人民币汇率制度的选择
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摘要
在全球经济日益一体化的今天,汇率作为联系一国内外经济的纽带在经济发展中的作用日益突出,大国汇率制度的选择和实施对于该国经济乃至世界经济都会产生十分深远的影响。改革开放以来,我国在经济建设上取得了世人瞩目的成就,特别是近年来,伴随着中国经济在世界经济中地位的不断提升以及人民币升值压力的持续增加,人民币汇率制度选择问题已日渐成为各界关注的焦点问题之一。鉴于此,笔者希望通过对人民币汇率制度问题进行科学系统的理论分析和实证研究,为当前和今后人民币汇率制度的选择和实施提供些许的参考和帮助。首先,本文系统地研究了建国以来人民币汇率制度发展的历程,着重分析了2005年7月21日汇改之前人民币钉住美元的汇率制度与我国经济发展的不适应性以及现行汇率制度对这些不适应性的纠正,并且运用BEER模型对人民币长期均衡汇率进行了估计,从而得出了现行汇率制度为当前人民币汇率制度最优选择的结论。同时,结合波兰、智利、泰国等国中间汇率制退出的实践,分别从第一代、第二代和第三代货币危机理论的角度分析了中间汇率制不可持续的内在机理。此外,本文依据M-F模型分析了人民币资本项目开放后人民币汇率制度向自由浮动汇率制过渡的必然性,并且运用抵补利率平价理论阐释了资本项目开放后钉住汇率制影响货币政策独立性的过程。最后,本文讨论了人民币汇率制度改革的目标和配套措施,提出,人民币汇率制度改革的近期目标应该是增强人民币汇率弹性,不断完善有管理的浮动汇率制,远期目标则应该是实现自由浮动汇率制。
Today, China's economy has fully integrated into the world economy. The RMB exchange rate issue has become a focal point in the field of international finance. In the view of our development process, our foreign exchange regime was highly centralized and unified before China’s reform and opening up. And during this period, our foreign exchange regime was entirely determined by the Government and the market mechanism has completely ignored. Between 1979 and 1993, the market-oriented factors gradually appeared in China’s foreign exchange regime. At the same time, the“Dual Exchange Rate Regime”was determined which included the internal trade price and the announced exchange rate. In 1994, the merger of RMB exchange rate regimes achieved and the single managed floating exchange rate regime which was based on market supply and demand was determined too. Actually, Chinese Yuan to US dollar exchange rate had been stabilized at 8.27 for a long time after a slight appreciation during 1994~1996. Therefore, RMB was pegged to US dollar at this stage. July 21, 2005, the PBC issued a public notice, China began to implement a market-based and managed floating exchange rate regime which was regulated by the references to a basket of currencies. And at the same time, the RMB exchange rate to US dollar was one-off revaluated to 102% which marked the RMB exchange rate regime had embarked on a more flexible and more market-oriented path. Nevertheless, the choice problem of the RMB exchange rate regime still exists. And because of RMB is becoming more convertible and the pressure of RMB appreciation is reincreasing, the RMB exchange rate regime should be more flexible or more stable or even return to the fixed exchange rate regime is still very worthy to be studied.
Broadly speaking, the goals of exchange rate regime are same with the goals of the government’s macroeconomic policies and the ultimate goal of macroeconomic policy is to balance a country’s external and internal economy. Therefore, the goal to chose the exchange rate regime is at least to some extent to realize the balance between one country’s external and internal economy. Actually, the RMB exchange rate was pegged to US dollar for a long time since the 1997 Asian financial crisis to“7.21”exchange rate reform. This kind of exchange rate arrangement played a positive role in a more stable foreign exchange market and also developed the trade and attracted more foreign investments. But in recent years, the constraints of the fixed exchange rate regime on China’s economy have gradually become more apparent. In this case, the undervalued real exchange rate has fairly increased the surplus of our international balance of payments and affected the independence of our monetary policies and also made the lagging development of China’s foreign exchange market. After the“7.21”exchange rate reform, the current exchange rate regime is apparently promoting the independence of our monetary policies and the initiative and flexibility of the exchange rate adjustment. And the current exchange rate regime which is promoting the development of China’s economy should be the optimal choice currently.
