重庆市城乡统筹发展的财政风险研究
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摘要
本文以政府调控的财政手段为切入点,以城乡统筹发展理论、公共财政理论和财政风险理论为基础,力求理顺财政支持城乡统筹发展的实现机理及城乡统筹发展中财政风险的内在运行规律,并综合运用多种研究方法,在全面分析重庆城乡统筹发展财政风险的表现形式及其形成原因基础上,探讨重庆财政支持统筹城乡过程中财政风险的预测与控制路径,进而为重庆统筹城乡发展的顺利推进提供相关政策建议。本文研究的主要结论是：
(1)财政支持重庆城乡统筹发展的作用尚不明显,绩效在不同区县存在差异。在运用因子分析法对重庆市及各区县统筹城乡发展的水平进行测度的基础上,基于重庆各区县数据运用面板数据分析方法,分析财政支出对统筹城乡发展水平的影响,并运用DEA方法对财政支持城乡统筹发展绩效进行评价。研究发现,从影响关系来看财政支出对城乡统筹发展的促进作用不显著,从具体绩效米看,尽管整体上近年来重庆市财政政策绩效在增加,但在城乡二元结构突出的落后区县,财政政策绩效依然相对偏低。
(2)重庆城乡统筹发展过程中存在财政风险问题。作为城乡统筹发展的试验区,重庆市相应的财政支持并没有达到促进城乡统筹的要求,相反,在劳动力转移、社会保障、公共教育以及基础设施等领域存在诸多问题,并可能引发财政风险。这主要是因为中央政府与地方政府财政不协调、财政支持的法律体系不完善、农村公共品供给与需求存在矛盾、财政支农结构不合理、财政支农使用和管理效率低以及公共产品的政府垄断等因素造成的。
(3)对财政风险进行有效控制是财政支持城乡统筹发展的重要保障。重庆财政支持城乡统筹发展过程中遭遇一些困境,存在一定的财政风险隐患。在重庆城乡统筹发展的过程中,应该从建立区域风险协调机制、加强法制建设、推进制度创新、强化监督力度等方面化解财政风险,并在市场机制、保障机制、激励机制和约束机制等层面加强对财政风险的防范。
(4)建立平准基金制度,创新重庆城乡统筹发展的财政风险控制模式。重庆城乡统筹发展中财政风险的控制重点要平抑系统性风险。要想阻断财政风险的系统性触发,需要从战略层面进行布局,在预测城乡统筹发展过程中未来的财政系统性风险基础上,通过建立财政风险平准基金制度创新重庆城乡统筹发展的财政风险控制模式,做到“防患于未然”。
本文研究工作的创新主要体现在：
(1)本研究基于财政风险视角揭示了重庆统筹城乡发展中面临的新问题。随着重庆市工业化进程稳步向前发展,重庆城乡统筹发展的过程中显现出一些风险隐患,特别是出现的劳动力转移、社会保障、公共教育、住房保障以及基础设施建设等方面存在一定的财政风险,这在以往研究中并没有系统揭示。本文尝试从城乡统筹发展的内在运行机制、财政支持城乡统筹发展的实现机理与作用范围和方式以及城乡统筹发展中财政风险的形成机理和传导机制等方面,深入地把握城乡统筹发展中财政风险的内在运行规律,并设计实证检验揭示其具体表现。
(2)本研究提出了重庆统筹城乡发展财政风险控制的新思路。财政支持城乡统筹发展是调整城乡居民关系的一个重要手段,但财政支持重庆城乡统筹发展过程中,由于生产关系在旧有束缚强力冲击下面临解构与重组,将不可避免地衍生出一定的财政风险,并呈现高发态势和复杂多变的表现形式,而如何化解与防范财政风险是一项新的课题。本研究评估了重庆市统筹城乡发展中的财政风险,探究了财政风险的形成原因,并在运用人工神经网络预测重庆城乡统筹发展财政风险的基础上,创新风险管理模式,建立平准基金制度制度为基础的新风险控制模式。
(3)本研究构建了重庆统筹城乡发展财政风险预警新模型。在对重庆城乡统筹发展中财政风险进行评价时,由于样本数据存在较多的噪声,相关统计数据质量可能也有所欠缺。而BP人工神经网络模型则可以突破以上数据来源的局限性,经过一定的自学习和训练,能够根据外部环境的动态变化逐步优化训练过程,从而提高处理重庆城乡统筹发展中财政风险数据信息的能力,构建的风险预警模型更具可信性。
Basing on the theory of public finance, the theory of fiscal risk and the theory of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole, this study took the financial means of governmental regulation as a breakthrough point, draw lessons from the mode of foreign countries' experience, and strive to rationalize the implementation mechanism and the internal rules of the fiscal risks of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by financial support, with a variety of research methods. This study first analyzed comprehensively the form and cause of fiscal risk in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by financial support at Chongqing, then explored the prediction and the control path of fiscal risks in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by financial support in Chongqing, so as to provide policy recommendation for the development of urban and rural areas as a whole.
