的研究可参见Feeestra and Hanson (1996,1999)以及Autor et al. (1998)。
16由于截面数据较容易产生异方差现象,一种通用的处理方法是,我们依然进行OLS回归,但使用稳健标准差。事实上,只要样本容量较大,即使在异方差的情况下,若使用稳健标准差,则所有参数估计、假设检验均可照常进行。在大多数情况下,“OLS+稳健标准差”是有效的(Stock and Watson,2004)。另外,基于截面数据估计时,自相关也并不是一个特别值得关注的问题。
17应该说,对于资本相对稀缺的发展中国家而言,资本深化与高技能工人之间的互补关系较为普遍,类似的结论还可参见Pavcnik(2003)针对智利的一项实证研究。
18类似的结论在Gorg et al. (2001)和Anderton et al. (2001)分别针对英国和瑞典的研究中也可得到。
19沿海地区包括：北京、天津、辽宁、河北、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东和海南,其他省市自治区划为内陆地区。
20如前所述,由于一般贸易和加工贸易占据了贸易总额的绝对比重(2004年的这一比例约为97%),本章仅考虑这两大类贸易模式。
21这类似于代理变量的“多余性”要求,如果工具变量(IMP)与扰动项相关,则IMP对就业结构的影响必然还有除垂直专业化份额变量(VSSH和VSSL)以外的渠道。
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2参见Rodrik, Dani,2008, "Normalizing Industrial Policy, Commission on Growth and Development," Working Paper No.3.
3张军,2010：《产业升级为何这么难?》,《新民周刊》9月13日。
4在本文中,高技能工人与高技能劳动力、低技能工人与低技能劳动力等概念将视行文方便交互使用。
5在本文中,垂直专业化水平、垂直专业化份额、垂直专业化率,以及垂直专业化程度等概念将视行文方便交互使用。
6此处隐含的假设是技术(投入产出关系)在短期内(即发布投入产出表的前后5年)未发生明显变化,类似的做法可参见Koopman et al. (2008)。
1在中国,官方不仅没有公布非竞争型投入产出表,更没有编制区分加工贸易的非竞争型投入产出表。
2需要指出的是,中国国家统计局公布的投入产出表均为竞争型投入产出表,其最大的缺陷是未能区分各行业所用的中间投入品中哪些来自国内采购,哪些来自国外进口。并且这一投入产出表也未能区分加工贸易模式与一般贸易模式,而仅反映了各行业之间平均意义上的投入产出关系。
3资源流动约束条件(resource flow constraints)即指某行业的加工出口产品的价值必然是国内中间品、进口中间品以及所有初始投入要素(土地、劳动和资本)的价值总和。
4类似的问题在其他的研究中也出现过,譬如Lau et al. (2007)所编制的投入产出表考虑了外商投资企业的生产情况,但他们将外商投资企业的其他生产与非加工出口生产混在了一起。
5更为详细的论述可参见Dean et al. (2008)和张芳(2011)。
62003年的《中国对外经济贸易白皮书》提供的数据显示,外资企业在加工进出口总额中所占比例从1996年的64.5%上升至2002年的75.7%,而国有企业的这一比例从34.1%下降至21%,民营企业则从1.4%上升至3.3%,(商务部,2003)。另有资料显示,2007年上半年,外资企业、国有企业和民营企业在加工贸易额中的比例分别是84%、10%和6%。因此,加工贸易的绝大部分是外资企业完成的。
7有关经验上的直接证据还可参见Koopman et al. (2008)及Dean et al. (2008)的测算结果。
