公共债务会计问题研究
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摘要
公共债务是政府会计核算和报告的一项重要内容,它对于评价政府的财务状况、衡量政府的财政风险、制定政府的财政政策等具有十分重要的作用。如何改进我国的政府会计,使之能够提供更加全面,具有更高质量的公共债务信息,是本文研究的重点。
本文的主要内容由以下七章构成:
第1章“导论”。本章主要对论文进行一个简单介绍,具体内容包括研究范畴、研究的理论与现实意义、文献综述、研究的思路与框架、研究方法以及论文的创新之处与不足。
第2章“我国公共债务会计的实践探讨——历史追溯与现状分析”。本章对新中国成立以前和新中国成立以后的公共债务及公共债务会计的状况进行了历史追溯,并对我国当前公共债务会计存在的主要问题进行评析。
第3章“公共债务会计的国际比较与借鉴——对美、英、澳、新、法等国的考察启示”。本章从横向国别比较出发,分析总结了美国、英国、法国、澳大利亚和新西兰等国实施公共债务会计改革的经验和教训。
第4章“公共直接债务会计”。本章通过分析我国在直接债务会计核算方面的缺陷,详细阐述了公共直接债务会计核算及其改革问题。
第5章“公共或有债务会计”。本章运用经济学的基本理论阐释了我国公共或有负债的特点、重要诱因和财政后果;通过介绍澳大利亚、新西兰和美国在公共或有负债报告上的特色,提出了改进我国公共或有债务会计报告实务的政策建议。
第6章“公共隐性债务会计”。本章应用新公共管理理论,引入政府价值维度框架,提出改进我国社保基金核算与报告的相关建议;并提出将地方政府违规借款行为合法化、显性化的若干意见。
第7章“我国公共债务会计的困境、反思及框架体系的构建”。本章在详细分析了我国公共债务会计所面临的困境后,进行反思,并尝试构建了我国公共债务会计体系。
本文的创新之处是:
1、总结了国际会计师联合会(IFAC)和国际货币基金组织(IMF)在公共债务会计方面的研究成果,归纳了美国、英国、法国、澳大利亚和新西兰等国在公共债务会计改革方面的经验和教训,为我国公共债务会计改革提供有益的借鉴。
2、对我国公共直接债务的内容进行分析,并提出具体的会计改革内容和建议。
3、构建财政机会主义和公共或有隐性负债关系模型,分析了财政机会主义和公共或有负债之间的关联性,并在相关研究结论的基础上提出了关于公共或有债务会计改革的对策建议。
4、分析了我国公共隐性负债的内容构成,借鉴国外经验,提出了对我国社会保障义务进行会计核算和报告的具体建议。
5、立足我国的国情,指出了我国公共债务会计所面临的来自制度、文化以及技术等方面的困境。
6、尝试性提出我国公共债务会计体系的框架。
本文的主要观点有:
1、目前我国公共债务会计存在的核心问题是:无法全面、完整地反映公共债务。问题的直接原因在于,我国现行预算会计的核算基础以收付实现制为主,介于收付实现制和轻度权责发生制之间。
2、直接债务是公共债务中内容最为确定,债权人最为明确,计量难度最低的债务,根据循序渐进的改革原则,应将其作为公共债务会计改革的突破口。
3、财政机会主义行为之所以大行其道,与目前政府会计实务缺陷是有密切关系的。
4、改进公共或有负债的会计报告实务,应秉承先易后难的原则,从表外披露入手;遵循重要性原则、谨慎性原则和成本效益原则;以及采用比较以及多维度披露模式。
5、运用代际核算法对当前的社保政策进行较为科学的评价,以补充信息的形式在财务报表外揭示较长时期内我国社保基金缺口变化情况。
6、公共债务会计问题不是一个单纯的技术性问题,它同时还涉及到制度、文化、技术等层面的因素。
7、目前我国公共债务会计面临的问题可概括为两个方面:首要是改革的动力不足(包括内部动力和外部动力);其次是改革的能力不足。
As an important part of governmental accounting and reporting, public liability is of great importance for evaluating government’s financial position, for measuring government’s fiscal risks and for making government’s fiscal strategy. This dissertation is mainly concerning about how to improve Chinese governmental accounting so as to provide more and better information of public liability.