I. Basic Conclusions
1. As for the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by financial support, the effect was not obvious, and the performance was significantly different. We measured the level of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole both in Chongqing and the districts of Chongqing with the method of factor analysis, and analysis the effect of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by financial support with the panel data, then use the method of DEA to evaluate the performance of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by financial support. We found that the role of fiscal spending in promoting urban and rural development was not significant from the point of effect, and in the view of specific performance, the performance of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by financial support remained relatively low in the poor districts where the dual urban-rural structure was obvious, although the overall performance in Chongqing was increasing in recent years.
2. There were many problems of fiscal risks in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by financial support. As the pilot area of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole, Chongqing's financial support did not meet the requirements of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole, while there were many problems of fiscal risks in the fields of labor, social security, public education, and infrastructure, which essentially due to the current uncoordinated relationship between the central government finance and the local government finance, imperfect legal system of financial support, the contradiction between supply and demand of rural public goods, the unreasonable structure of financial support for agriculture, low financial support for agriculture use, the efficiency of management, and the characteristics of monopoly of public goods caused by the government.
3. Risk control is the guarantee of financial support for the development of urban and rural as a whole. There are certain fiscal risks in the development of urban and rural as a whole implemented by financial support in Chongqing. Thus to achieve harmonious development of the urban and rural as a whole, we should defuse fiscal risks by establishing regional risk coordination mechanism, enhancing the establishment of legal system of social security, promoting system innovation, highlighting the supervision to, and strengthen the prevention of financial risk from four aspects such as the market mechanism, guarantee mechanism, incentive mechanism and constraint mechanism.
4. It is advisable to establish a stabilization fund so as to innovate the model of fiscal risks control of the development of urban and rural as a whole at Chongqing. The key method to control fiscal risk the development of urban and rural as a whole at Chongqing is to stabilize the system risk. If we want to block the fiscal risks triggering, we should make a layout from the strategic level to set up the stabilization fund so as to make innovation in the development of urban and rural as a whole at Chongqing basing on the prediction of the future fiscal risk, accomplishing "nip in the bud".
II. The main innovations
1. In the perspective of fiscal risks, this study reveals new problems in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole at Chongqing. With the steady development of the industrialization process in Chongqing, the accelerating pace of urbanization results in some problems and potential fiscal risks in the process of financial support for the development of urban and rural areas as a whole, especially the issues and risks in the aspects of labor, social security, public education, housing and infrastructure protection and other, which in previous studies did not reveal the system. In this paper, we try to constitute a theoretical analysis framework for the research on the development of urban and rural as a whole from three aspects such as the implementation mechanism, scope and methods, and performance evaluation, and the formation and transmission mechanism of fiscal risk in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole, so as to grasp the internal law of fiscal risk in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole deeply, and reveal their specific performance through the empirical procedure and the corresponding empirical test.