8我们注意到,日本的IDE-JETRO尝试编制了涵盖亚洲9个经济体的跨国的投入产出表。用这个表可以直接估算9个经济体在各自出口中的国内附加值率,但这个投入产出表依然不能很好地把加工出口和一般出口区别开来。另外,一些研究使用的GTAP数据库是另一个非官方的只涵盖少数国家的跨国的投入产出表。但编制跨国的投入产出表并不容易,因为各国在行业的划分以及数据采集中使用的方法并不相同,做出一个标准格式需要很多的折中和调 整,所以编制跨国的投入产出表将是一个巨大的政府间项目。
9类似的结论还可参见Dunford (2006)。
10由于各种技能层次的劳动力跨部门流动现象并未广泛出现,因此部分研究认为,全球化对一国就业技能结构升级所产生的影响并没有想象的那么大。具体可参见Acemoglu (2002)和Goldberg and Pavcnik (2007)等人的研究。
11譬如,Bernard et al. (2007)和Alcala and Hernandez (2009)各自对美国和西班牙的研究,以及Bustos (2007)、Verhoogen (2008)和Molina and Muendler (2009)分别针对阿根廷、墨西哥和巴西等发展中国家的研究均证明了这一点。
12有关理论文献可参见Acemoglu (2003)、Yeaple (2005)、Matsuyama (2007)、Helpman et al. (2008)、Vannoorenberghe (2008)、Verhoogen (2008)、Costinot and Vogel (2009)以及Burstein and Vogel (2010)等人的研究。
13在理论方面,H-O模型建立在完全竞争、劳动力和资本在国内自由流动以及技术固定等极为严格的假设之上。
14较有影响的早期证据可参见Krueger et al.(1981),他们测算了一些发展中国家的制造业在20世纪70年代对外贸易中的要素含量,发现出口产业的技能密集度要低于进口产业。这一结果在其他研究中得到了进一步确认(如Wood,1999)。需要指出的是,已有研究大多没有涉及过去20年的贸易情况,较为典型的是观察到20世纪80年代的数据,并且就要素本身而言,也未能对每个发展中国家的劳动力技能水平进行高低划分。
15具体可参见Schumacher (1984)、Wood (1991,1995,1994)、Sachs and Shatz (1994)、 Learner (1994)、Borjas and Ramey (1995)及Burstein and Vogel (2010)等人的研究。
16类似的结论还可参见Revenga (1997)、Hanson and Harrison (1999)和Feliciano (2001)针对墨西哥,以及Topalova (2004)针对印度的研究。
17 Revenga (1997)、Hanson and Harrison (1999)和Feliciano(2001)针对墨西哥的研究也有类似的发现。
18进一步的实证研究包括Topalova(2004)和Chiquiar(2004)分别发现20世纪80、90年代印度和墨西哥的迁移率都极低。
19需要指出的是,该结论成立的条件是产品价格保持不变,这对大多处于贸易转型的发展中国家,显然过于严苛。
20类似的观点在Cragg and Epelbaum (1996)对墨西哥的研究以及Behrman et al. (2000)对一些拉美国家的研究中也有所体现。
1具体参见Batson Andrew,2010, "Not Really 'Made in China':The iPhone's Complex Supply Chain Highlights Problems with Trade Statistics," http://online.wsj.com/article/SB 10001424052748704828104576021142902413796.html.
2 Xing, Y., and N. Detert,2010, "How the iPhone Widens the United States Deficit with the People's Republic of China,"'ADBI Working Paper No.257.