The main content of this dissertation consists of the seven chapters as follows:
Chapter 1: Introduction. This chapter gives a brief introduction to this dissertation, including the research category, the research’s theoretical and practical significance, literature review, the research design and framework, the research methods, innovation and deficiency.
Chapter 2: Probing into the practices of public liability accounting in China——history review and actualities analysis. This chapter reviews the public liability and the public liability accounting before and after the establishment of PRC, and analyses the major problems of Chinese public liability accounting at the present day.
Chapter 3: International comparison and reference in public liability accounting——learning from America, U.K., Australia, New Zealand and France. This chapter is based on the comparison of public liability accounting among the five countries mentioned above, then analyses and summarizes the experience and lessons from such countries as America, U.K., France, Australia and New Zealand.
Chapter 4: Accounting of the public direct liability. According to the analysis of limitations that exist in the public direct liability accounting, this chapter expatiates upon the problems of public direct liability accounting and the relevent revolution.
Chapter 5: Accounting of the public contingent liability. This chapter interprets the characteristics, major inducement and fiscal consequence of Chinese public contingent liability by using the fundamental theory of economics, then puts forward the strategic suggestions upon upgrading the reporting practice of Chinese public contingent liability accounting by introducing the features of public contingent liability reporting in Australia, New Zealand and USA.
Chapter 6: Accounting of the public implicit liability. By using the New Public Management theory, this chapter introduces the framework of government value dimension, and sets forth the relevant suggestions on improving the Chinese social security fund accounting and reporting, then expresses the opinions about legalizing and making explicit of the local government’s borrowing behavior that’s illegal at present.
Chapter 7: Morass, reflection, and framework building of public liability accounting system in China. After analyzing in detail the morass that Chinese public liability accounting faces, this chapter reflects the morass and tries to build the Chinese public liability accounting system.
This dissertation’s innovations are presented as follows:
1. This dissertation summarizes the research achievements of IFAC and IMF in public liability accounting, concludes the experience and lessons that other countries (USA, U.K., France, Australia and New Zealand) acquired, providing useful reference to Chinese public liability accounting revolution.
2. This dissertation analyzes the content of Chinese public direct liability, and puts forward the concrete ideas for accounting revolution and suggestions on revolution.
3. This dissertation builds the model interpreting the relationships between the fiscal opportunism and public contingent implicit liability, analyzes the connection between the fiscal opportunism and public contingent liability, and sets forth some strategic suggestions about the revolution on the public contingent accounting based on the relevant research conclusions.
4. This dissertation analyzes the content of Chinese public implicit liability, refers to the experience abroad, and advances the concrete suggestions about the accounting and reporting methods to Chinese social security obligations.
5. Based on Chinese circumstances, this dissertation points out the morass that Chinese public liability accounting faces coming from institutions, culture and technology, etc.
6. This dissertation tries to build the framework of Chinese public liability accounting system.
The main viewpoints of this dissertation are presented as follows:
1. Presently, the core problems of Chinese public liability accounting lie in its inability to comprehensively report public liability. The direct cause is that Chinese existing budgetary accounting is mostly based on the cash basis , i.e.between the cash basis and the low-grade accrual basis.
2. Direct liability is the liability with most definite content, with most clear creditor, and least difficult to measure among the public liabilities. According to the step by step principle, the direct liability should be treated as the starting point of the public liability accounting revolution.
3. The deficiencies of the current governmental accounting practice have close relationship with the prevalence of fiscal opportunism.
4. In order to improve the accounting report of public contingent liability, the government should start from the easy part then move forward to the difficult part, and begin with the disclosure of off financial statements. The government should observe the principles of materiality, prudence and cost-effectiveness. The government should also adopt the comparative and multi-dimension mode to report the public contingent liability.
5. China should apply generational accounting so as to give a more scientific evaluation to the current social security policy, and should disclose the changes of social security fund’s deficit in a long time by using complementary information of off financial statements.
6. The public liability accounting is not a purely technological problem, it also relates to the institutional, cultural and technological elements.
7. Presently, the problems that Chinese public liability accounting faces can be generalized into two problems. The first one is the lack of revolution’s motivation, including internal motivation and external motivation. The second one is that the capability to run revolution is not enough.