2. This study presents the control path of fiscal risks in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole at Chongqing. Financial support for rural and urban development is an important means to adjust the relationship between urban and rural residents, But for in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by the financial support at Chongqing, because of the production relations facing deconstruction and reorganization in the old bound under the strong impact, which will inevitably derived from certain financial risk, showing the trend of high incidence and complicated, it is a new topic to prevent and resolve the financial risk. This study evaluates the fiscal risks of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole at Chongqing, explores the forming causes of fiscal risks, and tries to break through the original frame by establishing the stabilization fund system, making innovation in the development of urban and rural as a whole at Chongqing in the use of artificial neural network prediction of the future fiscal risk.
3. This study established a new risk early warning model in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole at Chongqing. In the evaluation of the financial risk of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole at Chongqing, because of the more noise existed in the sample, the related statistical data quality may be lacking. However the BP artificial neural network model can break these Limitations of data sources, and gradually optimize the training process through learning and training, according to the dynamic changes in the external environment, so as to improve the ability of deal with the fiscal risk data information in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole at Chongqing, what's more, establish a more credible risk early warning model.
(1)财政支持重庆城乡统筹发展的作用尚不明显,绩效在不同区县存在差异。在运用因子分析法对重庆市及各区县统筹城乡发展的水平进行测度的基础上,基于重庆各区县数据运用面板数据分析方法,分析财政支出对统筹城乡发展水平的影响,并运用DEA方法对财政支持城乡统筹发展绩效进行评价。研究发现,从影响关系来看财政支出对城乡统筹发展的促进作用不显著,从具体绩效米看,尽管整体上近年来重庆市财政政策绩效在增加,但在城乡二元结构突出的落后区县,财政政策绩效依然相对偏低。
(2)重庆城乡统筹发展过程中存在财政风险问题。作为城乡统筹发展的试验区,重庆市相应的财政支持并没有达到促进城乡统筹的要求,相反,在劳动力转移、社会保障、公共教育以及基础设施等领域存在诸多问题,并可能引发财政风险。这主要是因为中央政府与地方政府财政不协调、财政支持的法律体系不完善、农村公共品供给与需求存在矛盾、财政支农结构不合理、财政支农使用和管理效率低以及公共产品的政府垄断等因素造成的。
(3)对财政风险进行有效控制是财政支持城乡统筹发展的重要保障。重庆财政支持城乡统筹发展过程中遭遇一些困境,存在一定的财政风险隐患。在重庆城乡统筹发展的过程中,应该从建立区域风险协调机制、加强法制建设、推进制度创新、强化监督力度等方面化解财政风险,并在市场机制、保障机制、激励机制和约束机制等层面加强对财政风险的防范。
(4)建立平准基金制度,创新重庆城乡统筹发展的财政风险控制模式。重庆城乡统筹发展中财政风险的控制重点要平抑系统性风险。要想阻断财政风险的系统性触发,需要从战略层面进行布局,在预测城乡统筹发展过程中未来的财政系统性风险基础上,通过建立财政风险平准基金制度创新重庆城乡统筹发展的财政风险控制模式,做到“防患于未然”。
本文研究工作的创新主要体现在：
(1)本研究基于财政风险视角揭示了重庆统筹城乡发展中面临的新问题。随着重庆市工业化进程稳步向前发展,重庆城乡统筹发展的过程中显现出一些风险隐患,特别是出现的劳动力转移、社会保障、公共教育、住房保障以及基础设施建设等方面存在一定的财政风险,这在以往研究中并没有系统揭示。本文尝试从城乡统筹发展的内在运行机制、财政支持城乡统筹发展的实现机理与作用范围和方式以及城乡统筹发展中财政风险的形成机理和传导机制等方面,深入地把握城乡统筹发展中财政风险的内在运行规律,并设计实证检验揭示其具体表现。
(2)本研究提出了重庆统筹城乡发展财政风险控制的新思路。财政支持城乡统筹发展是调整城乡居民关系的一个重要手段,但财政支持重庆城乡统筹发展过程中,由于生产关系在旧有束缚强力冲击下面临解构与重组,将不可避免地衍生出一定的财政风险,并呈现高发态势和复杂多变的表现形式,而如何化解与防范财政风险是一项新的课题。本研究评估了重庆市统筹城乡发展中的财政风险,探究了财政风险的形成原因,并在运用人工神经网络预测重庆城乡统筹发展财政风险的基础上,创新风险管理模式,建立平准基金制度制度为基础的新风险控制模式。
(3)本研究构建了重庆统筹城乡发展财政风险预警新模型。在对重庆城乡统筹发展中财政风险进行评价时,由于样本数据存在较多的噪声,相关统计数据质量可能也有所欠缺。而BP人工神经网络模型则可以突破以上数据来源的局限性,经过一定的自学习和训练,能够根据外部环境的动态变化逐步优化训练过程,从而提高处理重庆城乡统筹发展中财政风险数据信息的能力,构建的风险预警模型更具可信性。
Basing on the theory of public finance, the theory of fiscal risk and the theory of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole, this study took the financial means of governmental regulation as a breakthrough point, draw lessons from the mode of foreign countries' experience, and strive to rationalize the implementation mechanism and the internal rules of the fiscal risks of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by financial support, with a variety of research methods. This study first analyzed comprehensively the form and cause of fiscal risk in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by financial support at Chongqing, then explored the prediction and the control path of fiscal risks in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by financial support in Chongqing, so as to provide policy recommendation for the development of urban and rural areas as a whole.
I. Basic Conclusions