3这段话的原文见http://www.21 tradenet.com/news_2010-12-20/51550.htm。
4 Rodrik (2006)通过计算反映出口品技术复杂程度的指数发现,出口产品的技术复杂程度通常与一国人均收入水平正相关,即人均收入水平高的国家倾向于出口技术复杂程度高的产品,反之反是。但是与这一普遍规律不同的是,人均收入水平较低的中国却出口了大量含有高度复杂技术的产品。这使得Rodrik将这一发现看成是决定中国经济快速增长的一个重要因素,并认为中国经济未来是否能够维持当前的增长速度在很大程度上取决于中国的出口能否维持这样的技术复杂程度。
5根据对进口商品的处理方法的不同,投入产出表可以分为两种：竞争(进口)型投入产出表和非竞争(进口)型投入产出表。在竞争型投入产出表中,各生产部门消耗的中间投入部分没有区分哪些是本国生产的,哪些是进口的,假定二者可以完全替代,只在最终需求象限中有一个进口列向量。因而,此类投入产出表无法反映各生产部门与进口商品之间的联系。非竞争型投入产出表的中间投入,则分为国内生产的中间投入和进口品中间投入两大部分,反映了二者的不完全替代性。由于竞争型投入产出表存在这样的不足,Hummels et al.(2001)在度量VSS值时选择使用了非竞争型投入产出表。
6类似的研究还可参见张芳(2011)。当然,这样的处理或将产生一定的偏误,譬如进口资本品价值也可能构成了出口产品中进口成分的一个部分,但把资本品纳入某一年出口产品的 进口成分测算就必须考虑将其分期。正如审稿人所指出的那样,要解决这一问题目前还非常困难,但这也构成了后续研究有待改进的一个重要方向。
7感谢诺丁汉大学的王争为我们提供的这个对照表。需要指出的是,该对照表中的HS编码与用于BEC识别进口中间品的HS编码系同一版本。另外,我们注意到,在王争参与的一篇关于解释中国的出口扩张的研究论文中,他们也使用过这个对照表来匹配HS编码的贸易数据与GB/T编码的企业数据。参见Upward, et al. (2010)。
8为了将HS商品编码数据转换到三位数行业,我们做了如下处理：首先,根据已有的HS8位数编码GB/T4位数代码转换表,采用去尾办法,获得HS2位数编码-GB/T3位数代码转换表。其次,由于将这98章数据转换到164个三位数行业,必然会出现某章数据对应于多个三位数行业的情形,为了解决这个问题,我们采用平均的办法：即视HS2位数以下的各商品是均匀分布的,如此一来,某三位数行业的贸易数值就可以由该行业对照于HS2位数出现的次数作为权数进行平均得到。例如,HS编码是11的商品同时对应于GB/T行业代码131(21个对应)、137(4个对应)、139(7个对应)和152(2个对应)。为了将第11章的贸易数据分配到这四个行业,我们就按照21/34、4/34、7/34和2/34这样的权重进行分配。不可否认,这样的平均化处理会给测算结果带来一定的偏误,但考虑到本章所关注的核心问题在于：中国出口的技术复杂产品到底有多少是来自于国内的附加值?由于高技术产业出口品的国外附加值比例显著高于低技术产业,如此一来,这样的平均化处理更可能低估前者的国外附加值比例(VSS),同时高估后者的国外附加值比例(VSS)。因此,这样的偏误并不会影响到本章的基本结论。
9值得一提的是,Upward, et al. (2010)所用的海关数据仅关注纯出口企业,这其中舍弃掉了非纯出口企业的信息,而本章考虑的是2008年全部制造业行业的贸易数据。
10全部分行业的计算结果可参见附录。
1比较有代表性的研究包括伦敦经济学院Robert Wade所著的《Governing the Market)),1992年版。
2参见Rodrik (2008)。
3详情可参见Xing and Detert (2010)。
4图中各HS编码商品所对应的RCA数据备索。
5考虑到加入世贸组织对于中国经济的重要影响,我们还分别考察了1994-2001和2001-2008两个阶段的RCA,结果发现,入世之前的中国对外贸易结构相比之后更为稳定,这也说明我们所观察到的产品结构升级大多发生于中国入世之后。