本文的主要内容由以下七章构成:
第1章“导论”。本章主要对论文进行一个简单介绍,具体内容包括研究范畴、研究的理论与现实意义、文献综述、研究的思路与框架、研究方法以及论文的创新之处与不足。
第2章“我国公共债务会计的实践探讨——历史追溯与现状分析”。本章对新中国成立以前和新中国成立以后的公共债务及公共债务会计的状况进行了历史追溯,并对我国当前公共债务会计存在的主要问题进行评析。
第3章“公共债务会计的国际比较与借鉴——对美、英、澳、新、法等国的考察启示”。本章从横向国别比较出发,分析总结了美国、英国、法国、澳大利亚和新西兰等国实施公共债务会计改革的经验和教训。
第4章“公共直接债务会计”。本章通过分析我国在直接债务会计核算方面的缺陷,详细阐述了公共直接债务会计核算及其改革问题。
第5章“公共或有债务会计”。本章运用经济学的基本理论阐释了我国公共或有负债的特点、重要诱因和财政后果;通过介绍澳大利亚、新西兰和美国在公共或有负债报告上的特色,提出了改进我国公共或有债务会计报告实务的政策建议。
第6章“公共隐性债务会计”。本章应用新公共管理理论,引入政府价值维度框架,提出改进我国社保基金核算与报告的相关建议;并提出将地方政府违规借款行为合法化、显性化的若干意见。
第7章“我国公共债务会计的困境、反思及框架体系的构建”。本章在详细分析了我国公共债务会计所面临的困境后,进行反思,并尝试构建了我国公共债务会计体系。
本文的创新之处是:
1、总结了国际会计师联合会(IFAC)和国际货币基金组织(IMF)在公共债务会计方面的研究成果,归纳了美国、英国、法国、澳大利亚和新西兰等国在公共债务会计改革方面的经验和教训,为我国公共债务会计改革提供有益的借鉴。
2、对我国公共直接债务的内容进行分析,并提出具体的会计改革内容和建议。
3、构建财政机会主义和公共或有隐性负债关系模型,分析了财政机会主义和公共或有负债之间的关联性,并在相关研究结论的基础上提出了关于公共或有债务会计改革的对策建议。
4、分析了我国公共隐性负债的内容构成,借鉴国外经验,提出了对我国社会保障义务进行会计核算和报告的具体建议。
5、立足我国的国情,指出了我国公共债务会计所面临的来自制度、文化以及技术等方面的困境。
6、尝试性提出我国公共债务会计体系的框架。
本文的主要观点有:
1、目前我国公共债务会计存在的核心问题是:无法全面、完整地反映公共债务。问题的直接原因在于,我国现行预算会计的核算基础以收付实现制为主,介于收付实现制和轻度权责发生制之间。
2、直接债务是公共债务中内容最为确定,债权人最为明确,计量难度最低的债务,根据循序渐进的改革原则,应将其作为公共债务会计改革的突破口。
3、财政机会主义行为之所以大行其道,与目前政府会计实务缺陷是有密切关系的。
4、改进公共或有负债的会计报告实务,应秉承先易后难的原则,从表外披露入手;遵循重要性原则、谨慎性原则和成本效益原则;以及采用比较以及多维度披露模式。
5、运用代际核算法对当前的社保政策进行较为科学的评价,以补充信息的形式在财务报表外揭示较长时期内我国社保基金缺口变化情况。
6、公共债务会计问题不是一个单纯的技术性问题,它同时还涉及到制度、文化、技术等层面的因素。
7、目前我国公共债务会计面临的问题可概括为两个方面:首要是改革的动力不足(包括内部动力和外部动力);其次是改革的能力不足。
As an important part of governmental accounting and reporting, public liability is of great importance for evaluating government’s financial position, for measuring government’s fiscal risks and for making government’s fiscal strategy. This dissertation is mainly concerning about how to improve Chinese governmental accounting so as to provide more and better information of public liability.
The main content of this dissertation consists of the seven chapters as follows:
Chapter 1: Introduction. This chapter gives a brief introduction to this dissertation, including the research category, the research’s theoretical and practical significance, literature review, the research design and framework, the research methods, innovation and deficiency.