1. As for the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by financial support, the effect was not obvious, and the performance was significantly different. We measured the level of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole both in Chongqing and the districts of Chongqing with the method of factor analysis, and analysis the effect of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by financial support with the panel data, then use the method of DEA to evaluate the performance of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by financial support. We found that the role of fiscal spending in promoting urban and rural development was not significant from the point of effect, and in the view of specific performance, the performance of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by financial support remained relatively low in the poor districts where the dual urban-rural structure was obvious, although the overall performance in Chongqing was increasing in recent years.
2. There were many problems of fiscal risks in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by financial support. As the pilot area of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole, Chongqing's financial support did not meet the requirements of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole, while there were many problems of fiscal risks in the fields of labor, social security, public education, and infrastructure, which essentially due to the current uncoordinated relationship between the central government finance and the local government finance, imperfect legal system of financial support, the contradiction between supply and demand of rural public goods, the unreasonable structure of financial support for agriculture, low financial support for agriculture use, the efficiency of management, and the characteristics of monopoly of public goods caused by the government.
3. Risk control is the guarantee of financial support for the development of urban and rural as a whole. There are certain fiscal risks in the development of urban and rural as a whole implemented by financial support in Chongqing. Thus to achieve harmonious development of the urban and rural as a whole, we should defuse fiscal risks by establishing regional risk coordination mechanism, enhancing the establishment of legal system of social security, promoting system innovation, highlighting the supervision to, and strengthen the prevention of financial risk from four aspects such as the market mechanism, guarantee mechanism, incentive mechanism and constraint mechanism.
4. It is advisable to establish a stabilization fund so as to innovate the model of fiscal risks control of the development of urban and rural as a whole at Chongqing. The key method to control fiscal risk the development of urban and rural as a whole at Chongqing is to stabilize the system risk. If we want to block the fiscal risks triggering, we should make a layout from the strategic level to set up the stabilization fund so as to make innovation in the development of urban and rural as a whole at Chongqing basing on the prediction of the future fiscal risk, accomplishing "nip in the bud".
II. The main innovations
1. In the perspective of fiscal risks, this study reveals new problems in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole at Chongqing. With the steady development of the industrialization process in Chongqing, the accelerating pace of urbanization results in some problems and potential fiscal risks in the process of financial support for the development of urban and rural areas as a whole, especially the issues and risks in the aspects of labor, social security, public education, housing and infrastructure protection and other, which in previous studies did not reveal the system. In this paper, we try to constitute a theoretical analysis framework for the research on the development of urban and rural as a whole from three aspects such as the implementation mechanism, scope and methods, and performance evaluation, and the formation and transmission mechanism of fiscal risk in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole, so as to grasp the internal law of fiscal risk in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole deeply, and reveal their specific performance through the empirical procedure and the corresponding empirical test.