6资源流动约束条件(resource flow constraints)即指某行业的加工出口产品的价值是国内中间品、进口中间品以及所有初始投入要素(土地、劳动和资本)的价值总和。
7关于KWW方法的缺陷,更为详尽的论述可参见Dean et al. (2008)。
8譬如,考虑一个极端情形,当加工贸易的比例达到100%时,VSNew≥VSHIY。事实上,我们还可以发现,VSNew-VSHIY本身就是加工进口(MP)的增函数。
9事实上,加工贸易所获进口中间品同样需要细分为直接进口和通过国内采购而间接获得。由于无法知晓加工贸易中各行业之间的投入产出关系,我们选择忽略了后者。尽管这样会在一定程度上低估加工贸易的垂直专业化水平,但是考虑到中国的加工贸易主要集中于外资企业,跨国公司出于经营一体化和防止技术优势扩散考虑,往往更多地从公司内部或母国采购中间品,并且国内企业缺乏适当的激励机制和畅通的融资渠道生产中间品,国产中间品规格、质量不稳定,达不到出口品生产要求普遍存在。更为重要的是,现行加工贸易政策偏向鼓励加工贸易中间品进口,而不利于从本地采购。各种因素的综合作用导致中国的加工贸易所使用的中间品本地采购率极低,且多集中于初级产品和劳动密集型工业制成品,并有逐年下降的趋势(廖涵,2003)。因此,这样的处理并不会造成严重的问题。经验上的直接证据还可参见Koopman et al. (2008)。
10 OECD的“进口的中间品流量矩阵”在数据缺失的情况下,将进口中间品区分的办法就是这种“按比例进口假设”。
11由于垂直专业化水平(VSS)表示出口值中的国外附加值比例,即国外成分,与之对应的剩下部分为国内成分。因此,为表述的方便,“国外成分”与“垂直专业化水平”将混合使用以表示出口贸易中的价值构成。
12此处隐含的假设是技术(投入产出关系)在短期内(即发布投入产出表的前后5年)未发生明显变化,类似的做法可参见Koopman et al. (2008)。
13关于资本技术密集型行业和劳动密集型行业的划分标准及具体分类结果可参加附录。
14考虑到加工贸易之后的VSSNEW显著大于未考虑加工贸易的VSSHIY,两者变化趋势却相同,这一结果与Dean et al. (2008)的发现基本一致。
15事实上,测算2006年和2008年的数据可获得类似的结论,限于篇幅,结果备索。
16由于细分各贸易伙伴的HS编码加工贸易数据无法获得,我们在这里仅采用HIY方法测算出口价值中的国外成分(VSSHIY),当然,这样处理会在一定程度上低估那些加工出口占主导地位的贸易伙伴的垂直专业化水平,但是考虑到中国的加工出口主要对应于发达国家或地区,因此利用VSSHIY分析这一问题并未妨碍结论的稳健性。
17类似的结论还可参见Dean et al. (2008)。
18参见中国经济网：http://www.ce.cn/xwzx/gnsz/szyw/200706/17/t20070617_11788868.shtml。
19茅家琦主编,1988,《台湾三十年：1949-1979》,河南人民出版社,第432页。
1在本章中,高技能工人与高技能劳动力、低技能工人与低技能劳动力等概念将视行文方便交互使用。
2资料来源http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-01/11/content 9295021.htm。
3 Rodrik (2006)观察到,与中国出口产品种类构成相似的国家,其人均GDP水平都大大高于中国。Yang et al. (2009)也发现,1980年代以来,中国出口产品的技术构成得到了较大幅度的提升。Amiti and Freund (2010)通过比较1992年和2005年中国的出口产品构成发现,农产品和纺织服装产品占中国出口额的比例显著下降,而计算机及其他电子产品在出口中的比例则有大幅的上升。Wang and Wei (2010)通过将中国出口产品的种类与发达国家 对比,发现G3国家出口而中国没有出口的产品种类从1996年的101种下降到2005年的83种,分别占所有产品种数的2.44%和1.97%。