Actually, China’s current exchange rate regime is a combination of the“central rate”managed floating exchange rate regime and the“BBC”regime and also possesses both the property from the floating exchange rate regime and the fixed exchange rate regime. According to the latest exchange rate regimes classification(IMF, 1999), China’s current exchange rate regime should be categorized to the“Intermediate Exchange Rate Regimes”. In the view of the practices of many countries, with the continuous economic development and openness, some countries’exchange rate regimes transited from the traditional fixed exchange rate regime to those which have a greater fluctuation range and chose the free floating exchange rate regime finally. In contrast, other countries and territories formed a currency union or the“Currency Board”regime. From the theoretical point of view, the first generation of currency crisis theories suggested that it is hard to reconcile the contradictions between the credit expansion from government and the fixed exchange rate regime. The second generation of currency crisis theories placed greater emphasis on market expectations and government’s discretionary policies and demonstrated that any adjustable exchange rate regime between free floating exchange rate regime and monetary union is difficult to sustain. As one of the third generation of currency crisis theories, the“Moral Hazard”theory stressed only the bipolar exchange rate regimes can reduce the super-risk premium to its minimum, therefore, the intermediate exchange rate regimes are not sustainable. And the“Original Sin”theory illustrated that the intermediate exchange rate regimes are not sustainable for“Currency Mismatch”and“Maturity Mismatch”.
Capital account, which is mainly used to record domestic and foreign capital flows, can reflect the changes about one country’s assets and liabilities including the capital flows that relate to loans and investments. And opening capital account means to liberalize capital transactions. In the long run, the RMB capital account openness has its necessity: First, after the accession to WTO, China will phase out the restrictions to the Chinese businesses of foreign institutions. Therefore, foreign banks can indirectly achieve RMB and other currencies totally convertible by the pledge loan between RMB and foreign currencies thus bypass the capital controls in general sense. Second, China’s rapid economic development requires the RMB capital account open. Because of the contacts between china and other countries are increasingly close, strict control of capital account will no longer adapt to the new situation of economic development. Third, China’s rapid economic development and the internationalization of financial services accelerate the internationalization of RMB and the restrictions on RMB capital account will become a yoke. Finally, the openness of RMB capital account will provide opportunities for the reform of China’s financial system and mechanism. Actually, the openness of RMB capital account is an inevitable result and an internal requirement of China’s economic development. At the same time, the independence of monetary policies is particularly important to our economic development. Therefore, in the gradual opening process of the RMB capital account, the choice of RMB exchange rate regimes should be a process with flexibility and marketization and the final choice should be the free floating exchange rate regime. Besides, the M-F model can explain this thesis well. In addition, according to the“Covered Interest Parity”theory, we can differentiate the influences that different exchange rate regimes effecting on the independence of monetary policy in terms of the interest rate and exchange rate linkage mechanism. Because the openness of capital account and the transition of exchange rate regime are complementary to each other, the relationship between them must be well coordinated.
The short-term goal of the reform of RMB exchange rate regime should make the RMB exchange rate more flexible and constantly improve the managed floating exchange rate regime. The measures include: adjust the volatility of RMB exchange rate and make the market mechanism play an important role in exchange rate’s determination; reduce the proportion of dollar in currency basket and increase the proportion of non-dollar currencies in currency basket; improve central bank’s intervention to foreign exchange market and strengthen the credibility of government. The long-term goal of the reform of RMB exchange rate regime is to achieve free floating exchange rate regime and adopt the“independent monetary policies plus a completely open capital account plus free floating exchange rate regime”model. To promote the reform of RMB exchange rate regime we should: first, strengthen the financial system's stability and accelerate the pace of interest rate marketization; second, improve the foreign exchange market; third, change the targets of monetary policies and establish inflation targeting regime; fourth, further adjust the growth mode of trade and upgrade the processing trade.