2. This study presents the control path of fiscal risks in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole at Chongqing. Financial support for rural and urban development is an important means to adjust the relationship between urban and rural residents, But for in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole implemented by the financial support at Chongqing, because of the production relations facing deconstruction and reorganization in the old bound under the strong impact, which will inevitably derived from certain financial risk, showing the trend of high incidence and complicated, it is a new topic to prevent and resolve the financial risk. This study evaluates the fiscal risks of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole at Chongqing, explores the forming causes of fiscal risks, and tries to break through the original frame by establishing the stabilization fund system, making innovation in the development of urban and rural as a whole at Chongqing in the use of artificial neural network prediction of the future fiscal risk.
3. This study established a new risk early warning model in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole at Chongqing. In the evaluation of the financial risk of the development of urban and rural areas as a whole at Chongqing, because of the more noise existed in the sample, the related statistical data quality may be lacking. However the BP artificial neural network model can break these Limitations of data sources, and gradually optimize the training process through learning and training, according to the dynamic changes in the external environment, so as to improve the ability of deal with the fiscal risk data information in the development of urban and rural areas as a whole at Chongqing, what's more, establish a more credible risk early warning model.
引文
① 参见国务院于2004年颁发的《中共中央国务院关于促进农民增加收入若干政策的意见》。
② 参见2008年《中国共产党第十七届中央委员会第三次全体会议公报》。
① Perroux(1955)的增长极理论认为存在一个发展强劲部门因规模优势和创新,其效率高于其他部门的平均水平,会对整个经济发展产生推动作用,这个部门即增长极。但Perroux并没有就增长极的强度差异展开进一步的探讨。
② 产品生命周期理论认为,工业产品处于生命同期的不同发展阶段,即经历创新、发展、成熟、衰退等四个阶段。
① 韦伯之后发表了《区位的一般理论和资本主义理论》,前后两部有关工业区位的论著,奠定了韦伯工业区位论的理论基础。
① 为了便于变量间的比较,以及减少观测量纲和数量级差异的不利影响,本文参照一般的做法,将样本观测数据进行了标准化处理,经标准化后的各变量均值为0,方差为1。
① 原始数据来自历年的《重庆统计年鉴》、重庆市国民经济和社会发展公报,以及《新中国60年统计资料汇编》.。
① 原始数据来自历年的《重庆统计年鉴》、重庆市国民经济和社会发展公报,以及《新中国60年统计资料汇编》。
① 原始数据米自历年的《重庆统计年鉴》、重庆市国民经济和社会发展公报,以及《新中国60年统计资料汇编》。
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② 参见2008年《中国共产党第十七届中央委员会第三次全体会议公报》。
① Perroux(1955)的增长极理论认为存在一个发展强劲部门因规模优势和创新,其效率高于其他部门的平均水平,会对整个经济发展产生推动作用,这个部门即增长极。但Perroux并没有就增长极的强度差异展开进一步的探讨。
② 产品生命周期理论认为,工业产品处于生命同期的不同发展阶段,即经历创新、发展、成熟、衰退等四个阶段。
① 韦伯之后发表了《区位的一般理论和资本主义理论》,前后两部有关工业区位的论著,奠定了韦伯工业区位论的理论基础。
① 为了便于变量间的比较,以及减少观测量纲和数量级差异的不利影响,本文参照一般的做法,将样本观测数据进行了标准化处理,经标准化后的各变量均值为0,方差为1。
① 原始数据来自历年的《重庆统计年鉴》、重庆市国民经济和社会发展公报,以及《新中国60年统计资料汇编》.。
① 原始数据来自历年的《重庆统计年鉴》、重庆市国民经济和社会发展公报,以及《新中国60年统计资料汇编》。
① 原始数据米自历年的《重庆统计年鉴》、重庆市国民经济和社会发展公报,以及《新中国60年统计资料汇编》。
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