4数据来源：《中国统计年鉴(2009)》。
5详情可参见Xing and Detert (2010)。
6具体推导和关键性假定可参见Haskel and Slaughter (2002)。
7事实上,这也是此类研究的普遍做法(Helg and Tajoli,2004).究其原因,除了产业内劳动力流动所产生的影响之外,以下两种考虑也是重要的：(1)相对工资变化本身并不是外生的,而是由于技能水平的差异所致,这样的内生性问题将会严重影响模型的估计结果(Hsieh and Woo,2005); (2)就中国而言,无论是行业还是地区层面,各种技能水平的相对工资数据均难以获得。
8需要指出的是,Berman et al. (1994)和Feenstra and Hanson (1996b,1999)均采用变量差分形式进行经验考察,但这一做法显然不适合本研究。这是因为,当样本期≥2,误差项不存在严重序列相关时,一阶差分法估计静态面板模型并非最优选择(Wooldridge,2000),并且,差分处理也容易放大可能存在的各种变量测度误差,从而影响估计结果的准确性(Griliches and Hausman,1986; Hijzen et al.,2005)。
92004年和2008年对应的FDI-k分别采用1995年和2004年的FDI数据。由于细分行业和企业注册类型的FDI数据仅限于普查资料才能获得,因此在这两个维度上,1995年所对应的FDI-k采用1985年的普查数据。而各地区1995年之前的FDI数据相对较多,我们最终选择1993年的FDI作为1995年地区维度上的FDI-k。
10具体的行业分类参见附录。由于建筑业部分数据缺失,采矿业过多的集中于资源密集型行业,电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业中的水的生产和供应业进口数据无法通过文中所述方法获得,因此这3部分在样本中剔除。
11本章所指的内资企业包括：国有、集体、股份合作、国有联营、集体联营、国有与集体联营、其他联营、国有独资公司、其他有限责任公司、股份有限公司、私营独资、私营合伙、私营有限责任公司、私营股份有限公司以及其他内资等15类。外资企业包括：与港澳台合资经营、与港澳台合作经营、港澳台商独资、港澳台商投资股份有限公司、中外合资经营、中外合作经营、外资企业以及外商投资股份有限公司等8类。
12沿海地区包括：北京、天津、辽宁、河北、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东和海南,其他省市自治区划为内陆地区,且重庆的数据并入四川。
13按照HS编码的细分商品进口数据来自《中国对外经济统计年鉴(1996)》以及《中国贸易外经统计年鉴(2006、2009)》。
14本章采用静态面板数据分析中的固定效应(FE)和随机效应(RE)模型进行系数估计,但鉴于两者的估计结果相近,且Hausman检验均拒绝了RE模型的原假设,因此,我们仅 报告FE模型估计结果并据此展开分析。
15类似的结论在Gorg et al. (2001)和Anderton et al. (2001)分别针对英国和瑞典的研究中也可得到。
16我们在此还考虑了一般进口的影响,结果发现效果并不显著,限于篇幅,具体结果备索。
17为考察FDI通过出口贸易影响到国内就业结构这一作用机制,我们还将交互项(EXP×FDI-k)替换为对应的各地区外资企业出口变量,回归结果并未发生显著的变化。限于篇幅,具体结果备索。
1在本章中,高技能工人与高技能劳动力、低技能工人与低技能劳动力等概念将视行文方便交互使用。
2具体可参见http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hqgi/iryw/2011-01-05/content_1522685.html.