Today, China's economy has fully integrated into the world economy. The RMB exchange rate issue has become a focal point in the field of international finance. In the view of our development process, our foreign exchange regime was highly centralized and unified before China’s reform and opening up. And during this period, our foreign exchange regime was entirely determined by the Government and the market mechanism has completely ignored. Between 1979 and 1993, the market-oriented factors gradually appeared in China’s foreign exchange regime. At the same time, the“Dual Exchange Rate Regime”was determined which included the internal trade price and the announced exchange rate. In 1994, the merger of RMB exchange rate regimes achieved and the single managed floating exchange rate regime which was based on market supply and demand was determined too. Actually, Chinese Yuan to US dollar exchange rate had been stabilized at 8.27 for a long time after a slight appreciation during 1994~1996. Therefore, RMB was pegged to US dollar at this stage. July 21, 2005, the PBC issued a public notice, China began to implement a market-based and managed floating exchange rate regime which was regulated by the references to a basket of currencies. And at the same time, the RMB exchange rate to US dollar was one-off revaluated to 102% which marked the RMB exchange rate regime had embarked on a more flexible and more market-oriented path. Nevertheless, the choice problem of the RMB exchange rate regime still exists. And because of RMB is becoming more convertible and the pressure of RMB appreciation is reincreasing, the RMB exchange rate regime should be more flexible or more stable or even return to the fixed exchange rate regime is still very worthy to be studied.
Broadly speaking, the goals of exchange rate regime are same with the goals of the government’s macroeconomic policies and the ultimate goal of macroeconomic policy is to balance a country’s external and internal economy. Therefore, the goal to chose the exchange rate regime is at least to some extent to realize the balance between one country’s external and internal economy. Actually, the RMB exchange rate was pegged to US dollar for a long time since the 1997 Asian financial crisis to“7.21”exchange rate reform. This kind of exchange rate arrangement played a positive role in a more stable foreign exchange market and also developed the trade and attracted more foreign investments. But in recent years, the constraints of the fixed exchange rate regime on China’s economy have gradually become more apparent. In this case, the undervalued real exchange rate has fairly increased the surplus of our international balance of payments and affected the independence of our monetary policies and also made the lagging development of China’s foreign exchange market. After the“7.21”exchange rate reform, the current exchange rate regime is apparently promoting the independence of our monetary policies and the initiative and flexibility of the exchange rate adjustment. And the current exchange rate regime which is promoting the development of China’s economy should be the optimal choice currently.
Actually, China’s current exchange rate regime is a combination of the“central rate”managed floating exchange rate regime and the“BBC”regime and also possesses both the property from the floating exchange rate regime and the fixed exchange rate regime. According to the latest exchange rate regimes classification(IMF, 1999), China’s current exchange rate regime should be categorized to the“Intermediate Exchange Rate Regimes”. In the view of the practices of many countries, with the continuous economic development and openness, some countries’exchange rate regimes transited from the traditional fixed exchange rate regime to those which have a greater fluctuation range and chose the free floating exchange rate regime finally. In contrast, other countries and territories formed a currency union or the“Currency Board”regime. From the theoretical point of view, the first generation of currency crisis theories suggested that it is hard to reconcile the contradictions between the credit expansion from government and the fixed exchange rate regime. The second generation of currency crisis theories placed greater emphasis on market expectations and government’s discretionary policies and demonstrated that any adjustable exchange rate regime between free floating exchange rate regime and monetary union is difficult to sustain. As one of the third generation of currency crisis theories, the“Moral Hazard”theory stressed only the bipolar exchange rate regimes can reduce the super-risk premium to its minimum, therefore, the intermediate exchange rate regimes are not sustainable. And the“Original Sin”theory illustrated that the intermediate exchange rate regimes are not sustainable for“Currency Mismatch”and“Maturity Mismatch”.