Chapter 2: Probing into the practices of public liability accounting in China——history review and actualities analysis. This chapter reviews the public liability and the public liability accounting before and after the establishment of PRC, and analyses the major problems of Chinese public liability accounting at the present day.
Chapter 3: International comparison and reference in public liability accounting——learning from America, U.K., Australia, New Zealand and France. This chapter is based on the comparison of public liability accounting among the five countries mentioned above, then analyses and summarizes the experience and lessons from such countries as America, U.K., France, Australia and New Zealand.
Chapter 4: Accounting of the public direct liability. According to the analysis of limitations that exist in the public direct liability accounting, this chapter expatiates upon the problems of public direct liability accounting and the relevent revolution.
Chapter 5: Accounting of the public contingent liability. This chapter interprets the characteristics, major inducement and fiscal consequence of Chinese public contingent liability by using the fundamental theory of economics, then puts forward the strategic suggestions upon upgrading the reporting practice of Chinese public contingent liability accounting by introducing the features of public contingent liability reporting in Australia, New Zealand and USA.
Chapter 6: Accounting of the public implicit liability. By using the New Public Management theory, this chapter introduces the framework of government value dimension, and sets forth the relevant suggestions on improving the Chinese social security fund accounting and reporting, then expresses the opinions about legalizing and making explicit of the local government’s borrowing behavior that’s illegal at present.
Chapter 7: Morass, reflection, and framework building of public liability accounting system in China. After analyzing in detail the morass that Chinese public liability accounting faces, this chapter reflects the morass and tries to build the Chinese public liability accounting system.
This dissertation’s innovations are presented as follows:
1. This dissertation summarizes the research achievements of IFAC and IMF in public liability accounting, concludes the experience and lessons that other countries (USA, U.K., France, Australia and New Zealand) acquired, providing useful reference to Chinese public liability accounting revolution.
2. This dissertation analyzes the content of Chinese public direct liability, and puts forward the concrete ideas for accounting revolution and suggestions on revolution.
3. This dissertation builds the model interpreting the relationships between the fiscal opportunism and public contingent implicit liability, analyzes the connection between the fiscal opportunism and public contingent liability, and sets forth some strategic suggestions about the revolution on the public contingent accounting based on the relevant research conclusions.
4. This dissertation analyzes the content of Chinese public implicit liability, refers to the experience abroad, and advances the concrete suggestions about the accounting and reporting methods to Chinese social security obligations.
5. Based on Chinese circumstances, this dissertation points out the morass that Chinese public liability accounting faces coming from institutions, culture and technology, etc.
6. This dissertation tries to build the framework of Chinese public liability accounting system.
The main viewpoints of this dissertation are presented as follows:
1. Presently, the core problems of Chinese public liability accounting lie in its inability to comprehensively report public liability. The direct cause is that Chinese existing budgetary accounting is mostly based on the cash basis , i.e.between the cash basis and the low-grade accrual basis.
2. Direct liability is the liability with most definite content, with most clear creditor, and least difficult to measure among the public liabilities. According to the step by step principle, the direct liability should be treated as the starting point of the public liability accounting revolution.
3. The deficiencies of the current governmental accounting practice have close relationship with the prevalence of fiscal opportunism.
4. In order to improve the accounting report of public contingent liability, the government should start from the easy part then move forward to the difficult part, and begin with the disclosure of off financial statements. The government should observe the principles of materiality, prudence and cost-effectiveness. The government should also adopt the comparative and multi-dimension mode to report the public contingent liability.
5. China should apply generational accounting so as to give a more scientific evaluation to the current social security policy, and should disclose the changes of social security fund’s deficit in a long time by using complementary information of off financial statements.
6. The public liability accounting is not a purely technological problem, it also relates to the institutional, cultural and technological elements.
7. Presently, the problems that Chinese public liability accounting faces can be generalized into two problems. The first one is the lack of revolution’s motivation, including internal motivation and external motivation. The second one is that the capability to run revolution is not enough.
引文
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46仅有上述三次,且收效甚微。
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48这主要是因为 30 年代世界经济大危机,加之中国南京政府债信低下,因此能获得的外国贷款十分有限。
49潘国琪.国民政府 1929～1949 年的国内公债研究[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2003:5.