3我们还发现,倘若按照Hummels et al. (2001)方法测算中国宏观层面譬如行业或者地区的垂直专业化份额,将会遇到非常大的困难。一方面,中国官方所公布的投入产出表均为竞争型,即无法区分各行业所用的中间投入品中哪些来自国内采购,哪些来自国外进口。另一方面,加工贸易模式往往含有更高的进口中间品比例,但已有的投入产出表未能区分加工贸易模式与一般贸易模式,而仅反映了各行业之间平均意义上的投入产出关系,这也将对VSS测算结果产生很大的偏差。关于此类问题的研究可参见Lau et al. (2007)、Dean et al. (2007, 2008)、Koopman et al. (2008)和Zhang et al. (2012)。
4类似的研究还可参见张芳(2011)。当然,这样的处理或将产生一定的偏误,譬如进口资本品价值也可能构成了出口产品中进口成分的一个部分,但把资本品纳入某一年出口产品的进口成分测算就必须考虑将其分期。要解决这一问题目前还非常困难,但这也构成了后续研究有待改进的一个重要方向。
5根据加工贸易的规定,在一般贸易模式下进口的中间产品不能用于加工出口。
6尽管我们已厘清加工贸易对于中国垂直专业化份额的影响,但由于一般出口品和国内销售品两者之间所用进口中间品的真实比例我们依然无法确知,这将可能给VSS测算结果带来一定的偏误。另外需要指出的是,包含在企业i中的进口中间品不仅来源于本企业的直接进口,而且还可通过向国内其他企业采购环节间接获得。因此这一测算公式同样可能低估了真实的垂直专业化份额。但是,考虑到本章的研究目标在于垂直专业化贸易对国内就业结构的影响,来自其他企业的或者行业的中间品进口对于本企业就业结构的作用并不显著(Strauss-Kahn,2004)。
7在一个标准化分析中,这应该是一个较为合理的假设。需要注意的是,我们此处的高低技能跨国比较仅针对平均意义上而言,穷国中较少规模的特别高技能工人和富国中较少规模的特别低技能工人的存在,并未改变模型的主要结论。
8这是因为,(?)ln(NH/NL)/(?)1n(μ/(1-μ))+(?)ln(NH/NL)/(?)ln(H/L)= 2σ-1。当技能偏向型技术进步对高技能劳动力相对需求的影响为正时,2σ-1>0,即σ>1/2。
9也有类似的研究采用gamma函数形式(如Acemoglu,1998),但我们容易证明,特定参数条件下gamma分布函数可等同于指数分布,即X～exp(β)～gamma(1,β)。
10如定义,与A国的垂直专业化贸易(VSSA)是指单位出口品中所含A国进口的中间品价值。
11考虑到这些因素的类似研究可参见Berman et al. (1994). Brenton and Pinna (2001)、Egger et al. (2001)、Anderton et al. (2001)以及Strauss-Kahn (2002)。
12需要指出的是,工业普查中的出口交货值既包括本企业自营出口的产品价值,也包括通过贸易公司代理出口的产品价值。
132008年开展了第二次全国经济普查,但这一年的CASIF数据库并未包含企业员工的技能结构信息。
14 CASIF数据库中的出口企业约占25%,而这些出口企业中又大约仅有50%出现在匹配样本中。导致这一结果的最主要原因在于许多制造企业通过进出口代理或贸易公司出口,而非自营出口。最终,我们还对匹配后的样本按照一定标准进行了部分剔除(譬如存在重要变量数据缺失、产值为负、销售产值小于出口交货值等),以便获得可供分析的可靠样本。
15类似的研究可参见Feeestra and Hanson (1996,1999)以及Autor et al. (1998)。
16由于截面数据较容易产生异方差现象,一种通用的处理方法是,我们依然进行OLS回归,但使用稳健标准差。事实上,只要样本容量较大,即使在异方差的情况下,若使用稳健标准差,则所有参数估计、假设检验均可照常进行。在大多数情况下,“OLS+稳健标准差”是有效的(Stock and Watson,2004)。另外,基于截面数据估计时,自相关也并不是一个特别值得关注的问题。
17应该说,对于资本相对稀缺的发展中国家而言,资本深化与高技能工人之间的互补关系较为普遍,类似的结论还可参见Pavcnik(2003)针对智利的一项实证研究。
18类似的结论在Gorg et al. (2001)和Anderton et al. (2001)分别针对英国和瑞典的研究中也可得到。
19沿海地区包括：北京、天津、辽宁、河北、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东和海南,其他省市自治区划为内陆地区。
20如前所述,由于一般贸易和加工贸易占据了贸易总额的绝对比重(2004年的这一比例约为97%),本章仅考虑这两大类贸易模式。
21这类似于代理变量的“多余性”要求,如果工具变量(IMP)与扰动项相关,则IMP对就业结构的影响必然还有除垂直专业化份额变量(VSSH和VSSL)以外的渠道。
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