Capital account, which is mainly used to record domestic and foreign capital flows, can reflect the changes about one country’s assets and liabilities including the capital flows that relate to loans and investments. And opening capital account means to liberalize capital transactions. In the long run, the RMB capital account openness has its necessity: First, after the accession to WTO, China will phase out the restrictions to the Chinese businesses of foreign institutions. Therefore, foreign banks can indirectly achieve RMB and other currencies totally convertible by the pledge loan between RMB and foreign currencies thus bypass the capital controls in general sense. Second, China’s rapid economic development requires the RMB capital account open. Because of the contacts between china and other countries are increasingly close, strict control of capital account will no longer adapt to the new situation of economic development. Third, China’s rapid economic development and the internationalization of financial services accelerate the internationalization of RMB and the restrictions on RMB capital account will become a yoke. Finally, the openness of RMB capital account will provide opportunities for the reform of China’s financial system and mechanism. Actually, the openness of RMB capital account is an inevitable result and an internal requirement of China’s economic development. At the same time, the independence of monetary policies is particularly important to our economic development. Therefore, in the gradual opening process of the RMB capital account, the choice of RMB exchange rate regimes should be a process with flexibility and marketization and the final choice should be the free floating exchange rate regime. Besides, the M-F model can explain this thesis well. In addition, according to the“Covered Interest Parity”theory, we can differentiate the influences that different exchange rate regimes effecting on the independence of monetary policy in terms of the interest rate and exchange rate linkage mechanism. Because the openness of capital account and the transition of exchange rate regime are complementary to each other, the relationship between them must be well coordinated.
The short-term goal of the reform of RMB exchange rate regime should make the RMB exchange rate more flexible and constantly improve the managed floating exchange rate regime. The measures include: adjust the volatility of RMB exchange rate and make the market mechanism play an important role in exchange rate’s determination; reduce the proportion of dollar in currency basket and increase the proportion of non-dollar currencies in currency basket; improve central bank’s intervention to foreign exchange market and strengthen the credibility of government. The long-term goal of the reform of RMB exchange rate regime is to achieve free floating exchange rate regime and adopt the“independent monetary policies plus a completely open capital account plus free floating exchange rate regime”model. To promote the reform of RMB exchange rate regime we should: first, strengthen the financial system's stability and accelerate the pace of interest rate marketization; second, improve the foreign exchange market; third, change the targets of monetary policies and establish inflation targeting regime; fourth, further adjust the growth mode of trade and upgrade the processing trade.
引文
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①关于这一论证的详细分析参见:袁富华,中国劳动密集型制造业出口和就业状况分析,经济理论与经济管理,2007年第4期,第50-56页。
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①数据来源:《2008-2009年外资银行行业研究与市场分析报告》,2008年10月。
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①吕进中,中国外汇制度变迁,中国金融出版社2006年版,第252-253页。
①各年度详细数据见国家外汇管理局网站:http://www.safe.gov.cn/model_safe/index.html。
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①李婧,中国资本账户自由化与汇率制度选择,中国经济出版社2006年版,第173-174页。
②即指货币局制度、美元化以及货币联盟。
③何慧刚,国际资本流动下东亚汇率制度选择与协调研究,中国财政经济出版社2007年版,第289-290页。
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②吕进中,中国外汇制度变迁,中国金融出版社2006年版,第84-85页。
①常思,外汇账户结售汇实现真正意愿化,中国外汇,2007年第12期,第19-20页。
②李婧,中国外汇市场与资本项目可兑换的协调发展,首都经济贸易大学出版社2007年版,第111-119页。
①吴金宝,人民币均衡汇率研究,中南大学博士学位论文,2006年,第69-70页。
①叶安照,人民币汇率政策的选择——比较固定与浮动汇率制之优劣兼析现行人民币汇率制度改革,改革与战略,2005年第12期,第98-101页。
①关于这一论证的详细分析参见:袁富华,中国劳动密集型制造业出口和就业状况分析,经济理论与经济管理,2007年第4期,第50-56页。
③于学军,从渐进到突变:中国改革开放以来货币和信用周期考察,中国社会科学出版社2007年版,第198页。
①李婧,中国资本账户自由化与汇率制度选择,中国经济出版社2006年版,第163页。
①周宇,人民币汇率机制,上海社会科学院出版社2007年版,第244页。
①李婧,中国外汇市场与资本项目可兑换的协调发展,首都经济贸易大学出版社2007年版,第104-105页。
①Nurkse, R. Conditions of International Monetary Equilibrium. Essays in International Finance 4 , Princeton University Press, 1945.