50清光绪三十一年(公元 1905 年),中国学者蔡锡勇撰著的《连环账谱》,是中国出版的第一部研究复式簿记的专著。
51马陵合.晚清外债史研究[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2005:1.
52度支部就是原来的户部,清光绪三十三年(公元 1907 年),改户部为度支部,其下分设十司,其中会计司掌会计核算及内部审计事宜。
53转引自马陵合.晚清外债史研究[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2005:331.
54同上
55参考王建忠.会计发展史[M].大连:东北财经大学出版社,2003:169-170.
56郭道扬.会计史研究第一卷[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2004:367-371.
57转引自姜良芹.南京国民政府内债问题研究(1927-1937)——以内债政策及运作绩效为中心[M].南京:南京大学出版社,2003:35.
58马陵合.晚清外债史研究[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2005:40-49.
59虽然如此,由于北洋政府后期,地方割据势力日益增大,地方公债的发行实际上未能得到完全控制。
60转引自孙翊刚.中国财政史[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2003:355.
61孙翊刚.中国财政史[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2003:373.
62参考孙翊刚.中国财政史[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2003:427.
63因为实行现金收付制,故借入款和暂收款只能列入收入类科目。
64王建忠.会计发展史[M].大连:东北财经大学出版社,2003:183-185.
65千家驹.旧中国公债史资料(1894-1949 年) [M].北京:中华书局,1984:23.
66这些公债没有印成公债票,它不过以总预约券的方式向银行抵押,再由银行垫款给国民党政府。银行用这种公债预约券作为发行准备,发行不兑现的纸票。到了抗战末期,“国币”发行已成天文数字,国民政府索性直接发行纸币。
67转引自潘国琪.国民政府 1929～1949 年的国内公债研究[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2003:203.
68千家驹.旧中国公债史资料(1894-1949 年) [M].北京:中华书局,1984:3.
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81郭道扬.会计史研究第二卷[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2004:541.
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91IFAC, 2006. IPSAS Adoption by Governments [Z]. http://www.ifac.org/PublicSector/Downloads/IPSAS_ Adoption_Governments.pdf.
92Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board, 2006. Statements of Federal Financial Accounting Concepts and Standards [S]. http://www.fasab.gov/pdffiles/2006_vol1.pdf .
93关于清理成本负债的问题。
94Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board, 1993. Statement of Federal Financial Accounting Standards No.1: Accounting for Selected Assets and Liabilities [A], para.96. In Statements of Federal Financial Accounting Concepts and Standards (June 2006)[S]. http://www.fasab.gov/pdffiles/2006_vol1.pdf .
95Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board, 1995. Statement of Federal Financial Accounting Standards No.5: Accounting for Liabilities of The Federal Government, para.19. In Statements of Federal Financial Accounting Concepts and Standards (June 2006)[S]. http://www.fasab.gov/pdffiles/2006_vol1.pdf .
96转引自葛家澍、林志军.现代西方会计理论[M].厦门:厦门大学出版社,2002:201.
97Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board, 1995. Statement of Federal Financial Accounting Standards No.5: Accounting for Liabilities of The Federal Government [A], pars.22、24、27、28、30. In Statements of Federal Financial Accounting Concepts and Standards (June 2006)[S]. http://www.fasab.gov/pdffiles/2006_vol1.pdf .
98李建发.政府会计论[M].厦门:厦门大学出版社,1999:188.
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101Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board, 1993. Statement of Federal Financial Accounting Standards No.1: Accounting for Selected Assets and Liabilities [A], para.21. In Statements of Federal Financial Accounting Concepts and Standards (June 2006)[S]. http://www.fasab.gov/pdffiles/2006_vol1.pdf .
102Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board, 1993. Statement of Federal Financial Accounting Standards No.1: Accounting for Selected Assets and Liabilities [A], para.136. In Statements of Federal Financial Accounting Concepts and Standards (June 2006)[S]. http://www.fasab.gov/pdffiles/2006_vol1.pdf .
103陈立齐.美国州、地方政府会计准则委员会制定准则[A].载《国库单一账户制度与政府会计改革国际研讨会会议论文》,2006.
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106GASB, 2006. Building a Better Conceptual Foundation [Z]. http://www.gasb.org/plain-language_documents /Elements.pdf .
110Governmental Accounting Standards Board , 2000. Iterpretation No.6: Recognition and Measurement of Certain Liabilities and Expenditures in Governmental Fund Financial Statements [S], para.12.
112Governmental Accounting Standards Board , 1987. Concepts Statements No.1 : Objectives of Financial Reporting [S], pars.56-58.
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128Financial Reporting Advisory Board, 2004. Seventh Report for The Period April 2003 to March 2004 [Z].London: The Stationery Office. http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/ F86/E6/FRAB_seventh_report_280604.pdf , p17.
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131即预算当期净支出必须包括预算偿还的本金和利息。
132财政部会计司.政府会计研究报告[M].大连:东北财经大学出版社,2005:255.
133[德]克劳斯.路德、[英]罗万.琼斯.欧洲政府会计与预算改革[M].大连:东北财经大学出版社,2005:744-745.
134参考财政部会计司.政府会计研究报告[M].大连:东北财经大学出版社,2005:173-174.
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146The New Zealand Treasury. Principles for the development of Crown and departmental accounting policies for external financial reporting [Z]. http://www.treasury.govt.nz/instructions/2.asp, 2007/04/08.
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167IFAC , 1995. PSC Study 6: Accounting for and Reporting Liabilities [Z]. http://www.ifac.org/Store/Details.tmpl? SID=95600191723319&Cart=1169112819291693 , para.014.
168转引自 Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants, 1997. Indicators of Government Financial Condition [Z]. Toronto: CICA.
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186Deloitte. IASB Agenda Project [EB/OL]. http://www.iasplus.com/agenda/converge-ias37.htm,2006-10-05. 值得注意的是,2005 年 IASB 的一份征求意见稿决定弃用“或有负债”和“或有资产”定义,而用“或有事项”来代替。
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201刘尚希、赵全厚(2002)在估算中国政府债务总体规模时,也回避了政府担保项目。
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203截至 1998 年。
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212http://www.treasury.govt.nz/forecasts/befu/2006/59.asp .
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46仅有上述三次,且收效甚微。
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48这主要是因为 30 年代世界经济大危机,加之中国南京政府债信低下,因此能获得的外国贷款十分有限。
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50清光绪三十一年(公元 1905 年),中国学者蔡锡勇撰著的《连环账谱》,是中国出版的第一部研究复式簿记的专著。
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52度支部就是原来的户部,清光绪三十三年(公元 1907 年),改户部为度支部,其下分设十司,其中会计司掌会计核算及内部审计事宜。
53转引自马陵合.晚清外债史研究[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2005:331.
54同上
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58马陵合.晚清外债史研究[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2005:40-49.
59虽然如此,由于北洋政府后期,地方割据势力日益增大,地方公债的发行实际上未能得到完全控制。
60转引自孙翊刚.中国财政史[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2003:355.
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63因为实行现金收付制,故借入款和暂收款只能列入收入类科目。
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92Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board, 2006. Statements of Federal Financial Accounting Concepts and Standards [S]. http://www.fasab.gov/pdffiles/2006_vol1.pdf .
93关于清理成本负债的问题。
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131即预算当期净支出必须包括预算偿还的本金和利息。
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167IFAC , 1995. PSC Study 6: Accounting for and Reporting Liabilities [Z]. http://www.ifac.org/Store/Details.tmpl? SID=95600191723319&Cart=1169112819291693 , para.014.
168转引自 Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants, 1997. Indicators of Government Financial Condition [Z]. Toronto: CICA.
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186Deloitte. IASB Agenda Project [EB/OL]. http://www.iasplus.com/agenda/converge-ias37.htm,2006-10-05. 值得注意的是,2005 年 IASB 的一份征求意见稿决定弃用“或有负债”和“或有资产”定义,而用“或有事项”来代替。
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201刘尚希、赵全厚(2002)在估算中国政府债务总体规模时,也回避了政府担保项目。
202转引自祝拥军.政府或有负债与财政风险[D].首都经济贸易大学硕士学位论文打印稿,2006:32.
203截至 1998 年。
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212http://www.treasury.govt.nz/forecasts/befu/2006/59.asp .
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