①主要参考:沙文兵,人民币有效汇率与宏观经济内外均衡研究,经济科学出版社2008年版,第51-56页。
①主要参考:高铁梅,《计量经济分析方法与建模》,清华大学出版社2006年版,第272-275页。
①主要参考:高铁梅,计量经济分析方法与建模,清华大学出版社2006年版,第276页。
①杨惠昶,欧洲货币危机的直接原因与根本原因,社会科学战线,1993年第4期,第48-54页。
②1999年1月1日,欧元正式启用。
①Hausmann, Ricardo, Panizza, Ugo and Stein, Ernesto. Why do Countries Float the Way They Float? [J]. Journal of Development Economics, December 2001, 66(2): 387-414.
①王宇,波兰的退出:渐进的经典,中国经营报,2005年5月16日。
①刘园、王立,中国汇率制度改革的现实选择:波兰模式,浙江师范大学学报(社会科学版),2006年第4期,第1-12页。
②李扬,在浮动汇率制下对汇率实施干预:智利的经验及对中国的启示,国际金融研究,2007年第5期,第17-21页。
①黄志龙,智利汇率制度市场化的进程及其启示,中国金融,2005年第15期,第59-60页。
①刘思跃,泰国金融危机与汇率制度改革,经济评论,1999年第1期,第90-92页。
①赵庆明,人民币资本项目可兑换及国际化研究,中国金融出版社2005年版,第48-50页。
②李婧,中国资本账户自由化与汇率制度选择,中国经济出版社2006版,第119页。
①刘力臻、徐奇渊,人民币国际化探索,人民出版社2006年版,第159-161页。
①数据来源:《2008-2009年外资银行行业研究与市场分析报告》,2008年10月。
②何慧刚,人民币资本项目自由化与人民币汇率制度选择,云南社会科学,2007年第3期,第50-54页。
①李瑶,人民币资本项目可兑换研究,社会科学文献出版社2004版,第230-233页。
①[法]费郎索瓦·沙奈,齐建华等译,金融全球化,中央编译出版社2006年版,第71页。
①何慧刚,资本项目可兑换与汇率制度的互动协调分析,国际经贸探索,2007年第6期,第10-14页。
①吕进中,中国外汇制度变迁,中国金融出版社2006年版,第252-253页。
①各年度详细数据见国家外汇管理局网站:http://www.safe.gov.cn/model_safe/index.html。
①于学军,货币视角——中国宏观经济解读,中国社会科学出版社2008年版,第91页。
②罗丞,人民币汇率制度的改革方向:逐步增加汇率弹性,兰州学刊,2005年第5期,第130-134页。
①沈晓晖,发展中国家汇率制度选择——基于国际货币体系不对称性的视角,中国金融出版社2008年版,第132-133页。
①张明,人民币升值压力卷土重来,中国证券报,2009年10月13日。
①沈晓晖,发展中国家汇率制度选择——基于国际货币体系不对称性的视角,中国金融出版社2008版,第143页。
①李婧,中国资本账户自由化与汇率制度选择,中国经济出版社2006年版,第173-174页。
②即指货币局制度、美元化以及货币联盟。
③何慧刚,国际资本流动下东亚汇率制度选择与协调研究,中国财政经济出版社2007年版,第289-290页。
①阚大学,关于人民币汇率制度的选择问题研究,华中师范大学硕士学位论文,2008年,第37-38页。
①高扬,构建人民币汇率的避风港——中国外汇衍生品市场研究,中国经济出版社2006年版,第98-99页。
①沈晓晖,发展中国家汇率制度选择——基于国际货币体系不对称性的视角,中国金融出版社2008年版,第163-164。
①卢宝梅,通货膨胀目标制的货币政策框架研究,华中师范大学博士学位论文,2008年,第45页。
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